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Economist經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人精品文章

Whopper to go 至尊漢堡，打包帶走

Will Burger King be gobbled up by private equity? 漢堡王是否會被私人股本吞并？

Sep 2nd 2010 | NEW YORK

SHARES in Burger King(BK)soared on September 1st on reports that the fast-food company was talking to several private-equity firms interested in buying it.How much beef was behind these stories was unclear.But lately the company famous for the slogan ―Have It Your Way‖ has certainly not been having it its own way.There may be arguments about whether BK or McDonald‘s serves the best fries, but there is no doubt which is more popular with stockmarket investors: the maker of the Big Mac has supersized its lead in the past two years.有報道披露，快餐企業(yè)漢堡王（BK）正在與數(shù)個有收購意向的私人股本接洽，9月1日，漢堡王的股值隨之飆升。這些報道究竟有多少真材實(shí)料不得而知。漢堡王的著名口號是―我選我味‖，但如今顯然它身不由己，心中五味雜陳。漢堡王和麥當(dāng)勞哪家薯條最好吃，食客們一直爭論不休，但股票投資人更喜歡哪家股票，卻一目了然：過去兩年里，巨無霸麥當(dāng)勞一直在擴(kuò)大自己的優(yōu)勢。

Recession has favoured McDonald‘s over BK, whose share price has fallen by half since the economy was flame-grilled in the summer of 2008.Shares in McDonald‘s have risen, reaching an all-time high in August.Same-store sales at BK have fallen for five successive quarters.金融危機(jī)卻更青睞漢堡王，自2008年經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷以來，其股票價格跌至原來的一半。而麥當(dāng)勞的股票不跌反漲，在8月又創(chuàng)下了歷史新高。漢堡王的同店銷售額連續(xù)五個季度下跌。

Why has McDonald‘s been eating BK‘s lunch? Among other things, BK has always had a higher proportion of sales to young men, who have been hit especially hard by the recession.McDonald‘s, by contrast, has for several years wooed women and older people with relatively healthy salads and drinkable coffee.BK has struggled to follow suit.At the same time, it has had to contend with angry shareholders, as the rising cost of beef and other ingredients has clobbered its profits.BK may also have cannibalised its existing sales by offering value meals that were a bit too irresistible.為何麥當(dāng)勞在與漢堡王的競爭中占得先機(jī)？別的不談，漢堡王的顧客更多的是年輕人，而年輕人受金融危機(jī)打擊尤其嚴(yán)重。相對地，麥當(dāng)勞近年來一直以相對健康的沙拉和可口的咖啡，吸引女性和中老年人。漢堡王一直難以模仿。與此同時，隨著牛肉等原材料的成本上漲，利潤一跌再跌，漢堡王又不得不去對付那些憤怒的股東。漢堡王的套餐太過誘人，可能也影響了其他產(chǎn)品的銷量。

BK is used to changes in ownership.It went from being part of Pillsbury, a food company, to Grand Metropolitan, a British conglomerate, then to Diageo, a drinks giant.In 2002 it was sold to a group of private-equity investors: TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs.They did a fair job, improving sales with better marketing.They also helped turn around the most troubled of the franchisees who operate most BK restaurants.In 2006 BK floated its shares again.Its bosses may hope that going private once more will protect them from short-term stockmarket pressures while they ponder how to beat McDonald‘s.漢堡王此前多次易主，已經(jīng)習(xí)以為常了。它曾是皮爾斯百利食品公司的一部分，后轉(zhuǎn)入英國大都會集團(tuán)，繼而轉(zhuǎn)投飲品巨頭帝亞吉?dú)W。2002年又被轉(zhuǎn)手賣給一批私人股本投資者：德克薩斯太平洋集團(tuán)（TPG），貝恩資本和高盛。他們經(jīng)營良好，利用優(yōu)秀市場策略增加了銷售。大部分漢堡王餐廳的運(yùn)營商當(dāng)時經(jīng)營不善，他們還助其扭虧為盈。2006年漢堡王再度上市。其老板可能希望再度私有化以規(guī)避短期股市壓力，為其爭取時間定策擊敗麥當(dāng)勞。

If BK does go private, it may be part of a trend in the private-equity industry—now that some of the bigger firms have rediscovered their appetite for deals—of gobbling up the companies they had taken public during the bubble years but which are now trading cheaply.TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs still own a sizeable stake in BK, despite listing it on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006.However, it seems that other private-equity firms are interested in buying it.If that happens, no doubt BK servers will appreciate the irony: the act of passing a company from one private-equity firm to another is known in the business as ―flipping‖.私人股本行業(yè)——如今一些大公司重新對收購有了興趣——吞并那些他們在經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫時代賣掉，現(xiàn)在十分廉價的公司，儼然已成一股大潮，如果漢堡王真的私有化，就將融入這股大潮之中。德克薩斯太平洋集團(tuán)（TPG），貝恩資本和高盛雖然2006年在紐約證券交易所已經(jīng)兜售了漢堡王，但他們?nèi)晕沼锌捎^的股份。然而，其他私人股本公司似乎也有意收購。要是真被他們收購，無疑漢堡王的服務(wù)生都能領(lǐng)會其中的諷刺：在私人股本公司中被倒賣，在做漢堡這行叫―翻面‖。

本主題由 shiyi18 于 2010-11-12 13:16 移動評分

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Down the slipway下水

―Quantitative easing‖ is unloved and unappreciated—but it is working ―量化寬松‖不受待見，但是有效 Nov 4th 2010 | Washington, dc

EVEN before the Federal Reserve unveiled its second round of quantitative easing(QE)on November 3rd, critics had already denounced it as ineffectual or an invitation to inflation.It cannot be both and it may not be either.美聯(lián)儲的第二輪量化寬松政策在11月3日公布之前便已受到了各方抨擊，有人說它不會起效，也有人說這樣會導(dǎo)致通脹。這兩者根本不可能同時發(fā)生，甚至一個都不會發(fā)生。The announcement of ―QE2‖ was hardly breathtaking.The Fed said it will buy $600 billion of Treasuries between now and next June, at about $75 billion a month, although it also said it could adjust the amount and timing if need be.That was about what markets expected but far less than the $1.75 trillion of debt it bought between early 2009 and early 2010 in its first round of QE.Yet QE2 seems already to have exceeded the low expectations it has aroused.Since Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, hinted at it at Jackson Hole on August 27th, markets have all done exactly what they should(see chart).第二輪量化寬松并沒有驚人之處。美聯(lián)儲稱，從現(xiàn)在起到明年6月，它將購買6 000億美元美國國債，相當(dāng)于每月購買750億美元，但具體數(shù)字可能隨情況進(jìn)行調(diào)整。這一規(guī)模與市場預(yù)期相當(dāng)，遠(yuǎn)低于2009年初至2010年初第一輪量化寬松（總共購買債務(wù)1.75萬億美元）。但第二輪量化寬松似乎已經(jīng)超過了它所引起的低預(yù)期。自美聯(lián)儲主席本?伯南克于8月27日在杰克森霍爾（Jackson Hole）暗示這一計劃以來，市場對此已有了充分的反映（見圖）。

Under QE the Fed buys long-term bonds with newly created money.This lowers long-term yields and chases investors into riskier, alternative investments.The real yield on ten-year, inflation-indexed Treasury bonds has fallen from 1.05% to 0.5%, a result of relatively flat nominal yields and a rise in expected inflation.The yield on their five-year cousins is negative(see Buttonwood).Share prices are up by 14% in the same period.Lower yields make the dollar less appealing: it has duly fallen by 5% against the Japanese yen, by 9% against the euro and by 5% on a trade-weighted basis.―You can declare QE to be a success already,‖ says one hedge-fund economist.―Whether this translates into real activity remains a question-mark.But the question of whether the mechanism would work has been answered.‖

在量化寬松計劃中，美聯(lián)儲將通過發(fā)行新鈔買入長期債券。這壓低了后者的收益率，使投資者轉(zhuǎn)向風(fēng)險更高的替代投資品。在名義收益率相對較平和預(yù)期通脹的雙重作用下，10年期通脹指數(shù)化美國國債真實(shí)收益率從1.05%下降至0.5%。五年期品種則已呈現(xiàn)負(fù)利率（見本期Bottonwood）。同期，股票市場上漲了14%。收益率的下降使美元失去了吸引力：美元對日元下跌了5%，對歐元下跌了9%，從貿(mào)易加權(quán)角度看，則下跌了5%。一位對沖基金經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說：―可以說，量化寬松已經(jīng)獲得了成功。它能不能轉(zhuǎn)化為實(shí)際行動還不好說。但其機(jī)制是否起作用已經(jīng)毋庸置疑了?！?/p>

With a bit of a lag, these easier financial conditions are supposed to boost growth through three channels.First, lower real yields spur borrowing and investment.This channel is bunged up: many households cannot borrow because their homes have fallen in value and because banks are less willing to lend.But the remaining two channels remain open.Higher share prices have raised household wealth by some $1.4 trillion, which will spur some spending.And the lower dollar should help trade.American factory purchasing managers reported a sharp jump in export orders in October and a drop in imports.一般認(rèn)為，寬松的金融環(huán)境將通過三個渠道提振經(jīng)濟(jì)增長（可能存在時滯）。第一，真實(shí)收益率下降能夠刺激借貸與投資。這一渠道目前已經(jīng)失去了作用：許多家庭因為房價下跌和銀行不愿意借貸而無法得到貸款。但剩下的兩個渠道仍然暢通。股價上漲已使家庭財富增加了1.4萬億美元，這將刺激支出。美元下跌則應(yīng)該有利于貿(mào)易。美國工廠采購經(jīng)理報告顯示，10月份出口訂單出現(xiàn)了大幅增長，進(jìn)口則有所下降。

Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, reckons that the Fed will eventually buy $1.5 trillion of debt under QE2, and that this will raise growth next year to 3.6% from 3.3% without QE.That‘s not exactly overwhelming: the firm thinks the Fed would have to buy $5.25 trillion of bonds to achieve the equivalent of a –4% federal-funds rate, which is what the economy needs.The Fed will not do that for fear of unknown consequences, among them the response of Congress‘s newly empowered Republicans.In a Bloomberg poll, 60% of self-identified tea-party supporters favoured overhauling or abolishing the Fed.咨詢公司Macroeconomic Advisers認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲在第二輪量化寬松中將總共購買1.5萬億美元債務(wù)，使明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率從3.3%（如果不實(shí)行量化寬松的話）提高到3.6%。這還不是最令人震驚的：該公司還認(rèn)為，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)需要聯(lián)邦基金利率下降到-4%的水平，要達(dá)到這一效果，美聯(lián)儲必須購買5.25萬億美元債券才行。要美聯(lián)儲拋出如此大手筆是不可能的，因為它害怕因此導(dǎo)致不可預(yù)料的后果，比如引起最近在國會中重掌大權(quán)的共和黨人的激烈反應(yīng)。彭博社（Bloomberg）的調(diào)查顯示，60%自稱茶黨支持者的人贊成改組甚至取消美聯(lián)儲。

Could QE work too well and drive inflation expectations to dangerous levels? ―The odds aren‘t zero,‖ says Don Kohn, a former Fed vice-chairman, but they‘re small.There‘s more risk that expectations could rise once credit loosens up and spending accelerates.That, however, would be a signal that the Fed has succeeded;it can then tighten policy.量化寬松會過猶不及、將通脹預(yù)期推高到危險水平嗎？―并非不可能?！懊缆?lián)儲副主席鄧?考恩（Don Kohn）說，但可能性很小。更大的風(fēng)險是通脹預(yù)期在信貸放松和支出增速之后抬頭。但這正是美聯(lián)儲成功的信號，屆時它已經(jīng)可以采取緊縮措施了。

Other countries complain that QE is merely bringing them overvalued currencies and bubbly asset markets by pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere.But that may be unavoidable given their divergent growth paths.Both India and Australia raised interest rates this week despite rising currencies.其他國家抱怨量化寬松的唯一作用是，將美國投資者驅(qū)向其他國家尋找高收益，是當(dāng)?shù)刎泿派挡a(chǎn)生資產(chǎn)泡沫。但這是無論如何都不能避免的事情，因為各個國家的增長路徑各不同。印度和澳大利亞本周均在本國貨幣升值的情況下提高了利率。

A damaging round of beggar-thy-neighbour currency interventions cannot be ruled out.But the Bank of Japan, after intervening directly to weaken the yen in September, has struck upon a more benign response.It had been scheduled to release details of its own QE at a regular policy meeting in mid-November but moved the date forward to this week.Analysts suspect this was to counteract upward pressure on the yen because of the Fed‘s move.If central banks all print money in unison, and don‘t mop up excess liquidity, then the result could be a worldwide monetary fillip.QE‘s benefits should not be over-egged.Nor should they be dismissed.不能排除發(fā)生一種危險情況，那就是各國競相采取以鄰為壑的貨幣市場干預(yù)手段。日本銀行在9月就曾經(jīng)直接干預(yù)外匯市場使日元貶值，但這一回，日本銀行的反應(yīng)較為溫和。原定11月中旬政策例會上宣布的日本量化寬松計劃將提前至本周。分析師認(rèn)為日本央行此舉是為了緩和美聯(lián)儲動作給日元帶來的升值壓力。如果各國央行一起開動印鈔機(jī)，而不顧流動性過剩的后果，那么結(jié)果將是全球貨幣刺激。沒有必要過分強(qiáng)調(diào)量化寬松的好處，但也不應(yīng)該刻意貶低。

Opening stand 登場

Luck may play a big role in launching successful careers 上佳的運(yùn)氣是成功職業(yè)開端的一半

Nov 18th 2010

IN CRICKET batsmen often need a slice of luck to build a decent innings.Might that be true of cricketers‘ careers in general, and even of other jobs? In an IMF working paper Shekhar Aiyar and Rodney Ramcharan suggest that it is lucky for international cricketers to play their debut Test(international)match at home.在板球比賽中，擊球手通常需要點(diǎn)運(yùn)氣才能打出不錯的擊球局。所有板球選手都是這樣嗎？其他職業(yè)也是如此嗎？在一篇IMF工作論文中，Shekhar Aiyar和Rodney Ramcharan提出，就（國際）對抗賽（Test）而言，能在主場上演職業(yè)生涯首秀對于板球選手來說是件幸事。

Playing at home means familiar pitches and climatic conditions, and a more supportive crowd(just ask the English cricketers whose series against Australia starts in Brisbane on November 25th).Sifting through the data on 790 cricketers who made their Test debuts between 1950 and 1985, the authors find that playing at home rather than away raises the average number of runs scored in their first series by 33% and reduces the runs that a bowler concedes by 18%.主場作戰(zhàn)意為著更熟悉的場地和天氣狀況，以及更高的觀眾支持率（關(guān)于這一點(diǎn)，11月25日做客布里斯班與澳大利亞進(jìn)行系列賽的英格蘭板球隊隊員將有切身體會）。通過分析1950至1985年間790位板球手在對抗賽處子秀上的表現(xiàn)，兩位作者發(fā)現(xiàn)，主場作戰(zhàn)平均能將處子系列賽得分―跑‖次數(shù)較客場提高33%，將被對方投手封殺的―跑‖的次數(shù)降低18%。

This would not be luck, of course, if team selectors deliberately give home debuts to better players.But first starts are often the result of random events such as the injury or poor performance of existing team members.By using age as a proxy for ability(assuming that younger players who force their way into international sides tend to be more talented), the authors find that the distribution of cricketers‘ ages is almost identical for home and away debuts.當(dāng)然，如果各隊有意將主場處子秀的機(jī)會留給較為優(yōu)秀的選手的話，那么出現(xiàn)上述結(jié)果就并非運(yùn)氣了。但處子秀本身是由一系列隨機(jī)事件決定的：比如隊友受傷或是狀態(tài)低迷等。兩位作者將年齡作為能力的一個代表因素（假設(shè)選手成功登上國際賽場的年齡越低，則其水平就越優(yōu)秀），結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，板球選手主場處子秀年齡分布和客場沒有區(qū)別。

A strong debut seems to lead to a shinier career.Every additional ten runs scored in a debut series adds an extra five runs to a player‘s career average.The effects of initial success are similar for bowlers.One possibility is that a good start builds confidence and experience that boosts future performance.A bad start, in contrast, is not easily forgiven: selectors appear to discard potentially high-ability players who had the misfortune to debut abroad.強(qiáng)勢處子秀似乎意味著輝煌的職業(yè)生涯。系列賽處子秀上得分跑次數(shù)每增加10次，選手職業(yè)生涯平均得分跑次數(shù)就能增加5次。開門紅效應(yīng)對投手也適用。原因可能是成功的開端所帶來的信心和經(jīng)驗?zāi)軌虼碳みx手的未來表現(xiàn)。反之，如果處子秀演砸了，就可能留下持久的陰影：首秀是在客場，又沒能出彩，那么即使你很有潛質(zhì)，在后來的比賽中也可能得不到出場機(jī)會。

A good start may have a persistent, positive impact in other fields, too.That‘s especially likely if employers take things at face value and fail to discount the impact of other factors that might enable good performance—a boom in financial markets for a trader, let‘s imagine.良好的開端在其他領(lǐng)域也可能有持久的正面效應(yīng)。特別是，當(dāng)雇主只看表面結(jié)果而忽略其他可能帶來良好表現(xiàn)的因素時，開門紅效應(yīng)就尤為顯著。大牛市對于交易員的影響就是其中之一。

A rock, not a hard place 選石的，不選硬的

Boom time for miners in a resource-hungry region 資源饑渴地區(qū)的礦業(yè)繁榮

Nov 11th 2010 | Hong Kong

IT CAN sometimes feel as if bankers in Asia are shifting their focus backwards along the economic food chain.First they moved from manufacturing to property.Now it‘s the turn of rocks.有時候，銀行家在亞洲的一舉一動讓人感到他們是在逆經(jīng)濟(jì)食物鏈而動。他們先是將注意力從制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向房地產(chǎn)。現(xiàn)在則輪到了礦石。

In Hong Kong alone seven mining and natural-resources firms have gone public this year, raising HK$36 billion($4.6 billion)in the process.Another 13 listed in 2009, raising HK$58 billion, up from not very much the year before.A further 10-15 firms are due to list over the next year and the sums raised will almost certainly be bigger than before, thanks to Asia‘s appetite for raw materials and inexorably rising commodities prices.光是在香港，今年以來便已有7家礦產(chǎn)和自然資源公司上市，總?cè)谫Y額高達(dá)360億港幣。2009年全年共有13家礦產(chǎn)類公司在香港上市，融資580億港幣，較清淡的2008年有所增長。明年還有10~15家公司等著上市。由于亞洲對原材料的巨大需求和不斷上漲的商品價格，總?cè)谫Y額達(dá)到空前高度已是板上釘釘。

One of the more meteoric ascents has been that of Sino Prosper State Gold Resources Holdings, a Hong Kong-listed company which a year ago was barely more than a shell company.It had an agreement to buy what was thought to be a small mine in Inner Mongolia, along with five undeveloped tracts of land in a remote area of Heilongjiang, in China‘s north-eastern tip.The firm was valued on the Hong Kong stock exchange at HK$400m.Since then the price of gold has spiked, and the mine has been bought and turned out to be not so very small after all.Sino Prosper‘s valuation is currently HK$3.5 billion and it has become a beacon for other minerals firms.礦產(chǎn)類股票中火速躥升，其中中盈國金控股有限公司的表現(xiàn)尤其耀眼。這家香港上司公司一年前還是個皮包公司，手里握有一張協(xié)議，內(nèi)容據(jù)說是關(guān)于收購內(nèi)蒙古一家小型金礦和黑龍江省邊遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)五塊未開發(fā)地皮的，去年的市值為4億港幣。從那兒以后，金價開始飆漲，于是小金礦搖身一變成了大寶庫，中盈國金的市值目前已高達(dá)35億港幣，成了礦業(yè)股中的明星。

Hong Kong‘s Canadian Chamber of Commerce this week held an invitation-only conference on mining.It was packed with Canadian companies in search of capital either through a direct listing(difficult, given profitability requirements at the Hong Kong stock exchange)or a partial investment by a cash-laden, resource-hungry Chinese firm.Investors seemed less concerned by the risks of digging up minerals, more by potential political obstacles in the wake of the Canadian government‘s intervention to block BHP Billiton‘s hostile takeover of Potash Corporation.上周，眾多加拿大公司出席了一個由香港加拿大商會（Canadian Chamber of Commerce）舉辦的憑柬入場礦業(yè)會議，或是爭取直接上市（這比較困難，因為香港股票交易所對上市公司盈利能力要求較高），或是尋求手握重金又急切需要資源的中國企業(yè)作為部分投資人，以獲得資本。投資者們似乎不太擔(dān)心挖礦風(fēng)險，而是更加顧忌潛在的政治障礙——加拿大政府干預(yù)叫停了必和必拓（BHP Billiton）對Potash公司的敵意收購。

Enthusiasm for minerals firms is not found just in Hong Kong.There are stirrings in less likely places, too.The Mongolian stock exchange, located in a lovely old cinema in Ulan Bator, has been transformed into a meeting place for international bankers.Locally listed miners are booming.A tie-up between the Mongolian bourse and the London Stock Exchange is expected to be announced by the end of the month.并非只有香港出現(xiàn)了礦業(yè)公司狂熱。在某些意想不到的地方，礦業(yè)股也是熱火朝天。位于烏蘭巴托一座漂亮的老劇院內(nèi)蒙古證券交易所最近成了國際銀行家的聚會之地。本地的上市礦業(yè)公司非常火爆。蒙古證券交易所與倫敦證券交易所（London Stock Exchange）的合作預(yù)計將于本月末公布。

Only two large mines are currently being developed—gold and copper in Oyu Tolgoi, coal in Tavan Tolgoi—but there are numerous smaller mines throughout the country and 15 major deposits that are the source of serious discussions between global mining giants and the government, says Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt of TenGer, a bank holding company.Financiers are on the hunt for investment opportunities in other businesses, too.Mr Hutagt calls Mongolia a wolf economy, hungry and eager.Just like the bankers.目前蒙古只有兩個較大的礦處于開發(fā)中——Oyu Tolgoi的金銅伴生礦和Tavan Tolgoi的煤礦。但是，TenGer銀行控股公司的Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt透露，有傳言說蒙古政府正在就全國眾多小型礦和15個主要大礦與全球礦業(yè)巨頭進(jìn)行重要談判。除了礦產(chǎn)企業(yè)之外，金融家也在蒙古尋求著其他業(yè)務(wù)機(jī)會。Hutagt用―狼‖來形容蒙古經(jīng)濟(jì)，認(rèn)為它又饑餓又迫切。這倒是與銀行家頗為相似。America's budget deficit 美國的預(yù)算赤字

Speak softly and carry a big chainsaw 輕聲細(xì)語的德州電鋸

Sorting out America‘s fiscal mess is relatively simple.What‘s needed is political courage 欲解美國財政亂局何其簡單，政治勇氣足以

Nov 18th 2010

LAST week Asia, this week Europe: no wonder Barack Obama has been to so many foreign summits since his party took a pounding in the mid-term elections.With the prospect of gridlock at home, a president naturally turns abroad.Yet Mr Obama badly needs to show that he can still lead on domestic policy.He should start by cajoling Congress into an agreement to tackle America‘s ominous fiscal arithmetic.自從奧巴馬領(lǐng)軍的民主黨在中期選舉中身受重創(chuàng)后，他兩周內(nèi)接連出訪歐亞兩洲；因此頻繁出席境外峰會也就不稀奇了。既然國內(nèi)前景仍是一片僵局，那么總統(tǒng)先生轉(zhuǎn)戰(zhàn)國外也算是自然而然的事情。然而奧巴馬目前急需證明自己仍有能力引領(lǐng)國內(nèi)政局；鑒于目前美國的―預(yù)算數(shù)學(xué)題‖非常難解，他不妨從這里開始，但需要拉攏國會以便達(dá)成共識。

Conventional wisdom says such an agreement is impossible: the problem is too big, the politics too difficult.But it is wrong to suppose that the deficit is unfixable, as two proposals for fixing it have shown this month(see article).And even the politics may not be totally intractable.公眾的態(tài)度是這種共識無法形成：問題太嚴(yán)重，政見太復(fù)雜。不過認(rèn)為赤字問題無藥可救也是片面的，因為僅本月就已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了兩個應(yīng)對提案。甚至掌控政治問題也非難事。

A trillion-dollar trove 上萬億的聚寶盆

The scale of America‘s fiscal problem depends on how far ahead you look.Today‘s deficit, running at 9% of GDP, is huge.Federal debt held by the public has shot up to 62% of GDP, the highest it has been in over 50 years.But that is largely thanks to the economy‘s woes.If growth recovers, the hole left by years of serial tax-cutting and overspending can be plugged: you need to find spending cuts or tax increases equal only to 2% of GDP to stabilise federal debt by 2015.But look farther ahead and a much bigger gap appears, as an ageing population needs ever more pensions and health care.Such ―entitlements‖ will double the federal debt by 2027;and the number keeps on rising after then.The figures for state and local debt are scary too.美國財政問題的嚴(yán)重程度取決于預(yù)期時間的長短。目前巨額的赤字水平已經(jīng)達(dá)到了GDP的9%。拜美國的苦難經(jīng)濟(jì)所賜，社會需求造成的聯(lián)邦債務(wù)對GDP比例達(dá)到了62%，這是過去50多年來從未出現(xiàn)過的。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)增長，那么連續(xù)數(shù)年減稅政策和過度消費(fèi)導(dǎo)致的缺口就有可能得到彌補(bǔ)：如果希望在2015年使聯(lián)邦債務(wù)達(dá)到穩(wěn)定水平，僅需相當(dāng)于GDP2%的支出削減或者稅收增加就可以實(shí)現(xiàn)。但如果預(yù)測更長遠(yuǎn)的未來，那么人口老齡化會增高的養(yǎng)老金和健康保障計劃的需求，缺口就將變的更大。類似的―社保支出‖將會迫使聯(lián)邦債務(wù)在2027年翻倍；而且會越來越高。州債務(wù)和地方債務(wù)看起來同樣可怕。The solution should start with an agreement between Mr Obama and Congress on a target for a manageable level of publicly held federal debt: say, 60% of GDP by 2020.They should also agree on the broad balance between lower spending and higher taxes to achieve this.This newspaper believes that the lion‘s share of the adjustment should come on the spending side.Entitlements are at the root of the problem and need to be trimmed, and research has shown that although spending cuts weigh on growth in the short run, they hurt less than higher taxes.And in the long run later retirement and other reforms will expand the labour force and thus potential output, whereas higher taxes dull incentives to work and invest.解決問題的前提是奧巴馬必須同國會達(dá)成共識，目標(biāo)是將社會需求造成的美國政府債保持在可控的水平內(nèi)；比如2020年達(dá)到GDP的60%。同時還要在減少支出和增加稅收上形成一致意見，以便尋求二者之間的大體平衡。本刊認(rèn)為調(diào)整的重頭戲是在支出方面。社保支出是問題的根源，需要進(jìn)行削減；盡管研究表明削減支出在短期內(nèi)會影響到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，但對經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的傷害卻遠(yuǎn)不及稅收增加。從長期來看，延長退休年齡及其他改革舉措必將擴(kuò)張勞動力大軍，進(jìn)而增加潛在產(chǎn)出；但高稅收弱化了工作的激勵機(jī)制，同時使投資熱情也大大衰退。

Yet even to believers in small government, like this newspaper, there are good reasons for letting taxes take at least some of the strain.Politically, this will surely be the price of any bipartisan agreement.Economically, there is sensible room for manoeuvre without damaging growth.American taxes are relatively low after the reductions of recent years.In an ideal world the tax burden would be gradually shifted from income to consumption(including a carbon tax).But that is politically hard—and there is a much easier target for reform.本刊屬于篤信小政府的人，甚至對于所有這樣的人來說，都有充足的理由認(rèn)為稅收應(yīng)該分擔(dān)部分壓力。從政治角度上來說，兩黨取得的任何共識都要付出一定的代價；從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度上看，在不傷害經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的情況下還有一定的調(diào)整空間。經(jīng)過近些年的連續(xù)削減，美國的稅率水平已經(jīng)達(dá)到了相當(dāng)?shù)偷某潭?。在完美狀態(tài)下，稅收負(fù)擔(dān)應(yīng)該逐漸從收入領(lǐng)域轉(zhuǎn)移到消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域（包括煙塵排放稅）。不過這對政治是一個巨大的挑戰(zhàn)，畢竟還有很多容易解決的改革目標(biāo)。

America‘s tax system is riddled with exemptions, deductions and credits that feed an industry of advisers but sap economic energy.Simply scrapping these distortions—in other words, broadening the base of taxation without any new taxes—could bring in some $1 trillion a year.Even though some of this would have to go in lowering marginal rates, it is a little like finding money behind the sofa cushions.The tax system would be simpler, fairer and more efficient.All this means that America can sensibly aim for a balance between spending cuts and higher taxes similar to the benchmark set by Britain‘s coalition government.A ratio of 75:25 is about right.美國的稅收體系給稅收豁免、稅收扣減和信貸留了許多開口，這不僅養(yǎng)活了整個顧問行業(yè)，還消耗了經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體能量。每年僅僅為了沖抵這些差異（換而言之，沒有新稅種增加的情況下增加稅收基礎(chǔ)）就要耗費(fèi)一萬億美元。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)這個目的不得不降低邊際稅率，但多少有點(diǎn)兒像在沙發(fā)墊子后面尋找錢財。稅收體系將會更加簡單、公平和高效。所有這些意味著美國可以理智的在職出削減和提高稅收之間找到平衡，類似于英國聯(lián)合政府設(shè)定的基準(zhǔn)。75:25差不多就是正確的比例了。

There is legitimate concern that, done hastily, austerity could derail a weak recovery.But this strengthens the case for a credible deficit-reduction plan.By reassuring markets that America will control its debt, the government will have more scope to boost the economy in the short term if need be—for instance by temporarily extending the Bush tax cuts.這其中還有一些合理的擔(dān)憂：如果操之過急，限制消費(fèi)必將顛覆原本就很羸弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。這種憂慮讓人們主張削減赤字方案必須值得信賴。如果美國政府可以向市場證明自己仍然可以控制債務(wù)，那么在需要的時候仍有更大的余地去推動經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，比如繼續(xù)延長布什政府時期的稅務(wù)削減政策。

Mr Obama and the Republicans are brimming with ideas for freezing discretionary spending, which covers most government operations from defence to national parks.They have found common cause in attacking ―earmarks‖, the pet projects that lawmakers insert into bills.But discretionary outlays, including defence, are less than 40% of the total budget.Entitlements, in particular Social Security(pensions)and Medicare and Medicaid(health care for the elderly and the poor), represent the bulk of spending and even more of spending growth.奧巴馬和共和黨人都熱衷于凍結(jié)機(jī)動支出的理念，這涵蓋了從國防到國家公園的大部分政府部門。他們已經(jīng)將聲討―特定用途之處‖作為共同事業(yè)，這正是法律制定者們夢寐以求的計劃。問題在于包括國防在內(nèi)的機(jī)動支出僅占總預(yù)算的40%。社保支在支出中的權(quán)重很高，增長幅度也比較大；特別是社會保障（養(yǎng)老金）、醫(yī)療保險和醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助制度（針對老年人和貧困人群的健康保障計劃）。

On pensions, the solution is clear if unpopular: people will need to work longer.America should index the retirement age to longevity and make the benefit formula for upper-income workers less generous.The ceiling on the related payroll tax should be increased to cover 90% of earnings, from 86% now.養(yǎng)老金方面的應(yīng)對舉措可能不太受歡迎，但是卻非常明了：延長人們的工作年限。美國應(yīng)該根據(jù)壽命調(diào)整退休年齡系數(shù)，同時應(yīng)該調(diào)低高收入工人的福利。目前相關(guān)的工資稅應(yīng)稅上限是收入的86%，這個比例應(yīng)該增加到90%。

Health-care spending is a much tougher issue, because it is being fed by both the ageing of the population and rising per-person demand for services.Richer beneficiaries should pay more of their share of Medicare, while the generosity of the system should be kept in check by the independent panel set up under Mr Obama‘s health reform to monitor services and payments.The simplest way for the federal government to restrain Medicaid would be to end the current system of matching state spending and replace this with block grants, which would give the states an incentive to focus on cost-control.健康保障支出方面的問題要麻煩得多，因為人口老齡化現(xiàn)象和增高的人均服務(wù)需求共同促進(jìn)了這項支出的增長。富裕的受益者應(yīng)該為他們的醫(yī)療保險付出更多，同時保障體系的恩惠必須長期受都獨(dú)立委員會的監(jiān)察，該組織成立于奧巴馬的健康改革過程中，指責(zé)是對服務(wù)和各項支付進(jìn)行監(jiān)督。聯(lián)邦政府也有簡單易行的方法來限制醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助制度的開銷：取消各州相同的現(xiàn)行體系，代之以分類財政補(bǔ)貼，此舉可以激勵各州政府關(guān)注與支出控制。

Chainsaw you can believe in 電鋸絕對值得信賴

Devising a plan that reduces the deficit, and eventually the debt, to a manageable size is relatively easy.Getting politicians to agree to it is a different thing.The bitter divide between the parties means that politicians pay a high price for consorting with the enemy.So Democrats cling to entitlements, and Republicans live in fear of losing their next party nomination to a tea-party activist if they bend on taxes.Even the president‘s own bipartisan commission can‘t agree on what to do.設(shè)計方案來壓縮目前的赤字、并最終縮減債務(wù)，使其達(dá)到可控的水平是非常容易的。困難的事讓政客們同意這個方案。兩黨分歧之痛意味著政敵間的結(jié)交需要高昂的代價。因此民主黨人緊抓社保支出；如果共和黨人專注于稅收變革，就會終日擔(dān)心在下次黨內(nèi)選舉中敗給茶黨。即使總統(tǒng)的兩黨工作組也無法決定下一步的舉措。

But true leaders turn the hard into the possible.Two things should prompt Mr Obama.First, the politics of fiscal truth may be less awful than he imagines.Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both won second terms after trimming entitlements or raising taxes.Polls in other countries suggest that nowadays tough love can sell.Second, in the long term economics will tell: unless it changes course, America is heading for a bust.If Mr Obama lacks the guts even to start tackling the problem, then ever more Americans, this paper and even those foreign summiteers will get ever more frustrated with him.但真正的領(lǐng)袖可以勝任人所不能。奧巴馬面前有兩個提示：第一，財政真相政治后果應(yīng)該沒有他想象的那么恐怖，里根和克林頓就在削減社保計劃或提高稅收后謀得連任。其他國家的選舉也表明今時今日專制的愛同樣有市場。第二，從長遠(yuǎn)來看，除非美國可以改變發(fā)展方向，否則必然走向衰敗。如果奧巴馬連著手應(yīng)對問題的勇氣都沒有，那么更多的美國民眾、本刊和那些峰會的參與者對他將更加泄氣。Divided we fall 不合則亡

Britain and France need each other to continue as great(ish)powers

英國和法國要想繼續(xù)保持其全球大國（或準(zhǔn)大國）的地位，兩國就必須牢牢捆在一起

Nov 4th 2010 2010年11月4日

表1:防務(wù)能力的混合與重組

英國

法國

2009年國防預(yù)算

583億美元

639億美元

武裝部隊總?cè)藬?shù)

17.8萬人 25萬人

航空母艦

2艘

1艘

驅(qū)逐艦

6艘

11艘

護(hù)衛(wèi)艦

17艘

20艘

攻擊型潛艇

7艘

6艘

作戰(zhàn)飛機(jī)

300架

360架

武裝直升機(jī)

233架

246架

戰(zhàn)略導(dǎo)彈核潛艇

4艘

數(shù)據(jù)來源: ⅡSS；DASA/MOD：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人雜志社

THEY may not always see eye to eye, but when it comes to defence, the interests of France and Britain converge.The two countries are respectively the third and fourth biggest military spenders in the world.Both see themselves as global players, ready and willing to project expeditionary force.But fiscal austerity has threatened the ability of both to live up to those grandiose ambitions.Only by working much more closely together, they have concluded, can two medium-sized European countries hope to stay in the great-power game.Hence the 50-year defence and security co-operation treaty signed this week in London by David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy.法國和英國偶爾可能也會出現(xiàn)一些紛爭，但涉及到國防，他們的利益就無甚差別了。這兩國的軍事開支分別居世界第三和第四位。兩國都認(rèn)為自己是全球事務(wù)參與者，具有遠(yuǎn)距投送軍事力量的能力與意愿。但緊縮的財政已經(jīng)威脅到兩國實(shí)現(xiàn)上述宏大目標(biāo)的能力。這兩個歐洲大國已經(jīng)得出結(jié)論，要想繼續(xù)參與全球大國的博弈，他們只有進(jìn)行更加緊密地合作。正是有鑒于此，卡梅倫與薩科齊本周在倫敦簽訂了這項為期50年的防務(wù)與安全合作條約。

The main items in the pact are a combined joint expeditionary force and an agreement to operate aircraft-carrier strike groups using aircraft and escort vessels contributed by both countries.But much of the treaty deals with less glamorous equipment and capabilities.Training and maintenance for the new A400M transport aircraft that the two nations are buying will be pooled.Britain is keen to share its new A300-based aerial tankers, if a financial deal to do so can be reached.該條約的主要條款包括組建一支聯(lián)合遠(yuǎn)征部隊和一個聯(lián)合航母作戰(zhàn)群，艦載機(jī)與護(hù)航艦只由兩個國家分?jǐn)?。但條約的大量條款涉及的都是不那么引人注目的裝備與能力。這兩個國家都正在購買A400M型軍用運(yùn)輸機(jī)，這種新機(jī)型的培訓(xùn)與維護(hù)將聯(lián)合進(jìn)行。如果能夠達(dá)成資金分?jǐn)偟膮f(xié)議，英國是急切地想要兩國共享其新購進(jìn)的A300改型空中加油機(jī)。

The two countries will jointly develop nuclear-submarine technologies, satellite communications and maritime-mine countermeasures.The big defence industries of both will be encouraged to co-operate on the next generation of surveillance drones and assorted new missiles, with the aim of forging a single prime European contractor for ―complex weapons‖.兩國將聯(lián)合研發(fā)核潛艇技術(shù)，聯(lián)合發(fā)展衛(wèi)星通信和反水雷戰(zhàn)的能力。將鼓勵兩國的大型國防工業(yè)企業(yè)合作研發(fā)新一代的無人偵察機(jī)和各種新型導(dǎo)彈，目標(biāo)是要打造單一的―復(fù)雜武器系統(tǒng)‖歐洲總承包商。

Most dramatically, a separate treaty has been signed on nuclear co-operation.This is remarkable, given the different approaches that France and Britain have taken towards their nuclear deterrents(Britain depends heavily on American kit, while France‘s force de frappe is a supreme symbol of national sovereignty).With the blessing of the United States, Britain‘s Aldermaston research establishment will concentrate on developing technology, while its French counterpart at Valduc will carry out simulated warhead testing.最有戲劇性的是，兩國還簽訂了一個單獨(dú)的核合作條約?？紤]到英法兩國在構(gòu)建核威懾力量上的不同做法，這一點(diǎn)頗為引人注目。（英國的核武系統(tǒng)嚴(yán)重依賴美國提供的裝備，而法國的核攻擊力則是其國家主權(quán)的最高象征）。由于有美國盟友的幫助，英國的奧爾德瑪斯頓研究機(jī)構(gòu)可以專注于研發(fā)技術(shù)，而法國位于瓦爾杜克（Valduc）的核研究機(jī)構(gòu)就必須進(jìn)行核彈頭的模擬試驗。

Predictably, there was much harrumphing in Britain‘s jingoistic popular press.A few retired politicians were dragged out to reminisce about slights suffered at the hands of the perfidious Frogs.The reaction in France was more muted, perhaps because the agreement carefully avoids any of the visionary language about European architectures that excites French imaginations, but which many British Conservatives, such as the defence secretary, Liam Fox, viscerally loathe.可以預(yù)見，在支持強(qiáng)硬外交政策的英國大眾媒體上會出現(xiàn)一片不滿和反對之聲。還會拖出幾個退休賦閑的政客來追憶背信棄義的法國佬在過去給英國帶來的小小不快。法國的反應(yīng)則要溫和的多，原因也許是該協(xié)議小心翼翼地回避了對歐洲架構(gòu)的預(yù)見性表述。只要提起歐洲架構(gòu)就會激起法國人的想象力，但許多英國保守黨人，如國防部長利亞姆??？怂梗↙iam Fox）之流，就發(fā)自內(nèi)心地厭惡之。

In fact, most of the objections raised seem either ignorant or anachronistic.Even before France rejoined NATO‘s integrated military structure last year, British and French forces had frequently worked and fought together under the command of one or other country.With the exception of the Iraq controversy, the two have rarely found themselves on opposite sides during recent international crises.For example, Britain‘s defence secretary during the Falklands war, John Nott, revealed in his memoirs that France had been Britain‘s staunchest ally, providing information that helped to render the Exocet anti-ship missiles used by Argentina ineffective, and supplying Mirage and Super-Etendard fighters for British Harrier pilots to pit themselves against in training.事實(shí)上，大多數(shù)持反對觀點(diǎn)的人似乎要么是無知，要么就是落伍于時代。甚至在法國去年重返北約軍事一體化架構(gòu)之前，英法兩國的軍隊就已經(jīng)頻繁地在對方指揮下共同工作和作戰(zhàn)。除了伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭的論戰(zhàn)之外，兩國在最近出現(xiàn)的國際危機(jī)中很少出現(xiàn)對立。例如，英國在馬島戰(zhàn)爭期間的國防部長約翰?諾特（John Nott）就在他的回憶錄中透露，法國在這場沖突中是英國最堅定的盟友，法國提供的情報使阿根廷的飛魚反艦導(dǎo)彈收效甚微，法國還提供―幻影‖和―超軍旗‖式戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)供英國的鷂式戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)飛行員進(jìn)行對抗訓(xùn)練。

Difficulties could arise, however, over shared use of the two countries‘ aircraft carriers, if national priorities and policies do not coincide during future conflicts.One solution would be for Britain not to sell the second carrier it is currently building, which at present seems its likely fate, but to operate it on a timeshare basis with the French.That way it could be made available without caveats to whichever country needed it when its main ship was in refit(a three-year job required every seven years or so).Just don‘t call it Trafalgar.然而共用兩國的航母的話，在未來可能爆發(fā)的沖突中如果出現(xiàn)國家利益優(yōu)先和對外政策不相一致的情況，就可能會出現(xiàn)困難。一個解決辦法就是英國不賣第二艘在建的航母（目前看來它可能面臨胎死腹中的命運(yùn)），而是與法國分時共享這艘航母。這樣一來就可以在其航母整修期間（大約每航行七年左右要有三年時間進(jìn)行整修），哪個國家需要它都可以不受限制的進(jìn)行使用。但絕對不要把它命名為―特拉法爾加‖號。

The liquefaction of hardware 硬件熔解

The rise of the virtual computer 虛擬計算機(jī)興起

Nov 18th 2010

IMAGINE a personal computer that has two souls.One moment it is your work machine, complete with a set of corporate applications and tight security settings.Then it becomes an entertainment centre, allowing you to watch any video and download any program.想象一下，一臺個人電腦有兩個化身，一會是你的工作機(jī)器，配有一套企業(yè)應(yīng)用軟件和嚴(yán)密的安全設(shè)置，一會又變成了一個娛樂中心，準(zhǔn)許你隨心所欲看視頻，下程序。

Thanks to a process called ―virtualisation‖, such computers are now being created.Ever more processing power and clever software are allowing devices of all kinds to separate from their hardware vessels and move to new homes.If this process continues as some expect, it will change computing radically.And more than one IT company will have to rethink how it does business.多虧一種稱為―虛擬化‖的技術(shù)，這種電腦正被制造出來。處理能力日益強(qiáng)大，聰明軟件越來越多，正讓各種設(shè)備從所在的硬件容器中剝離出來，遷入新居。如若虛擬化進(jìn)程，像某些人所料那般持續(xù)下去，就將從根本上改變計算機(jī)運(yùn)作。而多家IT公司將不得不重新考慮，如何運(yùn)用該技術(shù)做生意。

Virtualisation dates back to the age of mainframe computers.To make better use of them they were sometimes split into smaller ―virtual machines‖, each of which could run its own operating system and application.But the approach took off only in recent years, when VMWare, a software firm, applied it to servers, the powerful computers that populate today‘s corporate data centres.VMWare and its main rivals, Citrix and Microsoft, have since developed all kinds of software tools to manage virtual machines—moving them between data centres, for example.虛擬化始于大型機(jī)時代。為優(yōu)化利用，大型機(jī)有時被分割成一些小型―虛擬機(jī)‖，每個虛擬機(jī)都能運(yùn)行自己的操作系統(tǒng)及應(yīng)用軟件。但此法近幾年突然風(fēng)行，當(dāng)時，一家軟件公司VMWare將其運(yùn)用到服務(wù)器上，正是這些功能強(qiáng)大的服務(wù)器，構(gòu)成了今天的企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)中心。VMWare及其主要對手Citrix和Microsoft，那時起就開發(fā)了各種虛擬機(jī)管理軟件工具，比如讓虛擬機(jī)在數(shù)據(jù)中心間遷移的軟件。

The success of server virtualisation has inspired IT firms and their customers to do the same thing with other types of hardware, such as devices to store data.Software now pools their capacity and allocates ―virtual disks‖ as needed.Going further, Dropbox, an online storage service, saves identical files only once.Even large files can take only seconds to upload if they already exist somewhere on one of these firms‘ disks.服務(wù)器虛擬化的成功，啟發(fā)IT公司及其顧客在其他類型的硬件（如數(shù)據(jù)存儲設(shè)備）上，做同樣的事?，F(xiàn)在，軟件可共用這些設(shè)備的存儲容量，并按需分配―虛擬磁盤‖。進(jìn)一步來說，一種網(wǎng)絡(luò)存儲服務(wù)Dropbox，同一份文件僅存一次。即便是大文件，只要已存在這些公司某個磁盤的某處，上傳也只需數(shù)秒。

The virtualisation of PCs is now under way.Many company computers can already work with applications that run on a central server.But start-ups are pushing the concept further.Desktone offers virtual desktops as an online service.NComputing, a maker of computer terminals, virtualises PCs so they can be shared by up to 30 users.It has already sold more than 2.5m devices, mostly to developing countries and schools.And technology from MokaFive can send an entire virtual machine—complete with operating systems, applications and data—over the network and install it on any PC.Eventually people may no longer need to carry laptops at all.Virtual computers, including data and applications, will follow them everywhere.個人電腦虛擬化正在進(jìn)行。許多公司的電腦已能使用運(yùn)行在一臺中心服務(wù)器上的應(yīng)用軟件。不過，一些新興企業(yè)正推動此概念進(jìn)一步深化。Desktone公司提供虛擬桌面網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)。而一家電腦終端制造商N(yùn)Computing公司，則將個人電腦虛擬化，使之能為多達(dá)30個用戶共享。該公司已售出了超過250萬臺設(shè)備，大部分銷往了發(fā)展中國家與學(xué)校。MokaFive公司的技術(shù)則能將一整臺虛擬機(jī)——包括操作系統(tǒng)、應(yīng)用軟件及數(shù)據(jù)——在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上迅速遷移，并安裝在任一臺個人電腦上。最終，人們也許根本不再需要隨身攜帶筆記本電腦。虛擬計算機(jī)，包括數(shù)據(jù)與應(yīng)用軟件，將如影隨形。

In the long run, smartphones and other mobile devices may also become shells to be filled as needed.Open Kernel Labs, a start-up in which Citrix has a stake, already lets smartphones run applications, multimedia and radio functions on a single processor, cutting manufacturing costs.Software from Citrix turns the iPad, Apple‘s tablet computer, into a terminal for applications that run in a corporate data centre.終究，智能電話與其他設(shè)備也可能變成空殼，按需填充各種軟件數(shù)據(jù)。一家Citrix持股的新興企業(yè)Open Kernel Labs，已使智能電話在一個單處理機(jī)上運(yùn)行應(yīng)用軟件、實(shí)現(xiàn)多媒體及收音機(jī)功能，削減了制造成本。Citrix的軟件，把蘋果的平板電腦iPad，變成了一個應(yīng)用軟件終端，而這些軟件運(yùn)行在一個企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)中心內(nèi)。

How quickly will virtualisation advance? Gartner, a market-research firm, predicts that the overall market for virtualisation software will grow from $2.7 billion this year to $6.3 billion in 2014.There is certainly no lack of demand.Virtualisation lowers costs by enabling firms to make better use of their servers and buy fewer new ones.The technology also allows PCs to be maintained remotely, which is much cheaper.But improved reliability and security are even more of an attraction.Users of MokaFive, for instance, can relaunch their virtual machine should a computer virus infect it.And it can be shut down if a laptop is lost or stolen.虛擬化步伐將會多快？市場調(diào)查公司Gartner預(yù)計，虛擬軟件整體市場將從今年的27億美元，增至2014年的63億美元。需求當(dāng)然不缺。虛擬化讓企業(yè)優(yōu)化使用服務(wù)器，減少新服務(wù)器采購，從而降低了成本。該技術(shù)也允許遠(yuǎn)程維護(hù)個人電腦，這相當(dāng)便宜。不過，可靠性及安全性改善，則更具吸引力。例如，MokaFive的用戶，一旦電腦染毒，虛擬機(jī)就重啟。而要是其筆記本電腦丟失或被偷，虛擬機(jī)就會完全關(guān)閉。

Still, analysts believe virtualisation will win out.Its impact will be felt through the industry.The technology not only makes IT systems more flexible, but allows firms to switch vendors more easily—which will weigh on the vendors‘ profits.Big software firms such as Microsoft and Oracle may be hit hardest.But many hardware-makers may suffer as well, since their wares will become even more of a commodity than they are today.盡管如此，分析家認(rèn)為虛擬化將最終勝出。整個IT業(yè)都將感受到其影響。該技術(shù)不僅使IT系統(tǒng)更為靈活，也讓企業(yè)更換銷售商更為容易，這將給這些銷售商盈利造成壓力。諸如Microsoft及Oracle之類的軟件巨頭可能受打擊最重。但許多硬件制造商，由于其產(chǎn)品將變成比現(xiàn)在更有價值的一種商品，也可能遭受重創(chuàng)。

What‘s up, BYOC?（注1）

―自帶電腦‖如何？

Moreover, virtualisation makes it much easier to add new servers or storage devices.Alternatively, firms can simply rent extra capacity from operators of what are called ―computing clouds‖, such as Amazon Web Services.That outfit has built a network of data centres in which virtual machines and disks can be launched in seconds.As a result, IT systems will increasingly no longer be a capital expense（注2）, but an operational cost（注3）, like electricity.此外，虛擬化使得增添新服務(wù)器或存儲設(shè)備非常容易。如若不然，企業(yè)也能簡單地從所謂的―計算云‖運(yùn)營商（如Amazon Web Services公司）那租用額外磁盤容量。這家廠商已建立了一個數(shù)據(jù)中心網(wǎng)絡(luò)，其中的虛擬機(jī)及磁盤能在數(shù)秒內(nèi)啟動。結(jié)果，IT系統(tǒng)愈來愈不是一種資本支出，而是一種運(yùn)營成本，跟電力一樣。

Yet the most noticeable change for computer users will be that more employees will be allowed to bring their own PC or smartphone to work, says Brian Madden of TechTarget, a consultancy.Companies can install a secure virtual heart on private machines, doing away with the need for a separate corporate device.A ―bring your own computer‖ or ―BYOC‖ movement has already emerged in America.Companies such as Citrix and Kraft Foods pay their employees a stipend, which they can use to buy any PC they want—even an Apple Mac.然而，電腦用戶感受到的最顯著變化，則是更多雇員將獲準(zhǔn)攜帶自己的個人電腦或智能電話工作，一家咨詢公司TechTarget的Brian Madden這樣說。企業(yè)可在私人機(jī)器上安裝一個可靠的虛擬心臟，這也擺脫了對企業(yè)設(shè)備的單獨(dú)需求。一種―自帶電腦‖或―BYOC‖運(yùn)動已在美國出現(xiàn)。像Citrix和Kraft Foods這樣的公司，付給雇員津貼，讓他們用其購買想要的任何電腦，甚或蘋果Mac電腦。

Such innovations may help to ease growing tensions between workers and IT departments.New privacy regulations and rampant cybercrime are pushing firms to tighten control of company PCs and smartphones.At the same time more and more ―digital natives（注4）‖ enter the workforce.They have grown up with the freewheeling internet and do not suffer boring black corporate laptops gladly.Giving workers more freedom while helping firms keep control may prove to be the biggest benefit of virtualisation.這類創(chuàng)新或許有助于緩解員工與IT部門間日益緊張的關(guān)系。新的隱私規(guī)則出臺，網(wǎng)絡(luò)犯罪猖獗，正推動企業(yè)加強(qiáng)對公司個人電腦與智能電話的管控。與此同時，越來越多的―數(shù)碼原住民‖步入職場。他們與無拘無束的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)一起長大成人，很高興不用忍受單調(diào)乏味的公司黑筆記本電腦。給予員工更多自由，同時協(xié)助企業(yè)管控，或許證明是虛擬化的最大收益。

注1：What‘s up, BYOC?

