第一篇：David Cameron在蘇格蘭公投前的演講

David Cameron’s Last Speech in Scotland Before Referendum

We meet in a week that could change the United Kingdom forever.Indeed, it could end the United Kingdom as we know it.On Thursday, Scotland votes, and the future of our country is at stake.On Friday, people could be living in a different country, with a different place in the world and a different future ahead of it.This is a decision that could break up our family of nations, and rip Scotland from the rest of the UK.And we must be very clear.There’s no going back from this.No re-run.This is a once-and-for-all decision.If Scotland votes yes, the UK will split, and we will go our separate ways forever.When people vote on Thursday they are not just voting for themselves, but for their children and grandchildren and the generations beyond.So I want to speak directly to the people of this country today about what is at stake.I speak for millions of people across England, Wales and Northern Ireland – and many in Scotland, too who would be utterly heart-broken by the break-up of the United Kingdom.Utterly heart-broken to wake up on Friday morning to the end of the country we love to know that Scots would no longer join with the English, Welsh and Northern Irish in our Army, Navy and Air Force..in our UK-wide celebrations and commemorations, in UK sporting teams from the Olympics to the British Lions.The United Kingdom would be no more.No UK pensions, no UK passports, no UK pound.The greatest example of democracy the world has ever known, of openness of people of different nationalities and faiths coming together as one, would be no more.It would be the end of a country that launched the Enlightenment, that abolished slavery that drove the industrial revolution, that defeated fascism...The end of a country that people around the world respect and admire the end of a country that all of us call home.And we built this home together.It’s only become Great Britain because of the greatness of Scotland.Because of the thinkers, writers, artists, leaders, soldiers, inventors who have made this country what it is.It’s Alexander Fleming and David Hume;J.K.Rowling and Andy Murray and all the millions of people who have played their part in this extraordinary success story...the Scots who led the charge on pensions and the NHS and on social justice.We did all this together.For the people of Scotland to walk away now would be like painstakingly building a home – and then walking out the door and throwing away the keys.So I would say to everyone voting on Thursday, please remember.This isn’t just any old country.This is the United Kingdom.This is our country.And you know what makes us truly great? It’s not our economic might or military prowess – it’s our values.British values.Fairness.Freedom.Justice.The values that say wherever you are, whoever you are, your life has dignity and worth.The values that say we don’t walk on by when people are sick that we don’t ask for your credit card in the hospital that we don’t turn our backs when you get old and frail.That we don’t turn a blind eye or a cold heart to people around the world who are desperate and crying out for help.This is what Britain means.This is what makes us the greatest country on earth.And it’s why millions of us could not bear to see that country ending – for good, for ever – on Friday.Now I know that there are many people across Scotland who are planning to vote Yes.I understand why this might sound appealing.It’s the promise of something different.I also know that the people who are running the Yes campaign are painting a picture of a Scotland that is better in every way, and they can be good at painting that picture.But when something looks too good to be true – that’s usually because it is.And it is my duty to be clear about the likely consequences of a Yes Vote.Independence would not be a trial separation.It would be a painful divorce.And as Prime Minister I have to tell you what that would mean.It would mean we no longer share the same currency.It would mean the armed forces we have built up together over centuries being split up forever.It would mean our pension funds sliced up – at some cost.It would mean the borders we have would become international and may no longer be so easily crossed.It would mean the automatic support that you currently get from British embassies when you’re travelling around the world would come to an end.It would mean over half of Scottish mortgages suddenly, from one day to the next, being provided by banks in a foreign country.It would mean that interest rates in Scotland are no longer set by the Bank of England – with the stability and security that promises.It would meanno country is.Of course we must constantly change and improve people’s lives.No-one is content while there are still children living in poverty.No-one is content while there are people struggling, and young people not reaching their potential.Yes, every political party is different.But we are all of us – Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Nationalists – on a constant mission to change our country for the better.The question is: how do you get that change? For me it’s simple.You don’t get the change you want by ripping your country apart.You don’t get change by undermining your economy and damaging your businesses and diminishing your place in the world.But you can get real, concrete change on Thursday: if you vote No.