第一篇：歐洲難民危機升級

[原創(chuàng)]我們無法應(yīng)付這股洪流！歐洲邊境已經(jīng)無法控制，免簽證旅游區(qū)處在崩潰的邊緣！

小虎很虎2015/9/3 15:08:06收藏 分享 > 6284 歐洲難民危機升級！德國承認它不再能應(yīng)付大量涌入！昨晚邊境控制被重新啟動。德國被迫要求意大利加強邊境管制之后，歐盟的護照自由行區(qū)在崩潰的邊緣。

成千上萬的難民從渡船上出現(xiàn)在希臘首都雅典的街道上，一股無法阻擋的洪流！

難民想要通過警戒線，越過邊境，從希臘到馬其頓，與軍隊發(fā)生劇烈沖突！

敘利亞移民在希臘與馬其頓的交叉邊境，不顧危險爬下陡峭的鐵路軌道路堤。

希臘馬其頓邊境男孩走在軌道上。明天就會到達目的地！現(xiàn)實情況并不像他想的那么簡單！

難民人群聚集在挪威去意大利卡利亞里港口的入口。德國要求意大利在布倫內(nèi)羅，在與奧地利的邊境實施檢查！

一名穿紅上衣、深色短褲的溺亡男童被沖到岸邊，臉部朝下埋在沙中，身體不斷被海浪拍打，讓人看了非常不舍；隨后有警察抱走他的尸體。

該名男童應(yīng)是3歲的艾蘭，他的5歲哥哥加利普和母親蕾哈娜也同樣溺亡，只有父親阿卜杜拉生存下來。

阿卜杜拉庫德人來到太平間!

為他的妻子和敘利亞男孩準備做最后的旅程

心碎的阿卜杜拉！

土耳其官方表示，兩艘滿載敘利亞難民的小船，2日從土耳其博德魯姆出發(fā)要前往希臘的科斯島，雙雙翻覆，23人中12人死亡，包括1名婦女和5名孩童；另救起9人，其中1人送醫(yī)後傷重不治。

在火車站捷克警察用記號筆對兒童寫下數(shù)字！在通往匈牙利和奧地利的火車上拘捕超過200名難民，大多來自敘利亞布雷科夫！

捷克絕大多數(shù)反對收容難民，據(jù)八月調(diào)查當?shù)孛裾{(diào)機構(gòu)集中，百分之93的受訪者表示，他們應(yīng)該返回他們的原籍國。”他們不是紙面上的數(shù)字！他們是人！“面對維權(quán)人士引用倫理方的論述。

布拉格律師馬立克費克根據(jù)法律“我知道這很困難，因為難民沒有文件。民眾認為警察有權(quán)這樣做”

警察與成千上萬的難民陷入對峙！

警察告訴他們沒有有效證件不能登上火車到德國后大約3000名移民正在布達佩斯凱萊蒂站主要入口處對持！

數(shù)百人聚集在布達佩斯市中心凱萊蒂站的入口處！

數(shù)百難民車站外面與警察緊張對峙！大聲呼喊“自由，自由”！

許多人在不斷擴大的人群中發(fā)布懇求的消息，包括這一個：“歐洲幫助“！

在地鐵站附近，許多難民在地下通道等待他們的命運！

當難民等待車站重新開放時，憤怒正在蔓延。不像其他一些歐盟國家，捷克當局認為移民進入該國前應(yīng)該在出發(fā)地發(fā)出庇護的請求！

面對封鎖，大聲高喊“自由，自由”的難民與警察緊張對峙！

抗議中！敘利亞女孩舉起一個“幫助我”牌子！

正在制作阿富汗和敘利亞難民的需求口號！

匈牙利警察在布達佩斯的凱萊蒂火車站外面對難民！

抗議中！阿富汗和敘利亞的難民把孩子裹在毛毯里，提醒他們才剛剛逃離恐怖。

難民要求他們能前往德國!

絕望的難民情緒低落！

小女孩睡在長椅上，他家人已經(jīng)被驅(qū)離！

求救！

難民男孩持有一個簽名，聲稱匈牙利警察拿走了他的錢和護照。

匈牙利警方在一份聲明中說，他們打算在難民數(shù)量繼續(xù)增加的時候到達塞爾維亞增加難民營數(shù)量！

絕望的難民家庭被匈牙利當局從開往奧地利火車的列車上拖走，要帶他們?nèi)ルy民營。

緊張對峙后兩天匈牙利警察從布達佩斯車站撤退，引發(fā)了混亂的場面人群沖進了一列固定的火車，相信他們被允許去奧地利和德國，難民面臨的依然是挫折，附近所有的火車與船全部停用！

第二篇：安吉麗娜朱莉--難民危機

安吉麗娜?朱莉---難民危機

Thank You.I’m very very honor to be here.謝謝，我非常非常榮幸來到這里。

Over 60 million people are displaced today.More than at any time in the last 70 years.That is one in every 122 people.This tell us something deeply worrying about the peace and security of our world.It said that for all other advances this type of human insecurity is growing faster than our ability to prevent or reverse it.現(xiàn)在有超過六千萬的人們被迫離開家鄉(xiāng)，比過去70年的任何時候都要多，每122個人中就有一個。這讓我們對世界的和平與安全表示擔憂，人們的不安全形勢發(fā)展的太快，我們已經(jīng)沒有能力去阻止或扭轉(zhuǎn)這種形勢。

