第一篇：商務英語文章(帶中文翻譯)

（一）World economy

The jobs crisis 失業危機

It’s coming, whatever governments do;but they can make it better or worse

不論政府如何努力，失業危機已經到來。不過政府可以在這場危機中起到關鍵作用

Illustration by Belle Mellor

NOTHING evokes the misery of mass unemployment more than the photographs of the Depression.You can see it in the drawn faces of the men, in their shabby clothes, in their eyes.Their despair spawned political extremism that left a stain on society;but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work.Thanks to welfare schemes and unemployment benefits, many of which have their origins in those dark days, joblessness no longer plunges people into destitution, at least in the developed world.再沒有什么比關于經濟大蕭條的照片更能讓人體會大量失業的痛苦。這種痛苦顯見于人們緊繃的面容，襤褸的衣衫，還有他們的眼神。由人們的絕望所引發的政治極端主義給社會留下污點；失業問題也使后人懂得公共政策在減輕失業痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利計劃和失業救濟金方案都發軔于那些灰暗的失業時期；受惠于這些計劃，至少發達國家的人們不再因為失業而陷入窮困。

Not even the gloomiest predict that today’s slump will approach the severity of the Depression, which shrank America’s economy by more than a quarter, and put a quarter of the working-age population out of a job.But with the world in its deepest recession since the 1930s and global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 80 years, the misery of mass unemployment looms nonetheless, and raises the big question posed in the Depression: what should governments do?

即使是最悲觀的預計都不認為眼下的衰退會接近大蕭條的程度，后者使美國經濟縮水四分之一，四分之一的就業人口失去工作。但隨著世界經濟出現自1930年代以來的最大幅度衰退以及全球貿易80年來的最快速萎縮，大規模失業的惡魘再度凸顯，并且拋出了和大蕭條時期一樣的大問題：政府應該做些什么？

Join the queue 加入失業隊伍

In the rich world the job losses are starkest in America, where the recession began.Its flexible labour market has shed 4.4m jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, including more than 600,000 in each of the past three months.The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% in February, the highest in a quarter-century.An American who loses his job today has less of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago.That is especially worrying when the finances of many households have come to depend on two full incomes.富裕國家的失業問題在衰退肇始的美國最為顯著。自從07年12月經濟陷入低迷以來，美國靈活的勞動力市場已經溢出了440萬份失業，其中在過去三個月內每月產生了60萬份。二月的失業率躍升至8.1%，是25年來的最高數字。比起有紀錄的半個世紀內的任何時期，眼下失業的美國人更難再找到一份工作。特別是當很多家庭的財政依靠雙職工收入的時候，這種情況尤其令人堪憂。

But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far beyond America and Britain.In Japan output is plunging faster than in other rich economies.Although unemployment is low, rapid job losses among Japan’s army of temporary workers are exposing the unfairness of a two-tier labour market and straining an egalitarian society.然而顯而易見的是，失業問題的沉重打擊遠不止于美國和英國。日本的生產量比其他富裕經濟體下降得更快。盡管失業率尚低，但臨時工當中快速增長的失業大軍顯示了“雙層勞工市場”的不公平性，加劇了一個平等社會中的緊張。

In Europe joblessness has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland, where building booms have crashed, but has only begun to edge up elsewhere.The unemployment rates in many European countries are below America’s, but that may be because their more rigid labour markets adjust more slowly to falling demand.Given how fast European economies are shrinking, nobody doubts that worse lies ahead.By the end of 2010, unemployment in much of the rich world is likely to be above 10%.在歐洲，建筑業熱潮遭遇重創的西班牙和愛爾蘭等國失業速度增長最快，而在其他地方則初現端倪。很多歐洲國家的失業率都低于美國，但也許這只是因為它們有更加嚴格的勞工市場，從而對下降的市場需求適應更慢。面對著快速萎縮的歐洲經濟，沒有人會懷疑更糟糕的就業局面就在眼前。到2010年底，多數富裕國家的失業率可能會超過10%。

In the emerging world the pattern will be different, but the outcome more painful.As trade shrinks, millions of workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain.Poverty will rise as they sink into informal work or move back to the land.The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below the level of extreme poverty this year.發展中國家的情況就不一樣了，只不過結果會更人頭疼。隨著貿易萎縮，數以百萬計的工人正失去他們在全球供應鏈條底端的立錐之地。他們轉向非正式工作或者回到農村，伴隨而來的是貧困問題的抬頭。世界銀行預計，今年將有約5300萬人降到極端貧困線以下。

Politics dictates that governments must intervene energetically to help.That’s partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swing back and partly because, having just given trillions of dollars to the banks, politicians will be under pressure to put vast amounts of money into saving jobs.But help cannot be measured in dollars alone.Badly designed policies can be self-defeating.After the recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s, Europe’s rigid labour-markets kept unemployment high for decades.政治上，政府必須全力介入進行援助。這一方面是因為多年以來資本在利潤中占去了很大份額，重心注定要返回；另一方面是因為給了銀行萬億計美元的當政者們承擔著巨大的壓力，需要大量注資來挽救就業崗位。然而挽救不能僅以美元來衡量。錯誤的決策反倒會弄巧成拙。自1970年代和1980年代初期的經濟衰退以來，歐洲缺乏靈活度的勞動力市場就使失業率幾十年來居高不下。

Governments are piling in with short-term help for workers.In America, which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world, extending unemployment benefits was, rightly, part of the recent stimulus package.Japan is giving social assistance to “non regular” workers, a group that has long been ignored.In general, however, it makes more sense to pay companies to keep people in work than to subsidise unemployment.Many countries are topping up the earnings of workers on shortened weeks or forced leave.各國政府正為勞動者提供大量的短期援助。美國的社會保障體系在富裕國家中處于最低，而最近出臺的經濟刺激計劃中，擴大失業救濟金惠及面恰恰是計劃中的一部分。日本為長期以來受忽視的“非固定”勞動者群體提供社會援助。不過總的來說，比起失業補助，資助企業以留住員工才是明智之舉。很多國家通過縮短每周工作日或強制休假來滿足勞工薪資。

These are sensible measures, so long as they are time-limited;for, in the short term, governments need to do all they can to sustain demand.But the jobs crisis, alas, is unlikely to be short-lived.Even if the recession ends soon(and there is little sign of that happening), the asset bust and the excessive borrowing that led to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many years to come.Moreover, many of yesterday’s jobs, from Spanish bricklayer to Wall Street trader, are not coming back.People will have to shift out of old occupations and into new ones.這些措施在一定時限內是合理的：因為在短期內，政府需要盡全力維持需求。只是哎呀，就業危機不大可能只在短期內存在。即便經濟衰退很快結束（而且幾乎不可能發生），引起這場危機的陰云——資金短缺和過度借貸——將在接下來繼續籠罩世界經濟長達數年。更有甚者，不論是西班牙的砌磚匠還是華爾街的交易員，很多昔日的就業崗位會一去不復返。人們將被迫告別現有職位，轉行進入新崗位。

A difficult dance 艱難的舞步

Over the next couple of years, politicians will have to perform a difficult policy U-turn;for, in the long term, they need flexible labour markets.That will mean abolishing job-subsidy programmes, taking away protected workers’ privileges and making it easier for businesses to restructure by laying people off.Countries such as Japan, with two-tier workforces in which an army of temporary workers with few protections toil alongside mollycoddled folk with many, will need to narrow that disparity by making the latter easier to fire.在接下來的幾年中，政治家們不得不做出一個180度的艱難政策轉變：因為從長遠來看，他們需要一個靈活的勞動力市場。這意味著廢除工作補貼計劃，去除受保護勞工的特權，以及幫助企業更方便地裁員從而進行重組。像日本這樣具有雙層勞動力結構的國家，大量埋頭苦干的臨時勞工缺乏就業保障，而被嬌生慣養的上層員工卻能享受到多重保護。這種差別需要通過嚴格上層員工的裁汰制度加以消除。

The euphemism for that is “flexibility”.The bare truth is that the more easily jobs can be destroyed, the more easily new ones can be created.The programmes that help today, by keeping people in existing jobs, will tomorrow become a drag on the great adjustment that lies ahead.As time goes by, spending on keeping people in old jobs will need to be cut, and replaced with spending on training them for new ones.Governments will have to switch from policies to support demand to policies to make their labour markets more flexible.That is going to require fancy political footwork;but politicians will have to perform those steps, because if they fail to, they will stifle growth.這些措施可以委婉地概括為“靈活性”措施。更直白的事實是，現有工作越容易被廢棄，新工作就越容易被創造。眼下這些保住人們飯碗的援助計劃會在今后成為調整適應今后形勢的拖累。隨著時間推移，用在保留人員舊崗位的指出需要削減，取而代之的是為新崗位培養勞動者的開支。各國政府需要從支持需求的政策轉變為建設一個更靈活的勞動力市場。這種轉變需要富有想象力的政治謀劃，但確實當政者們必須完成的步驟：因為如果他們不這樣做，增長將被遏制。

However well governments design their policies, unemployment is going to rise sharply, for some time.At best it will blight millions of lives for years.The politicians’ task is to make sure the misery is not measured in decades.然而，不論政府政策制定的多么完美，失業率在一段時間內仍將陡增。不過充其量它會在幾年內讓數百萬人的生計陷于困境。當政者的任務是不要讓這場不幸延續數十年。

（二）China's trade

Surplus to requirements 順差的需要

Why is China’s trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed?

為什么中國的出口大幅下降時，貿易順差卻在增長？

THIS week revised figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world’s third-biggest economy.At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than Germany’s.China’s exports tumbled by 13%(in dollar terms)in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier.Despite this, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter—50% bigger than in the same period of 2007.What is going on?

本周，修正后的數字顯示中國在2007年已經超越德國成為世界第三大經濟體。在去年初，中國也目標成為世界上最大的出口國，但是年末數月出口的大幅下落意味著他們仍然排在德國之后。按照美元來計算，中國的出口額在第四季度下降了13%，比一年前同期少了3%。盡管如此，中國的貿易順差在第四季度卻以全年增速上升到創紀錄的4570億美元，比2007年同期增長了50%。這其中到底有何玄機？

In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink(see chart).But since then, although exports slumped, imports fell by much more—down by 21% in the 12 months to December.The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment.Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices, and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports(over 50% of total imports).2008年上半年，中國的貿易順差確實出現了縮水（見表）。但是自那以后，盡管出口大跌，但是進口跌的更慘——到12月時，12個月內下跌了21%。進出口雙雙下滑由于受到全球信貸停滯影響而加劇。這是因為信用凍結導致全世界的公司更加難以獲得信用證從而保證支付。出口同樣也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉價的原油和商品價格，以及原材料和用于出口產品的部件進口（占到進口總量的50%以上）表現疲軟。

But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened.Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction—a big user of imported raw materials—has collapsed.但是關于中國進口下降的一個更令人憂慮的原因是：中國的國內需求減小。消費支出和生產投資目前的收縮尚且適當，但是建筑業作為進口原材料的使用大戶也出現了急劇下滑。

With most of the world in recession, China’s exports will continue to slide this year.Nomura forecasts a drop of 6%—the first annual decline for more than 25 years.Imports, on the other hand, are expected to increase.By mid-year, the government’s planned massive increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery.If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009.隨著全球大部分地區陷入衰退，中國的出口今年將繼續下滑。野村證券預測的下滑是6%，為25年來的首次下滑。另一方面，進口預計將增長。到年中時，政府計劃的基礎設施投入大幅增長將會推動原材料和機械進口。這樣的話，中國2009年的貿易順差將會縮水。

The collapse in exports and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan.But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help producers.China’s problem is weak foreign demand, not competitiveness.The best way for China to support its economy—and to help unwind global trade imbalances—is to bolster domestic demand.出口劇減加上隨之而來的中國南方的失業會導致政府考慮人民幣貶值。但這將不僅激起美國新政府的保護主義反彈，對生產者也幫助甚小。中國的問題是在于疲軟的國外需求，而不是競爭力。支持中國經濟乃至幫助全球貿易擺脫不平衡的方法，是加強內需。

One piece of good news this week is that, following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of credit restrictions, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer.China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months.If that is sustained, it could help to boost domestic spending.本周的一個好消息是：隨著減息和政府去除信貸限制，銀行信貸總額到12月的12個月中從去年夏天的14%猛增19%。中國也許是最近幾個月內世界大經濟體中唯一出現信貸增長加速的地方。如果增速持續，它將促進內需支出。

China certainly cannot rely on exports any more.Becoming the world’s biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is spiralling downwards.中國決不能再依賴出口。如果全球貿易持續下降，成為世界最大的出口國亦將無益。

（三）China's stimulus

Got a light? 經濟復蘇已被點燃？

China’s big fiscal package may be starting to work

中國龐大的財政措施可能已經起效

“ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chinese proverb.With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years, every country needs to do its bit to rekindle global demand.The American government, which plans to run a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more.Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that it plans to run a deficit of only 3% of GDP.Was the 4 trillion yuan($586 billion)infrastructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham?

中國有句民諺：“眾人拾柴火焰高。”隨著世界經濟陷入70年以來的最大危機，要重燃全球需求之火，各國都責無旁貸。美國政府計劃今年運行占國內生產總值12%的財政赤字，并號召二十國集團的伙伴們作出更多行動。中國是其中的吝嗇鬼嗎？它在上周公布的預算顯示，中國計劃運行的財政赤字只占GDP的3%。難道去年十一月公布的4億元用于基礎設施建設的措施——相當于GDP的14%——僅僅是在忽悠？

Beijing’s stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year, but it is still the biggest in the world.The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of China’s as a share of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger;America started this year with a much bigger deficit.America’s deficit will increase by more than China’s this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depress tax revenue.The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle.北京的刺激計劃小于去年公布的數字，但這依然是世界范圍內最大的經濟刺激方案。盡管美國運行的財政赤字是中國的四倍，但這并不意味著它的需求性刺激計劃就更大。美國從今年開始就保持了巨大的財政赤字，并且年內赤字增長將高于中國。這主要是因為美國遭受的經濟衰退極大地減少了稅收。財政刺激方案的正確措施應該是調整財政赤字以適應經濟圈的沖擊。

In China, however, even this would understate the true stimulus, because some public-infrastructure investment will be done by state-owned firms or local governments and financed by banks.Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment, tax cuts, consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a stimulus by the central government of about 3% of GDP in 2009.Adding in bank-financed infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4% of GDP.然而在中國，經濟赤字掩蓋了真實的刺激方案，因為一些公共基礎設施投資是由銀行提供資金、國有公司或地方政府實施的。瑞銀的陶旺（音）預計，新的基礎設施建設、減稅、消費補貼以及醫療方面的投資增長將構成總額占到GDP3%的09年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由銀行提供資金支持的基建支出，整個刺激方案將占到GDP的4%。

Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming.In the first two months of this year, total fixed investment was 30% higher in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled.China has been much criticised for focusing its stimulus on investment, rather than consumption, but in China in the short term this is the quickest way to boost domestic demand.中國在鐵路、公路和電網方面的投資已經大規模展開。今年頭兩個月內，固定投資總額較去年同期增長30%，鐵路投資增長了3倍。很多批評認為，中國的刺激方案集中于投資而不是消費，但就短期來看，在中國這是提高國內需求最立竿見影的方式。

What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending, namely monetary policy? Since the start of last year, China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as America’s Federal Reserve has.New figures showing that consumer prices fell by 1.6% in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation, suggesting that China has not done enough to boost demand.But this is not true deflation, where falling prices are accompanied by shrinking money supply and credit.Bank lending grew by 24% over the past year.The true gauge of monetary easing is not the cut in interest rates, but whether it succeeds in spurring new lending.China is one of the few countries in the world where credit has accelerated since the start of the global credit crunch—though some of the lending is of the state-directed sort.那么作為提高國內消費另一手段的貨幣政策又運用的怎樣？從去年年初開始，中國已經將利率砍到美聯儲的一半。新的統計數字顯示，到二月，消費品價格較去年下降了1.6%，從而帶來了第一輪通貨緊縮。這似乎意味著中國在提高需求方面做的尚且不夠。但其實，這并不是真正的通貨緊縮。真正的通縮情況下，貨幣供應和信貸會隨著物價下降而萎縮。去年，銀行借貸增長了24%。對銀根放松的正確估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借貸產生。中國作為世界上少有的幾個國家，其借貸規模在全球信貸危機爆發后不降反升——盡管部分借貸是在國家指導下進行的。

China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing.By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world.中國不僅完成了規模可觀的財政和銀根放松計劃，還通過讓人民幣在過去12個月內升值18%（貿易加權考慮在內），部分促進了世界貨幣經濟增長。

The real question is whether China’s stimulus is big enough? Exports fell by a sharper-than-expected 26% in the year to February and may yet drop further.The 12-month rate of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3.8% in the first two months of 2009, and retail-sales growth slowed to 15%.But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand.As well as the increases in investment and bank lending, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up.Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year.But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply another fiscal boost.真正的問題是：中國的貿易刺激方案數量是否已經夠大？到今年二月，年出口額下降遠超預期，達26%，并且可能繼續下挫。工業生產12個月增幅在09年頭兩個月已將至3.8%，零售業增長放緩至15%。但是仍然有一些國內需求復蘇的暫時性指標。除了投資和銀行貸款增長外，汽車銷售和電力消費同樣得到提振。野村證券的孫明春（音）認為，經濟刺激方案能夠實現8%的年度經濟增長。但是政府已經明確表示，如果經濟持續疲軟，將會提供另外的財政提振方案。

Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8% this year, but they cannot keep the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depressed.The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent.Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending on health care and a social safety net to reduce household saving—all the more reason to speed up such policies.If not, even China’s fire could burn out.這些注入或許可以把今年的經濟增長拉回到8%，但如果全球需求持續悲觀，增速便難以維持。對于中國而言，出口轉內銷的需要已經更加緊迫。中國官員正確地表示，將會用數年時間增量投資公共衛生和社保體系以降低居民存款，使得這些政策的加速實施更加名正言順。否則，即便是中國的經濟火焰也會被撲滅。

（四）The economy's stumble 經濟的絆足

Air pocket or second dip? 氣囊保護還是二次淪陷？

Oct 8th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition

A slump in September prompts thoughts of new stimulus 9月經濟大跌，新刺激方案提上日程

AFTER riding a wave of improvement since the spring, the economy stumbled in September according to the latest figures.Non-farm employment sank by 263,000, which was 62,000 more than in August, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 9.8%.Car sales tumbled as the federal “cash-for-clunkers” programme expired.Manufacturing activity cooled a bit.根據最新統計數據，從春季開始一路高歌猛進的美國經濟在9月大幅下跌。非農業職位減少了26.3萬個，降幅較8月增加了6.2萬個，失業率升至9.8%，增幅0.1%。汽車銷量在聯邦“舊車換現金”計劃結束后陡降。制造業略有放緩。

All this is probably an air pocket;overall economic output almost certainly began to rise in the third quarter of the year and employment will eventually follow.Leading indicators such as the stockmarket and new claims for unemployment benefits are signaling recovery.But it is taking a painfully long time.“We will need to grind out this recovery step by step,” acknowledged Barack Obama on October 3rd, the day after the job data were released.To add insult to injury, the Bureau of Labour Statistics concluded that the economy lost 824,000 more jobs in the year to March than it had originally thought.That would raise the recession’s toll so far to 8m, or 5.8% of the workforce.Assuming no further revisions, the recession now holds the honour of the most severe since the Second World War—exceeding even the 5% loss recorded in 1948.這一切或許是如“氣囊”一般的保護性反應；今年第三季度，經濟總量確已開始上升，就業率最終也將隨之跟進。證券市場以及新失業津貼政策等主要指標都預示著經濟的回暖。然而，前路漫漫。“我們需要逐步恢復經濟，”巴拉克?奧巴馬在就業數據發布的第二天（10月3日）承認說。雪上加霜的是，勞動統計局表示，截至今年5月，美國經濟比預想的進一步減少了82.4萬個職位。這使得經濟衰退造成的總失業人數達到了800萬，占勞動力的5.8%。如果經濟停止進一步惡化，那這將是自二戰以來最嚴重的經濟衰退——其損失超過了1948年所記載的GDP的5%。

The bigger problem is that once employment growth resumes, it will probably remain anaemic.More than half of businesses say they will not return to pre-recession staffing levels until 2012, if ever, according to a September survey of chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine, a sister publication of The Economist.Fully 43% still plan to cull payrolls in the next 12 months.更大的問題在于，就業一旦增加，它仍有可能持續疲軟。根據杜克大學及《CFO Magazine》雜志（與《The Economist》同屬一家公司）財務長在9月的一份報告，超過半數的公司表示即使其人員編制有所回升，但在2012年之前不會回到衰退前的水平。共有43%的公司計劃在未來的12個月中繼續裁減人手。

Mr Obama and his advisers are considering new measures to boost the economy.These will not be on the scale of this year’s $787 billion stimulus programme, which will in any case continue to inject money into the economy until the end of next year.More likely, he will seek to continue some provisions of the stimulus bill, such as extending unemployment benefits for laid-off workers and subsidies to allow them to keep their health insurance.奧巴馬先生和他的顧問們正考慮新的經濟提振措施，但其規模將不及今年7870億美元的刺激計劃，后者于明年年底之前將不遺余力的不斷向經濟注入資金。可能性更大的是，他將延續刺激方案中的某些條款，如下崗職工失業津貼擴面以及健康保險補助等。

The retreat in car sales when cash-for-clunkers ended was a jarring reminder of the withdrawal symptoms that await when other stimulus measures, such as the homebuyer’s credit, are allowed to expire.But extending them would boost a soaring deficit that is estimated to have hit $1.4 billion in the fiscal year that ended on September 30th.Voters are nervous about red ink stretching away into the future, and even Mr Obama’s liberal supporters are turning up the heat.This week Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said a value-added tax should be “on the table”.It may yet come to that, though introducing such a tax too early would risk choking off the recovery and creating a brand new tax that would give the president’s enemies a field-day.No one said his job was easy.“舊車換現金”計劃結束所帶來的汽車銷量下降預示了在諸如購房貸款等刺激措施期滿結束后經濟所將經歷的退縮癥狀。但是，如果繼續實行此類措施，那將會為9月30日截止的本財政年帶來預計高達14億美元的財政赤字。選民們對未來源源不斷的財政赤字憂心忡忡，甚至是奧巴馬先生的自由派支持者都在火上澆油。本周，眾議院議長南希?佩洛西表示，征收增值稅應該 “提上日程”。增值稅遲早會付諸實施。然而，過早的出臺此類稅收將有可能阻礙經濟恢復，同時，征收新稅將會為總統的勁敵們提供反擊機會。大家都知道，奧巴馬先生過得不容易。

（五）Signs of economic cheer 經濟振奮之征兆

The sun also rises 太陽照常升起

Aug 6th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition

The economy may be pulling out of recession but unemployment is still surprisingly high.Celebrations should be delayed 雖然美國經濟可能正從衰退中抽身而出，但是失業率仍然居高不下，慶祝理應押后。

