第一篇：新托福模考tpo28綜合寫作

In the reading, it mainly talks about that Rorbot E Peary has been to north pole because it has three striking evidneces.However, in the lecture, the professor thinks that the points provided in the reading are not convencing.First of all, the reading points out that at the end of the investigation, the committee has concluded that Rorbot E Peary has been to the north pole.Nevertheless, the professor believes that the committee was not objective at all.Firstly, it was writed by his friends.What’s more, the investigation only msintained for two days and they can get precise conclusion in such a short time.So the committee is biased.In addition, the reading states that the English explorer Tom Avery has proved the truth that the Rorbot E Peary could reach the north pole within 37 days.On the contrary, the professor argues against that there are many distinguishment between the Rorbot and Tom, because at that time, Rorbot had no food and met the most server weather, whichwill make them late to reach the north pole.Finally, the reading concludes that there existd a old phote which was be taken at that time and from the photos, scientists can ensure that the site in the photo was the norht pole.By contrast, the professor objects that the photo can not prove that the Rorbot has been to the north pole because the photo was very old and the scence can not be precisely presented because them use old fishioned ceamar.

第二篇：tpo綜合寫作26

綜合寫作26

Reading

The zebra mussel, a freshwater shellfish native to Eastern Europe, has long been spreading out from its original habitats and has now reached parts of North America.There are reasons to believe that this invasion cannot be stopped and that it poses a serious threat to freshwater fish populations in all of North America.First, the history of the zebra mussels’ spread suggests that the invasion might be unstoppable.It is a prime example of an invasion made possible by human transportation.From the zebra mussel’s original habitats in Eastern Europe, ships helped spread it out along new canals built to connect Europe’s waterways.The mussel can attach itself to a ship’s bottom or can survive in the water—called “ballast water“—that the ship needs to take on to properly balance its cargo.By the early nineteenth century, the mussel had spread to the whole of Europe.It was later carried to the east coast of North America in the ballast water of ships traveling from Europe.The way ships have spread the zebra mussel in the past strongly suggests that the species will soon colonize all of North America.Moreover, once zebra mussels are carried to a new habitat, they can dominate it.They are a hardy species that does well under a variety of conditions, and they have a high rate of reproduction.Most important, however, zebra mussels often have no predators in their new habitats, and species without natural predators are likely to dominate their habitats.Finally, zebra mussels are likely to cause a decline in the overall fish population in habitats where they become dominant.The mussels are plankton eaters, which mean that they compete for food with many freshwater fish species.Summarize the points made in the lecture, being sure to explain how they support/contradict specific points made in the reading passage.Listening

Narrator

Now listen to part of a lecture on the topic you just read about.Professor

Contrary to what you just read, there are ways to control the zebra mussels’ spread.What's more, it is not so clear that the mussel is a serious threat to fish populations.True, the spread of zebra mussels couldn't be controlled in the past, but that's because people didn't have enough knowledge.In fact, there are effective ways to stop ships from carrying the mussels to new locations.Here's an

example.The way zebra mussels usually travel across the ocean is that a ship takes on some fresh ”ballast water" in Europe and then empties that water into American waterways when it arrives.Full of zebra mussels, but the ship can be required to empty out the freshwater and refill with ocean water while still out in the ocean.Saltwater will kill the mussels.Second, it's true that zebra mussels often don't have predators in their new habitats, but that's only in the beginning.What's been happening in Europe is that local aquatic birds sooner or later notice there's a new food source around and change their habits to exploit it.They switch from whatever they were eating before to eating zebra mussels.And birds can eat a lot of mussels.So zebra mussels aren't so likely to dominate their new habitats after all.Finally, even in habitats where zebra mussels become dominant, is the overall fish population likely to decrease.It's true that zebra mussels may have a negative impact on fish that eat plankton.But on other fish, they can have a positive impact.For example, the mussels generate nutrients that are eaten by fish that feed near the bottom of the lake or river.So bottom-feeding fish populations may increase, even if plankton-eating fish population decrease.一、閱讀聽力要點概括

Reading Passage

Main points: The invasion of zebra mussel to North America is unstoppable and puts a threat to freshwater fish.Sub point 1: History suggests invasion might be unstoppable.Sub point 2: Mussels can dominate their new habitat.Sub point 3: Mussel threats fish population after they dominate the area.Lecture