The international humanitarian system is supposed to work on the basis that refugees will be protected largely in camps where they can be given basic food, shelter, education as a temporary measure until they are able to return to their homes.During this time, the exceptional cases of the most vulnerable people can be identified for asylum in a third country and then moved.That is how the system has worked and how it should work.Today we are seeing it break down.Not because the model is flawed or because refugees are behaving differently, but because the number of conflicts and scale of displacement have grown so large.In the past 6 years, 15 conflicts have erupted or reignited.國際人道主義制度運行的基礎(chǔ)是難民們在難民營中受到充分保護，在那里難民們有最基本的食物、庇護所和教育作為臨時保障，直至他們返回自己的家鄉(xiāng)。在這期間，可以認定特別困難的人群在第三國尋求庇護并且定居。這就是國際人道主義制度的運作方式，并且應(yīng)該這樣運作。現(xiàn)在我們看到制度沒有起作用，不是因為制度本身有缺陷或者難民們的行為異樣，而是因為沖突的數(shù)量和難民的規(guī)模已經(jīng)增長得太快了。在過去6年中，爆發(fā)了15起大規(guī)模的沖突，The average time a person will be displaced is now 20 years, 20 years and excel.The number of refugees returning to their homes is the lowest it is bend in 3 decades.Africa has more people displace than ever before, and millions of refugees live without sufficient food or proper shelter let alone education because UN appeals are drastically underfunded.The UNHCR appeal for the Central African Republic for example is less than 3% funded.With this then the state of today’s world is it any surprised that some of this desperate people who are running out all options and who seeing no hope of returning home would make push to Europe as a last resort even at risk of death.現(xiàn)在人們遠離故鄉(xiāng)的時間平均為20年，甚至高于20年，難民們返回故鄉(xiāng)的時間最少也要30年。因為聯(lián)合國的需求極度缺乏資金支持，非洲被迫離鄉(xiāng)的難民數(shù)量比以往都要高，數(shù)百萬的難民沒有充足的食物、合適的住所，更不用說教育了。例如，聯(lián)合國難民署對中非共和國的資助只得到了不到3%的資金支持。就現(xiàn)在的形勢，那些走投無路的人們看不到回家的希望，只能抓住歐洲這最后的希望，哪怕冒著生命危險。

The question is how are we respond as democracies and as an international community to this major test of our values and our resolve.The spotlight has been firmly on Europe, but the crisis in Europe is only a fraction of the global refugee problem and there for the solutions been discussed for Europe are only a fraction of the overall answer.We in the west are neither at the center of the refugee crisis nor for the most parts the one’s making the greatest sacrifice.The majority of the world’s refugees live in country such as Turkey, Pakistan, Lebanon, Iran, Ethiopia and Jordan.So my argument is that unless we address the root causes of the crisis.We will not seen it slowing of the number of refugees crossing borders and in fact quite the opposite.Countries around the world will be ask to do more and more.European nations are current negotiating to resettle 10% of refugees from just one conflict: Syria.Well, other countries are bursting at the scenes with millions of refugees from multiple conflicts.So what we must do first and foremost as citizens is to demand our government show the leadership necessary to address the fundamental courses of the refugee crisis at a global level.This is the wilder picture that I would like to dress today.現(xiàn)在的問題是我們作為民主國家，作為國際社會應(yīng)該如何回應(yīng)對我們的價值和決心的巨大考驗。公眾的注意力一直聚在歐洲，但是歐洲的危機只是全球難民問題的一部分。我們討論的關(guān)于解決歐洲問題的方法只是解決全部問題的一種。我們西方國家既不是難民危機的中心，也未做出最大的犧牲。全球的難民主要分布在土耳其、巴基斯坦、黎巴嫩、伊朗、埃塞俄比亞和約旦。所以我認為，除非我們能從根源上解決問題，否則我們不會看到穿越邊境的難民數(shù)量會減少，事實上還會增加，世界各國的壓力會越來越大。歐洲國家現(xiàn)在在商討重新安置10%的難民，只是從敘利亞一個沖突地區(qū)。然而，其他國家面臨眾多沖突導致數(shù)百萬的難民已人滿為患。所以我們作為民眾首要任務(wù)是：要求政府從國際層面展現(xiàn)出對難民危機必要的解決基本問題的領(lǐng)導力，這是我今天從宏觀層面想表達的觀點。

I know that no one can speak for 60 million displace people, and I know that it is the democratic right of the citizens of each country to reach their own conclusions about the right way forward.I there prefer put my thoughts before you with humility and respect seeking to understand all points of view.On one hand, the refugee crisis has produce great acts of generosity and solidarity with refugees here in Europe and other parts of the world.And on the other hand, fear of uncontrolled migration has eroded public confidence and the ability of governments and international institutions to control the situation.It has given space to a false air of legitimacy to those who promote politics of fear and separation.It has created the risk of a race to the bottom with country’s competing to be the toughest in the hope of protecting themselves whatever it cost or challenge their neighbors and despite their international responsibilities.But since no country can sail itself out from the impact of the refugee crisis such a free for all would lead to an even greater site of problems.It would mount to the worst of both worlds failing to tackle the issue and undermining international law and our values in the process.我知道沒有人可以代替六千萬無家可歸的人說話，我知道這是每個國家公民的民主權(quán)利來通過正確的方法做出自己的決定。我秉持謙遜和尊敬之意，在此闡述自己的觀點，也希望了解各方觀點。一方面，難民危機喚起了眾多在歐洲和世界其他地方對難民的團結(jié)慷慨之舉，另一方面，對無管制移民的恐懼削弱了民眾的信心，以及政府和國際組織掌控局勢的能力。這給那些推動政治恐懼和分裂的人提供了錯誤的合法空間，這恐怕將發(fā)展成為一場逐底競爭，各國競相采取嚴酷手段，為求自保而不顧一切代價，不顧?quán)弴参＃踔林脟H責任于不顧。但是既然沒有國家能免受難民危機的影響，這種混亂會引發(fā)更大的問題，給雙方都帶來最壞的結(jié)果。無法解決問題，破壞國際法律和我們的價值觀。

And there is another factor, at the moment when we need strong collective action, we are questioning our ability to cope with international crisis.I am sure that many people listening feel this.We have watched the events of the last few decades, wanting to see progress, probably feeling that we’re doing our part to make that happen.But after so many years of failed attempts by governments and leaders to do the right thing, we feel angry, we feel cheated, we feel confused.We’re starting to think that maybe it is simply not possible to make a lasting difference.But the worst possible choice we would make is to decide to step back from the world.另一個事實是，在我們需要團結(jié)一致的行動時，我們卻質(zhì)疑自己應(yīng)對國際危機的能力，我相信很多在座的聽眾皆有同感。我們見證了過去幾十年的事件，渴望看到進步，可能也在為取得進步而盡一己之力，但是經(jīng)過這么多年政府和領(lǐng)導人失敗的努力之后。我們感到憤怒，感到受到了欺騙，感到迷茫，我們甚至開始感覺到也許根本不可能做出永久的改變。但是我們做出的最壞的選擇是對這個世界不聞不問。