WHEN Barack Obama visited Elkhart, Indiana, in early February, a few weeks after his inauguration, it was a sombre affair.In the previous 12 months the area’s unemployment rate had more than tripled to 18.3 %.The president pleaded for the passage of a massive fiscal stimulus, insisting that “doing nothing is not an option.” By the time he returned to Elkhart on August 5th he was quite a bit sunnier.Local factories are “coming back to life”, he proclaimed.A few days earlier he had declared the economy to have done “measurably better” than expected.在早前的2月份，就職數周的奧巴馬總統到訪了印第安娜州的埃爾德哈特。總統此行籠罩著一層陰郁的氣氛，因為在此前的十二個月當中，當地的失業率達到了18.3%，是原來的三倍還多。總統隨即懇求通過大規模財政刺激方案，并堅持說，“絕不能坐以待斃。”8月5日，當再次來到埃爾德哈特時總統心情愉悅了一些，他表示本地工廠正在“恢復生機。” 幾天之前，他已經宣布了經濟已比預期有“顯著好轉”的消息。

Mr Obama’s good spirits are well grounded: America’s recession appears to be coming to an end.On July 31st the government reported that real gross domestic product(GDP)contracted in the second quarter, but at only a 1% annual rate.Much of that decline reflected business’s determination to keep factories and workers idle and fill new orders out of existing inventory.Now, stocks are so depleted that production will soon have to restart.奧巴馬的好精神是有根有據的，因為美國的衰退似乎正趨于結束。7月31號的政府報告中指出，第二季度的國內生產總值雖然收縮，但僅為年率收縮1%。而此收縮很大程度上反映了暫時閑置工廠和工人，用存貨交付訂單的商業決策。現在存貨已經消耗殆盡，恢復生產勢在必行。

The clutch of data now available for July has strengthened expectations that GDP will rise in the current quarter by as much as 3%.An index of manufacturing activity rose to its highest level since last August, and manufacturers reported that new orders were growing briskly, the best in over two years.Car sales jumped 15% to an annualised 11.2m and manufacturers are ramping up production.Sales of existing houses have risen.Even battered Elkhart got some good news: on August 4th Dometic, a supplier of recreational-vehicle parts, said that with some help from local incentives it would add 240 jobs to its operation in the town.現有的很多7月份數據都為之前的預期--本季度GDP將會增長3%，提供了有力支持。制造業活躍指數提升到了8月份以來最高，制造商報告說新訂單增長活躍，達到兩年來最佳水平；汽車銷量飆升15%，按年率計達1,120萬輛，制造商也正在加大生產；現房的銷售量有所提升。就連備受折磨的埃爾德哈特也有喜訊傳來：在8月4號，一個名為Dometic的游藝車部件供應商說，在本地刺激因素的幫助下，公司將在本市增添240個工作崗位。

Mr Obama and his aides have wasted no time in crediting the $787 billion fiscal stimulus for spurring this recovery.In fact the stimulus’s contribution so far has been relatively modest.More important was last autumn’s massive injection of public capital, loans and loan guarantees into the financial system, and this spring’s bank stress tests.These stopped the spiral of declining asset prices, credit withdrawals and bank failures that had threatened to turn a recession into a depression.為了刺激經濟復蘇，奧巴馬總統和他的助手們馬不停蹄地投入到了7870億美元的財政刺激計劃中。事實上，到目前為止這個刺激計劃似乎貢獻平平。相比之下，去年秋季金融體系的大規模公有資本注入，提供給金融體系的大量貸款和貸款擔保，以及今年春季的銀行壓力測試卻發揮了更大作用。這些措施阻止了急劇下滑的資產價格、信貸退出和銀行倒閉，將經濟從衰退滑向大蕭條的危急關頭中拉了回來。

One of the most encouraging bits of news is that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of house prices fell just 0.2% between April and May, the smallest fall in two years.Stable house prices would do wonders in reducing loan delinquencies, shoring up the banks’ balance-sheets and restoring the flow of credit.最振奮人心的消息莫過于在4月到5月之間S&P/Case-Shiller（美國房價的領先衡量標準）20大城市房價指數僅下跌0.2%，是兩年來最小幅度。穩定的房價對減少貸款拖欠會起到奇效，還可以支撐銀行的資產負債表，起到恢復信貸流動的作用。

Despite the good news, Mr Obama’s approval ratings, though high, are slipping.This, in part, is because the single most important economic benchmark, employment, remains grim, surprisingly so.Unemployment usually responds to economic growth in a relationship that was captured by an economist, Arthur Okun, in the 1960s.But it has risen more during this recession than most formulations of Okun’s Law would suggest.消息有好有壞，奧巴馬總統的支持率雖然仍然算高，但是正處于下滑狀態，部分原因應歸咎于并無好轉的就業形勢（就業是一項最為重要的單一經濟基準），在經濟好轉的前提下這樣的就業形勢著實令人吃驚。經濟學家亞瑟歐坤在十九世紀六十年代捕捉到，失業率與經濟增長有關并通常隨之做出反應。但是在此次衰退中，失業率的上升幅度遠比歐坤法則的眾多公式推導出的幅度大的多。

The publication last week of revisions to earlier GDP data explains some of the discrepancy.The revisions show that GDP has declined a cumulative 3.7% since the end of 2007, thus tying with 1957-58 as the deepest recession since the Depression(before these revisions, the decline was shown to be 2.5%).Even so, Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, says that Okun’s Law would have predicted an unemployment rate of just 8.6% during the second quarter, whereas it actually averaged 9.3%.上周公布的GDP修改數據可以解釋一些不符之處。修改數據顯示自2007年底GDP累計下降3.7%，可堪比發生在1957到58年自大蕭條以來最嚴重的衰退（修改前的數據顯示下降僅為2.5%）。即便如此，摩根大通的經濟學家邁克爾?費拉里說，按照歐坤法則預測第二季度的失業率應僅為8.6%，而實際的失業率達到平均9.3%。

Several factors are at work.Expanded unemployment-insurance benefits encourage some workers to keep looking for a job rather than drop out of the workforce altogether, adding perhaps half a percentage point to the unemployment rate, according to the Fed.The evisceration of their wealth may have led people to look for work rather than retire or stay at home with the children.成因存在于幾方面。擴大的失業保險收益鼓勵著一些人繼續尋找工作而不是徹底退出勞動大軍。根據美聯儲消息，這部分人口大約占失業率的0.5%。做了財富切除手術的人們更可能選擇找工作而不是退休或回家帶孩子。

And firms have been unusually quick to slash payrolls.Some may be husbanding cash more carefully because of the credit crunch.Others may simply be more pessimistic about an eventual recovery.Whatever the reason, one result is that productivity is rising, cushioning profit margins.Robert Hall of Stanford University, who heads the academic committee that dates recessions, says Okun devised his law in an era when productivity usually fell during recessions: “When productivity rises, the law fails.Though I was a great fan of Okun’s, I’m afraid his law is obsolete.”

各公司對于削減工資表現得異乎尋常地敏捷。因為信貸緊縮的緣故，一些公司可能更為仔細的節約現金，另一些可能只是對最終到來的經濟恢復更加悲觀。無論是什么原因，得到的結果之一就是生產率上升的同時利潤率下降。斯坦福大學的羅伯特?霍爾是判斷經濟衰退起始期的學術委員會委員長，他表示歐坤是在經濟衰退中通常生產率降低的時代創造出歐坤法則的，“當生產率上升，法則失效。盡管作為一個曾經狂熱的歐坤迷，我還是得說他的法則已經過時了。”

The difference with Europe is especially striking.In the euro zone GDP has fallen further than in America but unemployment has risen less(see chart).Employers are slower to sack workers than in America, partly thanks to government subsidies that encourage them to shorten working hours instead(see article).This means that European unemployment will probably be slow to fall once GDP recovers.美國與歐洲的差距尤為顯著。在歐元區GDP下降幅度比美國要大但是失業率的上升卻不及美國（如圖）。歐洲雇主們不像美國雇主們那樣急于解雇員工，這應部分歸功于政府補助，用以鼓勵他們用縮短勞動時間來取代解雇員工的做法（見文章）。這就意味著一旦GDP恢復，歐洲失業率將很可能緩慢回落。

But it looks as if it will be slow to come down in America as well.Firms are unlikely to do much hiring until growth seems durable, and so far it does not.Replenishing inventory will be a temporary fillip without an increase in consumer demand.Car sales have been strong in great part because of the federal cash-for-clunkers programme, which allows Americans to get up to $4,500 for their old car when they exchange it for a new one.The programme was supposed to run until November 1st but its $1 billion was snapped up within days of its start on July 24th.The House of Representatives has voted for an extra $2 billion and at mid-week the Senate was expected to do likewise.But cars bought now may mean fewer cars bought later.然而美國失業率似乎也將緩慢回落。企業在出現穩定增長之前不會大量雇傭人員，而到目前為止還未看到穩定增長跡象。補充商品存貨只是一個短暫刺激，消費需求不會因此增長。聯邦政府的“舊車換現金”計劃是給予通過以舊換新方式購買新車的消費者拿到最多4500美元的補助，因此美國汽車銷售大幅度增長。原本支持該計劃進行到11月1號為止的10億資金在7月24號活動開始之后的幾天之內就耗盡了。眾議院已經投票通過了為該計劃追加20億美元的決議，此議案預計本周三也將通過參議院審議。但是現階段踴躍的汽車銷售意味著未來階段汽車銷量將會少之又少。

If growth peters out again later this year, it will dash the expectations Mr Obama has done so much to raise by touting his stimulus.Dick Moore, Elkhart’s mayor, has been so enthusiastic about federal support that some county officials harrumph that he sleeps in Obama pyjamas.Though the president obligingly promised $39m for a local unit of Navistar to make electric trucks, it will take time for the firm to scale up production and hire workers.Meanwhile, Dorinda Heiden-Guss, who heads the county’s economic-development group, has been barraged with requests from companies seeking incentives.But many of them do so without a semblance of a business plan.如果在今年晚些時候經濟再次逐漸停止增長，人們對未來預期的信心就會煙消云散。這信心是靠著奧巴馬總統兜售他的經濟刺激計劃辛辛苦苦建立起來的。埃爾得哈特市長迪克?摩爾對聯邦資助表現地甚為積極致使一些本市官員不恥地說他和奧巴馬同穿一條褲子。雖然總統親切地作出了給名為納威斯達的地方單位撥款3900萬美元的保證，用以制造電動卡車，但是進行大規模生產和雇傭員工仍需要很多時間。與此同時，本市經濟發展組組長Dorinda Heiden-Guss還在經受來自各公司要求尋找經濟刺激點的槍林彈雨，可是它們中的許多公司就連裝裝樣子的企業計劃都沒有。

Another caveat: all numbers are subject to revision, perhaps years later.Even the Depression is getting worse.According to the latest revisions, GDP fell 26.7% between 1929 and 1933: the pre-revision figure was a mere 26.6%.Today’s green shoots could still be revised away.另一個警告：所有數字已修改數字為準，而數字可能在幾年以后才會修改，即使是大蕭條時期也是如此，數字越改越差。根據最新的數據顯示在1929到1933年間GDP下滑26.7%，在此之前的修改數字僅為26.7%。今日的經濟增長春芽有朝一日也可能被修剪得所剩無幾。

（六）China’s economy

中國經濟Slower boat from China “中國號”減速

Oct 20th 2008 | GUANGZHOU From Economist.com

Growth slows in China, as the global economic slump takes its toll 由于世界經濟不景氣的影響，中國經濟增速放緩

Shutterstock PERHAPS it should not be considered surprising.On Monday October 20th China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that economic growth in the third quarter was 9% year-on-year, heady by American or European standards, but down from 10.1% in the previous three months(which itself was lower than the quarter before that), and the worst overall since early 2003.Consensus predictions had been for a more modest decline amid fading hope that China’s economy was fundamentally “decoupled” from the West.It is now becoming necessary, on a near daily basis, to re-evaluate just how much independence its economy enjoys.也許這不值得大驚小怪。周一（10月20日）中國國家統計局發布第三季度經濟數據：相對去年同期增長9％。以歐美標準來說，這已經非常令人滿意了，但卻比上一季度的10.1％低了不少（上一季度相對于更前的一個季度的經濟增速已經降低了）。第三季度的經濟增長率是中國自2003年年初以來的最低值。而在此前中國經濟能夠完全與西方“脫鉤”的希望消失的氛圍中，普遍預計中國經濟增速會有一個更溫和的下降。現在依照最近的每日數據來重新評估中國的經濟享有多大的獨立性顯得非常有必要了。

It is growing harder to say that China is relatively immune from global financial and economic problems.This month alone, two big companies, Smart Union Group, a toymaker, and FerroChina, a steel producer, have gone into liquidation.For the rare company whose closing receives publicity, thousands, if not tens of thousands, shut without a sound.Early this year, southern China suffered from shortages of workers and shoe factories were discouraging orders of boots or any other product that required lots of work and materials.All of that has now reversed.There is a surplus of workers and an absence of orders, with no sign of any recovery.現在越來越難說中國是否能相對地不受全球金融危機的影響。單是這個月，兩個大型公司，玩具制造商合俊集團和鋼鐵制造商中國金屬就已經進入破產清算程序。除了這些極少數有公開消息倒閉的公司外，還有成千上萬的公司無聲無息地消失了。今年早些時候，中國南方遭受了“勞動荒”，好多鞋廠無法完成靴子和其它需要眾多勞動力和原料的訂單。所有這些情況，現在已經完全顛倒過來了：這里擁有過剩的勞動力但卻缺乏訂單，而且沒有一點復蘇的跡象。

One of the most important events in the sales calendar for China is the historic Canton Trade Fair, which brings together a vast number of the country’s manufacturers with swarms of buyers from around the world.The first part of the autumn session ended on October 19th and there was little happy news to report.In a good year hotels will double rates and turn away guests.This time around, rates were high but rooms were abundant.The fair itself was far from empty but the crowds, by usual standards, were thin, with a notable absence of Americans and Europeans, and many complaints about a lack of orders.A year ago sellers demanded escalation clauses in their contracts because of rising commodity prices.This time a buyer from an Oman construction-materials company said that he was receiving a similar benefit from any price decline, and prices, he added, were falling much faster now than they had been rising then.在中國貿易日歷上最重大的事件之一就是久負盛名的廣交會。在這里有著全國各地的制造商和來自世界各地的采購商。秋季廣交會的第一部分已于10月19日結束，但是幾乎沒有什么好消息值得報道。在好的年份，廣州的酒店會雙倍收費甚至客滿拒入。但這次，酒店費用依然很高但是卻有大量空閑。雖然廣交會上不至于門庭冷落，但是以通常標準來看，在歐美重要客戶缺席的情況下，人流不算擁擠。許多參展商抱怨訂單太少。而在一年前這些參展商還由于大宗商品價格的上升而要求提高在訂貨合同里加上價格自動調整條款。而今年，一位來自阿曼的建筑公司的客戶表示他從價格下跌中獲利不少，而且他還補充說，價格下跌的速度要比其之前上升的速度快得多。

China’s slowing cannot, however, be blamed on exports alone.There were warning signs all over the place, says Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, pointing to investment, consumption(despite a nominal, year-on-year rise in retail sales in September of 23%)and government spending.Sales of cars, clothing, air tickets and property have all fallen;production of steel has declined too.A bit, but only a bit, of this could be attributed to planned shut-downs at the time of the Olympics.然而中國經濟增速放緩不能僅將責任歸咎于出口問題。渣打銀行的Stephen Green表示，中國經濟到處都出現警報信號，諸如投資、消費（盡管九月份名義零售額9月份增長23％）和政府開支。汽車、服裝、機票和房地產的銷售都在下降，鋼鐵生產量同樣也在下降。這些僅有一小部分原因歸咎于奧運的原因而關閉了一些工廠。

If there is any cause for optimism it is that some of the drag was the result of the government’s own efforts in the past year—a different era, in hindsight—to prevent overheating.In this, there is some hope.China’s financial position is not perfect, as non-performing loans are rising and some city banks are suspected of having problems, but there appears to be substantial room to relax fiscal and monetary policies.Inflation is declining.The big national banks appear to be in good condition, with abundant liquidity because of lending caps that have become increasingly stringent over the past two years.China’s government is in a strong financial position.Savings rates for the Chinese are high.如果有什么值得樂觀的話，那就是經濟增長放緩部分的原因是由于中國政府自己去年（現在看來，那是一個完全不同時代）努力阻止經濟過熱的結果。基于此，現在仍有希望。由于一些不良貸款增加以及一些城市銀行被懷疑存在問題，中國的金融狀況不是非常完美，但是仍有足夠的空間來放松財政和貨幣政策。大型國有銀行看來狀態非常好，由于在過去兩年里貸款上限已經被非常嚴格地執行了，所以他們的流動性非常充足。中國政府的財政狀況非常好。中國人民的儲蓄率非常高。

As a result, there is abundant room for more aggressive fiscal policies, continuance—if not expansion—of credit, and domestic growth in consumption.Rumours of the potential government response are widespread.Export-targeted tax rebates that were repealed last year will be resumed.Also in the pipeline is the removal of transaction fees on sales of property.Bigger government spending on water and transport projects is also expected.All this should stimulate demand, if not immediately.Collectively, these actions should mitigate some of the impact of the global downturn, but mitigate is not the same as offset.If the global panic has done nothing else, it has been brilliant at revealing the collective dependency of even the fastest developing economy on the developed world’s prosperity.因此，中國積極的財政政策的實施，即便不算擴張的也是持續的信貸投放和國內消費的增長仍有非常大的空間。最近，有關中國政府可能會有舉措的傳言四起。去年被廢除的出口指標退稅可能會被恢復。而且房地產交易契稅也正在被考慮取消。政府還可能增大在用水和交通項目上的開支。這些都會直接或者間接地刺激需求。這些措施都將減緩世界經濟下降帶來的壓力，但是緩和不等于抵消。不能說全球經濟動蕩啥作用也沒有，至少它揭示了世界最快經濟體和發達國家繁榮興盛的共同關系。

（七）Emerging markets All fall down都跌了

Oct 9th 2008 From The Economist print edition Firms in developing countries struggle to escape their roots發展中國家中的公司掙扎著逃命

STOCKMARKET bubbles often take a genuine improvement in economic orcorporate performance, and then vastly overestimate its effect.Equityinvestors in emerging markets must wonder if they have once again beensuckered into giving developing countries the benefit of the doubt.Prices have fallen by almost half this year.On October 6themerging-market shares recorded their biggest one-day fall in at least20 years, prompting all-too-familiar scenes of chaos followed byenforced inactivity, as trading at some bourses was suspended.股市泡沫常常帶來真正的經濟或公司經營改進，接踵而來的是大規模過高估計其效果。新興市場的股市投資者肯定在疑問著他們是否又被騙入,因為發展中國家原來就是疑團。這些國家的股市今年已經下跌近一半。10月6日，新興市場的股價下跌創了20年來的最大跌幅，導致了人們太熟悉的混亂場面，跟著來到是強制性停止活動，例如在一些交易所停止了交易。

For bullish investors one attraction of emerging economies was thefact that they had started with better public finances andbalance-of-payments positions than in previous cycles.How resilientthose positions are is now being tested, as plunging commodity pricessap export earnings and capital flows dry up.Even sound economies maystill be dragged down.As Stephen Jen, an economist at Morgan Stanley,points out, in a crisis “bad things happen to good countries”.對于那些看好的投資人來講，與以前各次循環相比，此次新興經濟一個吸引人地方在于他們以更好的公共債務及收支平衡作為起始。當大宗商品價格暴跌，使得出口收入受到影響，且資本流處于枯竭，這些國家的那些狀況有強勁目前正受到考驗。即使那些最健康的經濟也可能被拉下水。大摩的經濟學家Stephen Jen指出，在危機中“好的國家會發生壞事情”。

Equity investors’ enthusiasm also reflected a more novel idea—thatthe quality of emerging-market companies had improved.Rather than anold guard of conglomerates with hazy ownership and accounting, thethesis ran, there was a new generation of large, well run, globallycompetitive “mega-cap” firms.Indeed, these might even be less riskythan their homelands’ governments.And just as the Dutch economy haslittle bearing on Royal Dutch Shell’s share price, or the Britisheconomy on Vodafone’s, the hope was that these firms might eventuallytranscend their domestic markets.股票投資人的興高采烈也反映了更新穎的看法—新興市場里的公司質量已經改善了。相當普遍的看法是，這些公司已經不是老式那種擁有者及會計制度模糊不清的國際集團，替代而來的是新一代大型，運營良好，世界范圍中有競爭力的“超大型”公司。真的，這些公司的風險可能比他們所在國的政府都少。正如荷蘭經濟不會影響皇家殼牌石油公司的股價一樣，或是英國經濟與Vodafone并不緊連，希望是這些公司可能已經超越了其國內市場。

Some of the claims were over the top.In April 2007 Gazprom, anenergy firm controlled by the Kremlin, made a Dr-Evil-style predictionthat its market value would reach $1 trillion(ten times today’slevel).But there was substance too, exemplified by the wave ofcredible bids for Western companies before the credit crunch, such asthe multibillion approach by Vale, a Brazilian miner, for Xstrata.有些叫法有些太過頭。在2007年月，由俄國政府控制的能源公司Gazprom宣布了一個惡魔式的預測，估計其市值將達到一萬億美金（是目前市值的10倍）。但是這些公司也有行動，在信貸緊縮前不斷出價收購西方公司，例如巴西的礦業公司Vale出手上千億美金收購 Xstrata就是實例。

EPAJust like the old days 跟過去一樣

Why then, have most emerging stockmarkets fallen by more thanWestern ones, particularly in the past month? There are some plausiblefundamental explanations.They may have been more overvalued to startwith.Even after their tumble, the aggregate price-earnings ratio is inline with developed markets, rather than at the discount that has beenthe historical norm.The composition of most indices also makes themvulnerable.Almost two-fifths of the earnings of the FTSEemerging-markets benchmark are from highly cyclical energy orbasic-materials companies—twice the share in developed markets—soearnings forecasts are falling faster than for developed peers.Mostindices under-represent mainland China, which has been relativelyresilient in recent weeks, on the grounds that it is hard forforeigners to invest there.And the top 20 companies account for justover a quarter of the FTSE emerging-markets index.Although that is ahigher proportion than in developed economies, it still leaves a longtail of smaller firms which may be less well run.那么為什么多數新興股市下跌幅度超過西方國家的股市跌幅，特別是上個月的下跌呢？這里有些可信的基本解釋。這些新興股市開始時可能就是估值過高了。就是當他們暴跌后，其本益比才與發達國家的本益比接近，而不是歷史上常見的削價出售。多數這些市場的指數組成也使得這些市場更加不堪一擊。在FTSE新興市場指數中，幾乎五分之二的收益是高度緊跟經濟循環的能源或基本原材料公司，這是發達市場指數中的兩倍。所以收益預測下降比發達市場的要快。中國大陸在多數這些指數中的表現不足（而中國大陸在近幾周來相對強勁），這是基于外國人很難在那里進行投資的觀點。在FTSE新興市場指數中，前20家公司占了超過四分之一的地位。雖然這比發達經濟多了許多，但仍剩下很多運營不如他們的很多較小公司。

