第一篇:TED演講--如何掌控你的自由時間
How to Manage Your Free Time When people find out I write about time management, Theyassume two things.One is that I'm always on time, and I'm not.I have four small children, and I would like to blame them for my occasional tardiness, but sometimes it's just not their fault.I was once late to my own speech on time management.We all had to just take a moment together and savor that irony.The second thing they assume is that I have lots of tips and tricks for saving bits of time here and there.Sometimes I'll hear from magazines that are doing a story along these lines, generally on how to help their readers find an extra hour in the day.And the idea is that we'll shave bits of time off everyday activities, add it up, and we'll have time for the good stuff.I question the entire premise of this piece, but I'm always interested in hearing what they've come up with before they call me.Some of my favorites: doing errands where you only have to make right-hand turns、Being extremely judicious in microwave usage: it says three to three-and-a-half minutes on the package, we're totally getting in on the bottom side of that.And my personal favorite, which makes sense on some level, is to DVR your favorite shows so you can fast-forward through the commercials.That way, you save eight minutes every half hour, so in the course of two hours of watching TV, you find 32 minutes to exercise.Which is true.You know another way to find 32 minutes to exercise? Don't watch two hours of TV a day, right? Anyway, the idea is we'll, save bits of time here and there, add it up, we will finally get to everything we want to do.But after studying how successful people spend their time and looking at their schedules hour by hour, I think this idea has it completely backward.We don't build the lives we want by saving time.We build the lives we want, and then time saves itself.Here's what I mean.I recently did a time diary project looking at 1,001 days in the lives of extremely busy women.They had demanding jobs, sometimes their own businesses, kids to care for, maybe parents to care for, community commitments...busy, busy people.I had them keep track of their time for a week, so I could add up how much they worked and slept, and I interviewed them about their strategies, for my book.One of the women whose time log I studied...she goes out on a Wednesday night for something.She comes home to find that her water heater has broken, and there is now water all over her basement.If you've ever had anything like this happen to you, you know it is a hugely damaging, frightening, sopping mess.So she's dealing with the immediate aftermath that night, next day she's got plumbers coming in, day after that, professional cleaning crew dealing with the ruined carpet.All this is being recorded on her time log.Winds up taking seven hours of her week.Seven hours.That's like finding an extra hour in the day.But I'm sure if you had asked her at the start of the week, “Could you find seven hours to train for a triathlon?” “Could you dind seven hours to mentor seven worthy people?” I'm sure she would've said what most of us would've said, which is, “No...can't you see how busy I am?” Yet when she had to find seven hours because there is water all over her basement, she found seven hours.And what this shows us is that time is highly elastic.We cannot make more time, but time will stretch to accommodate what we choose to put into it.And so the key to time management is treating our priorities as the equivalent of that broken water heater.To get at this, I like to use language from one of the busiest people I ever interviewed.By busy,I mean she was running a small business with 12 people on the payroll,she had six children in her spare time.I was getting in touch with her to set up an interview on how she “had it all”...that phrase.I remember it was a Thursday morning,and she was not available to speak with me.Of course,right? But the reason she was unavailable to speak with me is that she was out for a hike,because it was a beautiful spring morning,and she wanted to go for a hike.So of course this makes me even more intrigued,and when I finally do catch up with her,she explains it like this.She says,“Listen Laura,everything I do,every minute I spend,is my choice.”And rather than say,“I don't have time to do x,y or z,”she'd say,“I don't do x,y or z because it's not a priority.”“I don't have time,”often means“It's not a priority.”If you think about it,that's really more accurate language.I could tell you I don't have time to dust to dust my blinds,but that's not true.If you offered to pay me $100,000 to dust my blinds,I would get to it pretty quickly.Since that is not going to happen,I can acknowledge this is not a matter of lacking time,it's that I don't want to do it.Using this language reminds us that time is a choice.And granted,there may be horrible consequences for making different choices,I will give you that.But we are smart people,and certainly over the long run,we have the power to fill our lives with the things that deserve to be there.So how do we do that?How do we treat our priorities as the equivalent of that broken water heater? Well,first we need to figure out what they are.I want to give you two strategies for thinking about this.The first,on the professional side:I'm sure many people coming up to the end of the year