小標(biāo)題源自美國1972年出品的電影―What‘s up, Doc?‖，中文片名一般譯為《愛的大追蹤》，或―出什么事了，大夫？ / 瘋狂飛車大鬧唐人街 / 愛的大逃亡‖。

注2：capital expense Capital Spending/Capital Expenditures/Capital Expense 資本支出

某些支出—如購置廠房、機(jī)器、設(shè)備等—可以使以后多個會計年度受益而非當(dāng)年消耗完畢，這種支出形成的企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)能力，稱為資本支出(capital expenditures)。當(dāng)一個企業(yè)花錢購買固定資產(chǎn)或給已有固定資產(chǎn)增加價值時，這就產(chǎn)生了資本支出。在會計中，把支出記作資產(chǎn)的辦法，稱為資本化。

由于稅收的目的，資本支出不能在它們被支付或發(fā)生的年度扣除成本，并且必須被資本化。一般的規(guī)則是，如果收購的物業(yè)的使用年限超過納稅的年限，成本必須被資本化。資本開支成本會在以上資產(chǎn)的使用時期被分期償還或貶值。

如上所述，資本支出給資產(chǎn)或財產(chǎn)創(chuàng)造或增加了基準(zhǔn)，而一旦資本支出調(diào)整，將決定出售或轉(zhuǎn)讓時的稅務(wù)責(zé)任。

對任何公司的會計問題是，特定的支出是該被資本化還是被算作開銷。某個月里被算作開銷的支出會很簡單的作為成本出現(xiàn)在當(dāng)月的財務(wù)報表中。而資本化的開支，會很多年來分期償還。資本化的開支會出現(xiàn)在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上。大多數(shù)普通的商業(yè)開支很明顯的是資本化或是被算作開銷，但是某些開支會因公司的偏好而被放在任何一類。

注3：operational cost 營業(yè)成本(Operating costs)，也稱經(jīng)營成本、運(yùn)營成本，是指企業(yè)所銷售商品或者提供勞務(wù)的成本。營業(yè)成本應(yīng)當(dāng)與所銷售商品或者所提供勞務(wù)而取得的收入進(jìn)行配比。營業(yè)成本是與營業(yè)收入直接相關(guān)的，已經(jīng)確定了歸屬期和歸屬對象的各種直接費(fèi)用。營業(yè)成本主要包括主營業(yè)務(wù)成本、其他業(yè)務(wù)成本。銷售產(chǎn)品、商品和提供勞務(wù)的營業(yè)成本，是由生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營成本形成的。工業(yè)企業(yè)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)成本（也稱制造成本）的構(gòu)成主要包括：

1.直接材料：包括企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營過程中實(shí)際消耗的直接用于產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)，構(gòu)成產(chǎn)品實(shí)體的原材料、輔助材料、備品備件、外購半成品、燃料、動力、包裝物以及其他直接材料。2.直接工資：包括企業(yè)直接從事產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)人員的工資、獎金、津貼和補(bǔ)貼。

3.其他直接支出：包括直接從事產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)人員的職工福利費(fèi)等。

4.制造費(fèi)用：企業(yè)可以根據(jù)自身需要，對成本構(gòu)成項目進(jìn)行適當(dāng)調(diào)整。

A digital native is a person who was born after the general implementation of digital technology, and as a result, has had a familiarity with digital technologies such as computers, the Internet, mobile phones,and digital audio players over their entire lives.A digital immigrant is an individual who was born before the existence of digital technology and adopted it to some extent later.Alternatively, this term can describe people born in the latter 1970s or later, as the Digital Age began at that time;but in most cases the term focuses on people who grew up with 21st Century technology.This term has been used in several different contexts, such as education(Bennett, Maton & Kervin 2008)(in association with the term New Millennium Learners(OECD 2008)).More complicated than you think 比你想象的復(fù)雜

A new, giant virus is confounding old certainties 新的、巨型病毒正在挑戰(zhàn)人類的思維定勢 Oct 28th 2010

BIODIVERSITY is not just a matter of tigers and whales, or butterflies and trees, or even coral reefs and tuna.It is also about myriad creatures too small to see that live in numbers too large to count in ways too numerous to imagine.It is easy to forget, especially at meetings like the one to discuss the Convention on Biological Diversity that has been taking place in Nagoya under the auspices of the United Nations, that most of biology is in fact microscopic.Indeed, the more microscopic biology gets, the more diverse it becomes.生物多樣性不僅僅是指老虎和鯨魚、蝴蝶和森林，甚至也不僅僅是珊瑚礁和金槍魚。它還指各種小得無法看見、多得無法計算、生存方式令人無法想象的生物。尤其是在聯(lián)合國主持在名古屋（Nagoya）召開的生物多樣性大會上，人們很容易忘記討論生物學(xué)的絕大部分事實(shí)上是關(guān)于微生物的。實(shí)際上，生物越微觀，多樣性也越明顯。

CroV, as its full name suggests, is a parasite of Cafeteria roenbergensis, a single-celled planktonic organism that was itself discovered only in 1988.Despite the recentness of its discovery, C.roenbergensis is one of the commonest creatures on the planet.It is also reckoned by some, given that it hunts down and eats bacteria, to be the most abundant predator on Earth.It is found in every ocean.The samples of C.roenbergensis from which Dr Suttle and his team extracted their quarry were collected off the coast of Texas.CroV，正如其名字所表示的一樣，是Cafeteria roenbergensis的一種寄生蟲，而前者則是一種人們于1988年發(fā)現(xiàn)的以浮游生物為食的單細(xì)胞生物。盡管其發(fā)現(xiàn)歷史不長，Cafeteria roenbergensis是我們這個星球上最常見的物種之一。此外，由于它獵殺、捕食其他細(xì)菌，有人據(jù)此推斷它是地球上數(shù)量最多的捕食者。各大洋都能見到其身影。Scuttle和他的團(tuán)隊從中發(fā)現(xiàn)CroV的Cafeteria roenbergensis的樣品就是來自德州海岸的海水。

To see a world in a grain of sand 從一粒沙子看到一個世界

That quarry‘s nature, reported this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is not a complete surprise.A larger virus, called Mimivirus, which lives in freshwater amoebas, turned up in 2003 and a few other, similar, viruses have been found since then.But CroV is by far the biggest to come out of the sea.本周的《美國國家科學(xué)院院刊》報道了這一新發(fā)現(xiàn)病毒的性質(zhì)，這也并非完全出人意料。因為另一個比較大稱為―Mimivirus‖的病毒，是一種生活在淡水中變形蟲，在2003年就被人發(fā)現(xiàn)，還有其他幾個類似的病毒之后也相繼被人發(fā)現(xiàn)。但是CroV是來自海洋的最大的病毒。

Those who like their categories cut and dried may wonder whether viruses are alive or not.Wise biologists do not struggle too much with such questions.Viruses have genes, can reproduce and are subject to the evolutionary pressures imposed by natural selection.That is enough for biology to claim them.As for CroV, those 544 genes(composed of 730,000 base pairs, the DNA letters in which the language of the genes is written)mean its genome is bigger than those of several bacteria—creatures which everyone agrees are alive.那些習(xí)慣于傳統(tǒng)分類學(xué)的人可能想知道病毒是活的還是死的。真正明智的生物學(xué)家不太糾纏于這類問題。病毒有基因，能再生，需要應(yīng)對自然選擇的進(jìn)化壓力。對生物學(xué)而言，這足以讓其有資格成為生物了。至于CroV，那些544個基因（由73萬組堿基對組成，這是構(gòu)成基因語言的DNA字母）表明其基因圖譜比幾種大家認(rèn)為是活體的細(xì)菌生物要大。

The problem with categorical thinking in biology is that evolution does not work like that.It actually works by whatever works working.If an organism can successfully subcontract part of the business of metabolism to another while retaining the rest itself, rather than offloading the whole lot as most viruses do, then there are no rules to stop it happening.在生物學(xué)上，對什么都要分門別類的思維面臨的問題是生物進(jìn)化的方式并非一成不變。進(jìn)化實(shí)際上是不拘一格，隨遇而安。如果一種生物能夠成功地將部分新陳代謝工作分包給另一個生物，但同時又保留其余的新陳代謝工作，而不是象大多數(shù)病毒那樣把工作全部推掉，那么，就沒有任何規(guī)則阻止其進(jìn)化。

CroV seems to do just that.Besides the genes that relate to protein synthesis it has others which encode DNA repair mechanisms and still others which are involved with protein recycling and signalling within cells.This is not mere hijacking.It is tantamount to a complete personality transplant for the infected cell.Crov似乎正是這么做的。除與蛋白合成有關(guān)的基因外，它將DNA修復(fù)機(jī)制的編碼工作以及細(xì)胞內(nèi)蛋白的回收和發(fā)送信號工作都交給其他生物完成。這不僅僅是簡單的劫持。這相當(dāng)于將特性完整植入被感染的細(xì)胞。

About a third of CroV‘s genes are similar to Mimivirus genes, suggesting they share a distant ancestor.On the other hand, two-thirds are not.A significant chunk of them seem to have been copied from bacteria.But the majority are unique, and previously unknown to science.A whole new chapter of life, in other words, has been opened.CroV的基因中，約有三分之一同Mimivirus基因類似，說明它們之間都擁有共同的祖先。從另一方面講，它們之間還有三分之二的基因不同。其中很大一部分似乎是從細(xì)菌中復(fù)制的。但大多數(shù)基因在科學(xué)上特性明顯，屬于新發(fā)現(xiàn)的基因。換句話說，人類已經(jīng)翻開了生命研究的新篇章。

This discovery, then—and the earlier one of C.roenbergensis itself—speak volumes, albeit in a microscopic language, about biodiversity.Two centuries after Carl Linnaeus invented the system now used to describe it, and a century after Charles Darwin worked out what causes it, the ability of that diversity to surprise is still staggering.這一發(fā)現(xiàn)—以及早先發(fā)現(xiàn)的C.roenbergensis —充分說明了生物的多樣性，盡管是以微生物的語言表述的。生物多樣性至今依然讓人眼花繚亂，目不暇接，盡管卡爾?林奈（Carl Linnaeus）200年前就發(fā)明了我們現(xiàn)在仍然使用的其描述體系，盡管達(dá)爾文100年前就找到了其發(fā)生的原因。

Science and Technology

譯者心得：

1.本文是科技文章，又是微生物的，很多業(yè)外人士有恐懼感（我也不例外），想象拉丁文名字就夠頭大的。但這類文章語言比較規(guī)范，邏輯性強(qiáng)，所以，通過專業(yè)工具書解決掉最困難的名稱之外，其他部分的翻譯，同一般英文一樣。

2.幾個詞匯的處理。首句中的―matter‖很多人譯為―事情‖，―是關(guān)于什么什么的事情‖，這樣的譯文讀起來很羅嗦，其實(shí)擔(dān)子大一些，置之不理，中文意思也出來了。另外，―Viruses have genes, can reproduce and are subject to the evolutionary pressures imposed by natural selection.That is enough for biology to claim them‖本段中的―Claim‖不太好翻，for biology to claim them，讓生物學(xué)對它們有主張，讓生物學(xué)認(rèn)領(lǐng)它們，其實(shí)就是―它們有資格屬于生物范疇‖的意思，如果直譯，估計譯者本人也覺得不是滋味。

3.一個復(fù)雜句子的處理。―In that context, the discovery by Curtis Suttle of the University of British Columbia and his colleagues of a critter they propose to call Cafeteria roenbergensis virus, or CroV, should not be surprising‖，先看一下直翻，―從這個意義上講，由英屬哥倫比亞大學(xué)的Curtis Suttle和他的同事發(fā)現(xiàn)的一種他們建議命名為Cafeteria roenbergensis 病毒的生物，或CroV，不應(yīng)該太出人意料?！@樣的句子不能說不對，但但起來非常羅嗦，翻譯腔太強(qiáng)，因此，在準(zhǔn)確表述愿意的前提下，我譯為―從這個意義上講，英屬哥倫比亞大學(xué)的Curtis Suttle和他的同事發(fā)現(xiàn)的一種新生物，不應(yīng)該太出人意料。他們建議將其命名為Cafeteria roenbergensis病毒，或CroV?！瑢⒃洳馂閮删?，使其更符合中文行文習(xí)慣。這在翻譯中很常見，畢竟譯出的東西是讓中國人看的。

4.一個簡單句型的處理。―It is found in every ocean‖，這句話很簡單，它被發(fā)現(xiàn)于各大洋，它存在于各大洋等等，都不錯。但鑒于前文出現(xiàn)―hunts down and eats bacteria, to be the most abundant predator ‖這類動作性很強(qiáng)的語句，我們不妨在這里也―生動‖一些，譯為―各大洋都能見到其身影‖。

5.關(guān)于邏輯性。翻譯其實(shí)就是理解外語的邏輯性，然后將其外語按照譯入語的邏輯性進(jìn)行翻譯。本文中CroV和Cafeteria roenbergensis什么關(guān)系？不要被名字嚇倒，注意這句―CroV, as its full name suggests, is a parasite of Cafeteria roenbergensis, a single-celled planktonic organism that was itself discovered only in 1988‖，說得是CroV其實(shí)是寄生在Cafeteria roenbergensis上的一種生物，是宿主身上的一種病毒。關(guān)系弄清了，下文接著講的都是宿主Cafeteria roenbergensis的事情，它們?nèi)绾尾妒?，生存在什么地方。這其實(shí)也就間接介紹了CroV。

6.名言警句的引用?！督?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》的文章經(jīng)常不經(jīng)意間引用一些名言警句、詩詞歌賦，恰當(dāng)?shù)乇硎銎湟饬x。本文不例外。―To see a world in a grain of sand‖在本文中就有類似中文―麻雀雖小，五臟俱全‖的意思，即使是一粒沙子，那上面生存著蕓蕓眾生。建議大家看一部動畫片，―Horton hears a who‖，里邊講的是一頭大象如何同一朵蒲公英上的生命群體溝通的故事。這句話來自英國詩人William Blake的一首詩： ―A Grain of Sand 一粒沙子

William Blake/威廉.布萊克 To see a world in a grain of sand, And a heaven in a wild flower, Hold infinity in the palm of your hand, And eternity in an hour.從一粒沙子看到一個世界，從一朵野花看到一個天堂，把握在你手心里的就是無限，永恒也就消融于一個時辰。‖（摘自網(wǎng)絡(luò)）

總之，翻譯需要什么都懂，否則譯出的東西要么讓人如墜五里霧中，要么讓人笑掉大牙，因此，譯完之后，多次校對，是必不可少的步驟。

Raúl the pragmatist 實(shí)用主義者勞爾

Bold changes intended to preserve Cuban communism may herald the beginning of its end 旨在保護(hù)古巴共產(chǎn)主義的大膽變革反而有可能變成了掘墓人

Nov 11th 2010

SHORTLY after he took charge of Cuba from his ailing brother, Fidel, in 2006, Raúl Castro declared that his country‘s moribund communist economy needed to change.But his failure to make anything more than marginal adjustments disappointed hopes that he would follow Chinese and Vietnamese communist leaders in combining capitalist economics and growing social freedom with continued party control.勞爾.卡斯特羅2006年從他罹病的兄長—菲德爾卡.斯特羅手中接過了執(zhí)掌古巴的大權(quán)，不久之后他宣稱祖國的經(jīng)濟(jì)處于垂死邊緣，亟需改變。但他最大的失敗在于只進(jìn)行不管痛癢的調(diào)整，這讓人們的期望大大落空；大家原以為他可以效法中國和越南的共產(chǎn)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，將資本主義經(jīng)濟(jì)及日益增長的社會自由性與黨的持續(xù)控制有效的結(jié)合在一起。

Now, at last, Mr Castro is showing signs of boldness.Over the past few weeks he has launched some potentially far-reaching changes.By April 1st 500,000 Cubans will be laid off from their state jobs and encouraged to make their own living in small businesses.Over the next two or three years, another 800,000 are likely to join them.Eventually up to two Cubans in five will no longer work for the state.從現(xiàn)在的形式看來，卡斯特羅先生最終還是顯現(xiàn)出了果敢的跡象。過去數(shù)周時間里，他推行了一些極其深遠(yuǎn)的變革舉措。截至到4月1日，50萬古巴民眾丟掉了國家工作的鐵飯碗，政府鼓勵他們用小買賣自謀生路。未來2-3年的時間中，另外80萬人也將加入下崗大軍的隊伍。最終將有五分之二的古巴人不會再為國家工作。

本周卡斯特羅先生召開了從4月底一直推遲到現(xiàn)在的共產(chǎn)黨代表大會，會議的主旨是批準(zhǔn)全新的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式歌；與此同時，政府已經(jīng)釋放了超過50名政治犯。在柏林墻倒塌20年后的今天，難道古巴共產(chǎn)主義最終還是難逃過時的命數(shù)？

Any answer must be hedged about with caveats.The economists advising Mr Castro are barred from talking of ―reform‖.In its guidelines for the party congress, the leadership declares that ―only socialism [ie, communism] is capable of overcoming our difficulties and preserving the gains of the revolution‖ and that in the new economy ―planning will be paramount, not the market.‖ No Cuban official has matched Deng Xiaoping‘s embrace of ―market socialism‖, let alone his(perhaps apocryphal)injunction that ―to get rich is glorious‖.The welcome release of prisoners seems merely to have been a move to deflect outside criticism after the death of one of them in a hunger strike, rather than a first step in dismantling the island‘s police state.Indeed the army is playing a bigger role in the economy and in government.任何答案都必須謹(jǐn)小慎微。給卡斯特羅先生提供咨詢的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們被禁止談?wù)摳母?。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)在會議綱領(lǐng)中指示―只有社會主義，暨共產(chǎn)主義才有能力克服當(dāng)前的艱難困苦，并保持革命取得的勝利果實(shí)‖；同時還指出，在新經(jīng)濟(jì)模式中―占據(jù)最高地位的是計劃，而不是市場‖。沒有一個古巴官員可以達(dá)到鄧小平的高度，領(lǐng)悟到―社會主義市場‖的真諦，更不必說他―致富最光榮‖的命令了（也許這是杜撰出來的）。在一名囚徒因絕食斗爭送命后，深受歡迎的釋放囚犯行為似乎只是為了轉(zhuǎn)移外界的批判，而非邁出了廢除本島極權(quán)國家的第一步。實(shí)際上軍界才是在經(jīng)濟(jì)和政府中更為重要的角色。

Yet Raúl‘s reforms go much further than Fidel‘s reluctant acceptance of foreign investment and limited self-employment after the collapse of the Soviet Union, partially reversed on the appearance of a new benefactor, Hugo Chávez‘s Venezuela.For the first time since the 1960s Cubans will be able to employ other Cubans(even though the constitution bans such ―exploitation‖).Many of the rules under which these new businesses will operate are still being drawn up.But it seems that Cubans will now be able to get loans and rent and buy property.Other changes are likely to follow.Mr Castro talks of gradually eliminating the free food rations that Cubans get, and moving towards targeted social assistance(as elsewhere in Latin America).The corollary is that wages will have to go up—and increasingly they will be set in the market.蘇聯(lián)解體后，菲德爾極不情愿的接納了境外投資和有限的自由職業(yè)者；然而勞爾的改革比他的兄長深入很多，在委內(nèi)瑞拉的大恩人查韋斯登臺后，部分舉措與從前大相徑庭。從上世紀(jì)60年代至今，盡管憲法禁止這類―剝削‖，但古巴人首次可以對本國公民進(jìn)行雇傭。很多對新型企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營進(jìn)行規(guī)范的法規(guī)還正在規(guī)劃中；但古巴人似乎已經(jīng)可以獲得貸款、出租房屋以及購買不動產(chǎn)。一些其他的變革也很有可能緊隨其后?？ㄋ固亓_提及逐漸取消古巴民眾正在獲得的免費(fèi)的食物配給，而是同拉美其他地區(qū)一樣，向著計劃好的社會救濟(jì)發(fā)展。必然出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果是工資不得不上調(diào)，并且日益受到市場的控制。

In all this Mr Castro is bowing to reality.He has been withering in his criticism of the featherbedding that has bankrupted the state.He has also refused to blame the American economic embargo for problems which he rightly says are self-inflicted.His pragmatism has finally won out against his brother‘s doctrinaire Utopianism.卡斯特羅在這些方面都屈從于現(xiàn)實(shí)：他對于導(dǎo)致國家破產(chǎn)的額外雇工進(jìn)行了極尖刻的批判；同時也拒絕對美國采取貿(mào)易禁運(yùn)所造成的問題進(jìn)行批判，他認(rèn)為這些問題都是自尋煩惱。在卡斯特羅兄弟的較量中，勞爾的使用主義最終戰(zhàn)勝了菲德爾教條的烏托邦主義。

Apart from the economy, the other big task facing Mr Castro, who is 79(and Fidel 84), is to start handing over power to a younger generation.That may come after the party congress next year.In the meantime, his new boldness represents an opportunity for those who hope that Cuba will eventually join the rest of Latin America in accepting democracy and the market economy, for once the market‘s green shoots appear they tend to flourish.除了經(jīng)濟(jì)問題以外，現(xiàn)年79歲了勞爾（菲德爾已經(jīng)84歲了）所面臨的更艱巨的任務(wù)是開始著手將全力傳遞到年輕一代手中，不過這將是明年黨代會以后的事情了。同時，對于那些希望古巴最終可以加入拉美其他國家的行列，接受民主和市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的人來說，他果敢的新政代表著希望；只要市場經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)一抹新綠，必將是一派繁花似錦的景象。

How to help kill communism 怎樣搭把手，滅了共產(chǎn)主義

Outsiders should take their lead from the common position that Europe adopted in 1996, which allows it to help in ―the progressive and irreversible opening of the Cuban economy‖ while predicating closer friendship on moves towards democracy.Offering training and credit—as Brazil has done—to Cuba‘s incipient private sector would be a good move.Rewarding Cuba for releasing prisoners who should never have been locked up in the first place—as Miguel Moratinos, Spain‘s recently sacked foreign minister, wanted—would not.局外人應(yīng)該從1996年歐洲采用的共同立場中著手，旨在幫助―古巴進(jìn)行先進(jìn)且不可逆的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革‖，同時在走向民主的道路上還能建立日益深厚的友誼。象巴西一樣給古巴的早期私營經(jīng)濟(jì)提供培訓(xùn)和信貸，不失為一個很好的嘗試。如果象最近遭解雇的西班牙外長Miguel Moratinos,所希望的那樣，古巴因為釋放那些原本就不應(yīng)該遭到逮捕的犯人而得到獎勵，就不是一個好的嘗試。

America‘s embargo remains as futile and counter-productive as ever.Although Barack Obama has commendably reversed George W.Bush‘s restrictions on visits and remittances by Cuban-Americans, Republican control of Congress will make it even less likely that the embargo will be dismantled.That‘s a great shame.The embargo has allowed the Castros to pose as proud Cuban nationalists standing up to a bullying hegemon and thus helped them cling to power.If change is at last under way it is despite the embargo, not because of it.美國的貿(mào)易禁運(yùn)一如既往的無效甚至是達(dá)到了反效果。奧巴馬已經(jīng)很好的撤銷了小布什針對古巴裔美國人實(shí)施的拜訪及匯款禁令，但共和黨掌舵的國會讓接觸貿(mào)易禁運(yùn)的可能性變得更加渺茫；這將是非常大的遺憾。貿(mào)易禁運(yùn)讓卡斯特羅兄弟擺出一副古巴民族主義者的英雄形象，直面恃強(qiáng)凌弱的至高強(qiáng)權(quán)；他們更是借此緊握政權(quán)。如果說改變正在發(fā)生，那這些改變不是因貿(mào)易禁運(yùn)而起，甚至無視它的存在。Lebanon and the region 黎巴嫩與中東地區(qū)

Can there be justice as well as stability? 既要正義也要穩(wěn)定，可能嗎？

As the UN prepares to announce indictments for a series of murders and assassinations, the mood in Lebanon is getting edgy

聯(lián)合國準(zhǔn)備宣布針對一系列謀殺案的起訴，黎巴嫩人的心情日漸緊張

Nov 11th 2010 | Cairo

IT IS the strangest of courtroom dramas.Distinguished judges and a prosecutor sit in a sleepy suburb of the Dutch capital, The Hague.The case has plenty of victims: 61 people, including Lebanon‘s then prime minister, Rafik Hariri, were murdered and 494 injured in a spree of bombings and assassinations that racked Lebanon from 2004 to 2008.But though the UN-sponsored Special Tribunal for Lebanon has yet to convene or to charge anyone for the crimes, the impending trial threatens not only to reignite a firestorm in Lebanon, but also to spread sectarian tensions across the Middle East and to vex relations even more between the region‘s big adversaries, Iran and the United States.If Lebanon were to blow up again, Israel and Syria could well step in once more, turning the current Middle East peace process into a slide back towards war.這是一部最為怪誕的法庭劇。尊貴的法官大人們與檢察官坐在荷蘭首都海牙郊外昏昏欲睡。此案受害者甚多：從2004至2008年間發(fā)生了一系列瘋狂的爆炸和暗殺事件，包括黎巴嫩前總理拉菲克?哈里里（Rafik Hariri）在內(nèi)共有61人被害，494人受傷。這些事件使黎巴嫩陷入痛苦之中。盡管聯(lián)合國成立了黎巴嫩問題特別法庭，但尚未開庭或指控任何人對上述罪行負(fù)責(zé)。即將到來的開庭審判不僅可能引燃黎巴嫩國內(nèi)的火藥桶，而且還可能將教派沖突擴(kuò)散到整個中東地區(qū)，對本地區(qū)最大的一對冤家——伊朗和美國的關(guān)系火上澆油。如果黎巴嫩內(nèi)戰(zhàn)再次爆發(fā)，以色列和敘利亞也很有可能再次介入，如此將導(dǎo)致目前的中東和平進(jìn)程發(fā)生逆行，滑向另一場中東戰(zhàn)爭。

Few foresaw this when the UN Security Council ordered an investigation into the car-bombing of February 2005 in Beirut, the Lebanese capital, when Mr Hariri, a billionaire Sunni who was seeking his sixth turn at running the government, was assassinated along with 22 others.That sparked a furious popular backlash, prompting the exit of Syrian troops who had lingered, increasingly unwanted, to enforce peace after Lebanon‘s civil war of 1975-90.Then followed the electoral triumph of Mr Hariri‘s pro-Western coalition, known as the March 14th alliance, after the date of a big anti-Syrian demonstration.Many Lebanese, as well as the UN‘s first investigating team, assumed that Syria had arranged Mr Hariri‘s murder, and expected the case‘s swift resolution.2005年2月在黎巴嫩首都貝魯特發(fā)生了一起汽車炸彈爆炸事件，當(dāng)時伊斯蘭遜尼派的億萬富翁哈里里正在尋求第六次就任黎巴嫩總理一職，在這起暗殺中哈里里與其他22人一同遇難。當(dāng)聯(lián)合國安理會下令對這起事件進(jìn)行調(diào)查時，沒有任何人預(yù)見到其后果會如何。這一事件引發(fā)了公眾憤怒的反應(yīng)，促使了敘利亞的撤軍行動。黎巴嫩于1975至1990年間爆發(fā)了內(nèi)戰(zhàn)，敘利亞隨后派出了這支維和部隊，這支部隊盡管愈來愈不受歡迎，但之前一直賴著不走。接著，在隨后進(jìn)行的一場大規(guī)模反敘利亞示威游行后，哈里里的親西方盟友，所謂的―3?14聯(lián)盟‖獲得了選戰(zhàn)的勝利。許多黎巴嫩人以及聯(lián)合國派出調(diào)查此案的第一個調(diào)查團(tuán)都認(rèn)為是敘利亞策劃了哈里里的謀殺案，并預(yù)期此案能夠得到迅速解決。

It was not to be.Over the next three years sporadic bombings and shootings targeted prominent backers of the March 14th alliance, Christian areas, and Lebanese officers involved in the investigation.Even as the investigators‘ brief widened to include these later attacks, their credibility fell when it emerged that key witnesses implicating Syria had apparently made up their testimony.但這是不可能的。在隨后的三年內(nèi)又陸續(xù)出現(xiàn)了幾起針對―3?14聯(lián)盟‖支持者中有影響力的人士、基督教派系人士及參與調(diào)查此案的黎巴嫩官員的爆炸和槍擊事件。正當(dāng)調(diào)查人員們將調(diào)查范圍擴(kuò)大到后來的這些襲擊事件時，人們對調(diào)查小組的信任卻下降了。因為此時關(guān)鍵證人暗示敘利亞顯然是編造了證詞。

Meanwhile, March 14th‘s pro-Syrian adversaries, led by Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shia party-cum-militia which emerged strengthened from a war with Israel in July 2006, mounted a tenacious and effective campaign to challenge the pro-Western faction.This culminated in an invasion of central Beirut in May 2008 by Hizbullah gunmen that forced March 14th to accept a power-sharing deal.Hizbullah and its allies thereby secured a veto over government decisions but at the cost of deepening the bitter schism that now largely pits Lebanon‘s Sunnis and Shias, each with nearly one-third of the population, against each other, and splits the third who are Christian into sparring factions backing one side or another.此時，―3?14聯(lián)盟‖的對手，由真主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的親敘利亞的黎巴嫩什葉派政黨暨民兵組織通過2006年7月與以色列的一場戰(zhàn)爭而強(qiáng)大起來，他們展開了一場挑戰(zhàn)親西方派別的頑強(qiáng)而有效的運(yùn)動。這場奪權(quán)運(yùn)動的高潮出現(xiàn)在2008年5月，真主黨武裝人員闖入貝魯特市中心，用武力迫使―3?14聯(lián)盟‖接受一項權(quán)力分享協(xié)議。真主黨及其盟友從而獲得了對政府所作決定的否決權(quán)，但其代價是加深了教派的分裂，使黎巴嫩的遜尼派和什葉派間的深溝難以與逾越。這兩個派系各占有黎巴嫩近1/3的人口，雙方水火不相容，并使黎巴嫩另1/3信仰基督教的人口也分裂成兩派，他們支持伊斯蘭派系的一方或另一方，爭吵不休。

Since then, as the tribunal‘s work has dragged on, many Lebanese have grown weary of the whole process.Lately, this weariness has turned to alarm.The court is expected to issue an indictment soon.Leaks strongly suggest it will not accuse Syria but rather senior officers of Hizbullah itself.The implications of such a charge are explosive.The party has long exalted its role as a heroic protector of Lebanon, justifying its impressive arsenal on the grounds, however implausible to outsiders, that its weapons are trained solely on Israeli invaders and not fellow Lebanese.自那以后，隨著特別法庭的開庭審判一拖再拖，許多黎巴嫩人已經(jīng)對整個過程感到了厭倦。最近，這種厭倦的情緒變得讓人吃驚。預(yù)計該法庭很快就會簽發(fā)一項起訴書。據(jù)透漏出的消息，這份起訴書很可能不會指控敘利亞，而將指控真主黨高級官員為暗殺事件的主謀。這樣一份起訴書將產(chǎn)生爆炸性的后果。真主黨長期以來一直自封為的黎巴嫩英勇的保護(hù)者，將之作為維持其龐大武裝的冠冕堂皇的理由，但外人難以相信其槍口只是對準(zhǔn)以色列侵略者而不是黎巴嫩同胞的說法。

Along with Hizbullah‘s devoted followers, many non-Shias readily accept such arguments.But should Hizbullah be proven to have mounted a systematic campaign of extermination against Sunni Muslim and Christian political opponents in Lebanon, the party‘s reputation would be severely damaged, along with that of its main backer, Iran, whose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, made a recent festively triumphant visit to Lebanon.與真主黨的忠實(shí)追隨者一道，許多非什葉派黎巴嫩人也準(zhǔn)備接受這種說法。真主黨策劃了針對黎巴嫩遜尼派穆斯林及基督教政治對手的系統(tǒng)消滅行動一旦獲得證實(shí)，該黨連同其主要后臺——伊朗的聲望都將受到嚴(yán)重?fù)p害。伊朗總統(tǒng)內(nèi)賈德最近剛剛結(jié)束了黎巴嫩節(jié)日一般喜氣洋洋的訪問。

Mr Hariri‘s son Saad, who now leads March 14th as Lebanon‘s prime minister, has quietly reassured Hizbullah that he would publicly insist that any of its members implicated in the killings would be considered merely rogue actors.Conveniently also, the man most widely believed to have orchestrated the killings is dead.Imad Mughniyeh, well known since being implicated in bombings and hostage-takings during Lebanon‘s civil war, headed Hizbullah‘s special operations forces, and was a key link to Iran‘s Revolutionary Guard before his unexplained assassination in Damascus in February 2008.Curiously, the killings in Lebanon stopped abruptly at the same time.哈里里的兒子薩阿德現(xiàn)在是―3?14聯(lián)盟‖的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，也是黎巴嫩現(xiàn)任總理，他私下向真主黨保證他將公開堅持其觀點(diǎn)，即任何與這起暗殺事件有牽連的真主黨成員都將被視為僅僅是制造了一起無賴行為。更便當(dāng)?shù)氖?，人們普遍認(rèn)為是精心策劃了這起暗殺事件的人已經(jīng)死了。伊邁德?穆尼耶（Imad Mughniyeh）是真主黨特種作戰(zhàn)部隊的首腦，也是真主黨同伊朗革命衛(wèi)隊保持聯(lián)系的一個關(guān)鍵人物，他以黎巴嫩內(nèi)戰(zhàn)期間制造了一系列爆炸和劫持人質(zhì)事件而臭名昭著，2008年2月他在發(fā)生在大馬士革的一場難以解釋的暗殺中身亡。令人奇怪的是，同一時間內(nèi)黎巴嫩的暗殺事件突然停止了。

But Hizbullah, apparently confident in its strength, rejects any suggestion of its involvement.Instead, its leaders have attacked the tribunal with growing vigour, accusing it of being an American tool and of ignoring purported evidence of Israel‘s hand in the killings.In Beirut last month party loyalists posing as a pack of angry veiled women scratched, punched and bit members of a team from the UN investigation in southern Beirut.Hizbullah leaders followed this staged provocation with denunciations of the UN‘s supposed affront to the virtue of Lebanese womanhood, declaring that henceforth any co-operation with the tribunal would be equated to collaboration with the ―Zionist enemy‖.真主黨顯然是對自身實(shí)力信心滿滿，拒絕接受任何它參與了謀殺的指控。相反，其領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人攻擊特別法庭的調(diào)門不斷升高，指責(zé)該法庭為美國的工具，對傳說中以色列制造了這起謀殺的證據(jù)不予采信。上個月在貝魯特，一群真主黨的支持者扮成蒙著面紗的憤怒婦女，對來自貝魯特南部的聯(lián)合國調(diào)查人員是又撓又咬又打。真主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在這起挑釁事件后譴責(zé)聯(lián)合國調(diào)查人員冒犯了黎巴嫩婦女的高貴操守，聲稱今后任何與特別法庭的合作行為都將被視為與―猶太復(fù)國主義敵人‖同流合污。

The party‘s allies have made a noisy issue of the initial false testimony cited by investigators and long since discarded, in an effort to discredit the entire judicial process.More ominously, voices sympathetic to Hizbullah whisper that its militia, widely seen as far tougher than Lebanon‘s ill-equipped conscript army, is ready to take swift control of ports, borders and main cities.Such a move might well provoke Israeli generals, whose itch to tame the Shia party is as intense as it was when they launched their fierce but inconclusive war in 2006, after a spat between Hizbullah and an Israeli border patrol.真主黨的盟友們抓住調(diào)查人員最初采信了偽證的問題小題大做，鬧得沸沸揚(yáng)揚(yáng)。其實(shí)這個偽證被廢棄已久，他們這樣做的目的無非是千方百計想抹黑整個司法調(diào)查過程。更嚴(yán)重的是，真主黨的同情者們透漏說，真主黨民兵武裝正在準(zhǔn)備采取行動以迅速控制黎巴嫩的港口、邊境和主要城市。真主黨民兵武裝的實(shí)力遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過黎巴嫩裝備低劣的正規(guī)軍，這已經(jīng)成了人們的普遍看法。此舉很可能會激怒以色列的將軍們，他們對馴服什葉派武裝的沖動與發(fā)動2006年那場戰(zhàn)爭時同樣強(qiáng)烈。那場戰(zhàn)爭的起因是真主黨武裝與以色列邊境巡邏隊間出現(xiàn)的摩擦。戰(zhàn)爭的過程非常慘烈，但無果而終。

In Lebanon‘s polarised landscape Hizbullah‘s large core of loyalists is unlikely to be shaken, even by firm evidence of the party‘s involvement in the killing of Mr Hariri and others.Some of its allies, however, especially in the Christian camp, may prove less immune to repulsion.For such a small country, even one with such a violent past, 555 dead and wounded is a big number.Lebanese nerves are jangling.在黎巴嫩涇渭分明的政治版圖中，即使有明確的證據(jù)證實(shí)真主黨卷入了暗殺哈里里和其他人的行動，真主黨的大批核心支持者也不太可能出現(xiàn)動搖。然而真主黨的一些盟友，尤其是基督教派營壘中的盟友，也許會因此而出現(xiàn)離心的傾向。對于黎巴嫩這樣一個小國，即使過去暴力事件不斷，555人的死傷也絕對不是一個小數(shù)目。這件事正在刺激著黎巴嫩人的神經(jīng)。

Pros clicking at war An American firm wants to turn computer games into a global spectator sport

電腦游戲

職業(yè)選手的鼠標(biāo)大戰(zhàn)

一家美國公司試圖將電腦游戲變成世界級的觀賞性體育項目

Oct 28th 2010

Arriving for a big e-sports match參加電競大賽

THE first round is over and 32 of the world‘s best professional computer-game players are through to the next stage of the Global Starcraft 2 League being played in Seoul, South Korea.Over the next two weeks the players, including the reigning champion, Kim Won-ki(better known by his online moniker ―FruitDealer‖), will marshal their armies, ponder their strategies and crush their foes.The finalists will play in front of an audience of thousands(and hundreds of thousands more online)for an $87,000 first prize and the respect due the best Starcraft 2 player on the planet.第一輪比賽硝煙落定，世界上最優(yōu)秀的32名職業(yè)電腦游戲選手登上了新的舞臺，參加在韓國首爾舉行的星際爭霸2世界聯(lián)賽。衛(wèi)冕冠軍金宏基（大家更熟悉他在線上使用的ID―水果販子‖）也在這批選手當(dāng)中。在接下來的兩周時間里，他們將運(yùn)籌帷幄，揮師征戰(zhàn)，直指敵酋。進(jìn)入決賽的選手將在數(shù)千名觀眾（以及數(shù)以十萬計的在線觀眾）面前爭奪8.7萬美元的獎金，以及全世界最好的星際2選手這一頭銜。

This is e-sports, or professional computer-gaming, at its highest level.Just like football or baseball, computer games can be played competitively and in front of paying spectators.South Korea, where the original Starcraft game was released in 1998, is the spiritual home of e-sports.這就是電子競技（或者說職業(yè)化電腦游戲）的最高盛會。像足球和棒球一樣，電腦游戲也成了一項具有競賽性質(zhì)的運(yùn)動，可以吸引付費(fèi)的觀眾。1998年，星際爭霸在韓國首發(fā)，從那之后，韓國成了電子競技精神上的故鄉(xiāng)。

South Korean fans watch games broadcast on cable television and the players are celebrities.Teams flush with sponsorship money pay stars salaries on top of their prize money.(One player, Lee Yoon-Yeol, aka ―Nada‖, is rumoured to earn around $200,000 a year;a journeyman player might make $20,000).Now Activision Blizzard, the California-based company that developed the Starcraft games, is keen to spread the popularity of e-sports in the West.韓國的電競愛好者通過有線電視觀看比賽，電競選手也都成了名人。戰(zhàn)隊通過贊助商籌集資金，再按照獲得的獎金為明星玩家發(fā)薪水。據(jù)稱，綽號Nada的選手李云龍每年大約能賺20萬美元，而一位新人選手也差不多能拿2萬美元左右。星際爭霸的開發(fā)者，總部位于加州的動視-暴雪公司正致力于在西方提升電子競爭的流行度。

Will it work? Professional computer-gaming in the West has been around for several years, with outfits like the Electronic Sports League in Europe and Major League Gaming in America.But it has never taken off to the extent that it has in South Korea.Activision Blizzard thinks that will change as faster broadband makes it easier to broadcast games over the internet.The company designed Starcraft 2 with spectators in mind and has flown famous Korean players to America to play an exhibition match.GomTV, the Korean firm that runs the league, is providing English commentary on games and it has opened the tournament to any non-Korean player that can manage to qualify.這種努力是否能夠獲得成果？職業(yè)電子競爭在西方也已經(jīng)開展了不少年頭了，在歐洲有電子體育聯(lián)賽（ESL），美國則有游戲大聯(lián)盟（MLG），然而其發(fā)展程度始終沒有達(dá)到韓國的水平。動視-暴雪認(rèn)為，隨著寬頻網(wǎng)絡(luò)的發(fā)展，在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上轉(zhuǎn)播比賽會變得更加容易，這種局面也會隨之改變。在星際爭霸2的設(shè)計中，公司始終以競技性為核心理念，還邀請韓國選手到美國打了一場表演賽。韓國方面負(fù)責(zé)運(yùn)營這次表演賽的GomTV公司提供了英文解說，并表示支持所有非韓國選手參加預(yù)選賽。

Advertisers are attracted by the ability of e-sports to target an audience with plenty of spending money;Sony Ericsson is sponsoring the tournament in Seoul.The average American gamer is in his 30s and well-educated.With sponsorship comes the money necessary to attract players to pursue computer gaming as a career, says Sean Plott(better known as ―Day[9]‖), an American player-turned-commentator.Intel recently sponsored a European tournament with a $15,000 prize pool.Perhaps the biggest obstacle to exporting e-sports to the West is a lingering belief that playing computer games is not a proper job—an idea that would no doubt sound familiar to pioneers of professional sports from tennis to snooker.由于電子競技面向的觀眾具有相當(dāng)?shù)南M(fèi)能力，廣告商也非常感興趣。索尼-愛麗信贊助了在首爾舉行的比賽。美國的游戲玩家平均年齡都在30歲以上，且受過良好的教育。Sean Plott（即著名選手Day[9]）曾經(jīng)是一名電競選手，現(xiàn)在改行做了解說員。他表示隨著贊助商的加入，電子競技會有更多的資金來源，也會鼓勵電腦游戲的玩家將電子競技作為自己的職業(yè)。因特爾最近就為一項歐洲電競賽事提供了15000美元贊助作為資金。也許將電子競技引入西方國家的最大障礙，是人們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為玩電腦游戲并不能算一份真正的工作。這種想法聽起來并不陌生，在網(wǎng)球和斯諾克這些職業(yè)體育的發(fā)展過程中，其行業(yè)先鋒無疑也聽到過類似的聲音。

Silver lining 銀光閃閃

Gold's poor relation is on a winning streak 黃金的窮二弟闊起來了 Sep 30th 2010

AT THE first Olympic games of the modern era in 1896, winners were awarded silver medals.Since then the metal has had to get used to second-class status.But for some time now silver prices have been outpacing those of gold(see chart), its flashier neighbour on the periodic table.On September 29th silver exceeded $22 an ounce, a price not seen since 1980 when the Hunt brothers, a pair of Texan oil barons, unwisely attempted to corner the market.Then silver spiked as high as $50 an ounce before the strategy unravelled, sending the price crashing and the Hunts back to the oil business.在1896年第一屆現(xiàn)代奧運(yùn)會上，冠軍獲得的獎牌是銀質(zhì)的。從那以后，白銀便淪為了老二的象征。不過，近來銀價上揚(yáng)之速已超過黃金（見圖，銀價一直壓著它在元素周期表上的光鮮鄰居一頭）。9月29日，銀價突破22美元/盎司。上一次白銀達(dá)到如此高度還要追溯到1980年，當(dāng)時德州石油大亨亨特兄弟（Hunt brothers）妄圖操縱銀市，使銀價一度站上了50美元/盎司。接著，他們的如意算盤破產(chǎn)，銀價隨之崩盤，兄弟倆只能回去繼續(xù)做石油生意。

The explanation for the steady rise of silver this time round is less dramatic.But high prices have a better chance of enduring.For investors, silver and gold have much of the same allure.The combination of a weak dollar, low interest rates and economic uncertainty that has convinced some to buy gold and pushed its price up to around $1,300 an ounce has also encouraged them to put their money into other likely-looking stores of value.Silver not only offers investors diversity but it is also supported by real industrial demand.此次銀價穩(wěn)步上升背后的就沒有如此精彩的故事了。但此次銀價高企可能會持續(xù)更長時間。對投資者而言，白銀與黃金吸引力相當(dāng)。弱勢美元、低利率以及經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性促使人們大筆購入黃金，將金價推上1300美元/盎司；也促使他們把錢投向與黃金相似的價值儲藏物。白銀不但可以為投資者提供多元化之選，而且其價格還受到真實(shí)產(chǎn)業(yè)需求的支持。

Whereas around 25-30% of gold is bought by investors, only about a tenth of global silver production goes the same way.Roughly half the world‘s silver goes to industrial users(the balance is accounted for by jewellery and other silverware), although their identity has undergone a huge shift over the past decade.大約25~30%的黃金是由投資者購買的，而白銀的這一比例只有大約10%。大約有一半的白銀被用于工業(yè)用途（其余則被制成首飾和銀器），不過數(shù)十年來用途不盡相同。

Old-fashioned film for cameras required mountains of silver.According to Merrill Lynch, an investment bank, photographic demand for silver has fallen by more than 60% in the past decade.Even in 2004, when the popularity of digital cameras was already well established, the photographic industry consumed 5,600 tonnes of silver, a fifth of total production.That compares with just 9% in 2009.老式膠片需要大量使用白銀。據(jù)投資銀行美林公司的數(shù)據(jù)，過去十年攝影業(yè)的白銀需求量下降了六成以上。在2004年數(shù)碼相機(jī)已開始流行時，攝影業(yè)年白銀消費(fèi)量仍高達(dá)5 600噸，相當(dāng)于產(chǎn)量的二成。到2009年已下降到9%。

New uses for the metal plugged the gap left by film.Silver is widely used in electronics, whether in buttons for TVs, in membrane switches in computer keyboards or as a coating for CDs and DVDs.But the great hope for silver is the solar-power industry.Photovoltaic cells, the technology used in 70% of solar panels, contain silver.Although other technologies that do not use silver are on the rise, heavy government subsidies are forecast to help keep the solar industry growing.新用途填補(bǔ)了膠片需求萎縮留下的空白。白銀被廣泛用于電子器件，包括電視按鈕、計算機(jī)鍵盤薄膜開關(guān)以及CD和DVD碟片涂層。但白銀的未來需求主要存在于太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)。70%的太陽能面板使用含銀的光伏電池。盡管不使用白銀的技術(shù)正在不斷發(fā)展，但政府的大幅補(bǔ)貼預(yù)計仍將助太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展。

Demand for silver is likely to keep rising in developing countries in particular: China, which used to export the metal, now imports it.The same cannot be said for supply.As Michael Lewis of Deutsche Bank points out, three-quarters of the world‘s supply comes as a by-product from copper, lead and zinc mines.So ramping up production is difficult.Total supplies of the metal in 2009, at 27,650 tonnes, were barely higher than in 2004.Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal.發(fā)展中國家對白銀的需求可能持續(xù)上升。特別是中國，已由白銀出口國變?yōu)檫M(jìn)口國。供給方的情形則非如此。德意志銀行的邁克爾?劉易斯（Michael Lewis）指出，白銀供給中有75%是銅、鉛和鋅礦開采過程中的副產(chǎn)品。因此大舉增加產(chǎn)量并不容易。2009年，白銀總供給量為27 650噸，只比2004年略高。或許未來運(yùn)動員拿塊銀牌回家也不會感到多沮喪了。

本主題由 System 于 2010-10-11 23:00 解除限時高亮評分

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Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal.或許未來運(yùn)動員拿塊銀牌回家也會感到多沮喪了。

翻譯反了吧！

Ambac's fall Ambac倒閉

And then there was one 已成過去

The bond-insurance industry struggles for survival

債券保險業(yè)掙扎求存

Nov 4th 2010

AMERICA‘S municipal-bond market is worth around $2.8 trillion.But ―monoline‖ insurers, which insure municipal bonds issued by American cities and counties, are barely breathing.On November 1st the industry edged closer to extinction when one of the largest bond insurers, Ambac, announced that it would skip an interest payment.The company could file for bankruptcy by the end of the month.美國的市政債券市場市值約為2.8萬億。但為美國市縣所發(fā)市政債券提供保險的單一險種保險公司只能茍延殘喘。11月1日，當(dāng)最大的債券保險公司之一Ambac宣布停付一期利息時，這個行業(yè)離灰飛煙滅又近了一點(diǎn)。該公司月底前可能申請破產(chǎn)。

It didn‘t need an oracle to predict Ambac‘s demise.Earlier this year a state regulator siphoned off some of Ambac‘s most toxic assets and put them into ―rehabilitation‖.Ambac has over $1.6 billion in debt, but only $76m in cash and short-term securities.One of its most coveted assets is its $7 billion ―net operating loss tax carry forward‖, which could translate into $2.5 billion in tax savings if it ever manages to turn a profit.Rob Haines of CreditSights, a research firm, does not think it will: ―Ambac is a dying company with a finite life.‖

預(yù)測Ambac的破產(chǎn)并非難事。今年早些時候，一家州監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)抽取Ambac的一些最為不良的資產(chǎn)，將它們投入―改造‖。Ambac欠下超過16億美元的債務(wù)，但只有7.6千萬的現(xiàn)金和短期證券。該公司最遭人覬覦的資產(chǎn)之一是其70億美元的―凈營業(yè)損失免稅金額‖，如果該公司有機(jī)會盈利，該免稅金額可轉(zhuǎn)換成25億美元的節(jié)稅金額。CreditSights研究公司的羅布?海恩斯（Rob Haines）認(rèn)為Ambac不會盈利：―Ambac時日無多了。‖

The prospects for other monoline insurers look equally bleak.The industry got going in the 1970s and at first provided insurance only for municipal-bond issuers, which rarely defaulted.Over the past decade, however, the industry has branched out into structured products, such as risky mortgage-backed securities and collateralised-debt obligations.Big mistake.When subprime mortgages soured, bond insurers such as Ambac and MBIA, another embattled monoline, were on the hook to pay up.Their credit ratings dropped, which meant issuers were less willing to buy insurance from them.其他單一險種保險公司的前景看來一樣慘淡。這個行業(yè)始于20世紀(jì)70年代，起出只為很少違約的市政債券發(fā)行人提供保險。但過去十年，這個行業(yè)涉足結(jié)構(gòu)化產(chǎn)品，如高風(fēng)險的按揭貸款支持證券和抵押債務(wù)債券。大錯特錯。當(dāng)次級房貸惡化時，Ambac和MBIA（另一家處境艱難的單一險種保險公司）等債券保險公司拖延償還欠款。它們的信用等級下降，意味著發(fā)行人更不愿意向它們買保險。

In 2005 bond insurers covered around 57% of new bond issuance, but now they cover a mere 7% or so.Only one monoline remains active: Assured Guaranty, which sat out most of the structured stampede.All its pre-crisis peers are either being restructured, face litigation or are out of business.Even Warren Buffett, who entered the bond-insurance market in 2008, has pulled back.―We‘re like an only child,‖ says Dominic Frederico, the boss of Assured Guaranty.―We don‘t have anybody to play with but all the toys are ours.‖ Still, life isn‘t all fun and games.Standard & Poor‘s, a ratings agency, last month stripped the firm of its AAA rating.2005年，債券保險公司覆蓋了大約57%的新債券保險，但現(xiàn)在它們僅覆蓋大約7%。只有一家單一險種保險公司仍有活力：對結(jié)構(gòu)化浪潮淺嘗輒止的Assured Guaranty。它在危機(jī)之前的所有同行要么正在重組，要么面臨訴訟，要么破產(chǎn)。即使是2008年進(jìn)入債券保險市場的沃倫?巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也撤出。―我們就像獨(dú)生子，‖ Assured Guaranty的老板多米尼克?弗雷德里克（Dominic Frederico）說，―我們沒有玩伴，但所有玩具都是我們的?！欢畈⒎侵挥袣g樂與游戲。評級機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾上月剝奪了該企業(yè)的AAA等級。

Some still believe there is hope for the industry.The National League of Cities, a non-profit organisation, thinks there should be a mutual insurance company owned and operated by local governments.But monolines will have to embrace a new model to succeed.Stanislas Rouyer of Moody‘s, another ratings agency, says monolines need to emphasise that they provide not just insurance but also monitoring and surveillance capabilities.This would enable them to sell their wares directly to retail investors, who account for 36% of the buyer base for municipal bonds.一些人仍然認(rèn)為這個行業(yè)還有希望。非營利組織全國城市聯(lián)盟（National League of Cities）認(rèn)為應(yīng)有一家由地方政府擁有和運(yùn)營的互助保險公司。但單一險種保險公司將不得不采用新模式以求成功。另一家評級機(jī)構(gòu)穆迪公司（Moody‘s）的斯丹尼斯拉斯?勞耶爾（Stanislas Rouyer）表示單一險種保險公司需要強(qiáng)調(diào)它們不僅提供保險，而且具備監(jiān)控和監(jiān)督的能力。這樣做將使它們能夠直接向占市政債券買家基數(shù)36%的散戶銷售產(chǎn)品。