Attitude: Contrary.Unsure mussels’ threat to fish population.Sub Point 1: There are effective ways to stop mussels in today’s knowledge.(Salt water)

Sub Point 2: Birds can be predators and eat mussels.Sub Point 3: Bottom-feeding fish may increase while plankton-eating fish decrease but overall fish population only likely to decrease.Answers

二、范文逐段賞析

Paragraph 1

Contrary to what is argued in the passage, the lecture demonstrates how zebra mussels are not likely to become an imperative threat to freshwater fish populations in North America.此段功能：

(Listening passage后文提到用L代替)

(Reading passage后文用R代替)

以L的觀點為主要觀點，mussels不會對淡水魚群造成危害。首段一句話即確定全文邏輯為相反，contrary。

此段結構：

作者用一句話總結了全文討論的問題，并告訴大家全文邏輯為相反。極其單刀直入。大家發現論點很簡明時大可不必費心湊兩句話再起下一段。

Paragraph 2

First of all, recently uncovered knowledge of zebra mussel has shed light on new ways to prevent their invasion.Even though people in the past have not been able to stop the spread of zebra mussels, knowledge and technology may help abate their spread in the future.For example, although a large amount of zebra mussels spread to America by staying in the ballast water that is emptied halfway on the journey across the Atlantic and replenished with sea water, the zebra mussels can be exterminated as soon as they are directly exposed to salt water.此段功能：

以L的觀點起頭，談sub topic 1，說明現代科技相比舊時代科技有機會阻止mussels spreading.隨后舉聽力中的具體例子為證明。

此段結構：

此段為總分結構。第一句陳述L的觀點(可以阻止spreading)，第二句陳述R中的事實(過去的人確實未能阻止mussel spreading)，第三句呈現L中的事實(咸水可以消滅mussels)反駁R中的事實。

Paragraph 3

Furthermore, zebra mussels do not often dominate a new habitat for a long period of time.The lecture agrees that although zebra mussels may have no predators and reproduce rapidly in the beginning, it would not be long before predators take notice of this new source of food, and develop a taste for it, thus preventing its domination.此段功能：

還是以L觀點出發，談sub topic 2, 說明mussels不會經常統治它的棲息地。L中同意短時期內mussels沒有天敵，但沒過多久掠食者就會發現這些新的美味從而結束mussels的統治。

此段結構：

總分結構。第一句總結L觀點說明mussels完全統治是不成立的。第二句陳列L中同意R的證據。第三句陳列L反駁R的補充理由證據。

Paragraph 4

Finally, zebra mussels alone would not cause the decline of overall fish populations.Although zebra mussels may perhaps cause the decline of plankton eaters, as the passage suggests, they would also provide nutrients for bottom-feeding fish and ultimately cause the population of those fish to increase.此段功能：

討論sub topic 3, 說明mussels不會造成總體魚群數量的下降。L說雖然他同意R的觀點(mussels造成plankton eaters下降)，但是伴隨而來的bottom-feeding fish的數量上升從而導致總體魚群數量上身。

此段結構：

總分結構。第一句總結L觀點。第二句依然是陳列L同意R部分的證據。隨后第三句陳列L中補充的證據來反駁R的觀點。

三、范文全篇總評

1、邏輯結構

全文遵從總分結構，開頭段直接一句話總結+邏輯，展開全文反駁基調。隨后三段依照3個分論點依次展開。在分論點的論證中，作者闡明了L的態度，先小幅度同意R的觀點，隨即立刻補充新證據，反駁R的觀點。作者利用R的證據，補充新證據后證明了R原來觀點的片面性，從而達到一一駁倒的效果。

2、語言表達

全文十分緊湊，并啟用了一些新詞語賦予色彩。

其中值得借鑒的詞語和句式有：

1.Recently uncovered knowledge of zebra mussel has shed light on new ways to prevent their invasion

Recently uncovered:最近新發現的

/Newly discovered/ It is recently found out/

Shed light on: 給與了希望

/Shown/ Given/ Illuminated

2.The lecture agrees although………….(R的觀點)………..，….…(L的觀點會抵消R的觀點)….。

3.Ultimately：最終的，終極的

/Finally/ At last/ In the end/ After all/

Ultimately, the success of his company depends on good marketing.