are giving or getting annual performance reviews.You look back over your successes over the year,your “opportunities for growth.”And this serves its purpose,but I find it's more effective to do this looking forward.So I want you to pretend it's the end of next year.You're giving yourself a performance review(績效評估),and it has been an absolutely amazing year for you professionally.Write next year's review:What 3-5 things would make it a great year for you professionally.So you can write next year's performance review now.And you can do this for your personal life,too.I'm sure many of you,like me,come December,get cards that contain these folded up sheets of colored paper,on which written what is known as the family holiday letter.Bit of a wretched genre of literature,really,going on about how amazing everyone in the household is,or even more scintillating,how busy everyone in the household is.But these letters serve a purpose,which is that they tell your friends and family what you did in your personal life that mattered to you over the year.So this year's kind of done,but I want you to pretend it's the end of next year,and it has been an absolutely amazing year for you and the people you care about.Write the family hollday letter:What three to five things did you do that made it so amazing?So you can write next year's family holiday letter now.Don't send it.Please,don't send it.But you can write it.And now,between the performance review and the family holiday letter,we have a list of six to ten goals we can work on in the next year.And now we need to break these down into doable steps.So maybe you want to write a family history.First,you can read some other family histories,get a sense for the style.Then maybe think about the questions you want to ask your relatives,set up appointments to interview them.Or maybe you want to run a 5K.So you need to find a race and sign up,figure out a training plan,and dig those shoes out of the back of the closet.And then...this is key...we treat our priorities as the equivalent of that broken water heater,by putting them into our schedules first.We do this by thinking through our weeks before we are in them,I find a really good time to do this is Friday afternoons.Friday afternoon is what an economist might call a “low opportunity cost” time.Most of us are not sitting there on Friday afternoons saying,“I am excited to make progress toward my personal and professional priorities right now.”But we are willing to think about what those should be.So take a little bit of time Friday afternoon,make yourself a three-category priority list:career,relationships,self.Making a three-category list reminds us that there should be something in all three categories.Career,we think about;relationships,self...not so much.But anyway,just a short list,two to three items in each.Then look out over the whole of the next week,and see where you can plan them in.Where you plan them in is up to you.I know this is going to be more complicated for some people than others.I mean,some people's lives are just harder than others.It is not going to be easy to find time to take that poetry class if you are caring for multiple children on your own.I get that.And I don't want to minimize anyone's struggle.But I do think that the numbers I am about to tell you are empowering.There are 168 hours in a week.Twenty-four times seven is 168 hours.That is a lot of time.If you are working a full-time job,so 40 hours a week,sleeping eight hours a night,so 56 hours a week...that leaves 72 hours for other things.That is a lot of time.You say you're working 50 hours a week,maybe a main job and a side hustle.Well,that leaves 62 hours for other things.You say you're working 60 hours.Well,that leaves 52 hours for other things.You say you're working more than 60 hours.Well,are you sure?There was once a study comparing people's estimated work weeks with time diaries.They found that people claiming 75-plus-hour work weeks were off by about 25 hours.You can guess in which direction,right?Anyway,in 168 hours a week,I think we can find time for what matters to you.If you want to spend more time with your kids,you want to study more for a test you're taking,you want to exercise for three hours and volunteer for two,you can.And that's even if you're working way more than full-time hours.So we have plenty of time,which is great,because guess what? We don't even need that much time to do amazing things.But when most of us have bits of time,what do we do?Pull out the phone,right?Start deleting emails.Otherwise,we're puttering around the house or watching TV.But small moments can have great power.You can use your bits of time for bits of joy.Maybe it's choosing to read something wonderful on the bus on the way to work.I know when I had a job that required two bus rides and a subway ride every morning,I used to go to the library on weekends to get stuff to read.It made the whole experience almost,almost, enjoyable.Breaks at work can be used for meditating or praying.If family dinner is out because of your crazy work schedule,maybe family breakfast could be a good substitute.It's about looking at the whole of one's time and seeing where the good stuff can go.I truly believe this,there is time.Even if we are busy,we have time for what matters.And when we focus on what matters,we can build the lives we want in the time we've got.