There are other hurdles to jump first.The shaky finances of some municipalities could put what‘s left of the industry to another huge test.Fragile issuers and nervous investors ought to be a boon to insurers.But mass defaults by cities and counties could be the final blow for Assured Guaranty and its zombie peers.還有其他障礙尚需先行跨越。一些市政府不穩(wěn)固的財務(wù)狀況可能使這個行業(yè)剩下的公司面臨另一個巨大的考驗。脆弱的發(fā)行人和緊張的投資者應(yīng)該對保險公司有所裨益。但市縣大量違約可能成為Assured Guaranty及其毫無活力的同行的致命一擊。

Finance and Economics 財經(jīng) Oracle v SAP Oracle對陣SAP

Maintaining fees 捍衛(wèi)維護(hù)費(fèi)

A lawsuit against SAP is about more than illegal downloads 針對SAP的訟案不僅僅與非法下載有關(guān)

Nov 4th 2010

SOMETIMES a tackle says much about a match and even the entire season.This is the case with a trial that opened on November 1st, pitting the world‘s two biggest makers of corporate software, Oracle and SAP, against each other.The dispute goes back to SAP‘s purchase in 2005 of TomorrowNow, which provided maintenance services for some of Oracle‘s software.Its aim was to poach customers.But in 2007 Oracle sued SAP, alleging that TomorrowNow had made illegal downloads from its website.有時，一次阻截?fù)寯嗑妥阋哉f明一場球賽甚或整個賽季。11月1日開庭、挑起全球最大兩家企業(yè)軟件商Oracle與SAP相互火拼的訟案，就屬于這種情況。這場爭論要追溯至2005年SAP收購TomorrowNow一事，后者為某些Oracle軟件提供維護(hù)服務(wù)，意在挖走顧客。不過2007年Oracle起訴SAP，聲稱TomorrowNow從其網(wǎng)站非法下載。

SAP has since admitted that TomorrowNow had done wrong and closed it down.It will not even contest allegations that it was aware of the copyright infringement and has reportedly agreed to pay $120m in legal fees to Oracle.This essentially leaves only two questions open: the damages—SAP thinks $40m is enough;Oracle wants about $2 billion—and whether Léo Apotheker, SAP‘s former boss and now head of Hewlett-Packard(HP), will appear in court.SAP自那時起就承認(rèn)TomorrowNow行為失當(dāng)，并關(guān)閉了該公司。而面對Oracle指控自個對版權(quán)侵害心知肚明一說，SAP甚至不會辯解。并且，據(jù)說其同意向Oracle支付1.2億美元的訴訟費(fèi)。這實(shí)質(zhì)上只留下了兩個問題懸而未決。一是Oracle的損失，SAP認(rèn)為4000萬美元足夠了，而Oracle想要約20億美元；二是Léo Apotheker這位SAP前老板、HP現(xiàn)領(lǐng)袖，是否會出庭。

As a result, it will be up to another trial to answer the underlying question: what are the rules for third-party maintenance? In January Oracle sued another maintenance firm, Rimini Street.It has since countersued, accusing Oracle of anticompetitive behaviour.因此，SAP將面臨另一場訊問，要回答如下問題：第三方維護(hù)的規(guī)則是什么？今年1月，Oracle起訴了另一家軟件維護(hù)公司Rimini Street。該公司那時就提起反訴，指控Oracle的反競爭行為。

The issue is the same as with independent car-repair shops: what access to the intellectual property of the original vendor should they have? If the court favours Rimini Street and others, their business could take off.A growing number of firms are thinking about defecting from Oracle and SAP, even though they would no longer get regular updates.They are happy with their existing applications and could cut their maintenance costs in half.這個問題跟獨(dú)立汽修店面臨的問題是一樣的：這些店鋪應(yīng)通過何種途徑獲得創(chuàng)始者的知識產(chǎn)權(quán)？若法庭站到Rimini Street及其他企業(yè)一邊，這些企業(yè)就將蓬勃發(fā)展。越來越多企業(yè)正考慮背棄Oracle與SAP，即便不再獲得定期升級。它們滿意現(xiàn)有應(yīng)用，可能會削減一半維護(hù)費(fèi)。

If many customers jump ship, this would weigh heavily on the results of Oracle and SAP.Maintenance fees, usually 22% of a program‘s price per year, have become a bigger part of firms‘ technology budgets and of software vendors‘ income.For both firms, maintenance generates twice as much revenue as software sales—and all of the profits.若眾多用戶掉頭離去，將會極大影響Oracle跟SAP的業(yè)績。維護(hù)費(fèi)通常占一個程序年費(fèi)的22%，已成為企業(yè)科研預(yù)算及軟件銷售收入的大部分來源。對Oracle與SAP兩家公司而言，維護(hù)費(fèi)是軟件銷售收入的兩倍，也是全部利潤。

Yet if the TomorrowNow trial has attracted so much attention, it is also because of a new epic rivalry in the industry.It started when Oracle bought Sun Microsystems last year, becoming a direct rival to HP.Things got worse in September when Oracle hired HP‘s ex-boss, Mark Hurd, who had been pushed out the previous month.The relationship became downright hostile when HP then appointed Mr Apotheker as successor and installed as chairman, of all people, Ray Lane, who left Oracle in 2000 after falling out with its flamboyant boss, Larry Ellison.然而，倘若TomorrowNow一案吸引了如此多關(guān)注，也是因為該行業(yè)產(chǎn)生了新一輪重大對抗。這種對抗始于去年Oracle收購Sun Microsystems時，這場收購變成了一場直接針對HP的競爭。今年9月，情況變糟了，當(dāng)時Oracle雇傭了HP前老板Mark Hurd，而他上個月剛被HP炒了魷魚。HP接著任命Apotheker先生充當(dāng)繼任者，安排Ray Lane擔(dān)任董事長，而偏偏就是此人2000年與Oracle趾高氣揚(yáng)的老板Larry Ellison大吵一場后，離開了Oracle。因而此時，兩家公司間的關(guān)系變得徹頭徹尾充滿敵意。

Mr Ellison, who has shown restraint in recent years, has since rediscovered his previous more belligerent form.He compared HP‘s board to ―idiots‖ when they forced Mr Hurd out.He spoke of ―madness‖ after Mr Apotheker‘s appointment.Later he accused HP‘s new boss, who started his new job on the first day of the trial, of having ―overseen an industrial-espionage scheme‖.Ellison先生最近幾年表現(xiàn)克制，但從那時起，他又找回了從前更好斗的模樣。當(dāng)HP董事會逼迫Hurd先生離開時，他將其比作―白癡‖。在HP任命Apotheker先生后，他說這是―蠢事‖。后來，他指責(zé)HP新老板（此案開庭首日他走馬上任）正―監(jiān)管一項工業(yè)間諜活動計劃‖。

All this has entertainment value.And it may impress Wall Street.But it is unlikely to make firms buy more of Oracle‘s products.Nor will it do anything to counter the growing anger among customers of Oracle(and of SAP, for that matter)over how much they pay in maintenance fees, with so little in return.這一切充滿了娛樂價值，并會讓華爾街印象深刻，卻不大可能讓企業(yè)購買更多的Oracle產(chǎn)品。而Oracle用戶（就此事而言，SAP的用戶同樣）日益憤怒：他們付出了這么多維護(hù)費(fèi)，回報卻如此之少。要平息他們的怒氣，這一切也毫無用處。

Transparency International 透明國際 Murk meter 陰暗量表

The best-known corruption index may have run its course 最著名的腐敗指數(shù)或許已走到盡頭。

Oct 28th 2010 | BERLIN

CORRUPTION takes many forms;in some countries it is blatant, in others it is barely visible.So the idea that it can quantified on a simple scale is appealing;it gives the impression that an elusive aspect of behaviour can be pinned down.腐敗形式五花八門：它在某些國家明目張膽地存在，而在其他國家則幾乎深藏不露。因此，以一個簡單的尺度對其加以量化的想法頗具吸引力。這給人留下一種印象：一種難以捉摸的行為也可被清晰界定。

No wonder, then, that the annual corruption perceptions index(CPI), which orders countries according to the perceived degree of graft, is closely watched.But when its compilers—Transparency International(TI), an organisation based in Berlin—released their 16th annual ranking on October 26th, there was criticism as well as curiosity.于是，也難怪按被察覺到的貪腐程度對國家進(jìn)行排序的年度腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)(CPI)會受到密切關(guān)注了。不過當(dāng)其編纂者（位于柏林的透明國際組織）在10月26日發(fā)布第16份年度排名時，既引發(fā)了好奇，也招至了批評。

To be sure, TI has done a lot for the anti-corruption cause.The group has had an ―enormous impact‖, says Richard Boucher, a deputy secretary-general at the OECD, a rich-country club.The CPI was the first index comparing corruption globally.透明國際無疑已為反腐事業(yè)做出許多努力。富裕國家俱樂部——經(jīng)合組織的副秘書長理查德?鮑徹(Richard Boucher)稱透明國際已擁有 ―巨大的影響力‖。腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)是第一個在全球?qū)用嫔蠈Ω瘮〕潭冗M(jìn)行比較的指數(shù)。

But it has always been controversial.As might be expected, early complaints came from poor places which felt they were being singled out by an organisation that reflected the ethos of wealthy countries.不過這一指數(shù)始終存有爭議。正如你可能預(yù)料的那樣，早期的抱怨來自于貧困地區(qū)，這些地區(qū)感到自己受到了一個反映富裕國家精神特質(zhì)的組織的區(qū)別對待。

Now there are more subtle critiques, too.Some people take issue, for example, with the methodology based on 13 surveys of experts and business people.Its precise working varies from country to country, and it has changed over time—so that year-on-year comparisons can be misleading.如今也出現(xiàn)了更為精巧的批評。例如，某些人士反對指數(shù)的計算方法，該方法以13項針對專家和商務(wù)人士的調(diào)查為基礎(chǔ)。在不同國家，這種方法的準(zhǔn)確運(yùn)作會有差異，而且它也會隨時間變化而變化，因此同比結(jié)果可能具有誤導(dǎo)性。

The CPI highlights the general level of corruption, but offers little clue about which aspects are most serious, or how to fight it.Frustration has grown with the idea that ―a single number for a whole country is enough‖, says Nathaniel Heller of Global Integrity, an anti-corruption outfit.腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)強(qiáng)調(diào)了腐敗的整體水平，但卻沒有為哪些領(lǐng)域腐敗最盛或應(yīng)如何打擊腐敗提供多少信息。反腐敗組織——環(huán)球廉正(Global Integrity)的納撒尼爾?海勒(Nathaniel Heller)表示，對于那種認(rèn)為―就整個國家而言，一個數(shù)據(jù)便足夠了‖的想法，人們已產(chǎn)生受挫感。

The CPI ―has more than run its course‖, in the view of Claudio Weber Abramo, director of Transparência Brasil, a former chapter that left the TI umbrella in 2007.在透明巴西(Transparência Brasil)主席克勞迪奧?韋伯?阿布拉莫(Claudio Weber Abramo)看來，腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)―已經(jīng)過時‖。該組織曾是透明國際組織網(wǎng)中的一個分支，但已于2007年退出。

TI is aware of the index‘s shortcomings.The CPI, it says, is ―an annual snapshot‖ with ―less of a focus on year-on-year trends‖.Yet the group stands by its ranking.―We are comfortable we have an important tool—but it is only one tool‖, says Huguette Labelle, TI‘s chair.透明國際明白指數(shù)所存有的缺陷。該組織指出，腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)是一種―較少聚焦于同比趨勢‖的―年度快照‖。不過該組織仍支持自己的排序。透明國際主席胡吉特?拉貝勒(Huguette Labelle)表示：―我們?yōu)樽约簱碛幸环N重要工具而感到安心——不過這只是一種工具‖。

TI is far from a one-trick pony.It now focuses on boosting international accords and helping enforce them.At the local level, it also does much more than in the past.In some developing countries, legal advice centres help victims of corruption.Still, the CPI looms large, and the organisation faces a dilemma.The index gets a much-needed attention, but it overshadows other activities and exposes it to criticism.If TI had the courage to ditch its score-card, or at least publish it in a less misleading form, its other work might fare better.透明國際遠(yuǎn)非黔驢技窮之輩。目前，該組織正在關(guān)注推動國際協(xié)議并助其實(shí)施。而在地區(qū)層面上，該組織的所作所為也比以往多上許多。在一些發(fā)展中國家，法律咨詢中心向腐敗受害者伸出援手。不過，腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)影響巨大，透明國際正面臨著兩難局面。這一指數(shù)既贏得了其所急需的關(guān)注，卻又蓋住了其他活動的風(fēng)頭，并將自己推至風(fēng)口浪尖。如果透明國際有勇氣拋棄這塊記分牌，或者至少是以一種誤導(dǎo)性較小的方式加以發(fā)布的話，該組織其他工作的進(jìn)展或許就將更加順利。

Broadband in America 美國寬帶業(yè)

Come sooner, future 快來吧，未來

Verizon has paid dearly to build a fast network.Now it needs customers Verizon公司付出了高昂代價建設(shè)高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)?，F(xiàn)在，它亟需用戶

Oct 28th 2010

VERIZON can get shirty about the word ―fibre‖.America‘s second-biggest telecoms operator successfully complained to the Better Business Bureau that competitors had touted ―fibre-optic fast‖ to consumers, even though their broadband networks did not run fibre all the way to the home, as Verizon does.This is not just a techies‘ argument.By an order of magnitude, an all-fibre network is the fastest way to move information from one place to another on the internet and Verizon has the largest such network in America.The difficult bit is making money from it.Verizon可能生―纖‖字的氣。因為這家美國第二大電信運(yùn)營商向商業(yè)促進(jìn)局申訴成功，稱其競爭者的寬帶網(wǎng)即便并未如自己那般從頭至尾光纖延伸入戶，卻紛紛向消費(fèi)者兜售―光纖高速‖。這并非只是憤憤之辭。就數(shù)量級而言，全光網(wǎng)是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)信息異地遷移速度最快的方式，而Verizon擁有美國最大的全光網(wǎng)。難點(diǎn)在于用它賺錢。

The company is betting that highbandwidth web services will create a huge demand for fast networks—and profits.But that is in the future.In Japan and South Korea, two other countries with fast networks, the government has subsidised the laying of new fibre.In America, which has relied on private investment, Verizon is having to shoulder more of the risk.該公司正打賭，高帶寬網(wǎng)絡(luò)業(yè)務(wù)將創(chuàng)造對高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)的巨大需求，并產(chǎn)生巨額利潤。不過，這尚未到來。擁有高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)的日韓兩國，政府補(bǔ)貼新光纖鋪設(shè)。而在依賴私人投資的美國，Verizon不得不承受更多風(fēng)險。

The reason why the company was so keen to build a fast network goes back to how America was wired originally.In the beginning there was copper wire, which telephone companies ran to almost every house.Then, in the 1980s, cable-television companies secured local monopolies to provide coaxial cable as well.該公司熱衷高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)建設(shè)的原因，要追溯至美國當(dāng)初如何布線。起初是銅線，電話公司鋪至幾乎每家每戶。接著，在上世紀(jì)八十年代，有線電視公司獲得了本地壟斷權(quán)，也布設(shè)了同軸電纜。

At first the two networks had a fair fight, delivering the internet at about the same speed.No network, however, can run faster than the speed of its ―last mile‖, from the neighbourhood node to the house.This is the most expensive place to lay networks and the last mile of cable is faster than a copper wire.So the telephone companies would, eventually, be unable to deliver the internet as fast as their cable competitors.最初，這兩種網(wǎng)絡(luò)公平競爭，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)傳輸速度大致相同。然而，沒有網(wǎng)絡(luò)能快過其―最后一英里‖（即從小區(qū)節(jié)點(diǎn)至用戶家里那段）的速度。這是網(wǎng)絡(luò)布設(shè)造價最貴之處，而電纜最后一英里比銅線快。因此電話公司也許最終，其互聯(lián)網(wǎng)傳輸速度不能像有線競爭者那樣快。

Verizon, formed in 2000 out of several regional telephone companies, decided to create a third network.Since 2004 it has strung optic fibre to 60% of the homes where it already had copper wires, mainly in Texas, California and on the East Coast.Verizon calls its new network ―FiOS‖.It cost about $23 billion to build and, according to Sanford Bernstein, an investment firm, contributed to the $32 billion debt of Verizon‘s wireline division.2000年成立、由幾家區(qū)域電話公司組成的Verizon，決定創(chuàng)建第三種網(wǎng)絡(luò)。2004年來，光纖拉進(jìn)了60%已鋪有銅線的家庭（主要在德克薩斯、加利福尼亞及東海岸地區(qū)）。Verizon稱其新網(wǎng)絡(luò)為―FiOS‖。其建設(shè)費(fèi)約230億美元，而據(jù)投資公司Sanford Bernstein的數(shù)據(jù)，這導(dǎo)致Verizon有線部門負(fù)債320億美元。

To counter FiOS, the cable companies have run fibre to the neighbourhood node, from where the connection continues to the home through their existing cable.This technology now reaches more than 70% of homes(see chart)and, unlike Verizon, the cable companies did not have to pay to replace the last mile.為抗衡FiOS，有線公司已將光纖延伸至小區(qū)節(jié)點(diǎn)，從這兒繼續(xù)用其現(xiàn)有電纜連接至用戶家里。該技術(shù)現(xiàn)抵達(dá)了超過70%的家庭（如圖所示），且與Verizon不同，有線公司無須掏錢更換最后一英里網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

Basic copper and cable internet access cannot run faster than about 5 megabits per second, which is just about fast enough to watch something on YouTube or for a video chat over Skype.But networks seldom run as fast as advertised.The cable networks upgraded with fibre can run at speeds in the hundreds of megabits per second, enough to handle most present-day applications and many in the immediate future, like high-definition video.Yet Verizon‘s network could leave these in the dust.In tests in Massachusetts its fibre network has run as fast as 10,000 megabits per second, and it could go faster.基本的銅線及電纜互聯(lián)網(wǎng)接入速度不超過5Mbits/s，僅夠看YouTube或Skype視頻聊天。不過，網(wǎng)速鮮有宣傳得那樣快。光纖升級后的有線網(wǎng)絡(luò)，網(wǎng)速達(dá)幾百兆每秒，足以應(yīng)付現(xiàn)在的大部分應(yīng)用，而在不遠(yuǎn)的將來出現(xiàn)的許多應(yīng)用，如高清視頻，處理起來也綽綽有余。然而，Verizon的網(wǎng)絡(luò)將令上述網(wǎng)絡(luò)望塵莫及，在馬薩諸塞州進(jìn)行的試驗中，其光纖網(wǎng)速高達(dá)10Gbits/s,還能更快。

This puts Verizon in a tricky position.Its old copper network, still 40% of its customer base, is not fast enough but FiOS is faster than most consumers need.So the company is having to weather the transition to a time when faster networks become more important.On October 22nd Verizon said that its overall revenue, at $26.5 billion in the third quarter, was 2.9% down on the same period a year ago.Its mobile-phone division performed strongly, with revenue rising by 6%, to $16.3 billion.But its wireline business remained under pressure: revenue fell by 3.6% in the period and operating profit slumped by 90%.這令Verizon處境棘手。仍有40%客戶基礎(chǔ)的舊有銅線網(wǎng)速不夠快，但FiOS卻快得超過了大部分用戶所需。因此該公司現(xiàn)在不得不挨過這一過渡期，直到高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)日漸重要的那一天。10月22日，Verizon稱今年第三季度總收入達(dá)265億美元，較去年同期下降2.9%。其移動電話部門表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁，收入增加了6%，達(dá)163億美元。但其有線業(yè)務(wù)仍面臨壓力：這一時期收入下跌3.6%，營業(yè)利潤大幅下滑90%。

For now, Verizon has halted new investment in fibre while it tries to drum up more customers for FiOS.And for the long term it is trying to create demand for an even faster internet.Verizon has suggested that it be allowed to offer companies super-fast, premium access to its network while continuing to provide what it calls ―the open internet‖ to its customers.Verizon sees its fast network supplying programmes to 100-inch television screens and providing 3-D online gaming.More speed-demanding video games are coming(see article).The company has also been discussing linking medical devices in hospitals and doctors‘ surgeries.It is building connections to intelligent power grids, which businesses and homes could use to reduce their energy bills.For Verizon, the future cannot come fast enough.目前，Verizon暫停往光纖上再投資，同時設(shè)法力爭更多FiOS顧客。而長期以來，它一直試圖創(chuàng)造同樣的高速互聯(lián)網(wǎng)需求。Verizon表明，它應(yīng)獲準(zhǔn)向企業(yè)提供高速、優(yōu)惠的網(wǎng)絡(luò)接入，同時繼續(xù)向用戶提供其所稱的―開放式互聯(lián)網(wǎng)‖。Verizon考慮讓其高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)提供100英寸電視屏幕節(jié)目及3D網(wǎng)絡(luò)游戲。更多苛求速度的視頻游戲正在涌現(xiàn)。該公司也一直在談?wù)撚酶咚倬W(wǎng)絡(luò)連接醫(yī)院醫(yī)療設(shè)備及醫(yī)生手術(shù)室。它正構(gòu)建智能電網(wǎng)連接，企業(yè)及家庭用戶可用其削減能源開銷。對Verizon而言，未來來得還不夠快。Born digital 數(shù)碼人生

National libraries start to preserve the web, but cannot save everything 各國的圖書館開始保存網(wǎng)站，但不能面面俱到 Oct 21st 2010

The library of the future

IN THE digital realm, things seem always to happen the wrong way round.Whereas Google has hurried to scan books into its digital catalogue, a group of national libraries has begun saving what the online giant leaves behind.For although search engines such as Google index the web, they do not archive it.Many websites just disappear when their owner runs out of money or interest.Adam Farquhar, in charge of digital projects for the British Library, points out that the world has in some ways a better record of the beginning of the 20th century than of the beginning of the 21st.在數(shù)碼界，出乎意料的事情屢見不鮮。當(dāng)谷歌忙于將書籍掃描成數(shù)字文檔時，各國圖書館已經(jīng)開始保存這個在線巨人漏掉的資料。盡管谷歌這類搜索引擎提供網(wǎng)站的索引服務(wù)，但并沒有把網(wǎng)站保存起來。很多網(wǎng)站因其所有人缺乏資金或失去興趣而曇花一現(xiàn)。Adam Farquhar負(fù)責(zé)大英博物館的數(shù)字項目，他指出在某種程度上全世界對20世紀(jì)初期的記錄比21世紀(jì)初期的記錄要好。

In 1996 Brewster Kahle, a computer scientist and internet entrepreneur, founded the Internet Archive, a non-profit organisation dedicated to preserving websites.He also began gently harassing national libraries to worry about preserving the web.They started to pay attention when several elections produced interesting material that never touched paper.在1996年，一個名為Brewster Kahle的計算機(jī)科學(xué)家和因特網(wǎng)企業(yè)家，成立了英特網(wǎng)檔案室，這是一個非營利性的組織，致力于網(wǎng)站的保存。他也開始委婉地敦促各國的圖書館關(guān)注保存網(wǎng)站的問題。幾輪選舉中出現(xiàn)很多有意義材料，但從未以書面形式保留下來時，此時，各國圖書館開始關(guān)注這一問題。

In 2003 eleven national libraries and the Internet Archive launched a project to preserve ―born-digital‖ information: the kind that has never existed as anything but digitally.Called the International Internet Preservation Consortium(IIPC), it now includes 39 large institutional libraries.But the task is impossible.One reason is the sheer amount of data on the web.The groups have already collected several petabytes of data(a petabyte can hold roughly 10 trillion copies of this article).2003年，11家各國圖書館和因特網(wǎng)檔案室啟動一個保護(hù)數(shù)碼信息的項目：此類信息沒有以數(shù)碼之外的任何其他形式存在過。這個稱為―國際因特網(wǎng)保護(hù)聯(lián)合體‖的項目，現(xiàn)有39家大型機(jī)構(gòu)圖書館。但是這一任務(wù)幾乎無法完成。理由之一是網(wǎng)絡(luò)上的數(shù)據(jù)量極其龐大。這些團(tuán)體已經(jīng)收集了幾拍（petabytes）的數(shù)據(jù)（一拍大約能裝下10萬億篇本文）。

Another issue is ensuring that the data is stored in a format that makes it available in centuries to come.Ancient manuscripts are still readable.But much digital media from the past is readable only on a handful of fragile and antique machines, if at all.The IIPC has set a single format, making it more likely that future historians will be able to find a machine to read the data.But a single solution cannot capture all content.Web publishers increasingly serve up content-rich pages based on complex data sets.Audio and video programmes based on proprietary formats such as Windows Media Player are another challenge.What happens if Microsoft is bankrupt and forgotten in 2210? 另一個問題是如何確?，F(xiàn)在儲存數(shù)據(jù)的格式，在幾個世紀(jì)之后依然存在。古代的一些書稿人們到今天還能讀。但是很多過去的數(shù)字媒體，即使勉強(qiáng)能讀，也僅限于為數(shù)不多的幾臺老掉牙的機(jī)器。國際因特網(wǎng)保護(hù)聯(lián)合體已經(jīng)單獨(dú)創(chuàng)立一種格式，讓未來的歷史學(xué)家更有可能找到讀取這些數(shù)據(jù)的機(jī)器。但一種解決方案不能抓取所有內(nèi)容。網(wǎng)站發(fā)布工具越來越多地按照數(shù)據(jù)的復(fù)雜程度提供內(nèi)容豐富的網(wǎng)頁。以各類專有格式（如windows media player)儲存的音頻和視頻內(nèi)容也是個大問題。萬一2210年微軟破產(chǎn)或無人知曉怎么辦？

The biggest problem, for now, is money.The British Library estimates that it costs half as much to store a digital document as it does a physical one.But there are a lot more digital ones.America‘s Library of Congress enjoys a specific mandate, and budget, to save the web.The British Library is still seeking one.現(xiàn)在面臨的最大問題是錢。大英博物館估計儲存數(shù)字文件的花費(fèi)是儲存物理文件的一半。但是數(shù)字內(nèi)容要多很多。美國國會圖書館很幸運(yùn)，因為國家有具體的保護(hù)網(wǎng)站的命令和預(yù)算。大英博物館還在爭取這種命令。

So national libraries have decided to split the task.Each has taken responsibility for the digital works in its national top-level domain(web-address suffixes such as ―.uk‖ or ―.fr‖).In countries with larger domains, such as Britain and America, curators cannot hope to save everything.They are concentrating on material of national interest, such as elections, news sites and citizen journalism or innovative uses of the web.因此，各國的圖書館決定共同完成這個任務(wù)。它們分別承擔(dān)其頂級域名內(nèi)的數(shù)字作品（如后綴為―.uk‖或―.fr‖的網(wǎng)址）。如果某些國家域名龐大，如英國和美國，館長們不要指望把什么都保存下來。他們需要重點(diǎn)處理關(guān)系國計民生的材料，如選舉、新聞網(wǎng)站和公民的報章雜志或創(chuàng)意使用網(wǎng)站的方法。

The daily death of countless websites has brought a new sense of urgency—and forced libraries to adapt culturally as well.Past practice was to tag every new document as it arrived.Now precision must be sacrificed to scale and speed.The task started before standards, goals or budgets are set.And they may yet change.Just like many websites, libraries will be stuck in what is known as ―permanent beta‖.每天，都有無數(shù)網(wǎng)站消失，更讓人感到時間緊迫——圖書館也不得不根據(jù)社會文化需要，靈活處理。過去習(xí)慣做法是凡是新文件，一一標(biāo)注保存?，F(xiàn)在則必須犧牲準(zhǔn)確性換取規(guī)模和速度。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、目標(biāo)或預(yù)算都沒確定，就開始工作了。而標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、任務(wù)、預(yù)算還可能變更。同很多網(wǎng)站一樣，圖書館也將陷入所謂―永久試用‖的境地。

譯者注：

本文不長，語言相對簡單，但要譯出―韻味‖，還是不容易。我覺得有幾點(diǎn)需要大家尤其注意： 1.大意的把握。兩方面內(nèi)容，保存什么？保存的是網(wǎng)站內(nèi)容，不是某個網(wǎng)頁。誰來保存？各國的圖書館，這不是一個國家的圖書館能做得了的工作。這兩點(diǎn)弄不好，文中web、national libraries就不好翻。某些具體語句的把握。除了要翻出意思，還要翻出感情色彩。就拿開頭一句―things seem always to happen the wrong way round‖來說，有人翻成―倒行逆施‖，這就說明譯者沒有理解中文的倒行逆施有―貶義‖，用來形容某個不得人心、逆歷史潮流而動的做法等，感情色彩很濃厚。而本文則沒有這種強(qiáng)烈的情緒，因此，我認(rèn)為―出乎意料的事情屢見不鮮‖、―事情的發(fā)展總是讓人摸不透‖等比較貼切，看似―不準(zhǔn)確‖，其實(shí)意思出來了。

Virtual outsourcing 虛擬外包業(yè)

Mobile work 移動工作

A way to earn money by texting 發(fā)短信賺錢之法

Oct 28th 2010 | new york

Mobile worker 移動工作者 THE idea came to Nathan Eagle, a research scientist with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, when he was doing a teaching stint in rural Kenya.He realised that, as three-quarters of the 4.6 billion mobile-phone users worldwide live in developing countries, a useful piece of technology is now being placed in the hands of a large number of people who might be keen to use their devices to make some money.To help them do so, he came up with a service called txteagle which distributes small jobs via text messaging in return for small payments.麻省理工學(xué)院研究員Nathan Eagle在肯尼亞鄉(xiāng)下進(jìn)行短期教學(xué)時，冒出了這一念頭。他意識到，全世界46億手機(jī)用戶有四分之三生活在發(fā)展中國家，因而一項實(shí)用技術(shù)，此刻正掌握在大量或許渴望用自己手機(jī)賺錢的人手中。為幫助他們那樣做，Eagle先生想出了一種叫做txteagle的業(yè)務(wù)，可以靠發(fā)文字短信分發(fā)零活來換取小額報酬。

Only 18% of people in the developing world have access to the internet, but more than 50% owned a mobile-phone handset at the end of 2009(a number which has more than doubled since 2005), according to the International Telecommunication Union.One study shows that adding ten mobile phones per 100 people in a typical developing country boosts growth in GDP per person by 0.8 percentage points.根據(jù)國際電信聯(lián)盟的數(shù)據(jù)，2009年底，發(fā)展中國家僅有18%的人接入了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，卻有超過一半的人擁有手機(jī)（這一數(shù)據(jù)自2005年以來增加了一倍以上）。一項研究表明，在一個典型的發(fā)展中國家，每百人增加十部手機(jī)，會使人均GDP提升0.8個百分點(diǎn)。

Mr Eagle hopes txteagle will do its bit by mobile ―crowdsourcing‖—breaking down jobs into small tasks and sending them to lots of individuals.These jobs often involve local knowledge and range from things like checking what street signs say in rural Sudan for a satellite-navigation service to translating words into a Kenyan dialect for companies trying to spread their marketing.A woman living in rural Brazil or India may have limited access to work, adds Mr Eagle, ―but she can still use her mobile phone to collect local price and product data or even complete market-research surveys.‖ Payments are transferred to a user‘s phone by a mobile money service, such as the M-PESA system run by Safaricom in Africa, or by providing additional calling credit.Eagle先生希望txteagle業(yè)務(wù)通過移動―眾包‖（將工作拆分成零星任務(wù)后派發(fā)給眾多個體）有所貢獻(xiàn)。這些工作通常牽涉本地知識，涵蓋各種事情，如為一種衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航業(yè)務(wù)核對種種路標(biāo)在蘇丹鄉(xiāng)下表明什么，為那些試圖擴(kuò)展市場的公司將文字翻譯為肯尼亞土語。一位住在巴西或印度鄉(xiāng)下的婦女，或許工作機(jī)會有限，Eagle先生補(bǔ)充道，―但她仍能用自己的手機(jī)搜集當(dāng)?shù)貎r格及產(chǎn)品數(shù)據(jù)，甚或完成市場調(diào)研?！瑘蟪晖ㄟ^一種手機(jī)錢包業(yè)務(wù)（比如非洲Safaricom移動通信公司運(yùn)營的M-PESA移動轉(zhuǎn)賬系統(tǒng)）轉(zhuǎn)到用戶手機(jī)上，或者打入額外的手機(jī)預(yù)付費(fèi)。

Working with over 220 mobile operators, txteagle is able to reach 2 billion subscribers in 80 countries.It already has the largest contract-labour force in Kenya and new ways of using it are being found all the time.Recently a large media firm asked Mr Eagle for help in monitoring its television commercials across Africa.The company was concerned that, although it had paid for broadcasting rights, its ads could be replaced with others by local television companies.So txteagle pays locals to watch and then text notes about which ads are shown.―I would never think of that myself,‖ says Mr Eagle.Which is why he is not sure just how big all these small text jobs could become.txteagle業(yè)務(wù)與220多個移動運(yùn)營商合作，能到達(dá)80個國家的20億訂戶。在肯尼亞已擁有了最大的包工力量，新的使用方式一直層出不窮。最近一家媒體巨頭向Eagle先生求助，監(jiān)視其在非洲全境的電視商業(yè)廣告。該公司擔(dān)心，盡管其已為播映權(quán)掏了錢，但自個的廣告卻可能被當(dāng)?shù)仉娨暪镜膹V告替換。于是txteagle業(yè)務(wù)付錢給當(dāng)?shù)厝擞^察哪些廣告播出了，然后用文字標(biāo)注。Eagle說，―我自己決不會想到這個法子?！淮_定所有這些零星的文字工作究竟會變成多大的力量，而這就是原因。The Big Mac index 巨無霸指數(shù) An indigestible problem 難題

Why China needs more expensive burgers 為什么說中國的巨無霸太便宜了 Oct 14th 2010 | Hong kong

A WEAK currency, despite its appeal to exporters and politicians, is no free lunch.But it can provide a cheap one.In China, for example, a McDonald‘s Big Mac costs just 14.5 yuan on average in Beijing and Shenzhen, the equivalent of $2.18 at market exchange rates.In America, in contrast, the same burger averages $3.71.出口商和政客所吁求的弱勢貨幣絕非免費(fèi)的午餐。不過它確實(shí)可以使午餐變得很便宜。比如說，在中國的北京和深圳，一個麥當(dāng)勞巨無霸漢堡平均只需14.5元人民幣即可買到，按市場匯率計算，相當(dāng)于2.18美元。而在美國，相同的漢堡要賣到3.71美元。

That makes China‘s yuan one of the most undervalued currencies in the Big Mac index, our gratifyingly simple guide to currency misalignments, updated this week(see chart).The index is based on the idea of purchasing-power parity, which says that a currency‘s price should reflect the amount of goods and services it can buy.Since 14.5 yuan can buy as much burger as $3.71, a yuan should be worth $0.26 on the foreign-exchange market.In fact, it costs just $0.15, suggesting that it is undervalued by about 40%.這使得人民幣成為本周巨無霸指數(shù)——本刊的實(shí)用單一貨幣失調(diào)指標(biāo)——中最被低估的貨幣（見圖）。巨無霸指數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)是購買力平價，即一種貨幣的價格應(yīng)該反映它所能買到的商品和服務(wù)。14.5元人民幣可以買到3.71美元的漢堡，因此1元人民幣應(yīng)該在外匯市場中價值0.26美元。而事實(shí)上1元人民幣只能兌換0.15美元，這意味著人民幣被低估了40%。

The tensions caused by such misalignments prompted Brazil‘s finance minister, Guido Mantega, to complain last month that his country was a potential casualty of a ―currency war‖.Perhaps it was something he ate.In Brazil a Big Mac costs the equivalent of $5.26, implying that the real is now overvalued by 42%.The index also suggests that the euro is overvalued by about 29%.And the Swiss, who avoid most wars, are in the thick of this one.Their franc is the most expensive currency on our list.The Japanese are so far the only rich country to intervene directly in the markets to weaken their currency.But according to burgernomics, the yen is only 5% overvalued, not much of a casus belli.在貨幣失調(diào)所造成的國際緊張局面面前，巴西財政部長曼特加（Guido Mantega）上個月發(fā)出了巴西是―貨幣戰(zhàn)爭‖潛在受害者的感嘆。或許他是在抱怨自己吃的東西太貴了。在巴西，一個巨無霸漢堡的價格相當(dāng)于5.26美元，表明雷亞爾被高估了42%。巨無霸指數(shù)還顯示歐元被高估了29%。而傳統(tǒng)的中立國瑞士這次站在了貨幣戰(zhàn)爭最前線。瑞士法郎已成為指數(shù)中最昂貴的貨幣。日本是目前唯一直接干預(yù)貨幣市場使本國貨幣貶值的發(fā)達(dá)國家。但從我們的漢堡經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)視角來看，日元只被高估了5%，顯然不能作為發(fā)動貨幣戰(zhàn)的借口。

If a currency war is in the offing, America‘s congressmen seem increasingly determined to arm themselves.A bill passed by the House of Representatives last month would treat undervalued currencies as an illegal export subsidy and allow American firms to request countervailing tariffs.The size of those tariffs would reflect the scale of the undervaluation.貨幣戰(zhàn)爭是否一觸即發(fā)姑且不論，美國的國會議員們似乎是鐵了心要開始武裝戒備了。上個月，眾議院通過了一項法令，將被低估的貨幣視同非法出口補(bǔ)貼，美國公司有權(quán)要求征收抵消性關(guān)稅。具體的稅率體現(xiàn)了被低估的程度。

How does the bill propose to calculate this misalignment? It relies not on Big Macs, but on the less digestible methods favoured by the IMF.The fund uses three related approaches.First, it calculates the real exchange rate that would steadily bring a country‘s current-account balance(equivalent to the trade balance plus a few other things)into line with a ―norm‖ based on the country‘s growth, income per person, demography and budget balance.這一法令通過什么方法計算貨幣失調(diào)程度呢？不是巨無霸指數(shù)，而是IMF所慣用的深奧算法。IMF使用三種相互關(guān)聯(lián)的手段來計算匯率。一是根據(jù)使一國經(jīng)常項目收支（相當(dāng)于貿(mào)易收支在加上少數(shù)其他項目）與―標(biāo)準(zhǔn)‖（由該國增長率、人均收入、人口和財政收支等因素決定）相匹配的原則來計算真實(shí)匯率。

The fund‘s second approach ignores current-account balances and instead calculates a direct statistical relationship between the real exchange rate and things like a country‘s terms of trade(the price of its exports compared with its imports), its productivity and its foreign assets and liabilities.The strength of Brazil‘s currency, for example, may partly reflect the high price of exports such as soyabeans.第二種算法忽略經(jīng)常項目收支，而是計算一國真實(shí)匯率與該國進(jìn)出口比價（出口品價格與進(jìn)口品價格之比）、生產(chǎn)力、對外資產(chǎn)負(fù)債情況等因素的直接統(tǒng)計關(guān)系。比如，巴西里亞爾的強(qiáng)勢一定程度上是拜其出口品（如大豆）價格較高所賜。

Third, the fund also calculates the exchange rate that would stabilise the country‘s foreign assets and liabilities at a reasonable level.If, for example, a country runs sizeable trade surpluses, resulting in a rapid build-up of foreign assets, it probably has an undervalued exchange rate.三是計算使一國對外資產(chǎn)和負(fù)債穩(wěn)定在合理水平的匯率。比如，如果某國有著巨大的貿(mào)易盈余，因而對外資產(chǎn)迅速囤積，那么該國貨幣就有可能是被低估的。

The IMF has typically assessed its members‘ policies one at a time.But the fund‘s managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, now proposes to assess its biggest members all at once to make sure their macroeconomic strategies do not work at cross-purposes.He is keen to identify the ways in which a country‘s policies, including its exchange-rate policies, ―spill over‖ to its neighbours.在通常情況下，IMF會逐一評估各成員國的政策。但總干事多米尼克?斯特勞斯-卡恩（Dominique Strauss-Kahn）最近建議同時評估所有最重要成員國，以確保它們的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)策略目標(biāo)不會相互沖突。卡恩急切地想弄明白一國的政策——包括匯率政策在內(nèi)——是如何―溢出‖從而影響到鄰國的。

Those spillovers depend on the size of the economy as much as the scale of any misalignments.But the biggest economies are also the hardest to bully.The fund‘s last annual report on the Chinese economy, in July, included the government‘s rebuttal of every criticism the fund offered.In a decorous compromise the report concluded that the yuan was ―substantially‖ undervalued but refrained from quantifying the size of the problem.溢出效應(yīng)既取決于失調(diào)的嚴(yán)重程度，也取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的大小。但大經(jīng)濟(jì)體通常也是強(qiáng)硬派。在IMF最新一期的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)年報（7月發(fā)布）中，中國政府逐條反駁了IMF提出的所有批評。IMF只能作出適當(dāng)讓步，僅僅稱人民幣被―顯著‖低估了，而沒有給出到底低估多少的具體數(shù)字。

Big revaluations of the kind required to satisfy the fund or equalise the price of burgers are unlikely.A recent study of the Big Mac index by Kenneth Clements, Yihui Lan and Shi Pei Seah of the University of Western Australia showed that misalignments are remarkably persistent.As a result, the raw index did a poor job of predicting exchange rates: undervalued currencies remain too cheap and overvalued currencies remain too pricey.要被低估的貨幣一下子升值到符合IMF的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)或者使巨無霸漢堡價格一致的水平是不可能的。西澳大利亞大學(xué)的肯尼斯?克萊門茨（Kenneth Clements）、Yihui Lan和Shi Pei Seah對巨無霸指數(shù)的最新研究表明，失調(diào)具有明顯的持久性。因此，原始指數(shù)無法很好地預(yù)測匯率走勢：被低估的貨幣通常會持續(xù)低估，而被高估的貨幣則持續(xù)高估。

But since this bias is systematic, it can be identified and removed.Once that is done, the three economists show that a reconstituted index is good at predicting real exchange rates over horizons of a year or more.Since The Economist costs just $6.99(a little less than two burgers)on the news-stand, the index provides decent value for money for would-be currency speculators, the authors conclude.The Big Mac index may itself be undervalued.但這一偏差是系統(tǒng)性的，因此可以被識別和移除。只要修正這一偏差，三位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家顯示，改進(jìn)的巨無霸指數(shù)就可以很好地在年及年以上時間單位上預(yù)測匯率走勢。鑒于本刊報攤零售價不過6.99美元（還不到兩個漢堡的價錢），筆者認(rèn)為我們的指數(shù)對欲從事貨幣投機(jī)者來說絕對物超所值。也許巨無霸指數(shù)本身也被低估了。Microsoft's mobile operating system 微軟的移動操作系統(tǒng)

Windows or curtains（注1）良機(jī)還是死路？

The software giant is desperate to make a splash in the smart-phone business 軟件巨頭孤注一擲，想要在智能電話行業(yè)大展拳腳

Oct 7th 2010 | San Francisco

AT A company meeting last year, Steve Ballmer, Microsoft‘s pugnacious boss, spied an employee taking a photo on an Apple iPhone.He promptly grabbed the offending device and pretended to stamp on it.Microsoft would love to crush competitors in the smart-phone market, but it has repeatedly failed to come up with compelling offerings of its own.Now the software firm is gearing up for another assault on a business that is crucial to its future.去年，在一次公司會議上，斗志旺盛的微軟老板斯蒂夫?鮑爾默，發(fā)現(xiàn)一名雇員正在用蘋果的iPhone拍照。他一把奪過這臺令其不快的設(shè)備，作勢猛踩。微軟巴不得擊垮智能電話市場上的對手，卻一而再再而三地、未能整出強(qiáng)有力的產(chǎn)品。現(xiàn)在，這家軟件公司正憋足了勁，要在智能手機(jī)行業(yè)發(fā)起又一輪出擊，該行業(yè)對其未來至關(guān)緊要。

On October 11th Microsoft is due to unveil phones from manufacturers such as HTC and Samsung that incorporate its new operating system, Windows Phone 7(WP7).An accompanying media blitz will seek to position it as an attractive alternative to Apple‘s iPhone, Google‘s Android and Symbian, which powers many Nokia phones(see chart).The stakes are high for Microsoft and for Mr Ballmer, whose stewardship of the firm is the subject of intense debate.Microsoft‘s share price has fallen by almost 20% since the beginning of this year, while the S&P 500 stockmarket index has risen by 4%.10月11日，微軟打算揭曉幾款含有其新操作系統(tǒng)WP7的手機(jī)（由諸如HTC與三星等制造商生產(chǎn)）。隨之而來的媒體廣告狂轟濫炸，試圖將此操作系統(tǒng)定位成蘋果iPhone、谷歌Android及驅(qū)動許多諾基亞電話的塞班系統(tǒng)的替代物（如圖所示）。無論對于微軟還是因公司管理工作而飽受非議的鮑爾默先生來說，這一賭注的風(fēng)險都極高。今年初以來，微軟的股價下跌了近20%，而標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500股價指數(shù)卻上漲了4%。

Microsoft hopes not only to profit from selling licences for its software but also to push its other services via the phones.Bing, the firm‘s internet search engine, Xbox Live, its gaming platform, and Zune, its music and video player, are baked into the new operating system.Microsoft is also betting that WP7 will help it preserve its once vice-like grip on the workplace.That hold is slipping as firms let employees toting iPhones and Android-based devices use them for work.微軟不僅希望從軟件授權(quán)銷售中獲利，也期望通過這種智能手機(jī)推銷別的業(yè)務(wù)。該公司的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)搜索引擎Bing，游戲平臺Xbox Live，及音樂視頻播放器Zune，均植入了這款新操作系統(tǒng)。微軟也打賭說，WP7將幫助其捍衛(wèi)昔日在工作場所中堅不可摧的掌控地位。由于許多公司讓雇員配備iPhone及基于Android系統(tǒng)的設(shè)備用于工作，這種掌控正慢慢松弛。

The new phones boast a slick touch-screen interface and several novel features, including one that makes it easier than on most smart-phones to post news and photos to social networks on the move.Microsoft has also laid down minimum standards to which phonemakers must adhere for things such as built-in cameras.Some earlier Windows phones suffered from poor hardware.―There isn‘t a thing about our approach to this business that we haven‘t changed,‖ says Greg Sullivan, a Microsoft executive.這種新電話自詡擁有平滑流暢的觸摸屏界面及數(shù)個新穎的特點(diǎn)，其中之一，是人們移動時用其發(fā)布新聞及照片到社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)上，要比其它大部分智能手機(jī)更為輕松方便。微軟也制定了電話制造商必須支持的某些事物如內(nèi)置攝像頭的最低標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。早期的某些Windows系統(tǒng)手機(jī)深受工藝落后的硬件之苦。―我們進(jìn)入這個行業(yè)，沒有什么是一成不變的，‖微軟高級主管格雷格?沙利文說。

The firm is also expected to spend enormous sums promoting its new system.According to some estimates, it has earmarked $400m-500m to boost WP7, an amount that is likely to be matched by phonemakers and telecoms companies that will offer the new devices.By comparison, Motorola, Verizon and Google spent $100m on the launch of the Android-powered Droid smart-phone at the end of 2009, reckons Deutsche Bank.Microsoft is also taking to the courts.Last week it sued Motorola, arguing that the firm‘s phones violated some of its patents.微軟也料到新系統(tǒng)推銷會花費(fèi)巨大。根據(jù)一些估計，它將撥出4到5億美元專款宣傳WP7，這一數(shù)額可能相當(dāng)于那些提供這種新設(shè)備的手機(jī)制造商與電信公司的行銷費(fèi)用。相比之下，根據(jù)德意志銀行估計，2009年底，摩托羅拉、弗萊森與谷歌公司發(fā)布Android驅(qū)動的Droid智能電話花了1億美元。微軟也習(xí)慣上法庭了。上周，它起訴摩托羅拉，理由是該公司的智能電話侵犯了自己的某些專利。

Such legal quarrels are unlikely to halt the rise of Android.Google‘s operating system is now the most popular one among recent buyers of smart-phones in America, although Apple will become a stronger competitor if it releases a Verizon iPhone, as has been rumoured.―Microsoft is way behind the competition and the chances of it catching up are fairly low,‖ says Brent Thill of UBS, an investment bank.He points out that it will take time to persuade developers to create a rich range of software applications for Microsoft‘s operating system.IDC, another research company, reckons that by 2014 Microsoft will still trail both Apple and Android, as well as Research in Motion(RIM), the maker of the BlackBerry.此類法律爭端不大會遏制Android的發(fā)展。若蘋果如傳言那般，發(fā)布一款Version iPhone，它就將成為更為強(qiáng)有力的競爭者，但即便如此，近期的美國智能電話買家，目前最親睞的仍是谷歌的操作系統(tǒng)。―微軟在競爭中遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后，趕上的機(jī)會也極為渺茫，‖一家投資銀行瑞士聯(lián)合銀行（UBS）的布倫特?希爾稱。他指出，要說服開發(fā)者創(chuàng)建出一系列適用于微軟操作系統(tǒng)的豐富多彩的軟件應(yīng)用，尚需時日。另一家研究公司國際數(shù)據(jù)集團(tuán)（IDC）估計，到2014年，微軟仍會被蘋果及Android甩在身后，亦將落后于黑莓手機(jī)制造商移動研究所（RIM）。

Hence persistent speculation in Silicon Valley that the software behemoth, which has a $37 billion cash pile, might be tempted to bid for RIM, whose phones are popular with corporate road-warriors.If Mr Ballmer is still around to negotiate such a deal, it might be the best chance he has of putting Microsoft‘s stamp on the smart-phone world.因此，硅谷不斷推測，這家擁有370億美元現(xiàn)金資產(chǎn)的軟件巨無霸，試圖競購RIM，而RIM的智能電話廣受經(jīng)常出差的公司員工歡迎。若鮑爾默先生仍盤算著要談判這樣一項交易，那么，這將是其所擁有的、在智能電話領(lǐng)域打上微軟烙印的一個最佳機(jī)會。

注1：windows or curtains

標(biāo)題語帶雙關(guān)，windows既指微軟的―視窗‖操作系統(tǒng)，又指―最佳時機(jī)、有可能完成某事的一段時間或機(jī)會‖；curtains俚語指災(zāi)難、死亡、完蛋，同時對應(yīng)windows，是一種文字游戲。

Charlemagne

Economic sanctions? Yes, please 經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁？拜托，快來吧

Brussels wants to delve deep into the running of national economies.It should beware of digging too far 歐盟想深入鉆研國家經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行。應(yīng)該留神不要鉆的太深。

Sep 30th 2010 2010.09.30

THEY came to Brussels this week in their tens of thousands, from Finland to Greece, to say no to austerity.Their message was simple: the poor and the workers are being made to pay for the sins of the bankers and the speculators.To judge from some banners, they may have a new category of enemy: Eurocrats.數(shù)以萬計的抗議者們從芬蘭到希臘的廣大地域內(nèi)來到布魯塞爾，抗議財政緊縮政策。他們傳達(dá)的信息很簡單：窮人和工人正在被迫為銀行和投機(jī)者犯下的罪行買單。從一些打出的標(biāo)語來看，他們又有了新的一群敵人---歐盟官員。

José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, keeps saying that the days of stimulus spending are over;now is the time for budget cuts.To ensure that members of the European Union maintain fiscal discipline, he proposed on September 29th stern new measures to give the commission power to scrutinise their budgets and impose hundreds of millions of euros‘ worth of penalties on the profligate.Even those that pig-headedly refuse to reform their economies could be punished.歐盟委員會主席巴羅佐一直在說，刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的支出已告結(jié)束，到了削減預(yù)算的時候了。為了保證歐盟成員國繼續(xù)遵守財政紀(jì)律，他于9月29日提出了一份苛刻的新方法，授予委員會對成員國預(yù)算的審查權(quán)，以及有權(quán)對肆意鋪張的國家處以相當(dāng)于上億歐元的處罰。連那些頑固地拒絕對本國進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的國家也可能被罰。

For Mr Barroso this ―economic governance‖ is the only way to ensure the survival of the euro.But outside the commission, demonstrators see things differently.To John Monks, general secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation, the EU is turning into a ―punishment squad‖.Left-wing members of the European Parliament are in a quandary.They want ―more Europe‖, but in this case more Europe means more austerity.在巴羅佐看來，這種―經(jīng)濟(jì)管理‖是保證歐元得以存續(xù)的唯一方式。但在歐盟委員會之外的示威者可不這么看。在歐洲工會聯(lián)邦總干事John Monks看來，歐盟正在變成一個―懲罰班‖。歐洲議會中的左翼成員左右為難，他們想要―更加歐洲化‖，但就此情況下，更加歐洲化意味著更嚴(yán)厲的財政緊縮。

This year‘s Greek crisis exposed the inadequacies of the euro, a single currency without a joint economic or fiscal policy.Trouble in even a peripheral country like Greece, whose GDP is less than a tenth of Germany‘s, posed dangers to all.Loose agreements have not proved strong enough to stop reckless behaviour.Sanctions exist, in theory, in the stability and growth pact, which requires euro-area countries to keep deficits below 3% of GDP and government debt below 60% of GDP, but they have never been imposed.Governments have been reluctant to criticise each other in public, let alone to mete out fines.今年希臘的危機(jī)暴露了歐元的缺陷，身為單一貨幣卻沒有共同的經(jīng)濟(jì)和財政政策。就連希臘這種GDP不到德國十分之一的次要國家有了麻煩，就使所有國家都陷入了危險。事實(shí)證明，松散的協(xié)議不足以阻止魯莽的行為。制裁只在理論上存在于穩(wěn)定與增長公約【注1】中，公約要求歐盟區(qū)國家的赤字要低于GDP的3%，政府債務(wù)低于GDP的60%，但制裁從未真正

第二篇：economist(經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人)精品文章中英對照

Whopper to go 至尊漢堡，打包帶走

Will Burger King be gobbled up by private equity? 漢堡王是否會被私人股本吞并？

Sep 2nd 2010 | NEW YORK

SHARES in Burger King(BK)soared on September 1st on reports that the fast-food company was talking to several private-equity firms interested in buying it.How much beef was behind these stories was unclear.But lately the company famous for the slogan “Have It Your Way” has certainly not been having it its own way.There may be arguments about whether BK or McDonald’s serves the best fries, but there is no doubt which is more popular with stockmarket investors: the maker of the Big Mac has supersized its lead in the past two years.有報道披露，快餐企業(yè)漢堡王（BK）正在與數(shù)個有收購意向的私人股本接洽，9月1日，漢堡王的股值隨之飆升。這些報道究竟有多少真材實(shí)料不得而知。漢堡王的著名口號是“我選我味”，但如今顯然它身不由己，心中五味雜陳。漢堡王和麥當(dāng)勞哪家薯條最好吃，食客們一直爭論不休，但股票投資人更喜歡哪家股票，卻一目了然：過去兩年里，巨無霸麥當(dāng)勞一直在擴(kuò)大自己的優(yōu)勢。

Recession has favoured McDonald’s over BK, whose share price has fallen by half since the economy was flame-grilled in the summer of 2008.Shares in McDonald’s have risen, reaching an all-time high in August.Same-store sales at BK have fallen for five successive quarters.金融危機(jī)卻更青睞漢堡王，自2008年經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷以來，其股票價格跌至原來的一半。而麥當(dāng)勞的股票不跌反漲，在8月又創(chuàng)下了歷史新高。漢堡王的同店銷售額連續(xù)五個季度下跌。

Why has McDonald’s been eating BK’s lunch? Among other things, BK has always had a higher proportion of sales to young men, who have been hit especially hard by the recession.McDonald’s, by contrast, has for several years wooed women and older people with relatively healthy salads and drinkable coffee.BK has struggled to follow suit.At the same time, it has had to contend with angry shareholders, as the rising cost of beef and other ingredients has clobbered its profits.BK may also have cannibalised its existing sales by offering value meals that were a bit too irresistible.為何麥當(dāng)勞在與漢堡王的競爭中占得先機(jī)？別的不談，漢堡王的顧客更多的是年輕人，而年輕人受金融危機(jī)打擊尤其嚴(yán)重。相對地，麥當(dāng)勞近年來一直以相對健康的沙拉和可口的咖啡，吸引女性和中老年人。漢堡王一直難以模仿。與此同時，隨著牛肉等原材料的成本上漲，利潤一跌再跌，漢堡王又不得不去對付那些憤怒的股東。漢堡王的套餐太過誘人，可能也影響了其他產(chǎn)品的銷量。BK is used to changes in ownership.It went from being part of Pillsbury, a food company, to Grand Metropolitan, a British conglomerate, then to Diageo, a drinks giant.In 2002 it was sold to a group of private-equity investors: TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs.They did a fair job, improving sales with better marketing.They also helped turn around the most troubled of the franchisees who operate most BK restaurants.In 2006 BK floated its shares again.Its bosses may hope that going private once more will protect them from short-term stockmarket pressures while they ponder how to beat McDonald’s.漢堡王此前多次易主，已經(jīng)習(xí)以為常了。它曾是皮爾斯百利食品公司的一部分，后轉(zhuǎn)入英國大都會集團(tuán)，繼而轉(zhuǎn)投飲品巨頭帝亞吉?dú)W。2002年又被轉(zhuǎn)手賣給一批私人股本投資者：德克薩斯太平洋集團(tuán)（TPG），貝恩資本和高盛。他們經(jīng)營良好，利用優(yōu)秀市場策略增加了銷售。大部分漢堡王餐廳的運(yùn)營商當(dāng)時經(jīng)營不善，他們還助其扭虧為盈。2006年漢堡王再度上市。其老板可能希望再度私有化以規(guī)避短期股市壓力，為其爭取時間定策擊敗麥當(dāng)勞。

If BK does go private, it may be part of a trend in the private-equity industry—now that some of the bigger firms have rediscovered their appetite for deals—of gobbling up the companies they had taken public during the bubble years but which are now trading cheaply.TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs still own a sizeable stake in BK, despite listing it on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006.However, it seems that other private-equity firms are interested in buying it.If that happens, no doubt BK servers will appreciate the irony: the act of passing a company from one private-equity firm to another is known in the business as “flipping”.私人股本行業(yè)——如今一些大公司重新對收購有了興趣——吞并那些他們在經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫時代賣掉，現(xiàn)在十分廉價的公司，儼然已成一股大潮，如果漢堡王真的私有化，就將融入這股大潮之中。德克薩斯太平洋集團(tuán)（TPG），貝恩資本和高盛雖然2006年在紐約證券交易所已經(jīng)兜售了漢堡王，但他們?nèi)晕沼锌捎^的股份。然而，其他私人股本公司似乎也有意收購。要是真被他們收購，無疑漢堡王的服務(wù)生都能領(lǐng)會其中的諷刺：在私人股本公司中被倒賣，在做漢堡這行叫“翻面”。

本主題由 shiyi18 于 2010-11-12 13:16 移動評分收藏2 分享0 0 0

Down the slipway下水

“Quantitative easing” is unloved and unappreciated—but it is working “量化寬松”不受待見，但是有效 Nov 4th 2010 | Washington, dc

The announcement of “QE2” was hardly breathtaking.The Fed said it will buy $600 billion of Treasuries between now and next June, at about $75 billion a month, although it also said it could adjust the amount and timing if need be.That was about what markets expected but far less than the $1.75 trillion of debt it bought between early 2009 and early 2010 in its first round of QE.Yet QE2 seems already to have exceeded the low expectations it has aroused.Since Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, hinted at it at Jackson Hole on August 27th, markets have all done exactly what they should(see chart).第二輪量化寬松并沒有驚人之處。美聯(lián)儲稱，從現(xiàn)在起到明年6月，它將購買6 000億美元美國國債，相當(dāng)于每月購買750億美元，但具體數(shù)字可能隨情況進(jìn)行調(diào)整。這一規(guī)模與市場預(yù)期相當(dāng)，遠(yuǎn)低于2009年初至2010年初第一輪量化寬松（總共購買債務(wù)1.75萬億美元）。但第二輪量化寬松似乎已經(jīng)超過了它所引起的低預(yù)期。自美聯(lián)儲主席本?伯南克于8月27日在杰克森霍爾（Jackson Hole）暗示這一計劃以來，市場對此已有了充分的反映（見圖）。

Under QE the Fed buys long-term bonds with newly created money.This lowers long-term yields and chases investors into riskier, alternative investments.The real yield on ten-year, inflation-indexed Treasury bonds has fallen from 1.05% to 0.5%, a result of relatively flat nominal yields and a rise in expected inflation.The yield on their five-year cousins is negative(see Buttonwood).Share prices are up by 14% in the same period.Lower yields make the dollar less appealing: it has duly fallen by 5% against the Japanese yen, by 9% against the euro and by 5% on a trade-weighted basis.“You can declare QE to be a success already,” says one hedge-fund economist.“Whether this translates into real activity remains a question-mark.But the question of whether the mechanism would work has been answered.”