The last time there was this number of refugees was after World War Ⅱ, when nations came together to forge the United Nations, the UN Charter and Universal Declaration of Human Rights.I believe this is again that once in a generation moment when nations have to pull together.How we respond will determine whether we create a more stable world or face decades of far greater instability.At extremes, the debate about refugees in western nations has been polarized, with on one hand some people calling for open borders, and on the other hand for the complete exclusion of all refugees, or worse, for certain groups of refugees.But policies should not be driven by emotion, by what might be termed as “na?ve humanitarianism” placing the perceived needs of refugees above all other considerations, or by our rational fear and unacceptable prejudice.Instead, we need to find a rational center, rebuilding public confidence and ensuring democratic consent for the long-term approach that will be needed.上一次世界上有這么多的難民是在二戰(zhàn)以后，那時各國聯(lián)合起來成立了聯(lián)合國，頒布了《聯(lián)合國憲章》和《世界人權(quán)宣言》，我相信這又是一個百年一遇的時刻，各國應(yīng)齊心協(xié)力。我們的反應(yīng)將決定我們是能夠創(chuàng)造一個更穩(wěn)定的世界，還是將面臨幾十年更大的混亂。在這種極端的情況下，關(guān)于西方國家的難民討論也走向極端。一方面有人呼吁開放邊境，另一方面，有人要求排斥所有難民或者更惡劣的情況：排斥部分特定的難民。但政策的制定不應(yīng)被這些因素左右，例如感情，將難民的需要置于一切其他考慮之上的所謂的“簡單人道主義”或者合理的恐懼和不應(yīng)有的偏見。相反，我們需要建立一個理性的中心重建民眾信心并保證對所需的長久之計達成民主共識。

I believe each government should make a new compact with its people, setting out what their country can contribute based on an objective assessment of the needs, of the available resources and capacity of local communities to absorb certain numbers of refugees where that is appropriate.It calls for policies which balance the needs of local communities with the needs of refugees.We shall properly fund it, communicate it and implement it consistently over time.The point is every country must do its fair share and no country can abdicate its responsibility.I suggest this should be based on four principles.我認為，各國政府與其人民達成新的一致找到他們可以出力的地方，客觀評估難民需要、可利用的資源以及當?shù)氐某惺苣芰Γ诤线m的地區(qū)接納一定數(shù)量的難民，這需要能夠平衡當?shù)鼐用裥枨蠛碗y民需求的政策。我們要對其長久合理地投入資金、交流溝通、貫徹執(zhí)行。關(guān)鍵在于，每個國家都要公平承擔責任，任何國家都不能逃避。我建議如下四點原則：

First, It is not wrong for citizens in any country faced with the sudden surge of people seeking refugee within their borders to want to know that there are strong processes in place to prevent law and order, to preserve and to protect their security.No one should be crossing a border and not registering and going through asylum process.第一，任何國家的居民面對突然大批涌入自己國家尋求庇護的難民，都有權(quán)知道，有強大的法律和秩序來保護他們的安全。任何人都不應(yīng)在未登記注冊的情況下跨越邊境或進入庇護程序。

Second, it is important to maintain the distinction between refugees and economic migrants.An economic migrant chooses to move in order to improve their lives or livelihoods.Refugees have to move if they’re deceived their lives and preserved their freedoms.However difficult the situations migrants are seeking to escape, however understandable their motivation, there is no blanket human right to resettle in another country.And there is no answer to global poverty and insecurity that involves the mass transfer of people.To put it in another way, all human beings deserve equal human rights.But all people seeking asylum do not have equal grounds for asylum.Everyone must respect the laws and asylum procedures.That said, we must bear in mind that the distinction is complex and must never be used as a way of dismissing migrants who have valid claim for asylum.第二，明確難民和經(jīng)濟移民的區(qū)別十分重要。經(jīng)濟移民選擇移居是為了提高生活水平或為了生計，而難民是在生命受到威脅、自由受到限制時，不得不移居。無論經(jīng)濟移民試圖逃離的環(huán)境多么惡劣，不管他們的動機多么合理，在另一個國家重新定居都沒有完整的人權(quán)。面對涉及大規(guī)模人口遷移的全球貧困和安全問題，我們卻無確切答案。換句話說，所有人都應(yīng)享有平等的人權(quán)，但是尋求庇護的人們卻沒有得到平等的庇護。每個人都必須尊重法律和庇護申請程序，這就是說，我們必須牢記，區(qū)別是很復雜的，但這絕不是拒絕合法申請庇護的移民的理由。

I will add that we would fail the basic test of humanity if we discriminate between refugees on the basis of religion, race or ethnicity.When I meet a refugee I do not see a Muslin refugee or a Christian refugee or a Yazidi, I see a mother, or a father, a son or a daughter, a person within equal right to stand in dignity on this planet.Populations uprooted are the future of their countries.These are decent families registering and waiting peacefully for a chance to return home.And the majority of them are women and children.We should never make them feel like beggars, or worse, like a commodity to be traded between countries, a burden or ever a threat, or that their children are not considered equal to others.Nobody wants to be a refugee.Nobody deserves to be a refugee.And for as long as war, it’s part of the human condition.None of us are immune to becoming refugees.So all refugees merit equal, respect and compassion.另外，如果我們根據(jù)難民的宗教信仰或種族來對聽他們加以區(qū)分，我們將失掉最基本的人性。當我看到一個難民的時候，我看到的不是穆斯林或基督教徒或雅茲迪教徒，我看見的是一位母親、父親、兒子或女兒，一個與其他人享有平等權(quán)利、有尊嚴地活著的人。這些被趕出家園的人是他們國家的未來。這些禮貌的人們申請登記、平靜地等待著重返家園的機會。他們中的大部分人是婦女和兒童，我們永遠不能讓他們感覺自己是乞丐，或更惡劣的國家之間進行交易的商品、負擔甚至是威脅，或他們的孩子低人一等。沒人想成為難民，沒有人應(yīng)該成為難民。只要戰(zhàn)爭存在，這就是人類現(xiàn)狀，我們每個人都有可能成為難民的可能，因此，所有的難民都應(yīng)受到平等對待、尊重和同情。