*Business as usual’ is not on the ballot paper.The status quo is gone.This campaign has swept it away.There is no going back to the way things were.A vote for No means real change.And we have spelled that change out in practical terms, with a plan and a process.If we get a No vote on Thursday, that will trigger a major, unprecedented programme of devolution with additional powers for the Scottish Parliament.Major new powers over tax, spending and welfare services.We have agreed a timetable for that stronger Scottish Parliament: a time-table to bring in the new powers that will go ahead if there is a No vote a White Paper by November, put into draft legislation by January.This is a timetable that is now agreed by all the main political parties and set in stone and I am prepared to work with all the main parties to deliver this during 2015.So a No vote actually means faster, fairer, safer and better change.And this is a vital point: Scotland is not an observer in the affairs of this country.Scotland is shaping and changing the United Kingdom for the better – more so today than at any point in the last three hundred years and will continue to help shape the constitution of our country.And Scottish people can enjoy the additional powers its Parliament gives without losing the UK pension, the UK pound or the UK passport.Real change is Scotland’s for the taking.The power to set your own course and make your own decisions, with the security of being in the UK,without the risks of going it alone.It’s the best of both worlds.Scotland’s identity is already strong, strong Scottish culture, strong Scottish arts, a strong Church of Scotland, and in the last 15 years you have built a strong Scottish Parliament, not a fleeting institution but a permanent one.So the vote on Thursday is not about whether Scotland is a nation.Scotland is a proud, strong, successful nation.The vote on Thursday is about two competing visions for Scotland’s future.The Nationalists’ vision of narrowing down, going it alone, breaking all ties with the UK.Or the patriotic vision of a strong Scottish nation allied to the rest of the United Kingdom with its own stronger Scottish Parliament at its heart and with the benefits of working together in the UK on jobs, pensions, healthcare funding, the currency, interest rates.It really is the best of both worlds and it’s the best way to get real change and secure a better future for your children and grandchildren.And speaking of family – that is quite simply how I feel about this.We are a family.The United Kingdom is not one nation.We are four nations in a single country.That can be difficult but it is wonderful.Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland, different nations, with individual identities competing with each other even at times enraging each other, while still being so much stronger together.We are a family of nations.Why should the next generation of that family be forced to choose whether to identify only with Edinburgh or only with London, choose which embassy they want to go to when they are in trouble abroad, or pack their passport when they*re going to see friends and loved ones.A family is not a compromise, or a second best, it is a magical identity, that makes us more together than we can ever be apart so please – do not break this family apart.In human relations it’s almost never a good thing to turn away from each other, put up walls, score new lines on the map.Why would we take one Great Britain and turn it into separate smaller nations? What is that an answer to? How will that help the ambitious young people who want to make their mark on the world, or the pensioner who just wants security, or the family relying on jobs make in the UK? Let no-one fool you that ‘Yes’ is a positive vision.It*s about dividing people, closing doors, making foreigners of our friends and family.This isn’t an optimistic vision.The optimistic vision is of our family of nations staying together, there for each other in the hard times, coming through to better times.We’ve just pulled through a great recession together.We’re moving forward together.The road has been long but it is finally leading upwards, and that’s why I ask you to vote No to walking away.Vote No – and you are voting for a bigger and broader and better future for Scotland, and you are investing in the future for your children and grandchildren.So this is our message to the people of Scotland.We want you to stay.Head and heart and soul, we want you to stay.Please: don’t mix up the temporary and the permanent.Don’t think: I’m frustrated with politics right now, so I’ll walk out the door and never come back.If you don’t like me – I won’t be here forever.If you don’t like this Government – it won’t last forever.But if you leave the UK – that will be forever.Yes, the different parts of the UK don’t always see eye-to-eye.Yes, we need change – and we will deliver it.But to get that change, to get a brighter future, we don’t need to tear our country apart.In two days, this long campaign will be at an end.And as you stand in the stillness of the polling booth, I hope you will ask yourself this.Will my family and I truly be better off by going it alone? Will we really be more safe and secure? Do I really want to turn my back on the rest of Britain, and why is it that so many people across the world are asking: why would Scotland want to do that? Why? And if you don’t know the answer to these questions – then vote No.At the end of the day, all the arguments of this campaign can be reduced to a single fact.We are better together.So as you reach your final decision, please: Don’t let anyone tell you that you can’t be a proud Scot and a proud Brit.Don’t lose faith in what this country is – and what we can be.Don’t forget what a great United Kingdom you are part of.Don*t turn your backs on what is the best family of nations in the world and the best hope for your family in this world.So please, from all of us: Vote to stick together...Vote to stay......Vote to save our United Kingdom.