As well as quirks of composition and valuation, the harsh reality isthat, as in previous crises, investors are not discriminating much.Most “mega-cap” companies have been penalised more heavily thanrich-world peers in the same industry.Credit-default swaps, a type ofinsurance against bankruptcy, suggest that the borrowing costs of bigemerging-markets firms have spiked along with those of their homecountries’ governments.This is despite the fact that emerging-marketindustrial companies in aggregate, like their governments, have lowerdebt levels than their Western equivalents.Shares of emerging-marketbanks, which with the exception of a few places such as Russia are inreasonable shape, have plunged in sympathy with their Western peers.與指數組成及價值受到扭曲一樣，與以前的危機相同，殘酷的現實是投資人并沒有細細選擇。多數“超大型”公司已經受到的懲罰要比其富裕國家同類行業公司要重得多。信貸違約掉期合同，即防止破產的保險合同，表明大型新興市場公司的貸款費用以及其所在國政府的貸款費用已經大幅上升。盡管在事實上，這些新興市場制造業公司總體來講，與其政府一樣，債務水平都比其西方同類的要低。新興市場的銀行股價，除了幾個例外情況外，例如俄國，均處于合理狀態，但是也與其西方同行一起暴跌。

There may well have been structural improvements in emergingeconomies, but just now markets are having none of it.That couldpresent a buying opportunity.But if capital remains scarce for toolong, and big companies struggle to refinance their foreign debt,investors’ gut reaction could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.雖然新興經濟已經有了結構性改善，但是目前市場中并沒有反映這些。這就給出了買入機會。但是如果資本長期處于短缺狀態，大型公司掙扎著轉貸其外債，投資人的大膽舉動可能會變成自圓其說了。

（八）There is hope 希望仍在 Africa There is hope Oct 9th 2008 From The Economist print edition

Despite the persistence of Africa’s natural and man-made horrors, the latest trend is cheeringly positive

天災人禍不斷 局勢有望好轉

UNTIL the past few weeks of global turmoil, Africa’s doughty band of boosters were feeling they at last had something to smile about.After four decades of political and economic stagnation that kept most of their 800m-odd people in poverty and gloom, the continent’s 48 sub-Saharan countries have been growing for the past five years at a perky overall rate of 5% or so.If they maintain this pace or even bump it up a bit, Africa still has a chance of taking off.Now, with commodity prices likely to fall, world markets sure to shrivel and Western aid set to plateau or even dip, Africa, though more isolated from the global economy than other parts of the world, is bound to suffer from its ill breeze.But maybe not as badly.Once described by this newspaper, perhaps with undue harshness, as “the hopeless continent”, it

could yet confound its legion of gloomsters and show that its oft-heralded renaissance is not just another false dawn prompted by the passing windfall of booming commodity prices, but the start of something solid and sustainable.Despite its manifold and persistent problems of lousy governments and erratic climates(see article), Africa has a chance of rising.經過了持續幾周的全球**，致力于推動非洲發展的改革者們終于可以略展笑顏。政治，經濟上40多年的停滯不前曾使非洲8億的人民的人們陷入貧窮和黑暗，但最近5年來，48個撒哈拉以南的非洲國家正以5%的總體速率飛速發展。如果他們能使這一速率維持甚至略有提高，非洲將有望擺脫貧困。現今日用品價格有望下調，世界市場將必然走向萎縮，相應地，西方的援助也會趨于穩定，甚至有所下降。盡管與其他地方相比，非洲地區相對獨立于全球經濟，卻也難免殃及池魚。“無望的陸地”本報從前曾這樣過于苛刻地描述過這片土地。但也許，現實并非如此糟糕，以至于會讓許多持悲觀態度的人會感到不解，并且不時顯現的復蘇跡象也不只是日用品價格飆升所帶來的表面繁榮，這一切昭示著一個切切實實的開端。盡管不良政權和多變氣候有其重重弊端，非洲仍有望崛起

A long way to go 長路漫漫

Pessimists have plenty of evidence to call on.There have been spurts of growth before, especially when commodity prices have risen sharply.But when those prices have fallen, growth has fizzled.Africa’s few recent successes tend to be set against a previous history of disaster.Ghana, for instance, is often cited as one of the most hopeful cases, but at independence in 1957 it was nearly as well off as South Korea;now, despite its recent bounce, it is still some 30 times poorer in wealth per person.The lively growth in several other hopeful spots—for instance, Mozambique, Rwanda and Uganda—must likewise be set against the horrors of their quite recent past.In fact, the sole country in Africa with a record of consistently strong political and economic progress is Botswana.悲觀主義者仍可言之鑿鑿。過往的日子里，特別是日用品價格飆升之際，經濟增長多是曇花一現。但一旦價格回落，這種漲勢則不堪一擊。然而，非洲近來為數不多的成功例子則與先前災難歷史形成鮮明對比。加納，是一個人們樂于引用的希望之地，但是早在1957年這個國家宣布獨立之時，它的富足程度就可比南韓，而現今，盡管近期經濟局勢略有反彈，但同比于韓國，國民人均財富仍縮水了30倍。另外幾個國家的所謂“希望”，例如莫桑比克，盧旺達，烏干達，也只是與過往苦難形成的鮮明對比。實際上，唯一的一個保有政治經濟上強有力持續增長的國家是博茨瓦納。

Many basic indices remain grim.Africans’ lifespan is still declining, owing largely to the scourge of AIDS, 60% of whose worldwide victims are African.A recent World Bank paper was guarded as to whether the African surge would last.Most of the quicker growth, it notes, is due to soaring revenues enjoyed by just eight sub-Saharan African countries blessed with oil.A third of Africa’s countries—by far the highest proportion in any continent—are trapped in civil wars or cycles of violent unrest.The two biggest in area, Sudan and Congo, are ravaged by strife and misgovernment.Zimbabwe, once a jewel of southern Africa, is still a nightmare, despite a recent agreement to forge a government of national unity.The World Bank paper bemoans Africa’s standards of governance.很多基本指標仍不容樂觀。非洲的人均壽命仍在下降，很大一部分歸因于艾滋病，這一疾病60%的受害者都來自非洲。一份最新的世界銀行報表對于非洲的增長勢頭能否持續持謹慎態度。報表顯示，高于平均速度的大部分增長只是得益于8個撒哈拉以南的產油國由于石油產出所帶來的國民收入。三分之一的非洲國家（目前為止占所有大洲的最高比例）陷于內戰和暴動的漩渦。兩個最突出的例子，蘇丹和剛果，被長年的戰亂和暴政摧毀。津巴布韋，這個曾被稱為南非寶石的地方，盡管最近達成一項致力于建立國家統一政府的協定，如今卻也成了一場噩夢。這份世界銀行的報表對于非洲標準的政府管理表示出悲觀態度。

Perhaps even more worrying, in the past year or so, three of Africa’s leading countries have had heavy setbacks.Nigeria’s election was the shoddiest since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999;Kenya, east Africa’s hub, succumbed to ethnic mayhem after a disputed poll;and South Africa, easily the sub-Saharan continent’s leading power in every way, producing one-third of its entire GDP, has entered an ugly phase of politics, authoritarian if not yet undemocratic, just when it should be setting an example of tolerant pluralism to the rest of Africa.The recent violence against black foreigners is a reminder that the bottom third of South Africans still face gnawing poverty.但也許更令人擔憂的是，大約在去年，非洲大陸的三個巨頭都遭遇了嚴重倒退。自從1999年這個國家轉變為文官統治以來，尼日利亞的大選遭遇了最嚴重的舞弊。肯尼亞，作為東非的軸心，在一次富有爭議的選舉之后經歷了種族迫害。在各個方面作為撒哈拉以南領軍國家的南非，國民生產總值占據整個GDP的三分之一，理應為其他非洲國家樹立包容榜樣，其政府卻接近獨裁的邊緣。最近反對外國黑人的暴力事件提醒世人，三分之一的底層南非人民仍然面對著重重貧困。

All the same, the boosters’ case is stronger than before.Political freedom, however patchy, is commoner than it was a generation ago.Two-thirds of African countries now limit presidential terms;at least 14 leaders(with a few bad exceptions)have felt obliged to step down as a result.Multi-party systems, however fraught, are more usual;the notion of political accountability and choice is more widely accepted.The media, partly because of the internet, are livelier.The latest index of African governance funded by Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born telecoms mogul, suggests a general improvement.與此同時，改革勢頭也更加明朗。政治自由盡管有待完善，卻比上一代更加普遍。三分之二的非洲國家現在已經對總統任期加以限制。至少14位領導人被迫下野。多黨制盡管情勢緊張，卻也普及更廣。政治義務和選擇權的觀念更加深入人心。由于互聯網的部分原因，媒體變得更加活躍。由Mo Ibrahim（出生于蘇丹的電信巨頭）資助設立的最新的非洲行政指數，表明了一種普遍的進步。

The presumption of state control under the rubric of “African socialism”(an illusory third way)has been junked.Most local leaders accept that Africa must join the global economy to prosper, however shaky it looks right now.The mobile-phone revolution has hugely helped Africans, especially poor peasants and traders.Banking systems are modernising and mortgages more readily offered to an emerging middle class.Businessmen around the world have been investing more, especially in Africa’s better-governed countries.Even those that lack natural wealth have grown a bit faster.The spectacular advent of China into Africa’s market is, on balance, a bonus.非洲社會主義（不靠譜的第三種途徑）紅字下的國家統治假設已被證明是一堆垃圾。大多數地方領導人相信，盡管現在看起來局勢不定，非洲繁榮離不開世界經濟。手機革命大大幫助了非洲人民，特別是貧困的農民和商人。銀行系統正處于現代化，信貸業務也對新興的中產階級更加開放。世界各地商人的投資力度也不斷加強，尤其是對治理較好的非洲國家。即使是那些自然資源匱乏的國家增長速度也在加快。中國進軍非洲市場，總的來說，利大于弊。

Another report, co-sponsored by the World Bank, gently dissents from the certitudes of the “Washington consensus” that pure free marketry could cure all, and that Africa must just open up to trade, tighten its fiscal strings and sell off the state.One size in varied Africa does not fit all.The rich world could, for instance, offer time-limited trade preferences.同樣由世行聯合發起的另一項報告，則對“華盛頓共識”頗有微詞，“共識”確信，純粹的自由市場是一劑萬能藥，非洲應當實行貿易開放，加強財政緊縮，清償國家。然而針對非洲國家的不同情況，不能一以概之，比如，富裕國家傾向于提供具有時限的貿易優先權。

Feel each stone as you cross the river 摸著石頭過河

Other devices could help too.America’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000 has spurred African exports by dropping American tariffs.Another promising new mechanism is the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a voluntary code that a score of African countries have adopted, with governments and foreign firms accounting openly for their dealings—in contrast to mineral-rich Congo, whose government ludicrously claimed in 2006 to have received only $86,000 in mineral earnings.The creation of national savings funds in commodity-flush countries is another good idea.On the farming front, issuing individual land titles, no easy task in a continent where much land is still communally held, is another.Pragmatism often beats dogma.其他的方法也會帶來裨益。美洲的“非洲成長與機會2000年法案”，通過下調美洲關稅刺激了非洲出口。另一個方案是“采掘行業透明度行動計劃”，這是一項已有12個非洲國家參與的自愿履行的規則，政府與國外公司將公開交易，與富產礦產的剛果形成鮮明對比（該國可笑地宣稱2006年的礦產收入只有$86,000。對于輕工業國家，國家儲備基金的建立也不失為一個好主意。對于農業方面，將土地定位個人名下也是一個好辦法。在一片土地共有的大陸上，似乎很難成事。現實總是會擊敗教條。

So Africa has a rare chance to break out of its poverty trap.It would be hard even if governments were honest and efficient.Sadly, most are still not.Amid all the grim drawbacks of climate, disease, illiteracy and ethnic division, bad and corrupt government is still by far the biggest.But the news overall is cheerier.And the rich world, troubled as it is, must never give up in its effort to help the poor one to stand on its own feet.所以非洲現在有一個擺脫貧困陷阱的難得機會。即使對于一個誠信高效的政府，這一切仍是不易，更不要說，大多數政府并非如此。算上氣候，疾病，文盲，種族分化種種不利，政府腐敗仍是最大的弊端。但總體的消息還是令人鼓舞。而那些富裕的國家也有他們的煩惱，但他們絕不會放棄幫助貧困國家自力更生的努力。

（九）The credit crunch 信貸危機

Saving the system 拯救系統 Oct 9th 2008 From The Economist print edition

At last a glimmer of hope, but more boldness is needed to avert a global economic catastrophe 最后還有一線希望，為避免一場全球經濟大災難發生，還需要更大膽

CONFIDENCE is everything in finance.Until this week the politicians trying to tackle the credit crunch had done little to restore this essential ingredient.In America Congress dithered over the Bush administration’s $700 billion bail-out plan.In Europe governments have casually played beggar-my-neighbour politics, with countries launching deposit-guarantee schemes that destabilize banks elsewhere.This week, however, saw the first glimmers of a comprehensive global answer to the confidence gap.對金融而言，信心就是全部。到本周為止，那些努力應對信貸危機的政要們在重建信心這一基本因素上作為甚少。在美國，國會猶豫不決地通過了布什政府7000億美元的救市計劃。在歐洲，政府間隨意地玩著以鄰為壑的政治游戲，各國紛紛對本國存款進行擔保，沒有顧及這樣會動搖其他國家的銀行。然而，還是讓人們看到了第一束希望的曙光——全球將一致行動彌合信心裂縫。

One clear sign was an unprecedented co-ordinated interest-rate cut on October 8th by the world’s main central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and(officially a coincidence)the People’s Bank of China.Various continental European countries also set about recapitalizing their banks.But the most astounding developments were in America and Britain.The Fed doubled the amount of money available to banks on a short-term basis to $900 billion and announced that it would buy unsecured commercial paper directly from corporate borrowers.More surprisingly, Gordon Brown’s government, hitherto the ditherer par excellence, produced the first systemic plan for dealing with the crisis, not just providing capital and short-term loans to banks but also offering to guarantee new debt for up to three years.一個明確的信號是10月8日全球主要央行空前地聯合降息，其中包括美聯儲、歐洲央行、英國央行（英格蘭銀行）和中國央行（官方稱是巧合）。許多歐洲大陸國 家也開始計劃調整銀行資本結構。但最令人驚駭的進展發生在美國和英國。美聯儲將對其短期內對銀行提供的貸款規模擴大到9000億美元，為原來的兩倍，并宣布將直接從企業購買未擔保的商業票據。更令人驚訝的是，迄今為止不知所措到極點的戈登?布朗政府采取了應對危機的第一個系統的計劃，不僅向銀行提供資本和 短期貸款，還對三年內到期的新債進行擔保。

This is certainly progress, but it is not enough(see our extended finance section).The world’s finance ministers and central bankers, gathering in Washington, DC, this weekend for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, should deliver a simple message: more will be done.The world economy is plainly in a poor state, but it could get a lot worse.This is a time to put dogma and politics to one side and concentrate on pragmatic answers.That means more government intervention and co-operation in the short term than taxpayers, politicians or indeed free-market newspapers would normally like.這的確是個進步，但還不夠。本周末，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）和世界銀行的年會將在華盛頓召開，與會的世界各國財長和央行行長應該傳遞出一條簡單的信 息：還會有更多行動。世界經濟很顯然處于糟糕的境地，但它很可能會更糟糕。現在正是將教條和政見擱到一旁，集中尋找實實在在的解決方式的時候。意即，就眼前來說政府干預和合作更重要，而不是報紙通常所青睞報道的納稅人、政客或是對自由市場的質疑（諸如此類問題）。

The patient writhing on the floor 在地板上痛苦掙扎的病人

If the panic that has choked the arteries of credit across the globe is not calmed soon, the danger will increase that output in rich economies will not simply shrink, but collapse.The same could happen in many emerging markets, especially those that rely on foreign capital.No country or industry would be spared from the equivalent of a global financial heart attack.如果阻塞了全球信貸大動脈的恐慌不能迅速被平息，發達國家經濟面臨的風險將會增加，其產出不會只是收縮，而是崩潰。同樣的危機還會發生在新興市場，尤其是那些依賴外資的地區。沒有一個國家或是產業會在全球金融心臟病發作時毫發無傷。

Stockmarkets are in a funk.But the main problem remains the credit markets.In the interbank market the prices banks pay to borrow money from each other are still near record highs.Meanwhile corporate borrowers have found it hard to issue commercial paper, as money-market funds have fled from all but the safest assets.In emerging markets bond spreads have soared and local currencies plunged.And whole countries have begun to get into trouble.The government of Iceland has had to nationalise two of its biggest banks and is frantically seeking a lifeline loan from Russia.Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, says there could be balance-of-payments problems in up to 30 developing countries.各國股市都處在恐慌之中。但主要的問題仍在信貸市場。銀行間拆借市場的利率繼續創出新高。同時，隨著貨幣市場資金紛紛逃離到最安全的資產上，企業借貸者發 現商業票據難以發行。新興市場上，債券價格飛漲，本國貨幣貶值。有些國家已經開始陷入困境。冰島政府被迫將其最大的兩家銀行國有化，并發狂似的向俄羅斯尋求續命貸款。世界銀行主席羅伯特?佐立克表示，超過30個發展中國家將出現國際收支差額問題。

The damage to the real economy is becoming apparent.In America consumer credit is now shrinking, and around 159,000 Americans lost their jobs in September, the most since 2003.Some industries are hurting badly: car sales are at their lowest level in 16 years as would-be buyers are unable to get credit.General Motors has temporarily shut some of its factories in Europe.Across the globe forward-looking indicators, such as surveys of purchasing managers, are horribly gloomy.實體經濟受到的損傷正在逐漸顯現。美國消費信貸在收縮，9月失業人數高達159,000人，創2003年以來最高。一些產業也被嚴重挫傷：因為意愿購車消費者無法取得貸款，汽車銷售量降到16年以來最低。通用汽車臨時關閉了數家歐洲工廠。全球經濟展望的指標，如采購經理人指數等，都表現得十分低迷。

If the odds of a rich-world recession have risen towards a near certainty, the emerging world as a whole is slowing rather than slumping.China still seems fairly resilient.Taken as a whole, though, growth in the world economy seems likely to slow below 3% next year—a pace that many count as recessionary.So the prospects are grim enough, but a continuing credit drought would make this much worse.如果說發達經濟衰退的可能性已經漸成定局，新興經濟體集體增長下滑的可能性則高于衰退。中國經濟的復原能力看起來仍然非常強勁。整體而言，全球經濟明年的增速極有可能下滑到3%以下，普遍將這一速度視為經濟進入衰退期。因此，前景可謂十分嚴峻，但信貸市場持續干涸可能將情況變得糟糕得多。

Lessons old and new 新舊教訓

The lesson of history is that early, decisive government action can stem the pain and cost of banking crises.In the 1990s Sweden moved to recapitalise its banks quickly and recovered quickly;in Japan, where regulators failed to tackle toxic debt, the slump lasted for most of the decade.The twist is that this credit crisis is deeper(it affects many more types of markets)and broader(many more countries).Any solution has to be both more systemic and more global than before.One country trying to mend one part of its banking system will not work.歷史的教訓是，政府及早、決斷采取措施能夠減輕危機造成的痛苦和付出的代價。20世紀90年代，瑞典政府快速地向銀行注資，其恢復的速度也很快；而在日本，執政者未能處理壞死債務，經濟陷入長達近10年的衰退。與以往不同的是，這次信貸危機更嚴重（影響到各類市場），范圍更廣（波及到更多國家）。任何解決辦法都必須比以往更系統化、更全球化。單一國家試圖修正其銀行系統某一方面的問題是徒勞的。

The idea of a comprehensive solution sounds simple, if expensive.But politicians have found it hard to grasp.Europeans have remained stubbornly wedded to the notion that the mess was “Made in America”;John McCain and Barack Obama talk as if it was all down to the greed of modern bankers.But financial excesses existed centuries before a brick had been laid on Wall Street.As our special report this week lays out, today’s bust—and the bubble that preceded it—had several causes besides dodgy lending, including a tide of cheap money from emerging economies, outdated regulation, government distortions and poor supervision.Many of these failures were as evident outside America as within it.全面的解決之道聽起來很簡單，雖然代價昂貴。但政要們未能領會這一點。歐洲各國始終頑固地執著于這場麻煩是“美國制造”的理念。約翰?麥凱恩和巴拉克?奧巴馬則將一切都歸咎于現代銀行家的貪婪。然而，早在建造華爾街數個世紀之前，金融過剩的問題就存在了。我們在本周的特別報道里指出，造成今天的失敗和此前的泡沫的原因不僅只有高風險地借貸，還包括來自新興經濟體的廉價資本潮，過時的規則，體制扭曲和監管不力。這些失誤在美國和其他地方都很明顯。

With a flawed diagnosis of the causes of the crisis, it is hardly surprising that many policymakers have failed to understand its progression.Today’s failure of confidence is based on three related issues: the solvency of banks, their ability to fund themselves in illiquid markets and the health of the real economy.The bursting of the housing bubble has led to hefty credit losses: most Western financial institutions are short of capital and some are insolvent.But liquidity is a more urgent problem.America’s decision last month to let Lehman Brothers fail—and the losses that implied to money-market funds that held its debt—prompted a global run on wholesale credit markets.It has become hard for banks, even healthy ones, to find finance;large companies with healthy cash flows have also been cut off from all but the shortest-term financing.That has increased worries about the real economy, which itself adds to the worries about banks’ solvency.鑒于對這場危機癥結的診斷有誤，許多決策者未能把握其進展也就不足為奇了。今天的信心崩潰建立在三個相互關聯的問題上：銀行的償付能力，銀行在流動性凍結的市場上融資的能力，實體經濟是否健康。房地產市場泡沫的破裂造成嚴重的信貸損失：大多數西方國家金融機構資金短缺，部分已經破產。但流動性的問題更急迫。美國上個月讓雷曼兄弟破產加速了全球大規模信貸市場的流動性問題，其破產造成的損失牽連到持有其債券的貨幣市場基金。銀行融資難度越來越大，即使是健康的銀行。現金流良好的大型企業也得不到貸款，只能獲得最短期的融資。對實體經濟的擔憂由此增加，反過來又進一步增加了對銀行償付能力的擔憂。