Third, it would be na?ve to think that we can protect ourselves selectively alone from challenges in the globalized world by pulling away from other countries or peoples.As with any global problem in the 21st century uncoordinated national responses are not the answer and unstable world is an unsafe world for all.And there is no barrier high enough to protect from such disorder and desperation.If your neighbor’s house is on fire, you are not safe if you lock your doors.Isolationism is not strength.Fragmentation is not the answer.Strength lies in being unafraid in working with others and living up to our highest ideals.We must not change who we are because we face a crisis.第三，如果我們認為疏遠其他國家和人民就能逃避全球化世界的挑戰(zhàn)，從而有選擇地保護自己，那將是非常幼稚的。21世紀的任何全球性問題都需要國家之間協(xié)調(diào)解決。對于任何人來說，不穩(wěn)定的世界就是不安全的世界。沒有任何屏障足以抵擋如此混亂和絕望，輔車相依，唇齒相連（城門失火，殃及池魚）。孤獨主義不是力量，分裂破碎不是答案。不畏與他國合作實現(xiàn)最高理想才是力量所在，我們不能因為危機而改變自己。And finally, none of these will be enough unless we address the underlying causes of refugee crisis.Shouldn’t we been asking how to make the world more stable rather than asking how to stabilize a mass of displace people.What are the failures and flows of our international system that are causing the number of refugees grow larger everyday.We need to recognize the decades of broken promises, double standers and partial justice are fundamental part of how we got today’s situation.If we look back and see this many people displaced, and this much conflict and so little accountability then we have to question the source of the problem.最后，除非我們從根源解決難民危機，否則我們所做的一切都還不夠。我們應(yīng)該讓世界更穩(wěn)定，而不是穩(wěn)定大量的難民。到底是國際體系中哪些不足造成難民數(shù)量日益劇增。我們必須意識到數(shù)十年來的違背諾言、雙重標準、部分正義導致我們走到今天這種情況。如果我們回頭看，有這么多人流離失所，有這么多沖突，責任義務(wù)卻少之又少，那么我們不得不質(zhì)疑問題的根源。

When the Security Council member uses its veto when civilians are being killed by their own government or we turn away too soon from a conflict situation or cases refer to the international criminal court and then we don’t give it sufficient support.When we don’t help nations treat fairly in the world so that they can stand on their own.We partially meet UN aid appeal and think that we have achieve something.In all these cases, the consequence is deeper conflict and wilder instability which leads to the type of mass displacement we are dealing with today.If these things continue to happen there will be further displacement and more people on the borders of Europe and elsewhere.The long term answer involves founding our world on laws and accountability.However distant that ideal and genuinely working towards the common interests achieving this will be the work of generations but it underscores why we cannot step back from the effort to build a more stable world beyond our borders and a better future for our children.當安理會成員使其否決權(quán)，當公民被政府殺害或是我們不去面對沖突局面，或是對于涉及國際刑事法院的案子，我們不給予足夠的支持，我們不幫助一些國家受到公平待遇讓他們站穩(wěn)腳跟，我們只是回應(yīng)了一部分聯(lián)合國援助呼吁而且認為自己已經(jīng)有所成就。在所有這些情況下，將導致更深的矛盾和更大范圍的不穩(wěn)定，從而造成我們今天所面臨的大規(guī)模移民的情況，如果這些持續(xù)發(fā)生，歐洲邊界和其他地方將會有更大數(shù)量的難民。長遠的解決方法是建立法律和責任的世界，無論這個理想有多遙遠，都真誠地朝著共同利益前進。實現(xiàn)這個理想需要幾代人的努力，但它強調(diào)了我們?yōu)槭裁幢仨毰⒁粋€超越邊界的更穩(wěn)定的世界，為我們的后代建立一個更美好的未來。

Yes, it is a difficult time in history where there are people bent on violence with no thought for the lives that are ruined by their actions but we have been through tough times and we have faced the worst in humanity on the global scale with people intent on destroying our democracies and we have fought back from that.We have more awareness and we have matched bigger enemies.And if we learn anything from the past, this is what should rally us together, not withdrawing but deciding to come together and show leadership.This is the duty that falls on all of us to the next UN Secretary General, to all governments, to civil society, to every one of us.And whether we succeed we’ll help define this century.The alternative is chaos and further displacement.A world without order and law, and institutions built by our predecessors buckling under the stream of human catastrophe that we could have prevented.是的，現(xiàn)在是一段艱難的時間，因為有人傾向于暴力，毫不關(guān)心被他們毀掉的生命。但是我們曾經(jīng)歷苦難，我們曾面對世界上最慘無人道的事，我們曾面對有人刻意破壞民主，我們都進行了反擊。我們有了更多的認識，也有了更大的敵人。如果說我們從過去學到了什么，那就是我們應(yīng)該團結(jié)起來，絕不退縮，齊心協(xié)力，起表率作用。這是我們所有人肩上的責任，是下一任聯(lián)合國秘書長的責任，是各國政府的責任，是民間社會的責任，是我們每一個人的責任。無論成功與否，我們都會明白混亂和更多難民沒有法律和秩序的世界，我們前輩建立的機構(gòu)屈服于人類災難，這些本都是我們可以阻止的。

Thank you very much!非常感謝！

第三篇：歐洲移民危機

Premier GKFX

Today though we are looking at the Impact of the immigrant crisis on Europe，今天我們來看一下移民危機對歐洲的影響。

This is a thorny subject and one beset with both moral,humanitarian conflict and economic considerations.這是一個燙手的山芋，既有道德和人道主義紛爭，又有經(jīng)濟方面的考量。