在量化寬松計劃中，美聯(lián)儲將通過發(fā)行新鈔買入長期債券。這壓低了后者的收益率，使投資者轉(zhuǎn)向風(fēng)險更高的替代投資品。在名義收益率相對較平和預(yù)期通脹的雙重作用下，10年期通脹指數(shù)化美國國債真實(shí)收益率從1.05%下降至0.5%。五年期品種則已呈現(xiàn)負(fù)利率（見本期Bottonwood）。同期，股票市場上漲了14%。收益率的下降使美元失去了吸引力：美元對日元下跌了5%，對歐元下跌了9%，從貿(mào)易加權(quán)角度看，則下跌了5%。一位對沖基金經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說：“可以說，量化寬松已經(jīng)獲得了成功。它能不能轉(zhuǎn)化為實(shí)際行動還不好說。但其機(jī)制是否起作用已經(jīng)毋庸置疑了。”

Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, reckons that the Fed will eventually buy $1.5 trillion of debt under QE2, and that this will raise growth next year to 3.6% from 3.3% without QE.That’s not exactly overwhelming: the firm thinks the Fed would have to buy $5.25 trillion of bonds to achieve the equivalent of a –4% federal-funds rate, which is what the economy needs.The Fed will not do that for fear of unknown consequences, among them the response of Congress’s newly empowered Republicans.In a Bloomberg poll, 60% of self-identified tea-party supporters favoured overhauling or abolishing the Fed.咨詢公司Macroeconomic Advisers認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲在第二輪量化寬松中將總共購買1.5萬億美元債務(wù)，使明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率從3.3%（如果不實(shí)行量化寬松的話）提高到3.6%。這還不是最令人震驚的：該公司還認(rèn)為，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)需要聯(lián)邦基金利率下降到-4%的水平，要達(dá)到這一效果，美聯(lián)儲必須購買5.25萬億美元債券才行。要美聯(lián)儲拋出如此大手筆是不可能的，因為它害怕因此導(dǎo)致不可預(yù)料的后果，比如引起最近在國會中重掌大權(quán)的共和黨人的激烈反應(yīng)。彭博社（Bloomberg）的調(diào)查顯示，60%自稱茶黨支持者的人贊成改組甚至取消美聯(lián)儲。

Could QE work too well and drive inflation expectations to dangerous levels? “The odds aren’t zero,” says Don Kohn, a former Fed vice-chairman, but they’re small.There’s more risk that expectations could rise once credit loosens up and spending accelerates.That, however, would be a signal that the Fed has succeeded;it can then tighten policy.量化寬松會過猶不及、將通脹預(yù)期推高到危險水平嗎？“并非不可能?！鼻懊缆?lián)儲副主席鄧?考恩（Don Kohn）說，但可能性很小。更大的風(fēng)險是通脹預(yù)期在信貸放松和支出增速之后抬頭。但這正是美聯(lián)儲成功的信號，屆時它已經(jīng)可以采取緊縮措施了。

A damaging round of beggar-thy-neighbour currency interventions cannot be ruled out.But the Bank of Japan, after intervening directly to weaken the yen in September, has struck upon a more benign response.It had been scheduled to release details of its own QE at a regular policy meeting in mid-November but moved the date forward to this week.Analysts suspect this was to counteract upward pressure on the yen because of the Fed’s move.If central banks all print money in unison, and don’t mop up excess liquidity, then the result could be a worldwide monetary fillip.QE’s benefits should not be over-egged.Nor should they be dismissed.不能排除發(fā)生一種危險情況，那就是各國競相采取以鄰為壑的貨幣市場干預(yù)手段。日本銀行在9月就曾經(jīng)直接干預(yù)外匯市場使日元貶值，但這一回，日本銀行的反應(yīng)較為溫和。原定11月中旬政策例會上宣布的日本量化寬松計劃將提前至本周。分析師認(rèn)為日本央行此舉是為了緩和美聯(lián)儲動作給日元帶來的升值壓力。如果各國央行一起開動印鈔機(jī)，而不顧流動性過剩的后果，那么結(jié)果將是全球貨幣刺激。沒有必要過分強(qiáng)調(diào)量化寬松的好處，但也不應(yīng)該刻意貶低。

Opening stand 登場

Luck may play a big role in launching successful careers 上佳的運(yùn)氣是成功職業(yè)開端的一半

Nov 18th 2010

IN CRICKET batsmen often need a slice of luck to build a decent innings.Might that be true of cricketers’ careers in general, and even of other jobs? In an IMF working paper Shekhar Aiyar and Rodney Ramcharan suggest that it is lucky for international cricketers to play their debut Test(international)match at home.在板球比賽中，擊球手通常需要點(diǎn)運(yùn)氣才能打出不錯的擊球局。所有板球選手都是這樣嗎？其他職業(yè)也是如此嗎？在一篇IMF工作論文中，Shekhar Aiyar和Rodney Ramcharan提出，就（國際）對抗賽（Test）而言，能在主場上演職業(yè)生涯首秀對于板球選手來說是件幸事。

Playing at home means familiar pitches and climatic conditions, and a more supportive crowd(just ask the English cricketers whose series against Australia starts in Brisbane on November 25th).Sifting through the data on 790 cricketers who made their Test debuts between 1950 and 1985, the authors find that playing at home rather than away raises the average number of runs scored in their first series by 33% and reduces the runs that a bowler concedes by 18%.主場作戰(zhàn)意為著更熟悉的場地和天氣狀況，以及更高的觀眾支持率（關(guān)于這一點(diǎn)，11月25日做客布里斯班與澳大利亞進(jìn)行系列賽的英格蘭板球隊隊員將有切身體會）。通過分析1950至1985年間790位板球手在對抗賽處子秀上的表現(xiàn)，兩位作者發(fā)現(xiàn)，主場作戰(zhàn)平均能將處子系列賽得分“跑”次數(shù)較客場提高33%，將被對方投手封殺的“跑”的次數(shù)降低18%。

This would not be luck, of course, if team selectors deliberately give home debuts to better players.But first starts are often the result of random events such as the injury or poor performance of existing team members.By using age as a proxy for ability(assuming that younger players who force their way into international sides tend to be more talented), the authors find that the distribution of cricketers’ ages is almost identical for home and away debuts.當(dāng)然，如果各隊有意將主場處子秀的機(jī)會留給較為優(yōu)秀的選手的話，那么出現(xiàn)上述結(jié)果就并非運(yùn)氣了。但處子秀本身是由一系列隨機(jī)事件決定的：比如隊友受傷或是狀態(tài)低迷等。兩位作者將年齡作為能力的一個代表因素（假設(shè)選手成功登上國際賽場的年齡越低，則其水平就越優(yōu)秀），結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，板球選手主場處子秀年齡分布和客場沒有區(qū)別。

A strong debut seems to lead to a shinier career.Every additional ten runs scored in a debut series adds an extra five runs to a player’s career average.The effects of initial success are similar for bowlers.One possibility is that a good start builds confidence and experience that boosts future performance.A bad start, in contrast, is not easily forgiven: selectors appear to discard potentially high-ability players who had the misfortune to debut abroad.強(qiáng)勢處子秀似乎意味著輝煌的職業(yè)生涯。系列賽處子秀上得分跑次數(shù)每增加10次，選手職業(yè)生涯平均得分跑次數(shù)就能增加5次。開門紅效應(yīng)對投手也適用。原因可能是成功的開端所帶來的信心和經(jīng)驗?zāi)軌虼碳みx手的未來表現(xiàn)。反之，如果處子秀演砸了，就可能留下持久的陰影：首秀是在客場，又沒能出彩，那么即使你很有潛質(zhì)，在后來的比賽中也可能得不到出場機(jī)會。

A good start may have a persistent, positive impact in other fields, too.That’s especially likely if employers take things at face value and fail to discount the impact of other factors that might enable good performance—a boom in financial markets for a trader, let’s imagine.良好的開端在其他領(lǐng)域也可能有持久的正面效應(yīng)。特別是，當(dāng)雇主只看表面結(jié)果而忽略其他可能帶來良好表現(xiàn)的因素時，開門紅效應(yīng)就尤為顯著。大牛市對于交易員的影響就是其中之一。

A rock, not a hard place 選石的，不選硬的

Boom time for miners in a resource-hungry region 資源饑渴地區(qū)的礦業(yè)繁榮

Nov 11th 2010 | Hong Kong

IT CAN sometimes feel as if bankers in Asia are shifting their focus backwards along the economic food chain.First they moved from manufacturing to property.Now it’s the turn of rocks.有時候，銀行家在亞洲的一舉一動讓人感到他們是在逆經(jīng)濟(jì)食物鏈而動。他們先是將注意力從制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向房地產(chǎn)。現(xiàn)在則輪到了礦石。

In Hong Kong alone seven mining and natural-resources firms have gone public this year, raising HK$36 billion($4.6 billion)in the process.Another 13 listed in 2009, raising HK$58 billion, up from not very much the year before.A further 10-15 firms are due to list over the next year and the sums raised will almost certainly be bigger than before, thanks to Asia’s appetite for raw materials and inexorably rising commodities prices.光是在香港，今年以來便已有7家礦產(chǎn)和自然資源公司上市，總?cè)谫Y額高達(dá)360億港幣。2009年全年共有13家礦產(chǎn)類公司在香港上市，融資580億港幣，較清淡的2008年有所增長。明年還有10~15家公司等著上市。由于亞洲對原材料的巨大需求和不斷上漲的商品價格，總?cè)谫Y額達(dá)到空前高度已是板上釘釘。

One of the more meteoric ascents has been that of Sino Prosper State Gold Resources Holdings, a Hong Kong-listed company which a year ago was barely more than a shell company.It had an agreement to buy what was thought to be a small mine in Inner Mongolia, along with five undeveloped tracts of land in a remote area of Heilongjiang, in China’s north-eastern tip.The firm was valued on the Hong Kong stock exchange at HK$400m.Since then the price of gold has spiked, and the mine has been bought and turned out to be not so very small after all.Sino Prosper’s valuation is currently HK$3.5 billion and it has become a beacon for other minerals firms.礦產(chǎn)類股票中火速躥升，其中中盈國金控股有限公司的表現(xiàn)尤其耀眼。這家香港上司公司一年前還是個皮包公司，手里握有一張協(xié)議，內(nèi)容據(jù)說是關(guān)于收購內(nèi)蒙古一家小型金礦和黑龍江省邊遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)五塊未開發(fā)地皮的，去年的市值為4億港幣。從那兒以后，金價開始飆漲，于是小金礦搖身一變成了大寶庫，中盈國金的市值目前已高達(dá)35億港幣，成了礦業(yè)股中的明星。

Hong Kong’s Canadian Chamber of Commerce this week held an invitation-only conference on mining.It was packed with Canadian companies in search of capital either through a direct listing(difficult, given profitability requirements at the Hong Kong stock exchange)or a partial investment by a cash-laden, resource-hungry Chinese firm.Investors seemed less concerned by the risks of digging up minerals, more by potential political obstacles in the wake of the Canadian government’s intervention to block BHP Billiton’s hostile takeover of Potash Corporation.上周，眾多加拿大公司出席了一個由香港加拿大商會（Canadian Chamber of Commerce）舉辦的憑柬入場礦業(yè)會議，或是爭取直接上市（這比較困難，因為香港股票交易所對上市公司盈利能力要求較高），或是尋求手握重金又急切需要資源的中國企業(yè)作為部分投資人，以獲得資本。投資者們似乎不太擔(dān)心挖礦風(fēng)險，而是更加顧忌潛在的政治障礙——加拿大政府干預(yù)叫停了必和必拓（BHP Billiton）對Potash公司的敵意收購。

Only two large mines are currently being developed—gold and copper in Oyu Tolgoi, coal in Tavan Tolgoi—but there are numerous smaller mines throughout the country and 15 major deposits that are the source of serious discussions between global mining giants and the government, says Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt of TenGer, a bank holding company.Financiers are on the hunt for investment opportunities in other businesses, too.Mr Hutagt calls Mongolia a wolf economy, hungry and eager.Just like the bankers.目前蒙古只有兩個較大的礦處于開發(fā)中——Oyu Tolgoi的金銅伴生礦和Tavan Tolgoi的煤礦。但是，TenGer銀行控股公司的Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt透露，有傳言說蒙古政府正在就全國眾多小型礦和15個主要大礦與全球礦業(yè)巨頭進(jìn)行重要談判。除了礦產(chǎn)企業(yè)之外，金融家也在蒙古尋求著其他業(yè)務(wù)機(jī)會。Hutagt用“狼”來形容蒙古經(jīng)濟(jì)，認(rèn)為它又饑餓又迫切。這倒是與銀行家頗為相似。America's budget deficit 美國的預(yù)算赤字

Speak softly and carry a big chainsaw 輕聲細(xì)語的德州電鋸

Sorting out America’s fiscal mess is relatively simple.What’s needed is political courage 欲解美國財政亂局何其簡單，政治勇氣足以

Nov 18th 2010

LAST week Asia, this week Europe: no wonder Barack Obama has been to so many foreign summits since his party took a pounding in the mid-term elections.With the prospect of gridlock at home, a president naturally turns abroad.Yet Mr Obama badly needs to show that he can still lead on domestic policy.He should start by cajoling Congress into an agreement to tackle America’s ominous fiscal arithmetic.自從奧巴馬領(lǐng)軍的民主黨在中期選舉中身受重創(chuàng)后，他兩周內(nèi)接連出訪歐亞兩洲；因此頻繁出席境外峰會也就不稀奇了。既然國內(nèi)前景仍是一片僵局，那么總統(tǒng)先生轉(zhuǎn)戰(zhàn)國外也算是自然而然的事情。然而奧巴馬目前急需證明自己仍有能力引領(lǐng)國內(nèi)政局；鑒于目前美國的“預(yù)算數(shù)學(xué)題”非常難解，他不妨從這里開始，但需要拉攏國會以便達(dá)成共識。

A trillion-dollar trove 上萬億的聚寶盆

The scale of America’s fiscal problem depends on how far ahead you look.Today’s deficit, running at 9% of GDP, is huge.Federal debt held by the public has shot up to 62% of GDP, the highest it has been in over 50 years.But that is largely thanks to the economy’s woes.If growth recovers, the hole left by years of serial tax-cutting and overspending can be plugged: you need to find spending cuts or tax increases equal only to 2% of GDP to stabilise federal debt by 2015.But look farther ahead and a much bigger gap appears, as an ageing population needs ever more pensions and health care.Such “entitlements” will double the federal debt by 2027;and the number keeps on rising after then.The figures for state and local debt are scary too.美國財政問題的嚴(yán)重程度取決于預(yù)期時間的長短。目前巨額的赤字水平已經(jīng)達(dá)到了GDP的9%。拜美國的苦難經(jīng)濟(jì)所賜，社會需求造成的聯(lián)邦債務(wù)對GDP比例達(dá)到了62%，這是過去50多年來從未出現(xiàn)過的。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)增長，那么連續(xù)數(shù)年減稅政策和過度消費(fèi)導(dǎo)致的缺口就有可能得到彌補(bǔ)：如果希望在2015年使聯(lián)邦債務(wù)達(dá)到穩(wěn)定水平，僅需相當(dāng)于GDP2%的支出削減或者稅收增加就可以實(shí)現(xiàn)。但如果預(yù)測更長遠(yuǎn)的未來，那么人口老齡化會增高的養(yǎng)老金和健康保障計劃的需求，缺口就將變的更大。類似的“社保支出”將會迫使聯(lián)邦債務(wù)在2027年翻倍；而且會越來越高。州債務(wù)和地方債務(wù)看起來同樣可怕。

The solution should start with an agreement between Mr Obama and Congress on a target for a manageable level of publicly held federal debt: say, 60% of GDP by 2020.They should also agree on the broad balance between lower spending and higher taxes to achieve this.This newspaper believes that the lion’s share of the adjustment should come on the spending side.Entitlements are at the root of the problem and need to be trimmed, and research has shown that although spending cuts weigh on growth in the short run, they hurt less than higher taxes.And in the long run later retirement and other reforms will expand the labour force and thus potential output, whereas higher taxes dull incentives to work and invest.解決問題的前提是奧巴馬必須同國會達(dá)成共識，目標(biāo)是將社會需求造成的美國政府債保持在可控的水平內(nèi)；比如2020年達(dá)到GDP的60%。同時還要在減少支出和增加稅收上形成一致意見，以便尋求二者之間的大體平衡。本刊認(rèn)為調(diào)整的重頭戲是在支出方面。社保支出是問題的根源，需要進(jìn)行削減；盡管研究表明削減支出在短期內(nèi)會影響到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，但對經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的傷害卻遠(yuǎn)不及稅收增加。從長期來看，延長退休年齡及其他改革舉措必將擴(kuò)張勞動力大軍，進(jìn)而增加潛在產(chǎn)出；但高稅收弱化了工作的激勵機(jī)制，同時使投資熱情也大大衰退。

Yet even to believers in small government, like this newspaper, there are good reasons for letting taxes take at least some of the strain.Politically, this will surely be the price of any bipartisan agreement.Economically, there is sensible room for manoeuvre without damaging growth.American taxes are relatively low after the reductions of recent years.In an ideal world the tax burden would be gradually shifted from income to consumption(including a carbon tax).But that is politically hard—and there is a much easier target for reform.本刊屬于篤信小政府的人，甚至對于所有這樣的人來說，都有充足的理由認(rèn)為稅收應(yīng)該分擔(dān) 部分壓力。從政治角度上來說，兩黨取得的任何共識都要付出一定的代價；從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度上看，在不傷害經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的情況下還有一定的調(diào)整空間。經(jīng)過近些年的連續(xù)削減，美國的稅率水平已經(jīng)達(dá)到了相當(dāng)?shù)偷某潭?。在完美狀態(tài)下，稅收負(fù)擔(dān)應(yīng)該逐漸從收入領(lǐng)域轉(zhuǎn)移到消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域（包括煙塵排放稅）。不過這對政治是一個巨大的挑戰(zhàn)，畢竟還有很多容易解決的改革目標(biāo)。

America’s tax system is riddled with exemptions, deductions and credits that feed an industry of advisers but sap economic energy.Simply scrapping these distortions—in other words, broadening the base of taxation without any new taxes—could bring in some $1 trillion a year.Even though some of this would have to go in lowering marginal rates, it is a little like finding money behind the sofa cushions.The tax system would be simpler, fairer and more efficient.All this means that America can sensibly aim for a balance between spending cuts and higher taxes similar to the benchmark set by Britain’s coalition government.A ratio of 75:25 is about right.美國的稅收體系給稅收豁免、稅收扣減和信貸留了許多開口，這不僅養(yǎng)活了整個顧問行業(yè)，還消耗了經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體能量。每年僅僅為了沖抵這些差異（換而言之，沒有新稅種增加的情況下增加稅收基礎(chǔ)）就要耗費(fèi)一萬億美元。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)這個目的不得不降低邊際稅率，但多少有點(diǎn)兒像在沙發(fā)墊子后面尋找錢財。稅收體系將會更加簡單、公平和高效。所有這些意味著美國可以理智的在職出削減和提高稅收之間找到平衡，類似于英國聯(lián)合政府設(shè)定的基準(zhǔn)。75:25差不多就是正確的比例了。

Mr Obama and the Republicans are brimming with ideas for freezing discretionary spending, which covers most government operations from defence to national parks.They have found common cause in attacking “earmarks”, the pet projects that lawmakers insert into bills.But discretionary outlays, including defence, are less than 40% of the total budget.Entitlements, in particular Social Security(pensions)and Medicare and Medicaid(health care for the elderly and the poor), represent the bulk of spending and even more of spending growth.奧巴馬和共和黨人都熱衷于凍結(jié)機(jī)動支出的理念，這涵蓋了從國防到國家公園的大部分政府部門。他們已經(jīng)將聲討“特定用途之處”作為共同事業(yè)，這正是法律制定者們夢寐以求的計劃。問題在于包括國防在內(nèi)的機(jī)動支出僅占總預(yù)算的40%。社保支在支出中的權(quán)重很高，增長幅度也比較大；特別是社會保障（養(yǎng)老金）、醫(yī)療保險和醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助制度（針對老年人和貧困人群的健康保障計劃）。

Health-care spending is a much tougher issue, because it is being fed by both the ageing of the population and rising per-person demand for services.Richer beneficiaries should pay more of their share of Medicare, while the generosity of the system should be kept in check by the independent panel set up under Mr Obama’s health reform to monitor services and payments.The simplest way for the federal government to restrain Medicaid would be to end the current system of matching state spending and replace this with block grants, which would give the states an incentive to focus on cost-control.健康保障支出方面的問題要麻煩得多，因為人口老齡化現(xiàn)象和增高的人均服務(wù)需求共同促進(jìn)了這項支出的增長。富裕的受益者應(yīng)該為他們的醫(yī)療保險付出更多，同時保障體系的恩惠必須長期受都獨(dú)立委員會的監(jiān)察，該組織成立于奧巴馬的健康改革過程中，指責(zé)是對服務(wù)和各項支付進(jìn)行監(jiān)督。聯(lián)邦政府也有簡單易行的方法來限制醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助制度的開銷：取消各州相同的現(xiàn)行體系，代之以分類財政補(bǔ)貼，此舉可以激勵各州政府關(guān)注與支出控制。

Chainsaw you can believe in 電鋸絕對值得信賴

Devising a plan that reduces the deficit, and eventually the debt, to a manageable size is relatively easy.Getting politicians to agree to it is a different thing.The bitter divide between the parties means that politicians pay a high price for consorting with the enemy.So Democrats cling to entitlements, and Republicans live in fear of losing their next party nomination to a tea-party activist if they bend on taxes.Even the president’s own bipartisan commission can’t agree on what to do.設(shè)計方案來壓縮目前的赤字、并最終縮減債務(wù)，使其達(dá)到可控的水平是非常容易的。困難的事讓政客們同意這個方案。兩黨分歧之痛意味著政敵間的結(jié)交需要高昂的代價。因此民主黨人緊抓社保支出；如果共和黨人專注于稅收變革，就會終日擔(dān)心在下次黨內(nèi)選舉中敗給茶黨。即使總統(tǒng)的兩黨工作組也無法決定下一步的舉措。

Britain and France need each other to continue as great(ish)powers 英國和法國要想繼續(xù)保持其全球大國（或準(zhǔn)大國）的地位，兩國就必須牢牢捆在一起

Nov 4th 2010 2010年11月4日

表1:防務(wù)能力的混合與重組

英國

法國

2009年國防預(yù)算 583億美元 639億美元

武裝部隊總?cè)藬?shù) 17.8萬人 25萬人

航空母艦 2艘 1艘

驅(qū)逐艦 6艘 11艘

護(hù)衛(wèi)艦 17艘 20艘

攻擊型潛艇 7艘

6艘

作戰(zhàn)飛機(jī) 300架 360架

武裝直升機(jī) 233架 246架

戰(zhàn)略導(dǎo)彈核潛艇 4艘 4艘

數(shù)據(jù)來源: ⅡSS；DASA/MOD：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人雜志社

The main items in the pact are a combined joint expeditionary force and an agreement to operate aircraft-carrier strike groups using aircraft and escort vessels contributed by both countries.But much of the treaty deals with less glamorous equipment and capabilities.Training and maintenance for the new A400M transport aircraft that the two nations are buying will be pooled.Britain is keen to share its new A300-based aerial tankers, if a financial deal to do so can be reached.該條約的主要條款包括組建一支聯(lián)合遠(yuǎn)征部隊和一個聯(lián)合航母作戰(zhàn)群，艦載機(jī)與護(hù)航艦只由兩個國家分?jǐn)偂５珬l約的大量條款涉及的都是不那么引人注目的裝備與能力。這兩個國家都正在購買A400M型軍用運(yùn)輸機(jī)，這種新機(jī)型的培訓(xùn)與維護(hù)將聯(lián)合進(jìn)行。如果能夠達(dá)成資金分?jǐn)偟膮f(xié)議，英國是急切地想要兩國共享其新購進(jìn)的A300改型空中加油機(jī)。

The two countries will jointly develop nuclear-submarine technologies, satellite communications and maritime-mine countermeasures.The big defence industries of both will be encouraged to co-operate on the next generation of surveillance drones and assorted new missiles, with the aim of forging a single prime European contractor for “complex weapons”.兩國將聯(lián)合研發(fā)核潛艇技術(shù)，聯(lián)合發(fā)展衛(wèi)星通信和反水雷戰(zhàn)的能力。將鼓勵兩國的大型國防工業(yè)企業(yè)合作研發(fā)新一代的無人偵察機(jī)和各種新型導(dǎo)彈，目標(biāo)是要打造單一的“復(fù)雜武器系統(tǒng)”歐洲總承包商。

Most dramatically, a separate treaty has been signed on nuclear co-operation.This is remarkable, given the different approaches that France and Britain have taken towards their nuclear deterrents(Britain depends heavily on American kit, while France’s force de frappe is a supreme symbol of national sovereignty).With the blessing of the United States, Britain’s Aldermaston research establishment will concentrate on developing technology, while its French counterpart at Valduc will carry out simulated warhead testing.最有戲劇性的是，兩國還簽訂了一個單獨(dú)的核合作條約。考慮到英法兩國在構(gòu)建核威懾力量上的不同做法，這一點(diǎn)頗為引人注目。（英國的核武系統(tǒng)嚴(yán)重依賴美國提供的裝備，而法國的核攻擊力則是其國家主權(quán)的最高象征）。由于有美國盟友的幫助，英國的奧爾德瑪斯頓研究機(jī)構(gòu)可以專注于研發(fā)技術(shù)，而法國位于瓦爾杜克（Valduc）的核研究機(jī)構(gòu)就必須進(jìn)行核彈頭的模擬試驗。

Predictably, there was much harrumphing in Britain’s jingoistic popular press.A few retired politicians were dragged out to reminisce about slights suffered at the hands of the perfidious Frogs.The reaction in France was more muted, perhaps because the agreement carefully avoids any of the visionary language about European architectures that excites French imaginations, but which many British Conservatives, such as the defence secretary, Liam Fox, viscerally loathe.可以預(yù)見，在支持強(qiáng)硬外交政策的英國大眾媒體上會出現(xiàn)一片不滿和反對之聲。還會拖出幾個退休賦閑的政客來追憶背信棄義的法國佬在過去給英國帶來的小小不快。法國的反應(yīng)則要溫和的多，原因也許是該協(xié)議小心翼翼地回避了對歐洲架構(gòu)的預(yù)見性表述。只要提起歐洲架構(gòu)就會激起法國人的想象力，但許多英國保守黨人，如國防部長利亞姆?福克斯（Liam Fox）之流，就發(fā)自內(nèi)心地厭惡之。

In fact, most of the objections raised seem either ignorant or anachronistic.Even before France rejoined NATO’s integrated military structure last year, British and French forces had frequently worked and fought together under the command of one or other country.With the exception of the Iraq controversy, the two have rarely found themselves on opposite sides during recent international crises.For example, Britain’s defence secretary during the Falklands war, John Nott, revealed in his memoirs that France had been Britain’s staunchest ally, providing information that helped to render the Exocet anti-ship missiles used by Argentina ineffective, and supplying Mirage and Super-Etendard fighters for British Harrier pilots to pit themselves against in training.事實(shí)上，大多數(shù)持反對觀點(diǎn)的人似乎要么是無知，要么就是落伍于時代。甚至在法國去年重返北約軍事一體化架構(gòu)之前，英法兩國的軍隊就已經(jīng)頻繁地在對方指揮下共同工作和作戰(zhàn)。除了伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭的論戰(zhàn)之外，兩國在最近出現(xiàn)的國際危機(jī)中很少出現(xiàn)對立。例如，英國在馬島戰(zhàn)爭期間的國防部長約翰?諾特（John Nott）就在他的回憶錄中透露，法國在這場沖突中是英國最堅定的盟友，法國提供的情報使阿根廷的飛魚反艦導(dǎo)彈收效甚微，法國還提供“幻影”和“超軍旗”式戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)供英國的鷂式戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)飛行員進(jìn)行對抗訓(xùn)練。

Difficulties could arise, however, over shared use of the two countries’ aircraft carriers, if national priorities and policies do not coincide during future conflicts.One solution would be for Britain not to sell the second carrier it is currently building, which at present seems its likely fate, but to operate it on a timeshare basis with the French.That way it could be made available without caveats to whichever country needed it when its main ship was in refit(a three-year job required every seven years or so).Just don’t call it Trafalgar.然而共用兩國的航母的話，在未來可能爆發(fā)的沖突中如果出現(xiàn)國家利益優(yōu)先和對外政策不相一致的情況，就可能會出現(xiàn)困難。一個解決辦法就是英國不賣第二艘在建的航母（目前看來它可能面臨胎死腹中的命運(yùn)），而是與法國分時共享這艘航母。這樣一來就可以在其航母整修期間（大約每航行七年左右要有三年時間進(jìn)行整修），哪個國家需要它都可以不受限制的進(jìn)行使用。但絕對不要把它命名為“特拉法爾加”號。

The liquefaction of hardware 硬件熔解

The rise of the virtual computer 虛擬計算機(jī)興起

Nov 18th 2010

Thanks to a process called “virtualisation”, such computers are now being created.Ever more processing power and clever software are allowing devices of all kinds to separate from their hardware vessels and move to new homes.If this process continues as some expect, it will change computing radically.And more than one IT company will have to rethink how it does business.多虧一種稱為“虛擬化”的技術(shù)，這種電腦正被制造出來。處理能力日益強(qiáng)大，聰明軟件越來越多，正讓各種設(shè)備從所在的硬件容器中剝離出來，遷入新居。如若虛擬化進(jìn)程，像某些人所料那般持續(xù)下去，就將從根本上改變計算機(jī)運(yùn)作。而多家IT公司將不得不重新考慮，如何運(yùn)用該技術(shù)做生意。

Virtualisation dates back to the age of mainframe computers.To make better use of them they were sometimes split into smaller “virtual machines”, each of which could run its own operating system and application.But the approach took off only in recent years, when VMWare, a software firm, applied it to servers, the powerful computers that populate today’s corporate data centres.VMWare and its main rivals, Citrix and Microsoft, have since developed all kinds of software tools to manage virtual machines—moving them between data centres, for example.虛擬化始于大型機(jī)時代。為優(yōu)化利用，大型機(jī)有時被分割成一些小型“虛擬機(jī)”，每個虛擬機(jī)都能運(yùn)行自己的操作系統(tǒng)及應(yīng)用軟件。但此法近幾年突然風(fēng)行，當(dāng)時，一家軟件公司VMWare將其運(yùn)用到服務(wù)器上，正是這些功能強(qiáng)大的服務(wù)器，構(gòu)成了今天的企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)中心。VMWare及其主要對手Citrix和Microsoft，那時起就開發(fā)了各種虛擬機(jī)管理軟件工具，比如讓虛擬機(jī)在數(shù)據(jù)中心間遷移的軟件。

The success of server virtualisation has inspired IT firms and their customers to do the same thing with other types of hardware, such as devices to store data.Software now pools their capacity and allocates “virtual disks” as needed.Going further, Dropbox, an online storage service, saves identical files only once.Even large files can take only seconds to upload if they already exist somewhere on one of these firms’ disks.服務(wù)器虛擬化的成功，啟發(fā)IT公司及其顧客在其他類型的硬件（如數(shù)據(jù)存儲設(shè)備）上，做同樣的事?，F(xiàn)在，軟件可共用這些設(shè)備的存儲容量，并按需分配“虛擬磁盤”。進(jìn)一步來說，一種網(wǎng)絡(luò)存儲服務(wù)Dropbox，同一份文件僅存一次。即便是大文件，只要已存在這些公司某個磁盤的某處，上傳也只需數(shù)秒。

In the long run, smartphones and other mobile devices may also become shells to be filled as needed.Open Kernel Labs, a start-up in which Citrix has a stake, already lets smartphones run applications, multimedia and radio functions on a single processor, cutting manufacturing costs.Software from Citrix turns the iPad, Apple’s tablet computer, into a terminal for applications that run in a corporate data centre.終究，智能電話與其他設(shè)備也可能變成空殼，按需填充各種軟件數(shù)據(jù)。一家Citrix持股的新興企業(yè)Open Kernel Labs，已使智能電話在一個單處理機(jī)上運(yùn)行應(yīng)用軟件、實(shí)現(xiàn)多媒體及收音機(jī)功能，削減了制造成本。Citrix的軟件，把蘋果的平板電腦iPad，變成了一個應(yīng)用軟件終端，而這些軟件運(yùn)行在一個企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)中心內(nèi)。

Yet the technology also has to overcome a few hurdles.The virtualisation of servers is well understood, but for PCs and mobile devices the technique has yet to mature.In the longer run institutional barriers will prove more of a problem, argues Simon Crosby, Citrix’s chief technology officer.Virtualising IT systems, he says, is only the first step to automating their management.This is seen as a threat to existing workers and makes many IT departments hesitant to embrace the technology.然而，該技術(shù)還須攻克幾個障礙。服務(wù)器虛擬化，大家都很清楚，但對個人電腦及移動設(shè)備而言，該技術(shù)尚未成熟。Citrix公司首席技術(shù)官Simon Crosby表示，從更長遠(yuǎn)來看，制度障礙也將證實(shí)是個問題。他稱，IT系統(tǒng)虛擬化僅是其管理自動化的第一步。這被在職員工視為一個威脅，令許多IT部門接受這種技術(shù)猶豫不決。Still, analysts believe virtualisation will win out.Its impact will be felt through the industry.The technology not only makes IT systems more flexible, but allows firms to switch vendors more easily—which will weigh on the vendors’ profits.Big software firms such as Microsoft and Oracle may be hit hardest.But many hardware-makers may suffer as well, since their wares will become even more of a commodity than they are today.盡管如此，分析家認(rèn)為虛擬化將最終勝出。整個IT業(yè)都將感受到其影響。該技術(shù)不僅使IT系統(tǒng)更為靈活，也讓企業(yè)更換銷售商更為容易，這將給這些銷售商盈利造成壓力。諸如Microsoft及Oracle之類的軟件巨頭可能受打擊最重。但許多硬件制造商，由于其產(chǎn)品將變成比現(xiàn)在更有價值的一種商品，也可能遭受重創(chuàng)。

What’s up, BYOC?（注1）“自帶電腦”如何？

Moreover, virtualisation makes it much easier to add new servers or storage devices.Alternatively, firms can simply rent extra capacity from operators of what are called “computing clouds”, such as Amazon Web Services.That outfit has built a network of data centres in which virtual machines and disks can be launched in seconds.As a result, IT systems will increasingly no longer be a capital expense（注2）, but an operational cost（注3）, like electricity.此外，虛擬化使得增添新服務(wù)器或存儲設(shè)備非常容易。如若不然，企業(yè)也能簡單地從所謂的“計算云”運(yùn)營商（如Amazon Web Services公司）那租用額外磁盤容量。這家廠商已建立了一個數(shù)據(jù)中心網(wǎng)絡(luò)，其中的虛擬機(jī)及磁盤能在數(shù)秒內(nèi)啟動。結(jié)果，IT系統(tǒng)愈來愈不是一種資本支出，而是一種運(yùn)營成本，跟電力一樣。

Yet the most noticeable change for computer users will be that more employees will be allowed to bring their own PC or smartphone to work, says Brian Madden of TechTarget, a consultancy.Companies can install a secure virtual heart on private machines, doing away with the need for a separate corporate device.A “bring your own computer” or “BYOC” movement has already emerged in America.Companies such as Citrix and Kraft Foods pay their employees a stipend, which they can use to buy any PC they want—even an Apple Mac.然而，電腦用戶感受到的最顯著變化，則是更多雇員將獲準(zhǔn)攜帶自己的個人電腦或智能電話工作，一家咨詢公司TechTarget的Brian Madden這樣說。企業(yè)可在私人機(jī)器上安裝一個可靠的虛擬心臟，這也擺脫了對企業(yè)設(shè)備的單獨(dú)需求。一種“自帶電腦”或“BYOC”運(yùn)動已在美國出現(xiàn)。像Citrix和Kraft Foods這樣的公司，付給雇員津貼，讓他們用其購買想要的任何電腦，甚或蘋果Mac電腦。

Such innovations may help to ease growing tensions between workers and IT departments.New privacy regulations and rampant cybercrime are pushing firms to tighten control of company PCs and smartphones.At the same time more and more “digital natives（注4）” enter the workforce.They have grown up with the freewheeling internet and do not suffer boring black corporate laptops gladly.Giving workers more freedom while helping firms keep control may prove to be the biggest benefit of virtualisation.這類創(chuàng)新或許有助于緩解員工與IT部門間日益緊張的關(guān)系。新的隱私規(guī)則出臺，網(wǎng)絡(luò)犯罪猖獗，正推動企業(yè)加強(qiáng)對公司個人電腦與智能電話的管控。與此同時，越來越多的“數(shù)碼原住民”步入職場。他們與無拘無束的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)一起長大成人，很高興不用忍受單調(diào)乏味的公司黑筆記本電腦。給予員工更多自由，同時協(xié)助企業(yè)管控，或許證明是虛擬化的最大收益。

注1：What’s up, BYOC? 小標(biāo)題源自美國1972年出品的電影“What’s up, Doc?”，中文片名一般譯為《愛的大追蹤》，或“出什么事了，大夫？ / 瘋狂飛車大鬧唐人街 / 愛的大逃亡”。

注2：capital expense Capital Spending/Capital Expenditures/Capital Expense 資本支出

某些支出—如購置廠房、機(jī)器、設(shè)備等—可以使以后多個會計受益而非當(dāng)年消耗完畢，這種支出形成的企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)能力，稱為資本支出(capital expenditures)。當(dāng)一個企業(yè)花錢購買固定資產(chǎn)或給已有固定資產(chǎn)增加價值時，這就產(chǎn)生了資本支出。在會計中，把支出記作資產(chǎn)的辦法，稱為資本化。

由于稅收的目的，資本支出不能在它們被支付或發(fā)生的扣除成本，并且必須被資本化。一般的規(guī)則是，如果收購的物業(yè)的使用年限超過納稅的年限，成本必須被資本化。資本開支成本會在以上資產(chǎn)的使用時期被分期償還或貶值。如上所述，資本支出給資產(chǎn)或財產(chǎn)創(chuàng)造或增加了基準(zhǔn)，而一旦資本支出調(diào)整，將決定出售或轉(zhuǎn)讓時的稅務(wù)責(zé)任。

4.制造費(fèi)用：企業(yè)可以根據(jù)自身需要，對成本構(gòu)成項目進(jìn)行適當(dāng)調(diào)整。

注4：digital natives 從80年代就開始接觸PC的人，現(xiàn)在通常都已過不惑之年。90年代中國PC進(jìn)入普及階段的用戶，現(xiàn)在也都30出頭。這些人經(jīng)歷了模擬時代(機(jī)械時代)的種種生活方式和工具，他們試著去轉(zhuǎn)變自己的使用習(xí)慣和思維方式，這些人可稱為“數(shù)字移民(Digital Immigrants)”。然而1985年之后出生的人，則大不相同：他們成長的年代，已經(jīng)是數(shù)字化的年代。他們屬于天生數(shù)字(Born Digital)，而且習(xí)慣且依賴連接世界(Live Connected)。這類人稱為第一代“數(shù)字原住民(Digital Native)”。A digital native is a person who was born after the general implementation of digital technology, and as a result, has had a familiarity with digital technologies such as computers, the Internet, mobile phones,and digital audio players over their entire lives.A digital immigrant is an individual who was born before the existence of digital technology and adopted it to some extent later.Alternatively, this term can describe people born in the latter 1970s or later, as the Digital Age began at that time;but in most cases the term focuses on people who grew up with 21st Century technology.This term has been used in several different contexts, such as education(Bennett, Maton & Kervin 2008)(in association with the term New Millennium Learners(OECD 2008)).More complicated than you think 比你想象的復(fù)雜

A new, giant virus is confounding old certainties 新的、巨型病毒正在挑戰(zhàn)人類的思維定勢 Oct 28th 2010

In that context, the discovery by Curtis Suttle of the University of British Columbia and his colleagues of a critter they propose to call Cafeteria roenbergensis virus, or CroV, should not be surprising.But for those brought up on a textbook definition of what a virus is, it is still a bit of a shock.For CroV is not a very viruslike virus.It has 544 genes, compared with the dozen or so that most viruses sport.And it may be able to make its own proteins—a task that viruses usually delegate to the molecular machinery of the cells they infect.從這個意義上講，英屬哥倫比亞大學(xué)的Curtis Suttle和他的同事發(fā)現(xiàn)的一種新生物，不應(yīng)該太出人意料。他們建議將其命名為Cafeteria roenbergensis病毒，或CroV。但是對于那些從小到大就熟悉課本對病毒的定義的人而言，這還是讓人有點(diǎn)兒讓他們震驚。因為CroV是一種不太象病毒的病毒。它有544個基因，而大多數(shù)病毒只有十幾個。此外，它還可能制造自己的蛋白質(zhì)—而病毒通常將這一任務(wù)交給自己感染的細(xì)胞由其通過分子機(jī)械功能來完成。CroV, as its full name suggests, is a parasite of Cafeteria roenbergensis, a single-celled planktonic organism that was itself discovered only in 1988.Despite the recentness of its discovery, C.roenbergensis is one of the commonest creatures on the planet.It is also reckoned by some, given that it hunts down and eats bacteria, to be the most abundant predator on Earth.It is found in every ocean.The samples of C.roenbergensis from which Dr Suttle and his team extracted their quarry were collected off the coast of Texas.CroV，正如其名字所表示的一樣，是Cafeteria roenbergensis的一種寄生蟲，而前者則是一種人們于1988年發(fā)現(xiàn)的以浮游生物為食的單細(xì)胞生物。盡管其發(fā)現(xiàn)歷史不長，Cafeteria roenbergensis是我們這個星球上最常見的物種之一。此外，由于它獵殺、捕食其他細(xì)菌，有人據(jù)此推斷它是地球上數(shù)量最多的捕食者。各大洋都能見到其身影。Scuttle和他的團(tuán)隊從中發(fā)現(xiàn)CroV的Cafeteria roenbergensis的樣品就是來自德州海岸的海水。

To see a world in a grain of sand 從一粒沙子看到一個世界

That quarry’s nature, reported this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is not a complete surprise.A larger virus, called Mimivirus, which lives in freshwater amoebas, turned up in 2003 and a few other, similar, viruses have been found since then.But CroV is by far the biggest to come out of the sea.本周的《美國國家科學(xué)院院刊》報道了這一新發(fā)現(xiàn)病毒的性質(zhì)，這也并非完全出人意料。因為另一個比較大稱為“Mimivirus”的病毒，是一種生活在淡水中變形蟲，在2003年就被人發(fā)現(xiàn)，還有其他幾個類似的病毒之后也相繼被人發(fā)現(xiàn)。但是CroV是來自海洋的最大的病毒。

About a third of CroV’s genes are similar to Mimivirus genes, suggesting they share a distant ancestor.On the other hand, two-thirds are not.A significant chunk of them seem to have been copied from bacteria.But the majority are unique, and previously unknown to science.A whole new chapter of life, in other words, has been opened.CroV的基因中，約有三分之一同Mimivirus基因類似，說明它們之間都擁有共同的祖先。從另一方面講，它們之間還有三分之二的基因不同。其中很大一部分似乎是從細(xì)菌中復(fù)制的。但大多數(shù)基因在科學(xué)上特性明顯，屬于新發(fā)現(xiàn)的基因。換句話說，人類已經(jīng)翻開了生命研究的新篇章。

Science and Technology

譯者心得：

2.幾個詞匯的處理。首句中的“matter”很多人譯為“事情”，“是關(guān)于什么什么的事情”，這樣的譯文讀起來很羅嗦，其實(shí)擔(dān)子大一些，置之不理，中文意思也出來了。另外，“Viruses have genes, can reproduce and are subject to the evolutionary pressures imposed by natural selection.That is enough for biology to claim them”本段中的“Claim”不太好翻，for biology to claim them，讓生物學(xué)對它們有主張，讓生物學(xué)認(rèn)領(lǐng)它們，其實(shí)就是“它們有資格屬于生物范疇”的意思，如果直譯，估計譯者本人也覺得不是滋味。

3.一個復(fù)雜句子的處理?！癐n that context, the discovery by Curtis Suttle of the University of British Columbia and his colleagues of a critter they propose to call Cafeteria roenbergensis virus, or CroV, should not be surprising”，先看一下直翻，“從這個意義上講，由英屬哥倫比亞大學(xué)的Curtis Suttle和他的同事發(fā)現(xiàn)的一種他們建議命名為Cafeteria roenbergensis 病毒的生物，或CroV，不應(yīng)該太出人意料?！边@樣的句子不能說不對，但但起來非常羅嗦，翻譯腔太強(qiáng)，因此，在準(zhǔn)確表述愿意的前提下，我譯為“從這個意義上講，英屬哥倫比亞大學(xué)的Curtis Suttle和他的同事發(fā)現(xiàn)的一種新生物，不應(yīng)該太出人意料。他們建議將其命名為Cafeteria roenbergensis病毒，或CroV?！睂⒃洳馂閮删?，使其更符合中文行文習(xí)慣。這在翻譯中很常見，畢竟譯出的東西是讓中國人看的。

4.一個簡單句型的處理?！癐t is found in every ocean”，這句話很簡單，它被發(fā)現(xiàn)于各大洋，它存在于各大洋等等，都不錯。但鑒于前文出現(xiàn)“hunts down and eats bacteria, to be the most abundant predator ”這類動作性很強(qiáng)的語句，我們不妨在這里也“生動”一些，譯為“各大洋都能見到其身影”。