This analysis suggests that governments must attack all three concerns at once.The priority, in terms of stemming the panic, is to unblock clogged credit markets.In most cases that means using central banks as an alternative source of short-term cash.This week the Fed took another step in that direction: by buying commercial paper, it is now in effect lending direct to companies.The British approach is equally bold.Alongside the Bank of England’s provision of short-term cash, the Treasury says it will sell guarantees for as much as ￡250 billion($430 billion)of new short-term and medium-term debts issued by the banks.That is risky: if left for any length of time, those pledges give banks an incentive to behave recklessly.But a temporary guarantee system offers the best chance of stemming the panic, and if it were internationally co-ordinated it would be both more credible and less risky than a collection of disparate national promises.基于上述分析，政府應該立刻對這三個問題全面出擊。首先，在阻止恐慌方面，是為堵塞的信貸市場清除障礙。在大多數情況下，這意味著將中央銀行作為一個能夠 提供短期資金的來源。本周美聯儲朝著這個方向又邁進了一步：通過購買商業票據，美聯儲現在可以直接向企業提供有效的貸款。英國的舉措也是同樣大膽。除英格蘭銀行（英國央行）提供短期資金外，財政部還表示將為銀行發行的新短期和中期債券提供2500億英鎊（4300億美元）的擔保。這種做法存在風險：如果沒有限定期限，這些保證會給銀行不顧風險地經營提供動機（道德風險）。但暫時的擔保系統是阻止恐慌的最佳選擇，如果是全球一致行動，則比大量國家各自的承諾更加可靠、風險更低。

The second prong of a crisis-resolution strategy must aim to boost banks’ capital.A new IMF report suggests Western banks need some $675 billion of new equity to prevent banks from rapidly reducing the number of loans on their books and hurting the real economy.Although there is plenty of private capital sloshing around, there is a chicken-and-egg problem: nobody wants to buy equity in an industry without enough capital.It is becoming abundantly clear that government funds—or at least government intervention—will be necessary to catalyse the rebuilding of banks’ balance sheets.Initially, America focused more on buying tainted assets from banks;now it seems keener on the “European” approach of injecting capital into their banks.Some degree of divergence is inevitable, but more co-ordination is needed.解決危機戰略的第二擊是增加銀行資本金。IMF的一份最新報告指出，西方國家銀行需要大約6750億美元的新增資本，以阻止其賬面上貸款數量快速減少，避免損害到實體經濟。盡管還有大量的私人資本四處流竄，但這是一個雞生蛋蛋生雞的問題：沒有人愿意在一個缺乏足夠資本的行業里購買股權。很顯然，政府必須注資——或至少是政府干預，加速重建銀行的資產負債表。最初，美國更多地集中在從銀行購買問題資產，現在更青睞“歐洲”作法——向銀行注入資本。一些分歧不可避免，但還需要更多的協調。

Third, policymakers should act together to cushion the economic fallout.Now that commodity prices have plunged, the inflation risk has dramatically receded across the rich world.With asset prices plummeting and economies shrinking, deflation will soon be a bigger worry.The interest-rate cuts are an important start.Ideally, policymakers would not use only monetary policy.For instance, China could do a lot to help the rest of the world economy(and itself)by loosening fiscal policy and allowing its currency to appreciate more quickly.第三，決策者應該聯合行動幫助經濟軟著陸。如今，大宗商品價格跳水，通貨膨脹的風險已經戲劇化地從發達國家消退了。隨著資產價格垂直下落和經濟收縮，通縮將很快成為更大的擔憂。各國紛紛降息是一個重要的開端。理想狀態下，決策者不應該僅僅使用貨幣政策。舉例而言，中國可以通過放松財政政策和加速人民幣升值來幫助其他國家經濟（和中國自身）。

A long wait 長久等待

Even in the best of circumstances, the consequences of the biggest asset and credit bubble in history will linger.But if the panic is stemmed, it could be a manageable problem, cushioned by the economic strength in the emerging world.Efforts at international economic co-operation have a patchy record.In the 1980s the Plaza and Louvre accords, designed respectively to push the dollar down and to prop it up, met with mixed success.Today’s problems are deeper and more countries are involved.But the stakes are also much higher.即使在最佳的環境里，史上最大的資產和信貸泡沫破滅的后續效應也將延續很久。但是，如果恐慌能夠消除，在新興市場經濟力量的緩沖下，這場危機會是一個容易解決的問題。國際間經濟協作的成就有著一頁斑駁的記錄。在20世紀80年代，廣場協議和盧浮宮協議的制定分別促成美元貶值和升值，取得了相互混雜的成功。今天的問題更加嚴重，牽涉的國家更多。但賭注也高得多。

（十）The mortgage-rescue plan 抵押貸款救援計劃 Will the bail-out work? 救援計劃會奏效嗎？

Oct 3rd 2008 | NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC From Economist.com

The bail-out becomes law after the House reverses its rejection.Money markets call for urgent attention 救援計劃在眾議院由否決變為通過后成了法案。貨幣市場亟需重點關切

“CRISES have the power to unite us in strange ways.” So said Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader in the House of Representatives, in an article on Friday morning that pleaded for passage of the $700 billion bail-out plan.United they were.The House voted by a huge 263-171 margin for the bail-out, a dramatic reversal of the 228-205 rejection on Monday.On Friday October 3rd 172 Democrats backed the bill, up from 140;91 Republicans did so, up from 65.As the Senate had already approved the bill, it was immediately signed by George Bush.“金融危機使我們以一種陌生的方式團結到一起。”美國眾議院多數黨（民主黨）領袖Steny Hoyer在周五早上一篇請求國會通過7000億救援方案的文章里如是說。他們確實團結到了一起。眾議院以263對171的大規模票數差距通過了救援計劃，這與周一的228對205否決形成了鮮明的對比。在周五（10月3日）的投票中，172位民主黨議員贊成，比周一上升了32人；91位共和黨人贊成，比周一上升了26人。因為參議院已經批準了此項議案，所以很快就會被布什簽署（使之生效）。

The rejection on Monday was caused by conservative Republicans who said it was socialism, by Liberal Democrats who said it did not do enough for poor people, and fears by many that voters would fire them for bailing out Wall Street.The rejection triggered a plunge in stocks and a scramble to sweeten the bill.In the end numerous, mostly unrelated, items have been grafted on, from higher federal deposit-insurance limits to a tax exemption for wooden children’s arrows.The tide was turned because of that, nausea over market turmoil, news that non-farm employment sank by 159,000 in September(the steepest in five years)and because of furious business lobbying.周一眾議院的否決主要是由于兩方面的原因，一是共和黨保守派人士認為這是社會主義行為；二是民主黨自由派人士認為此項方案對窮人幫助不足，并擔心選民因為其拯救華爾街而拋棄他們。周一的否決引發了股市的暴跌并促使政府迅速修改美化此項法案。最終，許多不相關的條款被加入其中，從更高的聯邦儲戶保險限制到兒童玩具工廠的免稅措施。投票形勢之所以改變，是因為眾議員不堪市場混亂，非農勞動人口就業數九月下降159，000（這是五年來的最大降幅）的消息而且還有憤怒的商業團體游說的因素。

Now the real test comes: will it help? The Treasury is expected to take a week to set up the auctions for the first mortgage purchases, and the first purchases could therefore take place within weeks.Henry Paulson, the treasury secretary, could act sooner: he has the authority to buy mortgages from individual institutions or inject capital into them if they are nearing failure.現在，真正的考驗到來了：這個法案是否會奏效呢？財政部計劃用一周的時間來準備安排第一筆購買抵押貸款資產的拍賣會，因此第一筆購買交易會在幾周內完成。財長保爾森很快就會行動：他有權從私人機構購買抵押貸款資產或是給瀕臨倒閉的機構注資。

Speed is of the essence.Banks are loth to lend to each other, except at record punitive rates and for the shortest of periods.Most want their money back within a day.Massive liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve and other central banks have done little to unclog the pipes.速度是極其重要的。銀行間極其不愿意互相拆借，除非對方能夠承受一個破紀錄的懲罰性的利率以及最短的期限。許多銀行希望他們借出的錢能夠在一天內歸還。美聯儲及其它央行的大規模流動性資金注入并未使市場流動性不足的情況改善多少。

Worse, the availability of short-term loans to companies is shrinking at an alarming rate.The market for commercial paper has shrunk by around $600 billion since last summer, with almost $100 billion of the reduction coming in the past week alone.This hurts companies large and small.General Electric has had to raise new capital partly because of funding concerns.Retailers report problems financing purchases of holiday-season inventories.The head of AutoNation, a car dealer, told CNBC that “banks were looking for every excuse to say no…We’ve gone from a credit crunch to a credit panic.” Firms say that some banks are trying to invoke “market disruption” clauses to cut credit lines or raise the fees for renewing them, leaving corporate treasurers unsure how long they can pay employees or buy raw materials.更糟的是，公司可使用的短期貸款正在以驚人的速度下降。商業票據市場自去年六月以來萎縮了約6000億美元，而僅在過去的一周里就減少了1000億美元。這對大大小小的公司都有傷害。通用電器不得不籌集新的資金，部分原因就是由于對融資的憂慮。零售商也報出其在購買假日季節物品的融資上也有問題。汽車銷售商AutoNation的老板告訴CNBC：”銀行在尋找各種理由對你的貸款申請說‘不’?我們已經從信貸緊縮到信貸恐慌了。”銀行在竭力引用”市場混亂 “的條款來減小信貸或是提高費率以使其恢復元氣，但是這使得企業財務主管不能確定他們多久才能給雇員發工資或是多久才能去購買原材料。

The pain is reaching municipalities and states.Alabama’s Jefferson County is on the verge of bankruptcy.California’s governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, has reportedly given warning, in a letter to the Treasury, that his state is running out of cash to fund day-to-day operations and may need an emergency loan of $7 billion from the federal government.這些狀況已經波及各個州和自治市。阿拉巴馬州的杰弗遜郡已經瀕臨破產。加州州長施瓦辛格據說已在一封給財政部長的信中發出警告：他的州維持日常運行的現金即將耗盡，需要從聯邦政府緊急貸款70億美元。

While the Troubled Asset Relief Programme, or TARP, may ultimately unfreeze the mortgage market, restore confidence to banks and restart lending, that may take too long for a far more pressing problem, the blockage in the money markets.Tellingly, the yield on short-term government debt-the most popular destination for investors seeking safety-barely budged after the vote.Bank-to-bank loan spreads fell only slightly.American stockmarkets gave up gains built up in the hours before the vote.問題資產救援計劃（TARP）可能最終會解困抵押市場，重塑銀行信心并重新開始放貸，但是還需要很長時間來解決一個迫在眉睫的問題：貨幣市場的堵塞。非常說明問題的是，短期政府債券（投資者尋求安全的最流行的目的地）的收益在眾議院表決后變化不大。銀行間拆借利差只有略微下跌。美國股市最終將投票前數小時的積累的漲幅完全跌盡。

While the TARP may lift confidence, the timing and extent to which it boosts their capital will depend on the prices paid, which remain unclear.Moreover, the target is moving.Even if house prices stabilise soon, non-mortgage credit will go on deteriorating as the economy shrinks.Bank regulators will have their work cut out as failures mount among small and medium-sized lenders.More will seek sanctuary in the arms of stronger rivals.On Friday Wachovia threw itself at Wells Fargo, only four days after Citigroup had agreed to buy its banking operations in a government-backed deal.Citi threatened to sue.在TARP可能提升信心的同時，它購買資本的時機和范圍程度依賴于支付的價格，而這價格尚未明朗。此外，目標也在轉移。即使房價很快企穩，非抵押信貸會隨著經濟下滑而繼續惡化。隨著倒閉風潮開始在小型和中型的銀行（借貸機構）中蔓延，銀行監管者將會停止他們的工作。許多這樣的中小銀行會投身于大型銀行以尋求庇護。在政府的撮合下，花旗集團答應購買美聯銀行的銀行業務部門四天后，美聯銀行將其賣給富國銀行。花旗威脅將會提出訴訟。

The crisis is intensifying in Europe, where governments have been forced to prop up several banks in the past week.European leaders are due to meet this weekend to discuss forging a more co-ordinated response, possibly including a continent-wide bank-rescue fund.And doubts about solvency are spreading beyond banks.After a sharp drop this week in the share prices of large American insurers, such as MetLife and Prudential, they came under pressure to raise fresh capital as a bulwark against the storm.歐洲的情況更糟。歐洲各國銀行在上周被迫注資支持幾家銀行。歐洲幾國領袖預定將在本周末會面商討出臺更加協調合作的應對措施，可能包括一個整個大陸范圍的銀行拯救基金。而對償付能力的疑慮已經超出銀行范疇，在其它金融機構也蔓延開來。在本周股價急劇下挫后，幾家大型美國保險商，例如MetLife 和 Prudential迫于壓力不得不募集新的資本作為防護堡壘來抵御風暴的襲擊。

Until the TARP shows results, the pressure remains on the Federal Reserve to contain the crisis.Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman and the main driver behind the TARP’s creation, congratulated Congress for demonstrating the “government’s commitment to do what it takes to support and strengthen our economy”.His language was remarkably similar to what he used, as an academic, to describe Franklin D.Roosevelt’s attack on the Great Depression.Mr Bernanke made it clear that he included the Fed in that commitment: “We will continue to use all of the powers at our disposal to mitigate credit market disruptions and to foster a strong, vibrant economy.” The Fed has already expanded its balance sheet by around $600 billion since August, an amount not much smaller than the entire TARP, as it replaces evaporating private credit with central bank credit.The odds are high it will also cut its short-term interest rate, now 2%, to 1.5% either at or before its policy meeting at the end of October.在TARP有效果前，美聯儲控制危機的壓力依然非常大。作為TARP出臺的主要推動者，美聯儲主席伯南克祝賀國會，因為這顯示了”政府為此所付出的正是支持和加強我們的經濟。”伯南克的這番言語頗似他以前作為學者時，形容富蘭克林D.羅斯福總統抵御大蕭條舉措的論調。伯南克明確的是，他將美聯儲也置身這個”付出”之中：”我們會繼續自行使用我們所有的權力來減緩信貸市場的瓦解，并培育出一個強壯的，充滿活力的經濟體。”自八月以來，美聯儲已將其資產負債表擴大了6000億美元（這是一個比整個TARP計劃小不了多少的數目），這將會用中央銀行信貸來代替消失的私人信貸。美聯儲在十月底的政策會上或之前，下調短期利率（從現在的2％調至1.5％）的可能性很高。

（十一）Financial crisis 金融危機

Into the land of the unknown 前途未卜

Sep 30th 2008 | LONDON, NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC From Economist.com

Global market turmoil continues after the rejection of the mortgage-rescue plan in America 美國救市計劃遭拒后全球市場繼續混亂

Reuters HOW many votes in Congress will the latest financial upheaval change? That is the calculus underway in Washington, DC, after the House of Representatives defeated the proposed $700 billion mortgage-rescue plan by 228 to 205 on Monday September 29th.Democrats backed it by 140 votes to 95, while Republicans opposed it by 133 to 65.最近的金融巨變將改變多少國會的選票?這是繼9月29日周一眾議院以228票反對：205票支持挫敗7000億美元救市計劃之后，華盛頓正在進行的計算。對此項救市計劃，民主黨140票支持：95票反對，而共和黨則是133票反對：65票支持。

Bankers had been under no illusions that the tweaked Paulson plan would cure all the financial system’s ills.But most had seen it as a step in the right direction, and had expected it to pass.Its rejection sent stockmarkets into freefall.The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down by 7%, and suffered its biggest-ever points loss.Perhaps fittingly in an economy that is in danger of sliding into depression, the only stock among the 500 in the S&P index that finished higher was Campbell’s Soup.The S&P closed 29% below its peak.Reflecting fears that consumer demand will wilt, shares of Apple Computer, creator of the iPhone, fell by 18%.The rout continued in Asia and Europe on Tuesday morning.銀行家們對妥協后的鮑爾森的救市計劃會治愈金融系統的疾患不抱幻想。但是他們中的大多數認為該救市計劃是往正確的方向前進，并希望它能夠得以通過。救市計劃遭拒引起股市重挫。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌7%，創歷史最大點數跌幅。或許，對一個有著滑向蕭條之危險的經濟體來說，標準普爾500指數股票里收盤唯一上漲的一只股票是 美國湯品生產商金寶湯（Campbell’s Soup）就是再平常不過的事情了。標準普爾500指數比其歷史峰值跌29%收盤。iPhone開發者蘋果公司的股票下跌18%,反映出市場對消費者需求 將會萎縮的恐慌。美國股市收盤后,亞洲股市還在下挫，歐洲股市的下挫則延續到周二早晨。

Worse, credit markets, already dysfunctional, were brought close to breaking point.Banks grew even less willing to lend to each other on Monday, and money-market funds fled anything with a whiff of risk.Some corporations are struggling to roll-over commercial paper, short-term debt issued to finance working capital, payroll payments and the like.In an effort to keep money markets from drying up, the Federal Reserve has doubled the size of a vital lending facility for banks, to $300 billion, and expanded agreements with other central banks that funnel dollars to lenders abroad.更糟的是，已經運轉不良的信貸市場瀕臨崩潰。周一，銀行更為不愿互相拆借，一有風 吹草動，貨幣基金就出逃任何投資項目。一些公司苦苦掙扎于結轉商業票據，發行短期債券來籌措流動資金，支付工資和其他費用。在維持貨幣市場流動性的努力 中，美聯儲把一項對銀行的關鍵貸款供應規模翻番，達到3000億美元，并且延伸了與其他央行關于它們為在海外經營的美國的銀行注資的協議。

These unprecedented injections are aimed at easing concerns that weak participants in the interbank market will fail to honour their debts.But many banks are now assumed to be not only illiquid but insolvent.Last week Washington Mutual, a thrift saddled with rotten mortgages, became the largest-ever American lender to fail.And on Monday Citigroup agreed to buy most of the assets of Wachovia, an even bigger American bank, in a deal brokered by regulators.The pain has suddenly grown much more intense in Europe, too.這些空前的注資舉措目的在于緩解憂慮，這種憂慮是：孱弱的參與者在同業拆借市場上 無能力償還其所欠債務。但是現在許多銀行被認為不僅僅是流動性差，而且是無償付能力。上周，不堪承受大量不良抵押的一家儲蓄銀行——華盛頓互惠銀行（Washington Mutual）破產，成為美國有史以來最大的倒閉銀行。周一花旗集團同意購買大部分美聯（Wachovia）資產，美聯是一家比華盛頓互惠銀行規模更大的 銀行，此項交易由監管方撮合。金融危機的痛楚在歐洲也急劇增強。

The no vote was a big blow to George Bush, Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman.They gave dire warnings of the consequences of an unchecked crisis, in hopes of persuading Congress to approve an unusually aggressive and early fiscal intervention.(It took many more years for a systemic response to widespread failures of American savings and loan banks in the 1980s).But because the intervention is relatively early, voters have yet to see much impact from the crisis on their lives.“On Monday morning…the sun came up and a lot of people went to work, and [they] couldn’t understand what this panic was in Washington,” Paul Kanjorski, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, told Mr Paulson last week.It was far easier for voters to relate to $700 billion of their taxes being spent on a mess in Wall Street.對喬治?布什，財長漢克?保爾森，聯儲出席本?伯南克而言，否決票是一大打擊。他 們曾對不遏制危機的后果給出警告，寄希望于說服國會通過此項非比一般地積極地也是早期地財政干預。（上世紀80年代，對美國儲蓄和貸款銀行普遍破產的一個 系統化處理耗費了許多年）。但是因為此次干預相對要早，選民們沒有意識到這場危機對他們的生活的重大影響。賓夕法尼亞州民主黨人保羅·坎喬斯基（Paul Kanjorski）上周對保爾森說道：“周一清晨“““太陽升起，人們趕去上班，他們無法理解華盛頓在恐慌什么。”對選民們來說，認同這7000億美元——他們納的稅被浪費在華爾街的廢物上倒是更為輕而易舉的事情。

Party leaders largely agreed with the diagnosis, as did the presidential candidates of both parties.But polls showed that voters were split;constituent phone calls and e-mails ran heavily against the bill.Administration officials and party leaders are back at work trying to find a way to get at least 12 members to switch their vote;the betting both on Wall Street and in Washington, DC, is they will succeed.(Passage in the Senate is considered less problematic.)But it should not be taken for granted.Without amendments, anyone who changes his vote will face fierce criticism when he seeks re-election.Any amendments to appease Republicans could cost Democratic support, and vice-versa.政黨領袖們很大程度上同意對此次金融危機的診斷，連兩黨的總統候選人也贊同。但是民調顯示了選民立場的分裂：反對救市方案的游說電話和郵件紛沓至來。執政官員和政黨領袖重新回到此項工作上來，試圖使至少12個反對成員改弦易轍；華盛頓和華爾街都預計他們能夠辦到。（在參議院通過問題不大）但這不應當被看作是他們就欣然接受。倘若對該方案未加修訂，任何人改變自己原先立場都會在其再次面臨選舉時（尋求連任時）受到嚴苛的批評。另一方面，任何迎合共和黨的修訂都會損耗民主黨的支持，反之亦然。“You can’t let one day’s trading dictate public policymaking,” argues Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican and member of the Republican Study Committee, a block of conservative members who led opposition to the bill.“The market’s going to be a factor, but we’re looking at the larger picture.” Recalcitrant Republicans would rather see a programme to sell insurance to banks against mortgage defaults, rather than buying assets from them.The Treasury strongly opposes this approach.But there may be other grounds for compromise, such as relaxing mark-to-market accounting or extending the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s guarantee of a bank’s liabilities to more than just the first $100,000 of each customer’s deposits.Other proposals include giving banks more time to deduct mortgage-related operating losses from future taxable profits, letting companies repatriate foreign profits tax-free and improving the tax treatment of losses sustained by banks on their holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock.“你不能讓單日交易量來指示公共政策制定,” 科特?蓋瑞特（Scott Garrett）主張，他是新澤西州共和黨人，也是共和黨研究委員會的成員，這個委員會由一批領導反對此項救市方案的保守人士組成。“市場將是一個主要問 題，但是我們著眼于全局。”執拗的共和黨人寧愿看到一個對銀行出售保險以抵御抵押違約損失的計劃，也不愿意從銀行手里收購資產。財政部強烈反對這種方法。但是或許有其他妥協的余地，比如放松按市價調整的會計或者提高美國聯邦存款保險公司對銀行債務的擔保，突破原先的每個客戶存款擔保10萬美元的上限。其他建議包括給銀行更長的時間從未來的應稅收入中扣除目前抵押貸款業務的相關損失；讓公司得以免稅把在國外所得利潤存回美國；并且改善在持有房地美和房利美的股票方面，銀行所蒙受的損失的稅收待遇。

For their part, more Democrats might back the proposal if the administration also agreed to more fiscal stimulus, in particular public-works spending, or taking any profits on the TARP to low-income housing.A deal may be possible, but time is short: legislators are itching to return to their districts to campaign, and investors’ appetite for risk is ebbing fast.The House is not expected to reconvene before Thursday, to accommodate the Jewish new year.從民主黨這邊來看，如果執政當局還同意更多的財政刺激，特別是公共項目開銷或是從 問題資產救援計劃（TARP）中提取任何利潤給低收入住房的話，或許會有更多民主黨成員支持這項救市提議。協議達成或許可能，但時間緊迫：立法者（議員 們）急于返回其選區參加競選，同時投資者的風險胃口迅速萎縮。周二之前眾議院不可能重新召集議事，因為這期間包括了猶太新年日。（譯者注：很多議員要趕回 去過節）