However the rise in immigration has now become a major issue in Europe, exaggerated in the past couple of years by the numerous conflicts that have sprung up in the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans which have further accelerated this year.The stream of poignant and heartrending pictures of refugee migrants and their families trying to make their way north after having crossed the Mediterranean or Aegean Sea can have left no viewer untouched.But it also illustrates an age-old truth that on top of those fleeing war and unrest at home these migrants also want to work and simply to build a better quality of life for themselves and their families in a safe far off land.Many have simply walked their way out with only a pitiful handful of possessions or simply the clothes they stand up in whilst others in the professional classes have made the same difficult choice and arrived by more conventional methods.然而，現(xiàn)在移民激增成為歐洲的一個大問題，過去幾年中，這一情況不斷惡化，由于中東、非洲以及巴爾干半島危機，今年的形勢愈加嚴重。難民移民和他們的家人試圖穿越地中海或者愛情海北上，場景十分悲慘、心酸，讓人無不為之動容。但這也解釋了一個古老的真理，在逃離家園戰(zhàn)爭和**的背后，這些移民也希望為自己建立一種更好的生活，為他們的家人尋找一片安全的樂土。不少人只帶上簡單的隨身衣物就上路了，一些職業(yè)階層的人也做了同樣艱難的選擇，采取了更加傳統(tǒng)的方法到達歐洲。

In Europe today that mostly means going to Germany, Scandinavia, Britain and some other places such as the Netherlands by way of the open borders of existing EU members where unemployment levels are low in comparison with the likes of Spain and Greece.Germany, at 4.7%.has the lowest unemployment rate in the whole of the EU whilst Greece has the highest unemployment rate at 25% followed by Spain at 22.2%.在今天的歐洲，通往德國、斯堪的納維亞半島、英國和其他一些國家比如荷蘭，通常的做法是借由現(xiàn)有歐盟國家開放的邊境，那里的失業(yè)率比西班牙和希臘的失業(yè)率要低。德國的失業(yè)率為4.7%，在整個歐盟國家中，失業(yè)水平最低。希臘的失業(yè)率最高，達到25%，西班牙以22.2%的失業(yè)率緊隨其后。

As the free movement of labour is one of the founding principles of the European Union, many migrants will end up where the jobs are and, to some extent, where other migrants from their home region have already settled.This will provide some start-up comfort and support and for many bridge the language barrier of the host country.由于勞動力的自由流動是歐盟建立的基本原則之一，所有哪里有工作，哪里移民就多，并且那里通常有很多來自相同故土的移民已經(jīng)定居下來。這可以在初期提供一些安慰和支持，為東道國緩解一些語言障礙隔閡障礙。

The magnitude of the problem now is enormous.Net long-term migration to the UK(immigration less emigration)was estimated to be 330,000 in the calendar year ended March 2015 whilst at a rough guess, Germany may receive 400,000 to 500,000 more immigrants this year than it expected just six months ago.現(xiàn)在這個問題的重要性不容小覷啦！截止2015年3月，英國的長期凈移民估計有33萬。粗略估計一下，德國今年接收的外來移民會達到40萬至50萬，遠遠超出6個月前的預期。

If so, this would add 0.5%-0.6% to the German resident population.For the EU average as a whole, the increase may be half that scale.如果實際情況真是如此，德國的居住人口將增加0.5%-0.6%。對整個歐洲的平均水平而言，增長的人口將是德國規(guī)模的一半。

The most common nationality by far of those currently arriving in Greece and Italy is Syrian.Other common nationalities are Eritrean, Afghan, Somali, and Iraqi.In most cases they are fleeing civil war, violence and oppression.Those who do make it to the UK are highly likely to be granted refugee status or humanitarian protection.Legally and morally, they are not illegal immigrants, still less “bogus asylum seekers”.But that’s not the whole story by any means: a considerable number are from countries in west Africa, including Nigeria and Ghana.Here the motivations for most are likely to be primarily economic.目前抵達希臘和意大利的外來移民主要是敘利亞人。其他還有厄立特里亞人，阿富汗人，索馬里人和伊拉克人。他們主要是為逃離內(nèi)戰(zhàn)，暴力和壓迫。那些成功到達英國的人，很可能被授予難民身份，或給予人道主義保護。在法律和道義上，他們不是非法移民，也不是“虛假的尋求庇護者”。但無論如何，這也不是整個事情的全貌：還有相當數(shù)量的人來自西非國家，包括尼日尼亞和加納。這里，多數(shù)人的動機可能主要出于經(jīng)濟上的考慮。

The EU needs to formulate some common response now, and quickly.These should include: a clearer foreign policy designed to stabilise Syria and Libya.The EU should also urge Turkey to play a fully constructive role.And the EU should put serious financial pressure on Eritrea to reform itself like next-door Ethiopia.現(xiàn)在歐盟需要制定一些通用的應(yīng)對措施，并且要快。這些措施包括一個更加明朗的外交政策，旨在穩(wěn)定敘利亞和利比亞。歐盟也敦促土耳其充分發(fā)揮建設(shè)性的作用。歐盟還應(yīng)該對厄立特里亞施加嚴肅的財政壓力，促使其像其鄰國埃塞俄比亞一樣，進行改革。

The EU also needs a common definition as to who qualifies as a refugee and who can be sent back fast to safe countries of origin.A quota system to distribute refugees makes sense to process their claims fast.歐盟也需要一個統(tǒng)一的定義，以區(qū)分誰有資格作為難民，以及誰可以被快速安全地送回原籍國。按配額制度實施難民分配，對于快速處理難民請求還是非常有幫助的。

But those who are accepted may ultimately move to where the jobs are and not respect an initial quota distribution between, say, Germany and Hungary or Britain and France for very long.但那些被接收的難民可能最終前往有工作的地方，并不遵從最初的配額分配，比如在德國和匈牙利之間，或英國和法國之間。