第二篇：淺談蘇格蘭公投

淺談 “蘇格蘭公投”和英國人的“妥協”精神

北京時間2014年9月19日，“蘇格蘭獨立公投”結果出爐，55%選民投下反對票，對獨立說―不‖。反獨立陣營獲勝，蘇格蘭將繼續作為大不列顛及北愛爾蘭聯合王國的一部分，維持英國統一現狀。

首先分析一下為什么蘇格蘭獨立運動會發展到今天這種地步？從歷史上看，蘇格蘭和英格蘭這兩個王國在歷史上就一直爭斗不斷。十七世紀末，英格蘭控制世界海上霸權，經濟發展獨步全球。與之形成鮮明對比是，由于森嚴的貿易壁壘和海上戰爭的失利，蘇格蘭的經濟發展之路變得舉步維艱，國內矛盾尖銳。為了擺脫這一困境，享受英格蘭經濟發展紅利，1707年5月1日，《英格蘭及蘇格蘭王國合并條約》正式生效，蘇格蘭正式“嫁給”英格蘭。上世紀70年代，蘇格蘭北部發現了北海油田，為爭取更大的利益，“蘇獨”運動重新抬頭并日益高漲。英國政府迫于蘇格蘭民意的壓力，先是恢復取消了近三百年的蘇格蘭議會，接著2012年卡梅倫政府同蘇格蘭首席部長薩爾蒙德簽署公投協議，規定于2014年9月18日就“蘇格蘭是否應該成為一個獨立國家”舉行公投，并且英國政府將承認公投的結果。毫無疑問，9月18的公投是一場真正的大決戰！

其次為什么英國政府會同意蘇格蘭的公投？這一點中國人可能很難理解，要是香港舉行獨立公投，中國政府斷然不會答應！同意公投源于英國人固有的“妥協”精神，這種精神最早源于英國資產階級革命。1688年，光榮革命確立了英國資產階級的統治地位，但同時一定程度地保留了封建統治。光榮革命以不流血的方式完成，保持了政局和社會穩定，為工業革命鋪平了道路。這種“妥協”精神，還表現為非暴力不合作運動，對世界反殖民運動的反應以及香港問題的解決。二戰以后，主要歐洲殖民國家力量大幅削弱，世界殖民體系土崩瓦解，英國人并不全力以赴地鎮壓反抗運動，而是審時度勢，見好就收，與絕大多數獨立運動領導人達成妥協性協議，最大限度地保留英國的影響力。1984年，英國首相撒切爾與鄧小平簽署《中英聯合聲明》，雖然交出了主權，但是其經濟、法律制度等影響力仍然將在香港繼續保留50年不變。1947年，拋出“蒙巴頓方案‖，承認印度和巴基斯坦的獨立，但是兩國獨立后仍為英聯邦成員，且獨立后的兩國斗爭不斷，印度數十年的世界大國夢仍然只是紙上談兵。傲慢，保守，自由，實際主義者，是英國人的標簽，”妥協“并不懦弱是這些性格的行為表現。

這場看似冒險的政治賭博，以蘇格蘭繼續留在聯合王國結束，徹底粉碎蘇格蘭民族獨立運動愈演愈烈的勢頭，蘇格蘭民主黨領袖薩爾蒙德黯然下臺。其實投票的結果早在預料之中，精明的英國政治家斷然不會愚蠢到去冒險分裂300年的聯合王國。未來的不確定性和獨立后的諸多不利，300年聯合王國的輝煌歷史讓很大一部分人仍然無法割舍熱愛的英國。卡梅倫政府尋思，與其讓獨立運動愈發不可收拾，不如以退為進，用一次公投一勞永逸的解決未來可能面臨的更嚴重的國家分裂問題。正像卡梅倫在公投之前的演講中講到：“We could have blocked that, we could have put it off but just as with other big issues, it was right to takethe big decision。”—— “我們本可以阻止公投，也可以將其推遲——但這就像其他問題一樣，接受重大的決定才是正確的，而不是進行躲避。”結果公布之后卡梅倫在唐寧街10號首相官邸門前發表公開講話：“The people of Scotland have spoken.It is a clear result.They have kept our country of four nations together.Like millions of other people, I am delighted。——蘇格蘭人民做出了選擇。這是一個清晰的結果。他們選擇繼續一起組成我們的國家。和數百萬人民一樣，我非常高興。” “So there can be no disputes, no re-runs – we have heard the settled will of the Scottish people。”——“因此結論無可爭議，也不會重來，我們已經聽到了蘇格蘭人民的堅定愿望。”

如果仔細分析一下，不難發現蘇格蘭獨立運動其實很難獲得很難成功。第一，英國的主體英格蘭控制著英國的政治、經濟和話語權，蘇格蘭的政治、經濟、金融和軍事大權被中央政府所掌控，獨立影后要重建這些系統的難度不小。BBC、倫敦金融時報、每日郵報等主流媒體均被中央政府控制，蘇格蘭人的話語權十分有限。第二，公投之前的民調顯示大部分的時間反獨陣營是占優勢的，這還是在反獨陣營未使出全力大力宣傳的情況下的結果，直到公投前夕，民調首次出現微弱逆轉，卡梅倫政府才十萬火急的煽情演講，賣力宣傳，各大媒體也是助力反獨陣營，在胡蘿卜加大棒的組合拳下，獨立派孤掌難鳴，敗下陣來。第二，蘇格蘭王國雖然占英國國土的近1/3，但是其人口和經濟卻不到英國總量的1/10，英國政府給予蘇格蘭的補助比其稅收還多得多，這也是很多人不支持獨立的原因之一。另外一個很重要的原因是英國人的傲慢，這種傲慢來自于哪里？來源于“我是英國人‖的自我認同，來源于近代史中三百年的輝煌史，來源于英國文化在世界上的影響力，這其實包含著很重要的愛國思想。