第二篇:(TED英文演講)如何掌控你的自由時間——觀后感
“How to control your free time?”--------Feedback According to the speaker, the key to time management is not just use your fragmented time, but make use of time as planned with your aim.As the speaker said, “We don’t build the lives we want by saving time, we build the lives we want, and than time saves itself.” Perhaps you may be more exhausted on account of full of activities on your schedule.This is what the speaker pointed out that the traditional idea had completely been out of fashion.Time is highly elastic.Everything you do, every minute you spend, is your choice.You should build your aims so that you do things in your direction, then time can be fully taken advantage of.Well, the methods of time management the speaker told us could be divided into three steps.First of all, look forward to future and set up your new goals, which should be into small pieces and put the most essential on the top of your schedule.Secondly, find time for what matters to you, accomplish them in the order of priority.Third, it’s a good choice for you to free yourself in your fragmented time.Finally, I’d like to quote the speaker’s final words.“There is time.Even if we are busy, we have time for what matters.And when we focus on what matters, we can build the lives we want in the time we got.”
第三篇:TED演講 健康的時間觀念
Philip Zimbardo: The psychology of time I want to share with you some ideas about the secret power of time, in a very short time.Video: All right, start the clock please.30 seconds studio.Keep it quiet please.Settle down.It's about time.End sequence.Take one.15 seconds studio.10, nine, eight, seven,six, five, four, three, two...Philip Zimbardo: Let's tune into the conversation of the principals in Adam's temptation.“Come on Adam, don't be so wishy-washy.Take a bite.” “I did.” “One bite, Adam.Don't abandon Eve.” “I don't know, guys.I don't want to get in trouble.” “Okay.One bite.What the hell?”(Laughter)
Life is temptation.It's all about yielding, resisting, yes, no, now, later, impulsive, reflective,present focus and future focus.Promised virtues fall prey to the passions of the moment.Of teenage girls who pledged sexual abstinence and virginity until marriage--thank you George Bush--the majority, 60 percent, yielded to sexual temptations within one year.And most of them did so without using birth control.So much for promises.Now lets tempt four-year-olds, giving them a treat.They can have one marshmallow now.But if they wait until the experimenter comes back, they can have two.Of course it pays, if you like marshmallows, to wait.What happens is two-thirds of the kids give in to temptation.They cannot wait.The others, of course, wait.They resist the temptation.They delay the now for later.Walter Mischel, my colleague at Stanford, went back 14 years later, to try to discover what was different about those kids.There were enormous differences between kids who resistedand kids who yielded, in many ways.The kids who resisted scored 250 points higher on the SAT.That's enormous.That's like a whole set