So what economic benefits are likely? Well migration does represent a small stimulus to aggregate demand.Economists estimate that extra spending on migration-related issues may amount to 0.3% to 0.4% of annual GDP in Germany.Similar results could be expected in a few other countries like Britain or the Netherlands.Some countries may even use immigration as a reason to exceed fiscal targets.那么，這會給經(jīng)濟帶來哪些實惠呢？妥善處理的外來移民確實會給總需求帶來一點小小的激勵。經(jīng)濟學家預測，與移民問題相關(guān)的額外開支在德國年GDP中占據(jù)0.3%-0.4%的份額。其他國家，比如英國或者荷蘭，情況也大致相似。還有些國家甚至可能以外來移民作為理由，超額實現(xiàn)財政目標。

On balance, the result could be a near-term stimulus to demand of some 0.2% of Eurozone GDP for the current half of 2015 and probably the same for 2016.總之，這一結(jié)果可能對需求有短期的刺激作用，對2015年上半年而言，在歐元區(qū)GDP中的貢獻占據(jù)0.2%，也許2016年也是如此。

Longer term as the refugees integrate and work the GDP benefits will be greater.The consultancy Oxford Economics, for example, estimates that the inflow of refugees into Germany may add 0.6% to GDP by the end 2020 and cut inflationary pressures by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%.長期來看，隨著難民的與當?shù)厝诤霞熬蜆I(yè)，GDP貢獻率會更高。比如，咨詢公司牛津經(jīng)濟研究院估計，流入德國的難民，截止到2020年年底，會為GDP貢獻0.6%的增長，并把通脹壓力縮減0.2個百分點，下降到1.6%。

Oxford Economics say their numbers do take into account the argued negative side of large scale immigration surges such as Housing shortages , rising rents , increased burdens on the social services , hospitals , schools , policing, not to mention the impact on initial unemployment, and costs to the taxpayer in benefits payments.該研究院還表示，這一數(shù)據(jù)也涵蓋了大量移民涌入的消極影響，比如住房短缺，租金上漲，社會服務(wù)、醫(yī)院、學校、警力負擔加重、更別提這些因素對初始失業(yè)的影響，及其對納稅人福利支付的成本影響等。

These shorter term factors could also have an impact levels of government taxation and with it their ability to meet their short to medium term debt targets.這些短期因素對政府稅收也有一個影響級別，以及在此影響下，政府滿足其短期和中期債務(wù)目標的能力。

That generalization made, however, it is also clear that no simple or single policy response can be appropriate.Clearly, the impact that this latest crisis will depend upon its length and depth, and this is still largely unknown and here lies the major difficulty in arriving at an assessment of the impact of the crisis on migration which is the lack of reliable and timely data.然而，也很清楚地是，簡單單一的政策反應(yīng)是不合適的。顯然，最近這次危機的影響將取決于危機的深度和廣度，現(xiàn)在仍不得而知，目前的主要困難在于評價移民危機的影響，但仍缺乏及時可靠的數(shù)據(jù)。

Everything depends on how quickly the refugees are processed and allowed to work.And given language training.一切都取決于難民能否快速得到安置并允許難民開始工作。還有給難民進行語言培訓。

One of the ironies about Europe’s state of panic about migration across the Mediterranean is that for a number of years policymakers have been warning that Europe’s population is ageing and, in many countries, shrinking.The EU’s total fertility rate is just over 1.5 – you don’t need to be a demographer to work out the long-term implications.If it weren’t for migration, the EU’s working-age population would already be shrinking.歐洲對于跨越地中海的移民持恐慌態(tài)度，而歐洲的政策制定者多年來一直嚷著歐洲多國人口正在老齡化，在萎縮，這真的是頗具諷刺意義。歐洲的整體生育率才剛剛超過1.5，你不需要成為人口學家也能算出這其中的長期含義。要不是外來移民，歐洲的勞動年齡人口應(yīng)該已經(jīng)萎縮了。

Last year, deaths exceeded births in both Greece and Italy – where the vast majority of the migrants arrived – and in Germany, where the largest number end up.Like that of the UK, Germany’s economy is creating jobs faster than the natives can fill them.去年，希臘和意大利的死亡率超過出生率，現(xiàn)在大批的移民去了希臘和意大利，然而最終在德國安定下來的最多。與英國相比，德國創(chuàng)造工作崗位的速度大于其崗位填補的速度。

But to realise this supply potential for GDP growth it is vital that recipient countries keep their labour markets flexible and upgrade their education systems.但要這種潛在的供給實現(xiàn)對GDP增長的貢獻，接收國一定要保持勞動力市場的靈活性，并升級教育體系。

These refugees have taken huge risks to get to Europe.And arguably these refugees often tend to be more entrepreneurial people.Otherwise, why would they have fled? They should be a net long term gain for an economy, not a burden.為了抵達歐洲，這些難民也承受了巨大的風險。但無可爭辯的是，這些難民通常更具有創(chuàng)業(yè)精神。否則，他們?yōu)槭裁匆与x呢？對一個經(jīng)濟體而言，他們應(yīng)該是長期的凈收益，而不是負擔。

As a British economist we can’t help thinking of the enormous benefits the UK economy has gained over time from the influx of refugees.One only has to think of the Jews fleeing Nazi persecution or the Asian refugees from Uganda.Both groups became highly productive and useful members of British society.And, their descendants are still building on the previous generations heritage today.The worst possible policy response for governments like Germany or Britain would be to tighten employment laws.These two countries are a draw for immigrants thanks to their recent labour market dynamics.Though it is clear that populist opinion is hampering the decision making by respective their governments who are clearly trying to do the right by the humanitarian issues whilst seeking to placate those at home who fear for their own employment and standards of living.作為一個英國經(jīng)濟學家，我禁不住想到一段時間后，難民的涌入對英國經(jīng)濟的巨大好處。你只要想想猶太人逃離納粹，或者亞洲人逃離烏干達，就知道了。這兩類人都成為英國社會的優(yōu)秀成員，產(chǎn)出很高。他們的后代也在繼承先輩的基礎(chǔ)上，為社會做出新的貢獻。政府可能做出的最壞的政策反應(yīng)，比如德國政府或英國政府，可能就是收緊勞動法。由于其勞動力市場的近期動態(tài)，德國和英國倒是吸引不少移民。顯然，盡管民粹主義的觀點妨礙了各自政府的決定，政府顯然試圖做出正確人道的決策，并試圖安撫那些在家里擔心自己就業(yè)狀況和生活水平的人。