這場公投的本質是一場實力不對稱的競選——獨立派必敗無疑的競選。

第三篇：卡梅倫在蘇格蘭公投前的最后一次演講

We meet in a week that could change the United Kingdom forever.Indeed, it could end the United Kingdom as we know it.On Thursday, Scotland votes, and the future of our country is at stake.On Friday, people could be living in a different country, with a different place in the world and a different future ahead of it.This is a decision that could break up our family of nations, and rip Scotland from the rest of the UK.And we must be very clear.There’s no going back from this.No re-run.This is a once-and-for-all decision.If Scotland votes yes, the UK will split, and we will go our separate ways forever.When people vote on Thursday they are not just voting for themselves, but for their children and grandchildren and the generations beyond.So I want to speak directly to the people of this country today about what is at stake.I speak for millions of people across England, Wales and Northern Ireland – and many in Scotland, too who would be utterly heart-broken by the break-up of the United Kingdom.Utterly heart-broken to wake up on Friday morning to the end of the country we love, to know that Scots would no longer join with the English, Welsh and Northern Irish in our Army, Navy and Air Force, in our UK-wide celebrations and commemorations, in UK sporting teams from the Olympics to the British Lions.The United Kingdom would be no more.No UK pensions, no UK passports, no UK pound.The greatest example of democracy the world has ever known, of openness, of people of different nationalities and faiths coming together as one, would be no more.It would be the end of a country that launched the Enlightenment, that abolished slavery, that drove the industrial revolution, that defeated fascism.the end of a country that people around the world respect and admire the end of a country that all of us call home.And we built this home together.It’s only become Great Britain because of the greatness of Scotland.Because of the thinkers, writers, artists, leaders, soldiers, inventors who have made this country what it is.It’s Alexander Fleming and David Hume;J.K.Rowling and Andy Murray and all the millions of people who have played their part in this extraordinary success story, the Scots who led the charge on pensions and the NHS and on social justice.We did all this together.For the people of Scotland to walk away now would be like painstakingly building a home – and then walking out the door and throwing away the keys.So I would say to everyone voting on Thursday, please remember.This isn’t just any old country.This is the United Kingdom.This is our country.And you know what makes us truly great?

It’s not our economic might or military prowess – it’s our values.British values.Fairness.Freedom.Justice.The values that say wherever you are, whoever you are, your life has dignity and worth.The values that say we don’t walk on by when people are sick, that we don’t ask for your credit card in the hospital, that we don’t turn our backs when you get old and frail.that we don’t turn a blind eye or a cold heart to people around the world who are desperate and crying out for help.This is what Britain means.This is what makes us the greatest country on earth.And it’s why millions of us could not bear to see that country ending – for good, for ever – on Friday.Now I know that there are many people across Scotland who are planning to vote Yes.I understand why this might sound appealing.It’s the promise of something different.I also know that the people who are running the Yes campaign are painting a picture of a