of different IQ points.They didn't get in as much trouble.They were better students.They were self-confident and determined.And the key for me today, the key for you, is, they were future-focused rather than present-focused.So what is time perspective? That's what I'm going to talk about today.Time perspective is the study of how individuals, all of us, divide the flow of your human experience into time zones or time categories.And you do it automatically and non-consciously.They vary between cultures, between nations, between individuals, between social classes, between education levels.And the problem is that they can become biased, because you learn to over-use some of them and under-use the others.What determines any decision you make? You make a decision on which you're going to base an action.For some people it's only about what is in the immediate situation, what other people are doing and what you're feeling.And those people, when they make their decisions in that format--we're going to call them “present-oriented,” because their focus is what is now.For others, the present is irrelevant.It's always about “What is this situation like that I've
experienced in the past?” So that their decisions are based on past memories.And we're going to call those people “past-oriented,” because they focus on what was.For others it's not the past, it's not the present, it's only about the future.Their focus is always about anticipated consequences.Cost-benefit analysis.We're going to call them “future-oriented.” Their focus is on what will be.So, time paradox, I want to argue, the paradox of time perspective, is something that influences every decision you make, you're totally unaware of.Namely, the extent to which you have one of these biased time perspectives.Well there is actually six of them.There are two ways to be
present-oriented.There is two ways to be past-oriented, two ways to be future.You can focus on past-positive, or past-negative.You can be present-hedonistic,namely you focus on the joys of life, or present-fatalist--it doesn't matter, your life is controlled.You can be future-oriented, setting goals.Or you can be transcendental future:namely, life begins after death.Developing the mental flexibility to shift time perspectives fluidly depending on the demands of the situation, that's what you've got to learn to do.So, very quickly, what is the optimal time profile? High on past-positive.Moderately high on
future.And moderate on present-hedonism.And always low on past-negative and present-fatalism.So the optimal temporal mix is what you get from the past--past-positive gives you roots.You connect your family, identity and your self.What you get from the future is wings to soar to new destinations, new challenges.What you get from the present hedonism is the energy, the energy to explore yourself, places, people, sensuality.Any time perspective in excess has more negatives than positives.What do futures sacrifice for success? They sacrifice family time.They sacrifice friend time.They sacrifice fun time.They sacrifice personal indulgence.They sacrifice hobbies.And they sacrifice sleep.So it affects their health.And they live for work, achievement and control.I'm sure that resonates with some of the TEDsters.(Laughter)