They are treading a very fine line here because if Britain and Germany make it more difficult to create jobs, they could store-up enormous social trouble for the future.For example, raising minimum wages and tightening rules for temporary work contracts would not seem to be the right policies when you have a rising level of immigrants.他們也是在走鋼絲，因為如果英國和德國難以創(chuàng)造更多的就業(yè)崗位，那他們就給未來埋下大量的社會問題。比如，當移民水平不斷上升時，提高最低工資水平，嚴格臨時工作合同，似乎就不太明智了。

Immigration is a very contentious issue.It touches upon fundamental questions of culture and national identity.移民問題確實非常棘手。它涉及到文化和民族認同上的基本問題。

A rise in immigration as we have seen only too well in the last UK election campaign often triggers some right-wing populist backlash.Governments should do their utmost to avoid this happening.在過去英國的競選活動中，移民增加通常激發(fā)右翼民粹主義的回歸。政府應(yīng)盡量避免右翼民粹主義的回歸。

But the bigger story in Europe remains that the Eurozone economy is now creating jobs at a reasonable rate.France currently is an exception to this.But, so long as Europe does not get its policy response badly wrong, Europe can cope with the economic and political impact of immigration.但是歐洲的大背景依然是歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟正以合理的速度創(chuàng)造工作崗位。當然，法國例外。但是，只要歐洲的政治反應(yīng)不要錯得太離譜，歐洲依然能解決好移民問題的經(jīng)濟影響和政治影響。

Perhaps the most important lesson to be learned here is the need to distinguish long-term from short-term trends in the migration and development nexus.Clearly EU governments need to continue to prepare for the migrants they need The current thinking and data on migration in general tends to be problematic and this is even starker in the current climate coming as it has amidst the global economic slowdown and with governments in the developed world struggling to keep their respective economies float.The EU needs to work quickly now or the continuing levels of dissention will eat like a cancer into the very heart of the Union and the new found levels of confidence in the euro will quickly erode once gain putting the currency under threat once more.As we have noted in previous reviews on the Greek crisis the fate of the single currency remains under threat and has most bank research analysts looking for parity with the dollar within the next twelve months This is primarily because more QE will be needed for longer to help the Eurozone economy grow again.This also means interest rates will also remain low as the ECB battles to inject more life into the Eurozone economy.But while this is going on US growth is likely to remain steady to possibly rising further despite the recent anxiety over last week’s Fed decision to keep rates on hold for at least another month or so.In this environment then a decisive and coordinated action plan over the immigrant issue can only help to restore some much needed confidence in the market all round.也許，這里最重要的教訓，是需要區(qū)分移民和發(fā)展關(guān)系中的長期趨勢和短期趨勢。顯然，歐洲政府要繼續(xù)為他們需要的移民做準備。目前關(guān)于移民的想法和數(shù)據(jù)，總體來說，是有問題的，甚至在當前背景下看是刻板的，因為歐洲也處于全球經(jīng)濟下滑的大背景下，發(fā)達國家的政府也正努力保持各自的經(jīng)濟浮動。歐洲現(xiàn)在必須要行動快，否則分歧的持續(xù)升級會像癌癥一樣侵蝕歐盟的心臟，歐元新建起來的信心也將再次迅速消失，讓歐元再一次受到威脅。我們在前幾期希臘危機的評論中指出，單一貨幣的命運依然受到威脅，多數(shù)銀行的研究員都預計未來12個月里，歐元兌美元將跌至平價。這主要是因為歐洲經(jīng)濟的再次增長需要更多的量化寬松支持。這也表明利率將繼續(xù)保持低位，因為歐洲央行意欲給歐洲經(jīng)濟注入更多活力。但與此同時，美國經(jīng)濟可能依然穩(wěn)定，也可能進一步增長，盡管擔心上周美聯(lián)儲決定把利率不變的狀態(tài)至少再維持一個月或更久。在此背景下，針對移民問題作出一個果斷和協(xié)調(diào)一致的行動計劃只能有助于重拾市場必須的一些信心。

This has been Alex Heath reporting to you for GKFX

這就是本期的Alex Health 視頻報道。

Goodbye and….Thanks for watching

再見，感謝您的觀看。

第四篇：沃爾瑪誠信危機升級

沃爾瑪誠信危機升級

? 日期:20111014

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? 作者： 來源：經(jīng)濟導報 【 查看PDF版】

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◆導報記者 邵好 濟南報道

出售假冒“綠色豬肉”的重慶沃爾瑪或?qū)⒚媾R嚴厲懲處。9日，重慶市食品安全工作新聞發(fā)布會宣布，當日起，沃爾瑪在重慶的10家分店將陸續(xù)接受15天的停業(yè)整頓處罰。其中，7家分店已于9日停業(yè)，其余3家待調(diào)查取證完成后再予以實施。對此，沃爾瑪官方表示，已經(jīng)同意重慶市工商局作出的處罰決定，決定將沃爾瑪在重慶當?shù)氐?3家門店全部暫停營業(yè)15天。“沃爾瑪?shù)默F(xiàn)象并非個案，其他超市可能也存在類似問題。沃爾瑪?shù)谋魂P(guān)注度比較高，且暴露出的問題在行業(yè)內(nèi)的影響也比較大。”13日，中國人民大學商學院營銷系副教授牛海鵬接受經(jīng)濟導報記者采訪時表示。涉案37人罰款269萬元12日，導報記者在沃爾瑪濟南泉城路店采訪時發(fā)現(xiàn)，“綠色豬肉”并沒有在濟南沃爾瑪超市內(nèi)銷售。“濟南沃爾瑪沒有賣過綠色豬肉。”該店生鮮部工作人員告訴導報記者。在該工作人員的指引下，導報記者看到，肉類產(chǎn)品專區(qū)內(nèi)擺放著兩個品牌的豬肉產(chǎn)品，分別為普通豬肉和“無公害豬肉”，均沒有“綠色豬肉”。一位濟南市民也告訴導報記者，并未在該沃爾瑪超市見過“綠色豬肉”。今年9月初，沃爾瑪重慶分店被指銷售假冒“綠色豬肉”。在相關(guān)部門的調(diào)查下，重慶沃爾瑪出售假冒綠色豬肉的行為被曝光：自去年1月以來，重慶沃爾瑪鳳天分店、松青路分店等多家分店以普通豬肉冒充“綠色食品”豬肉對外銷售，涉案銷售金額190萬余元。事發(fā)后，重慶市工商局依法沒收其違法所得，并處罰款269萬元。12日，重慶警方打假總隊通報稱，由于涉嫌用普通豬肉假冒“綠色豬肉”銷售，欺騙消費者，沃爾瑪“重慶事件”涉案人員已達37人。其中，已有25人被刑事拘留，2人被逮捕，7人被監(jiān)視居住，另有3人被取保候?qū)彙Ｖ档米⒁獾氖牵@并不是沃爾瑪?shù)谝淮问芰P，入駐重慶5年來，沃爾瑪多家門店因銷售過期食品、不合格食品和虛假宣傳等行為，累計已被工商部門處罰21次，僅今年就被處罰了9次。管理不嚴漏洞頻出