Scotland that is better in every way, and they can be good at painting that picture.But when something looks too good to be true – that’s usually because it is.And it is my duty to be clear about the likely consequences of a Yes Vote.Independence would not be a trial separation, it would be a painful divorce.And as Prime Minister I have to tell you what that would mean.It would mean the armed forces we have built up together over centuries being split up forever.It would mean our pension funds sliced up – at some cost.It would mean the borders we have would become international and may no longer be so easily crossed.It would mean the automatic support that you currently get from British embassies when you’re travelling around the world would come to an end.It would mean over half of Scottish mortgages suddenly, from one day to the next, being provided by banks in a foreign country.It would mean that interest rates in Scotland are no longer set by the Bank of England – with the stability and security that promises.It would meanno country is.Of course we must constantly change and improve people’s lives.No-one is content while there are still children living in poverty.No-one is content while there are people struggling, and young people not reaching their potential.Yes, every political party is different.But we are all of us – Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Nationalists – on a constant mission to change our country for the better.The question is: how do you get that change? For me it’s simple.You don’t get the change you want by ripping your country apart.You don’t get change by undermining your economy and damaging your businesses and diminishing your place in the world.But you can get real, concrete change on Thursday: if you vote No.'Business as usual’ is not on the ballot paper.The status quo is gone.This campaign has swept it away.There is no going back to the way things were.A vote for No means real change and we have spelled that change out in practical terms, with a plan and a process.If we get a No vote on Thursday, that will trigger a major, unprecedented programme of devolution with additional powers for the Scottish Parliament.Major new powers over tax, spending and welfare services.We have agreed a timetable for that stronger Scottish Parliament: a time-table to bring in the new powers that will go ahead if there is a No vote...a White Paper by November, put into draft legislation by January.This is a timetable that is now agreed by all the main political parties and set in stone and I am prepared to work with all the main parties to deliver this during 2015.So a No vote actually means faster, fairer, safer and better change.And this is a vital point: Scotland is not an observer in the affairs of this country.Scotland is shaping and changing the United Kingdom for the better – more so today than at any point in the last three hundred years and will continue to help shape the constitution of our country.And Scottish people can enjoy the additional powers its Parliament gives without losing the UK pension, the UK pound or the UK passport.Real change is Scotland’s for the taking.The power to set your own course and make your own decisions with the security of being in the UK without the risks of going it alone.It’s the best of both worlds.Scotland’s identity is already strong strong Scottish culture, strong Scottish arts, a strong Church of Scotland and in the last 15 years you have built a strong Scottish Parliament not a fleeting institution but a permanent one.So the vote on Thursday is not about whether Scotland is a nation.Scotland is a proud, strong, successful nation.The vote on Thursday is about two competing visions for Scotland’s future.The Nationalists’ vision of narrowing down, going it alone, breaking all ties with the UK.Or the patriotic vision of a strong Scottish nation allied to the rest of the United Kingdom with its own stronger Scottish Parliament at its heart and with the benefits of working together in the UK on jobs, pensions, healthcare funding, the currency, interest rates.It really is the best of both worlds and it’s the best way to get real change and secure a better future for your children and grandchildren.And speaking of family – that is quite simply how I feel about this.We are a family.The United Kingdom is not one nation.We are four nations in a single country.That can be difficult but it is wonderful.Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland different nations, with individual identities competing with each other even at times enraging each other while still being so much stronger together.We are a family of nations.Why should the next generation of that family be forced to choose whether to identify only with Edinburgh or only with London choose which embassy they want to go to when they are in trouble abroad or pack their passport when they're going to see friends and loved ones.A family is not a compromise, or a second best, it is a magical identity, that makes us more together than we can ever be apart so please – do not break this family apart.In human relations it’s almost never a good thing to turn away from each other, put up walls, score new lines on the map.Why would we take one Great Britain and turn it into separate smaller nations?

What is that an answer to?

How will that help the ambitious young people who want to make their mark on the world or the pensioner who just wants security or the family relying on jobs make in the UK?

Let no-one fool you that ‘Yes’ is a positive vision.It's about dividing people, closing doors, making foreigners of our friends and family.This isn’t an optimistic vision.The optimistic vision is of our family of nations staying together there for each other in the hard times coming through to better times.We’ve just pulled through a great recession together.We’re moving forward together.The road has been long but it is finally leading upwards and that’s why I ask you to vote No to walking away.Vote No – and you are voting for a bigger and broader and better future for Scotland and you are investing in the future for your children and grandchildren.So this is our message to the people of Scotland: We want you to stay.Head and heart and soul, we want you to stay.Please don’t mix up the temporary and the permanent.Don’t think: “I’m frustrated with politics right now, so I’ll walk out the door and never come back.”

If you don’t like me – I won’t be here forever.If you don’t like this Government – it won’t last forever.But if you leave the UK – that will be forever.Yes, the different parts of the UK don’t always see eye-to-eye.Yes, we need change – and we will deliver it but to get that change, to get a brighter future, we don’t need to tear our country apart.In two days, this long campaign will be at an end.And as you stand in the stillness of the polling booth, I hope you will ask yourself this.Will my family and I truly be better off by going it alone? Will we really be more safe and secure?

Do I really want to turn my back on the rest of Britain, and why is it that so many people across the world are asking: why would Scotland want to do that? Why?

And if you don’t know the answer to these questions – then vote No.At the end of the day, all the arguments of this campaign can be reduced to a single fact: we are better together.So as you reach your final decision, please don’t let anyone tell you that you can’t be a proud Scot and a proud Brit.Don’t lose faith in what this country is – and what we can be.Don’t forget what a great United Kingdom you are part of.Don't turn your backs on what is the best family of nations in the world and the best hope for your family in this world.So please, from all of us: Vote to stick together, vote to stay, vote to save our United Kingdom.