And it resonated for me.I grew up as a poor kid in the South Bronx ghetto, a Sicilian family--everyone lived in the past and present.I'm here as a future-oriented person who went over the top, who did all these sacrifices because teachers intervened, and made me future oriented.Told me don't eat that marshmallow, because if you wait you're going to get two of them, until I learned to balance out.I've added present-hedonism, I've added a focus on the past-positive, so, at 76 years old, I am more energetic than ever, more productive, and I'm happier than I have ever been.I just want to say that we are applying this to many world problems: changing the drop-out rates of school kids, combating addictions, enhancing teen health, curing vets' PTSD with time metaphors--getting miracle cures--promoting sustainability and conservation,reducing physical
rehabilitation where there is a 50-percent drop out rate, altering appeals to suicidal terrorists, and modifying family conflicts as time-zone clashes.So I want to end by saying: many of life's puzzles can be solved by understanding your time
perspective and that of others.And the idea is so simple, so obvious, but I think the consequences are really profound.Thank you so much.(Applause)
第四篇:TED演講 健康的時間觀念
Philip Zimbardo: The psychology of time I want to share with you some ideas about the secret power of time, in a very short time.Video: All right, start the clock please.30 seconds studio.Keep it quiet please.Settle down.It's about time.End sequence.Take one.15 seconds studio.10, nine, eight, seven,six, five, four, three, two...Philip Zimbardo: Let's tune into the conversation of the principals in Adam's temptation.“Come on Adam, don't be so wishy-washy.Take a bite.” “I did.” “One bite, Adam.Don't abandon Eve.” “I don't know, guys.I don't want to get in trouble.” “Okay.One bite.What the hell?”(Laughter)Life is temptation.It's all about yielding, resisting, yes, no, now, later, impulsive, reflective,present focus and future focus.Promised virtues fall prey to the passions of the moment.Of teenage girls who pledged sexual abstinence and virginity until marriage--thank you George Bush--the majority, 60 percent, yielded to sexual temptations within one year.And most of them did so without using birth control.So much for promises.Now lets tempt four-year-olds, giving them a treat.They can have one marshmallow now.But if they wait until the experimenter comes back, they can have two.Of course it pays, if you like marshmallows, to wait.What happens is two-thirds of the kids give in to temptation.They cannot wait.The others, of course, wait.They resist the temptation.They delay the now for later.Walter Mischel, my colleague at Stanford, went back 14 years later, to try to discover what was different about those kids.There were enormous differences between kids who resistedand