“或許沃爾瑪并非為了利益有意欺詐、做假，畢竟這是一家全球性企業(yè)，問題曝光后會對其信譽和形象產(chǎn)生不利影響，而通過做假帶來的利潤并不大。”牛海鵬說。牛海鵬認為，沃爾瑪多次受罰問題出在管理上，其在進貨檢驗、商品管理等問題上可能存在漏洞。因為管理制度本土化不徹底等，不能及時發(fā)現(xiàn)和避免管理漏洞。沃爾瑪作為零售商，所售產(chǎn)品大部分并非自產(chǎn)，雖然問題出現(xiàn)在銷售環(huán)節(jié)，但是牛海鵬認為應(yīng)當反思和考問整個商品流通鏈條。“從生產(chǎn)到流通，每個環(huán)節(jié)都應(yīng)當嚴格把關(guān)。產(chǎn)品出現(xiàn)問題，上下游都不能推卸責任。”他說。牛海鵬認為，相關(guān)的監(jiān)管部門也應(yīng)該對此作出反思。突擊檢查應(yīng)當變?yōu)榻?jīng)常性、持續(xù)性監(jiān)督，及時發(fā)現(xiàn)問題。

第五篇：歐洲債務(wù)危機模擬希臘發(fā)言

近年爆發(fā)的歐洲債務(wù)危機在歷經(jīng)幾次跌宕起伏後進入了暫時平穩(wěn)狀態(tài)。在這次危機中，不只歐元區(qū)，甚至全球經(jīng)濟都籠罩在陰霾之下。而我國希臘，受到了重大衝擊，爲了走出陰霾，推出一系列經(jīng)濟改革措施已是刻不容緩。應(yīng)對這一危機，首先要推行國內(nèi)的改革。然而，兩年來的大力度緊縮措施未見成效，反引發(fā)了國民的反感情緒，令社會動蕩。因此，在新一輪的改革當中，我國將採取較為緩和的緊縮措施，具體如裁減公務(wù)員薪金，以內(nèi)閣官員為首減薪三成，以減少政府開支。第二，政府亦將會致力於打擊貪污、嚴查偷逃欠稅，例如成立獨立稅務(wù)調(diào)查組，或召開專門會議等。此舉可望為國庫增加超過100億歐元收入，並使企業(yè)開支可以真正投放於提升營運收益。第三，我國會重整國內(nèi)現(xiàn)正處於困難局面的金融體系，例如鼓勵銀行合併或暫時國有化銀行，將規(guī)模做大，增加資金流動性，提升競爭力，從而達到海外融資的條件，獲取更多融資機會與發(fā)展資金。更重要的，我國也將從‘開源’方面著手，大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)，重振本土經(jīng)濟。以佔國民生產(chǎn)總值最大比例，逾15%的旅遊業(yè)為例，我國將善用擁有豐富旅遊資源這項優(yōu)勢，配以希臘古典文化作為賣點，向世界各地推廣希臘旅遊業(yè)，並以提升旅遊業(yè)的國民生產(chǎn)總值百分比至20%為目標。我國更將會透過改善旅遊配套（如興建綜合渡假區(qū)、郵輪碼頭以及提升酒店業(yè)服務(wù)質(zhì)素）帶動各類周邊產(chǎn)業(yè)，如零售業(yè)、運輸業(yè)、建造業(yè)等，從而刺激經(jīng)濟並降低失業(yè)率。

然而以我國目前的經(jīng)濟狀況，單憑一己之力並不足以克服這一難題，因此外界的援助必不可缺。為此，我國將增加與世界各國及歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織的接觸，尋求及爭取更多的資金援助，並申請歐洲穩(wěn)定機制，以獲取緊急貸款。我國亦希望通過與各界商討，修改原有債務(wù)條款，放鬆援助條件，例如將歐盟及國際貨幣基金組織的赤字控制期限延遲兩年，以便繼續(xù)發(fā)行債券作融資。

雖然各界目前對希臘的經(jīng)濟前景態(tài)度並不樂觀，但正所謂 ?山重水復疑無路，柳暗花明又一村?，我們相信憑著新一輪經(jīng)濟改革措施，輔以各界的援助，我國的財政赤字必將慢慢縮小，債務(wù)水平亦將逐步降低。我們會竭盡所能，為希臘，也為全球經(jīng)濟的未來創(chuàng)造轉(zhuǎn)機。

在全球化的大背景下，各國經(jīng)濟可謂牽一髮，動全身, 歐洲一體化更是不能逆轉(zhuǎn)。如果希臘步冰島之後塵，甚至退出歐元區(qū)，將會使債權(quán)國損失上千億歐元，並引起市場新一輪信心危機，使各國債務(wù)危機惡化；那樣的結(jié)果，相信也絕非各國所樂見。希臘會盡最大的努力，做好本份，也希望可以得到各國的援助和支持。