第四篇：蘇格蘭公投失敗分析

蘇格蘭，留了下來!或許是英國首相卡梅倫的泣淚挽留起了作用，一夜計票之后，這一次聲勢浩大的“分手公投”，蘇格蘭還是留在了聯合王國。

公投前夕，民調顯示統獨兩派民意十分接近，這令英國政府出了一身冷汗。“盡管同意公投，但其實無論是英國政府還是蘇格蘭人，都沒有對最終分手做好準備。”社科院歐洲研究所研究院、社會文化研究室主任田德文說道。

在此前的多次民調之中，反對蘇格蘭獨立的人群比例都占優。田德文指出，此次英國保守黨和自民黨聯合政府準予蘇格蘭地區進行獨立公投，其實本就是想在民意占優的情況下，給蘇格蘭不斷提高自治程度的趨勢做一個“了斷”，終止國家不斷走向松散的勢頭。

然而，英國政府沒有料到的是，在同意公投之后，支持蘇格蘭獨立的比例不斷上升。

這和獨立一派近兩年來的大力宣傳有關，但也有另一個原因，即當民眾看到支持獨立的人逐漸增多、獨立有可能成真時，就會更加傾向于投票支持獨立。政治學中“沉默的螺旋效應”認為，人們與生俱來的有一種怕被主流群體孤立的恐懼，但是如果一個人感到自己的立場正在為公眾所接受，他就會變得更加勇于表達自己。

因此，即使不做分析只報道民調，媒體的意見也會對投票者產生影響。正是出于這一考慮，在公投前夕，英國各大媒體已經不再做民調報道。

盡管此前揪人心弦，但對于這次的公投結果，田德文并不感到意外。

【分析】

為何留下來?“不想折騰”

公投前統獨兩派的勢均力敵令英國政府倍感焦慮。

英國首相卡梅倫坦言對蘇格蘭獨立公投的前景感到“緊張”，乃至在講演過程中數次哽咽。就連一直說獨立與否是“蘇格蘭人民自己的事”的伊麗莎白二世女王，也在公投前希望蘇格蘭人“好好考慮一下”。

人們選擇留下來，最決定性的原因是“不想折騰”，田德文認為，成立一個新國家未來將面臨太多的不確定性，而在不確定的情況下，選擇維持現狀就是一個更加穩妥的選擇。

還有一個原因是，此次公投的主體是蘇格蘭居民，但并非全是蘇格蘭人，里面還有不少英格蘭人以及來自英國其他地方的人，此外還有歐盟國家的居民。

根據公投約定，居住在蘇格蘭，年齡在16歲之上的英國公民和歐盟公民都有資格投票。蘇格蘭圣安德魯斯大學的波蘭學者托馬什·卡姆塞拉就是投票者之一。他對新京報記者表示，“每一項大的政治變革，都會帶有巨大的不確定性，也不可避免地帶來一段時期的不穩定，尤其是這么一個500萬人口的地區要獨立，很多事情可能會向完全錯誤的方向發展。”因此，經歷過東歐劇變的他，投了反對票。

公投之后，分離主義會偃旗息鼓嗎?

根據此前英國政府和蘇格蘭達成的協議，公投結果如果是選擇留下來，那么至少在相當長的一段時期內，蘇格蘭獨立問題將不會再被提上日程。

“留下來對英國政治的影響不大”，“但是對分離主義是一個重創”，田德文指出。“當然蘇格蘭分離主義不會絕跡，仍然會繼續存在和發展，但蘇格蘭短期內不會再面臨分出去的問題了。接下來的問題是英國政府和蘇格蘭就如何自治、自治到什么程度的討論。”

此外，蘇格蘭還面臨著分離派和統一派和解的問題，但是“這個問題并不是很嚴重。”田德文說到，在英國的語境下，分離與否對普通百姓的生活影響，比我們想象的要小。

公投對英國政府有何影響?

如果蘇格蘭通過公投獨立出去了，田德文認為，卡梅倫的政治生涯，甚至整個保守黨在英國政壇，都將面臨毀滅性打擊。留下來，對于英國政府的影響將會小很多。

但即便如此，《衛報》指出，公投已經改變了一些事情。卡梅倫所在的保守黨，“面臨非常嚴重的麻煩。”《衛報》評述到，保守黨面臨的問題不僅僅在蘇格蘭，如果他們不作出重大改變，那么想贏得下一屆的大選，堪憂。

英國政府會如何安撫蘇格蘭?

目前，蘇格蘭已經擁有了較英格蘭等地更大的自治權。此前，英國主要政黨都表示，即使留下來，也不贊成再給蘇格蘭更多的自治權。然而在公投前夕，統獨雙方民意的接近，令英國政府恐慌。為了拉攏民意，英國政府臨時推出一系列“投票紅包”：9月7日，英國財政大臣奧斯本表示，英國議會三大主要正政黨一致同意：如果蘇格蘭留在英國，將會獲得更大自主權，包括稅收、開支和社會福利。

但田德文認為，這種策略并不能稱之為高明。“這就變成了會哭的孩子有奶吃。”田德文說到，做出這種表態，會讓同樣追求更多自治權的威爾士和北愛爾蘭感到不滿。長遠看來，即便英國僥幸逃過此次公投這一劫，英國各地的“獨立派”也勢必得寸進尺。