第三篇：托福 tpo26 綜合寫作

In terms whether the zebra mussel will exert negative influence on North American, the passage and lecture are contradictory to each other.The author believes that zebra mussel might do harm the local species as they arrived while the lecturer holds a different opinion.First of all, the author makes a point that the history events suggest the zebra mussel's invasion is unstoppable.In the past, human transportation makes it possible for zebra mussel spread around the whole Europe and it is likely to happen again in North American.However, the lecturer demonstrates a different idea that a change made in the “ballast water” will prevent the invasion of zebra mussel from continuing.He says that if we refill the “ballast water” with ocean water, the mussel will no longer survive because the saline water might probably kill them all.Second, contrary to the belief in the passage that zebra mussel is able to conquer the new habitat due to their high reproduction rates and adaptation ability, as well as lacking predator, the lecturer says that the hypothesis made by author is not true.He mentions that there are many local bird will eat the zebra mussel as a major prey.As a result, the zebra mussel is unlikely to dominate the new habitat.Finally, regarding whether the zebra mussel will cause the decline in the fish population since they may compete for food such as plankton with fish species.The author thinks it is a possible consequence brought by zebra mussel.However, the lecturer refutes it that the mussel can't reduce the fish population because they provide enough nutrient for bottom living fish.

第四篇：托福TPO17綜合寫作

托福TPO17綜合寫作范文：鳥類數量減少的原因

在新托福綜合寫作中，有的同學語言使用的能力還有一定局限，還要刻意追求句式的復雜化，但這樣的后果就是寫出來的句子個個都有錯，個個都有表達不清。其實用最好的詞表達最多的內容才是最厲害的寫作方式，本文為大家整理了一篇新托福綜合寫作范文，來源于TPO 17。閱讀材料：

In the past century, the steady growth of the human population and the corresponding increasing in agriculture and pesticide use have caused much harm to wildlife in the United States – birds in particular.Unfortunately for birds, these trends are likely to continue, with the result that the number of birds in the United States will necessarily decline.在過去的一個世界，人類數量的增加以及隨之而來的農業生產的發展和殺蟲劑的增加使得很多美國的野生動物受到了影響，而這種問題在鳥類上表現得更為明顯。更加不幸的是，由于人口數量、農業生產和殺蟲劑使用的趨勢不會改變，美國的鳥類數量將會必然地隨之下降。First, as human populations and settlements continue to expand, birds’ natural habitats will continue to disappear.Forests, wetlands, and grasslands will give way to ever more homes, malls, and offices.As the traditional areas suitable for birds keep decreasing, so will the size of the birds’ populations that depend on those vanishing habitats.首先，隨著人口數量和居住面積的不斷擴張，鳥類天然的棲息地持續地減少。森林、濕地和草原都變成的住宅、商場和寫字樓。隨著那些傳統的適宜鳥類棲息的地方持續減少，失去賴以生存棲息地的鳥類，數量自然是減少的。

Second, agricultural activities must increase to keep pace with the growing human population.The growth of agriculture will also result in the further destruction of bird habitats as more and more wilderness areas are converted to agricultural use.As a result, bird populations in rural areas will continue to decline.第二，為了能夠滿足增長的人口數量，農業活動也必須隨之增加。農業的增加的代價是進一步破壞鳥類的棲息地，越來越多的荒地變成了農業用地。因而，鳥類在鄉村的數量也隨之持續減少。Third, as human settlements expand and agriculture increases, the use of chemical pesticides will also increase.Pesticides are poisons designed to kill agricultural and home garden pests, such as insects, but inevitable, pesticides get into the water and into the food chain for birds where they can harm birds.Birds that eat the poisoned insects or drink contaminated water can die as a result, and even if pesticides do not kill birds outright, they can prevent them from reproducing successfully.So, pesticides have significantly contributed to declines in bird population, and because there will continue to be a need to control agricultural pests in the future, this decline will continue.第三，隨著人類居住地的擴展和農業的發展，化學農藥的使用也增加了。農藥是用來殺死諸如昆蟲之類的生長在農田或者菜園的害蟲的有毒物質。不可避免的是，這些農藥會進入水系和食物鏈，進而傷害鳥類。鳥類會吃被毒死的昆蟲或者喝污染了的水。這樣會導致鳥類的死亡，即便不會不會導致鳥類的立刻死亡，也會影響鳥類的繁殖。所以，殺蟲劑會對鳥類的數量有非常嚴重的影響。同時，因為即便是在將來，還是需要殺蟲劑來控制農業害蟲，所以，鳥類數量減少的趨勢難以改變。閱讀部分需要提取的觀點是：

