翻譯：向北遷徙

全球海洋溫度影響某些海洋生物的棲息地質(zhì)量。當(dāng)溫度變化太大以至于無法繼續(xù)生長時，這些物種便開始尋找其他更適合其現(xiàn)在和將來的生活和生殖成功的棲息地。其中一個明顯的例子就是美國緬因州的龍蝦種群，該種群正緩慢地向北遷徙到加拿大，那里較低的海洋溫度提供了更合適的棲息地。這種地理上的種群遷移會嚴(yán)重破壞依賴海洋生物物種穩(wěn)定性的公司的生計。

您的團隊已被蘇格蘭北大西洋漁業(yè)管理協(xié)會聘為顧問。如果全球海洋溫度升高，該財團希望更好地了解與蘇格蘭鯡魚和鯖魚從其目前在蘇格蘭附近的棲息地遷徙有關(guān)的問題。這兩種魚類是蘇格蘭漁業(yè)的重要經(jīng)濟來源。鯡魚和鯖魚種群位置的變化可能使以蘇格蘭為基地的小型捕撈公司在經(jīng)濟上造成不確定風(fēng)險，后者使用沒有船上制冷的漁船來捕撈鮮魚并將其運送到蘇格蘭漁港的市場。

1. 建立一個數(shù)學(xué)模型，以識別未來50年內(nèi)這兩種魚類最可能的位置，假設(shè)水溫將發(fā)生足夠的變化以導(dǎo)致種群移動。

2. 根據(jù)海水溫度變化的速度，使用您的模型預(yù)測最佳情況、最壞情況和最有可能經(jīng)過的時間，直到這些種群距離小漁業(yè)公司太遠(yuǎn)以至于如果小漁業(yè)公司繼續(xù)在其當(dāng)前位置外作業(yè)將一無所獲。

3. 根據(jù)您的預(yù)測分析，這些小型捕撈公司是否應(yīng)該改變其經(jīng)營方式？

• a.如果是，請使用您的模型為小型捕撈公司識別和評估實用且經(jīng)濟上有吸引力的策略。您的策略應(yīng)考慮但不限于現(xiàn)實的選擇，包括：

• 將部分或全部捕撈公司的資產(chǎn)從蘇格蘭港口的當(dāng)前位置遷移到兩個魚類種群都遷徙的附近；

• 使用一定比例的小型漁船，這些漁船可以在沒有陸上支持的情況下運行一段時間，同時仍確保漁獲物的新鮮度和高質(zhì)量。

• 您的團隊可以識別和模擬的其他可能的選項。




• b.如果您的團隊拒絕進(jìn)行任何更改，請根據(jù)建模結(jié)果來說明拒絕的原因，因為建模結(jié)果與您的團隊所做的假設(shè)有關(guān)。

4.使用您的模型來解決:如果有一部分漁業(yè)移至另一個國家的領(lǐng)海時您的建議受到的影響。

5.除了技術(shù)報告外，還要為 Hook Line and Sinker 雜志準(zhǔn)備一份長達(dá)兩頁的文章，以幫助漁民了解問題的嚴(yán)重性以及您提出的解決方案將如何改善他們的未來的業(yè)務(wù)前景。

您的提交應(yīng)包括：

• 一頁摘要表

• 目錄

• 一頁至兩頁的雜志文章

• 您的解決方案不超過20頁，最多包含摘要，目錄和文章的24頁。

注意：參考列表和任何附錄均不計入頁數(shù)限制，應(yīng)在完成解決方案后顯示。您不應(yīng)使用受版權(quán)法限制使用的未經(jīng)授權(quán)的圖像和材料。要確保您引用的想法的來源和報告中使用的材料。