The House vote also represented a stinging rejection of John McCain, the Republican nominee.Mr McCain suspended his campaign last week for two days, citing the financial crisis, and flew to Washington, DC, to help craft a solution to it.His main task was to persuade reluctant House Republicans to back their own president.In the event they voted against the deal made by their own leadership by two to one.The humiliation meted out to Mr McCain is intense.眾議院的選票也代表了一種對共和黨候選人約翰?麥凱恩的無情拒絕。麥凱恩先生上周 稱是為金融危機而暫停了兩天的競選，并且親自飛往華盛頓，來幫助達成一個針對救市計劃的解決方案。他的主要任務是說服執拗的共和黨人來支持他們共和黨自己 的總統。結果，他們以2比1投票反對他們自己的領導階層制定的計劃。麥凱恩先生蒙受的羞辱是相當強烈的。

Amid the efforts to put the deal back together, some small hope remains that not all is lost.What is unlikely to help is the atmosphere of bitterness and recrimination that is pervading Capitol Hill.With some justification, the Democrats are aggrieved to find that they supported Mr Bush’s bill while his own party did not.But the Republicans blame the Democratic speaker, Nancy Pelosi, for making a stupidly partisan speech shortly before the vote in which she poured scorn on the Republicans she is trying to court.A lot of bridges will have to be built in a short span of time.使這項救市方案達成還存一線希望。譏諷的氛圍和遍布國會的互相指責是于是無補的。情有可原，民主黨會憤憤不平，因為他們發現自己支持布什的救市方案而布什自己的共和黨卻反對。但是共和黨人譴責身為民主黨的眾議院議長南希-佩羅西，指責她在投票開始前幾分鐘發表了一個愚蠢的從黨派立場出發的講話，在講話中她譏諷她要試圖拉攏說服的共和黨人。短時間內，各方間必須要建立大量溝通。

（十二）I want your money 我要用的就是你的錢 Sep 25th 2008 From The Economist print edition

No government bail-out of the banking system was ever going to be pretty.This one deserves support 政府對銀行系統的救助永遠不可能完美，但當下的這個理應得到支持。

SAVING the world is a thankless task.The only thing beyond dispute in the $700 billion plan of Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, to stem the financial crisis is that everyone can find something in it to dislike.The left accuses it of ripping off taxpayers to save Wall Street, the right damns it as socialism;economists disparage its technicalities, political scientists its sweeping powers.The administration gave ground to Congress, George Bush delivered a televised appeal and Barack Obama and John McCain suspended the presidential campaign.Even so, as The Economist went to press, the differences remained.There was a chance that Congress would say no.拯救世界是一個費力不討好的任務。財長鮑爾森和聯儲主席伯南克為了阻止金融危機而主張了7000億美元救助計劃，其中只有一點是毋庸置疑的：每個人都能從該計劃中挑出些毛病來（不可能讓每個人都滿意—）。左翼勢力控訴該計劃無異于搶劫納稅人的錢財去救助華爾街，右翼勢力譴責該計劃為社會主義運動；經濟學家鄙視計劃的學術性，政治科學家崇拜它橫掃一切的強大威力。執政當局向國會進行了妥協：布什發出了電視呼吁，奧巴馬和麥凱恩也暫停了競選大戰。即使如此，經濟學人雜志在付印時分歧仍在（還是保留了異見）。國會曾經是有機會拒絕該計劃的。

Spending a sum of money that could buy you a war in Iraq should not come easily;and the notion of any bail-out is deeply troubling to any self-respecting capitalist.Against that stand two overriding arguments.First this is a plan that could work(see article).And, second, the potential costs of producing nothing, or too little too slowly, include a financial collapse and a deep recession spilling across the world: those far outweigh any plausible estimate of the bail-out’s cost.花掉相當于伊戰軍費規模的一大筆銀子不應該如此輕松，況且救助的理念令任何一個有自尊心的資本家都感到非常不安。但針對上述論調有兩大主要反對觀點：第 一，這是一個可能行之有效的方案；第二，那些毫無效果或者收效甚微的潛在支出已經大大超過了救援計劃合理的成本預測，上述支出包括蔓延全球的金融崩潰和經 濟萎縮所招致的損失。

Mr Market goes to Congress 讓國會來判決市場

America’s financial system has two ailments: it owns a huge amount of toxic securities linked to falling house prices.And it is burdened by losses that leave it short of capital(although the world has capital, not enough has been available to the banks).For over a year, since August 2007, central bankers, principally Mr Bernanke, have been trying to make this toxic debt liquid.But by September 17th, following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the nationalisation of American International Group earlier that week, the problem started to become one of the system’s solvency too.The market lost faith in a strategy that saved finance one institution at a time.The economy is not healing itself.If credit markets stay blocked, consumers and firms will enter a vicious spiral.美國金融體系微恙有二：過量持有與狂跌房價相關的有毒債券；損失的負擔致使體系內呈現出資本短缺（盡管全球擁有很多資本，但是銀行可用部分確嚴重不足）。自2007年8月以來的一年時間里，以伯南克為主要代表的央行一直致力于有毒債務的清償。但截止到9月17日，緊隨雷曼兄弟的破產和美國國際集團的國有 化，該難題發展成了金融體系清償能力的麻煩之一。市場對于采取逐個機構救助的方法來挽救金融體系的策略已經失去了信心，美國經濟不可能實現自救。如果信貸 市場依然一片僵局，消費者和公司必將卷入更為兇殘的漩渦。

Mr Paulson’s plan relies on buying vast amounts of toxic securities.The theory is that in any auction a huge buyer like the federal government would end up paying more than today’s prices, temporarily depressed by the scarcity of buyers, and still buy the loans cheaply enough to reflect the high chance of a default.That would help recapitalise some banks—which could also set less capital aside against a cleaner balance sheet.And by creating credible, transparent prices, it would at last encourage investors to come in and repair the financial system: this week Warren Buffett and Japan’s Mitsubishi-UFJ agreed to buy stakes in Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.Some banks would still not have enough capital, but under Mr Paulson’s original plan, the state could put equity in them, or, if they become insolvent, take them over and run them down.鮑爾森先生的計劃依賴于大量購買有毒債券，其理論依據在于：在任何競價中，買家數量匱乏會造成價格的暫時性壓低，雖然像聯邦政府這樣的大買家所付出的成交 價格很可能高于現值，但仍然會以易于形成違約的便宜價格購買貸款。此舉不僅可以調整一些銀行的資本，還可以減少為了調整資產負債比例而擱置的資本。建立可 靠透明的價格將會最終鼓勵投資者們重新進入市場并且修復金融體系：本周巴菲特和日本三菱UFJ銀行同意購買高盛和摩根斯坦利的股份。一些銀行還處于資本不足的狀態，但是根據鮑爾森計劃的原意，國家可以向銀行注資，如果他們出現了清償問題，政府可以接管銀行并阻止其繼續惡化。

The economics behind this is sound.Government support to the banking system can break the cycle of panic and pessimism that threatens to suck the economy into deep recession.Intervention may help taxpayers, because they are also employees and consumers.Although $700 billion is a lot—about 6% of GDP—some of it will be earned back and it is small compared with the 16% of GDP that banking crises typically swallow and trivial compared with the Depression, when unemployment surged above 20%(compared with 6% now).Messrs Bernanke and Paulson also have done well by acting quickly: it took seven years for Japan’s regulators to set up a mechanism to take over large broke banks in the 1990s.支撐該計劃的經濟形勢健康度還算好，政府對于銀行系統的支持可以打破人們對經濟深陷衰退所產生的恐慌和悲觀的惡性循環。政府干預也許會幫到納稅人，因為他 們本身也是雇員和消費者。盡管7000億美元是一個不小的數目，幾乎相當于GDP的6%，但是其中的部分時可以被拿回的，并且與銀行危機所吞噬掉的GDP 的16%比較而言就小了很多；如果與上世紀的大蕭條相比就更是微不足道了，那時候的失業率飚升到20%，而現在只有6%。鮑爾森和伯南克也做到了該出手時 就出手：日本的立法者在90年代時用了7年時間才建立了接管破產銀行的機制。

Could the plan be better structured? Some economists want the state to focus on putting equity into the banks—arguing that it is the best way to address their lack of solvency.In theory you would need to spend less, because a dollar of new equity would support $10 in assets.Yet the banks might not take part until they were on the ropes and, if house prices later fell dramatically more, the value of the banks’ shares would collapse.The threat of the government taking stakes would scare off some private investors.And in the charged atmosphere after this bail-out meddling politicians, as part-owners, would have a tempting lever over the banks.這個計劃得架構是否可以更優化呢？一些經濟學家希望政府可以向銀行注入更多的資本，因為他們認為這是清償能力缺乏的最佳解決之道。理論上而言應該減少消 費，因為注資1美元可以支撐10美元的資產。然而銀行存在著不撞南墻不回頭的心理，那么如果房價隨后會更夸張地下跌，銀行股票將會徹底崩潰。政府介入行為 所引發的恐慌也許會嚇跑部分私人投資者。政客們的干預計劃造成了非常緊張的氣氛，所以股東們有躲避銀行的傾向。

Mr Paulson’s plan also has its shortcomings.He will find it hard to stop sellers from rigging auctions, if only because no two lots of dodgy securities are exactly the same.Taxpayers may thus pay over the odds and banks may be rewarded for their stupidity.Yet these costs seem small against the benefit of putting a floor under the markets.And fine calculations about moral hazard are less pressing when investors are fleeing risk.鮑爾森先生的計劃也有弱點：該計劃很難阻止賣方的提價行為，除非有兩個完全一樣的dodgy securities(這個我沒有查到)。納稅人會因為不對等的條件而要支付更多成本，而銀行會從他們的愚蠢舉動中獲利。投資者在規避風險的時候，道德風 險的精準計算就不那么重要了。

If the economics of Mr Paulson’s plan are broadly correct, the politics are fiendish.You are lavishing money on the people who got you into this mess.Sensible intervention cannot even buy long-term relief: the plan cannot stop house prices falling and the bloated financial sector shrinking.Although the economic risk is that the plan fails, the political risk is that the plan succeeds.Voters will scarcely notice a depression that never happened.But even as they lose their houses and their jobs, they will see Wall Street once again making millions.如果鮑爾森先生計劃的經濟效果還勉強的話，那么其政治效果就應該算是極差了；因為錢已經揮霍到把你帶入混亂的人的身上了。如此理性的干預甚至都不能換來長 期的緩解：該計劃不能阻止房價的下跌和過度膨脹金融業的縮水，經濟風險在于計劃的失敗，而政治風險在于計劃的成功。選民們不會注意到一個永遠不可能發生的 經濟衰退，盡管目前失去了房屋和工作，但他們還將看到華爾街的東山再起。

Buckle a little, but do it briefly 政策緊縮一些，而且要快

In retrospect, Mr Paulson made his job harder by misreading the politics.His original plan contained no help for homeowners.And he assumed sweeping powers to spend the cash quickly.He was right to want flexibility to buy a range of assets.But flexibility does not exclude accountability.As complaints mounted, Mr Paulson and Mr Bernanke buckled—agreeing, for instance, to more oversight.Now that Messrs McCain and Obama have returned to Congress to forge a deal, more buckling may be necessary.Ideally, concessions should not outlast the crisis: temporary help for people able to stay in their houses, a brief ban on dividends in financial firms, even another fiscal package.They should not be permanent or so onerous that the programme fails for want of participants—which is why proposed limits on pay are a mistake(see article).回顧過往，鮑爾森先生對政治的錯誤解讀給自己的工作平添了不少難度。他的計劃原本不包括對房屋所有者的救助，并且假想出可以迅速作出支出的強大權利。他對 于購買資產靈活性的需求是正確的，但是靈活性也不能犧牲應有的義務。鑒于抱怨的日益增多，鮑爾森和伯南克決定收緊政策：比如同意加強監管。現在麥凱恩和奧 巴馬也同國會達成了進一步收緊政策的共識。在理想主義狀態下，讓步不會比危機延續更長的時間：暫時幫助人們保住自己的房產，暫時中斷金融公司的分紅以及其 他一攬子財政措施。但是這不應該是長期行為，而且也不應該太過繁瑣，否則就會因為缺乏參與者而導致計劃的失敗；這就是限定支付額度的錯誤根源所在。

Mr Paulson’s plan is not perfect.But it is good enough and it is the plan on offer.The prospect of its failure sent credit markets once again veering towards the abyss.Congress should pass it—and soon.鮑爾森先生的計劃并不完美，但已經足夠用、并且馬上可以用。失敗的前景會再一次讓信貸市場轉向深淵，所以國會應該盡快通過該方案

（十三）Depression index 蕭條指數

The D-word “蕭條”的出現頻率

Oct 2nd 2008 From Economist.com

Signs of a pending depression? The Economist’s D-word index 《經濟學人》提出的蕭條指數預示著經濟蕭條即將來臨？

MANY comparisons may be made between the devastation being wrought on America’s financial system today and the Wall Street crash of 1929.One similarity that the world is desperate to avoid is a repeat of the depression of the 1930s.Hopes are pinned on the American bail-out plan that the House of Representatives is set to reconsider on Friday October 3rd.If the fear of depression is anything to go by, the future looks bleak.A survey of newspaper articles over the past two decades shows a sharp spike in mentions of the dreaded D-word, as commentators have started to think the worst.The prognostications may possibly turn out to be true, or perhaps the only thing we have to fear are the fears of journalists themselves.人們或許將如今美國金融系統遭遇的重創同1929年的華爾街大崩盤做了許多比較。它們有一個相似之處，那就是1930年代經濟危機的重復，而這也正是世界所極力避免的。希望都寄托在美國的 救市計劃上，眾議院將于10月3日周五重新審核該計劃。如果用對經濟蕭條的恐懼作為判斷標準的話，前景著實堪憂。對過去20年來新聞報道文章的分析表明，當評論員們開始對經濟狀況做最壞打算時，可怕的“蕭條”字眼出現頻率變高。而目前的蕭條指數已經是過去20年來的最高值了。這個預兆可能真的會應驗，但或 許記者們自身的恐懼情緒才是唯一應該讓我們感到害怕的東西。

（十五）Some more equal than others 收入平等性的差異

Oct 1st 2008 From Economist.com

Income inequality around the world 世界的收入不平等問題

NOT everyone agrees that income inequality is a problem to be solved.America and Britain are reckoned to have among the greatest inequality, among rich countries, as measured by the Gini coefficient.Such inequality may be associated with certain problems, for example a study produced last year by Unicef, the UN children’s agency, suggested that the two countries have particularly low levels of child wellbeing.For many ordinary Americans and Britons, however, social mobility and getting opportunities to prosper may be more important.Nordic countries, which are the most equal, regularly do well in happiness surveys.The highest levels of inequality are in poor countries, especially in South America and Africa.并非所有人都認為收入不平等是一個需要解決的問題。按基尼系數計算，美英兩國都位于富裕國家里收入差距最大的幾個國家之列。收入不平等或許總伴有某些特定問題，比如聯合國兒童基金會去年發布的一份研究報告就指出，美英兩國的兒童福利水平很低。不過，對許多普通美國人和英國人來說，社會流動性和獲得飛黃騰達的機會或許更為重要。在社會幸福調查中，北歐國家一般表現較好，那里是世界上收入最平等的地區。收入最不平等的往往都是貧窮國家，特別是在南美和非洲地區。（十六）

Capital bonanzas 財源滾滾

Sep 25th 2008 From The Economist print edition Does Wall Street’s meltdown show financial globalisation itself is part of the problem? 這次華爾街的災難意味著金融全球化本身就是問題的一部分嗎？

“THANK God,” said one Latin American finance minister earlier this year.“At least this time it isn’t our fault.”

“謝天謝地，”一位拉丁美洲的財政部長在今年早些時候說，”至少這次不是我們的錯。”

The meltdown of America’s financial system may look very different from the emerging-market crises that overwhelmed Thailand in 1997 or Russia in 1998.This time there has been no currency collapse, no government default.Then, there were no collateralised-debt obligations or credit-default swaps.美國金融體系的災難跟在1997，98年橫掃泰國和俄羅斯的新興市場危機有所不同。這次沒有貨幣崩潰，沒有政府失職。而上次卻沒有擔保抵押債務，或者信用違約互換。

Yet the minister was justified in seeing parallels between America’s crisis and the emerging-market episodes.In all of them vast current-account deficits were financed by huge capital inflows.The afflicted countries saw housing speculation, asset bubbles and cheap loans followed by a credit crunch and the seizing up of the financial system.And Wall Street’s meltdown raises the same questions as the crises of a decade ago: what will the direct effects on emerging markets be? If the world’s richest economies are vulnerable to global financial turmoil, should developing countries not seek to insulate themselves from it?

然而上面那位財政部長將美國的金融危機和新興市場的金融危機看作一致也是恰如其分的。所有這些國家都以大量的資本流入為經常賬戶赤字融資。于是這些國家便首先出現房地產投機，資產泡沫和低廉的貸款，隨之而來的是信貸緊縮和金融體系的停滯。這讓上述國家深受折磨、痛苦不堪。而華爾街的災難提出了與十年前金融危機相同的問題：這場災難將會給新興市場帶來什么直接影響？如果世界最富裕的經濟體還在全球金融動蕩面前還脆弱不堪，為何新興市場不尋求與之隔絕呢？

Two recent papers* cast light on these questions.They conclude that, although financial globalisation has big costs, these can be minimised and potential gains increased by better policy.Financial globalisation itself, they imply, ought to be seen not so much as a bad thing, but as too much of a good one.最新的兩篇論文（注1）闡明了這些問題。他們的結論是，雖然金融全球化有巨大的成本，但是這些成本可以最小化而潛在的收益可以依靠政策的改善而增加。他們認為，金融全球化本身不應該看作一件壞事，而是一件好事。Beware markets bearing gifts 當心市場帶來的木馬

Most emerging markets see their ability to attract foreign money as proof of good management.From this point of view, it should be a blessing that private capital flows to developing countries rose, according to the World Bank, to $1 trillion in 2007, the highest ever.Yet if the study by Carmen and Vincent Reinhart is anything to go by, this should be little cause for celebration.絕大多數新興市場將他們吸引外資的能力看作其良好管理的證明。基于這樣的觀點，根據世界銀行數據，2007年流入發展中國家的資金達到有史以來最高的1萬億美元，這應該看作一件非常幸運的事了。然而如果依據Carmen和Vincent Reinhart的研究結論的話，這沒什么值得慶賀的。

Taking the experience of 181 countries since 1980, the authors reckon that middle-and low-income countries had a roughly 20% chance of suffering a banking crisis and a 30% chance of a currency crisis, external-debt default or inflation spike(to more than 20% a year)if they experienced what the authors call a “capital-flow bonanza” in the three years beforehand.(They define such a bonanza as an unusual shift of the current account into the red, using that as a proxy for capital inflows since the capital and current accounts mirror each other.)These seem unenviable odds.根據自1980年以來181個國家的經驗，作者認為，如果在之前三年有作者稱之為”財源滾滾涌入”（它們將財源滾滾定義為，經常賬戶異常變為赤字，并且以此作為資金流入的代理，因為資本和經常賬戶互相反應彼此）的話，中低收入國家有大約20％的可能陷入銀行危機，30％的可能陷入貨幣危機，外債違約和通貨暴漲（年度通脹率超過20％）。這顯然是不值得羨慕的恩惠。

The authors point out that countries might have suffered disasters anyway, without being showered with money.That turns out to be true-but their chances were quite a bit lower: between 14% and 24% for countries that did not attract so many dollars.In other words, a foreign inflow, as well as financing good things such as public infrastructure and corporate investment, is also associated with debt defaults, inflation and currency crises.作者指出，上述那樣的國家在沒有大量資金資助下，肯定會陷入不管何種方式的災難之中。這被證明是正確的，但是發生的概率比較低–大約只有沒有獲得巨額外資的國家14％到24％發生災難的概率。換句話說，外資流入一方面會資助好的項目，例如公共基礎設施和公司投資，但另一方面也會與債務違約，通貨膨脹和貨幣危機發生關系。

The authors focus on the level of capital flows, rather than their composition.Presumably, countries that attract more foreign direct investment suffer less than those that have a greater amount of footloose portfolio investment or short-term bank lending.But overall, most countries that suck in foreign money show the classic signs of an economic bubble.Using a subset of 66 countries for which there are more detailed figures, the authors show that share prices rose by more than 10% in real terms in the two years before what they call a bonanza, then fell relentlessly for four years, ending below where they started.House prices went up by more than that-15% in real terms over four years during a bonanza-before falling back.作者更關注資金流入的數量而不是它們的構成。據估計，有大量外資直接投資的國家會比有大量自由組合投資或者短期銀行貸款的國家所承受的風險要少。但是總體來說，絕大多數吸入大量外資的國家顯出經濟泡沫的典型特征。用66個有更多經濟數據的國家作為研究對象，作者發現，在其所謂的引入”財源滾滾”之前兩年，這些國家的股票按實值計算增長10％以上，但是在引入”財源滾滾”之后卻會連跌四年，最后降到起始點以下。房價漲得更多，在”財源滾滾”的四年內按實際價值計算增長了15％，而之后便會回落。

So why would countries seek out foreign money at all, if its impact is so malign? The answer is that it is not so much the amount of investment that is the trouble;it is its volatility, and especially its tendency to dry up.That makes today’s climate worrying.Mansoor Dailami, the World Bank’s manager of international finance, says private inflows to emerging markets may fall from $1 trillion to only $800 billion-850 billion this year.That may be particularly troublesome because of another difference between this crisis and the Asian one: in 1997-98, more debt was sovereign.Now, much of it is corporate, taken out by Indian, Chinese and other emerging-market companies.That implies a global credit tightening could have as big an impact on emerging markets as slowing import demand in the rich world.那么即使這么有害，為何這些國家還想積極獲取外資呢？因為并不是大量投資是麻煩，而是其波動性，特別是其即將耗盡的趨勢。這造成了今天憂慮的氣氛。世界銀行國際金融經理Mansoor Dailami說，私人資本涌入新興市場會從1萬億美元下降到今年的8千億到8千5百億美元。這是非常糟糕的。因為這場金融危機與上次亞洲金融危機另一個不同之處在于，在1997到98年，更多的債務是政府所有的。而現在，這些大部分是公司所有的，會被印度，中國和其它新興市場的公司獲得。這意味著，全球信貸緊縮對新興市場的影響與發達國家和地區進口需求放緩對新興市場的影響一樣大。

Critics of financial globalisation argue that these problems are so great that emerging markets ought to be insulating themselves through capital controls.Many have been doing so.Yet even setting aside doubts about how far this is desirable(it is hard to believe growth in India or Brazil would have reached today’s levels without foreign capital), the studies raise questions about whether capital controls are really the right response.金融全球化的批評者認為，這些問題太大，因此新興市場國家必須采取資本監管從而使其免遭其害。許多新興市場國家也就是這么做的。然而即使拋開對資本監管到何種程度合適的質疑（印度和巴西如果沒有外資投入的話，其增長率很難能夠達到今天的水平），這兩篇論文也提出了這個問題：資本監管是否是個正確的應對方法？

The second study points out that “sudden stops” of capital inflows tend to be an inverted U-shape: the poorest countries are the least vulnerable to global financial shocks;middle-income countries are the most;but, as you get richer and more integrated into global finance, your vulnerability tends to fall again-and that remains true despite the crisis in America.So it might still make sense for countries like India and Brazil to carry on liberalising.Moreover, as the Reinharts show, a big part of the problem is that capital flows are endemically boom-bust: money floods in and out.They argue that fiscal policy should be used to smooth out such cycles: governments should reduce deficits or run surpluses during bonanzas-the opposite of what they usually do.This implies something of a paradox.Capital flows are supposed to be a reward for good economic behaviour.But as Dani Rodrik, a Harvard professor, says, “these policy conclusions turn capital inflows into an imperative for even deeper reform.”