-Main point: 三個原因導致鳥類數量減少Sub point 2: 農業用地的增加Sub point 2: 因為新品種作物的種植，農業用地會越來越少

-Sub point 3: 新型殺蟲劑的毒性變小，并且正在研制新型抗蟲害作物，將來殺蟲劑不會繼續傷害鳥類

新托福綜合寫作對語言的要求是清晰表達，準確轉述即可(其實獨立寫作的要求也類似)。沒有必要一味地追求語言的華麗，把話說清楚最重要。

第五篇：Eylxzpa新托福寫作總結

-+

懶惰是很奇怪的東西，它使你以為那是安逸，是休息，是福氣；但實際上它所給你的是無聊，是倦怠，是消沉;它剝奪你對前途的希望，割斷你和別人之間的友情，使你心胸日漸狹窄，對人生也越來越懷疑。

—

新托福寫作總結

1.認識題目：形式和本質，題庫的設計原則和分類以及測試的語言技能

articulate complex ideas clearly and effectively

examine claims and accompanying evidence

support ideas with relevant reasons and examples

sustain a well-focused, coherent discussion

control the elements of standard written English

1)陳述問題和現象的語言能力

2)表達觀點

3)對觀點進行支持，否定，綜合評價的語言技能，包括對推理過程和邏輯的分析

4)分析現象存在的原因

5)表達一件事物或事件的利弊和綜合影響的多元化思維和表達能力

6)考生觀點不作為評判依據，但是提出觀點的視角以及分析問題的能力是語言表達的前提基礎，所以是訓練的重點，也是考試測試的重點

2.理解宗旨；托福寫作考試的目的——邏輯和論證

3.寫作的評分體系

作文考試的形式

1.閱讀+聽記+寫作20分鐘 字數 150-225

閱讀材料為給定的觀點加上對觀點的支持信息，比如使用事實事例或者邏輯的分析，而聽力內容是對閱讀材料進行支持或者否定，否定批駁為主，考生需要把握聽力中話語人對閱讀材料的切入點，以及話語人如何表達懷疑，否定等。作為測試的評分重點在于

1)聽力內容所有重點信息的全面與否

2)閱讀內容信息和聽力內容的相關聯

3)語言表達的準確

2.獨立寫作論文30分鐘字數最少300單詞

獨立寫作的入手方式（閱讀官方指南287頁）

1.題目中關鍵詞語的定義予以質疑和分析

2.按照命題給定的二分體系論證

3.總體抽象的入局

4.細節和個性的處理

5.對命題給定的紛爭予以具體界定，提出綜合多元思維

The task allows considerable latitude in the way you respond to the claim.Although it is important that you address the central issue, you are free to take any approach you wish.For example, you might

1)agree absolutely with the claim,2)disagree completely,3)or agree with some parts and not others

4)question the assumptions the statement seems to be making

5)qualify any of its terms, especially if the way you define or apply a term is important to developing your perspective on the issue

6)point out why the claim is valid in some situations but not in others

7)evaluate points of view that contrast with your own perspective

8)develop your position with reasons that are supported by several relevant examples or by a single extended example

作文的評分體系

官方指南288頁閱讀，提出要點

1)detailed discussion

2)unified

3)coherent

4)varied sentence structure

5)not high-level vocabulary but word choice is correct

6)minor errors

7)the flow of meanings

講解：

1.300單詞（大約15-20句子）的篇章結構布局

2.何謂on-topic /off-topic

3.句子的銜接技術和藝術

4.句法結構的變化和復雜程度

5.小詞的理念（OG280頁173題 借錢和友誼——如何使用高中詞匯寫出滿分作文？）

6.思維的藝術和美的探索

什么是完美的篇章結構布局？

Introduction 導入段落的功能和內容

得分印象形成的關鍵

常見的錯誤（現場寫作269頁第29題：人類活動和地球爭論）

應該寫什么內容？

多少句子，多少單詞？(1-3個句子，字數在30-80左右)