“如果這次通過公投，蘇格蘭真的獨立了，對于歐洲和全世界的分離主義都是一種鼓勵。”田德文說到，目前世界上完全沒有分離主義問題的國家并不是很多，尤其是大國，國內幾乎都有不同程度的這種困擾。而這一次的結果，對于分離主義則是一個重創。

第五篇：卡梅倫在蘇格蘭公投結果公布后演講

The people of Scotland have spoken.It is a clear result.They have kept our country of four nations together.Like millions of other people, I am delighted。

蘇格蘭人民做出了選擇。這是一個清晰的結果。他們選擇繼續一起組成我們的國家。和數百萬人民一樣，我非常高興。

As I said during the campaign, it would have broken my heart to see our United Kingdom come to an end。

正如我在活動中所說，如果看到英國走到了盡頭，我的心將會破碎。

And I know that sentiment was shared by people, not just across our country, but also around the world because of what we’ve achieved together in the past and what we can do together in the future。

我知道，不僅是我們國家的人民，全世界的人民都在分享這份喜悅 – 這是因為我們在過去所取得的成就，以及我們能夠共同創造的未來。

So now it is time for our United Kingdom to come together, and to move forward。

所以，現在是英國團結起來、共同向前的時刻。

A vital part of that will be a balanced settlement – fair to people in Scotland and importantly to everyone in England, Wales and Northern Ireland as well。

我們將有一個更公平的體系 – 不但對蘇格蘭人民更公平，重要的是，將對英格蘭、威爾士、北愛爾蘭人民也同樣公平。

Let us first remember why we had this debate – and why it was right to do so。

讓我們首先記住為什么我們會有這次的爭論，以及為什么這樣做是對的。

The Scottish National Party was elected in Scotland in 2011 and promised a referendum on independence。

蘇格蘭民族黨于2011年在蘇格蘭獲選，并誓言獨立公投。

We could have blocked that, we could have put it off but just as with other big issues, it was right to takethe big decision。

我們本可以阻止公投，也可以將其推遲——但這就像其他問題一樣，接受重大的決定才是正確的，而不是進行躲避。

I am a passionate believer in our United Kingdom – I wanted more than anything for our United Kingdom to stay together。

我對我們的國家擁有強烈的信任感 —— 對我來說沒有什么比我們國家團結在一起更重要了。

But I am also a democrat.And it was right that we respected the SNP’s majority in Holyrood and gave the Scottish people their right to have their say。

但我對我們的國家擁有強烈的信任感 —— 對我來說沒有什么比我們國家團結在一起更重要了。

Let us also remember why it was right to ask the definitive question, Yes or No。

讓我們記住為什么提出決定性的問題“去”或者“留”是對的。

Because now the debate has been settled for a generation or as Alex Salmond has said, perhaps for a lifetime。

因為這個爭論已經存在了一代– 或者像 Alex Salmond 所說的，也許是一生。

So there can be no disputes, no re-runs – we have heard the settled will of the Scottish people。

因此結論無可爭議，也不會重來，我們已經聽到了蘇格蘭人民的堅定愿望。

Scotland voted for a stronger Scottish Parliament backed by the strength and security of the United Kingdom and I want to congratulate the No campaign for that – for showing people that our nations really are better together。

蘇格蘭選出了一個由英國的強大和安全作為支持的蘇格蘭議會。我想對支持團結的人民表示感謝——感謝你們展示出我們國家團結起來才能更好的事實。

I also want to pay tribute to Yes Scotland for a well-fought campaign and to say to all those who did vote for independence: ‘we hear you’。

我也要對支持獨立的人們表示敬意——你們進行了一場很精彩的活動。我要對投票支持獨立的人們說，“我們聽到了你們的聲音”。

We now have a chance – a great opportunity – to change the way the British people are governed, and change it for the better。

我們現在有一個機會，一個很好的機會，來改變英國的管理方式，我們為了更好而改變。

Political leaders on all sides of the debate now bear a heavy responsibility to come together and work constructively to advance the interests of people in Scotland, as well as those in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, for each and every citizen of our United Kingdom。

所有黨派的政治領導人現在全部身負重任，我們要一起為蘇格蘭、英格蘭、威爾士、北愛爾蘭人民的利益而努力，為我們每一個英國公民而努力。

To those in Scotland sceptical of the constitutional promises that were made, let me say this we have delivered on devolution under this Government, and we will do so again in the next Parliament。

對這些承諾表示懷疑的蘇格蘭人民，請聽我說：我們在本屆政府進行了權力下放，我們還會在下屆議會做同樣的事。

The three pro-union parties have made commitments, clear commitments, on further powers for the Scottish Parliament。