第二篇論文指出外資流入”驟停”會對不同經濟體產生”倒U”型的影響：最窮的國家最不可能遭受全球金融沖擊；中等收入國家最可能遭受沖擊；但是隨著你更富有更進一步融入全球金融體系，那么遭受沖擊的可能性又會再次下降–除了美國的金融危機外，這還是正確的。因此對于像印度和巴西這樣的國家來說繼續施行自由化政策還是很明智的。此外，如Reinharts所示，最大的問題在于資金流動的地方性興衰起伏：資金大量涌入、涌出。他們認為金融政策應該緩和這樣的起伏周期：政府應該在”財源滾滾”時減少赤字或者增加盈余–而這些政府的做法恰好與之相反。而這卻是個悖論。資金流入應該是對一個良好運行經濟體的褒獎、但是如同哈佛教授Dani Rodrik所說：”那些政策卻將資金流入作為深化改革的必須。”（十七）

Questions of equity 公平問題和股權問題

Sep 25th 2008 From The Economist print edition Salary caps are a rotten idea;but the crisis also carries lessons for regulators and workers 薪酬限制是個極糟糕的主意；但是這場危機也給監管者和工作者都上了一課

IT IS easy to understand why many in Congress and beyond have demanded salary caps on bank executives as a condition of approving the Bush administration’s bail-out of the financial system.After all, many of the people who will be leading the effort to get the banks back on their feet were the very same masters of the universe whose greed and myopia brought the industry to its knees in the first place.Nonetheless the lawmakers’ apparent decision to impose some form of still unspecified wage limit, a demand reluctantly accepted by Hank Paulson and the Bush administration this week, is a mistake.為何眾多國會議員和廣大群眾都要求將銀行高管的薪酬限制作為批準布什政府金融救援計劃的一個條件呢？這個很好理解。畢竟，盡管是這些銀行高管將要用他們的力量來幫這些銀行擺脫困境，恢復原樣。而正是由于這些曾是世界霸主的銀行高管的貪婪和短視，首先將整個行業拖入泥淖。盡管如此，立法者這個強制限制薪酬–本周被保爾森和布什政府勉強接受–也是個錯誤的決定。

Just now, it is a struggle to keep a straight face when you read the words “talent” and “Wall Street” in the same sentence.And yet, precisely because it is in a mess, the financial system will need decent managers if it is to return to the health that benefits the rest of the economy.The sort of sums that would satisfy Congress as a cap may be far above the incomes of average Americans, but there is no surer way of driving finance offshore or into hedge funds where it is beyond the gaze of regulators.Besides, if ever there was a time when pay in banking and broking is likely to be depressed by the market, it is now.The bubble did not only inflate asset prices, it also inflated pay.Now the bubble has burst and hundreds of thousands of finance professionals want work.剛才，當你在同一個句子里讀到”人才”和”華爾街”這些詞的時候，會努力控制自己不要笑出聲來。可是，恰恰由于其正處困境，金融系統要想恢復健康進而使其余經濟部分也從中獲益，必須要有優秀的經理人。國會滿意的薪酬上限應該比美國人平均收入要高的多，但是并不能保證那些金融資本不會轉移到離岸金融公司或者對沖基金，在那里不必擔心金融監管者的監視。此外，現在正是銀行和經紀業由于市場疲軟而薪酬低迷的時候。以前的泡沫不僅膨脹了資產的價格，同時也膨脹了薪酬。現在泡沫破裂了，成千上萬的金融專業人士在尋找工作。

American politicians have a lamentable record of intervening in setting executive pay.In the early years of the Clinton administration, Congress imposed a salary cap of $1m, beyond which firms faced a tax penalty.Pay rose, as one set of executives, beneath the cap, realised that they were “underpaid” and another set gained from an outpouring of creativity, as consultants invented myriad option schemes, perks and pension benefits to get around the limit.This only made it harder for shareholders to know who was getting what.美國政客在干預高管薪酬設定上曾經有段不愉快的歷史。在克林頓政府早期，國會將高管薪酬強制定在100萬美元，超過這個數字將會受到稅收懲罰。于是，對于高管來說有就一套低于那個最高限制薪酬標準。薪酬提高了，一部分高管，意識到薪酬限制讓他們受到”剝削”了，而另外一部分人通過創新方式，作為公司顧問發明出諸多的期權計劃，補助，養老津貼等等來繞過薪酬限制。這么做的唯一結果就是讓股東更難知道那些高管拿多少薪酬了。

If the foolishness of Congress setting corporate pay levels is an old lesson, the financial crisis is teaching some new ones to shareholders.First, forget the received wisdom that paying people in large amounts of shares in their own firm ensures they take sensible value-maximising decisions.In the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, the management did not just take reckless gambles with other people’s money.Dick Fuld and Jimmy Cayne took reckless gambles with their own-and still they failed to do the right things and ended up losing most of their fortunes.Outside shareholders should remember that loading up the people at the top with shares can be an aid to corporate governance, but not a substitute for it.如果國會愚蠢地設定公司的薪酬是個老教訓，那么這場金融危機正在給股東帶來一個新的教訓。首先，不要相信廣為認可的論斷–給那些經理人大量本公司的股份就能保證使他們做出利益最大化的決定。在雷曼和貝爾斯登倒臺中我們可以看到，那些管理層不僅僅是拿著別人錢的在魯莽賭徒。迪克福德和杰米凱恩還是拿著自己的錢來魯莽地下賭注，但最終他們都未能做出正確的抉擇從而失掉了其絕大部分的財產。處于管理層外的股東要牢記，給那些管理者以股票只能對其管理有幫助，但是并不能代替公司管理。Esop’s fables 員工持股的寓言

For employees, the tale of Lehman, especially after Enron, is a reminder of the danger of having too many savings tied up in the firm where you work.More of the truly talented will now demand their bonuses in cash, or perhaps ask for even more shares.That surely will have an effect on the way that firms recruit staff and on employee share-ownership schemes.Paying ordinary workers in shares is expensive-because equity is costly to issue and discounted by employees.And the idea that ordinary workers who own shares in their firm will stop senior managers taking bad decisions has taken another knock.在安然倒臺之后，對雇員來說雷曼事件應該特別引起注意，它提醒雇員不要將自己太多的儲蓄和公司綁到一起。許多有才干的雇員從今之后將會要求他們的獎金以現金形式發放，也許或者要求更多的股份。這肯定會對公司招募新員工和員工持股計劃產生影響。給普通員工股權會非常昂貴–因為股票發售代價很高，而在員工那里又打折不少。而普通員工持股會阻止高級經理做出錯誤決定的想法也遭重創。

The structure of bonus schemes is more important than their level-especially in finance.Foolish short-term risk-taking could be discouraged by matching the timing of bankers’ pay to the timing of the risks they are trading.Britain’s Financial Services Authority may ask banks to put up more capital if their pay structures are dangerously risky.That makes far more sense than capping pay.But in the end companies and shareholders are better at setting salaries than bureaucrats.獎金方案的結構遠比其數量更為重要–在金融界尤其如此。根據其對風險的交易時機制定支銀行家付薪酬的時機，不失為防止愚蠢的短期冒險行為的良策。英國金融服務當局可能會要求銀行持有更多的資金以防薪酬結構改變而帶來的風險。這比限制薪酬要有意義的多。但是最終公司和股東會比官僚設定的薪酬要好得多（十八）

And then there were none 投行之死

Sep 24th 2008 | NEW YORK From Economist.com What the death of the investment bank means for Wall Street 投資銀行模式消失對華爾街來說意味著什么

THE radical overhaul of Britain’s financial sector in 1986 was dubbed the Big Bang.The brutal, unplanned reshaping of Wall Street might be better described as the Big Implosion.As if too ashamed to go on after the humbling of the country’s mortgage agencies and its largest insurer, the “bulge-bracket” brokerage model has collapsed in on itself.Even more humiliating for the erstwhile masters of the universe, the new force in finance is now the government.1986年英國金融系統的大整頓被稱為”金融大爆炸”。而這次對華爾街進行的殘酷而又無計劃的重塑應該被稱為”金融大風暴”。在繼美國最大的兩家抵押貸款機構和最大的保險商蒙羞受乳之后，華爾街的”頂級投行”的經紀模式也似因連遭重創而無法運行下去，只得轟然垮臺。對昔日的世界巨頭來說更丟臉的是, 如今金融市場的主導力量變成了美國政府。

The last remaining investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, were forced to seek sanctuary by converting into bank holding companies after the trampling of Lehman Brothers turned into a full-scale run on the industry.Though neither was particularly sickly, markets could no longer stomach their potentially lethal combination of illiquid assets and skittish wholesale liabilities.碩果僅存的兩家投行–高盛和摩根斯坦利在雷曼垮臺后，尋求政府保護：允許其成為銀行控股公司從而能在市場上繼續保持原有規模運作。盡管二者都不是完全陷入困境，但是市場對于其潛在的致命缺陷–非流動資產和不可靠的大規模債務的模式已經不再信任。

Both will now start gathering large amounts of deposits, a more stable form of funding.Signing up strong partners should also help.Mitsubishi UFJ, a giant Japanese bank, will buy up to 20% of Morgan.Late on Tuesday September 23rd Goldman went one better, coaxing $5 billion from Warren Buffett, an investing legend.This endorsement helped Goldman to raise a further $5 billion in a share offering the next day.高盛和摩根斯坦利現在會去用吸收大量存款這種穩定的模式來籌資。當然，他們如能和強有力的伙伴合作，那么會對他們籌資有很大幫助。日本銀行巨頭三菱日聯銀行會購入摩根斯坦利20％的股份。高盛做的更好，在周二（9月23日）晚些時候，它從傳奇投資人物巴菲特那里搞到50億美元。巴菲特的這個支持有助于高盛第二天從股票發行中再籌得50億美元。

Mr Buffett, no idle flatterer, describes Goldman as “exceptional”.But some doubt that it can adapt and thrive.As a bank it faces more intrusive supervision from the Federal Reserve, tougher capital requirements and restrictions on investing.Universal banks, such as Citigroup and Bank of America, long dismissed as stodgy, argue that their vast balance sheets and wide range of businesses, from cards to capital markets, give them an edge in trying times.The head of one bank suggests that the golden times enjoyed by investment banks in 2003-06 were an “aberration”, fuelled by a global liquidity glut big enough to hide a multitude of risk-taking sins.巴菲特先生顯然不是無所事事的馬屁精，他將高盛描述為”異常出色”。但是有些人懷疑高盛是否能夠改革并再次興盛。作為一個銀行它將面臨美聯儲更多的監管，更嚴格的資本儲備率和投資限制。長期以來由于其古板頑固而失寵的綜合銀行，例如花旗和美國銀行，認為他們資產負債表上充足的資本和從銀行卡到資本市場廣泛的業務，在困難時期給他們帶來許多優勢。一家銀行的老板認為，投資銀行在2003到06年間所享受的黃金時光是”不正常的”–由過剩的流動性驅使而來，流動性大到足以掩蓋諸多的風險過錯。

Private-equity firms and hedge funds spy opportunity.The buyout barons got good news this week, when the Fed relaxed its rules on their ownership of banks.These investors are also going after the investment banks’ “talent”.Hedge funds will be particularly keen to get their hands on cutting-edge risk-takers who fret that new regulation will clip their wings.私募股權公司和對沖基金正在伺機以動。它們本周得到個好消息，美聯儲放松了這些收購巨頭對銀行控股的限制。這些投資者正在追逐投行的”人才”。對沖基金將會對那些擔心自己被新規定束縛手腳的精英冒險家們（譯者注：投行的人才）表現的格外熱情。

Power may shift in two other directions: abroad and, to a lesser extent, to boutique investment banks.Mitsubishi is not the only foreign bank making a move.After a brief wrangle in the bankruptcy courts, Britain’s Barclays has taken over Lehman’s American operations.權力正在兩極分化：一是朝向海外，國際化方向聚集，另一個則是朝向小型專業投行聚集。三菱并不是唯一一個行動的外資銀行。在破產法庭上簡單爭執之后，英國的巴克萊銀行收購了雷曼美國的運營部門。

But all is not lost for the former investment banks.For one thing, they may not have to cut leverage by as much as feared.Though their overall leverage ratios are high, their risk-adjusted capital ratios under the Basel 2 rules are stronger than those of most commercial banks.但是對于原來投行來說并不是所有都失去了。至少，他們不用減掉杠桿像原來擔心的那么多。盡管它們的全面杠桿比率很高，但在巴塞爾2協議下，他們的風險調節資本比率比絕大多數商業銀行都要好。

Moreover, there are some advantages to becoming a bank now.Dozens of regional lenders are expected to fail in the coming months.Goldman and Morgan should thus be able to amass deposits on the cheap, and without the headaches that would accompany a merger with a big commercial bank.As two of the sharpest distressed-debt investors, they will also be looking to pick up assets from the government’s giant loan-buying entity when it gets going.此外，現在變為銀行還有一些優勢。許多地區性商業銀行在近期會倒閉。因此，高盛和摩根斯坦利就可以吸收大量便宜的存款，而不必頭痛要與一家大型商業銀行合并的事情了。作為兩家債券嚴重受損的投資者，它們也同樣希望在政府巨大的貸款購買實體成立后，能夠回籠些資產。

Given the acute stress in money markets, however, the accent for the time being is more on survival than grabbing opportunities.Banks continue to treat each other with suspicion in interbank loan markets.由于貨幣市場有著巨大的壓力，現在市場的聲音不是能否抓住機會而是能否保住性命了。從銀行間拆借市場可以看出銀行之間依然存在著巨大的疑慮。

Financial firms fear further fallout from the recent, potentially catastrophic run on money-market funds that prompted the government to step in with guarantees.“Prime” money funds, which are important buyers of corporate debt, remain under pressure and are pulling away from anything deemed risky.This is a big problem for banks, since money funds hold up to $1.3 trillion of their short-term debt.As the funds retreat, the banks will be forced to turn to longer-term(and more expensive)funding markets.金融公司擔心最近在貨幣市場基金上潛在的災難會有更嚴重的輻射影響。這促使美國政府介入市場提供擔保。重要的公司債券購買者，”首要”貨幣基金仍處于壓力之下，而且不再涉及任何有風險的債券。這對銀行來說是個大問題，因為貨幣基金只有它們1.3萬億美元的短期債券。隨著這些基金的撤退，銀行將被迫使用期限更長（且成本更高）的籌資手段。

Once markets stabilise, Wall Street will start to wonder if it is better or worse off without its standalone investment banks.They may leave behind a vacuum.As broker-dealers, regulated more lightly by the Securities and Exchange Commission, they were free to put large dollops of capital to work, providing liquidity, making markets and assuming risk.As banks, they may find the Fed takes a more restrictive view.一旦市場企穩，華爾街就會考慮缺乏獨立投行模式對其有利還是有害。獨立投行之死留下了一片真空地帶。作為經紀交易商，略受證券交易委員會監管，它們可以自由地運作巨額資本，提供流動性，形成市場并評估風險。作為銀行，它們則會發現美聯儲有著更加限制性的看法。（十九）安全的代價

Sep 26th 2008 From Economist.com

How much have previous bail-outs cost? 以前的救市計劃花費多少？

CONGRESS is under pressure to approve the Treasury’s proposed $700 billion rescue package.Lawmakers, however, are conscious of the cost to the taxpayer: together with loans to AIG and Bear Stearns, public backing so far approaches 6% of GDP.This is well above the 3.7% of GDP of the savings-and-loan bail-out in the late 1980s and early 1990s.But some 6% of GDP is still much less than the average cost of resolving banking crises around the world in the past three decades, which a study by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia, of the IMF, puts at 16%.目前國會正面臨壓力，要求它通過財政部提出的7000億美元的救市計劃。不過，立法者們意識到了納稅人需要承擔的代價：算上提供給AIG和貝爾斯登的貸 款，目前此次金融危機中的公共支出已經接近GDP的6%。而1980年代末和1990年代初發生儲蓄信貸機構危機時，這一數字不過為3.7%。但是，根據 國際貨幣基金組織Luc Laeven 和 Fabian Valencia的一項研究，過去三十年來世界為解決銀行危機的公共支出占GDP的份額平均為16%。6%仍遠低于這一平均值。（二十）A quick fix

Nov 1st 2008 From The Economist print edition The IMF's new scheme to help emerging economies weather financial trumoil

Reuters

“EXCEPTIONAL times call for an exceptional response” said Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF's boss, of a new short-term lending facility for emerging economies facing temporary liquidity problems in capital markets.Under the “short-term liquidity facility”(SLF), approved on Wednesday October 29th, qualifying countries will be eligible for a loan at short notice of up to 500% of their IMF quota, the maximum amount a country is obliged to provide to the IMF.The three-month loans will come with a minimum of conditions relating to economic policy;they are also intended to be made available with a rapidity not usually associated with the organisation.All this is music to the ears of those, including many within the IMF, who have been arguing that the Fund needs to match its lending to changing global circumstances.The new facility goes some way towards adressing an obvious shortcoming in the IMF’s arsenal of lending instruments.Until now, the Fund had nothing it could deploy aimed at countries facing a temporary shortage of liquidity in spite of sound macroeconomic fundamentals.Yet this situation had become much more likely, even without a paralysing credit crisis, because of increasing global financial interdependence.A country lacking short-term liquidity would be loth to approach the IMF for a loan under the “stand-by arrangement”(SBA), the mainstay of the IMF’s crisis lending.The SBA carries a stigma, because requesting such a loan is assumed to reflect badly on the recipient’s economic management.But the new loan facility will only be available those countries that the IMF deem to be in sound macroeconomic health.If anything, qualification should serve to reassure outsiders that the country’s policies are essentially sound, and that the difficulties it faces are temporary and a result of factors beyond its control.By this method, the IMF has also precluded the need for the type of onerous conditions which usually accompany loans under the SBA.The second feature of the SBA that makes it less well suited to dealing with temporary liquidity crises is that funding is usually released in phased tranches.In a liquidity crisis brought on by a collapse in confidence a large loan, quickly administered, is the best method for restoring confidence in a short period of time—exactly how the new loans should work.Most will cheer the IMF for introducing flexible loanmaking without onerous conditionality but concerns remain.Some economists fear that the funds available for the IMF to dole out, which in September stood at $255 billion, may not be enough if several emerging markets come under stress at the same time.Deutsche Bank estimates that a single large emerging market may face a financing gap of up to $90 billion, depending on roll-over rates for credit lines, liquidation of foreign positions in bond and equity markets, and domestic capital flight.Under these circumstances, the IMF’s pockets, which seemed enviously deep just a short while ago, might not be deep enough.Simon Johnson, a former IMF chief economist, reckons that it may need upto $1 trillion.The IMF acknowledges the problem and says it is prepared to “work with others to generate additional resources to make sure that countries have the money they need to restore confidence and maintain stability”.Just as important, it remains to be seen how difficult it will be to qualify for a loan under the SLF.It is unclear how strictly the IMF will set the criteria for certifying that a country’s economic management is sound.As a result there may be a number of vulnerable countries that do not qualify for the scheme.As with any programme of this kind, the devil is in the details.The question, then is whether the IMF’s new facility is as good in practice as it seems to be in theory.“非常時刻需要非常的應對措施”——國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的老板Dominique Strauss-Kahn說道，該應對是指為暫時面對資本市場流動性問題的新興經濟體提供一個新的短期貸款工具。10月29日的周三批準的“短期流動性貸款工具”（SLF）使得有資格的國家可以在短期內能夠籌到高達他們IMF配額5倍的貸款，這也是一個國家被要求提供給IMF的最大數額。該項為期三個月的貸款將僅有最少的與經濟政策有關的附帶條款；它們的撥付也將快于該組織以往的慣例。

這些措施與對于包括IMF組織內部在內的很多希望該基金根據全球變化來配比其貸款的人想法不謀而合。新的工具某種程度上克服了IMF借款工具武器庫的一個明顯弱點。該基金直到現在才可以將目標集中在那些有著良好的宏觀經濟基本面但面對短暫的流動性缺乏的國家。但是由于全球金融不斷加強的相互依賴使得就算沒有癱瘓性的信用危機，這種情況發生的可能性也更大了。

一個缺乏短期流動性的國家可能不愿意找到IMF要求根據“備用信貸協議”（SBA）——IMF危機貸款的中流砥柱——貸款給它。備用信貸協議（SBA）帶有個一個恥辱的烙印，因為要求這樣一種貸款會被認為反映了貸款接受國經濟管理的不善。但新的貸款工具只會撥付給那些IMF認為處在良好經濟健康狀況中的國家。如果說還有什么區別的話，就是能夠貸到這樣的款能夠起到安撫外界的人的作用，表明該國家的政策本質上是良好的，而且該國家面對的困難是暫時的、是超出其控制的因素造成的。IMF也通過該方法排除了通常在SBA協議下附帶很多條款的必要。

SBA協議的另外一個使得其不那么適合處理暫時流動性危機的特點是資金是分階段撥付的。在信心崩潰導致的流動性危機中，快速審批通過的大額貸款才是短期內重振信心的最佳方法——新的貸款正是如此。

大部分人對IMF引入如此具有靈活性的貸款而不附帶很多條件表示高興，但對此的疑慮仍然存在。一些經濟學家擔心如果一些新興市場在同一時間里也面臨壓力時，IMF少量發放資金（九月份數額為2,550億美金）只是杯水車薪而已。德意志銀行估計某一個大的新興市場可能面對的是高達900億美金的融資鴻溝，這取決于貸款最高限額的滾動利率，債券和資本市場中外國頭寸的流動性和國內資本的流動。