• 漁業(yè)：特定種類的魚類及其棲息區(qū)域的集合。

• 棲息地：生物或團體正常生活或發(fā)生的環(huán)境類型。

• 小型捕撈公司：從事商業(yè)捕撈的公司，其資金來源非常有限或者用于購買新設(shè)備/船只的財務(wù)資源非常有限

• 領(lǐng)海（海洋）：“根據(jù)1982年《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》的定義，是一條沿基線延伸最多 12 海里（22.2公里；13.8 英里）的沿海水帶（通常是指低水位線）。領(lǐng)海被視為國家的主權(quán)領(lǐng)土，盡管允許外國船只（軍用和民用）無害通過該海，或過境海峽； 這種主權(quán)也延伸到上方的空域和下方的海底。”

Global ocean temperatures affect the quality of habitats for certain ocean-dwelling species.When temperature changes are too great for their continued thriving, these species move to seek other habitats better suited to their present and future living and reproductive success.One example of this is seen in the lobster population of Maine, USA that is slowly migrating north to Canada where the lower ocean temperatures provide a more suitable habitat.This geographic population shift can significantly disrupt the livelihood of companies who depend on the stability of ocean-dwelling species.Your team has been hired as consultants by a Scottish North Atlantic fishery management consortium.The consortium wants to gain a better understanding of issues related to the potential migration of Scottish herring and mackerel from their current habitats near Scotland if and when global ocean temperatures increase.These two fish species represent a significant economic contribution to the Scottish fishing industry.Changes in population locations of herring and mackerel could make it economically impractical for smaller Scotland-based fishing companies, who use fishing vessels without on-board refrigeration, to harvest and deliver fresh fish to markets in Scotland fishing ports,

1. Build a mathematical model to identify the most likely locations for these two fish species over the next 50 years, assuming that water temperatures are going to change enough to cause the populations to move.
   

2. Based upon how rapidly the ocean water temperature change occurs, use your model to predict best case, worst case, and most likely elapsed time(s)until these populations will be too far away for small fishing companies to harvest if the small fishing companies continue to operate out of their current locations.
   

3. In light of your predictive analysis, should these small fishing companies make changes to their operations?
   

• a.If yes, use your model to identify and assess practical and economically attractive strategies for small fishing companies.Your strategies should consider, but not be limited to, realistic options that include:

• Relocating some or all of a fishing company’s assets from a current location in a Scottish port to closer to where both fish populations are moving;

• Using some proportion of small fishing vessels capable of operating without land-based support for a period of time while still ensuring the freshness and high quality of the catch.

• Other options that your team may identify and model.




• b.If your team rejects the need for any changes, justify reasons for your rejection based on your modeling results as they relate to the assumptions your team has made.

1. Use your model to address how your proposal is affected if some proportion of the fishery moves into the territorial waters(sea)of another country.
   

2. In addition to your technical report, prepare a one-to two-page article for Hook Line and Sinker magazine to help fishermen understand the seriousness of the problem and how your proposed solution(s)will improve their future business prospects.
   

Your submission should consist of:

• One-page Summary Sheet

• Table of Contents

• One-to Two-page Article

• Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 24 pages with your summary, table of contents, and article.

• Note: Reference List and any appendices do not count toward the page limit and should appear after your completed solution.You should not make use of unauthorized images and materials whose use is restricted by copyright laws.Ensure you cite the sources for your ideas and the materials used in your report.

• Fishery: The collection of fish of a given species and the area that they inhabit.
  

• Habitat: The type of environment in which an organism or group normally lives or occurs.
  

• Small Fishing Company: A company engaged in commercial fishing with limited or very limited financial resources to invest in new equipment/vessels.
  

• Territorial Waters(sea): “as defined by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, is a belt of coastal waters extending at most 12 nautical miles(22.2 km;13.8 mi)from the baseline(usually the mean low-water mark)of a coastal state.The territorial sea is regarded as the sovereign territory of the state, although foreign ships(military and civilian)are allowed innocent passage through it, or transit passage for straits;this sovereignty also extends to the airspace over and seabed below.” [Territorial Waters.(n.In Wikipedia.Retrieved January 28, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters.]