5.關(guān)于邏輯性。翻譯其實(shí)就是理解外語的邏輯性，然后將其外語按照譯入語的邏輯性進(jìn)行翻譯。本文中CroV和Cafeteria roenbergensis什么關(guān)系？不要被名字嚇倒，注意這句“CroV, as its full name suggests, is a parasite of Cafeteria roenbergensis, a single-celled planktonic organism that was itself discovered only in 1988”，說得是CroV其實(shí)是寄生在Cafeteria roenbergensis上的一種生物，是宿主身上的一種病毒。關(guān)系弄清了，下文接著講的都是宿主Cafeteria roenbergensis的事情，它們?nèi)绾尾妒?，生存在什么地方。這其實(shí)也就間接介紹了CroV。

6.名言警句的引用?！督?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》的文章經(jīng)常不經(jīng)意間引用一些名言警句、詩詞歌賦，恰當(dāng)?shù)乇硎銎湟饬x。本文不例外?！癟o see a world in a grain of sand”在本文中就有類似中文“麻雀雖小，五臟俱全”的意思，即使是一粒沙子，那上面生存著蕓蕓眾生。建議大家看一部動畫片，“Horton hears a who”，里邊講的是一頭大象如何同一朵蒲公英上的生命群體溝通的故事。這句話來自英國詩人William Blake的一首詩： “A Grain of Sand 一粒沙子

總之，翻譯需要什么都懂，否則譯出的東西要么讓人如墜五里霧中，要么讓人笑掉大牙，因此，譯完之后，多次校對，是必不可少的步驟。

Raúl the pragmatist 實(shí)用主義者勞爾

Bold changes intended to preserve Cuban communism may herald the beginning of its end 旨在保護(hù)古巴共產(chǎn)主義的大膽變革反而有可能變成了掘墓人

Nov 11th 2010

SHORTLY after he took charge of Cuba from his ailing brother, Fidel, in 2006, Raúl Castro declared that his country’s moribund communist economy needed to change.But his failure to make anything more than marginal adjustments disappointed hopes that he would follow Chinese and Vietnamese communist leaders in combining capitalist economics and growing social freedom with continued party control.勞爾.卡斯特羅2006年從他罹病的兄長—菲德爾卡.斯特羅手中接過了執(zhí)掌古巴的大權(quán)，不久之后他宣稱祖國的經(jīng)濟(jì)處于垂死邊緣，亟需改變。但他最大的失敗在于只進(jìn)行不管痛癢的調(diào)整，這讓人們的期望大大落空；大家原以為他可以效法中國和越南的共產(chǎn)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，將資本主義經(jīng)濟(jì)及日益增長的社會自由性與黨的持續(xù)控制有效的結(jié)合在一起。

This week Mr Castro convened a much-postponed Congress of the Communist Party for late April: its job will be to bless the new economic model(see article).Meanwhile, the government has released more than 50 political prisoners.Two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, is Cuban communism finally on the way out? 本周卡斯特羅先生召開了從4月底一直推遲到現(xiàn)在的共產(chǎn)黨代表大會，會議的主旨是批準(zhǔn)全新的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式歌；與此同時，政府已經(jīng)釋放了超過50名政治犯。在柏林墻倒塌20年后的今天，難道古巴共產(chǎn)主義最終還是難逃過時的命數(shù)？

Any answer must be hedged about with caveats.The economists advising Mr Castro are barred from talking of “reform”.In its guidelines for the party congress, the leadership declares that “only socialism [ie, communism] is capable of overcoming our difficulties and preserving the gains of the revolution” and that in the new economy “planning will be paramount, not the market.” No Cuban official has matched Deng Xiaoping’s embrace of “market socialism”, let alone his(perhaps apocryphal)injunction that “to get rich is glorious”.The welcome release of prisoners seems merely to have been a move to deflect outside criticism after the death of one of them in a hunger strike, rather than a first step in dismantling the island’s police state.Indeed the army is playing a bigger role in the economy and in government.任何答案都必須謹(jǐn)小慎微。給卡斯特羅先生提供咨詢的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們被禁止談?wù)摳母?。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)在會議綱領(lǐng)中指示“只有社會主義，暨共產(chǎn)主義才有能力克服當(dāng)前的艱難困苦，并保持革命取得的勝利果實(shí)”；同時還指出，在新經(jīng)濟(jì)模式中“占據(jù)最高地位的是計劃，而不是市場”。沒有一個古巴官員可以達(dá)到鄧小平的高度，領(lǐng)悟到“社會主義市場”的真諦，更不必說他“致富最光榮”的命令了（也許這是杜撰出來的）。在一名囚徒因絕食斗爭送命后，深受歡迎的釋放囚犯行為似乎只是為了轉(zhuǎn)移外界的批判，而非邁出了廢除本島極權(quán)國家的第一步。實(shí)際上軍界才是在經(jīng)濟(jì)和政府中更為重要的角色。

Yet Raúl’s reforms go much further than Fidel’s reluctant acceptance of foreign investment and limited self-employment after the collapse of the Soviet Union, partially reversed on the appearance of a new benefactor, Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela.For the first time since the 1960s Cubans will be able to employ other Cubans(even though the constitution bans such “exploitation”).Many of the rules under which these new businesses will operate are still being drawn up.But it seems that Cubans will now be able to get loans and rent and buy property.Other changes are likely to follow.Mr Castro talks of gradually eliminating the free food rations that Cubans get, and moving towards targeted social assistance(as elsewhere in Latin America).The corollary is that wages will have to go up—and increasingly they will be set in the market.蘇聯(lián)解體后，菲德爾極不情愿的接納了境外投資和有限的自由職業(yè)者；然而勞爾的改革比他的兄長深入很多，在委內(nèi)瑞拉的大恩人查韋斯登臺后，部分舉措與從前大相徑庭。從上世紀(jì)60年代至今，盡管憲法禁止這類“剝削”，但古巴人首次可以對本國公民進(jìn)行雇傭。很多對新型企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營進(jìn)行規(guī)范的法規(guī)還正在規(guī)劃中；但古巴人似乎已經(jīng)可以獲得貸款、出租房屋以及購買不動產(chǎn)。一些其他的變革也很有可能緊隨其后?？ㄋ固亓_提及逐漸取消古巴民眾正在獲得的免費(fèi)的食物配給，而是同拉美其他地區(qū)一樣，向著計劃好的社會救濟(jì)發(fā)展。必然出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果是工資不得不上調(diào)，并且日益受到市場的控制。

In all this Mr Castro is bowing to reality.He has been withering in his criticism of the featherbedding that has bankrupted the state.He has also refused to blame the American economic embargo for problems which he rightly says are self-inflicted.His pragmatism has finally won out against his brother’s doctrinaire Utopianism.卡斯特羅在這些方面都屈從于現(xiàn)實(shí)：他對于導(dǎo)致國家破產(chǎn)的額外雇工進(jìn)行了極尖刻的批判；同時也拒絕對美國采取貿(mào)易禁運(yùn)所造成的問題進(jìn)行批判，他認(rèn)為這些問題都是自尋煩惱。在卡斯特羅兄弟的較量中，勞爾的使用主義最終戰(zhàn)勝了菲德爾教條的烏托邦主義。

Apart from the economy, the other big task facing Mr Castro, who is 79(and Fidel 84), is to start handing over power to a younger generation.That may come after the party congress next year.In the meantime, his new boldness represents an opportunity for those who hope that Cuba will eventually join the rest of Latin America in accepting democracy and the market economy, for once the market’s green shoots appear they tend to flourish.除了經(jīng)濟(jì)問題以外，現(xiàn)年79歲了勞爾（菲德爾已經(jīng)84歲了）所面臨的更艱巨的任務(wù)是開始著手將全力傳遞到年輕一代手中，不過這將是明年黨代會以后的事情了。同時，對于那些希望古巴最終可以加入拉美其他國家的行列，接受民主和市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的人來說，他果敢的新政代表著希望；只要市場經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)一抹新綠，必將是一派繁花似錦的景象。

How to help kill communism 怎樣搭把手，滅了共產(chǎn)主義

Outsiders should take their lead from the common position that Europe adopted in 1996, which allows it to help in “the progressive and irreversible opening of the Cuban economy” while predicating closer friendship on moves towards democracy.Offering training and credit—as Brazil has done—to Cuba’s incipient private sector would be a good move.Rewarding Cuba for releasing prisoners who should never have been locked up in the first place—as Miguel Moratinos, Spain’s recently sacked foreign minister, wanted—would not.局外人應(yīng)該從1996年歐洲采用的共同立場中著手，旨在幫助“古巴進(jìn)行先進(jìn)且不可逆的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革”，同時在走向民主的道路上還能建立日益深厚的友誼。象巴西一樣給古巴的早期私營經(jīng)濟(jì)提供培訓(xùn)和信貸，不失為一個很好的嘗試。如果象最近遭解雇的西班牙外長Miguel Moratinos,所希望的那樣，古巴因為釋放那些原本就不應(yīng)該遭到逮捕的犯人而得到獎勵，就不是一個好的嘗試。

America’s embargo remains as futile and counter-productive as ever.Although Barack Obama has commendably reversed George W.Bush’s restrictions on visits and remittances by Cuban-Americans, Republican control of Congress will make it even less likely that the embargo will be dismantled.That’s a great shame.The embargo has allowed the Castros to pose as proud Cuban nationalists standing up to a bullying hegemon and thus helped them cling to power.If change is at last under way it is despite the embargo, not because of it.美國的貿(mào)易禁運(yùn)一如既往的無效甚至是達(dá)到了反效果。奧巴馬已經(jīng)很好的撤銷了小布什針對古巴裔美國人實(shí)施的拜訪及匯款禁令，但共和黨掌舵的國會讓接觸貿(mào)易禁運(yùn)的可能性變得更加渺茫；這將是非常大的遺憾。貿(mào)易禁運(yùn)讓卡斯特羅兄弟擺出一副古巴民族主義者的英雄形象，直面恃強(qiáng)凌弱的至高強(qiáng)權(quán)；他們更是借此緊握政權(quán)。如果說改變正在發(fā)生，那這些改變不是因貿(mào)易禁運(yùn)而起，甚至無視它的存在。Lebanon and the region 黎巴嫩與中東地區(qū)

Can there be justice as well as stability? 既要正義也要穩(wěn)定，可能嗎？ As the UN prepares to announce indictments for a series of murders and assassinations, the mood in Lebanon is getting edgy 聯(lián)合國準(zhǔn)備宣布針對一系列謀殺案的起訴，黎巴嫩人的心情日漸緊張

Nov 11th 2010 | Cairo

IT IS the strangest of courtroom dramas.Distinguished judges and a prosecutor sit in a sleepy suburb of the Dutch capital, The Hague.The case has plenty of victims: 61 people, including Lebanon’s then prime minister, Rafik Hariri, were murdered and 494 injured in a spree of bombings and assassinations that racked Lebanon from 2004 to 2008.But though the UN-sponsored Special Tribunal for Lebanon has yet to convene or to charge anyone for the crimes, the impending trial threatens not only to reignite a firestorm in Lebanon, but also to spread sectarian tensions across the Middle East and to vex relations even more between the region’s big adversaries, Iran and the United States.If Lebanon were to blow up again, Israel and Syria could well step in once more, turning the current Middle East peace process into a slide back towards war.這是一部最為怪誕的法庭劇。尊貴的法官大人們與檢察官坐在荷蘭首都海牙郊外昏昏欲睡。此案受害者甚多：從2004至2008年間發(fā)生了一系列瘋狂的爆炸和暗殺事件，包括黎巴嫩前總理拉菲克?哈里里（Rafik Hariri）在內(nèi)共有61人被害，494人受傷。這些事件使黎巴嫩陷入痛苦之中。盡管聯(lián)合國成立了黎巴嫩問題特別法庭，但尚未開庭或指控任何人對上述罪行負(fù)責(zé)。即將到來的開庭審判不僅可能引燃黎巴嫩國內(nèi)的火藥桶，而且還可能將教派沖突擴(kuò)散到整個中東地區(qū)，對本地區(qū)最大的一對冤家——伊朗和美國的關(guān)系火上澆油。如果黎巴嫩內(nèi)戰(zhàn)再次爆發(fā)，以色列和敘利亞也很有可能再次介入，如此將導(dǎo)致目前的中東和平進(jìn)程發(fā)生逆行，滑向另一場中東戰(zhàn)爭。

Few foresaw this when the UN Security Council ordered an investigation into the car-bombing of February 2005 in Beirut, the Lebanese capital, when Mr Hariri, a billionaire Sunni who was seeking his sixth turn at running the government, was assassinated along with 22 others.That sparked a furious popular backlash, prompting the exit of Syrian troops who had lingered, increasingly unwanted, to enforce peace after Lebanon’s civil war of 1975-90.Then followed the electoral triumph of Mr Hariri’s pro-Western coalition, known as the March 14th alliance, after the date of a big anti-Syrian demonstration.Many Lebanese, as well as the UN’s first investigating team, assumed that Syria had arranged Mr Hariri’s murder, and expected the case’s swift resolution.2005年2月在黎巴嫩首都貝魯特發(fā)生了一起汽車炸彈爆炸事件，當(dāng)時伊斯蘭遜尼派的億萬富翁哈里里正在尋求第六次就任黎巴嫩總理一職，在這起暗殺中哈里里與其他22人一同遇難。當(dāng)聯(lián)合國安理會下令對這起事件進(jìn)行調(diào)查時，沒有任何人預(yù)見到其后果會如何。這一事件引發(fā)了公眾憤怒的反應(yīng)，促使了敘利亞的撤軍行動。黎巴嫩于1975至1990年間爆發(fā)了內(nèi)戰(zhàn)，敘利亞隨后派出了這支維和部隊，這支部隊盡管愈來愈不受歡迎，但之前一直賴著不走。接著，在隨后進(jìn)行的一場大規(guī)模反敘利亞示威游行后，哈里里的親西方盟友，所謂的“3?14聯(lián)盟”獲得了選戰(zhàn)的勝利。許多黎巴嫩人以及聯(lián)合國派出調(diào)查此案的第一個調(diào)查團(tuán)都認(rèn)為是敘利亞策劃了哈里里的謀殺案，并預(yù)期此案能夠得到迅速解決。

It was not to be.Over the next three years sporadic bombings and shootings targeted prominent backers of the March 14th alliance, Christian areas, and Lebanese officers involved in the investigation.Even as the investigators’ brief widened to include these later attacks, their credibility fell when it emerged that key witnesses implicating Syria had apparently made up their testimony.但這是不可能的。在隨后的三年內(nèi)又陸續(xù)出現(xiàn)了幾起針對“3?14聯(lián)盟”支持者中有影響力的人士、基督教派系人士及參與調(diào)查此案的黎巴嫩官員的爆炸和槍擊事件。正當(dāng)調(diào)查人員們將調(diào)查范圍擴(kuò)大到后來的這些襲擊事件時，人們對調(diào)查小組的信任卻下降了。因為此時關(guān)鍵證人暗示敘利亞顯然是編造了證詞。

Meanwhile, March 14th’s pro-Syrian adversaries, led by Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shia party-cum-militia which emerged strengthened from a war with Israel in July 2006, mounted a tenacious and effective campaign to challenge the pro-Western faction.This culminated in an invasion of central Beirut in May 2008 by Hizbullah gunmen that forced March 14th to accept a power-sharing deal.Hizbullah and its allies thereby secured a veto over government decisions but at the cost of deepening the bitter schism that now largely pits Lebanon’s Sunnis and Shias, each with nearly one-third of the population, against each other, and splits the third who are Christian into sparring factions backing one side or another.此時，“3?14聯(lián)盟”的對手，由真主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的親敘利亞的黎巴嫩什葉派政黨暨民兵組織通過2006年7月與以色列的一場戰(zhàn)爭而強(qiáng)大起來，他們展開了一場挑戰(zhàn)親西方派別的頑強(qiáng)而有效的運(yùn)動。這場奪權(quán)運(yùn)動的高潮出現(xiàn)在2008年5月，真主黨武裝人員闖入貝魯特市中心，用武力迫使“3?14聯(lián)盟”接受一項權(quán)力分享協(xié)議。真主黨及其盟友從而獲得了對政府所作決定的否決權(quán)，但其代價是加深了教派的分裂，使黎巴嫩的遜尼派和什葉派間的深溝難以與逾越。這兩個派系各占有黎巴嫩近1/3的人口，雙方水火不相容，并使黎巴嫩另1/3信仰基督教的人口也分裂成兩派，他們支持伊斯蘭派系的一方或另一方，爭吵不休。

Since then, as the tribunal’s work has dragged on, many Lebanese have grown weary of the whole process.Lately, this weariness has turned to alarm.The court is expected to issue an indictment soon.Leaks strongly suggest it will not accuse Syria but rather senior officers of Hizbullah itself.The implications of such a charge are explosive.The party has long exalted its role as a heroic protector of Lebanon, justifying its impressive arsenal on the grounds, however implausible to outsiders, that its weapons are trained solely on Israeli invaders and not fellow Lebanese.自那以后，隨著特別法庭的開庭審判一拖再拖，許多黎巴嫩人已經(jīng)對整個過程感到了厭倦。最近，這種厭倦的情緒變得讓人吃驚。預(yù)計該法庭很快就會簽發(fā)一項起訴書。據(jù)透漏出的消息，這份起訴書很可能不會指控敘利亞，而將指控真主黨高級官員為暗殺事件的主謀。這樣一份起訴書將產(chǎn)生爆炸性的后果。真主黨長期以來一直自封為的黎巴嫩英勇的保護(hù)者，將之作為維持其龐大武裝的冠冕堂皇的理由，但外人難以相信其槍口只是對準(zhǔn)以色列侵略者而不是黎巴嫩同胞的說法。

Along with Hizbullah’s devoted followers, many non-Shias readily accept such arguments.But should Hizbullah be proven to have mounted a systematic campaign of extermination against Sunni Muslim and Christian political opponents in Lebanon, the party’s reputation would be severely damaged, along with that of its main backer, Iran, whose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, made a recent festively triumphant visit to Lebanon.與真主黨的忠實(shí)追隨者一道，許多非什葉派黎巴嫩人也準(zhǔn)備接受這種說法。真主黨策劃了針對黎巴嫩遜尼派穆斯林及基督教政治對手的系統(tǒng)消滅行動一旦獲得證實(shí)，該黨連同其主要后臺——伊朗的聲望都將受到嚴(yán)重?fù)p害。伊朗總統(tǒng)內(nèi)賈德最近剛剛結(jié)束了黎巴嫩節(jié)日一般喜氣洋洋的訪問。

Mr Hariri’s son Saad, who now leads March 14th as Lebanon’s prime minister, has quietly reassured Hizbullah that he would publicly insist that any of its members implicated in the killings would be considered merely rogue actors.Conveniently also, the man most widely believed to have orchestrated the killings is dead.Imad Mughniyeh, well known since being implicated in bombings and hostage-takings during Lebanon’s civil war, headed Hizbullah’s special operations forces, and was a key link to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard before his unexplained assassination in Damascus in February 2008.Curiously, the killings in Lebanon stopped abruptly at the same time.哈里里的兒子薩阿德現(xiàn)在是“3?14聯(lián)盟”的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，也是黎巴嫩現(xiàn)任總理，他私下向真主黨保證他將公開堅持其觀點(diǎn)，即任何與這起暗殺事件有牽連的真主黨成員都將被視為僅僅是制造了一起無賴行為。更便當(dāng)?shù)氖?，人們普遍認(rèn)為是精心策劃了這起暗殺事件的人已經(jīng)死了。伊邁德?穆尼耶（Imad Mughniyeh）是真主黨特種作戰(zhàn)部隊的首腦，也是真主黨同伊朗革命衛(wèi)隊保持聯(lián)系的一個關(guān)鍵人物，他以黎巴嫩內(nèi)戰(zhàn)期間制造了一系列爆炸和劫持人質(zhì)事件而臭名昭著，2008年2月他在發(fā)生在大馬士革的一場難以解釋的暗殺中身亡。令人奇怪的是，同一時間內(nèi)黎巴嫩的暗殺事件突然停止了。

But Hizbullah, apparently confident in its strength, rejects any suggestion of its involvement.Instead, its leaders have attacked the tribunal with growing vigour, accusing it of being an American tool and of ignoring purported evidence of Israel’s hand in the killings.In Beirut last month party loyalists posing as a pack of angry veiled women scratched, punched and bit members of a team from the UN investigation in southern Beirut.Hizbullah leaders followed this staged provocation with denunciations of the UN’s supposed affront to the virtue of Lebanese womanhood, declaring that henceforth any co-operation with the tribunal would be equated to collaboration with the “Zionist enemy”.真主黨顯然是對自身實(shí)力信心滿滿，拒絕接受任何它參與了謀殺的指控。相反，其領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人攻擊特別法庭的調(diào)門不斷升高，指責(zé)該法庭為美國的工具，對傳說中以色列制造了這起謀殺的證據(jù)不予采信。上個月在貝魯特，一群真主黨的支持者扮成蒙著面紗的憤怒婦女，對來自貝魯特南部的聯(lián)合國調(diào)查人員是又撓又咬又打。真主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在這起挑釁事件后譴責(zé)聯(lián)合國調(diào)查人員冒犯了黎巴嫩婦女的高貴操守，聲稱今后任何與特別法庭的合作行為都將被視為與“猶太復(fù)國主義敵人”同流合污。

The party’s allies have made a noisy issue of the initial false testimony cited by investigators and long since discarded, in an effort to discredit the entire judicial process.More ominously, voices sympathetic to Hizbullah whisper that its militia, widely seen as far tougher than Lebanon’s ill-equipped conscript army, is ready to take swift control of ports, borders and main cities.Such a move might well provoke Israeli generals, whose itch to tame the Shia party is as intense as it was when they launched their fierce but inconclusive war in 2006, after a spat between Hizbullah and an Israeli border patrol.真主黨的盟友們抓住調(diào)查人員最初采信了偽證的問題小題大做，鬧得沸沸揚(yáng)揚(yáng)。其實(shí)這個偽證被廢棄已久，他們這樣做的目的無非是千方百計想抹黑整個司法調(diào)查過程。更嚴(yán)重的是，真主黨的同情者們透漏說，真主黨民兵武裝正在準(zhǔn)備采取行動以迅速控制黎巴嫩的港口、邊境和主要城市。真主黨民兵武裝的實(shí)力遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過黎巴嫩裝備低劣的正規(guī)軍，這已經(jīng)成了人們的普遍看法。此舉很可能會激怒以色列的將軍們，他們對馴服什葉派武裝的沖動與發(fā)動2006年那場戰(zhàn)爭時同樣強(qiáng)烈。那場戰(zhàn)爭的起因是真主黨武裝與以色列邊境巡邏隊間出現(xiàn)的摩擦。戰(zhàn)爭的過程非常慘烈，但無果而終。

In Lebanon’s polarised landscape Hizbullah’s large core of loyalists is unlikely to be shaken, even by firm evidence of the party’s involvement in the killing of Mr Hariri and others.Some of its allies, however, especially in the Christian camp, may prove less immune to repulsion.For such a small country, even one with such a violent past, 555 dead and wounded is a big number.Lebanese nerves are jangling.在黎巴嫩涇渭分明的政治版圖中，即使有明確的證據(jù)證實(shí)真主黨卷入了暗殺哈里里和其他人的行動，真主黨的大批核心支持者也不太可能出現(xiàn)動搖。然而真主黨的一些盟友，尤其是基督教派營壘中的盟友，也許會因此而出現(xiàn)離心的傾向。對于黎巴嫩這樣一個小國，即使過去暴力事件不斷，555人的死傷也絕對不是一個小數(shù)目。這件事正在刺激著黎巴嫩人的神經(jīng)。

Pros clicking at war An American firm wants to turn computer games into a global spectator sport

電腦游戲

職業(yè)選手的鼠標(biāo)大戰(zhàn)

一家美國公司試圖將電腦游戲變成世界級的觀賞性體育項目

Oct 28th 2010

Arriving for a big e-sports match參加電競大賽

THE first round is over and 32 of the world’s best professional computer-game players are through to the next stage of the Global Starcraft 2 League being played in Seoul, South Korea.Over the next two weeks the players, including the reigning champion, Kim Won-ki(better known by his online moniker “FruitDealer”), will marshal their armies, ponder their strategies and crush their foes.The finalists will play in front of an audience of thousands(and hundreds of thousands more online)for an $87,000 first prize and the respect due the best Starcraft 2 player on the planet.第一輪比賽硝煙落定，世界上最優(yōu)秀的32名職業(yè)電腦游戲選手登上了新的舞臺，參加在韓國首爾舉行的星際爭霸2世界聯(lián)賽。衛(wèi)冕冠軍金宏基（大家更熟悉他在線上使用的ID“水果販子”）也在這批選手當(dāng)中。在接下來的兩周時間里，他們將運(yùn)籌帷幄，揮師征戰(zhàn)，直指敵酋。進(jìn)入決賽的選手將在數(shù)千名觀眾（以及數(shù)以十萬計的在線觀眾）面前爭奪8.7萬美元的獎金，以及全世界最好的星際2選手這一頭銜。

South Korean fans watch games broadcast on cable television and the players are celebrities.Teams flush with sponsorship money pay stars salaries on top of their prize money.(One player, Lee Yoon-Yeol, aka “Nada”, is rumoured to earn around $200,000 a year;a journeyman player might make $20,000).Now Activision Blizzard, the California-based company that developed the Starcraft games, is keen to spread the popularity of e-sports in the West.韓國的電競愛好者通過有線電視觀看比賽，電競選手也都成了名人。戰(zhàn)隊通過贊助商籌集資金，再按照獲得的獎金為明星玩家發(fā)薪水。據(jù)稱，綽號Nada的選手李云龍每年大約能賺20萬美元，而一位新人選手也差不多能拿2萬美元左右。星際爭霸的開發(fā)者，總部位于加州的動視-暴雪公司正致力于在西方提升電子競爭的流行度。

in mind and has flown famous Korean players to America to play an exhibition match.GomTV, the Korean firm that runs the league, is providing English commentary on games and it has opened the tournament to any non-Korean player that can manage to qualify.這種努力是否能夠獲得成果？職業(yè)電子競爭在西方也已經(jīng)開展了不少年頭了，在歐洲有電子體育聯(lián)賽（ESL），美國則有游戲大聯(lián)盟（MLG），然而其發(fā)展程度始終沒有達(dá)到韓國的水平。動視-暴雪認(rèn)為，隨著寬頻網(wǎng)絡(luò)的發(fā)展，在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上轉(zhuǎn)播比賽會變得更加容易，這種局面也會隨之改變。在星際爭霸2的設(shè)計中，公司始終以競技性為核心理念，還邀請韓國選手到美國打了一場表演賽。韓國方面負(fù)責(zé)運(yùn)營這次表演賽的GomTV公司提供了英文解說，并表示支持所有非韓國選手參加預(yù)選賽。

Advertisers are attracted by the ability of e-sports to target an audience with plenty of spending money;Sony Ericsson is sponsoring the tournament in Seoul.The average American gamer is in his 30s and well-educated.With sponsorship comes the money necessary to attract players to pursue computer gaming as a career, says Sean Plott(better known as “Day[9]”), an American player-turned-commentator.Intel recently sponsored a European tournament with a $15,000 prize pool.Perhaps the biggest obstacle to exporting e-sports to the West is a lingering belief that playing computer games is not a proper job—an idea that would no doubt sound familiar to pioneers of professional sports from tennis to snooker.由于電子競技面向的觀眾具有相當(dāng)?shù)南M(fèi)能力，廣告商也非常感興趣。索尼-愛麗信贊助了在首爾舉行的比賽。美國的游戲玩家平均年齡都在30歲以上，且受過良好的教育。Sean Plott（即著名選手Day[9]）曾經(jīng)是一名電競選手，現(xiàn)在改行做了解說員。他表示隨著贊助商的加入，電子競技會有更多的資金來源，也會鼓勵電腦游戲的玩家將電子競技作為自己的職業(yè)。因特爾最近就為一項歐洲電競賽事提供了15000美元贊助作為資金。也許將電子競技引入西方國家的最大障礙，是人們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為玩電腦游戲并不能算一份真正的工作。這種想法聽起來并不陌生，在網(wǎng)球和斯諾克這些職業(yè)體育的發(fā)展過程中，其行業(yè)先鋒無疑也聽到過類似的聲音。

Silver lining 銀光閃閃

Gold's poor relation is on a winning streak 黃金的窮二弟闊起來了 Sep 30th 2010

AT THE first Olympic games of the modern era in 1896, winners were awarded silver medals.Since then the metal has had to get used to second-class status.But for some time now silver prices have been outpacing those of gold(see chart), its flashier neighbour on the periodic table.On September 29th silver exceeded $22 an ounce, a price not seen since 1980 when the Hunt brothers, a pair of Texan oil barons, unwisely attempted to corner the market.Then silver spiked as high as $50 an ounce before the strategy unravelled, sending the price crashing and the Hunts back to the oil business.32 在1896年第一屆現(xiàn)代奧運(yùn)會上，冠軍獲得的獎牌是銀質(zhì)的。從那以后，白銀便淪為了老二的象征。不過，近來銀價上揚(yáng)之速已超過黃金（見圖，銀價一直壓著它在元素周期表上的光鮮鄰居一頭）。9月29日，銀價突破22美元/盎司。上一次白銀達(dá)到如此高度還要追溯到1980年，當(dāng)時德州石油大亨亨特兄弟（Hunt brothers）妄圖操縱銀市，使銀價一度站上了50美元/盎司。接著，他們的如意算盤破產(chǎn)，銀價隨之崩盤，兄弟倆只能回去繼續(xù)做石油生意。

Whereas around 25-30% of gold is bought by investors, only about a tenth of global silver production goes the same way.Roughly half the world’s silver goes to industrial users(the balance is accounted for by jewellery and other silverware), although their identity has undergone a huge shift over the past decade.大約25~30%的黃金是由投資者購買的，而白銀的這一比例只有大約10%。大約有一半的白銀被用于工業(yè)用途（其余則被制成首飾和銀器），不過數(shù)十年來用途不盡相同。

Demand for silver is likely to keep rising in developing countries in particular: China, which used to export the metal, now imports it.The same cannot be said for supply.As Michael Lewis of Deutsche Bank points out, three-quarters of the world’s supply comes as a by-product from copper, lead and zinc mines.So ramping up production is difficult.Total supplies of the metal in 2009, at 27,650 tonnes, were barely higher than in 2004.Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal.發(fā)展中國家對白銀的需求可能持續(xù)上升。特別是中國，已由白銀出口國變?yōu)檫M(jìn)口國。供給方的情形則非如此。德意志銀行的邁克爾?劉易斯（Michael Lewis）指出，白銀供給中有75%是銅、鉛和鋅礦開采過程中的副產(chǎn)品。因此大舉增加產(chǎn)量并不容易。2009年，白銀總供給量為27 650噸，只比2004年略高?；蛟S未來運(yùn)動員拿塊銀牌回家也不會感到多沮喪了。

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Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal.或許未來運(yùn)動員拿塊銀牌回家也會感到多沮喪了。

翻譯反了吧！

Ambac's fall Ambac倒閉

And then there was one

已成過去

The bond-insurance industry struggles for survival

債券保險業(yè)掙扎求存

Nov 4th 2010

AMERICA’S municipal-bond market is worth around $2.8 trillion.But “monoline” insurers, which insure municipal bonds issued by American cities and counties, are barely breathing.On November 1st the industry edged closer to extinction when one of the largest bond insurers, Ambac, announced that it would skip an interest payment.The company could file for bankruptcy by the end of the month.美國的市政債券市場市值約為2.8萬億。但為美國市縣所發(fā)市政債券提供保險的單一險種保險公司只能茍延殘喘。11月1日，當(dāng)最大的債券保險公司之一Ambac宣布停付一期利息時，這個行業(yè)離灰飛煙滅又近了一點(diǎn)。該公司月底前可能申請破產(chǎn)。

It didn’t need an oracle to predict Ambac’s demise.Earlier this year a state regulator siphoned off some of Ambac’s most toxic assets and put them into “rehabilitation”.Ambac has over $1.6 billion in debt, but only $76m in cash and short-term securities.One of its most coveted assets is its $7 billion “net operating loss tax carry forward”, which could translate into $2.5 billion in tax savings if it ever manages to turn a profit.Rob Haines of CreditSights, a research firm, does not think it will: “Ambac is a dying company with a finite life.”

預(yù)測Ambac的破產(chǎn)并非難事。今年早些時候，一家州監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)抽取Ambac的一些最為不良的資產(chǎn)，將它們投入“改造”。Ambac欠下超過16億美元的債務(wù)，但只有7.6千萬的現(xiàn)金和短期證券。該公司最遭人覬覦的資產(chǎn)之一是其70億美元的“凈營業(yè)損失免稅金額”，如果該公司有機(jī)會盈利，該免稅金額可轉(zhuǎn)換成25億美元的節(jié)稅金額。CreditSights研究公司的羅布?海恩斯（Rob Haines）認(rèn)為Ambac不會盈利：“Ambac時日無多了。”

艱難的單一險種保險公司）等債券保險公司拖延償還欠款。它們的信用等級下降，意味著發(fā)行人更不愿意向它們買保險。

In 2005 bond insurers covered around 57% of new bond issuance, but now they cover a mere 7% or so.Only one monoline remains active: Assured Guaranty, which sat out most of the structured stampede.All its pre-crisis peers are either being restructured, face litigation or are out of business.Even Warren Buffett, who entered the bond-insurance market in 2008, has pulled back.“We’re like an only child,” says Dominic Frederico, the boss of Assured Guaranty.“We don’t have anybody to play with but all the toys are ours.” Still, life isn’t all fun and games.Standard & Poor’s, a ratings agency, last month stripped the firm of its AAA rating.2005年，債券保險公司覆蓋了大約57%的新債券保險，但現(xiàn)在它們僅覆蓋大約7%。只有一家單一險種保險公司仍有活力：對結(jié)構(gòu)化浪潮淺嘗輒止的Assured Guaranty。它在危機(jī)之前的所有同行要么正在重組，要么面臨訴訟，要么破產(chǎn)。即使是2008年進(jìn)入債券保險市場的沃倫?巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也撤出?！拔覀兙拖癃?dú)生子，” Assured Guaranty的老板多米尼克?弗雷德里克（Dominic Frederico）說，“我們沒有玩伴，但所有玩具都是我們的?！比欢?，生活并非只有歡樂與游戲。評級機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾上月剝奪了該企業(yè)的AAA等級。

Some still believe there is hope for the industry.The National League of Cities, a non-profit organisation, thinks there should be a mutual insurance company owned and operated by local governments.But monolines will have to embrace a new model to succeed.Stanislas Rouyer of Moody’s, another ratings agency, says monolines need to emphasise that they provide not just insurance but also monitoring and surveillance capabilities.This would enable them to sell their wares directly to retail investors, who account for 36% of the buyer base for municipal bonds.一些人仍然認(rèn)為這個行業(yè)還有希望。非營利組織全國城市聯(lián)盟（National League of Cities）認(rèn)為應(yīng)有一家由地方政府擁有和運(yùn)營的互助保險公司。但單一險種保險公司將不得不采用新模式以求成功。另一家評級機(jī)構(gòu)穆迪公司（Moody’s）的斯丹尼斯拉斯?勞耶爾（Stanislas Rouyer）表示單一險種保險公司需要強(qiáng)調(diào)它們不僅提供保險，而且具備監(jiān)控和監(jiān)督的能力。這樣做將使它們能夠直接向占市政債券買家基數(shù)36%的散戶銷售產(chǎn)品。

There are other hurdles to jump first.The shaky finances of some municipalities could put what’s left of the industry to another huge test.Fragile issuers and nervous investors ought to be a boon to insurers.But mass defaults by cities and counties could be the final blow for Assured Guaranty and its zombie peers.還有其他障礙尚需先行跨越。一些市政府不穩(wěn)固的財務(wù)狀況可能使這個行業(yè)剩下的公司面臨另一個巨大的考驗。脆弱的發(fā)行人和緊張的投資者應(yīng)該對保險公司有所裨益。但市縣大量違約可能成為Assured Guaranty及其毫無活力的同行的致命一擊。

Finance and Economics 財經(jīng)

Oracle v SAP Oracle對陣SAP

Maintaining fees 捍衛(wèi)維護(hù)費(fèi)

A lawsuit against SAP is about more than illegal downloads 針對SAP的訟案不僅僅與非法下載有關(guān)

Nov 4th 2010

SOMETIMES a tackle says much about a match and even the entire season.This is the case with a trial that opened on November 1st, pitting the world’s two biggest makers of corporate software, Oracle and SAP, against each other.The dispute goes back to SAP’s purchase in 2005 of TomorrowNow, which provided maintenance services for some of Oracle’s software.Its aim was to poach customers.But in 2007 Oracle sued SAP, alleging that TomorrowNow had made illegal downloads from its website.有時，一次阻截?fù)寯嗑妥阋哉f明一場球賽甚或整個賽季。11月1日開庭、挑起全球最大兩家企業(yè)軟件商Oracle與SAP相互火拼的訟案，就屬于這種情況。這場爭論要追溯至2005年SAP收購TomorrowNow一事，后者為某些Oracle軟件提供維護(hù)服務(wù)，意在挖走顧客。不過2007年Oracle起訴SAP，聲稱TomorrowNow從其網(wǎng)站非法下載。

SAP has since admitted that TomorrowNow had done wrong and closed it down.It will not even contest allegations that it was aware of the copyright infringement and has reportedly agreed to pay $120m in legal fees to Oracle.This essentially leaves only two questions open: the damages—SAP thinks $40m is enough;Oracle wants about $2 billion—and whether Léo Apotheker, SAP’s former boss and now head of Hewlett-Packard(HP), will appear in court.SAP自那時起就承認(rèn)TomorrowNow行為失當(dāng)，并關(guān)閉了該公司。而面對Oracle指控自個對版權(quán)侵害心知肚明一說，SAP甚至不會辯解。并且，據(jù)說其同意向Oracle支付1.2億美元的訴訟費(fèi)。這實(shí)質(zhì)上只留下了兩個問題懸而未決。一是Oracle的損失，SAP認(rèn)為4000萬美元足夠了，而Oracle想要約20億美元；二是Léo Apotheker這位SAP前老板、HP現(xiàn)領(lǐng)袖，是否會出庭。

The issue is the same as with independent car-repair shops: what access to the

intellectual property of the original vendor should they have? If the court favours Rimini Street and others, their business could take off.A growing number of firms are thinking about defecting from Oracle and SAP, even though they would no longer get regular updates.They are happy with their existing applications and could cut their maintenance costs in half.這個問題跟獨(dú)立汽修店面臨的問題是一樣的：這些店鋪應(yīng)通過何種途徑獲得創(chuàng)始者的知識產(chǎn)權(quán)？若法庭站到Rimini Street及其他企業(yè)一邊，這些企業(yè)就將蓬勃發(fā)展。越來越多企業(yè)正考慮背棄Oracle與SAP，即便不再獲得定期升級。它們滿意現(xiàn)有應(yīng)用，可能會削減一半維護(hù)費(fèi)。

If many customers jump ship, this would weigh heavily on the results of Oracle and SAP.Maintenance fees, usually 22% of a program’s price per year, have become a bigger part of firms’ technology budgets and of software vendors’ income.For both firms, maintenance generates twice as much revenue as software sales—and all of the profits.若眾多用戶掉頭離去，將會極大影響Oracle跟SAP的業(yè)績。維護(hù)費(fèi)通常占一個程序年費(fèi)的22%，已成為企業(yè)科研預(yù)算及軟件銷售收入的大部分來源。對Oracle與SAP兩家公司而言，維護(hù)費(fèi)是軟件銷售收入的兩倍，也是全部利潤。

Yet if the TomorrowNow trial has attracted so much attention, it is also because of a new epic rivalry in the industry.It started when Oracle bought Sun Microsystems last year, becoming a direct rival to HP.Things got worse in September when Oracle hired HP’s ex-boss, Mark Hurd, who had been pushed out the previous month.The relationship became downright hostile when HP then appointed Mr Apotheker as successor and installed as chairman, of all people, Ray Lane, who left Oracle in 2000 after falling out with its flamboyant boss, Larry Ellison.然而，倘若TomorrowNow一案吸引了如此多關(guān)注，也是因為該行業(yè)產(chǎn)生了新一輪重大對抗。這種對抗始于去年Oracle收購Sun Microsystems時，這場收購變成了一場直接針對HP的競爭。今年9月，情況變糟了，當(dāng)時Oracle雇傭了HP前老板Mark Hurd，而他上個月剛被HP炒了魷魚。HP接著任命Apotheker先生充當(dāng)繼任者，安排Ray Lane擔(dān)任董事長，而偏偏就是此人2000年與Oracle趾高氣揚(yáng)的老板Larry Ellison大吵一場后，離開了Oracle。因而此時，兩家公司間的關(guān)系變得徹頭徹尾充滿敵意。

Mr Ellison, who has shown restraint in recent years, has since rediscovered his previous more belligerent form.He compared HP’s board to “idiots” when they forced Mr Hurd out.He spoke of “madness” after Mr Apotheker’s appointment.Later he accused HP’s new boss, who started his new job on the first day of the trial, of having “overseen an industrial-espionage scheme”.Ellison先生最近幾年表現(xiàn)克制，但從那時起，他又找回了從前更好斗的模樣。當(dāng)HP董事會逼迫Hurd先生離開時，他將其比作“白癡”。在HP任命Apotheker先生后，他說這是“蠢事”。后來，他指責(zé)HP新老板（此案開庭首日他走馬上任）正“監(jiān)管一項工業(yè)間諜活動計劃”。

All this has entertainment value.And it may impress Wall Street.But it is unlikely to make firms buy more of Oracle’s products.Nor will it do anything to counter the growing anger among customers of Oracle(and of SAP, for that matter)over how much

they pay in maintenance fees, with so little in return.這一切充滿了娛樂價值，并會讓華爾街印象深刻，卻不大可能讓企業(yè)購買更多的Oracle產(chǎn)品。而Oracle用戶（就此事而言，SAP的用戶同樣）日益憤怒：他們付出了這么多維護(hù)費(fèi)，回報卻如此之少。要平息他們的怒氣，這一切也毫無用處。Transparency International 透明國際

Murk meter 陰暗量表

The best-known corruption index may have run its course 最著名的腐敗指數(shù)或許已走到盡頭。

Oct 28th 2010 | BERLIN

No wonder, then, that the annual corruption perceptions index(CPI), which orders countries according to the perceived degree of graft, is closely watched.But when its compilers—Transparency International(TI), an organisation based in Berlin—released their 16th annual ranking on October 26th, there was criticism as well as curiosity.于是，也難怪按被察覺到的貪腐程度對國家進(jìn)行排序的腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)(CPI)會受到密切關(guān)注了。不過當(dāng)其編纂者（位于柏林的透明國際組織）在10月26日發(fā)布第16份排名時，既引發(fā)了好奇，也招至了批評。

To be sure, TI has done a lot for the anti-corruption cause.The group has had an “enormous impact”, says Richard Boucher, a deputy secretary-general at the OECD, a rich-country club.The CPI was the first index comparing corruption globally.透明國際無疑已為反腐事業(yè)做出許多努力。富裕國家俱樂部——經(jīng)合組織的副秘書長理查德?鮑徹(Richard Boucher)稱透明國際已擁有 “巨大的影響力”。腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)是第一個在全球?qū)用嫔蠈Ω瘮〕潭冗M(jìn)行比較的指數(shù)。

不過這一指數(shù)始終存有爭議。正如你可能預(yù)料的那樣，早期的抱怨來自于貧困地區(qū)，這些地區(qū)感到自己受到了一個反映富裕國家精神特質(zhì)的組織的區(qū)別對待。

The CPI highlights the general level of corruption, but offers little clue about which aspects are most serious, or how to fight it.Frustration has grown with the idea that “a single number for a whole country is enough”, says Nathaniel Heller of Global Integrity, an anti-corruption outfit.腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)強(qiáng)調(diào)了腐敗的整體水平，但卻沒有為哪些領(lǐng)域腐敗最盛或應(yīng)如何打擊腐敗提供多少信息。反腐敗組織——環(huán)球廉正(Global Integrity)的納撒尼爾?海勒(Nathaniel Heller)表示，對于那種認(rèn)為“就整個國家而言，一個數(shù)據(jù)便足夠了”的想法，人們已產(chǎn)生受挫感。

The CPI “has more than run its course”, in the view of Claudio Weber Abramo, director of Transparência Brasil, a former chapter that left the TI umbrella in 2007.在透明巴西(Transparência Brasil)主席克勞迪奧?韋伯?阿布拉莫(Claudio Weber Abramo)看來，腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)“已經(jīng)過時”。該組織曾是透明國際組織網(wǎng)中的一個分支，但已于2007年退出。

TI is aware of the index’s shortcomings.The CPI, it says, is “an annual snapshot” with “l(fā)ess of a focus on year-on-year trends”.Yet the group stands by its ranking.“We are comfortable we have an important tool—but it is only one tool”, says Huguette Labelle, TI’s chair.透明國際明白指數(shù)所存有的缺陷。該組織指出，腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)是一種“較少聚焦于同比趨勢”的“快照”。不過該組織仍支持自己的排序。透明國際主席胡吉特?拉貝勒(Huguette Labelle)表示：“我們?yōu)樽约簱碛幸环N重要工具而感到安心——不過這只是一種工具”。

form, its other work might fare better.透明國際遠(yuǎn)非黔驢技窮之輩。目前，該組織正在關(guān)注推動國際協(xié)議并助其實(shí)施。而在地區(qū)層面上，該組織的所作所為也比以往多上許多。在一些發(fā)展中國家，法律咨詢中心向腐敗受害者伸出援手。不過，腐敗認(rèn)知指數(shù)影響巨大，透明國際正面臨著兩難局面。這一指數(shù)既贏得了其所急需的關(guān)注，卻又蓋住了其他活動的風(fēng)頭，并將自己推至風(fēng)口浪尖。如果透明國際有勇氣拋棄這塊記分牌，或者至少是以一種誤導(dǎo)性較小的方式加以發(fā)布的話，該組織其他工作的進(jìn)展或許就將更加順利。

Broadband in America 美國寬帶業(yè)

Come sooner, future 快來吧，未來

Verizon has paid dearly to build a fast network.Now it needs customers Verizon公司付出了高昂代價建設(shè)高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)?，F(xiàn)在，它亟需用戶

Oct 28th 2010

VERIZON can get shirty about the word “fibre”.America’s second-biggest telecoms operator successfully complained to the Better Business Bureau that competitors had touted “fibre-optic fast” to consumers, even though their broadband networks did not run fibre all the way to the home, as Verizon does.This is not just a techies’ argument.By an order of magnitude, an all-fibre network is the fastest way to move information from one place to another on the internet and Verizon has the largest such network in America.The difficult bit is making money from it.Verizon可能生“纖”字的氣。因為這家美國第二大電信運(yùn)營商向商業(yè)促進(jìn)局申訴成功，稱其競爭者的寬帶網(wǎng)即便并未如自己那般從頭至尾光纖延伸入戶，卻紛紛向消費(fèi)者兜售“光纖高速”。這并非只是憤憤之辭。就數(shù)量級而言，全光網(wǎng)是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)信息異地遷移速度最快的方式，而Verizon擁有美國最大的全光網(wǎng)。難點(diǎn)在于用它賺錢。

At first the two networks had a fair fight, delivering the internet at about the same speed.No network, however, can run faster than the speed of its “l(fā)ast mile”, from the neighbourhood node to the house.This is the most expensive place to lay networks and the last mile of cable is faster than a copper wire.So the telephone companies would, eventually, be unable to deliver the internet as fast as their cable competitors.最初，這兩種網(wǎng)絡(luò)公平競爭，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)傳輸速度大致相同。然而，沒有網(wǎng)絡(luò)能快過其“最后一英里”（即從小區(qū)節(jié)點(diǎn)至用戶家里那段）的速度。這是網(wǎng)絡(luò)布設(shè)造價最貴之處，而電纜最后一英里比銅線快。因此電話公司也許最終，其互聯(lián)網(wǎng)傳輸速度不能像有線競爭者那樣快。

Verizon, formed in 2000 out of several regional telephone companies, decided to create a third network.Since 2004 it has strung optic fibre to 60% of the homes where it already had copper wires, mainly in Texas, California and on the East Coast.Verizon calls its new network “FiOS”.It cost about $23 billion to build and, according to Sanford Bernstein, an investment firm, contributed to the $32 billion debt of Verizon’s wireline division.2000年成立、由幾家區(qū)域電話公司組成的Verizon，決定創(chuàng)建第三種網(wǎng)絡(luò)。2004年來，光纖拉進(jìn)了60%已鋪有銅線的家庭（主要在德克薩斯、加利福尼亞及東海岸地區(qū)）。Verizon稱其新網(wǎng)絡(luò)為“FiOS”。其建設(shè)費(fèi)約230億美元，而據(jù)投資公司Sanford Bernstein的數(shù)據(jù)，這導(dǎo)致Verizon有線部門負(fù)債320億美元。

high-definition video.Yet Verizon’s network could leave these in the dust.In tests in Massachusetts its fibre network has run as fast as 10,000 megabits per second, and it could go faster.基本的銅線及電纜互聯(lián)網(wǎng)接入速度不超過5Mbits/s，僅夠看YouTube或Skype視頻聊天。不過，網(wǎng)速鮮有宣傳得那樣快。光纖升級后的有線網(wǎng)絡(luò)，網(wǎng)速達(dá)幾百兆每秒，足以應(yīng)付現(xiàn)在的大部分應(yīng)用，而在不遠(yuǎn)的將來出現(xiàn)的許多應(yīng)用，如高清視頻，處理起來也綽綽有余。然而，Verizon的網(wǎng)絡(luò)將令上述網(wǎng)絡(luò)望塵莫及，在馬薩諸塞州進(jìn)行的試驗中，其光纖網(wǎng)速高達(dá)10Gbits/s,還能更快。

For now, Verizon has halted new investment in fibre while it tries to drum up more customers for FiOS.And for the long term it is trying to create demand for an even faster internet.Verizon has suggested that it be allowed to offer companies super-fast, premium access to its network while continuing to provide what it calls “the open internet” to its customers.Verizon sees its fast network supplying programmes to 100-inch television screens and providing 3-D online gaming.More speed-demanding video games are coming(see article).The company has also been discussing linking medical devices in hospitals and doctors’ surgeries.It is building connections to intelligent power grids, which businesses and homes could use to reduce their energy bills.For Verizon, the future cannot come fast enough.目前，Verizon暫停往光纖上再投資，同時設(shè)法力爭更多FiOS顧客。而長期以來，它一直試圖創(chuàng)造同樣的高速互聯(lián)網(wǎng)需求。Verizon表明，它應(yīng)獲準(zhǔn)向企業(yè)提供高速、優(yōu)惠的網(wǎng)絡(luò)接入，同時繼續(xù)向用戶提供其所稱的“開放式互聯(lián)網(wǎng)”。Verizon考慮讓其高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)提供100英寸電視屏幕節(jié)目及3D網(wǎng)絡(luò)游戲。更多苛求速度的視頻游戲正在涌現(xiàn)。該公司也一直在談?wù)撚酶咚倬W(wǎng)絡(luò)連接醫(yī)院醫(yī)療設(shè)備及醫(yī)生手術(shù)室。它正構(gòu)建智能電網(wǎng)連接，企業(yè)及家庭用戶可用其削減能源開銷。對Verizon而言，未來來得還不夠快。Born digital 數(shù)碼人生

National libraries start to preserve the web, but cannot save everything 各國的圖書館開始保存網(wǎng)站，但不能面面俱到

Oct 21st 2010

The library of the future IN THE digital realm, things seem always to happen the wrong way round.Whereas Google has hurried to scan books into its digital catalogue, a group of national libraries has begun saving what the online giant leaves behind.For although search engines such as Google index the web, they do not archive it.Many websites just disappear when their owner runs out of money or interest.Adam Farquhar, in charge of digital projects for the British Library, points out that the world has in some ways a better record of the beginning of the 20th century than of the beginning of the 21st.在數(shù)碼界，出乎意料的事情屢見不鮮。當(dāng)谷歌忙于將書籍掃描成數(shù)字文檔時，各國圖書館已經(jīng)開始保存這個在線巨人漏掉的資料。盡管谷歌這類搜索引擎提供網(wǎng)站的索引服務(wù)，但并沒有把網(wǎng)站保存起來。很多網(wǎng)站因其所有人缺乏資金或失去興趣而曇花一現(xiàn)。Adam Farquhar負(fù)責(zé)大英博物館的數(shù)字項目，他指出在某種程度上全世界對20世紀(jì)初期的記錄比21世紀(jì)初期的記錄要好。