在這些種情況下，IMF的腰包雖然之前看來還深得令人羨慕，但可能也不夠深了。IMF的前首席經濟學家Simon Johnson認為IMF可能需要高達10,000億美金才行。IMF表示知曉了這個問題并且說它已經準備”與其他組織一道來生成更多的資源保證國家有他們需要的資金來重振信心保持穩定”。

如其重要性一樣，有資格獲得短期流動性貸款工具（SLF）的困難程度也有目共睹。IMF如何設定標準證明一個國家的經濟管理是良好的仍然不清楚。所以可能存在許多得不到貸款但已岌岌可危的國家。正如任何其他此類項目一樣，魔鬼存在于細節之中。那么問題就是IMF的新工具在實際應用中是否如其理論看上去的那樣好。

第二篇：經典唯美英文句子帶中文翻譯

Nostalgia is a file that removes the rough edges from the good old days.懷舊之情能使美好的舊時光更美好。

promises are often like the butterfly, which disappear after beautiful hover。

承諾常常很像蝴蝶，美麗的飛盤旋然后不見。

Don't worry too much about the ambiguous future, just make effort for explicit being present.不為模糊不清的未來過分擔憂，只為清楚的現在奮發圖強。

The happiest people are not those who own all the best things, but the ones who can really appreciate the beauty of life.最幸福的人們并不一定什么都是最好，只是因為他們懂得欣賞生活的美好。

Distance, it is a test of love.Many will fail, but for those who can withstand it, it has the answer :true love!距離，是愛的一種考驗。很多失敗了，但對于那些經受住考驗的人們來說，得到的答案是：真愛。

Retaining a childish heart is a matter of pride.童心未泯，是一件值得驕傲的事情。

The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only a page.世界就像一本書，不旅行的人只讀過其中一頁。

While our dream is confronted with the reality.Just trample on the pain, or you’ll be beat down by it.當夢想和現實直面時，總是很痛苦的。而你要么被痛苦擊倒，要么把痛苦踩在腳下。

There are always some people, miss in life, but disappear in life.總有一些人，想念在生命里，卻消失在生活里。

Happiness is, two pairs of eyes, see a future.幸福是，兩雙眼睛，看一個未來。To love someone is very simple actually.Although he makes you cry and disappoints you, you will still can’t help holding his hand wherever he is.愛一個人，其實很簡單。他讓你流淚，讓你失望，盡管這樣你還是會走過去牽他的手，不由自主。

Coffee is lonely without cups just as I am lonely without you.沒有杯子，咖啡是寂寞的；沒有你，我是孤獨的。

You gotta learn to bend and not break even when your world caves in.你得學會彎而不折，就算你的世界將崩塌。

Remember all things are possible for those who believes.記住，只要相信了，什么都是可能的。

Honesty doesn’t mean loving only one person in the whole life.it carries the unique love from all your heart and soul when you are in love with someone.專一不是一輩子只喜歡一人，是喜歡一個人的時候一心一意、不離不棄。Preeness is not an attitude, it is one kind of satisfaction.單純不是什么態度，而是一種滿足。Please be kind, no matter how cold the world is.請你善良，無論這世界多冷漠。

Your dream is not what you find in your sleep, but what makes you not sleep.所謂夢想，不是你睡覺時夢到了什么，而是想到了什么令你激動的沒法睡覺。For the love of dream, so everything for the dream to pay is worth it.因為熱愛夢想，所以一切為了夢想的付出都是值得的。

Life is like a rolling coaster.Live it.Be happy.Enjoy life.生活就像過山車。體驗它，保持快樂，享受生活。Life has taught us that love does not consist in gazing at each other, but in looking outward together in the same direction.生活教會我們，愛并不在于長久地凝視，而在于眺望遠方同一方向的希望。

If we do only the stuff we are good at, we never learn anything now.如果我們只做我們拿手的，我們就永遠學不到新的東西。

We grow hether better nor worse as we grow old but more like ourselves.隨著年齡的增長，我們不會變得更好也 不會變得更壞，而是變得更像我們自己。Life is ten percent what you make it and ninety percent how you take it.生活有百分之十在于你如何塑造它，有百分之九十在于你如何對待它。Happy is that you are here for the breakfast in the morning and night after dinner.幸福就是，早安后的早餐，到晚餐后的晚安，你都在。

If you believe in yourself and with a tiny pinch of magic, all your dreams can come true.如果你相信自己，然后再加上一點點運氣，那你所有的夢想都能實現。Slow down, to listen to the sound of a bloom.放慢自己的腳步，去傾聽花開的聲音。

If you want to go fast, go alone.If you want to go far, go together.若要走的快，獨自前行；若要走的遠，結伴同行。Live like you’re dying and never stop trying.像明日將死一樣活著，永遠不要停止嘗試。

Good love is to let you see the whole world through someone while bad love is to make you give up the world.好的愛情是你通過一個人看到整個世界，壞的愛情是你為了一個人舍棄整個世界。

I love three things in this world.Sun, moon and you.Sun for morning, moon for night and you forever.予獨愛世間三物。晝之日，夜之月，汝之永恒。

Never expect, never assume, and never demand.Just let it be, because if it’s meant to be, it will happen the way you want it to.永不期待，永不假設，永不強求。順其自然，若是注定發生，必會如你所愿。Every new day is a chance to change something in your life.每一天都是為生命做一些改變的一個機會。

Now,slowly began to understand, good love can stand the plain is fleeting.如今，開始慢慢懂得，好的愛情是經得起平淡流年的。

Freedom isn’t about doing what we want, but not doing what we don’t want.真正的自由不是想做什么就做什么，而是不想做什么就可以不做什么。Remember that not getting what you want is something a wonderful stroke of luck.請記住未能獲得你想要的東西，有時或許是某種絕妙的幸運。Love what you do, do what you love.愛你所做，做你所愛。

If winter comes, can spring be far behind? 冬天來了，春天還會遠嗎？

Going to bed with a dream, waking up with a purpose.帶著夢想睡去，伴著目標醒來。

With this hand, I will lift you sorrows, your cup will never empty, for I will be your wine.With this candle, I will light your way in the darkness.with this ring, I ask you to be mine.執子之手，承汝之憂。愿為甜釀，盈汝之杯。但為明燭，為汝之光。永佩此誓，與汝偕老。

None of us knew the road ahead, so we just concentrated on the step before us.由于無法預知未來的路，我們只得集中精力走好腳下的每一步。

Failure does not imply you have wasted time and life.It shows you have reasons to start again.失敗并不意味著你浪費了時間和生命，而是表明你有理由重新開始。

Sometimes when you think the sky is about to fall down, you might be standing tited!有時候你以為天要塌下來了，其實是你自己站歪了。

It doesn’t matter how slow you are, as long as you’re determined to get there, you’ll get there.不管你多慢，都要要緊，只要你有決心，你最終會到達你想去的地方。Be the actor of your own life, not a spectator of others live.做自己生命的主角，而不是別人生命的看客。As rough and tough as the world is, don’t forget to find beauty in the simple things.盡管這個世界是如此艱難，但也不要忘記發現簡單的美。Forever is a long time, but I wouldn’t mind spending it by your side.永遠好遠，但若有你相伴，我愿和你共度此生。

Love like a pearl, is years honed the small universe, is the endless sea, broad and profound, silently waiting.愛似珍珠，是經年磨礪的小宇宙，是無盡的海，博大深沉，靜靜守候。The warm smile, if the quality.微笑向暖，安之若素。

The most valuable thing in life is not your own material , but to accompany the people around you.人生最寶貴的不是你擁有的物質，而是陪伴在你身邊的人。We are never so happy nor so unhappy as we imagine.我們永遠不會像自己所想象的那么幸福，也永遠不會像自己所想象的那么痛苦。An optimistic attitude is not a luxury;it’s a necessity.樂觀的態度不是奢侈品，而是生活必需品。

第三篇：好聽的英文歌帶中文翻譯

Army of Two When i see you 當我看到你 Looking back at me 回首看我時

Watching this eye still 依然注視這雙眼眸 Do your fingers 你的手指 And your eyes 你的眼睛

Have told thousands lights 應經告訴我千道光芒 But i cant tell this time 但我這次 What you really meant 不明白你的意思

We've been crossing the wires 我們已經越過電線 And still no sparks 仍然沒有火花閃過 Lost in tight 在困境中失去你 Falling apart 與你分手

We've been together forever tell me why why why 我們曾承諾永遠在一起 告訴我為何要離開

Tell me how could you turn around and say goodbye bye bye bye 告訴我 你怎么可以轉身說拜拜

And the only thing that's left to do is cry cry cry 只剩下哭泣是唯一的主題 Not left me the city,you bye bye bye 別丟下我在這城市里 I can sing Another broken song 我可以唱另一首傷心的歌曲 Crying to hold on To your picture 緊緊握著你的照片哭泣 Out of face(zuochamo)You hide behind your face 你躲在你的表情后面 It is more than what i can take Move around the people 我在人群中盤桓 We've been crossing the wire 我們已經越過電線 And still no spark 仍然沒有火花閃過 Lost in tight 在困境中失去你 Falling apart 與你分手

We've been together forever tell me why why why 我們曾承諾永遠在一起 告訴我為何要離開 Tell me how could you turn around and say goodbye bye bye bye 告訴我 你怎么可以轉身說拜拜

And the only thing that's left to do is cry cry cry 只剩下哭泣是唯一的主題 Not left me the city,you bye bye bye 別丟下我在這城市里 You left me hanging on the light Why u still know my type 為什么你仍然知道我喜歡的類型 You take a piss me You've been drving too slow 你走的太慢 So i gotta let you go 所以我讓你離開 Before you break me 在你傷我之前 Em ayaah..We've been together forever tell me why why why 我們曾承諾永遠在一起 告訴我為何要離開

Tell me how could you turn around and say goodbye bye bye bye 告訴我 你怎么可以轉身說拜拜

And the only thing that's left to do is cry cry cry 只剩下哭泣是唯一的主題 Not left me the city,you bye bye bye 別丟下我在這城市里

We've been together forever tell me why why why 我們曾承諾永遠在一起 告訴我為何要離開

Tell me how could you turn around and say goodbye bye bye bye 告訴我 你怎么可以轉身說拜拜

And the only thing that's left to do is cry cry cry 只剩下哭泣是唯一的主題 Not left me the city,you bye bye bye 別丟下我在這城市里 Bye bye Story About: 翻完這首歌就代表著，這首歌就要被埋葬在文件夾中，許久都不會翻出來。歌詞講離別，曲風很清新

真沒有想到，分手也可以這樣清新地進行。或許已是陌路后，不必再糾纏，徒增傷感。

不如灑脫離開，相忘于江湖啊 從此以后 風花雪月總會相遇 情意纏綿也不會停休 只是那些飄渺諾言 今生不必見

Love to Be Loved By U 喜歡被你愛

I can’t believe I’m standing here 難以相信我站在這里

Been waiting for so many years and 等了這么多年

Today I found the Queen to reign my heart 今天我終于找到了那個占領我心的女王 You changed my life so patiently 你慢慢地改變我的生活

And turned it into something good and real 使它變得美好而又真實

I feel just like I felt in all my dreams 就好像我在所有的美夢中所感受到的一樣 There are questions hard to answer 有很多問題難以解決 Can’t you see… 你知道嗎？

Baby, tell me how can I tell you 寶貝,告訴我我該怎么讓你明白 That I love you more than life 我愛你勝過我的生命

Show me how can I show you 告訴我我該怎么讓你知道

That I’m blinded by your light 我被你的耀眼光芒灼傷了雙眼

When you touch me I can touch you 當你觸碰我的時候,我也能觸碰到你 To find out the dream is true 來確定這樣的夢境是真的 I love to be loved by you 我喜歡被你愛

You're looking kind of scared right now 現在你看上去有些不知所措

You're waiting for the wedding vows 你在等待婚姻的誓言

But I don’t know if my tongue’s able to talk 但是我不知道我能否說得出口 Your beauty is just blinding me 你的美麗蒙蔽了我的雙眼

Like sunbeams on a summer stream 就像夏日溪流上的一縷陽光

and I gotta close my eyes to protect me 我得閉上我的雙眼來保護自己

Can you take my hand and lead me from here,please...能否請你牽著我的手,帶我離開這里 yeah...yeah...（這個不用翻了啊）Baby, tell me how can I tell you 寶貝,告訴我我該怎么讓你明白 That I love you more than life 我愛你勝過我的生命

Show me how can I show you 告訴我我該怎么讓你知道

That I’m blinded by your light 我被你的耀眼光芒灼傷了雙眼

When you touch me I can touch you 當你觸碰我的時候,我也能觸碰到你 To find out the dream is true 來確定這樣的夢境是真的 I love to be loved 我喜歡被愛

I need to be loved 我需要被愛

I love to be loved by you 我喜歡被你愛

I know they gonna say our love's not 我明白他們覺得我們的愛情不夠堅固 strong enough to last forever 不能成為永恒

And I know they gonna say that 我也知道他們會說

we'll give up because of heavy weather 我們會因處境艱難而放棄

But how can they understand 但是他們怎能明白

that our love is just heaven sent 我們的愛情是上天賜予的

We keep on going on and on 我們不斷地堅持前行

cause this is where we both belong 因為這才是我們的歸屬

Baby, tell me how can I tell you 寶貝,告訴我我該怎么讓你明白 That I love you more than life 我愛你勝過我的生命

Show me how can I show you 告訴我我該怎么讓你知道

That I’m blinded by your light 我被你的耀眼光芒灼傷了雙眼

When you touch me I can touch you 當你觸碰我的時候,我也能觸碰到你 To find out the dream is true 來確定這樣的夢境是真的 I love to be loved 我喜歡被愛 I need 我需要 yes 是的

I need to be loved 我需要被愛

I love to be loved by you 我喜歡被你愛

Yes,I love to be loved by you 是的,我喜歡被你愛著的感覺

《beautiful world》

演唱： Connie Talbot I wish I knew why the clouds above are so beautiful 我希望我知道為什么上方的云層是如此美麗

And I wish that I knew why they create pictures for me and you 我希望我知道為什么他們創建圖片對我和你 It's a miracle for us to share 這是一個奇跡,我們分享

White and grey patterns up in the air 白色和灰色模式懸而未決

I could daydream and look at the sky forever 我可以做白日夢,看看天空永遠

Can't you see that it's a beautiful world 你不能看到,它是一個美麗的世界 Come with me, I'll show you 跟我來,我將向您展示

Open your eyes and see the beauty around 睜開你的眼睛,看看周圍的美景 Take my hand, and I'll lead you 牽起我的手,我將引導你

It's so wonderful, so magical 它是如此美妙,那么神奇 Just see other day 看看其他天

I saw an angel and a polar bear playing games in the sky 我看見一個天使,一只北極熊在天空中玩游戲 I saw a king sat in a great big chair 我看見一個國王坐在大椅子

If you look at the clouds everyway 如果你看那些云從各個方面

Then they tell us a story each day 然后他們每天給我們講一個故事

And they don't make a sound but they'll share together 和他們不發出聲音,但他們會一起分享 Can't you see that it's a beautiful world 你不能看到,它是一個美麗的世界 Come with me, I'll show you 跟我來,我將向您展示

Open your eyes and see the beauty around 睜開你的眼睛,看看周圍的美景 Take my hand, and I'll lead you 牽起我的手,我將引導你

It's so wonderful, so magical 它是如此美妙,那么神奇

It's so wonderful, so magical 它是如此美妙,那么神奇 Beautiful...美麗的… Beautiful...美麗的…

Beautiful world...美麗的世界……

Can't you see that it's a beautiful world 你不能看到,它是一個美麗的世界 Come with me, I'll show you 跟我來,我將向您展示

Open your eyes and see the beauty around 睜開你的眼睛,看看周圍的美景 Take my hand, and I'll lead you 牽起我的手,我將引導你

It's so wonderful, so magical 它是如此美妙,那么神奇

It's so wonderful, so magical 它是如此美妙,那么神奇 It's a beautiful world...這是一個美麗的世界……

Diamonds

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Find light in the beautiful sea 尋遍了這蒼茫洋流里的微光

I chose to be happy 我選擇了幸福

You and I, you and I 我和你，你和我

We’re like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石

You’re a shooting star I see 你就像流星一樣劃過我的眼前

A vision of ecstasy 忘我的愿景

When you hold me, I’m alive 當你抱著我，我第一次感覺自己的存在 We’re like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石

I knew that we’d become right away, oh right away 我突然意識到我們將成為（永久的戀人）

At first sight I felt the energy of sun rays 第一眼（看見你），我感受到了陽光般的溫暖

I saw the life inside your eyes 從你的眼中我看到了（我未來的）生活

So shine bright, tonight, you and I 今晚，（只有）你和我是如此光彩耀人

We’re beautiful like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石一樣光彩耀人

Eye to eye, so alive（我們）四目相對，充滿活力

We’re beautiful like diamonds in the sky我們就像天空中的鉆石一樣光彩耀人

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

We’re beautiful like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石一樣光彩耀人

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

We’re beautiful like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石一樣光彩耀人

Palms rise to the universe（我們高興的）舉掌（歡呼）（的聲音）上升到宇宙

As we, moonshine and and molly 當我們，（在）月光照耀（下）和茉莉（花群中）

Feel the warmth we’ll never die 感受到（彼此的）溫暖，我們將得到永生

We’re like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石

You’re a shooting star I see 你就像流星一樣劃過我的眼前

A vision of ecstasy 忘我的愿景

When you hold me, I’m alive 當你抱著我，我第一次感覺自己的存在 We’re like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石

At first sight I felt the energy of sun rays 第一眼（看見你），我感受到了陽光般的溫暖

I saw the light inside your eyes 我在你的眼里看到了曙光

So shine bright, tonight, you and I 今晚，（只有）你和我是如此光彩耀人

We’re beautiful like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石一樣光彩耀人

Eye to eye, so alive（我們）四目相對，充滿活力

We’re beautiful like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石一樣光彩耀人

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

We’re beautiful like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石一樣光彩耀人

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

We’re beautiful like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石一樣光彩耀人

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

So shine bright, tonight, you and I 今晚，（只有）你和我是如此光彩耀人

We’re beautiful like diamonds in the sky 我們就像天空中的鉆石一樣光彩耀人

Eye to eye, so alive（我們）四目相對，充滿活力

We’re beautiful like diamonds in the sky我們就像天空中的鉆石一樣光彩耀人

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華 Shine bright like a diamond 如此璀璨的鉆漾年華

Kelly Clarkson-Catch My Breath I don’t want to be left behind

我不想被生活拋棄

Distance was a friend of mine 以前的我跟周圍的人一直保持著距離 Catching breath in a web of lies 在謊言編織的大網中殘喘 I’ve spent most of my life 大半的生命被浪費掉了！

Riding waves, playing acrobat Shadow boxing the other half Learning how to react 遇到有可能是另一半的人卻只能小心翼翼用頭腦來應對，而不是用心去投入 I’ve spent most of my time

大半的生命被浪費掉了！Catching my breath 停下來緩緩氣 Letting it go 放開一點

Turning my cheek for the sake of the show 給演藝生涯留一個側臉 Now that you know 你們要知道 This is my life 這是我自己的生活

I won’t be told what’s supposed to be right

我不想讓別人來告訴我 怎么做才是正確的 Catch my breath 停下來緩緩氣

No one can hold me back 沒人能阻止我

I ain’t got time for that

我沒時間去浪費了 Catch my breath 停下來緩緩氣

Won’t let em get me down

不會讓別人拖住我 It’s all so simple now

我的目標很明確了

Addicted to the love I’ve found

要沉迷在我找到的真愛中 Heavy heart now a weightless cloud 曾經沉重的心，現在輕地像浮云 Making time for the ones that count 給有意義的人留出時間

I’ll spend the rest of my time 我要把剩下的時間留給他

Laughing hard with the windows down 關上窗 大聲歡笑

Leaving footprints all over town 在小鎮里 到處閑逛

Keeping faith karma comes around 保持信念，就有好結果

Iwon’t spend the rest of my life

我不會再把剩下的生命 Catching my breath 用來茍顏殘喘 Letting it go 放開一點

Turning my cheek for the sake of the show 給演藝生涯留一個側臉 Now that you know 你們要知道 This is my life 這是我自己的生活

I won’t be told what’s supposed to be right

我不想讓別人來告訴我 怎么做才是正確的 Catch my breath 停下來緩緩氣

No one can hold me back 沒人能阻止我

I ain’t got time for that

我沒時間去浪費了 Catch my breath 停下來緩緩氣

Won’t let em get me down

不會讓別人拖住我 It’s all so simple now

我的目標很明確了

You help me see the beauty in everything 你讓我看到了生活的美好

（她男友是誰來著?，要是以后敢背叛肥K，就閹了他。。）Catching my breath 停下來緩緩氣

Letting it go 放開一點

Turning my cheek for the sake of the show 給演藝生涯留一個側臉 Now that you know 你們要知道 This is my life 這是我自己的生活

I won’t be told what’s supposed to be right

我不想讓別人來告訴我 怎么做才是正確的 Catching my breath 停下來緩緩氣 Letting it go 放開一點

Turning my cheek for the sake of the show 給演藝生涯留一個側臉 Now that you know 你們要知道 This is my life 這是我自己的生活

I won’t be told what’s supposed to be right

我不想讓別人來告訴我 怎么做才是正確的 Catch my breath 停下來緩緩氣

No one can hold me back 沒人能阻止我

I ain’t got time for that

我沒時間去浪費了 Catch my breath 停下來緩緩氣

Won’t let em get me down 不會讓別人拖住我 It’s all so simple now

我的目標很明確了 It’s all so simple now

我的目標很明確了 Catching my breath 停下來緩緩氣 Letting it go 放開一點

Turning my cheek for the sake of the show 給演藝生涯留一個側臉 Now that you know 你們要知道 This is my life 這是我自己的生活

I won’t be told what’s supposed to be right

我不想讓別人來告訴我 怎么做才是正確的 Catch my breath 停下來緩緩氣

No one can hold me back 沒人能阻止我

I ain’t got time for that

我沒時間去浪費了 Catch my breath 停下來緩緩氣

Won’t let em get me down

不會讓別人拖住我 It’s all so simple now

我的目標很明確了 It’s all so simple now

《Moves Like Jagger》

just shoot for the stars,If it feels right 射下星星，如果這樣感覺不錯

And then from my heart, If you feel like, 然后摘取我心，如果你愿意 You take me away, 你帶我離開

You make it okay, 因你讓這一切變美好 I swear I’ll behave 我發誓我會安分守己 You wanted control, 你曾想要控制 So we waited.所以我們等待 I put on a show 我總是在演出

Now we’re naked.但現在赤誠相待 You say I’m a kid, 你說我是一個孩子 My ego is bare, 自尊又好勝

I don’t give a shit!And it goes like this.但我不在乎了，所以就這樣吧

Take me by the tongue, And I’ll know you, 撫慰我吧，讓我更了解你

Kiss me til you’re drunk and I’ll show you, 吻我吧，直到你也沉醉其中

You wanna move like jagger, I've got the moves like jagger,I've got the moo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo ves like jagger 你失控，我失控