常用的容易掌握的寫作開頭方式學習：

1)問題 + 觀點

2)觀點

3)正反觀點+選擇

4)現象+問題+觀點

5)觀點+ 反駁

6)觀點+ 支持

main body

2-4段落

每段字數和句子數量 100-150 單詞左右，大概5-8個句子

段落的節本結構：三層次理論

段落內部的銜接技術

段落的總分結構體系

段落內部的句法轉變

詞的選擇

段落寫作學習的方法：

conclusion

1-3個句子

寫作訓練的基本方法：

1.上我的課

2.翻譯

3.背誦

4.寫日記

開頭例文：

地球也許并不是為了人類生存才存在并且也許它原本不是今天這個樣子的。人類在地球迄今為止上的所有活動無不對地球的健康產生了影響。至于這些影響到底是使地球變得更適于生存還是對地球造成了破壞則是一個永恒無法絕對回答的爭議。

The earth perhaps does not exist for human beings to survive and thrive on it and it was, surely, not what it is today.（24words）All human activities on the earth have changed the landscape and exerted impacts on the health of the earth.Have the human activities harmed the earth? Or have the earth has changed a better place to live? The answers to these questions will vary considerably as time goes on and on.總計75 words，如果去掉首句24單詞，文章開頭依然成立，并且不失分。則構成典型的（現象+ 問題 + 觀點）開頭風格。文章中作者的觀點非常明確，屬于典型的中立寫作布局開。280頁173道題目：借錢和友誼的論證

小詞的價值

To borrow money from a friend has little to do with the maintenance of friendship because friendship depends less on money than on the love, honesty, and understanding between them.That is to say to borrow money will make the friendship stronger and closer if they love and understand each other.In this case, friendship will go on and on and on.However, without the love and mutual understanding friendship will be one day gone with the wind.Therefore it is clear that love and understanding is the very basis(foundation)of friendship which has been(figuratively)described as the light on the earth and the salt in the world.Money, on the contrary, is no.段落內部的銜接分析 下文選自大英百科

Social resources are similarly an indispensable prerequisite to a successful innovation.Many inventions have foundered because the social resources vital for their realization—the capital, materials, and skilled personnel—were not available.The notebooks of Leonardo da Vinci are full of ideas for helicopters, submarines, and airplanes, but few of these reached even the model stage because resources of one sort or another were lacking.The resource of capital involves the existence of surplus productivity and an organization capable of directing the available wealth into channels in which the inventor can use it.The resource of materials involves the availability of appropriate metallurgical, ceramic, plastic, or textile substances that can perform whatever functions a new invention requires of them.The resource of skilled personnel implies the presence of technicians capable of constructing new artifacts and devising novel processes.A society, in short, has to be well primed with suitable resources in order to sustain technological innovation

段落的學習：翻譯練習作業 下文選自大英百科

OG273頁81題 關于人和技術

The technological dilemma

二分法思維訓練 on the one hand?on the other hand

正反訓練rather

因果關系 and so?

Whatever the responses to modern technology, there can be no doubt that it presents

contemporary society with a number of immediate problems that take the form of a traditional choice of evils, so that it is appropriate to regard them as constituting a “technological dilemma.” This is the dilemma between, on the one hand, the overdependence of life in the advanced industrial countries on technology, and, on the other hand, the threat that technology will destroy the quality of life in modern society and even endanger society itself.Technology thus confronts Western civilization with the need to make a decision, or rather, a series of decisions, about how to use the enormous power available to society constructively rather than destructively.The need to control the development of technology, and so to resolve the dilemma, by regulating its application to creative social objectives, makes it ever more necessary to define these objectives while the problems presented by rapid technological growth can still be solved.總分結構的訓練

These problems, and the social objectives related to them, may be considered under three broad headings.First is the problem of controlling the application of nuclear technology.Second is the population problem, which is twofold: it seems necessary to find ways of controlling the dramatic rise in the number of human beings and, at the same time, to provide food and care for the people already living on the Earth.Third, there is the ecological problem, whereby the products and wastes of technical processes have polluted the environment and disturbed the balance of natural forces of regeneration.When these basic problems have been reviewed it will be possible, finally, to consider the effect of technology on life in town and countryside, and to determine the sort of judgments about technology and society to which a study of the history of technology leads.Nuclear technology