In 2003 eleven national libraries and the Internet Archive launched a project to preserve “born-digital” information: the kind that has never existed as anything but digitally.Called the International Internet Preservation Consortium(IIPC), it now includes 39 large institutional libraries.But the task is impossible.One reason is the sheer amount of data on the web.The groups have already collected several petabytes of data(a petabyte can hold roughly 10 trillion copies of this article).2003年，11家各國圖書館和因特網(wǎng)檔案室啟動一個保護(hù)數(shù)碼信息的項目：此類信息沒有以數(shù)碼之外的任何其他形式存在過。這個稱為“國際因特網(wǎng)保護(hù)聯(lián)合體”的項目，現(xiàn)有39家大型機(jī)構(gòu)圖書館。但是這一任務(wù)幾乎無法完成。理由之一是網(wǎng)絡(luò)上的數(shù)據(jù)量極其龐大。這些團(tuán)體已經(jīng)收集了幾拍（petabytes）的數(shù)據(jù)（一拍大約能裝下10萬億篇本文）。

data sets.Audio and video programmes based on proprietary formats such as Windows Media Player are another challenge.What happens if Microsoft is bankrupt and forgotten in 2210? 另一個問題是如何確?，F(xiàn)在儲存數(shù)據(jù)的格式，在幾個世紀(jì)之后依然存在。古代的一些書稿人們到今天還能讀。但是很多過去的數(shù)字媒體，即使勉強(qiáng)能讀，也僅限于為數(shù)不多的幾臺老掉牙的機(jī)器。國際因特網(wǎng)保護(hù)聯(lián)合體已經(jīng)單獨(dú)創(chuàng)立一種格式，讓未來的歷史學(xué)家更有可能找到讀取這些數(shù)據(jù)的機(jī)器。但一種解決方案不能抓取所有內(nèi)容。網(wǎng)站發(fā)布工具越來越多地按照數(shù)據(jù)的復(fù)雜程度提供內(nèi)容豐富的網(wǎng)頁。以各類專有格式（如windows media player)儲存的音頻和視頻內(nèi)容也是個大問題。萬一2210年微軟破產(chǎn)或無人知曉怎么辦？

The biggest problem, for now, is money.The British Library estimates that it costs half as much to store a digital document as it does a physical one.But there are a lot more digital ones.America’s Library of Congress enjoys a specific mandate, and budget, to save the web.The British Library is still seeking one.現(xiàn)在面臨的最大問題是錢。大英博物館估計儲存數(shù)字文件的花費(fèi)是儲存物理文件的一半。但是數(shù)字內(nèi)容要多很多。美國國會圖書館很幸運(yùn)，因為國家有具體的保護(hù)網(wǎng)站的命令和預(yù)算。大英博物館還在爭取這種命令。

So national libraries have decided to split the task.Each has taken responsibility for the digital works in its national top-level domain(web-address suffixes such as “.uk” or “.fr”).In countries with larger domains, such as Britain and America, curators cannot hope to save everything.They are concentrating on material of national interest, such as elections, news sites and citizen journalism or innovative uses of the web.因此，各國的圖書館決定共同完成這個任務(wù)。它們分別承擔(dān)其頂級域名內(nèi)的數(shù)字作品（如后綴為“.uk”或“.fr”的網(wǎng)址）。如果某些國家域名龐大，如英國和美國，館長們不要指望把什么都保存下來。他們需要重點(diǎn)處理關(guān)系國計民生的材料，如選舉、新聞網(wǎng)站和公民的報章雜志或創(chuàng)意使用網(wǎng)站的方法。

The daily death of countless websites has brought a new sense of urgency—and forced libraries to adapt culturally as well.Past practice was to tag every new document as it arrived.Now precision must be sacrificed to scale and speed.The task started before standards, goals or budgets are set.And they may yet change.Just like many websites, libraries will be stuck in what is known as “permanent beta”.每天，都有無數(shù)網(wǎng)站消失，更讓人感到時間緊迫——圖書館也不得不根據(jù)社會文化需要，靈活處理。過去習(xí)慣做法是凡是新文件，一一標(biāo)注保存?，F(xiàn)在則必須犧牲準(zhǔn)確性換取規(guī)模和速度。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、目標(biāo)或預(yù)算都沒確定，就開始工作了。而標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、任務(wù)、預(yù)算還可能變更。同很多網(wǎng)站一樣，圖書館也將陷入所謂“永久試用”的境地。

譯者注：本文不長，語言相對簡單，但要譯出“韻味”，還是不容易。我覺得有幾點(diǎn)需要大家尤其注意： 1.大意的把握。兩方面內(nèi)容，保存什么？保存的是網(wǎng)站內(nèi)容，不是某個網(wǎng)頁。誰來

保存？各國的圖書館，這不是一個國家的圖書館能做得了的工作。這兩點(diǎn)弄不好，文中web、national libraries就不好翻。

某些具體語句的把握。除了要翻出意思，還要翻出感情色彩。就拿開頭一句“things seem always to happen the wrong way round”來說，有人翻成“倒行逆施”，這就說明譯者沒有理解中文的倒行逆施有“貶義”，用來形容某個不得人心、逆歷史潮流而動的做法等，感情色彩很濃厚。而本文則沒有這種強(qiáng)烈的情緒，因此，我認(rèn)為“出乎意料的事情屢見不鮮”、“事情的發(fā)展總是讓人摸不透”等比較貼切，看似“不準(zhǔn)確”，其實(shí)意思出來了。

Virtual outsourcing 虛擬外包業(yè)

Mobile work 移動工作

A way to earn money by texting 發(fā)短信賺錢之法

Oct 28th 2010 | new york

Mobile worker 移動工作者

THE idea came to Nathan Eagle, a research scientist with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, when he was doing a teaching stint in rural Kenya.He realised that, as three-quarters of the 4.6 billion mobile-phone users worldwide live in developing countries, a useful piece of technology is now being placed in the hands of a large number of people who might be keen to use their devices to make some money.To help them do so, he came up with a service called txteagle which distributes small jobs via text messaging in return for small payments.麻省理工學(xué)院研究員Nathan Eagle在肯尼亞鄉(xiāng)下進(jìn)行短期教學(xué)時，冒出了這一念頭。他意識到，全世界46億手機(jī)用戶有四分之三生活在發(fā)展中國家，因而一項實(shí)用技術(shù)，此刻正掌握在大量或許渴望用自己手機(jī)賺錢的人手中。為幫助他們那樣做，Eagle先生想出了一種叫做txteagle的業(yè)務(wù)，可以靠發(fā)文字短信分發(fā)零活來換取小額報酬。

Mr Eagle hopes txteagle will do its bit by mobile “crowdsourcing”—breaking down jobs into small tasks and sending them to lots of individuals.These jobs often involve local knowledge and range from things like checking what street signs say in rural Sudan for a satellite-navigation service to translating words into a Kenyan dialect for companies trying to spread their marketing.A woman living in rural Brazil or India may have limited access to work, adds Mr Eagle, “but she can still use her mobile phone to collect local price and product data or even complete market-research surveys.” Payments are transferred to a user’s phone by a mobile money service, such as the M-PESA system run by Safaricom in Africa, or by providing additional calling credit.Eagle先生希望txteagle業(yè)務(wù)通過移動“眾包”（將工作拆分成零星任務(wù)后派發(fā)給眾多個體）有所貢獻(xiàn)。這些工作通常牽涉本地知識，涵蓋各種事情，如為一種衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航業(yè)務(wù)核對種種路標(biāo)在蘇丹鄉(xiāng)下表明什么，為那些試圖擴(kuò)展市場的公司將文字翻譯為肯尼亞土語。一位住在巴西或印度鄉(xiāng)下的婦女，或許工作機(jī)會有限，Eagle先生補(bǔ)充道，“但她仍能用自己的手機(jī)搜集當(dāng)?shù)貎r格及產(chǎn)品數(shù)據(jù)，甚或完成市場調(diào)研?！眻蟪晖ㄟ^一種手機(jī)錢包業(yè)務(wù)（比如非洲Safaricom移動通信公司運(yùn)營的M-PESA移動轉(zhuǎn)賬系統(tǒng)）轉(zhuǎn)到用戶手機(jī)上，或者打入額外的手機(jī)預(yù)付費(fèi)。

Working with over 220 mobile operators, txteagle is able to reach 2 billion subscribers in 80 countries.It already has the largest contract-labour force in Kenya and new ways of using it are being found all the time.Recently a large media firm asked Mr Eagle for help in monitoring its television commercials across Africa.The company was concerned that, although it had paid for broadcasting rights, its ads could be replaced with others by local television companies.So txteagle pays locals to watch and then text notes about which ads are shown.“I would never think of that myself,” says Mr Eagle.Which is why he is not sure just how big all these small text jobs could become.txteagle業(yè)務(wù)與220多個移動運(yùn)營商合作，能到達(dá)80個國家的20億訂戶。在肯尼亞已擁有了最大的包工力量，新的使用方式一直層出不窮。最近一家媒體巨頭向Eagle先生求助，監(jiān)視其在非洲全境的電視商業(yè)廣告。該公司擔(dān)心，盡管其已為播映權(quán)掏了錢，但自個的廣告卻可能被當(dāng)?shù)仉娨暪镜膹V告替換。于是txteagle業(yè)務(wù)付錢給當(dāng)?shù)厝擞^察哪些廣告播出了，然后用文字標(biāo)注。Eagle說，“我自己決不會想到這個法子?！彼淮_定所有這些零星的文字工作究竟會變成多大的力量，而這就是原因。The Big Mac index 巨無霸指數(shù) An indigestible problem 難題

Why China needs more expensive burgers 為什么說中國的巨無霸太便宜了 Oct 14th 2010 | Hong kong

A WEAK currency, despite its appeal to exporters and politicians, is no free lunch.But it can provide a cheap one.In China, for example, a McDonald’s Big Mac costs just 14.5 yuan on average in Beijing and Shenzhen, the equivalent of $2.18 at market exchange rates.In America, in contrast, the same burger averages $3.71.出口商和政客所吁求的弱勢貨幣絕非免費(fèi)的午餐。不過它確實(shí)可以使午餐變得很便宜。比如說，在中國的北京和深圳，一個麥當(dāng)勞巨無霸漢堡平均只需14.5元人民幣即可買到，按市場匯率計算，相當(dāng)于2.18美元。而在美國，相同的漢堡要賣到3.71美元。

That makes China’s yuan one of the most undervalued currencies in the Big Mac index, our gratifyingly simple guide to currency misalignments, updated this week(see chart).The index is based on the idea of purchasing-power parity, which says that a currency’s price should reflect the amount of goods and services it can buy.Since 14.5 yuan can buy as much burger as $3.71, a yuan should be worth $0.26 on the foreign-exchange market.In fact, it costs just $0.15, suggesting that it is undervalued by about 40%.這使得人民幣成為本周巨無霸指數(shù)——本刊的實(shí)用單一貨幣失調(diào)指標(biāo)——中最被低估的貨幣（見圖）。巨無霸指數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)是購買力平價，即一種貨幣的價格應(yīng)該反映它所能買到的商品和服務(wù)。14.5元人民幣可以買到3.71美元的漢堡，因此1元人民幣應(yīng)該在外匯市場中價值0.26美元。而事實(shí)上1元人民幣只能兌換0.15美元，這意味著人民幣被低估了40%。

The tensions caused by such misalignments prompted Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, to complain last month that his country was a potential casualty of a “currency war”.Perhaps it was something he ate.In Brazil a Big Mac costs the equivalent of $5.26, implying that the real is now overvalued by 42%.The index also suggests that the euro is overvalued by about 29%.And the Swiss, who avoid most wars, are in the thick of this one.Their franc is the most expensive currency on our list.The Japanese are so far the only rich country to intervene directly in the markets to weaken their currency.But according to burgernomics, the yen is only 5% overvalued, not much of a casus belli.在貨幣失調(diào)所造成的國際緊張局面面前，巴西財政部長曼特加（Guido Mantega）上個月發(fā)出了巴西是“貨幣戰(zhàn)爭”潛在受害者的感嘆。或許他是在抱怨自己吃的東西太貴了。在巴西，一個巨無霸漢堡的價格相當(dāng)于5.26美元，表明雷亞爾被高估了42%。巨無霸指數(shù)還顯示歐元被高估了29%。而傳統(tǒng)的中立國瑞士這次站在了貨幣戰(zhàn)爭最前線。瑞士法郎已成為指數(shù)中最昂貴的貨幣。日本是目前唯一直接干預(yù)貨幣市場使本國貨幣貶值的發(fā)達(dá)國家。但從我們的漢堡經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)視角來看，日元只被高估了5%，顯然不能作為發(fā)動貨幣戰(zhàn)的借口。

If a currency war is in the offing, America’s congressmen seem increasingly determined to arm themselves.A bill passed by the House of Representatives last month would treat undervalued currencies as an illegal export subsidy and allow American firms to request countervailing tariffs.The size of those tariffs would reflect the scale of the undervaluation.貨幣戰(zhàn)爭是否一觸即發(fā)姑且不論，美國的國會議員們似乎是鐵了心要開始武裝戒備了。上個月，眾議院通過了一項法令，將被低估的貨幣視同非法出口補(bǔ)貼，美國公司有權(quán)要求征收抵消性關(guān)稅。具體的稅率體現(xiàn)了被低估的程度。

things)into line with a “norm” based on the country’s growth, income per person, demography and budget balance.這一法令通過什么方法計算貨幣失調(diào)程度呢？不是巨無霸指數(shù)，而是IMF所慣用的深奧算法。IMF使用三種相互關(guān)聯(lián)的手段來計算匯率。一是根據(jù)使一國經(jīng)常項目收支（相當(dāng)于貿(mào)易收支在加上少數(shù)其他項目）與“標(biāo)準(zhǔn)”（由該國增長率、人均收入、人口和財政收支等因素決定）相匹配的原則來計算真實(shí)匯率。

The fund’s second approach ignores current-account balances and instead calculates a direct statistical relationship between the real exchange rate and things like a country’s terms of trade(the price of its exports compared with its imports), its productivity and its foreign assets and liabilities.The strength of Brazil’s currency, for example, may partly reflect the high price of exports such as soyabeans.第二種算法忽略經(jīng)常項目收支，而是計算一國真實(shí)匯率與該國進(jìn)出口比價（出口品價格與進(jìn)口品價格之比）、生產(chǎn)力、對外資產(chǎn)負(fù)債情況等因素的直接統(tǒng)計關(guān)系。比如，巴西里亞爾的強(qiáng)勢一定程度上是拜其出口品（如大豆）價格較高所賜。

Third, the fund also calculates the exchange rate that would stabilise the country’s foreign assets and liabilities at a reasonable level.If, for example, a country runs sizeable trade surpluses, resulting in a rapid build-up of foreign assets, it probably has an undervalued exchange rate.三是計算使一國對外資產(chǎn)和負(fù)債穩(wěn)定在合理水平的匯率。比如，如果某國有著巨大的貿(mào)易盈余，因而對外資產(chǎn)迅速囤積，那么該國貨幣就有可能是被低估的。

The IMF has typically assessed its members’ policies one at a time.But the fund’s managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, now proposes to assess its biggest members all at once to make sure their macroeconomic strategies do not work at cross-purposes.He is keen to identify the ways in which a country’s policies, including its exchange-rate policies, “spill over” to its neighbours.在通常情況下，IMF會逐一評估各成員國的政策。但總干事多米尼克?斯特勞斯-卡恩（Dominique Strauss-Kahn）最近建議同時評估所有最重要成員國，以確保它們的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)策略目標(biāo)不會相互沖突?？ǘ骷鼻械叵肱靼滓粐恼摺▍R率政策在內(nèi)——是如何“溢出”從而影響到鄰國的。

Those spillovers depend on the size of the economy as much as the scale of any misalignments.But the biggest economies are also the hardest to bully.The fund’s last annual report on the Chinese economy, in July, included the government’s rebuttal of every criticism the fund offered.In a decorous compromise the report concluded that the yuan was “substantially” undervalued but refrained from quantifying the size of the problem.溢出效應(yīng)既取決于失調(diào)的嚴(yán)重程度，也取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的大小。但大經(jīng)濟(jì)體通常也是強(qiáng)硬派。在IMF最新一期的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)年報（7月發(fā)布）中，中國政府逐條反駁了IMF提出的所有批評。IMF只能作出適當(dāng)讓步，僅僅稱人民幣被“顯著”低估了，而沒有給出到底低估多少的具體數(shù)字。

Windows or curtains（注1）良機(jī)還是死路？

The software giant is desperate to make a splash in the smart-phone business 軟件巨頭孤注一擲，想要在智能電話行業(yè)大展拳腳

Oct 7th 2010 | San Francisco

AT A company meeting last year, Steve Ballmer, Microsoft’s pugnacious boss, spied an employee taking a photo on an Apple iPhone.He promptly grabbed the offending device and pretended to stamp on it.Microsoft would love to crush competitors in the smart-phone market, but it has repeatedly failed to come up with compelling offerings of its own.Now the software firm is gearing up for another assault on a business that is crucial to its future.去年，在一次公司會議上，斗志旺盛的微軟老板斯蒂夫?鮑爾默，發(fā)現(xiàn)一名雇員正在用蘋果的iPhone拍照。他一把奪過這臺令其不快的設(shè)備，作勢猛踩。微軟巴不得擊垮智能電話市場上的對手，卻一而再再而三地、未能整出強(qiáng)有力的產(chǎn)品。現(xiàn)在，這家軟件公司正憋足了勁，要在智能手機(jī)行業(yè)發(fā)起又一輪出擊，該行業(yè)對其未來至關(guān)緊要。

On October 11th Microsoft is due to unveil phones from manufacturers such as HTC and

第三篇：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人文章摘錄32篇(中英對照)

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：律師事務(wù)所標(biāo)價更高收益更少

Business 商業(yè)報道

Law firms 律師事務(wù)所

Charging more, getting less 標(biāo)價更高，收益更少

Lawyers' biggest customers are discovering that they can haggle 律師的最大客戶們發(fā)現(xiàn)他們能與律師還價

THERE were groans in big companies' legal departments in the mid-2000s, when the fees of America's priciest lawyers first hit 1,000 an hour.當(dāng)美國最高的律師酬金達(dá)到每小時1000美元，20世紀(jì)中期，一些大公司的法律部門里開始抱怨連連。

Such rates have since become common at firms with prestige.自此以后，這樣的價格在名企變得普遍。

A survey published this week by the National Law Journal found that they now go as high as 1,800.美國法律期刊刊登的一項調(diào)查表明，現(xiàn)在的律師費(fèi)用已經(jīng)高達(dá)1800美元/時，But the general counsels of large businesses are increasingly finding that they can ignore these extravagant rates, and insist on big discounts.但是那些為大公司效力的法律顧問卻逐漸發(fā)現(xiàn)，他們忽視高額酬金，并堅持較大折扣。

Price-discounting tends to be associated more with used-car lots than with posh law firms.There was a time when a lawyer could submit his bill and be confident of receiving a cheque for the same amount.價格折扣漸漸常見于二手車交易，并非光鮮的律師律師事務(wù)所。有一段時間，律師收到的支票跟賬單數(shù)目一樣，并且，他們引以為豪。

In banner years, some even got more, as grateful clients tipped them a little extra for a job well done.在收益相當(dāng)?shù)哪切┠?，一些慷慨的客戶還會給點(diǎn)小費(fèi)，來獎勵他們的良好表現(xiàn)，因此有些律師能得到更多。

Since the financial crisis, however, the realisation of law firms—the proportion of their standard rates that they collect in practice—has been sliding.然，自金融危機(jī)，律師律師事務(wù)所的個人實(shí)現(xiàn)，即他們在實(shí)際中累積到標(biāo)準(zhǔn)價格的部分在下滑。

Earlier this month Peer Monitor, a company that tracks the legal industry, said that the ratio

in the United States dropped from 92% in 2007 to an all-time low of 83.5% in 2013.本月初，一家跟蹤報道法律產(chǎn)業(yè)的公司，Peer Monitor表示，在美國，價格比率已由07年的92%下滑到空前低值，13年的83.5%。

British lawyers have seen a similar decline.英國律師界也有類似情況。

Discounts are rampant, says Brad Hildebrandt, a consultant to law firms.折扣現(xiàn)象在蔓延。一家律師律師事務(wù)所的顧問Brad Hildebrandt如是說。

The economic forces driving high-flying legal eagles into the bargain bin are no mystery.經(jīng)濟(jì)力量將這些高身段的律師界雄鷹打入廉價區(qū)，這已不再是秘密。

Demand for corporate legal work on such things as mergers, takeovers and share and bond issues plummeted in the 2008-09 recession, and has yet to recover.在企業(yè)合并、收購、股票債券問題等的法律合作需求也在08-09年的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中減弱，至今沒恢復(fù)。

Simultaneously, the easy profits once earned in litigation departments have also dried up: the tedious task of reviewing mountains of documents, which law firms used to farm out to battalions of newly qualified associates, can increasingly be done by computers.同時，訴訟部的易得利潤也枯竭了：枯燥的審核成堆文件工作，之前律師事務(wù)所都是承包給大批剛合格的伙伴，現(xiàn)也被電腦代替了。

Putting up prices at a time of weak demand and fierce competition seems perverse.在需求小，競爭激烈的時候提高價格似乎有些悖于常理，Yet the industry has continued to increase its sticker prices by 2-3% every year—only to give back almost all the gain by offering ever-greater discounts.但是律師行業(yè)仍舊持續(xù)以每年2%-3%的速度提高標(biāo)價—僅僅只是提供一個更好的折扣給顧客。

One reason for this is that, as ever more big clients discover they can haggle, law firms have realised that the best way for them to start the negotiation is with the highest possible asking-price.原因之一在于，因為更多的客戶發(fā)現(xiàn)他們能討價還價，律師律師事務(wù)所意識到開始協(xié)商的最好辦法就是給出最高索價。

In this, lawyers now find themselves in the same boat as accountants and other professionals who have long been used to having to bargain with bigger customers.而如今，律師們發(fā)現(xiàn)他們跟會計以及其他職業(yè)的人一樣，一直以來都在跟較大客戶還價。

Another reason is that sophisticated legal services are somewhat like luxury cars and handbags, in that a high asking-price is taken as a sign of quality.另一個原因是，錯綜復(fù)雜的法律服務(wù)體系有點(diǎn)像豪車和高端手提包一樣，高價意味著高質(zhì)。

No one wants to have hired the cheaper firm in a high-stakes lawsuit.沒人想在一個賭注高的訴訟中雇傭一個廉價律師事務(wù)所來為自己工作。

But perhaps the most important rationale for discounting is that it lets law firms charge different prices to different clients, depending on their willingness to pay.但折扣最重要的理論基礎(chǔ)是，它使得律師事務(wù)所根據(jù)不同的客戶收取不一樣的費(fèi)用，當(dāng)然，這取決于客戶的意愿。

And even among business clients with big budgets, this varies markedly.甚至是與預(yù)算高的商業(yè)客戶，價格也明顯不同。

Over the past 25 years some large companies have built up their in-house legal departments, so that these can now deal with outside law firms on an equal footing.在過去的25年中，大公司自己內(nèi)設(shè)了法律部門，像外面的律師事務(wù)所一樣處理相關(guān)問題。

In-house lawyers know the market value of every type of service, and have sophisticated software that scrutinises invoices and queries anomalies.內(nèi)部律師了解每一種服務(wù)的市場價值，擁有完善的軟件細(xì)查發(fā)票，質(zhì)疑異常。

Such clients no longer just take the law firm's word for how many hours its lawyers spent on a job: if the bill looks padded, they will not hesitate to demand cuts.這樣的商業(yè)顧客，不再完全聽信律師事務(wù)所在某一案子上花費(fèi)的時長：如果賬單看上去有水分，他們將毫不猶豫尋求折扣。

DuPont, a chemicals giant, has found plenty of scope for curbing its legal bills by becoming a cannier client.化學(xué)巨頭杜邦發(fā)現(xiàn)變身為一個精明的客戶，能有許多減少法律賬單的機(jī)會。

In the early 1990s it spread its legal work among 350 firms.在20世紀(jì)90年代，杜邦將法律事務(wù)分配給350個律師事務(wù)所，Now it uses only 38—including some smaller firms in smaller cities, which offer better value for money.現(xiàn)在，只委托38個—包括一些較小城市的小公司，這些公司把金錢的價值用到實(shí)處。

DuPont has persuaded its remaining law firms to work together more closely.杜邦勸導(dǎo)現(xiàn)有的律師事務(wù)所加強(qiáng)合作。

For routine work it insists on flat fees;for riskier cases it seeks no-win, no-fee agreements.對于常規(guī)事務(wù)，堅持統(tǒng)一收費(fèi)，對于有風(fēng)險的事務(wù)，尋求沒有勝利就沒有酬薪的宗旨。

Above all, says Thomas Sager, DuPont's general counsel, We had to communicate that this is a new day, and you need to be as committed to our financial success as you are to yours.特別是，杜邦的總顧問Thomas Sager說：我們不得不相互傳達(dá)‘今天是新的一天，你必須堅定的為我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)成功努力，就如同你對自己的那樣'的信息。

Law firms' profits would evaporate if they offered smaller and less sophisticated clients such attractive deals.如果將很完美的方案提供給較小的，不那么精明的客戶，律師事務(wù)所的利潤可能會減少很多。

Fortunately for them, they have so far been able to get away with offering discreet, selective discounts.幸運(yùn)的是，目前為止，他們能夠避免供應(yīng)謹(jǐn)慎，選擇性折扣。

There are still a few big clients around who do not realise what they are missing: 仍有少數(shù)大顧客沒有意識到錯過了什么：

If you increase the rate every year, some clients will make you take it back, but others will let you keep it, says Tony Williams, a former managing partner of Clifford Chance, one of Britain's biggest law firms.如果每年都提高價格，一些顧客會讓你收回該要求，但是另外一些會答應(yīng)你的條件。高偉紳—英國最大律師事務(wù)所之一的總顧問Tony Williams如是說。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：印尼礦業(yè) 熔爐決定生存

Business 商業(yè)報道

Mining in Indonesia 印尼礦業(yè)

Smeltdown 熔爐決定生存

The government risks an export slump to boost the metals-processing industry 政府為了刺激金屬加工業(yè)發(fā)展不惜冒著削減出口量的危險

INDONESIA'S government concedes that it will cause short-term damage;but on January 12th it went ahead and banned exports of mineral ores, at last implementing a law passed in 2009.印尼政府承認(rèn)了金屬加工產(chǎn)業(yè)將蒙受短期虧損；但是在1月12號，印尼政府堅持09年的立法，繼續(xù)禁止出口礦石。

Officials say that forcing mining firms to export only processed minerals will attract investment in smelters and refineries.官方稱，強(qiáng)令礦業(yè)公司只出口加工過的礦石將吸引投資，主要針對熔煉和精煉產(chǎn)業(yè)。

After a year or so this will start to add value to the country's exports, they say.在一年左右的時間后，這舉措會增加印尼出口的價值。

But it is quite a gamble.但這是一個相當(dāng)大的賭博。

Indonesiahas few smelters, and earns 5 billion a year by exporting unprocessed minerals such as copper concentrate, nickel ores and bauxite.印尼有一些熔爐產(chǎn)業(yè)，而且每年可以從出口天然礦產(chǎn)里，例如銅精礦石、鎳礦石、礬土，獲利50億美元。

The mining ministry had admitted that an outright ban on ore shipments would cut exports by 4 billion this year and 2.5 billion next.礦業(yè)部承認(rèn)，今年完全禁止礦石海運(yùn)出口會減少40億的出口額，明年預(yù)計減少25億。

With the country's current-account deficit last year hitting 3.5% of GDP, its worst since 1986, and its currency falling steeply, this is a bad time to be forgoing foreign earnings.在印尼往來賬戶赤字占有GDP總額3.5%的情況下，這不是一個放棄國外盈利好時期。這是自1986年來最壞的情形，并且它的貨幣貶值很厲害。

This may explain why the president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, relaxed the moratorium at the last moment to let big copper producers keep exporting concentrate.這就解釋了為什么蘇西洛總統(tǒng)最后最后時刻放寬了出口政策轉(zhuǎn)而讓大型制銅商們繼續(xù)出口精礦石。

FreeportIndonesia, an American-owned miner, had warned of a 60% cut in production at its Grasberg mine in Papua, the world's fifth-largest copper mine, if the ban had been imposed in its original form.如果禁令實(shí)施保持不變，美國控股的印尼自由港礦業(yè)公司警告它將減少了它在巴布亞島Grasberg礦的60%產(chǎn)量。

Freeportsmelts about 40% of its output at Gresik in eastern Java, the country's sole copper smelter, but it exports the rest as concentrate.這座礦同時也是世界第五大銅礦。自由港冶煉了在Java東部Gresik大約40%的礦石產(chǎn)出，是這個國家唯一的銅礦冶煉公司，但是它出口剩下沒煉的礦石，例如銅精礦。

Concentrating minds 以提煉礦石為中心

Another reason for waiving the restriction on copper is that, in contrast to some other metals, mining and concentrating it produces most of its final value: 放棄限制銅礦出口政策的另一個原因就是，與某些金屬對比，采銅和精煉就可以占有最大一部分的最終價值：

Nathan Associates, a consultancy in Washington, DC, says only 4-6% is added by smelting.南森聯(lián)合公司是華盛頓的一家咨詢公司，宣稱只有4%-6%的價值是通過熔煉加上去的。

So the potential upside from insisting that only refined copper be exported is slight relative

to the downside of losing 2.5 billion a year of concentrate exports.因此，與喪失一年25億美元銅精礦出口額相比，潛在的升值空間就來自于堅持出口精煉銅礦出口。

However, there are significant gains to be made by processing other metal ores.然而，有一些可觀的收入就可能來自于其他金屬礦石加工。

About 94% of aluminium's final value comes from the refining and smelting stages, for example.大約94%的鋁礦最終價值來自提煉和熔煉程序，例如，熔煉增加了鎳礦石的價值。

Smelting adds a lot of value to nickel ore, too.但是，只要大量新的熔爐實(shí)際建成，印尼就會實(shí)現(xiàn)這些收入。

But Indonesia will achieve these gains only if plenty of new smelters are actually built.這些投入很昂貴，需要大量配套基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，Such plants are expensive, and require a lot of supporting infrastructure, such as power plants, ports and roads:Indonesiais terrible at building these.如電力，港口，道路：印尼很不擅長建造這些設(shè)施。

Moreover, world mineral prices are depressed and smelting margins are low.世界礦產(chǎn)價格持續(xù)低迷，熔煉利潤持續(xù)走低。

Nevertheless, the government says that many new smelters are in the works.不過，政府部門稱，很多熔爐都已投入使用。

China Hongqiao, that country's biggest privately owned aluminium producer, is building a 1 billion smelter in Borneo.中國虹橋公司，作為印尼最大的私有鋁礦生產(chǎn)者，正在Borneo建造一個價值十億美元的熔爐。

The Indonesian government says another big Chinese firm, Shandong Nanshan Aluminium, is investing 5 billion in a smelter, power plant and port on Bintan island.印尼政府說另一個大型中國公司，山東南山鋁業(yè)，正投資50億美元在Bintan島建造熔爐，電力系統(tǒng)，港口。

As for nickel, when President Xi Jinping visited Indonesia last October he witnessed the signing of several agreements by Chinese firms to build smelters to produce the metal, used in making stainless steel.至于鎳礦，去年十月份習(xí)近平主席拜訪印尼時，見證了中國公司建熔爐生產(chǎn)金屬制作不銹鋼的協(xié)議簽訂。

This was a reminder of how dependentChinais on Indonesian nickel supplies, and a hint that it may be more interested in securing those supplies than in whether its companies make profits from the new smelting plants.這是一個對中國的提醒，對印尼鎳礦提供有多么依賴，也是一個暗示，中國可能會對保護(hù)這些供給礦源產(chǎn)生更大的興趣，而不是在乎是否這些公司真正從這些新熔爐制造中盈利。

So although export bans are generally not a good idea, and using protectionism to foster “infant industries” is a policy that has produced more failures than successes, it is not impossible thatIndonesiawill achieve its hopes of moving its natural-resources industries up the value chain.因此，盡管出口禁令總體上不算個好點(diǎn)子，而且使用貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義來培育“新生產(chǎn)業(yè)”的政策往往帶來更多失敗而不是成功，但印尼也有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)它的期望，那就是將依賴自然資源的工業(yè)綁上盈利產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。

But at what cost in the meantime? 但是這樣做的同時需要付出什么代價呢？

A little bit of resource nationalism may win Mr Yudhoyono's allies a few votes in the parliamentary elections scheduled for April and the presidential one in July.一年資源國家主義可能會為尤多約諾總統(tǒng)在四月份的議會選舉和7月份的總統(tǒng)大選里贏得一些選票。

But it may lose a lot more if many smaller miners, who cannot afford to invest in smelters, close down and cut large numbers of jobs.但是也有可能失去更多的小型礦主，他們無力投資熔爐，導(dǎo)致倒閉和大量裁員。

If the short-term loss of export income exacerbates worries aboutIndonesia's current account, the consequences could be worse still.如果短期出口盈利損失使印尼貨幣貶值加劇，結(jié)局仍可能是更糟。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：有線電視耗資610億的提案

Business 商業(yè)報道

Cable television 有線電視

The 61 billion proposal 耗資610億的提案

The latest plot twists in a continuing television drama 電視連續(xù)劇中最新的情節(jié)突轉(zhuǎn)

SPURNED suitors usually nurse the wounds of rejection quietly.令人唾棄的起訴者通常悄然的治愈拒絕的傷口。

Not in the cable-television industry.Having unsuccessfully approached Time Warner Cable twice last year, Charter Communications, a rival American cable operator, has gone public with a new proposal.這并不是在電纜電視行業(yè)。美國有線電視運(yùn)營商的競爭對手Charter通訊，兩次試圖接近時代華納有線公司都未能成功，現(xiàn)在又有一個新的提案已經(jīng)上市。

On January 14th Charter announced a bid valuing TWC at 61 billion including debt, offering 132.50 ashare compared with the 95 or so they were fetching early last June, when rumours of its approach emerged.1月14日charter宣布為時代華納有限公司估價610億，提供一個份額132.50美元相比于原來的95美元高出許多。早在去年六月這些做法就流傳出來了。

Charter's boss, Tom Rutledge, wrote a public letter to Robert Marcus, the boss of TWC, beseeching him to consider the offer, and held a conference call to seek shareholders' backing for the bid.Charter的老板湯姆?拉特里奇寫了一封公開信給TWC的老板羅伯特馬庫斯，求他考慮該提案，并舉行了電話會議，以尋求股東的支持。

TWC's executives are playing hard to get: they want a higher price, and vow not to let Charter steal the company.TWC的高管們欲擒故縱，他們希望得到更高的價格，并發(fā)誓決不讓charter公司竊取。

For those who have been following this cable drama, it has been a question of when, not if, the industry would consolidate.對于那些一直在遵循這種電纜劇的人來說，一直有個有關(guān)行業(yè)鞏固的時間問題，而不是是否的問題。

TWC isAmerica's second-largest cable operator by subscribers, after Comcast, and Charter is the fourth-largest.TWC是繼康卡斯特后的美國第二大有線電視運(yùn)營商，而charter排名第四位。

John Malone, one of the industry's pioneers, whose company, Liberty Media, is Charter's biggest shareholder, is among many in the business calling for mergers.行業(yè)的先驅(qū)之一—約翰馬龍，他的公司自有媒體是行業(yè)最大的股東，也是眾多的業(yè)務(wù)中要求兼并的公司之一。

This would help cable firms fend off competition from satellite operators, phone companies and streaming services like Netflix, which are poaching their customers for internet service and for films and TV shows.這將幫助有線電視公司抵御來自衛(wèi)星運(yùn)營商，電話公司和如Netflix的流媒體服務(wù)等互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)對他們客戶的偷獵和對電視電影節(jié)目的競爭。

Besides letting them cut costs—Charter reckons a merger with TWC could save at least 500ma year—scale would also give cable operators more clout when negotiating with content providers over the rates they have to pay to carry their channels.除了讓他們削減成本，charter打算與TWC合并每年可以節(jié)省至少5億，而且在于提供商洽談必須支付的渠道費(fèi)率時也使有線運(yùn)營商更有底氣。

Last year TWC got into a fight with CBS over its fees, which led to a blackout of CBS channels for a month until the two reached agreement.去年TWC與CBS戰(zhàn)斗而花費(fèi)了過多的費(fèi)用，這導(dǎo)致CBS頻道停擺了一個多月，直到兩方協(xié)議達(dá)成。

TWC lost more than 300,000 customers during the third quarter, many of them as a result of this spat.TWC在第三季度失去了超過30萬客戶，其中不乏是因為這種爭吵而出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果。

With its latest proposal judged still inadequate, Charter will have to decide whether to offer more.其最新的提案也有不足之處，charter將不得不決定是否要提供更多。

Other cable firms, such as Comcast, may enter the fray, offering to buy all or part of TWC.其他的有線電視公司，如comcast公司，可能會加入戰(zhàn)斗，提供購買TWC所需的全部或部分資金。

Pay-television is not a growth business for cable operators, so they must become more creative to increase sales.付費(fèi)電視并不是有線電視運(yùn)營商增長業(yè)務(wù)的方式，所以他們想要增加銷售必須變得更有創(chuàng)意。

One area of experimentation is to offer broadband along with a light television package, as several cable providers are doing in certain markets, to appeal to wallet-wise youngsters.實(shí)驗的一個方面是提供寬帶伴隨著光的電視包裝，幾個有線運(yùn)營商正在做某些市場，以吸引錢包鼓鼓的青少年。

Others are selling metered broadband, with the cost tied to usage.其他正在銷售的計量寬帶，花費(fèi)和使用成本緊緊相連。

Cable firms and other internet providers may soon be free to try even more radical experiments with pricing.有線電視公司和其他互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)供應(yīng)商們可能很快可以嘗試更為激進(jìn)的實(shí)驗與定價。

On January 14th an appeals court struck down federal rules that required them to treat all internet traffic equally—a policy called net neutrality.1月14日上訴法院推翻了一個名為網(wǎng)絡(luò)中立的聯(lián)邦規(guī)則，這個政策要求他們對待所有互聯(lián)網(wǎng)流量相等。

If the court's ruling prevails, this would let cable firms and other internet providers start demanding payment from bandwidth-hungry suppliers of video, such as Netflix, for speedy delivery to viewers.如果以法院的判決為準(zhǔn)，這將讓有線電視公司和其他互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)供應(yīng)商開始要求高寬帶視頻用戶，如Netflix快速傳達(dá)給觀眾。

Besides giving cable firms a juicy new source of income, this could curb the expansion of an increasingly powerful group of competitors for providing packages of video content.除了給電纜公司提供收入的新來源，這可能遏制日益強(qiáng)大的集團(tuán)競爭對手?jǐn)U張?zhí)峁┮曨l內(nèi)容。

The cable firms could also favour video sites in which they had an interest: for example, Comcast part-owns Hulu, a rival to Netflix.電纜公司也可能對視頻網(wǎng)站感興趣，例如，Netflix的競爭對手hulu—他們有用comcast的部分股權(quán)。

As any fan knows, cable-TV dramas tend to be long-running and full of plot twists.由于任何人都知道，電纜電視劇往往是長時間運(yùn)行而又情節(jié)曲折，This one will probably be no different.Stay tuned.這其中可能會沒什么不同。敬請關(guān)注。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】無人駕駛飛機(jī) 呼叫這里是你的地面飛行員

Science and technology 科學(xué)技術(shù)

Pilotless aircraft 無人駕駛飛機(jī)

This is your ground pilot speaking 呼叫，這里是你的地面飛行員

Autonomous civil aircraft could be flying before cars go driverless 民用飛機(jī)會先于汽車實(shí)現(xiàn)無人駕駛

WITHIN the next few weeks a twin-engined Jetstream will take off from Warton Aerodrome in Lancashire, England, and head north towards Scotland.在接下來的幾周里，一架雙引擎飛機(jī)噴流將會從英格蘭蘭開夏郡的沃頓機(jī)場起飛，向北飛往蘇格蘭。

Like any other flight, the small commuter airliner will respond to instructions from air-traffic controllers, navigate a path and take care to avoid other aircraft.與其他班機(jī)一樣，這架小型通勤客機(jī)將會根據(jù)空中交通管制員的指示，沿著一條航路飛行，注意避開其他飛機(jī)。

But the pilot flying the aircraft will not be in the cockpit: he will have his feet firmly on the ground in a control room back at Warton.但是駕駛這架飛機(jī)的飛行員卻沒在駕駛艙里：他在沃頓機(jī)場的一個控制室里駕駛著飛機(jī)，雙腳仍然穩(wěn)穩(wěn)地踩在地面上。

Pilotless aircraft are now widely used by the armed forces, but those drones fly only in restricted airspace and conflict zones.無人機(jī)現(xiàn)在已廣泛應(yīng)用于軍隊之中，但這些無人機(jī)僅用于在禁飛區(qū)及沖突地區(qū)。

The Jetstream mission is part of a project to develop the technologies and procedures that will allow large commercial aircraft to operate routinely and safely without pilots in the same skies as manned civilian flights.而噴流的任務(wù)是某個技術(shù)及程序開發(fā)項目的一部分，該項目的目的在于能讓大型商用飛機(jī)在沒有飛行員的情況下安全的進(jìn)行常規(guī)飛行，與有人駕駛的民航班機(jī)在同一片天空中飛行。

Fasten your seat belts 系緊您的安全帶

To reassure those of a nervous disposition, the test flights do not carry passengers and pilots remain in the cockpit just in case things go wrong.為了讓那些神經(jīng)質(zhì)的人安心，測試的飛機(jī)不會有乘客，駕駛艙中仍然有駕駛員以防萬一，In that way they are similar to Google’s trials of driverless cars, which have drivers inside them to take over if necessary while on public roads.這有點(diǎn)類似于谷歌無人駕駛汽車的實(shí)驗，在公路上行駛時，如有必要，車中的駕駛員可以控制汽車。

Yet unmanned commercial aircraft are likely to enter service before people can buy autonomous cars.但是無人駕駛的商用飛機(jī)很可能在人們可以買到無人駕駛汽車前便能投入使用。

Modern aircraft are already perfectly capable of automatically taking off, flying to a destination and landing.現(xiàn)代的飛機(jī)已經(jīng)完全有能力進(jìn)行自動起飛，自動飛往目的地，自動著陸。

These tests are trying to establish whether they can do those things safely without a pilot in the cockpit and at the same time comply with the rules of the air.而要進(jìn)行的測試是想確認(rèn)在駕駛艙沒有飛行員的情況下，飛機(jī)能否在遵守飛行規(guī)則的同時，還能安全的完成以上三件事情。

Progress is being made, a conference in London heard this week.筆者本周從在倫敦召開的一次會議上獲悉，事情正在取得進(jìn)展。

It was organised by the Autonomous Systems Technology Related Airborne Evaluation and Assessment, the group staging the British test flights.本次會議是由機(jī)載無人系統(tǒng)技術(shù)評審組織舉辦的，就是該組織在英國進(jìn)行了無人機(jī)測試。

This 62m programme, backed by the British government, involves seven European aerospace companies: 該項目獲得了英國政府的支持，投資達(dá)六千兩百萬英鎊，共有七家歐洲的航空工業(yè)公司參與其中：

AOS, BAE Systems, Cassidian, Cobham, QinetiQ, Rolls-Royce and Thales.機(jī)載觀測系統(tǒng)公司，英國宇航系統(tǒng)公司，凱西典公司，科巴姆公司，奎奈蒂克公司，勞特萊斯公司及泰雷茲公司。

It is potentially a huge new market.這是一個潛在的巨大新興市場。

America’s aviation regulators have been asked by Congress to integrate unmanned aircraft into the air-traffic control system as early as 2015.美國國會已要求該國的航空協(xié)調(diào)員要在2015年將無人駕駛飛機(jī)加入空中交通管制系統(tǒng)。

Some small drones are already used in commercial applications, such as aerial photography, but in most countries they are confined to flying within sight of their ground pilot, much like radio-controlled model aircraft.有些小型無人機(jī)已經(jīng)應(yīng)用于航拍等商業(yè)用途，但在大多數(shù)國家，小型無人機(jī)的飛行范圍被限制在其地面飛行員的視野以內(nèi)，很像無線電遙控的模型飛機(jī)。

Bigger aircraft would be capable of flying farther and doing a lot more things.再大一點(diǎn)的無人機(jī)能夠飛的更遠(yuǎn)一些，可以做更多的事情。

Pilotless aircraft could carry out many jobs at a lower cost than manned aircraft and helicopters—tasks such as traffic monitoring, border patrols, police surveillance and checking power lines.無人駕駛飛機(jī)可以完成很多工作，并且比有人駕駛的飛機(jī)和直升機(jī)成本更低，比如說交通監(jiān)測，邊境巡邏，警務(wù)監(jiān)視及電纜檢查等任務(wù)。

They could also operate in conditions that are dangerous for pilots, including monitoring forest fires or nuclear-power accidents.無人機(jī)還可以在對飛行員有危險的環(huán)境下工作，包括監(jiān)視森林火災(zāi)或核電事故。

And they could fly extended missions for search and rescue, environmental monitoring or even provide temporary airborne Wi-Fi and mobile-phone services.而且無人機(jī)還可以執(zhí)行更多的任務(wù)，如搜索救援，環(huán)境監(jiān)測，甚至提供臨時的機(jī)載無線網(wǎng)絡(luò)和移動電話服務(wù)。

Some analysts think the global civilian market for unmanned aircraft and services could be worth more than $50 billion by 2020.有分析師認(rèn)為，到2020年，無人駕駛飛機(jī)及其服務(wù)的全球民用市場的價值可超過500億美元。

Whatever happens, pilots will still have a role in aviation, although not necessarily in the cockpit.無論發(fā)生什么，飛行員仍會在航空業(yè)占有一席之地，雖然不一定是在駕駛艙里。

As far as the eye can see there will always be a pilot in command of an aircraft, says Lambert Dopping-Hepenstal, the director of ASTRAEA.在可以預(yù)見的未來，飛機(jī)一直都會由飛行員掌控，ASTRAEA的主任Lambert Dopping-Hepenstal說，But that pilot may be on the ground and he may be looking after more than one unmanned aircraft at the same time.但飛行員或許會留在地面上，有可能同時照看好幾架無人機(jī)。

Commercial flights carrying freight and express parcels might one day also lose their on-board pilots.運(yùn)送貨物和快遞包裹的商用飛機(jī)某天也可能會失去其隨機(jī)的飛行員。

But would even the most penny-pinching cut-price airline be able to sell tickets to passengers on flights that have an empty cockpit? 但就算廉價航空公司再怎么精打細(xì)算，它能把沒有飛行員的飛機(jī)的機(jī)票賣出去嗎？

More realistically, those flights might have just one pilot in the future.更現(xiàn)實(shí)點(diǎn)說，未來的商用飛機(jī)可能只有一名飛行員。

Technology has already relieved the flight deck of a number of jobs.飛行班組的許多職位已經(jīng)被技術(shù)取代了。

Many early large aircraft had a crew of five: two pilots, a flight engineer, a navigator and a radio operator.許多早期的大型飛機(jī)上有五名機(jī)組成員：兩名飛行員，一名飛行機(jī)師，一名領(lǐng)航員及一名無線電話務(wù)員。

First the radio operator went, then the navigator, and by the time the jet era was well under way in the 1970s flight engineers began to disappear too.最先是無線電話務(wù)員消失了，然后是領(lǐng)航員，等到了20世紀(jì)70年代，進(jìn)入噴氣機(jī)時代后，飛行機(jī)師也消失了。

Next it could be the co-pilot, replaced by the autonomous flight systems now being developed.下一個消失的會是副駕駛，被現(xiàn)在正在開發(fā)中的自主飛行系統(tǒng)取代。

The flight over Scotland will test how well air-traffic controllers can communicate with the ground pilot through the aircraft.在那架飛往蘇格蘭的飛機(jī)上將會測試空中交通管制員通過飛機(jī)與其地面飛行員通話的質(zhì)量。

The project is also exploring ways to make the radio and satellite links secure and reliable.該項目還在探尋使無線電及衛(wèi)星連接安全可靠的方法。

But engineers still have to prepare for the eventuality that the link breaks;the aircraft then has to have enough autonomy to operate safely until communications are restored or it can land using its own guidance systems.但是工程師仍必須為連接中斷的可能性做好準(zhǔn)備；然后飛機(jī)必須要有足夠的自主權(quán)來保證飛行安全，直至通訊恢復(fù)正常，或者能夠使用自己的導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)著陸。

Unmanned aircraft will, therefore, need a sense and avoid capability.因此無人駕駛飛機(jī)需要感應(yīng)并規(guī)避的能力。

This can be provided by transponders that bleep the aircraft’s presence to other aeroplanes and air-traffic controllers.異頻雷達(dá)收發(fā)機(jī)便具備這一功能，它會發(fā)出嗶嗶聲來提示其它飛機(jī)及空中交通管制員本飛機(jī)的存在。

But not all manned aircraft have such kit.但并非所有的有人駕駛飛機(jī)都有該功能。

Some light aircraft and gliders operating at low altitudes in clear weather are not required to have even radios, let alone transponders or radar.一些在晴朗天氣下進(jìn)行低空飛行的輕型飛機(jī)和滑翔機(jī)甚至不需要無線電，更別提異頻雷達(dá)收發(fā)機(jī)或雷達(dá)了。

Which is why pilots keep their eyes peeled when such traffic might be about.這也是為什么在可能發(fā)生這種情況時，飛行員要時刻保持警惕。

ASTRAEA’s Jetstream, therefore, also uses video cameras to allow the ground pilot to look around outside the cockpit.因此ASTRAEA的捷流號還使用了攝像頭以便使地面飛行員可以查看駕駛艙外的情況。

Image-recognition software can warn of other aircraft.影像識別軟件可以在出現(xiàn)其它飛機(jī)時發(fā)出警告，This is being tested against different backgrounds, such as a cluttered landscape or a hazy sky.目前正在不同的環(huán)境下對該功能進(jìn)行測試，如地形復(fù)雜或天空霧蒙蒙的環(huán)境。

In other trials, different aircraft are being flown in the vicinity of the Jetstream, and some of them will be flown deliberately towards it on a potential collision course, to see if these intruding aircraft can be recognised by the automated systems and the appropriate avoiding action taken.在其它的試驗中，不同的飛機(jī)飛至捷流附近，其中幾架故意以可能與之相撞的航線飛向捷流，以測試自動系統(tǒng)能否識別這些入侵的飛機(jī)并采取適當(dāng)?shù)囊?guī)避措施。

These flights are taking place in an area cleared of other aircraft over the Irish Sea.以上飛行測試是在愛爾蘭海上空一片沒有其它飛機(jī)經(jīng)過的空域進(jìn)行的。

The results to date suggest you can do sense-and-avoid as well as a human, says Mr Dopping-Hepenstal.迄今為止的測試結(jié)果表明系統(tǒng)的感應(yīng)并規(guī)避的能力能做到和人一樣，Dopping-Hepensta說。

A pilotless plane must also be able to act autonomously in an emergency.在發(fā)生緊急狀況時，無人機(jī)必須能夠自行采取行動。

In the event of an engine failure, for instance, it could use its navigational map to locate a suitable area to put down.比如，如果一臺引擎發(fā)生故障，無人機(jī)需要使用其航行圖來找到合適地點(diǎn)降落。

But what if this was an open field that happened to be in use for, say, a fair? 但如果其選擇的空地恰好被占用了，比如說成了集市，怎么辦？

A forward-looking video camera might show a ground pilot that.此時前視攝像頭會將此影像傳給地面飛行員。

But if communications were lost the aircraft would rely on image-recognition software and an infra-red camera to detect the heat given off by people and machines and so decide to try to land elsewhere.但如果通訊中斷，飛機(jī)將依靠影像識別軟件及紅外攝像頭來感知人或機(jī)器發(fā)出的熱量，以此來決定去其它地點(diǎn)降落。

The ASTRAEA researchers are carrying out a lot of their work using flight simulators and air-traffic-control data.ASTRAEA的研究人員的許多工作都是通過飛行模擬裝置及空中交通管制數(shù)據(jù)來完成的。

But eventually they will still have to prove that their systems can work in the real world—even during emergency landings.但最終他們還是要證明他們的系統(tǒng)要能應(yīng)用在現(xiàn)實(shí)的世界里，甚至在緊急迫降時也能使用。

In order to satisfy risk-averse aviation regulators, the researchers are working with Britain’s Civil Aviation Authority to certify a virtual pilotless aircraft for use in civil airspace.為了讓民航協(xié)調(diào)員在規(guī)避風(fēng)險方面滿意，研究人員與英國民航局一起驗證了虛擬的無人機(jī)用于民用空域的可行性，The intention is not to certify an actual aircraft, but for both sides to learn what will be required to do so.其目的并非是要對真正的無人機(jī)進(jìn)行驗證，而是為了讓雙方了解需要為此做些什么。

Some of the technologies being developed are also likely to find their way into manned aircraft as a backup for pilots, and possibly for cars too.開發(fā)出來技術(shù)中有一些可能作為飛行員的后備而應(yīng)用到有人駕駛飛機(jī)，還有可能應(yīng)用到汽車上。

Systems that provide automatic braking and motorway-lane control, for instance, already feature in many types of car.例如，許多種的汽車都已經(jīng)配備了自動剎車及公路車道控制系統(tǒng)。

These features take cars some of the way towards autonomy.這些功能讓汽車走上了無人駕駛之路。

But driverless cars, like pilotless planes, will have to fit in with existing infrastructure and regulations, not least insurance liability, before they can take off.但是無人駕駛汽車與無人駕駛飛機(jī)一樣，在出發(fā)前，需要先符合現(xiàn)有的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施及規(guī)章，尤其是明確保險責(zé)任。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：巴基斯坦的軍事力量，失去駕駛權(quán)的司機(jī)

Asia

亞洲中國

Pakistan's armed forces 巴基斯坦的軍事力量

Out of the driving seat 失去駕駛權(quán)的司機(jī)

The prime minister wants to put the army in its place 巴基斯坦的總統(tǒng)想要把軍隊置于此地。

IT IS said that the army chief is the most powerful man in Pakistan.據(jù)稱軍隊總司令是巴基斯坦權(quán)利最大的人。

Even so, the prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, made a point of keeping the new head waiting for as long as possible.至于說，侯賽因總統(tǒng)提出想見這位總司令都要加入其等待長隊的行列。

Breaking with the convention that gives the new chief a month or two to prepare, Mr Sharif named a successor just two days before the outgoing chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, a former spymaster turned double-term army chief, was due to retire.被中斷的大會告訴新總統(tǒng)，給他兩個月去準(zhǔn)備，在前任軍方總司令離職后，侯賽因總統(tǒng)任命了繼承人。前總司令卡亞尼曾任一位擔(dān)任兩個軍隊的司令，前任間諜領(lǐng)頭。他面臨退休而不得不離開崗位。

Lieutenant General Raheel Sharif will now control not only a vast army and the world's fastest-growing nuclear arsenal, but a business empire ranging from cornflakes to luxury housing.拉赫利·謝里夫不將會主宰多方位的軍隊，還會掌權(quán)逐漸擴(kuò)張的核能軍火庫。

So why the delay?