I don’t need to try and control you, 而我不需要試著去控制你

Look into my eyes and I’ll hold you, 看著我的眼睛吧，當我抱著你

With the moves like jagger, I've got the moves like jagger, I've got the moo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo ves like jagger 你失控，我失控

Well maybe it’s hard, 是的，也許這很困難

When you feel like You’re broken and scarred, 當你覺得你受到了傷害 It feels right, 但是你會感覺好起來的 When you’re with me, 當你和我在一起

I’ll make you believe, 我會讓你堅信 I’ve got the key.我有神奇之鑰

Oh, so get in the car, You can ride it, Oh，我們進車里去吧，今天你可以開 Wherever you want Get inside it.無論你想要去哪里，交由你決定 If you wanna steer 如果你想要掌舵 I’m shifting gears, 我就立刻換你

I’ll take it from here.從現在就開始

Oh!And it goes like this… 所以就這樣吧

Take me by the tongue, And I’ll know you, 撫慰我吧，讓我更了解你

Kiss me til you’re drunk and I’ll show you, 吻我吧，直到你也沉醉其中

You wanna move like jagger, I've got the moves like jagger,I've got the moo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo ves like jagger 你失控，我失控

I don’t need to try and control you, 而我不需要試著去控制你

Look into my eyes and I’ll hold you, 看著我的眼睛吧，當我抱著你

With the moves like jagger, I've got the moves like jagger, I've got the moo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo ves like jagger 你失控，我失控

(Christina’s Part)

（克里斯塔娜的部分）You wanna know, 你想要知道如何逗我笑？

Take control on me just for the night.這個夜晚你來掌控大局 When I share my secret, You’re gonna have to keep it.你要保守和你分享的秘密 Nobody else can see this.沒有人可以知道

So watch and learn I won't show you twice 所以為什么不呢？

Head to toe, ooh baby, 從頭到尾，原原本本 roll me right 我要說給你聽

But if i share my secret, You’re gonna have to keep it.你要保守和你分享的秘密 Nobody else can see this.沒有人可以知道

Oh!And it goes like this… 所以就這樣吧

Take me by the tongue, And I’ll know you, 撫慰我吧，讓我更了解你

Kiss me til you’re drunk and I’ll show you, 吻我吧，直到你也沉醉其中

You wanna move like jagger, I've got the moves like jagger,I've got the moo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo ves like jagger 你失控，我失控

I don’t need to try and control you, 而我不需要試著去控制你

Look into my eyes and I’ll hold you, 看著我的眼睛吧，當我抱著你

With the moves like jagger, I've got the moves like jagger, I've got the moo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo ves like jagger 你失控，我失控

Burning Passion is sweet 激情令人幸福 Love makes weak 愛情令人脆弱

You said you cherished freedom so You refuse to let it go 你曾說過自由至上 因此你不愿被束縛 Follow your fate 命中注定

Love and hate 愛恨情仇

Never fail to seize the day But dont give yourself away 日夜追逐你的夢想 從未放棄 Oh when the night falls 噢 當夜暮降臨時 And your all alone 你孤身一人

In your deepest sleep what Are you dreaming of 在你沉睡之時 你夢到了什么

My skin's still burning from your touch 肌膚之親 讓我陶醉

Oh I just can't get enough I 噢 我卻無法滿足

Said I wouldn't ask for much 曾答應不再向你索取

But your eyes are dangerous 然而 你的眼神攝人心魄

Oh the thought keep spinning in my head 對你的思念揮之不去

Can we drop this masquerade 我們可否坦誠相對

I can't predict where it ends 縱使結局無法預算

If your the rock I'll crush against 我仍舊甘愿飛蛾撲火 Trapped in a crowd 置身于人海茫茫之中

The music is loud 樂聲嘈雜

I said I love my freedom to Now I'm not sure I do 我曾說過 我同樣珍愛自由 現在卻不可置否 All eyes on you 視線被你占據 Rings so true 我已看清一切

Better quit while you're ahead Now I'm not so sure I am 感情深入之時 卻是分手之日 然而我卻無法做到 My soul my heart 我的靈魂 我的芳心

If you're near if you're far 無論你近在咫尺或是遠在天涯 My life my love 我的生命 我的摯愛

You can have it all....ooohaaaah 請一并帶走

Domino 詞：V-SEASON 曲：JESSIE J 編曲：JESSIE J I'm feeling sexy and free 我感覺性感自在

Like glitter's raining on me 全身散發閃耀光芒

You like a shot of pure gold 而你就像純金般奪我眼目 I think I'm 'bout to explode 我想我快忍不住了

I can taste the tension like a cloud of smoke in the air 我能品味到這份緊張感就像散在空中的煙云

Now I'm breathing like I'm running cause you're taking me there 而現在的我已呼吸急促 因為你帶我來這

Don't you know...you spin me out of control 難道你不知道 你快讓我失控了 Ooh ooh ooh 喔 喔 喔~ We can do this all night 就這樣搞翻整晚

Turn this club, skin tight 轉動夜店 緊緊相融 Baby come on 寶貝 快來吧

Pull me like a bass drum 快像大鼓般演奏我 Sparkin' up a rhythm 激起屬於我們的節拍 Baby, come on!寶貝 快來吧!Ooh ooh ooh ooh 喔 喔 喔 喔~ Rock my world into the sunlight 快震撼我的世界 讓人身陽光滿溢

Make this dream the best I've ever known 然後做場從未有過的美夢

Dirty dancing in the moonlight 就這樣濕身熱舞在月下

Take me down like I'm a domino 再把我像骨牌般推倒吧 Every second is a highlight 當我們忘我撫摸彼此時

When we touch don't ever let me go 每一秒鐘都是段高潮

Dirty dancing in the moonlight 就這樣濕身熱舞在月下

Take me down like I'm a domino 再把我像骨牌般推倒吧

You got me loosing my mind 你讓我意亂神迷

My heart beats out of time 害我的心跳到不行

I'm seeing Hollywood stars 就像看見了好萊屋的巨星 You stroke me like a guitar 快把我當吉他般彈奏

(副歌)Ooh baby baby got me feeling so right 喔 寶貝 寶貝 快讓我爽快

Ooh baby baby dancing in the moonlight(X3)喔 寶貝 寶貝 就讓我們在月光下暢舞吧

Good Time 美好時光

Woah-oh-oh-oh

It's always a good time處處都是美好時光

Woah-oh-oh-oh

It's always a good time處處都是美好時光

Woke up on the right side of the bed 今天心情特別好

What's up with this Prince song inside my head?怎么會有首王子歌在我腦中揮之不去

Hands up if you're down to get down tonight 如果你也打算來狂歡那就舉起手來歡呼吧

Cuz it's always a good time 因為這將會是段美好時光

Slept in all my clothes like I didn't care穿著衣服睡覺與否我不在乎

Hopped into a cab, take me anywhere跳進一輛出租車里，帶我去任何地方吧

I'm in if you're down to get down tonight如果今夜你打算狂歡的話我也加入

Cuz it's always a good time 因為這將會是段美好時光

Good morning and good night無論早晚都你好啊

I wake up at twilight我在這霞光中蘇醒

It's gonna be alright一切都會好起來的 We don't even have to try 甚至我們都不用在意

It's always a good time這里就已是美好時光 Woah-oh-oh-oh Woah-oh-oh-oh It's always a good time讓我們盡情享受著美好時光 Woah-oh-oh-oh Woah-oh-oh-oh We don't even have to try, it's always a good time無需刻意追求，盡情享受這美好時光

Feet down dropped my phone in the pool again一不留神又把手機掉進了泳池里

Checked out of my room hit the ATM 退房結賬后直奔ATM

Let's hang out if you're down to get down tonight 讓我們今夜一起出去狂歡吧

Cuz it's always a good time 因為這將會是段美好時光

Doesn't matter when無論何時，It's always a good time then那時將會是美好時光

Doesn't matter where無論何地，It's always a good time there那里將會是美好時光 home Hold on, to me as we go 在我們前行時緊緊抓住我

As we roll down this unfamiliar road 當我們沿著這條陌生的路一直走下去

And although this wave is stringing us along 盡管這樣只會把我們引入歧途

Just know you’re not alone

你知道你并不孤獨就行了

Cause I’m going to make this place your home

因為我要把這個地方打造成你的家園

Settle down, it’ll all be clear

我們一定會在這個地方定居下來

Don’t pay no mind to the demons 不要無視那些負能量

They fill you with fear 它們讓你與恐懼為伴

The trouble it might drag you down 艱難困苦可能會把你拖垮

If you get lost, you can always be found 如果你迷失了方向，你會被我找到

Just know you’re not alone

你知道你并不孤獨就行了

Cause I’m going to make this place your home

因為我要把這個地方打造成你的家園

Settle down, it’ll all be clear

我們一定會在這個地方定居下來

Don’t pay no mind to the demons

不要無視那些負能量

They fill you with fear 它們讓你與恐懼為伴

The trouble it might drag you down 艱難困苦可能會把你拖垮

If you get lost, you can always be found 如果你迷失了方向，你會被我找到

Just know you’re not alone

你知道你并不孤獨就行了

Cause I’m going to make this place your home

因為我要把這個地方打造成你的家園

Jar of love Another sunrise,another sunset 又一次日出 又一次日落 Soon it'll all be yesterday 轉瞬一切都會是昨天

Another good day,another bad day 好的一天 壞的一天 what did you do today 你又如何對待今天

Why do we choose to chase 為什么我們選擇去追求 What we'll lose 我們終將失去的東西

What you want isn't what you have 你所有擁有的并不是你想要的 What you have may not be 你所擁有的也許不會 Not be yours to keep 不會永遠屬于你

If I could find love, at a stop 如果我能找到愛情 在某一站 Be in a park, with open arms 我會張開雙手 站在公園

I would save all my love,in a jar made of spark 我會將我所有的愛收藏在一個火花做成的罐子里

Sealed in my beating heart 密封的在我跳動的心里 Could it be yours to keep 它能成為你所珍藏的嗎 The jar of love 這滿載著愛的罐子

Another sunrise,another sunset 又一次日出 又一次日落 Soon it'll all be yesterday 轉瞬一切都會是昨天

Another good day,another bad day 好的一天 壞的一天 what did you do today 你又如何對待今天

Why do we choose to chase 為什么我們選擇去追求 What we'll lose 我們終將失去的東西

What you want isn't what you have 你所有擁有的并不是你想要的 What you have may not be 你所擁有的也許不會 Not be yours to keep 不會永遠屬于你

If I could find love, at a stop 如果我能找到愛情 在某一站 Be in a park, with open arms 我會張開雙手 站在公園

I would save all my love,in a jar made of spark 我會將我所有的愛收藏在一個火花做成的罐子里

Sealed in my beating heart 密封的在我跳動的心里 Could it be yours to keep 它能成為你所珍藏的嗎 The jar of love 這滿載著愛的罐子 Could you be my love 你能成為我的愛嗎 Could you be her love 你能成為她的愛嗎 Could you be his love 你能成為他的愛嗎 Could you be my love 你能成為我的愛嗎 Could I be your love 我能成為你的愛嗎

Wanting 曲婉婷 Life Is Like A Song 中英文歌詞 Do you know the way you walk 你知道嗎你走路的方式 the way you talk 你說話的腔調

the way you said I'd love to 還有你那句 樂意至極 It makes me feel alive 都讓我感到無比真實

Do you know the way you run your fingers through my hair 你知道嗎 你奔跑的笨樣 你手指纏繞我頭發的樣子

And I am with you now 讓我知道我此刻和你在一起 Life is like a 人生就像

Life is like a song 人生就如那笙笙長歌 Sing along 始終相隨

On and on and on and lingers on 余音繞梁 日日不絕 Come along 來吧

Piece together phrases in a funny way 以一種有趣的方式拼湊著只字片語 Life is like a song 人生就像一首歌曲 It was a rainy day 那是一個下雨天 I got you on the phone 我打電話給你 How do you do 你好嗎

It's been a while or two 已經有一段時間了 a while or two 一段時間了

Suddenly the clouds had disappeared 突然間烏云消失了 Love is kind 愛情是親切的 Love is blind 愛情是盲目的

I don't mind being your lover's fool 不要介意做你戀人的傻瓜 Life is like a 人生就像

Life is like a song 人生就如那笙笙長歌 Sing along 始終相隨

On and on and on and lingers on 余音繞梁 日日不絕 Come along 來吧

Piece together phrases in a funny way 以一種有趣的方式拼湊著只字片語 Life is like a song 人生就像一首歌曲 Oh life is like a song 哦人生就像一首歌曲 Life is like a song 人生就像一首歌曲 It has its ups and downs 它有起有落 Oh life is like a song 哦人生就像一首歌曲 And it carries us on 它隨著我們繼續 Ooooooh it's like a song 哦它就像一首歌曲 On and on and on 持久不散 Life is like a song 人生就像一首歌曲 And it has its ups and downs 它有起有落 It carries us on 它隨著我們繼續 Life is like a 人生就像 Life is like a 人生就像 Life is like a 人生就像

Life is like a song 人生就像一首歌曲

Nothing in the world It's been so long I can't remember when因為太久已不記得 We didn't care how deep it was 深陷太深未曾在意 We dived right in Watching everything around us disappear 看著身邊一切漸逝 Oh I've missed you here 曾經思念著你

And it seems the little things get in the way似乎有一些挫折 We're so caught up in routine from day to day 只是每日例行公事

Sometimes it feels like we're not anchored anywhere 有時感到我們沒有停泊 Oh I've missed you, yeah 已經錯過了你

So tell me there's nothing in the world 告訴我沒有什么 That could ever come between us 可以將我們分離 Show me you're not afraid tonight 讓我知道你不怕今夜 Baby make me believe 讓我相信

That there's nothing in the world that could ever 沒有任何東西在任何時間 Steal the moment from right here and now 偷走這一刻(Nothing)Nothing...in the world Two shadows falling back together now 兩影相隨 重疊交錯 Baby we spent too much time just hiding out浪費時間只為藏躲 And there's nowhere that I'd rather be than here 只有這里讓我停留 Cos I've missed you, yeah 因為在這里 錯過了你 So tell me there's nothing in the world 告訴我沒有什么 That could ever come between us 可以將我們分離 Show me you're not afraid tonight 讓我知道你不怕今夜 Baby make me believe 讓我相信

That there's nothing in the world that could ever 沒有任何東西在任何時間 Steal the moment from right here and now 偷走這一刻(Nothing)Nothing...in the world(Nothing in the world)(In the world)（zuochamo）(There's nothing in the world)So tell me there's nothing in the world(nothin' in the world)告訴我沒有什么 That could ever come between us 可以將我們分離 Show me you're not afraid tonight 讓我知道你不怕今夜 Baby make me believe 讓我相信

That there's nothing in the world that could ever 沒有任何東西在任何時間 Steal the moment from right here and now 偷走這一刻(Nothing)Nothing So tell me there's nothing in the world(nothin' in the world)告訴我沒有什么 That could ever come between us 可以將我們分離 Show me you're not afraid tonight 讓我知道你不怕今夜 Baby make me believe 讓我相信

That there's nothing in the world that could ever(ever)沒有任何東西在任何時間 Steal the moment from right here and now 偷走這一刻(Nothing)Nothing(Right here and now)So tell me there's nothing in the world(nothin' in the world)告訴我沒有什么 That could ever come between us 可以將我們分離 Show me you're not afraid tonight 讓我知道你不怕今夜 Baby make me believe 讓我相信

That there's nothing in the world that could ever 沒有任何東西在任何時間 Steal the moment from right here and now 偷走這一刻(Nothing)Nothing

Whataya want from me Hey, slow it down 嘿，慢點

What do you want from me 你要從我這里得到什么？ What do you want from me 你要從我這里得到什么？ Yeah, I’m afraid 嘢，我害怕了

What do you want from me 你要從我這里得到什么？ What do you from me 你要從我這里得到什么？ There might have been a time 也許有段時間了

I would give myself away 我想要放棄自我 Ooh once upon a time 哦～每隔一段時間 I didn’t give a damn 我不在乎

But now here we are 但是現在我們在這里

So what do you want from me 所以，你要從我這得到什么？ What do you want from me 你要從我這得到什么？ Just don’t give up 不要放棄 I’m workin’ it out 我正在設法解決 Please don’t give in 請不要放棄

I won’t let you down 我不會讓你失望 It messed me up, 我很亂...Need a second to breathe 需要透一口氣

Just keep coming around 盡管繼續

Hey, what do you want from me 嘿，你要從我這得到什么？ What do you want from me 嘿，你要從我這得到什么？ What do you want from me 嘿，你要從我這得到什么？ Yeah, it’s plain to see 嘢～看見這個很痛苦 That baby you’re beautiful 寶貝，你很美麗

And it’s nothing wrong with you 還有這不是你的問題 It’s me – I’m a freak 是我，我很奇怪 But thanks for lovin’ me 但是，謝謝你愛我

Cause you’re doing it perfectly 因為，你做的很完美

Yeah there might have been a time 嘢，也許有段時間了

When I would let you step away 當我想讓你離開

I wouldn’t even try but I think 我都不回去嘗試 You could save my life 你可以拯救我的生活 Just don’t give up 不要放棄 I’m workin’ it out 我正在想辦法 Please don’t give in 請不要放棄

I won’t let you down 我不會讓你失望 It messed me up, 我很亂

Need a second to breathe 需要透一口氣

Just keep coming around 請繼續

Hey, what do you want from me 嘿，你要從我這得到什么....

第四篇：經典英語勵志名言帶中文翻譯

if you should put even a little on a little, and should do this often, soon this too would become big.偉大的事業是通過不懈努力，一磚一瓦堆起來的。

victory won’t come to me unless i go to it.勝利是不會向我們走來的，我必須自己走向勝利。

all that you do, do with your might;things done by halves are never done right.做一切事情都應盡力而為，不可半途而廢。

do nor for one repulse, for go the purpose that you resolved to effort.不要因為一次挫折就放棄你原來決心要達到的目標。

for all pain helps to make us rise, however much we may hate it at the time.一切痛苦都有助于我們奮發向上，不論我們當時是多么憎恨它。

fortune shows her power when there is no wise preparation for resisting her.沒有向命運抗爭的明智準備，命運便會顯示其威力。

good courage breaks bad luck.勇氣可以改變厄運。

great works are performed not by strength but by perseverance.大業成于百折不撓，不論力量大小。

he who seize the right moment, is the right man.誰把握機遇，誰就心想事成。hope for the best and prepare for the worst.抱最好的希望 做最壞的大算。

a man can fail many times, but he isn’t a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.一個人可以失敗很多次，但是只要他沒有開始責怪旁人，他還不是一個失敗者。a strong man will struggle with the storms of fate.強者能同命運的風暴抗爭。a thousand-li journey is started by taking the first step.千里之行，始于足下。in time of prosperity,friends will be plenty ,in time of adversity,not one amongst twenty.得勢時朋友盈門，失勢時不見一人,富在深山有遠親，窮在鬧市無人問。man errs as long as he strives.失誤是進取的代價。

man struggles upwards;water flows downwards.人往高處走，水往低處流。no road of flowers lead to glory.沒有一條通往光榮的道路是鋪滿鮮花的。

nothing in the world is difficult for one who sets his mind on it.世上無難事，只怕有心人。

on life’s earnest battle they only prevail, who daily march onward and never say fail.生活在頑強戰斗中，只有每天不屈不撓奮勇向前的人才能取得勝利。

perseverance is falling nineteen times and succeeding the twentieth.只要堅韌不拔，失敗十九次之后，第二十次就會成功。

poverty is not a shame, but the being ashamed of it is.貧窮非恥辱 恥貧乃恥。prosperity is not without many fears and disasters, adversity is not without comforts and hopes.幸運中并非不攙雜各種擔心與煩惱，而厄運中也并非不存在欣慰與期望。strength alone knows conflict, weakness is below even defeat, and is born vanquished.只有強者才懂得斗爭；弱者甚至失敗都不夠資格，而是生來就是被征服的。the darkest hour is that before the dawn.黎明之前最黑暗。

the drop of rain makes a hole in the stone, not by violence, but by of falling.雨滴穿石，不是靠蠻力，而是靠持之以恒。

the horizon of life is broadened chiefly by the enlargement of the heart.生活的地平線是隨著心靈的開闊而變得寬廣的。

wish you an endless view to cheer your eyes, then one more story mount and higher rise.欲窮千里目，更上一層樓。

Business before pleasure.事業在先，享樂在后。

Between two stools one falls to the ground.腳踏兩頭要落空。

What makes life dreary is the want of motive.沒有了目的，生活便郁悶無光。Living without an aim is like sailing without a compass.— John Ruskin生活沒有目標，猶如航海沒有羅盤。– 羅斯金

The shortest answer is doing.最簡短的回答就是行動。

None is of freedom or of life deserving unless he daily conquers it anew.-Erasmu只有每天再度戰勝生活并奪取自由的人，才配享受生活的自由。

第五篇：英語名言,帶中文翻譯

畏懼錯誤就是毀滅進步！遮掩錯誤就是躲避真理——周恩來

· The good seaman is known in bad weather.· 驚濤駭浪，方顯英雄本色。

Do not , for one repulse , give upthe purpose that you resolved to effect.(William Shakespeare , British dramatist)

不要只因一次失敗，就放棄你原來決心想達到的目的。(英國劇作家 莎士比亞.W.)If you doubt yourself , then indeed you stand on shaky11 ground.（Ibsen , Norwegian dramatist)

如果你懷疑自己，那么你的立足點確實不穩固了。(挪威劇作家 易卜生)

The important thing in life is to have a great aim , and the determination to attain it.(Johan Wolfgang von Goethe , German Poet and dramatist)

人生重要的事情就是確定一個偉大的目標，并決心實現它。(德國詩人、戲劇家 歌德.J.M.)

Genius only means hard-working all one's life.(Mendeleyer , Russian Chemist)

天才只意味著終身不懈的努力。(俄國化學家 門捷列耶夫)

If you wish to succeed , you should use persistence as your good friend , experience as your reference , prudence as your brother and hope as your sentry.(Thomas Edison , American inventor)

如果你希望成功，當以恒心為良友、以經驗為參謀、以謹慎為兄弟、以希望為哨兵。(美國發明家 愛迪生.T.)

Weep no more , no sigh , nor groan.Sorrow calls no time that's gone.(John Fletcher , British dramatist)

別哭泣，別嘆息，別呻吟；悲傷喚不回流逝的時光。(英國劇作家 弗萊沏.J.)

Histories make men wise;poems witty;the mathematics subtle;natural philosophy deep;moral grave;logic and rhetoric able to contend.(Francis Bacon , British philosopher)

歷史使人明智；詩詞使人靈秀；數學使人周密；自然哲學使人深刻；倫理使人莊重；邏輯修辭學使人善辨。(英國哲學家 培根.F.)

必ず勝って