支持統一的三黨聯合做出承諾，給蘇格蘭議會更多的權力。

We will ensure that those commitments are honoured in full。

我們保證兌現承諾。

And I can announce today that Lord Smith of Kelvin – who so successfully led Glasgow’s Commonwealth Games – has agreed to oversee the process to take forward the devolution commitments with powers over tax, spending and welfare all agreed by November and draft legislation published by January。

我今天也宣布，2014格拉斯哥英聯邦運動會主席史密斯?凱爾文男爵已經同意監督權力下放的進程，包括在11月前在稅務、支出、福利問題達成一致，并于來年1月公開草案。

Just as the people of Scotland will have more power over their affairs, so it follows that the people of England, Wales and Northern Ireland must have a bigger say over theirs。

跟蘇格蘭人民將會擁有更多自治權一樣，英格蘭、威爾士和北愛爾蘭的人民也將就他們所關心的事宜有更多話語權。

The rights of these voters need to be respected, preserved and enhanced。

投票者的權益需要被尊重、保護和加強。

It is absolutely right that a new and fair settlement for Scotland should be accompanied by a new and fair settlement that applies to all parts of our United Kingdom。

在蘇格蘭擁有一個全新的、更公平的體系的同時，英國所有地區都應該有一個全新的、更公平的體系。

In Wales, there are proposals to give the Welsh Government and Assembly more powers。

在威爾士，也有給威爾士政府和大會更多權力的提案。

And I want Wales to be at the heart of the debate on how to make our United Kingdom work for all our nations。

我希望威爾士能夠成為就“如何讓所有地區對我們國家都滿意”展開的討論的重點。

In Northern Ireland, we must work to ensure that the devolved institutions function effectively。

在北愛爾蘭，我們必須努力確保移交的機構有效運轉。

But I have long believed that a crucial part missing from this national discussion is England。

很久以來我一直認為，這場全國范圍的大討論中缺失了一個關鍵部分，那就是英格蘭。

We have heard the voice of Scotland-and now the millions of voices of England must also be heard。

我們已經聽到了蘇格蘭的聲音——而現在，數百萬英格蘭人民的聲音也不容忽視。

The question of English votes for English laws – the so-called West Lothian question –requires a decisive answer。

有關英格蘭人民為英格蘭法律投票的問題——即所謂的“西洛錫安問題”——需要得到一個決定性的回答。

So, just as Scotland will vote separately in the Scottish Parliament on their issues of tax, spending and welfare so too England, as well as Wales and Northern Ireland, should be able to vote on these issues and all this must take place in tandem with, and at the same pace as, the settlement for Scotland。

所以，正如蘇格蘭將單獨在蘇格蘭議會中就自身的稅務、開支和福利進行投票，英格蘭、以及威爾士和北愛爾蘭，也應當能夠就這些事務進行投票——所有這些都應當與解決蘇格蘭問題同時、同步進行。

I hope this is going to take place on a cross-party basis。

我希望這將能夠在跨黨派的基礎上進行。

I have asked William Hague to draw up these plans。

我已要求威廉?黑格起草這些方案。

We will set up a Cabinet Committee right away and proposals will also be ready to the same timetable。

我們即將設立一個內閣委員會，而相關的提議也會按這一時間表準備完畢。

I hope the Labour Party and other parties will contribute。

我希望工黨和其他政黨也將做出貢獻。

It is also important we have wider civic engagement about how to improve governance in our United Kingdom, including how to empower our great cities.And we will say more about this in the coming days。

同等重要的是，在如何改善我們國家的管理上，我們獲得更廣泛的公民參與，其中包括如何讓我們的大城市獲得更多的授權——我們將在未來幾天就此做出更多闡述。

This referendum has been hard fought.It has stirred strong passions.It has electrified politics in Scotland, and caught the imagination of people across the whole of our United Kingdom。

此次公投來之不易。它掀起了民眾強烈的熱情，激發了蘇格蘭的政治活力，同時也讓整個英國人民都為之暢想。

It will be remembered as a powerful demonstration of the strength and vitality of our ancient democracy。

它有力地展現了我們古老民主制度的力量與活力，將會為世人所銘記。

Record numbers registered to vote and record numbers cast their vote。

登記投票的選民人數創下歷史新高；而實際投票人數同樣刷新了紀錄。

We should all be proud of that。

我們所有人都為此感到驕傲。

It has reminded us how fortunate we are that we are able to settle these vital issues at the ballot box, peacefully and calmly。

它提醒我們，我們是何等幸運，能夠以和平和冷靜的方式，通過投票箱來解決這些至關重要的問題。

Now we must look forward, and turn this into the moment when everyone – whichever way they voted – comes together to build that better, brighter future for our entire United Kingdom。

現在，我們必須向前看，并以此為契機，讓所有人——無論他們曾投票支持哪一方——團結起來，為我們整個英國創建更美好、更光明的未來。