為什么推遲了如此久才定音?

The prime minister is not always decisive, and bear in mind that the last time he picked an army chief, Pervez Musharraf in 1998, his appointee ousted him in a coup a year later.總統(tǒng)也不是神，永遠(yuǎn)能夠很快地做出有效的決定。在1988年，在經(jīng)過慎重考慮之后，侯賽因總統(tǒng)任命佩爾韋茲·穆沙拉夫作為軍方總司令，而他的上司，那個指定他的人，在過后的幾年將他罷職。

Others, however, suspect an attempt by Mr Sharif to assert civilian authority over an army that needs to be put in its place.有些人懷疑謝里夫想要維持文官權(quán)利高于軍隊，所以不得不做到這步。

The army sees itself as both embodiment and guarantor of the nation.軍隊認(rèn)為他們是既國家的捍衛(wèi)者又是國家的化身。

Yet it has long been at the root of Pakistan's deepest problems.盡管這長時間以來一直是巴基斯坦最根本的問題。

By meddling in elections and mounting coups, it has weakened the political classes, whose consequent ineptitude and corruption gives it cause to meddle again.通過一系列的干預(yù)競選和愈加劇烈的政變，政治階級已經(jīng)被削弱。而緊接著的便是無能和不稱職公仆和不斷的賄賂，這又導(dǎo)致了再一次政治干預(yù)。

It has a history of disastrous military adventures.在歷史上記載著一次軍隊災(zāi)難性的經(jīng)歷。

And it has made common cause with militant Islamists who it hoped would further its interests abroad—keeping India on edge to the south and sowing confusion in Afghanistan to the north in hopes of preventing anti-Pakistan forces growing there.而原因是同樣的—穆斯林軍人想要對外擴(kuò)張，取得更多利益—把印度置于南方的邊際，在阿富汗的北面散布迷惑信息，以防止反巴基斯坦勢力上漲。

The country is now paying a terrible price for its sponsorship of foreign terror.目前，巴基斯坦在國際反恐活動中提供了高得離譜的資助，It has spawned dozens of local extremist groups attacking Pakistan itself.這卻導(dǎo)致多數(shù)的巴基斯坦本地極端分子集團(tuán)攻擊本國人。

Since 2001 nearly 50,000 Pakistanis have died in terror-related violence.自2001年起，已經(jīng)有五十萬巴基斯坦人民由于恐怖分子引發(fā)的相關(guān)犯罪事件而死亡。

For a long time the generals refused to see the Islamists for the threat they are.很長一段時間來，高層們一直不承認(rèn)穆斯林分子對他們來說是一個威脅的存在。

Officers from the army's spy wing, Inter-Services Intelligence, were probably involved in funding and planning deadly attacks in Mumbai in 2008 carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba.2008年，一群出自情報局的軍方間諜在孟買被虔誠軍襲擊致死。

General Kayani may have been as bad as the rest.當(dāng)時的總司令卡亞尼可能已經(jīng)看出其他穆斯林分子也將跟虔誠軍一樣頑劣。

While he was rising to the top, the Afghan Taliban regrouped, the Mumbai attacks were planned, and Osama bin Laden settled in a garrison town.于是當(dāng)他的權(quán)利處于上位時，阿富汗塔利班的軍隊被重新部署，孟買襲擊在當(dāng)時也開始進(jìn)行策劃。當(dāng)時本拉登被安置在駐防區(qū)的小鎮(zhèn)里。

Yet along the way the soldier-spy grew into the pragmatist committed to getting the army out of the driving seat and nurturing Pakistan's return to democracy.然而，偽裝成士兵的間諜務(wù)實(shí)地保證，要將軍隊攆出獨(dú)裁，主導(dǎo)之位，要使巴基斯坦重回民主之路。

He and Mr Sharif seem to have got on, while the Americans respected him.此人和總司令已有交手，而美國人表現(xiàn)出更尊重他。

Crucially, says Asad Munir, a retired ISI brigadier, he began to understand the nature of the existential threat posed by militant Islam.重要的是，前情報局參謀長穆尼爾說，他已經(jīng)明白，目前存在的威脅本質(zhì)就是穆斯林軍人。

Military force is required to take it on, particularly in North Waziristan, a tribal area which an alphabet soup of al-Qaeda affiliates have made their base.軍方勢力要求要掌握在手，特別是部落地區(qū)北瓦齊里斯坦，是一碗基于附屬基地組織的字母湯

General Sharif's appointment was a surprise.總司令謝里夫的任命是很令人驚訝的。

But the good news is that he shares General Kayani's thinking on domestic militancy.但是值得一喜的是，他前前總司令卡亞尼交流了關(guān)于國內(nèi)軍事力量的想法。

In charge of army training, he was closely involved in efforts to retool an army trained for set-piece battles with India for counter-insurgency in the country's wild tribal west.他想要接近于重組一支訓(xùn)練有素的軍隊，為巴基斯坦西面廣闊的部落地帶與印度的反動起義戰(zhàn)爭定下籌碼。

Like General Kayani, he knows first-hand the futility of peace accords that militant groups soon renege on.前總司令卡亞尼知道，無戰(zhàn)爭代價的和平定將帶來無效的回應(yīng)——對方軍隊一定很快就會食言。

The problem is that the prime minister has yet to produce a national counter-terrorism strategy and says

peace talks must be tried first.而問題就是，侯賽因總統(tǒng)已經(jīng)將國內(nèi)反恐怖主義戰(zhàn)略定案，同時宣稱，必須先保證和平。

It is a cause with minimal chance of success, but one hotly promoted by much of the political establishment.盡管這只是一個非常難以成功的方案，但是政治大量完善與建成被激烈地推崇。

Many more innocent lives may have to be lost before the politicians find the nerve for a military solution.在政治家發(fā)想要運(yùn)用軍事能夠解決問題之前，可能很多無辜的生命都將面臨著犧牲。

Elsewhere irritation with civilian government is already flowering among junior officers.But there is no mood to take over.公民政府的無理取鬧已經(jīng)在老一輩的官員里傳開，可是沒有人有此閑情雅致去掌權(quán)。

Mr Musharraf's eight years in power were a disaster.穆沙拉夫八年執(zhí)政便是場災(zāi)難軍方不可挑戰(zhàn)的高高權(quán)威已經(jīng)引起了廣播的大肆宣傳。

The army's once-unchallenged authority has leeched away to a set of rambunctiousbroadcast media, an activist supreme court and civilian politicians who this year successfully transferred power from one elected government to another—a first for Pakistan.Good governance is the best way for civilian rulers to keep the army off their backs.一位最高法院激進(jìn)的官員第在巴基斯坦在一個政府的倒戈，另一個政權(quán)的崛起之下，成功轉(zhuǎn)移了自己的實(shí)力。對于秩序制定者來說，一個好的政府應(yīng)該把軍隊控制之下而非之上。

Still, the army can always play a spoiling game, especially when it comes to relations with India.依然地，軍隊一直在玩掃興的游戲，特別是在與印度的關(guān)系上。

It makes no secret of despising Mr Sharif's enthusiasm for a rapid normalisation of relations, and opposes a crucial free-trade deal.這是正大光明地鄙視謝里夫熱忱于對社會秩序的塑造，反對自由貿(mào)易的重要則曾。

And even as Mr Sharif dreams of visa-less travel across the Indo-Pakistani border, after years of relative calm the ceasefire line in contested Kashmir has become hot again.就當(dāng)謝里夫夢想穿越巴基斯坦-印度邊際不需要簽證時，緩和多年熄戰(zhàn)線現(xiàn)在又熱了起來。

The officers probably deserve some of the blame for that.以這方面而言，責(zé)備，是政府應(yīng)得的。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：表觀遺傳學(xué)與健康，祖母的詛咒

Science and technology 科學(xué)技術(shù)

Epigenetics and health 表觀遺傳學(xué)與健康

Grandma's curse 祖母的詛咒

Some of the effects of smoking may be passed from grandmother to grandchild 祖母吸煙產(chǎn)生的影響可以會遺傳至孫子或?qū)O女

Think of your grandchildren!想想你的孫輩吧!

ONE of biology's hottest topics is epigenetics.當(dāng)今生物學(xué)最熱的話題之一是表觀遺傳學(xué)，The term itself covers a multitude of sins.這個術(shù)語本身就涵蓋了許多宗罪。

Strictly speaking, it refers to the regulation of gene expression by the chemical modification of DNA, or of the histone proteins in which DNA is usually wrapped.嚴(yán)格來說，表觀遺傳學(xué)研究的是DNA或含有DNA的組蛋白化學(xué)改性中的基因表達(dá)調(diào)控現(xiàn)象。

This modification is either the addition of methyl groups to the DNA or of acetyl groups to the histones.這種改性或者是甲基增至DNA中，或者是乙?；黾拥浇M蛋白中。

Methylation switches genes off.甲基化作用關(guān)閉基因，Acetylation switches them on.乙?；饔脝踊?。

Since, in a multicellular organism, different cells need different genes to be active, such regulation is vital.由于在多細(xì)胞有機(jī)體中，不同的細(xì)胞需要借助不同的基因以激活自身，所以這種調(diào)控至關(guān)重要。

What has got a lot of people excited, though, is the idea that epigenetic switches might be transmitted down the generations.但令人興奮的是，有觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，表觀遺傳現(xiàn)象中的基因表達(dá)調(diào)控功能有可能世代相傳。

Some see this as contrary to Darwinism, since it would permit characteristics acquired during an organism's lifetime to be passed on to its offspring, as suggested by a rival theory of evolution put forward by Jean-Baptiste Lamarck.有些人將之視為對達(dá)爾文學(xué)說的反證，因為這將允許有機(jī)體存活期間所獲得的特征遺傳給后代，正如法國著名生物學(xué)家讓巴蒂斯特拉馬克所提出的與進(jìn)化論相對的學(xué)說。

This is an exaggeration.這種想法有些夸張了。

The DNA sequence itself is not being permanently altered.基因序列不會一直變化，Even those epigenetic changes that are inherited seem to be subsequently reversible.甚至那些表觀遺傳學(xué)意義上的變化遺傳給下一代后，似乎仍然存在可逆性。

But the idea that acquired characteristics can be inherited at all is still an important and novel one, and a worrying example of the phenomenon has been published this week in BioMed Central Medicine.但是，因表觀遺傳現(xiàn)象所獲得的特征完全可以遺傳的觀點(diǎn)仍然新穎且重要。本周，BioMed Central Medicine刊出了一項研究，可例證這一現(xiàn)象，其結(jié)果令人擔(dān)憂。

The study in question, by Virender Rehan of the Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute, and his colleagues, was of the intergenerational effects of nicotine.該項研究是由洛杉磯生物醫(yī)學(xué)研究所的Virender Rehan和他的同事們開展的，研究的是尼古丁的代際影響。

It was done in rats, but a rat's physiology is sufficiently similar to a human's to suspect the same thing may be true in Homo sapiens.研究人員雖然在大鼠身上進(jìn)行實(shí)驗，但因為大鼠的生理機(jī)能與人類十分相像，所以研究人員懷疑對于大鼠的研究結(jié)果可能同樣適用于智人。

In a nutshell, Dr Rehan showed that if pregnant rats are exposed to nicotine, not only will their offspring develop the asthma induced by this drug, so will the offspring of those offspring.簡而言之，Rehan博士想說明的是，如果大鼠懷孕時接觸尼古丁，不僅下一代會因此患上哮喘，第三代也會深受其害。

Dr Rehan and his team injected their rats with nicotine when they were six days pregnant.Rehan博士和他的團(tuán)隊在大鼠懷孕的第六天為其注射尼古丁。

They then allowed them to give birth and raised the pups to the age of three weeks, before some were examined.大鼠的后代出生后，由母鼠養(yǎng)育三周。

The rest were allowed to mature and breed, and their own offspring were similarly examined.然后研究人員選取一部分后代進(jìn)行檢查，其余的第二代大鼠繼續(xù)生長繁殖，最后研究人員對第三代大鼠進(jìn)行類似的檢驗。

There was, however, no further administration of nicotine.但是，第二代大鼠在妊娠期間，不再被注射尼古丁。

The pups of the treated mothers had asthmatic lungs.檢測發(fā)現(xiàn)，被注射尼古丁的母鼠所繁殖的第二代大鼠肺部有哮喘病變。

The organs' airways were constricted, 大鼠肺部的氣道處于收縮狀態(tài)。

and molecular analysis showed abnormally high levels of fibronectin and collagen—which would stiffen the lung tissue—and also high levels of receptor molecules for nicotine.經(jīng)過分子分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，大鼠肺部的纖維連接蛋白和膠原蛋白含量異常升高，這將導(dǎo)致肺組織硬化;同時尼古丁受體分子增加。

That was expected, since the developing embryos were exposed to the nicotine when their mothers were treated.結(jié)果表明，母鼠被注射尼古丁后，其后代在胚胎發(fā)育時期就會受尼古丁的影響，這一結(jié)果正如預(yù)期。

However, when the team did similar tests on the grand-offspring of the treated mothers, they got similar results.但是，當(dāng)研究團(tuán)隊對第三代大鼠進(jìn)行類似檢查時，發(fā)現(xiàn)了同樣的情況，Those grand-offspring had not been exposed to nicotine.即使這些第三代大鼠并沒有接觸尼古丁。

The cause of the grand-offsprings' asthma, Dr Rehan believes, is epigenetic modification.Rehan博士認(rèn)為，第三代大鼠的哮喘是表觀遺傳中的改性現(xiàn)象。

Nicotine is not only affecting lung cells, but also affecting sex cells in ways that cause the lungs which ultimately develop from those cells to express their genes in the same abnormal ways.尼古丁不僅侵襲肺部細(xì)胞，還會影響生殖細(xì)胞，使得生殖細(xì)胞在發(fā)育器官時，在肺部異常表達(dá)基因，導(dǎo)致新發(fā)育的肺部同樣受到尼古丁的不良影響。

Exactly what those epigenetic changes are is hard to track down.表觀遺傳現(xiàn)象具體引起了哪種變化，目前難以獲知。

The team have started looking, but could find no clear pattern except that one form of nicotine-induced acetylation, that of H3 histones, could be blocked by a molecule called RGZ.研究團(tuán)隊已經(jīng)開始研究這一問題，但目前只研究出一種明確的模式：尼古丁會引起H3組蛋白的乙?；琓his molecule is also known to protect lungs against the asthma-causing effects of nicotine.進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致一種叫做RGZ的分子受到抑制，而目前已知RGZ分子可以保護(hù)肺臟，使其免受由尼古丁引起的哮喘。

That suggests it is the acetylation of H3 histones rather than the methylation of DNA itself that is creating the effect.這表明由尼古丁引起的哮喘是源于H3組蛋白的乙酰化，而非DNA自身的甲基化作用。

Which crucial genes these histones surround remains obscure.研究團(tuán)隊目前沒有研究出這些受影響的組蛋白包含著哪些關(guān)鍵基因，Nor have the team yet found out whether the epigenetic effect they have discovered reaches further than grand-offspring.也沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)表觀遺傳的影響是否會延續(xù)至第三代以下的后代。

If it does, though, it suggests that epigenetics really might act like the biblical curse:

然而，如果有研究表明后生效應(yīng)會世代相傳的話，這就表明表觀遺傳現(xiàn)象真真是有如圣經(jīng)上的詛咒：

that the sins of the fathers will be visited on the sons, even unto the third and fourth generations.父輩的罪孽，會降罪至他們的下一代身上，甚至?xí)永m(xù)至第三代或者第四代。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：超級計算更深奧的思維

Science and technology 科學(xué)技術(shù)

Supercomputing 超級計算

Deeper thought 更深奧的思維

The world has a new fastest computer, thanks to video games 多虧電子游戲，讓世界擁有了一臺新的最快的計算機(jī)

The ultimate games machine 終極游戲機(jī)

SPEED fanatics that they are, computer nerds like to check the website of Top500, a collaboration between German and American computer scientists that keeps tabs on which of the world's supercomputers is the fastest.作為速度控，電腦迷們喜歡查看Top500的網(wǎng)站，該網(wǎng)站是由德國和美國的計算機(jī)科學(xué)家合辦，記錄世界上最快的超級計算機(jī)。

On November 12th the website released its latest list, and unveiled a new champion.11月12日，該網(wǎng)站發(fā)布了最新榜單，揭開了新一任冠軍的面紗。

The computer in question is called Titan, and it lives at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in Tennessee.獲得冠軍的計算機(jī)名為泰坦，居于田納西州的橡樹嶺國家實(shí)驗室，It took first place from another American machine, IBM's Sequoia, which is housed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in California.它是擊敗了另一臺美國的計算機(jī)-IBM的紅杉而取得冠軍的，紅杉位于加利福尼亞州的勞倫斯利物莫國家實(shí)驗室。

These two machines have helped reassert America's dominance of a list that had, in the past few years, been headed by computers from China and Japan.這兩臺計算機(jī)使美國重新在Top500榜單上獲得優(yōu)勢地位，而在過去數(shù)年，中國和日本的計算機(jī)一直雄踞榜首。

Titan is different from the previous champion in several ways.泰坦與之前的冠軍在多個方面均有所不同。

For one thing, it is an open system, meaning that scientific researchers with sufficiently thorny problems will be able to bid for time on it, in much the same way that astronomers can bid for time on telescopes.其一，它是一個開放的系統(tǒng)，意味著科研人員可以爭取泰坦的使用時間來解決非常棘手的問題，與天文學(xué)家爭取天文望遠(yuǎn)鏡使用時間的方式差不多。

Sequoia, by contrast, spends most of its time running hush-hush simulations of exploding nuclear weapons, and is therefore rarely available for public use.相比之下，紅杉將其大多數(shù)時間用在絕密的核武器爆炸模擬上，因此很少用于公共用途。

Titan has an unusual design, too.泰坦的設(shè)計也與眾不同。

All supercomputers are composed of thousands of processor chips harnessed together.所有的超級計算機(jī)是由成千上萬個處理芯片連在一起組成的。

Often, these are derivatives of the central processing units, or CPUs, that sit at the heart of modern, desktop machines.這些芯片通常都是由現(xiàn)代臺式電腦的心臟-中央處理器，即CPU，衍生出來的。

But Titan derives the majority of its oomph—more than 90%—from technology originally developed for the video-game industry.但是泰坦的大部分性能源于最初由電子游戲行業(yè)開發(fā)出來的技術(shù)。

Half of its 37,376 processors are ordinary CPUs.泰坦有37376個處理器，其中一半是普通CPU，But the other half are graphics processing units, or GPUs.但另外一半是圖形處理器，即GPU。

These are specialised devices designed to cope with modern video games, which are some of the most demanding applications any home machine is ever likely to run.GPU是用于處理現(xiàn)代電子游戲的專業(yè)設(shè)備，其中一些要求最苛刻的游戲甚至都沒有家用機(jī)能運(yùn)行起來。

China's TianHe-1 machine, a previous Top500 champion, was built in the same way, as are 60 other machines in the Top500 list.前Top500冠軍，中國的天河1號也是采用同樣的方式搭建的，Top500榜單中還有60臺計算機(jī)也是用此方式搭建的。

Parallel worlds 并行的世界

Broadly speaking, a CPU—which will be expected to run everything from spreadsheets to voice-recognition software to encoded video—has to be a generalist, competent at every sort of mathematical task but excelling at nothing.從廣義上說，一個CPU—被寄予運(yùn)行一切事物的厚望，從電子表格到語音視頻軟件，再到解碼視頻—必須成為一個全能選手，要勝任所有類型的數(shù)學(xué)計算任務(wù)，但卻無一精通。

A GPU, by contrast, is designed to excel at one thing only: manipulating huge numbers of the

triangles out of which all modern computer graphics are made.相比之下，GPU就是為專精一件事而特別設(shè)計的：操控大量的三角形，所有現(xiàn)代計算機(jī)的圖形都是由這些三角形構(gòu)成的。

Several years ago researchers at Nvidia and AMD realised that many scientific problems which demand huge amounts of computing power—everything from climate simulations and modelling combustion in an engine to seismic analysis for the oil-and-gas industry—could be translated into a form that was digestible by their GPUs.幾年前，英偉達(dá)及超微半導(dǎo)體的研究人員意識到許多需要大量運(yùn)算能力的科學(xué)問題—從氣候模擬及發(fā)動機(jī)燃燒方式建模到油氣行業(yè)的抗震分析—都可以轉(zhuǎn)譯成GPU可以理解的形式。

Soon after, supercomputer builders such as Cray began to take notice.此后不久，這開始引起了超級計算機(jī)制造商的注意，如克雷。

Borrowing from the games industry in this way brings several benefits.One big one is efficiency.以這種方式借鑒游戲行業(yè)的技術(shù)帶來諸多好處。最大的一個好處是效能。

Titan is an upgrade of Oak Ridge's existing Jaguar machine.泰坦是橡樹嶺現(xiàn)有的美洲虎超級計算機(jī)的升級版。

Upgrading Jaguar with ordinary CPUs would have meant building a computer that sucked around 30MW of electricity when running flat out—enough juice to power a small town.如使用普通的CPU對美洲虎進(jìn)行升級，則意味著升級后的計算機(jī)在全速運(yùn)行時將會狂飲大約30MW的電力，這么多電力供給一個小鎮(zhèn)都綽綽有余。

Because GPUs are so good at their specialised tasks, Titan can achieve its blistering performance while sipping a modest 8.2MW.由于GPU非常擅長處理專門性務(wù)，泰坦在達(dá)到最高性能時只是抿掉8.2MW的電力，不算太多。

It makes sense financially, too, says Sumit Gupta, head of supercomputing at Nvidia.使用GPU從經(jīng)濟(jì)上說也頗有意義，英偉達(dá)超級計算業(yè)務(wù)的負(fù)責(zé)人蘇米特古普塔稱。

The chips that the firm sells to supercomputer-makers are almost identical to those it sells to gamers.英偉達(dá)銷售給超級計算機(jī)制造商的GPU幾乎與銷售給游戲玩家的GPU完全相同。

As Dr Gupta observes, The history of high-performance computing is littered with the bodies of firms that tried to build products just for the supercomputing market.據(jù)古普塔博士觀察，在高性能運(yùn)算的歷史上，遍布著那些只想為超級計算機(jī)市場提供產(chǎn)品的公司的尸體，By itself, it's just too small a niche.就其自身而言，這個利基市場太過狹小了。

It is not all upsides, though.然而使用GPU也有不利的一面。

Machines like Titan achieve their speed by breaking a problem into thousands of tiny pieces and farming each out to a single processor.泰坦這類計算機(jī)是將一個問題打散為成千上萬個小碎片，然后將每個小碎片分發(fā)給單獨(dú)的處理器運(yùn)算，從而達(dá)到其很高的運(yùn)算速度。

A helpful analogy, perhaps, is painting a house: one strategy might be to hire a single painter, but it is probably quicker to employ several people and give each a room to do.或許將其比喻為粉刷房子有助于理解：一種策略是只雇用一名粉刷工，但是多雇幾個粉刷工，然后每人刷一個房間很可能會更快一點(diǎn)。

Not all problems are susceptible to being chopped up in such a way, though.然而不是所有的問題都能以這種方式切分。

The requirement to translate a problem into the sort of mathematics that a GPU can digest adds another barrier.而將一個問題轉(zhuǎn)譯為GPU可以理解的那中數(shù)學(xué)運(yùn)算問題也是一個障礙。

Dr Gupta gives the example of the models used to simulate how a car will react in a crash as one problem that has so far resisted what the industry calls the massively parallel approach.古普塔博士舉了模擬汽車碰撞的模型的例子，解決該問題目前仍需采用被行業(yè)稱為大規(guī)模并行的方法。

Clever programmers can sometimes find a way around such issues: ray-tracing, a high-quality, mathematically intense approach to computer graphics that aims to simulate individual light rays, was, ironically, long thought to be the kind of problem that a modern GPU would struggle with.聰明的程序員有時能夠找到繞過這種問題的方法：射線追蹤，是一種針對電腦圖形的高質(zhì)量，數(shù)學(xué)運(yùn)算頻繁的方法，目的是模擬單獨(dú)的光線。但諷刺的是，射線追蹤一直被認(rèn)為是現(xiàn)代GPU難以處理的一類問題，Yet at a graphics conference in 2008, a group of researchers from Nvidia announced that they had, nevertheless, found a way to do it.但在2008年的一次圖形大會上，一個來自英偉達(dá)的研究團(tuán)隊宣布，盡管這類問題很難，但他們還是找到了處理的方法。

Oak Ridge and Nvidia plan to work with scientists wanting time on Titan to see if their algorithms can be tweaked in similar ways, to make them digestible by the new machine.橡樹嶺和英偉達(dá)計劃和想要使用泰坦的科學(xué)家合作，來檢查這些科學(xué)家的算法是否能夠以類似的方式進(jìn)行微調(diào)，使新計算機(jī)能夠理解這些算法。

Dr Gupta is bullish.古普塔博士對其表示樂觀。

Even the recalcitrant car-crash simulations, he thinks, will yield to the new approach soon.他認(rèn)為，即便是頑固的汽車碰撞模擬問題不久也會出現(xiàn)新的解決方法。

But that is not to say that every problem can be made to work.但這并不是說所有的問題都能解決。

And those scientists who find that they cannot tweak their code may find themselves struggling to take advantage of the ever-rising performance of the world's fastest computers.對于無法對其編碼進(jìn)行微調(diào)的科學(xué)家來說，會發(fā)現(xiàn)他們很難去利用世界上最快的計算機(jī)們不斷提升的性能。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：德國公司不幸的商業(yè)

Business 商業(yè)報道

German companies 德國公司

An unhappy business 不幸的商業(yè)

The new government's reforms worry German bosses 新政府改革使德國企業(yè)的老板們擔(dān)心不已

FOR German businesses, the elections were bad enough.對于德國的商業(yè)來說，這次的選舉真的糟糕透了。

In September voters denied the business-friendly, small-government Free Democrats the 5% of the vote required to stay both in parliament and in the centre-right coalition government.九月份投票者拒絕了對商業(yè)友好、小政府型的需要5%投票繼續(xù)在過會和右翼聯(lián)盟中待下去的自由民主黨員們。

The election result has led to a grand coalition between Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, its Bavarian sister-party, the Christian Social Union, and the leftish Social Democrats.這個選舉結(jié)果引發(fā)了默克爾的基督民主聯(lián)盟及它的巴伐利亞姐妹黨，基督社會聯(lián)盟和左傾的社會民主黨的大聯(lián)盟。

Though the SPD finished well behind the CDU-CSU, their coalition agreement, signed at the end of November, looks to many like a wishlist for the left.盡管跟社會民主黨的聯(lián)合結(jié)束遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)在CDU-CSU后面，他們的聯(lián)合協(xié)議，11月末尾簽字，看上去更像一個左派的愿望單。

Business and financial leaders are barely bothering to conceal their disappointment at a new national minimum wage, increased pension payments, lower retirement ages for some workers and new pension entitlements for some stay-at-home mothers.商業(yè)和金融領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者們幾乎不費(fèi)勁去隱藏他們對新的全國最低工資、增加了的退休金、對某些工人更低的退休年齡和對一些在家母親生活津貼權(quán)益的失望之情。

The head of the Federation of German Industry, Ulrich Grillo, called it a wasted chance that would submit the German economy to new stress tests.德國工業(yè)聯(lián)合會首領(lǐng)，Ulrich Grillo，稱之為可能會導(dǎo)致德國經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨一個新的嚴(yán)峻考驗的機(jī)會浪費(fèi)。

The Cologne Institute for Economic Research has compared the agreement to a cheque without the funds to cover it.科隆經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所將這個協(xié)議比作為一個沒有資金擔(dān)保的支票。

Company bosses are more circumspect than leaders of industry bodies about criticising Mrs Merkel publicly.But they too are wary.公司老板們比工業(yè)團(tuán)體領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們在公開批評默克爾女士上更加的謹(jǐn)慎。但是他們太小心翼翼了。

One German chief executive complains that the chancellor ignored structural reform when she had a business-friendly partner in the Free Democrats, and frets that she can hardly be expected to find new courage with the SPD.一個德國首席執(zhí)行官抱怨道當(dāng)她在自由民主黨人中有一個對商業(yè)友好的伙伴，總理可能會忽略結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，并且他擔(dān)心道可能很難期待她在SPD的伴隨下找到新的勇氣。

A lobbyist for another big company says that with the Free Democrats you didn't need an interpreter to explain industry's concerns to the government, but now he fears he will.另一家大公司的一個游說者說道有德國自由民主黨人的話你不需要一個翻譯者去解釋政府的工業(yè)關(guān)注點(diǎn)，但是現(xiàn)在他擔(dān)心他需要了。

He grumbles that Mrs Merkel understands the importance of a free economy but does not actually understand what it means.他抱怨道默克爾女士明白一個自由經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要性但是她可能并未真正懂它的含義。

He even praises Gerhard Schr?der, Mrs Merkel's predecessor and a Social Democrat.他甚至贊賞格哈德施羅德，默克爾女士的前任和一個社會民主黨人。

Mr Schrder would listen, ask questions, and then say I can do this;I can't do that.施羅德會聽、問問題然后接著說我可以做這個；我不能做那個。

Mrs Merkel does listen carefully—but then keeps her own counsel.默克爾女士確實(shí)聽得很認(rèn)真——但是接著保持她自己的想法。

The CDU-CSU has kept one promise: the coalition treaty pledges not to raise taxes, which the parties of the left all favour.CDU-CSU聯(lián)盟保證一個承諾：聯(lián)盟條約保證稅收不增加，這也是左派全都支持的。

Growth-friendly spending, such as on infrastructure and research, will increase.對增長有利的政府花銷，如基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和研究，會增長。

But Deutsche Bank estimates that social spending will rise by three times as much.但是荷蘭銀行估計社會花費(fèi)會增長三倍之多。

Businesses are far less happy about changes that will affect the labour market.商業(yè)會更不樂于見到會影響勞動力市場的變化。

Germany's best-performing, export-oriented companies will be little affected by the minimum wage, as they employ few low-skilled workers.德國業(yè)績做的最好的，出口導(dǎo)向的公司幾乎不會被最低工資影響，由于他們雇傭很少的技術(shù)不高的工人。

But the ability to employ workers on short-term contracts will be curtailed.但是他們用短期合同雇傭工人的能力被剝奪了。

Some firms have been criticised for abusing such methods as a way of keeping workers from benefits that full-time employees would receive.一些公司曾經(jīng)批評濫用這些方法作為一種剝奪工人們享有全職雇員能夠享受到利益的方式。

But now a tool that has made the labour market more flexible, and helped to bring unemployment down, will be made harder to use.但是現(xiàn)在一個工具，可以使勞動力市場更加的靈活并且?guī)椭档褪I(yè)率，會更難使用。

Energy policy is a particularly sore point.能源政策更是一個痛處。

Germany's renewable-energy law has boosted green sources through guaranteed high prices for renewable power, preferred access for renewables to the grid and easier financing, from a tax on electricity bills.德國的可再生能源法通過保證可再生能源的高價、對可再生能源管道網(wǎng)絡(luò)更優(yōu)先的許可和更容易的來自電力稅的融資來促進(jìn)綠色來源。

German industrial electricity prices are among the highest in Europe.德國工業(yè)用電價格屬于歐洲最高行列。

Power-hungry industries get partial relief from the tax that finances renewable subsidies;but they complain nonetheless, of a lack of long-term clarity in energy policy.能源密集型工業(yè)通過提供可再生能源補(bǔ)貼稅減輕部分負(fù)擔(dān)；雖然如此但是他們?nèi)匀槐г鼓茉凑呷狈﹂L期確定性。

Firms are voting with their euros.公司們用他們的歐元投票。

The value of fixed capital in energy-intensive industries has declined over the past decade.在能源密集產(chǎn)業(yè)的固定資本價值在過去十年下降了。

As companies' kit is wearing out, they are simply not replacing it, or investing abroad.由于公司的設(shè)備磨損了，他們僅僅是不更換它，或者投資國外。

The coalition treaty speaks of an energy policy triangle of sustainability, supply security and affordability, but fills in little detail about how the government can achieve all three competing goals.這個聯(lián)盟條約提起一個集持續(xù)性、安全保證和可支付的能源政策三角，但是沒有透露任何關(guān)于政府如何實(shí)現(xiàn)所有三個具有競爭力目標(biāo)的細(xì)節(jié)。

The government has set a deadline of April 2014 to publish a fundamental reform of the renewable-energy law, which it hopes to pass by summer.政府設(shè)定了2014年4月一個最后期限去公布可再生能源法基礎(chǔ)性改革，Udo Niehage, the head of government relations at Siemens, a big engineering firm, is not panicking yet.大型工程公司西門子政府關(guān)系部門領(lǐng)導(dǎo)Udo Niehage一點(diǎn)都不驚慌失措。

He is certain that the coalition understands the worries of German businesses, and praises Ms Merkel's toughness and cleverness.他很肯定聯(lián)盟很明白德國商業(yè)的擔(dān)憂，并且贊賞默克爾的堅韌和聰明。

She is certainly good at wrong-footing political opponents, and so it is possible that the coalition deal is an unreliable guide to what the new government will actually do.她肯定很擅長使政治對手手忙腳亂，所以可能聯(lián)盟處理方式是一個對新政府實(shí)際上會做什么不可靠的指引。

But the lack of certainty about future plans is the loudest complaint about the chancellor coming from businesses.但是未來計劃缺乏確定性是來自商業(yè)關(guān)于總理最大的抱怨。

Trusting in her cleverness is not enough.相信她的聰明是不夠的。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：德國武器公司不和武器說再見

Business 商業(yè)報道

German weapons firms 德國武器公司

No farewell to arms 不和武器說再見

Political pressure and bribery allegations are unlikely to hurt Germany's exporters of military equipment.看起來政治壓力和受賄指控都不會影響德國的軍事裝備出口公司。

SINCE the second world war, Germany has rarely sent soldiers to combat zones.自二戰(zhàn)以來，德國幾乎不曾向戰(zhàn)爭地區(qū)派兵。

But it exports a lot of weapons: more than Britain, France or any other country besides America and Russia.然而它卻出口了大量武器：超過英國、法國以及除美國、俄羅斯之外的所有其他國家。

Some German makers of military gear are part of civilian industrial giants, such as Airbus Group, and ThyssenKrupp, a steelmaker.德國的武器制造商中有些隸屬于私有的工業(yè)巨頭，比如空客集團(tuán)，還有鋼鐵制造商蒂森克虜伯集團(tuán)。

But the biggest German company known mainly for weapons, Rheinmetall, is just 26th in the world league of arms-exporting firms.然而，即使是德國著名的以武器業(yè)務(wù)為主的公司中最大的萊茵金屬公司，在世界武器出口公司中也僅僅排在26位。

And Krauss Maffei Wegmann, which makes the Leopard 2 tank, is 54th.而制造出豹2坦克的Krauss Maffei Wegmann則位居54位。

Germans are, in general, proud of their export prowess.總的來說，德國對自己的出口實(shí)力感到驕傲。

But although foreign sales of weaponry bring in almost 1 billion a year, they are a delicate subject, and lately beset by bad press.但是盡管武器外貿(mào)帶來了將近10億歐元一年的利潤，這是一項非常微妙的行業(yè)，并且近日承受的巨大壓力。

Several German firms are accused of bribery in Greece.數(shù)家德國公司被指控在希臘行賄。

A former defence official there has said that of 8m in bribes he took, 3.2m came from German firms, including Wegmann and Rheinmetall.希臘一位前國防部官員曾說，在他被行賄的800萬歐元中有320萬來自于德國公司，其中包括Wegman和萊茵金屬公司。

On January 3rd KMW's alleged middleman was detained after a court hearing.在1月3日，一位宣稱的KMW中間人在庭審后被拘留。

The firm itself denies any bribery.該公司自己否認(rèn)有行賄行為。

Atlas, a maker of naval weapons owned jointly by Airbus and ThyssenKrupp, is under fire too.空客集團(tuán)和蒂森克虜伯共有的海軍武器制造商Atlas也正受到打擊。

A former representative in Athens has reportedly admitted to bribery;the company says it is investigating the matter.一位前雅典代表在報道中承認(rèn)行賄；該公司則表示其正在進(jìn)行調(diào)查。

On another front, the industry faces criticism over the countries it sells to—most recently over a deal to sell Leopard 2s to Saudi Arabia.另一方面，該產(chǎn)業(yè)因其售賣武器的對象而受到批評—最近是因為向沙特阿拉伯賣出豹2。

Arms sales to anywhere other than NATO and NATO-equivalent countries are in principle forbidden.向北約以及北約等同國家以外的國家和地區(qū)銷售武器從原則上說是禁止的。

But the Federal Security Council, headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel, can approve exceptions when foreign policy dictates, as long as they do not harm human rights.但是由總理安吉拉默克爾領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的聯(lián)邦安全局可以在外交政策需要時批準(zhǔn)一些特殊情況，只要他們對于人權(quán)沒有損害。

Peace campaigners fear that the exceptions are becoming less exceptional.和平活動者們擔(dān)心這些些特殊情況正變得越來越不特殊。

NATO countries' budgets are being squeezed, so Germany's armsmakers are looking farther abroad.北約國家正緊縮財政，因而德國武器制造商們只能將目光轉(zhuǎn)向了遠(yuǎn)方的國家。

Rheinmetall, for example, has a target of 50% of exports outside Europe by 2015.比如，萊茵金屬基團(tuán)計劃在2015年前將歐洲以外地區(qū)的出口比重提高到50%。

Asia is a growing target: Singapore recently signed a 1.6 billion deal for ThyssenKrupp submarines.亞洲是一個快速成長的目標(biāo)：新加坡最近簽署了一份價值16億歐元的合同用于購買蒂森克虜伯潛艇。

German small arms are also popular.Heckler & Koch's G3 rifle is the world's most popular after the Russian AK-47.德國的小型武器同樣很受歡迎。赫克勒-科赫G3步槍的受歡迎程度僅次于俄國的AK47。

Germany was a leader in pushing the UN to restrict the flow of small arms to war-torn countries.德國是推動聯(lián)合國限制對戰(zhàn)爭頻繁地區(qū)的小型武器出售的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者之一。

But such weapons leak across borders nonetheless.盡管如此，此類武器依然會進(jìn)入這些地區(qū)。

This is why Helmut Schmidt, a former chancellor, in December urged Germany to restrict arms exports, calling gun deaths a slow-motion Hiroshima and Nagasaki.這也是為何前總理赫爾穆特施密特在12月督促德國限制武器出口，他稱槍支引發(fā)死亡如同慢性的廣島和長

崎原子彈爆炸。

His fellow Social Democrat, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, promised to restrict sales if his party made it into government after last September's elections.他的社會民主黨同僚，弗蘭克沃爾特施泰因邁爾曾承諾如果去年9月選舉后其黨派成功執(zhí)政，就會限制武器出口。

It did: Mr Steinmeier is now foreign minister, and sits on the Federal Security Council.這一條件已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)：施泰因邁爾現(xiàn)在是外交部長，并任職于聯(lián)邦安全委員會。

But Germany's arms exports are probably in little danger, since they have the same reputation for reliability as its cars and other industrial goods.但是德國的武器出口看似并無危險，因為它的武器產(chǎn)品在可靠性方面有著和汽車及其他工業(yè)產(chǎn)品一樣的好名聲。

Even Pieter Wezeman of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a critic of weapons sales, compares a Heckler & Koch gun to a high-quality Leica camera.甚至斯特哥爾摩和平研究所的Pieter Wezeman，一位武器銷售的批評者，也將赫克勒-科赫槍支比作質(zhì)量優(yōu)異的徠卡相機(jī)。

Though German soldiers mostly stay clear of combat zones, German weapons are battle-tested;Leopard tanks in the former Yugoslavia and Afghanistan, for example.雖然德國士兵不曾踏足戰(zhàn)爭區(qū)域，德國的武器可是經(jīng)過實(shí)戰(zhàn)檢驗的；豹型坦克就曾現(xiàn)身前南斯拉夫和阿富汗。

Moreover, there are ways to lessen the controversy of selling things used to wage war.此外，還有許多方法來減少戰(zhàn)爭武器銷售的爭議性。

For example, making guns for a fighter jet assembled elsewhere is less visible than selling a German-made tank.比如，為在其他地區(qū)組裝的戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)制造槍支同直接賣出德國制造的坦克相比要不顯眼許多。

Military transport, logistics, surveillance and protective equipment together account for five times as much of German defence firms' output as weapons and ammunition—and are less likely to be blamed for civilian casualties.軍事運(yùn)輸設(shè)備、后勤物資、監(jiān)視和防護(hù)設(shè)備總計是德國國防公司武器和軍火出口額的5倍，而且這些生意不會受到引發(fā)平民死亡的譴責(zé)。

Stephan Boehm, an analyst at Commerzbank, sees such non-lethal materiel as a bright spot for German exporters.德國商業(yè)銀行的分析師Stephan Boehm將這些非致密材料看做是德國出口的閃光點(diǎn)。

The flagging fortunes of Rheinmetall, in particular, should be restored by strong sales of the armoured transporters it produces in a joint venture with MAN, a lorry-maker.需要指出的是，萊茵金屬公司的巨大財富中不少就源自于它和貨車制造商MAN聯(lián)合制造的裝甲運(yùn)輸車輛的良好銷量業(yè)績。

Critics say the government is too willing to let arms firms export to dodgy regimes.不少批評認(rèn)為政府太想要將武器公司出口到過于冒險的區(qū)域。

The Federation of German Security & Defence Industries argues that strong exports are crucial to spread the development costs of the equipment Germany needs to defend itself.德國安全和國防工業(yè)聯(lián)合會爭辯說繁榮的武器出口對于分擔(dān)德國發(fā)展國防設(shè)備的花費(fèi)至關(guān)重要。

This would be less of a problem, the lobby group admits, if Europe's fragmented defence industry were consolidated;it says the government should not have vetoed a proposal last year to merge EADS with BAE Systems of Britain.游說者們也承認(rèn)，如果歐洲散亂的國防工業(yè)能得到統(tǒng)一的話，這個問題就會小很多；他們還提到，政府不應(yīng)在去年否決EADS和英國的BAE System合并的提議。

Weapons account for less than 1% of Germany's exports.武器出口在德國總出口中所占比重不足1%。

But it is a 1% that it, like other countries, is loth to give up.但是如同其他國家一樣，德國無法割舍這1%。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：電動汽車充電進(jìn)入美國

Business 商業(yè)報道

Electric cars 電動汽車

Charging into America 充電進(jìn)入美國

Chinese firms are keen on America's battery-vehicle market 中國公司致力于美國電動車公司市場

TESLA, an American electric-car manufacturer, is the darling of investors and the most visible success in a business more notable for its failures.美國電動車制造商TESLA是投資者們的寵兒，相比較該行業(yè)的失敗之處，它也是最顯著的成功。

The praise it has attracted is encouraging Chinese firms to try to enter the American market.它所贏得的贊賞激勵中國公司試圖進(jìn)入美國市場。

A Hong Kong company and a mainland firm are battling for control of Fisker, a failed maker of

hybrid-electric cars based in California;a court hearing due on January 10th will consider creditors' calls for an open auction.一家香港公司和大陸公司正在為Fisker的管理控制權(quán)而爭奪不休。Fisker是加利福尼亞一家倒閉的混合動力汽車制造商。1月10日的庭審將考慮債權(quán)人所要求的公開拍賣。

And BYD, another Chinese mainland firm, said this week it would start selling its own electric cars in America next year.另一家中國公司BYD本周表示明年起將在美國出售自己的電動車。

In 2009, when America's Department of Energy agreed to give Fisker a big green energy loan to start production of its sleek Karma sports car, it looked like posing a serious threat to Tesla.2009年，美國能源部門同意給予Fisker一筆巨大的綠色能源貸款生產(chǎn)其Karma跑車，這對于Tesla似乎是一種嚴(yán)重的威脅。

But Fisker was brought down by quality problems, poor management and the financial difficulties of A123, its battery supplier.但是Fisker卻因為質(zhì)量問題、糟糕的管理、A123的財政問題及其電池供應(yīng)商的問題倒閉了。

Production of the Karma ceased in late 2012 and, last November, Fisker followed A123 into bankruptcy.Karma跑車在2012年底停產(chǎn)了，去年11月，F(xiàn)isker繼A123之后破產(chǎn)。

Hybrid Tech Holdings, controlled by Richard Li—a son of Li Ka-shing, Hong Kong's richest tycoon—bought the DOE's loan to Fisker at a big discount and is now seeking to use its influence as a creditor to win control of the collapsed firm.香港首富李嘉誠的兒子李澤愷的混合動力科技股份有限公司以極其優(yōu)惠的價格支付了美國能源部門給Fisker的貸款，現(xiàn)在他正利用自己債權(quán)人的身份影響尋覓機(jī)會贏得該倒閉公司的控制權(quán)。

Fisker's managers support Mr Li's bid.Fisker的經(jīng)理支持李澤愷的投標(biāo)。

But many of the company's unsecured creditors prefer the rival takeover proposal, from Wanxiang, a giant Chinese maker of car parts which aspires to go big into electric cars.但是許多該公司的無擔(dān)保債權(quán)人更偏向于其競爭對手，另一家打算強(qiáng)勢打入電動車市場的汽車部件制造大亨萬向集團(tuán)來接管。

It has already bought A123 and plans to revive production of the Karma, assembling it in America rather than, as before, in Finland.該公司已經(jīng)收購了A123并打算重新生產(chǎn)Karma跑車，這次打算在美國裝配，而不是之前的芬蘭。

For all the excitement about Tesla, battery cars have in general been selling like pork pies at a vegetarians' convention.所有關(guān)于Tesla的興奮，電動車普遍被看作素食者公約買賣的豬肉派。

Yet this is deterring neither Fisker's rival bidders nor BYD, which has Warren Buffett as a shareholder.然而這既沒有阻斷Fisker的競爭投標(biāo)人也沒有讓W(xué)arren Buffett的股東BYD止步。

BYD has already persuaded Los Angeles to accept a handful of its expensive electric buses, but getting motorists to buy pricey battery cars from a firm they have not heard of will be quite a challenge.BYD已經(jīng)說服洛杉磯購買其少量的昂貴電動公交車。但是要讓司機(jī)們購買他們從未耳聞的昂貴的電動車似乎很困難。

Neither BYD nor any other Chinese firm has yet produced an electric car of anything like the quality of Tesla's Model S, which motoring pundits have showered with plaudits.無論是BYD還是中國任何一家其他公司能制造出與Tesla S 型電動車質(zhì)量相仿的電動車，該電動車贏得許多汽車專家的喝彩。

Even in China, where big subsidies and other inducements are on offer, buyers have spurned their clunkers.即使在中國這樣有著大型津貼和其他誘因供應(yīng)的地方，買家也會摒棄其廢舊的汽車。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：發(fā)射飛機(jī)，讓電磁感應(yīng)來驗證

Science and technology 科學(xué)技術(shù)

Launching aircraft 發(fā)射飛機(jī)

Proof by induction 讓電磁感應(yīng)來驗證

In the future, airliners could be catapulted into the sky by electric motors 將來，會用電動機(jī)將客機(jī)彈射到天空中

READERS of a certain age may remember Fireball XL5, a children's television programme devised by Gerry Anderson about a spacecraft of that name.某個年齡段的讀者可能還記得《雷霆機(jī)》這個兒童電視節(jié)目，這個節(jié)目是由格里安德森制作的，講的是一艘叫做雷霆機(jī)的宇宙飛船的故事。

Instead of taking off vertically, as real spacecraft do, Fireball XL5 sat on a rocket-propelled trolley that accelerated it horizontally to launch speed.與現(xiàn)實(shí)中的宇宙飛船垂直起飛不同，雷霆機(jī)是架在一個由火箭推動的滑車上，水平加速到發(fā)射速度。

And that, in effect, is what engineers at Airbus, Europe's largest civil-aviation company, are

proposing in their latest bout of blue-sky thinking.實(shí)際上，這是空中客車公司的工程師們在其最近一次天馬行空的想法中提出的建議。

Apart from the fact that the trolley would be powered by linear-induction motors rather than rockets, they are suggesting that the fantasy of 1962 might become the reality of 2050.滑車由線性感應(yīng)電動機(jī)提供動力，而非火箭，除此之外，他們認(rèn)為1962年的幻想會在2050年成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。

Mindful that many passengers are already nervous about the whole process of getting a plane airborne, the engineers prefer to call their proposal Eco-climb.考慮到飛機(jī)離開地面的整個過程中已經(jīng)夠讓許多乘客緊張了，工程師更喜歡將他們的提議稱為環(huán)保型起飛。

But the idea is straight out of Fireball.但這一想法是直接來自于雷霆機(jī)的。

The aircraft to be launched would sit on a platform that ran along a track where the runway would otherwise be.待發(fā)射的飛機(jī)會架在一個沿軌道滑行的平臺上，而這軌道可說是跑道的另一種形式。

The platform would accelerate to take-off speed, at which point the plane would lift into the air powered by its own engines.平臺會加速到起飛速度，到達(dá)這一速度點(diǎn)后，飛機(jī)便可以通過自己的引擎升上天空。

Taking off in this way would both save fuel and make life more pleasant for those who live near airports.以這種方式起飛既可以節(jié)約燃料，又能夠讓住在機(jī)場附近的人過的更舒心些。

Aircraft engines are optimised for level flight at cruising speed in the stratosphere.飛機(jī)引擎最適合在平流層以巡航速度水平飛行。

Using them to accelerate a plane on the ground wastes a lot of fuel.在地面上用它們?yōu)轱w機(jī)加速會浪費(fèi)很多燃料。

An induction-motor-powered platform, by contrast, would be optimised for the job at hand.相比之下，由感應(yīng)電動機(jī)提供動力的平臺最適合手頭的這個工作，It could launch the plane at higher speed, letting it climb faster.它能以更快的速度發(fā)射飛機(jī)，讓飛機(jī)爬升更快，That would save fuel, too.還能節(jié)約燃料，It would also mean fewer people on the ground suffered aircraft noise.還意味著地面上要經(jīng)受飛機(jī)噪音的人更少了。

And it could do all this from a track that was a third shorter than a conventional runway.所有這些在一條比傳統(tǒng)跑道短三分之一的軌道上即可完成。

Altogether, according to Airbus's back-of-the-envelope calculations, Eco-climb would reduce fuel consumption by 3% on a typical 900km flight, even with existing aircraft designs.總而言之，很據(jù)空中客車的粗略計算，按一次典型的900公里的飛行算，即使按照現(xiàn)在的飛機(jī)設(shè)計，環(huán)保型起飛也能將其油耗減少3%。

But it would also allow for the design of lighter aircraft, with smaller engines, which would cut fuel consumption, noise and emissions further.而且它還為設(shè)計引擎更小，重量更輕的飛機(jī)留下了空間，可以進(jìn)一步降低油耗，噪聲及排放。

Nor is the idea complete fantasy.General Atomics, an American military contractor, has already built and tested a linear-induction-motor-based system of this sort at an airbase at Lakehurst, New Jersey.這個想法并不完全是幻想。通用原子公司是一家美軍的承包商，其已經(jīng)在一座位于新澤西州萊克赫斯特的空軍基地建造了一個這類基于線性感應(yīng)電動機(jī)的系統(tǒng)，并進(jìn)行了測試。

The General Atomics system is now being scaled up to be fitted on a new generation of aircraft carriers for the American navy.目前通用原子正在對該系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行放大，以便能裝備到美國海軍的新一代航空母艦上。