kids who yielded, in many ways.The kids who resisted scored 250 points higher on the SAT.That's enormous.That's like a whole set of different IQ points.They didn't get in as much trouble.They were better students.They were self-confident and determined.And the key for me today, the key for you, is, they were future-focused rather than present-focused.So what is time perspective? That's what I'm going to talk about today.Time perspective is the study of how individuals, all of us, divide the flow of your human experience into time zones or time categories.And you do it automatically and non-consciously.They vary between cultures, between nations, between individuals, between social classes, between education levels.And the problem is that they can become biased, because you learn to over-use some of them and under-use the others.What determines any decision you make? You make a decision on which you're going to base an action.For some people it's only about what is in the immediate situation, what other people are doing and what you're feeling.And those people, when they make their decisions in that format--we're going to call them “present-oriented,” because their focus is what is now.For others, the present is irrelevant.It's always about “What is this situation like that I've experienced in the past?” So that their decisions are based on past memories.And we're going to call those people “past-oriented,” because they focus on what was.For others it's not the past, it's not the present, it's only about the future.Their focus is always about anticipated consequences.Cost-benefit analysis.We're going to call them “future-oriented.” Their focus is on what will be.So, time paradox, I want to argue, the paradox of time perspective, is something that influences every decision you make, you're totally unaware of.Namely, the extent to which you have one of these biased time perspectives.Well there is actually six of them.There are two ways to be present-oriented.There is two ways to be past-oriented, two ways to be future.You can focus on past-positive, or past-negative.You can be present-hedonistic,namely you focus on the joys of life, or present-fatalist--it doesn't matter, your life is controlled.You can be future-oriented, setting goals.Or you can be transcendental future:namely, life begins after death.Developing the mental flexibility to shift time perspectives fluidly depending on the demands of the situation, that's what you've got to learn to do.So, very quickly, what is the optimal time profile? High on past-positive.Moderately high on future.And moderate on present-hedonism.And always low on past-negative and present-fatalism.So the optimal temporal mix is what you get from the past--past-positive gives you roots.You connect your family, identity and your self.What you get from the future is wings to soar to new destinations, new challenges.What you get from the present hedonism is the energy, the energy to explore yourself, places, people, sensuality.Any time perspective in excess has more negatives than positives.What do futures sacrifice for success? They sacrifice family time.They sacrifice friend time.They sacrifice fun time.They sacrifice personal indulgence.They sacrifice hobbies.And they sacrifice sleep.So it affects their health.And they live for work, achievement and control.I'm sure that resonates with some of the TEDsters.