The solution to the first problem, that of controlling nuclear technology, is primarily political.At its root is the anarchy of national self-government, for as long as the world remains divided into a multiplicity of nation-states, or even into two power blocs, each committed to the defense of its own sovereign power to do what it chooses, nuclear weapons merely replace the older weapons by which such nation-states have maintained their independence in the past.The availability of a nuclear armoury has emphasized the weaknesses of a world political system based upon sovereign nation-states.Here, as elsewhere, technology is a tool that can be used creatively or destructively.But the manner of its use depends entirely on human decisions, and in this matter of nuclear self-control the decisions are those of governments.There are other aspects of the problem of nuclear technology, such as the disposal of radioactive waste and the quest to harness the energy released by fusion, but although these are important issues in their own right, they are subordinate to the problem of the use of nuclear weapons in warfare.Population explosion

Assuming that the use of nuclear weapons can be averted, world civilization will have to come to grips with the population problem in the next few decades if life is to be tolerable on planet Earth in the 21st century.The problem can be tackled in two ways, both drawing on the resources of modern technology.In the first place, efforts may be made to limit the rate of population increase.Medical technology, which, through new drugs and other techniques, has provided a powerful impulse to the increase of population, also offers means of controlling this increase

through contraceptive devices and through painless sterilization procedures.Again, technology is a tool that is neutral in respect to moral issues about its own use, but it would be futile to deny that artificial population control is inhibited by powerful moral constraints and taboos.Some reconciliation of these conflicts is essential, however, if stability in world population is to be satisfactorily achieved.Perhaps the experience of China, already responsible for one-quarter of the world's population, is instructive here: in an attempt to prevent the population growth from exceeding the ability of the country to sustain the existing standards of living, the government imposed a “one-child family” campaign in the 1970s, which is maintained by draconian social controls.In the second place, even the most optimistic program of population control can hope to achieve only a slight reduction in the rate of increase by the end of the 20th century, so that an alternative approach must be made simultaneously in the shape of an effort to increase the world's production of food.Technology has much to contribute at this point, both in raising the

productivity of existing sources of food supply by improved techniques of agriculture and better types of grain and animal stock, and in creating new sources of food by making the deserts fertile and by systematically farming the riches of the oceans.There is enough work here to keep engineers and food technologists busy for many generations.Ecological balance

The third major problem area of modern technological society is that of preserving a healthy environmental balance.Though man has been damaging his environment for centuries by overcutting trees and farming too intensively, and though some protective measures, such as the establishment of national forests and wildlife sanctuaries, were taken decades ago, great increases in

population and in the intensity of industrialization are promoting a worldwide ecological crisis.This includes the dangers involved in destruction of the equatorial rain forests, the careless exploitation of minerals by open-mining techniques, and the pollution of the oceans by radioactive waste and of the atmosphere by combustion products.These include oxides of sulfur and nitrogen, which produce acid rain, and carbon dioxide, which may affect the world's climate through the so-called greenhouse effect.It was the danger of indiscriminate use of pesticides such as DDT after World War II that first alerted opinion in advanced Western countries to the delicate nature of the world's ecological system, presented in a trenchant polemic by the U.S.science writer Rachel Carson in her book Silent Spring(1962);this was followed by a spate of warnings about other possibilities of ecological disaster.The great public concern about pollution in the advanced nations is both overdue and welcome.Once more, however, it needs to be said that the fault for this waste-making abuse of technology lies with man himself rather than with the tools he uses.For all his intelligence, man in communities behaves with a lack of respect for his environment that is both short-sighted and potentially suicidal.Technological society

Much of the 19th-century optimism about the progress of technology has dispersed, and an increasing awareness of the technological dilemma confronting the world makes it possible to offer a realistic assessment of the role of technology in shaping society at the end of the 20th century.Interactions between society and technology

In the first place, it can be clearly recognized that the relationship between technology and society is complex.Any technological stimulus can trigger a variety of social responses, depending on such unpredictable variables as differences between human personalities;similarly,no specific social situation can be relied upon to produce a determinable technological response.Any “theory of invention,” therefore, must remain extremely tentative, and any notion of a “philosophy” of the history of technology must allow for a wide range of possible interpretations.A major lesson of the history of technology, indeed, is that it has no precise predictive value.It is frequently possible to see in retrospect when one particular artifact or process had reached obsolescence while another promised to be a highly successful innovation, but at the time such historical hindsight is not available and the course of events is indeterminable.In short, the complexity of human society is never capable of resolution into a simple identification of causes and effects driving historical development in one direction rather than another, and any attempt to identify technology as an agent of such a process is unacceptable.