(Laughter)And it resonated for me.I grew up as a poor kid in the South Bronx ghetto, a Sicilian family--everyone lived in the past and present.I'm here as a future-oriented person who went over the top, who did all these sacrifices because teachers intervened, and made me future oriented.Told me don't eat that marshmallow, because if you wait you're going to get two of them, until I learned to balance out.I've added present-hedonism, I've added a focus on the past-positive, so, at 76 years old, I am more energetic than ever, more productive, and I'm happier than I have ever been.I just want to say that we are applying this to many world problems: changing the drop-out rates of school kids, combating addictions, enhancing teen health, curing vets' PTSD with time metaphors--getting miracle cures--promoting sustainability and conservation,reducing physical rehabilitation where there is a 50-percent drop out rate, altering appeals to suicidal terrorists, and modifying family conflicts as time-zone clashes.So I want to end by saying: many of life's puzzles can be solved by understanding your time perspective and that of others.And the idea is so simple, so obvious, but I think the consequences are really profound.Thank you so much.(Applause)
第五篇:Ted演講
私有制:中國經濟奇跡的真正源泉
甚至連許多西方經濟學家都認為,中國已經找到了主要依靠國家財政與控制的繁榮之路。但是,他們大錯特錯了。
2009年3月 ? 黃亞生
美國式資本主義的可信性是全球金融危機中最早的犧牲品之一。隨著雷曼兄弟銀行的破產倒閉,全世界的權威評論家一窩蜂地唱衰美國經濟理念——有限政府、最小限度的監管和對信貸的自由市場分配等。在考慮以何種模式取代沒落的美國模式時,有些人把目光轉向了中國。在中國,市場受到嚴格的監管,而金融機構則由國家控制。在經歷了華爾街的潰敗后,焦躁不安的弗朗西斯?福山在《新聞周刊》(Newsweek)上撰文指出,中國式的國家資本主義“看起來越來越有吸引力了。”《華盛頓郵報》(Washington Post)的專欄作家大衛?伊格內修斯為基于孔子思想的“新干預主義”在全球的出現而高聲歡呼;伊格內修斯引用理查德?尼克松間接稱頌經濟學家凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的話說:“現在我們都中國化了。”
但是,在宣布新的中國世紀的曙光到來之前,全球的領導人和高管們需要好好再想一想,中國活力的源泉到底是什么。說到中國經濟奇跡產生的原因,獲得廣泛認可的看法——那是專家治國論的勝利,共產黨依靠國家控制的企業實現了向市場經濟的逐步轉型——從各個重要方面來講都錯了。這種標準的看法認為,企業家精神、私有財產權、金融自由化和政治改革對中國的經濟奇跡只發揮了很小的作用。但是,基于對中國政府的調查數據和中央及地方政府文件的詳細分析,我的研究結論是,財產權和私營企業是高速增長和貧困水平降低最主要的激勵因素。
我們經常讀到這樣的文章,認為漸進主義是中國成功地從馬克思主義轉型到市場經濟的關鍵因素;許多文章稱贊北京摒棄了俄羅斯式的休克療法,采用更加務實的方法,創建了良好的商業環境,讓私營企業有機地發展。這種觀點認為,通過在上世紀80年代首先進行小范圍改革,中國經濟發展的自由度和市場導向水平逐漸提高,并在90年代后期積蓄了發展動力。但事實并非如此。實際發生的情況是,上世紀80年代進行的金融自由化和私營企業的早期地方性試驗,催生了鄉鎮企業最初的蓬勃發展。正是這些早期的收獲——而并非國家主導的大規模基礎設施投資和90年代的城市化——為中國奇跡奠定了真正的基礎。盡管有許多專家將中國宏大的基礎設施項目和利用外國資金建設的嶄新工廠與印度破敗不堪的公路和微不足道的外國直接投資流進行比較,但這種觀點夸大了公共開支和外國投資對中國發展的貢獻。直到上世紀90年代后期以前,這兩種因素在中國的影響力所占比重都不大——它們的出現比80年代寬松的金融控制和最初的鄉鎮企業發展大潮要晚得多。在上世紀80年代,中國經濟的發展要比90年代快得多,并且產生了更好的社會效益:貧困人口下降,貧富差距縮小,而且勞動力在GDP中所占份額——衡量從經濟發展中人均獲益的指標——顯著上升。從1978年到1988年,生活水平低于中國貧困線的農村人口減少了1.5億以上。而在90年代,盡管GDP幾乎都達到了兩位數增長,并且實施了大規模的基礎設施建設,但貧困人口數量卻只下降了6,000萬。此外,在80年代,中國經濟增長主要靠投資而不是消費驅動的程度遠不像今天這樣嚴重。
換句話說,企業資本主義與國家資本主義不同,它不僅帶來了增長,而且還對增長所帶來的利益進行了廣泛的分配。企業主義(Entrepreneurialism)既充滿活力,又符合社會道德。
西方媒體總愛把像北京、上海和深圳這樣的大城市稱頌為生機勃勃的發展中心(見圖表)。而中國的農村地區,即使被提到,也通常被形容為貧困的窮鄉僻壤。但是,只要對經濟數據進行仔細分析,就會發現,對中國現代化城市高樓大廈的這些令人震撼的描述完全是一種誤導:事實上,中國的農村才具有最大的經濟活力,而政府的強勢干預已經窒息了中心城市的企業家精神和所有權。
后一種觀點的重要性無論怎樣強調都不過分。中國資本主義的發展歷史事實上大部分都可以被描述為兩個中國的斗爭:由市場推動的、富有企業家精神的農村與由國家主導的城市之間的斗爭。無論何時何地,只要中國農村占據優勢地位,中國的資本主義就是企業式的、獨立于政治的,并且是充滿競爭活力的。無論何時何地,只要中國城市占據主導地位,中國的資本主義就會朝著依賴于政治和國家集權的方向發展。
上海是中國城市發展最顯著的象征,其現代化的摩天大樓、外國奢侈品商店和全國最高的人均GDP使其成為中國的模范城市——一個國家資本主義獲得成功的最好例證。事實果真如此嗎?采用更具有實際意義的經濟成就指標來衡量,上海的發展遠不及溫州。溫州是位于上海南邊數百英里以外一個浙江省的城市,這里是企業資本主義的一片樂土。上世紀80年代初期,使溫州聞名于世的僅僅是它那勤勞的農民。當時,在溫州的500萬居民中,城市人口還不到10%。如今,溫州是中國最具活力的城市,其數量眾多的企業主宰著歐洲的服裝市場。而相比之下,曾經是中國最早的實業家樂園的上海,如今卻很少涌現出本土企業家。
溫州的轉型幾乎完全是靠自由市場政策來實現的。早在1982年,當地官員就開始試行民間借貸、自由利率、存貸款機構的跨地區競爭,以及向私營企業提供貸款等。溫州市政府還大力保護私營企業家的財產權,并從其他諸多方面使城市更有利于企業的發展。
本土企業為民生福祉帶來了什么變化嗎?非常多。按人均GDP計,上海幾乎是溫州所在的浙江省的兩倍(難以獲得溫州人均GDP的詳細數據)。但是,如果衡量家庭收入——一般居民的實際的支出能力——這兩個地區的繁榮程度就旗鼓相當了。2006年,一個典型上海居民的家庭收入比一個典型浙江居民的家庭收入高13%,但上海居民的非工薪收入水平(如政府福利)卻幾乎是浙江居民的兩倍。兩地居民的平均勞動收入大體相當。平均來看,上海居民從經營企業中獲得的收入比浙江居民低44%,而從所擁有的資產中獲得的收入則要低34%。這就意味著:國家資本主義可以提高城市高樓大廈的樓高和GDP的統計數據,但并未提升居民的實際生活水平。
如果研究一下浙江省與其北部近鄰江蘇省的經濟狀況,這種對比就會更加清晰。這兩個省份可以進行近乎完美的比較。它們的地理條件差不多相同:都是沿海省份,江蘇位于上海北面,而浙江位于上海南面。它們還擁有相似的企業發展歷史:都對解放前上海的實業家
和企業家階層做出過重大貢獻。然而,在改革以后的若干年里,江蘇省吸引了外國投資并從公共建設工程開支中受益頗多,而浙江省卻不然。這種差異產生了令人吃驚的結果。
20年前,江蘇省比浙江省更為富庶,但如今卻比浙江窮,在每一項重要的經濟和社會福利指標上都落后于浙江。平均來看,浙江居民的資產性收入要大大高于其北方鄰省的居民,他們居住的房子更大,擁有電話、計算機、彩電、相機或汽車的比例更高。浙江的嬰兒死亡率更低,浙江人的平均預期壽命更長,識字率也更高。值得注意的是,浙江的收入不平等程度也遠遠低于江蘇。應該如何解釋浙江更勝一籌的繁榮呢?最令人信服的解釋是,在江蘇,政府對經濟干預過多,歧視本地企業而青睞外國資本;而浙江的官員則讓本土企業家擁有自由支配權,允許他們構建更大、更富有活力的本地供應鏈。
中國經濟奇跡的真正難解之處并不是其經濟如何發展,而是西方專家為何對其發展歷程的理解錯誤百出。一個原因是,這些外來旁觀者誤解了構成中國經濟體系最基本的元素之一——鄉鎮企業——的性質。一些西方最知名的經濟學家將鄉鎮企業稱為具有中國特色——具有創新意義的混合體,在政府的控制下實現了高速增長——的資本主義象征。例如,諾貝爾獎得主約瑟夫?斯蒂格里茲就稱贊鄉鎮企業為從社會主義到資本主義轉型時最常見的問題——私人投資者的資產剝離——提供了具有獨創性的解決方案1他認為,這些企業既具有公有制的形式,可以避免被掠奪,同時又能實現私營企業的高效率。
簡而言之,西方經濟學家常常認為鄉鎮企業歸鄉鎮政府所有。就在2005年,另一位諾貝爾獎得主道格拉斯?羅斯在《華爾街日報》上撰文指出,鄉鎮企業“與經濟學中的標準企業很少有相似之處” 2。但有證據表明,情況并非如此。在中國國務院1984年3月1日發布的一份政策性文件中,第一次正式提到了鄉鎮企業的名稱。該文件將它們定義為“由鄉鎮主辦的企業、由農民組成的聯合企業、其他聯合企業和個體企業。”“由鄉鎮主辦的企業”一詞指的是歸鄉鎮所有并管理的集體企業。該政策文件中提到的所有其他企業均為私營企業:個人所有的企業或有多個股東的較大型企業——都是嚴格意義上的“經濟學中的標準企業”。官方對“鄉鎮企業”一詞的使用具有非常顯著的一致性:它一直是既包括私營企業,也包括政府主辦的企業。
西方經濟學家之所以會犯錯誤,是因為他們認定該名稱涉及到所有制。但中國官方卻從地理含義上去理解它——位于鄉鎮的企業。中國農業部的記錄證明,私人擁有并管理的企業實體在鄉鎮企業中占絕大部分。在1985年到2002年期間,集體所有制企業的數量于1986年達到頂峰,為173萬家,而私營企業的數量卻迅猛增長,從大約1050萬家增加到超過2,000萬家。換句話說,在改革時期,鄉鎮企業數量的增長完全歸功于私營企業。到1990年,在改革的頭10年中,此類私營企業雇用的勞動力數量占到了鄉鎮企業雇用勞動力總數的50%,而稅后利潤則占到了58%。
對中國發展的真正源泉的思想混亂也攪亂了外國人對中國企業出現在國際市場上的理解認知。人們常說,中國為全球競爭帶來了新的企業模式,國家所有制與明智的運用政府對金融的控制相結合,創造了獨一無二的競爭力源泉。計算機制造商聯想公司就經常被贊頌為中國非傳統商業環境中的一個杰作。
但是,聯想的成功大部分要歸功于其早期便在香港注冊并在香港募集資本的能力,而香港被認為是世界上最自由的市場經濟。1984年,聯想公司從中國科學院獲得了第一筆啟
動資金,但其后所有重大投資的資金均來自于香港3。1988年,該公司從總部位于香港的中國技術公司獲得了90萬港幣(11.6萬美元)的投資,成立了合資公司,使聯想能夠將香港作為其法定的公司所在地。1993年,香港聯想公司在香港證券交易所首次公開上市,集資1,200萬美元。聯想公司是香港基于市場的金融與法律體系的成功故事,而并非中國由國家控制的金融體系的成功案例。
當中國在汲取華爾街崩潰的教訓,并準備應對全球經濟低迷之時,它可能做的最糟糕的事情莫過于去接受它已經發現了比自由市場更高效的發展模式的說法。中國經濟奇跡的真正經驗其實非常傳統——基于私有制和自由市場金融。中國的經驗為全世界提供了非常及時的提示:旨在鼓勵這些力量發展的改革的確奏效。
作者簡介:
黃亞生,麻省理工學院Sloan管理學院副教授,從事政治經濟學的教學工作,創建并管理麻省理工學院的中國和印度實驗室,該實驗室旨在幫助本土企業家提高管理技能。本文摘自其《具有中國特色的資本主義:企業精神與國家》(Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and the State)一書。