A launcher powered by a linear-induction motor has several advantages over the steam-driven catapults used on existing aircraft carriers, according to General Atomics.據(jù)通用原子公司稱，與現(xiàn)在航空母艦上使用的蒸汽動力彈射器相比，由線性感應(yīng)電動機(jī)提供動力的發(fā)射臺有多個優(yōu)點(diǎn)。

Whereas a steam catapult lets rip with a constant force, the speed and power of a linear motor can be controlled to provide smooth acceleration.恒定的力使蒸汽彈射器難以控制;而線性電動機(jī)的速度和力量都可以控制，可帶來平緩的加速，That extends the life of an aircraft by subjecting it to less stress.因為承受的壓力更小，所以能夠延長飛機(jī)的壽命，It also makes for a more comfortable take off.并且能讓起飛時更舒服一些。

And the launch shuttle can brake quickly once the plane has lifted off by reversing the current running through the motor.飛機(jī)一旦起飛，通過反轉(zhuǎn)電動機(jī)中的電流，發(fā)射裝置能夠快速制動，然后返回原位準(zhǔn)備下一次發(fā)射。

What works in a military context might not, of course, be appropriate for civil aviation—one reason why nobody has considered equipping airports with steam catapults.當(dāng)然，在軍事中使用的技術(shù)不一定適合民用航空，這也是為什么沒人會考慮在機(jī)場配備蒸汽彈射器的一個原因。

But the smooth operation of a linear motor means the take-off force could be kept within the 2.5g typically felt in a modern airliner dashing along a runway.但是線性電動機(jī)的平緩運(yùn)行意味著起飛的力會在2.5倍重力加速度之內(nèi)，與一架現(xiàn)代的客機(jī)沿著跑道加速時的感覺一樣。

Passengers need not be subjected to Top Gun levels of acceleration.乘客們不需要去承受《壯志凌云》那種級別的加速度。

It might be possible to use linear motors for landings, too.將線性電動機(jī)用于著陸也是有可能的。

Carrier-style arrester wires would cause too much damage and would hardly be comfortable for passengers.航母式的攔截索會是飛機(jī)產(chǎn)生很多損傷，而且乘客也不會舒服。

But if an incoming aircraft landed on a moving platform equipped with a linear motor, the current in the motor could then be reversed to slow it down.但如果一架準(zhǔn)備降落的飛機(jī)在一個裝有線性電動機(jī)的移動平臺上著陸，電動機(jī)中的電流會反轉(zhuǎn)，使飛機(jī)減速。

That might mean planes could do without landing gear, saving still more weight.Even Mr Anderson didn't think of that one.這或許意味著飛機(jī)沒有起落架也行，能讓飛機(jī)再輕一些。

Fireball XL5 landed vertically, on retro-rockets.安德森先生都沒有想到這種方法，雷霆機(jī)是靠制動火箭垂直著陸的。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：海豹如何享用它的午餐

Science and technology 科學(xué)技術(shù)

How leopard seals lunch 海豹如何享用它的午餐

Suck, swish, gulp 吸，吮，咽

Eating big and little 大小通吃

JUST about every place on the planet has a predator at the top of the food web.地球上每個地方都有一個處于食物網(wǎng)頂端的捕食者。

The African savannahs have the lion, the jungles of Asia the tiger and the arctic tundra the polar bear.比如非洲大草原上的獅子，亞洲叢林里的老虎以及北極凍原上的北極熊。

In the Antarctic it is the leopard seals who dominate as voracious hunters of penguins and other seal species.而南極的霸主則是那些貪婪地捕食著企鵝和其他海豹種群的豹海豹。

But a new study examining their feeding habits led by David Hocking of Monash University in Australia, has revealed something unusual:

但是一個驗證豹海豹進(jìn)食習(xí)慣的新研究顯示了一些不尋常的東西：

how leopard seals use an efficient filter-feeding system to eat near the bottom of the food chain too.那就是豹海豹如何利用一個高效的食物過濾系統(tǒng)同時享用靠近食物鏈底端的生物。來自澳大利亞蒙納什大學(xué)的大衛(wèi)霍金是此項研究的負(fù)責(zé)人。

Researchers have long known that a sizeable portion of the seals’ diet is made up of krill.研究者們很早就知道在豹海豹的食譜中一大部分是由磷蝦組成。

But exactly how they consume these tiny crustaceans has been a mystery as the seals’ mouths have large sharp teeth that seemed utterly inappropriate for capturing them.但是由于豹海豹嘴里的尖牙似乎完全不適合捕捉這些磷蝦，從而它們是如何享用這些微小的甲殼類生物便成了一個迷。

Some researchers have theorised that the seals might suck water into their mouths and swish it past their closed teeth to capture krill.一些研究者們從理論角度分析豹海豹也許可以通過先入吸海水再閉緊牙齒將海水吐出的篩選法捕捉磷蝦。

But such behaviour depends upon leopard seals being able to suck up food from water, a specialised feeding behaviour that is rarely seen in top predators.但是完成這些動作需要豹海豹具備從海水中吸吮食物的能力，而這種特定的進(jìn)食行為在位于食物鏈頂端的捕食者身上并不常見。

Keen to explore this, Mr Hocking turned his attention towards Casey and Sabine, two leopard seals at the Taronga Zoo in Sydney.熱衷于探索這一問題的霍金先生將注意力轉(zhuǎn)向了凱西和薩賓這兩只悉尼塔龍加動物園的豹海豹身上。

He and his colleagues designed a clear plastic box with thin tubes in which fish could be placed.他和同事們設(shè)計了一種透明的塑料盒子，里面安裝了可以盛放魚的淺的管道。

The seals could not get at them with their teeth, and instead sucked the fish right out of the tubes.豹海豹無法用它的牙齒來取食這些魚，而是從管道中把它們吸出來。

Moments later, the team saw clouds of murky water and bubbles being expelled from the sides of the seals’ mouths.過了一會，研究小組發(fā)現(xiàn)一團(tuán)一團(tuán)的渾濁的水體和泡沫從豹海豹的嘴里噴出。

This, they realised, was a filter-feeding system in action.研究者們意識到，這表示一套進(jìn)食過濾系統(tǒng)正在工作。

In examining the wear on the teeth of skulls from wild leopard seals, Mr Hocking was able to work out which teeth the seals were using to filter out tiny prey.在檢查野生豹海豹顱骨上牙齒的磨損度時，霍金先生弄明白了豹海豹是用哪些牙齒來過濾出微小獵物的。

He found extensive abrasions on canines and incisors, the sharp teeth at the front of their mouths.他發(fā)現(xiàn)位于口腔前端的那些鋒利的犬齒和門齒上存在大面積磨損的情況。

This, Mr Hocking points out in Polar Biology, indicates that these teeth are used to chomp penguins and other seals.霍金先生在《極地生物》雜志上指出，這表明豹海豹利用這些牙齒來撕咬企鵝和其他海豹。

But since there is no such wear on the sharp and delicate postcanines, he believes that although these triangular rear teeth look fierce, when closed they form a sieve that is the perfect size for filtering.但是，由于在鋒利而精致的犬齒后齒上并沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)磨損的情況，他認(rèn)為盡管這些三角形的后槽牙看上去非常兇狠，但是當(dāng)咬合時，它們可以充當(dāng)一個對于過濾事物來說其尺寸可謂完美的篩子。

Ideal dentistry, if you like, for a mixed diet.如果你樂意，這是一套進(jìn)行混合膳食的理想的牙科學(xué)。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：集資科技積跬步致千里

Science and technology 科學(xué)技術(shù)

Crowdfunding science 集資科技

Many a mickle makes a muckle 積跬步致千里

These days, anyone can be a scientific philanthropist 眼下人人都是科技慈善家

NECESSITY, so the proverb has it, is the mother of invention.有句諺語說得好：沒有需求，就沒有發(fā)明。And science is nothing if not inventive.科技失去了創(chuàng)新，就變得一文不值了。

So, as conventional sources of money get harder to tap, some of science's more creative minds are turning elsewhere.所以，當(dāng)無法輕易獲得傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)支持時，一些有創(chuàng)造力的科研人員便開始尋求新的資金來源。

Philanthropic sponsorship of science, particularly in the form of expensive pieces of kit such as large telescopes, or sponsorship for expeditions to far-off places, has been around for centuries.科技慈善資助已有幾個世紀(jì)的歷史，資助形式多為捐贈大型光學(xué)望遠(yuǎn)鏡之類的昂貴儀器，或者是為偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)的探險提供贊助。

But the internet now permits what might be thought of as microphilanthropy.不過在網(wǎng)絡(luò)的幫助下，如今微慈善也成為可能。

Through a technique called crowdfunding, in which members of the public donate small sums to projects they like the look of, the possibility of scientific philanthropy has been extended to those of more slender means.基于一種名為眾基金的技術(shù)，公眾可以給他們看重的項目捐贈小額資金，科技慈善事業(yè)已擴(kuò)大到微薄資金來源。

On October 4th, for example, Ethan Perlstein, a pharmacologist at Princeton University, launched a bid on a site called RocketHub to collect 25,000 to study the effect of drugs such as methamphetamine on the brain.例如，普林斯頓大學(xué)的藥理學(xué)家伊桑?浦斯汀，10月4日就在一家名為火箭中心的網(wǎng)站公開招標(biāo)，募集25000美元的資金用于研究甲基苯丙胺等藥物對大腦疾病的療效，He has until November 18th to raise the money.招標(biāo)將截止于11月8日。

Kristina Killgrove, an anthropologist at the University of West Florida, has already raised over 12,000 on RocketHub to examine the DNA of Roman skeletons.克里斯蒂娜科爾戈薇是西佛羅里達(dá)大學(xué)的一名人類學(xué)家，她就通過火箭中心網(wǎng)站募集了12000美元用于自己對羅馬骸骨的DNA檢驗。

And on another crowdfunding site, Petridish, the California Academy of Sciences offered to name any new species of ant discovered during a conservation project in Madagascar after those who donate more than 5,000 to the enterprise.培養(yǎng)皿網(wǎng)是另一個融資網(wǎng)站，加州科學(xué)院就因為通過該網(wǎng)站獲得了5000多美元的項目基金，他們完成了為馬達(dá)加斯加保護(hù)項目中發(fā)現(xiàn)的螞蟻新物種命名的工作。

Although the crowdfunding of science is not raising the sorts of sums sometimes attracted by those with ideas for things like video games, it has already spawned a couple of specialised platforms of its own.盡管科技融資不再是只有類似電子游戲的項目才能拿得到資金，但融資過程還是形成了自己的專業(yè)平臺。Petridish is one.培養(yǎng)皿網(wǎng)就是一例。

Another is called Microryza.Microyza也是一個代表網(wǎng)站。

And academic institutions are starting to follow the lead taken by the CAS.學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)都開始模仿加州科學(xué)院，募集資金。

The University of California, San Francisco, has made a deal with a site called Indiegogo that will allow the university's charitable status to make money donated via Indiegogo tax deductible.加利福尼亞大學(xué)舊金山分校與Indiegogo網(wǎng)站達(dá)成協(xié)議，提高了他們的會員慈善等級，可以使經(jīng)網(wǎng)站募集的資金免稅。

It will launch the first such project later this month.這個月晚些時候?qū)铀麄兊牡谝粋€項目。

Donors can expect no revenue if a crowdfunded science project is successful, of course.捐贈人肯定沒想著融資的科學(xué)項目成功后他們會獲得任何收入。But they can expect to be kept up to date with progress.但他們可以獲悉實(shí)驗的進(jìn)度。

Dr Perlstein has promised to upload all data from his experiments onto a website, for his sponsors to look at.浦斯汀博士就承諾會把實(shí)驗中的所有數(shù)據(jù)上傳到網(wǎng)站，供捐贈人查閱。

And even those who are not immortalised in the myrmicine literature, as the CAS proposed, may still get a warm glow from the feeling that they are making a contribution to the advancement of knowledge in a way which was previously open only to philanthropists with rather fatter wallets.在加州科學(xué)院的項目里，即使這些捐贈人不會因切葉蟻屬文獻(xiàn)而流芳千古，但能讓他們看到自己為知識進(jìn)步做出了貢獻(xiàn)感到欣慰，因為之前，這種方式只屬于那些錢包更鼓的捐贈人。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：節(jié)肢動物學(xué)，情人為食

Science and technology 科學(xué)技術(shù) Arachnology 節(jié)肢動物學(xué)

Having a mate for dinner 情人為食

Male spiders make the supreme sacrifice for their children 雄蛛對后代的無私奉獻(xiàn)

AMONG spiders, the female of the species really is more deadly than the male.蜘蛛家族中,雌蛛致命性比雄蛛高得多。交配后將配偶狼吞虎咽地吃掉，雌蛛因此聲名在外。Lady arachnids have a well-deserved reputation for polishing off their suitors, post copula, in a manner that Hannibal Lecter might have admired.它們的這一行為或許在一定程度上贏得了漢尼拔萊克特的敬仰，But it has never been clear why this happens.然而其原因一直不為人所知。

Some biologists believe it is simply a mixture of female hunger and the availability of a meal that is in no position to run away.一些生物學(xué)家認(rèn)為這僅僅是因為雌蛛餓了，而盤中餐又無力逃脫。

Others suspect that the male is actually sacrificing his life for the good of his genes.一些生物學(xué)家認(rèn)為雄蛛是為他的基因而犧牲的。

In other words, his becoming a meal for his paramour somehow helps the offspring of their union.換句話說，他成為情人的腹中食某種程度上有助于他們共同的后代。

Peng Yu, of Hubei University in China, and his colleagues, decided to try to settle the question.中國湖北大學(xué)的彭宇及其同事決定嘗試解開這一謎題。

The results of their investigation are published this week in Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology.他們的條查結(jié)果刊登在《行為生態(tài)學(xué)與社會生物學(xué)》。

Dr Peng and his team collected almost 400 young wolf spiders, of both sexes, from local fields.彭博士和他的小組在當(dāng)?shù)厥占藥缀?00只狼蛛，They then raised the animals separately until they were sexually mature.再雌雄分開飼養(yǎng)，直到它們性成熟。

Then, one at a time, they introduced the females to a male and watched until one of three things happened:

然后他們每次一只，將雌蛛與雄蛛配對，直到出現(xiàn)以下三者之一的情況發(fā)生：

the male got eaten;the male mated with the female and successfully avoided being eaten;or the male survived for half an hour, but did not mate with the female within that time.雄蛛被吃；雄蛛與雌蛛交配后幸免于難；或者雄蛛存活了半小時，而期間未與雌蛛交配。有時，他們將未交配的雌雄蛛配對；

Sometimes the researchers paired virgin males with virgin females;sometimes they paired virgin males with females that had recently bred.有時他們將未交配的雄蛛與剛繁殖過的雌蛛配對。

And in one crucial set of tests they paired virgin males with virgin females that had been taken off their regular diet of fruit flies a fortnight beforehand, and were thus presumed to be feeling more than a little peckish.在一項關(guān)鍵性實(shí)驗中，他們將未交配的雄蛛與停飼果蠅兩周的雌蛛配對—此時假設(shè)雌蛛處于極度饑餓狀態(tài)。

After doing all this, the team chose 16 females that had mated and then eaten their partners, and ten that had mated but not done so, and followed their reproductive success.配對后，實(shí)驗小組挑選了16只交配后吃掉配偶的雌蛛，10只交配后未吃掉配偶的雌蛛，觀察其繁殖成功的過程。

When these females laid their egg sacs, the researchers picked ten sacs at random from each group and monitored those until the eggs hatched.當(dāng)這些雌蛛產(chǎn)下卵袋時，研究者從每組隨機(jī)挑選了10個卵袋觀察，直到卵孵化。At that point they selected 20 spiderlings from each group for further study.這時，他們從每組挑選10只幼蛛用于后續(xù)研究。

Their first pertinent observation was that, while female wolf spiders did indeed sometimes eat males before breeding with them, that happened only 10% of the time, and did not seem to be more frequent if the female had been starved.他們第一個客觀觀察結(jié)果是，雌狼蛛有時確實(shí)會在交配前吃掉雄狼蛛，這種概率是10%，并且似乎不比雌蛛挨餓后比率高。

Their second observation was that if a male was deemed suitable to mate with, he was never eaten in copula—even though copulation could last as long as an hour and a half.第二個觀察結(jié)果是，如果雄蛛被認(rèn)為適合交配，它們絕不會在交配中被吃—即使交配過程可能長達(dá)一個半小時。

Their third was that, 28% of the time, a male that had mated was indeed eaten afterwards.他們第三個觀察結(jié)果是，有28%的幾率雄蛛會在交配后被吃。

Successful suitors, then, succumbed more often than unsuccessful ones.如此可得出，交配成功的雄蛛被吃的比未成功的多。

The crucial finding, however—which makes sense of all the others—was the success of the spiderlings.然而，幼蛛成活率是關(guān)鍵的發(fā)現(xiàn)—這使得其他發(fā)現(xiàn)都有了意義。

Young born of females that had eaten their partners had a 48% chance of making it through their first month of life.吃掉配偶的雌蛛其后代48%可以活過一個月，Those born of females who had let their partners live, had only a 12% chance of surviving that long.而放生配偶的雌蛛的后代存活相同時間的只有12%。

That is a staggering difference—and certainly, in evolutionary terms, enough to drive self-sacrificial behaviour by males，這個差距是巨大的—當(dāng)然，按照進(jìn)化論原則，足以使雄蛛采取自我犧牲行為。

since a male would have to mate successfully another three times to match the benefit he gains by this one suicidal act.因此，為獲得這一次自殺行為帶來的好處，它之前必須成功交配三次。

The reason a male is almost three times as likely to be eaten if he has mated with the female in question than if he has not is thus probably that he wants to be eaten, for the good of his posterity.討論中，如果與雌蛛交配成功，雄蛛被吃的概率幾乎是未交配成功的雄蛛的三倍，其原因可能是為后代著想，它希望被吃。

Just what it is that a male meal gives, via the female's digestive system, to the hatchling spiders, remains to be determined.通過雌蛛的消化系統(tǒng)，雄蛛給予孵化蜘蛛的是什么？這還有待探索。

Perhaps spider bodies contain some crucial nutrients which are scarcer in other forms of prey.也許蜘蛛體內(nèi)含有其他獵物所缺乏的重要的營養(yǎng)成分。

Whatever the details, though, the general answer to the biologists' question is now clear.不管具體如何，生物學(xué)家們的問題有了大致的答案。

In the case of spiders, fathers really do lay down their lives for their children.對蜘蛛來說，父親們真真是為孩子放棄了他們的生命。

【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】雙語閱讀：精神身體醫(yī)學(xué)，好好反省一下吧

Science and technology 科學(xué)技術(shù)

Psychosomatic medicine 精神身體醫(yī)學(xué)

Think yourself well 好好反省一下吧

You can.But it helps to think well of yourself in the first place 你可以的。只是它會首先幫你好好反省一下自己。

THE link between mind and body is terrain into which many medical researchers, fearing ridicule, dare not tread.大腦與身體之間存在著千絲萬縷的聯(lián)系，但是，因為怕被嘲笑，很多醫(yī)學(xué)研究人員不敢涉足這塊領(lǐng)域。

But perhaps more should do so.但是，可能應(yīng)該有更多人來研究它。

For centuries, doctors have recognised the placebo effect, in which the illusion of treatment, such as pills without an active ingredient, produces real medical benefits.數(shù)個世紀(jì)以來，醫(yī)生們已經(jīng)認(rèn)識到了安慰劑的效力，其實(shí)是一種錯覺治療達(dá)到了真正的藥物效應(yīng)，比如沒有實(shí)際療效的藥丸等。

More recently, respectable research has demonstrated that those who frequently experience positive emotions live longer and healthier lives.最近以來，相當(dāng)受重視的研究表明，那些經(jīng)常以積極的態(tài)度生活的人活得更長久，而且更健康。

They have fewer heart attacks, for example, and fewer colds too.比如，他們幾乎不會有心臟病，而且也很少感冒。

Why this happens, though, is only slowly becoming understood.只是這種現(xiàn)象現(xiàn)在還無法解釋。

What is needed is an experiment that points out specific and measurable ways in which such emotions alter an individual's biology.我們需要的是做一個試驗，指明具體的，可衡量以情緒改變?nèi)梭w生物機(jī)理的方式。

And a study published in Psychological Science, by Barbara Fredrickson and Bethany Kok at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, does precisely that.位于查珀爾希爾的北卡羅萊納州大學(xué)的巴巴拉弗雷德里克松和伯斯尼考克最近進(jìn)行了一項研究，發(fā)表在心理科學(xué)雜志，他們的研究正體現(xiàn)了這點(diǎn)。

Dr Fredrickson and Dr Kok concentrated their attentions on the vagus nerve.弗雷德里克松教授和考克教授集中于研究迷走神經(jīng)。

This nerve starts in the brain and runs, via numerous branches, to several thoracic and abdominal organs including the heart.這種神經(jīng)起始端在大腦，通過眾多的分支與幾大胸部和腹部器官，包括心臟相連。

Among its jobs is to send signals telling that organ to slow down during moments of calm and safety.它的一項職能就是，發(fā)出信號告訴這些器官，在人體處于平靜和安全的時候減緩工作步伐。

How effectively the vagus nerve is working can be tracked by monitoring someone's heart rate as he breathes in and out.你可以通過監(jiān)測一個人呼吸時的心率來有效地追蹤迷走神經(jīng)的工作過程。

Healthy vagal function is reflected in a subtle increase in heart rate while breathing in and a subtle decrease while breathing out.如果迷走神經(jīng)工作正常的話，你可以從人體吸進(jìn)空氣時心率的不明顯增加上看出來，同樣，當(dāng)人體呼出空氣時心率也會有微弱的減少。

The difference yields an index of vagal tone, and the value of this index is known to be connected with health.如果迷走神經(jīng)處于不健康狀態(tài)時，會產(chǎn)生不同的迷走張力指數(shù)。

Low values are, for example, linked to inflammation and heart attacks.眾所周知，這個指數(shù)值與健康密切相關(guān)。比如，指數(shù)值低的話，就可能說明有炎癥，及心臟病了。

What particularly interested Dr Fredrickson and Dr Kok was recent work that showed something else about the vagal-tone index:

特別有趣的是，弗雷德里克松教授和考克教授最近研究也顯示了與迷走神經(jīng)張力指數(shù)有關(guān)的其它東西。

people with high tone are better than those with low at stopping bad feelings getting overblown.在避免讓不良情緒擴(kuò)大方面，指數(shù)高的人這方面的能力明顯優(yōu)于指數(shù)低的人。

They also show more positive emotions in general.這些人平時也會表現(xiàn)出更樂觀積極的情緒。

This may provide the missing link between emotional well-being and physical health.這可能也彌補(bǔ)了在情感福祉與身體健康之間缺失的一環(huán)。

第四篇：《The Economist》《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》中文版2009年04月

American banks 美國銀行Payback time還債贖身

Apr 16th 2009 200年4月16日From The Economist print edition 摘自《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》印刷版

Goldman Sachs and other banks want to pay back bail-out cash.But the banking system is not in the clear yet

高盛投資公司及其它一些銀行希望償還政府救濟(jì)資金。但銀行業(yè)并非已脫離困境。

USING taxpayers’ funds to prop up America’s banking system was a necessary evil.So in many ways it is welcome that some banks now want to repay the money.On April 14th, six months after getting $10 billion from the Treasury, Goldman Sachs sold $5 billion of new shares with that in mind.用納稅人的錢來支持美國的銀行業(yè)本就是一件迫不得已的事。因此從許多方面來說，現(xiàn)在一些銀行希望償還這些錢是受歡迎的。在四月十四號，即從財政部獲取一百億救濟(jì)金六個月之后，高盛投資公司拋售了價值五十億的新股用于還債。

It is easy to see why.Some banks, including Goldman, say that back in October they had enough capital and took part in the bail-out only to show solidarity with the government’s plan.Since then they have been excoriated by Congress and now face restrictions, mainly on pay but also on hiring foreigners, that Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman’s boss, says “l(fā)imit our ability to compete”.Meanwhile banks’ shares have soared on optimism about their profits.Goldman says that repayment is a “duty”.But who wants to rely on livid voters and banker-bashing politicians when private cash is available?

其中緣由顯而易見。一些銀行（包括高盛）稱，早在十月份他們就有充足的資金而參加政府救助計劃只是為了聲援政府救市方案。自那以后他們就一直受到國會非難而如今還要面臨諸多限制。這些限制除薪酬問題外還包括聘用外籍員工方面。正如高盛老板勞埃德.布蘭克費(fèi)恩說，“那將限制我們的競爭力”.同時銀行的股票已出現(xiàn)上漲，他們對利潤收益頗為樂觀。高盛稱還債是“義務(wù)”。想想，當(dāng)有私人資金可以利用時誰還想依靠滿臉慍色的選民和欺壓銀行的政客？

The principles for letting a bank repay bail-out cash are clear.Its capital position must remain strong: capable of at least maintaining its lending book, absorbing shocks, and commanding enough confidence to allow borrowing without state guarantees.It should repay taxpayers by selling new shares or retaining profits.For a bank to boost capital by withdrawing credit or exiting important business lines would be counterproductive.It must have healthy profits and sane risk and pay policies.European banks, such as HSBC, that have got there without state support have rightly been applauded.能讓一家銀行有能力償還救濟(jì)資金的條件很明顯。那便是它的資本狀況務(wù)必尚需雄厚：至少有能力維持放貸、緩解沖擊及有足夠的信心無需國家擔(dān)保獲得借款。銀行務(wù)必通過出售新股或保住盈利來償還納稅人的錢。而如果銀行靠降低信譽(yù)或取消重要業(yè)務(wù)來募集資金的話只會適得其反。銀行務(wù)必要有相當(dāng)?shù)睦麧櫦敖∪娘L(fēng)險和薪資政策。歐洲銀行，如匯豐銀行，就沒向國家尋求支持而被連連稱贊。

Does Goldman pass these tests too? Although it has just reported bumper earnings(see article), their quality was mixed, and relied too much on volatile trading.It has a slug of hard-to-value assets and its borrowing costs have yet to return to normal;it is still using the government’s debt-guarantee scheme.But its regulatory capital ratios are solid, half as strong again as those of America’s ten biggest banks overall.When the Treasury completes its stress tests to evaluate the largest banks soon, Goldman should pass with flying colors.高盛能經(jīng)得起這些考驗嗎？雖然據(jù)最新報道高盛獲得了不錯收益（見全文）,但這些收益的質(zhì)量參差不齊，過多依賴于不穩(wěn)定交易。高盛擁有小部分難估價資產(chǎn)并且它的借款費(fèi)用又回到了原樣；高盛仍沿用政府的債務(wù)擔(dān)保方案。但是它的法定資本比率高，相當(dāng)于美國前十大銀行總體比率的二分之一。一等財政部完成對十大銀行評估的壓力測試，高盛將勝利通過。

No bank is an island 沒有哪家銀行能獨(dú)善其身

Yet the crisis has shown that banks do not exist in isolation.Some say that by letting lenders repay the state, those unable to do so would face runs on their shares and junior debt.This cannot be made the sole consideration—the banking system should not walk at the pace of its weakest members.However there is still

a danger that the American banking system as a whole is nearly insolvent.And if the stress tests are rigorous, they could show that insolvency is indeed some banks’ likely fate: losses may well eat up much of the system’s capital.這次金融危機(jī)讓人們看到銀行不是孤立存在的。有人說如果讓銀行返還政府救濟(jì)金，那些沒能力償還的銀行將得拿它們的股票和順應(yīng)債務(wù)去冒險。但不可孤立地看問題-——銀行業(yè)不能被這個行業(yè)的弱者拖了后腿。然而，作為一個整體而言，美國銀行業(yè)仍有破產(chǎn)的危險。如果壓力測試嚴(yán)格的話，破產(chǎn)的確是某些銀行的可能面臨的命運(yùn)：破產(chǎn)損失將吞掉銀行業(yè)好些資金。

The slim margin for error means confidence could still evaporate, with even good banks dragged down by counterparty risk.The government says banks that fail the stress tests must raise capital within six months(from the state if necessary)and sell toxic assets.The tests must not be fudged.Providing that the six-month deadline is a firm one, forcing Goldman and others to retain their unwanted funds till then seems fair.But that is long enough.Meanwhile, the politicians should stop changing the rules about pay and bonuses.細(xì)微的誤差率也可能意味著信心的消失，因為即使實(shí)力雄厚的銀行都可能被交易對手風(fēng)險拖垮。政府稱，如果銀行未能通過壓力測試，將必須在6個月內(nèi)籌集資金（有必要的話通過國家籌集）和出售不良資產(chǎn)。測試不得摻假。如果6個月期限確定的話，要求高盛及其他銀行保留其空閑資金至那時看起來似乎公平。但是，六個月的時間夠長了。與此同時，政界人士應(yīng)停止對工資和獎金規(guī)定變來變?nèi)ァ?/p>

The dollar as a reserve currency 以美元作為儲備貨幣Handle with care小心應(yīng)對Mar 26th 2009

China suggests an end to the dollar era中國建議結(jié)束美元時代

IN FUTURE, changes to the international financial system are likely to be shaped by Beijing as well as Washington.That is the message of an article by Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank of China.Mr Zhou calls for a radical reform of the international monetary system in which the dollar would be replaced as the main reserve currency by a global currency.It is a delicate issue, however.When Tim Geithner, America’s treasury secretary, discussed the proposal in New York on March 25th, his remarks sent the dollar tumbling before he made clear that, naturally, he thought the greenback should remain the dominant reserve currency.在將來，就像美國一樣，中國很可能會促進(jìn)國際金融體系的變革。這是中國人民銀行行長周小川發(fā)布的一篇文章所隱含的信息。周先生要求徹底改革國際貨幣體系，由一種全球性的貨幣來取代美元成為主要儲備貨幣。當(dāng)然，這是一個很棘手的問題。當(dāng)美國財政部部長蒂姆.蓋特納于3月25日在紐約討論這項提議時，他的講話引發(fā)了美元比價的波動，他很快就澄清，認(rèn)為美元仍然是占主導(dǎo)地位的儲備貨幣。

Mr Zhou’s proposal is China’s way of making clear that it is worried that the Fed’s response to the crisis—printing loads of money—will hurt the dollar and hence the value of China’s huge foreign reserves, of which around two-thirds are in dollars.周先生的建議清楚地以中國方式表明擔(dān)憂，美聯(lián)儲為應(yīng)對危機(jī)而大量印制美元將損及美元的價值，進(jìn)而影響到中國巨額的外匯儲備的價值，這其中近三分之二為美元儲備。

He suggests that the international financial system, which is based on a single currency(he does not actually cite the dollar), has two main flaws.First, the reserve-currency status of the dollar helped to create global imbalances.Surplus countries have little choice but to place most of their spare funds in the reserve currency since it is used to settle trade and has the most liquid bond market.But this allowed America’s borrowing binge and housing bubble to persist for longer than it otherwise would have.Second, the country that issues the reserve currency faces a trade-off between domestic and international stability.Massive money-printing by the Fed to support the economy makes sense from a national perspective, but it may harm the dollar’s value.周先生認(rèn)為基于單一貨幣（他實(shí)際上并沒有提及美元）的國際金融體系，有兩個主要缺陷。第一，作為儲備貨幣地位的美元促成了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的不平衡性。貿(mào)易順差國家別無選擇，只有將大量備用資金投入到儲備貨幣中，用來穩(wěn)定貿(mào)易和擁有最佳流動性的債券市場。但是，這種做法相對其他方式所導(dǎo)致美

國更無節(jié)制的借貸和持續(xù)時間更長的房地產(chǎn)泡沫。第二，儲備貨幣的發(fā)行國面臨權(quán)衡國內(nèi)和國際的穩(wěn)定性的抉擇。從國際角度來說，美國聯(lián)邦政府大規(guī)模印制美元來支持經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展無可厚非，但這種做法很可能會損害到美元的價值。

Mr Zhou suggests that the dollar’s reserve status should be transferred to the SDR(Special Drawing Rights), a synthetic currency created by the IMF, whose value is determined as a weighted average of the dollar, euro, yen and pound.The SDR was created in 1969, during the Bretton Woods fixed exchange-rate system, because of concerns that there was insufficient liquidity to support global economic activity.It was originally intended as a reserve currency, but is now mainly used in the accounts for the IMF’s transactions with member countries.SDRs are allocated to IMF members on the basis of their contribution to the fund.周先生認(rèn)為，美元的儲備地位應(yīng)移交給由國際貨幣基金組織所創(chuàng)立的特別提款權(quán)，其價值是取決于美元、歐元、日元和英鎊的加權(quán)平均值。在1969年，因為擔(dān)心沒有足夠的流動資金來支持全球經(jīng)濟(jì)活動，在制定布雷頓森林固定匯率制度時設(shè)立了特別提款權(quán)。設(shè)立特別提款權(quán)初衷是用來作為儲備貨幣的，但現(xiàn)在主要用于國際貨幣基金組織成員國間的貿(mào)易結(jié)算。特別提款權(quán)對國際貨幣基金組織成員的配額是以成員國對國際貨幣基金組織的貢獻(xiàn)為基礎(chǔ)的。

Mr Zhou’s plan could win support from other emerging economies with large reserves.However, it is unlikely to get off the ground in the near future.It would take years for the SDR to be widely accepted as a means of exchange and a store of value.The total amount of SDRs outstanding is equivalent to only $32 billion, or less than 2% of China’s foreign-exchange reserves, compared with $11 trillion of American Treasury bonds.周先生的計劃可能贏得來自其他擁有巨額外匯儲備的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的支持。然而，中國也不可能在很短的時間就能取得很大的成效。這將需要幾年的時間讓特別提款權(quán)以一種交易和保值的方式被廣泛接受。相比于十一萬億美元的美國國債，特別提款權(quán)未繳總額僅相當(dāng)于三百二十億美元，還不足中國的外匯儲備的百分之二。

There are also big political hurdles.America would resist, because losing its reserve-currency status would raise the cost of financing its budget and current-account deficits.Even Beijing might want to rethink the idea.Mr Zhou praised John Maynard Keynes’s proposal in the 1940s for an international currency, the “Bancor”, based on commodities.But as Mark Williams of Capital Economics says, central to Keynes’s idea was that a tax be imposed on countries running large current-account surpluses, to encourage them to boost domestic demand.該項提議同時也面臨巨大的政治障礙。由于失去儲備貨幣的地位將會提高融資預(yù)算成本和導(dǎo)致經(jīng)常帳戶赤字，美國將會抵制這項提議。就連中方可能也要重新考慮這一想法。周先生稱贊凱恩斯在二十世紀(jì)四十年代所提倡的基于商品定值的國際性貨幣“Bancor”的建議。但資本經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克.威廉姆斯說，凱恩斯的建議的實(shí)質(zhì)是，對那些擁有經(jīng)常賬戶巨大盈余的國家征稅，來鼓勵他們擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需。附加解釋：Bancor：上世紀(jì)四十年代凱恩斯就曾提出采用30種有代表性的商品作為定值基礎(chǔ)建立國際貨幣單位“Bancor”的設(shè)想

Economic indicator經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)Googling the future Google一下未來

Internet search data may be useful for forecasters

網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索數(shù)據(jù)也許可以幫助經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測專家

CLAIMS of clairvoyance, particularly when they come from economists, deserve a sceptical reception.Hal Varian, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley who also happens to be Google’s chief economist, has no such pretensions, but he does believe that data on internet searches can help predict certain kinds of economic statistics before they become available.人們具有預(yù)見能力的這一說，尤其是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)見能力通常都會引起質(zhì)疑。加州大學(xué)伯克利分校的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授，谷歌公司首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Hal Varian表示，他沒有如此的洞察力和預(yù)見力，但他相信在某些經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)公布之前，網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索的數(shù)據(jù)能夠幫助預(yù)測這些數(shù)據(jù)。

In a new paper written with Hyunyoung Choi, a colleague at Google, he argues that fluctuations in the

frequency with which people search for certain words or phrases online can improve the accuracy of the econometric models used to predict, for example, retail-sales figures or house sales.Actual numbers for such things are usually available only with a lag.But Google’s search data are updated every day, so they can in theory capture shifts in consumer behaviour before official numbers are released.Varian和谷歌的另一名同事Hyunyoung Choi最新發(fā)表了一篇論文，他表示對于人們在網(wǎng)上搜索的一些字詞短語，其頻率的變化可以提高經(jīng)濟(jì)計量模型預(yù)測零售銷售或售房數(shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確性。這些確切銷售數(shù)據(jù)通常是要滯后一段時間才能得到。但是谷歌搜索數(shù)據(jù)每天都在更新，因此理論上在官方數(shù)字出爐之前，們就把握住了消費(fèi)者行為的變化。

These data are available through a site called Google Trends, which allows anyone who cares to do so to download an index of the aggregate volume of searches for particular terms or categories.Mr Varian and Mr Choi show that the addition of these search trends to econometric models improves the accuracy of their estimates.人們可以在一個名叫谷歌趨勢的網(wǎng)站上得到這些數(shù)據(jù)，并且可以下載特定條款或物品被搜索總量的指數(shù)。Varian和Choi表示，共同利用這些搜索趨勢和經(jīng)濟(jì)計量模型就能夠提高預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性。

For example, using data on searches for trucks and SUVs to predict the monthly sales of motor vehicles reduces the average error by up to 18% compared with the predictions from a model that did not incorporate the search data.The volume of searches for Hong Kong carried out in countries like America, Britain, Australia and India also seems to predict eventual tourist arrivals to the territory from these countries rather well.比如，與不用搜索數(shù)據(jù)的模型得出的預(yù)測相比，利用貨車和SUV的搜索數(shù)據(jù)來預(yù)測汽車月銷售量會減少高達(dá)18%的平均誤差。在美國，英國，澳大利亞和印度等國進(jìn)行的對香港的搜索似乎也能預(yù)測從這些國家到香港旅行的游客人數(shù)。

How widely could this idea be applied? For some things, like retail sales, the categories into which Google classifies its search-trend data correspond closely to what people may want to predict, such as the sales of a particular brand of car(see chart).For others, like sales of houses, things are less clear.It appears that searches for estate agents work better than those for home financing.But anything that makes the crystal ball less cloudy is welcome.這一方法的應(yīng)用有多廣？對于一些事物，比如零售銷售，某些種類（谷歌將搜索趨勢數(shù)據(jù)劃分到該種類）和人們期望預(yù)測的事物非常相關(guān)，比如某一種汽車品牌的銷售。對于其它的項目，如房屋銷售，情況就比較模糊。但對房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人的搜索似乎比對房屋抵押貸款機(jī)構(gòu)的搜索更能清楚地說明房屋銷售問題。無論如何，只要能使這個水晶球更加透明清晰，任何方法都是受人歡迎的。

Japanese banksA capital affair 日本銀行的資本事件Apr 8th 2009 | TOKYO

The investments of Japanese banks in other firms create a vicious circle

日本銀行投資于其它公司成了一個怪圈。

IN A country where social relations are paramount, Japanese banks are so loyal to their customers that they hold shares in them.That loyalty has been tested for almost 20 years whenever the stockmarket lurches lower.But still the banks cling on to their shares, carrying around ￥10 trillion-worth($100 billion)on their books.日本是一個社交至上的國家，日本銀行如此忠心于其客戶，以至持有他們的股權(quán)。這份忠誠已經(jīng)歷了20多年來股市每每受挫時的考驗。而銀行依然保持參股姿態(tài)，在其收支平衡表上大約值10萬億日圓（1000萬美元）。

The trouble is, the further the market falls, the more banks have to write down the asset values on their balance-sheets, which increases their losses.It also shrinks the tier-one capital that they hold as a cushion against further losses, constraining their ability to lend.麻煩的是，市場越下滑，銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上資產(chǎn)的價值就越縮水，為此損失越多。一級資本亦會縮

減，一級資本被用作對付進(jìn)一步虧損的緩沖，同時放貸能力受限。

The country’s three “megabanks”—Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group(MUFG), Mizuho and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group(SMFG)—are particularly vulnerable.Their shareholdings as a percentage of tier-one capital range from just below 50% to above 60%(see chart).The trio are expected to post losses this year.日本三大“超級銀行”——三菱日聯(lián)金融集團(tuán)（Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group）、瑞穗金融集團(tuán)（Mizuho Financial Group）和三井住友金融集團(tuán)（Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group）——尤為岌岌可危。他們所持股權(quán)占一級資本的百分比由50%以下變動至60%以上（見表）。預(yù)計三大行今年將虧損。

But in Japan, even the titans find it hard to break with tradition, especially one that dates back to the Meiji era in the late 1800s when Japan began to industrialise.Capital was scarce and banks felt they had a role to support national industry;taking a stake in a borrower showed that their fates were united.Moreover, most banks were linked to companies within corporate families, called zaibatsu.That smoothed trade within and outside the groups.但在日本，即使是偉人也難于打破傳統(tǒng)，尤其是在19世紀(jì)末日本開始工業(yè)化的明治時代。資本匱乏，且銀行認(rèn)為它們有責(zé)任支撐本國的工業(yè)；參股借貸企業(yè)表示他們一損俱損，一榮俱榮。此外，大多數(shù)銀行都與家族集團(tuán)聯(lián)系在一起，稱之為財閥。這樣做使集團(tuán)內(nèi)外的交易順利進(jìn)行。

After the second world war, huge conglomerates were forbidden and replaced by the keiretsu, a network of individual companies working together.Cross-shareholdings remained routine.二戰(zhàn)后，大型企業(yè)集團(tuán)被禁，轉(zhuǎn)而由企業(yè)聯(lián)盟替代，這是一個私營公司合作網(wǎng)。交叉持股依然是慣例。

For most of the postwar period, the arrangement was highly lucrative.As share prices soared, balance-sheets swelled.This in turn pushed share prices higher.But after the bubble burst in 1990, it took a decade for regulators to begin forcing banks to reduce their shareholdings.In 2002 the government capped the ratio of equities to tier-one capital at 100%, which marked the beginning of the reduction(with the state itself as a buyer).Now, as then, requiring banks to dump their shareholdings altogether—however laudable—would run the risk of turning a bear market into a rout.戰(zhàn)后的大多時間里，此舉帶來了高額利潤。隨著股價高漲，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表跟著膨脹。這轉(zhuǎn)而推動股價進(jìn)一步走高。但在1990年股市泡沫破滅后，日本監(jiān)管層耗時十年開始強(qiáng)制銀行減少其所持股權(quán)。2002年日本政府規(guī)定了所持股本最高上限，即為一級資本數(shù)額，此舉標(biāo)志著縮減股權(quán)的開始（國家作為買主）。目前同那時一樣，要求銀行拋售他們手中的股權(quán)——雖值得贊譽(yù)——卻存在著使本就頹廢的市場垮掉的風(fēng)險。

Although today shareholdings remain huge compared with bank capital, the ratio is a third of the 150% of a decade ago.And although Japanese banks own 5% of the value of the country’s stockmarket, this too is far below the 20% they owned in 1985.So however troubling the problems remain, the banks can at least point to improvement.雖然當(dāng)前所持股權(quán)相較于銀行資本而言依然是龐大的，但比率卻是十年前的三分之一，當(dāng)時比率為（一級資本的）150%。而且盡管日本銀行占有該國股市市值的5%，但這相較于其1985年所占20%的比例真是小巫見大巫。因此雖然麻煩問題仍在，銀行卻至少能勵精圖治。

Japanese banks must deduct a percentage of certain unrealised losses from their shareholdings from their tier-one capital.According to UBS, every 10% drop in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average requires banks to raise from ￥13 billion to ￥190 billion apiece to replenish their tier-one ratios to around 7.5%.That would still be below 8%, the level considered safe in the current climate.日本銀行必須要從其所持股權(quán)和一級資本中扣除一定比例的未變現(xiàn)虧損。據(jù)瑞銀集團(tuán)（UBS），日經(jīng)225指數(shù)每下滑10%，銀行就需要增加130億至1900億日圓補(bǔ)充其一級資本，使其比率維持在7.5%左右。該比率仍低于當(dāng)前環(huán)境下8%的安全度。

Raising funds is painful.In February Mizuho said it would issue ￥80 billion in preferred securities to rebuild its capital, but pay an annual fixed coupon of almost 15%—a cost it almost certainly cannot cover from

its earnings.More recently it declined to redeem a $1.5 billion security at the first possible date, underscoring its need to preserve capital.增加資本金著實(shí)困難。瑞穗金融集團(tuán)在2月份表示，該集團(tuán)將發(fā)行800億日圓的優(yōu)先債券修復(fù)其資本，但所支付的固定票息超過15%，收益幾乎不夠支付成本。最近該集團(tuán)拒絕在最初的可能到期日贖回價值150億美元的債券，強(qiáng)調(diào)其需要保有資本。

In recent weeks, the government has offered to inject capital into the banks and has set aside ￥20 trillion to buy many of the wilting shares from them.That would enable the banks to strengthen their balance-sheets further, preserve capital and keep on lending.But most banks have resisted: relying on the state would suggest they are in trouble.And selling would require them to crystallise the losses rather than let hope—that one day the stockmarket may miraculously recover—spring eternal.In the season of cherry blossoms, hope is all they have.近幾周來，日本政府已提出向銀行業(yè)注資，并留有20萬億日圓購買銀行手中持有的許多貶值股票。此舉可使銀行資本負(fù)債表進(jìn)一步充盈、保有資本及繼續(xù)放貸。但多數(shù)銀行卻拒絕了，認(rèn)為依賴政府會表明他們陷于困境。而出售手中的股權(quán)將要求他們具體化其虧損度，而非使希望——某天股市會奇跡般反彈——永存。在這個櫻花盛開的季節(jié)，他們所擁有的只有希望而已。

第五篇：2015《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》科技類文章整合

07.14 Autism 自閉癥

Why it's not “Rain Woman”

為什么它不是“雨女”

Women have fewer cognitive disorders than men do because their bodies are better at ignoring the mutations which cause them

與男性相比，患有認(rèn)知障礙的女性較少，因為她們自身的身體能更好的忽略導(dǎo)致認(rèn)知障礙的基因突變

AUTISM is a strange condition.Sometimes its symptoms of “social blindness”(an inability to read or comprehend the emotions of others)occur alone.This is dubbed high-functioning autism, or Asperger's syndrome.Though their fellow men and women may regard them as a bit odd, high-functioning autists are often successful(sometimes very successful)members of society.On other occasions, though, autism manifests as part of a range of cognitive problems.Then, the condition is debilitating.What is common to those on all parts of the so-called autistic spectrum is that they are more often men than women—so much more often that one school of thought suggests autism is an extreme manifestation of what it means, mentally, to be male.Boys are four times more likely to be diagnosed with autism than girls are.For high-functioning autism, the ratio is seven to one.自閉癥是一種奇怪的狀態(tài)。有時它是由“社會失明”癥狀（無法閱讀或理解他人的情緒）導(dǎo)致的孤獨(dú)。這被稱為高功能自閉癥，或亞斯伯格癥候群。雖然他們的男性和女性同伴會認(rèn)為他們有點(diǎn)奇怪，但高功能自閉患者通常是成功的社會人士（有時非常成功）。然而，另一些場合，自閉癥表現(xiàn)為一系列認(rèn)知問題的一部分。那么，條件逐漸衰弱。對于那些所有被稱為自閉癥患者范圍的人來說共同點(diǎn)是男性遠(yuǎn)多于女性，以至于一個學(xué)校認(rèn)為自閉癥意味著一種極端的在心理上表現(xiàn)為一名男性。比起女孩而言，男孩有四倍的可能性被診斷為自閉癥。至于高功能自閉癥，比率達(dá)到7比1。

Moreover, what is true of autism is true, to a lesser extent, of a lot of other neurological and cognitive disorders.Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)is diagnosed around three times more often in boys than in girls.“Intellectual disability”, a catch-all term for congenital low IQ, is 30-50% more common in boys, as is epilepsy.In fact, these disorders frequently show up in combination.For instance, children diagnosed with an autistic-spectrum disorder[1] often also receive a diagnosis of ADHD.此外，自閉癥的真相，在較小程度上，就是神經(jīng)病學(xué)的認(rèn)知障礙的真相。被診斷為注意力缺乏癥的男大約是女孩的三倍?！爸橇埣病?，一個全面概括先天性智商低下的術(shù)語，在男孩中常見比例多達(dá)30%~50%，癲癇癥也是。事實(shí)上，這些疾病經(jīng)常共同出現(xiàn)。例如，被診斷為自閉癥譜系障礙的小孩經(jīng)常也收到ADHD的診斷。

Autism's precise causes are unclear, but genes are important.Though no mutation which, by itself, causes autism has yet been discovered, well over 100 are known that make someone with them more vulnerable to the condition.導(dǎo)致自閉癥的確切原因還不知道，但是基因很重要原因。雖然還沒發(fā)現(xiàn)是由于它自身的突變導(dǎo)致自閉癥，但超過100個基因被認(rèn)為是使某些人在環(huán)境影響下更容易受到攻擊的對象。Most of these mutations are as common in women as in men, so one explanation for the divergent incidence is that male brains are more vulnerable than female ones to equivalent levels of genetic disruption.This is called the female-protective model.The other broad explanation, social-bias theory, is that the difference is illusory.Girls are being under-diagnosed because of differences either in the ways they are assessed, or in the ways they cope with the condition, rather than because they actually have it less.Some researchers claim, for example, that girls are better able to hide their symptoms.這些突變在男性和女性中是一樣普遍的，所以一個對分歧發(fā)生率的解釋是對于同等的基因毀壞，男性大腦比女性的更容易受傷害。這被稱為女性保護(hù)模式。另一個廣發(fā)的解釋是社會偏見理論，認(rèn)為這些不同是虛幻的。這些被診斷不足的女孩，因為她們被評估的方式或?qū)Νh(huán)境的處理不同，而不是他們真的很少有這個癥狀。例如，一些研究者聲稱，女孩能更好的隱藏這些癥狀。The weaker sex 弱勢性別

To investigate this question, Sebastien Jacquemont of the University Hospital of Lausanne and his colleagues analysed genetic data from two groups of children with cognitive abnormalities.Those in one group, 800 strong, were specifically autistic.Those in the other, 16,000 strong, had a range of problems.為了調(diào)查這個問題，洛桑醫(yī)科大學(xué)的醫(yī)生Sebastien Jacquemont和他的同事分析來自兩組患有認(rèn)識異常癥狀孩子的基因數(shù)據(jù)。一組有800人明顯確定患有自閉癥；另一組是明顯有一系列問題。

Dr Jacquemont has just published his results in the American Journal of Human Genetics.His crucial finding was that girls in both groups more often had mutations of the sort associated with abnormal neural development than boys did.This was true both for copy-number variants(CNVs, which are variations in the number of copies in a chromosome of particular sections of DNA), and single-nucleotide variants(SNVs, which are alterations to single genetic letters in the DNA message).醫(yī)生Jacquemont剛將他的研究成果發(fā)布在美國人類遺傳學(xué)雜志上。他的關(guān)鍵發(fā)現(xiàn)是兩組中，女孩比男孩更多有伴隨異常神經(jīng)發(fā)展種類的基因突變。這在拷貝數(shù)量變異組（CNVs，一組對DNA特定部分的染色體進(jìn)行復(fù)制）和單核苷酸變異組（SNVs，修改DNA信使中單獨(dú)的基因字母）兩組中都是對的。

On the face of it, this seems compelling evidence for the female-protective model.Since all the children whose data Dr Jacquemont examined had been diagnosed with problems, if the girls had more serious mutations than the boys did, that suggests other aspects of their physiology were covering up the consequences.Females are thus, if this interpretation is correct, better protected from developing symptoms than males are.And, as further confirmation, Dr Jacquemont's findings tally with a study published three years ago, which found that CNVs in autistic girls spanned more genes(and were thus, presumably, more damaging), than those in autistic boys.從表面上看，這似乎是令人信服的女性保護(hù)模式證據(jù)。因為Jacquemont醫(yī)生檢驗的所有孩子的數(shù)據(jù)都被診斷有問題，如果比起男孩，女孩有更嚴(yán)重的突變，那就表面他們生理機(jī)能的其他方面掩蓋了結(jié)果。如果這個解釋是正確的，因此女性比男性能在出現(xiàn)的癥狀中更好的保護(hù)自己。而且，作為進(jìn)一步的確認(rèn)，Jacquemont醫(yī)生的發(fā)現(xiàn)與一個三年前發(fā)布的研究成果相符，研究發(fā)現(xiàn)CNVs在自閉癥女孩中橫跨多個基因（也因此假設(shè)更具破壞性），比患自閉癥男孩的多。

The counter-argument is that if girls are better at hiding their symptoms, only the more extreme female cases might turn up in the diagnosed groups.If that were true, a greater degree of mutation might be expected in symptomatic girls as a consequence.However, Dr Jacquemont and his colleagues also found that damaging CNVs were more likely to be inherited from a child's mother than from his or her father.They interpret this as further evidence of female-protectedness.Autistic symptoms make people of either sex less likely to become parents.If mothers are the source of the majority of autism-inducing genes in children, it suggests they are less affected by them.相反的觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為如果女孩能更好的隱藏他們的癥狀，在被診斷的小組中，只有更極端女性案例會出現(xiàn)。如果這是正確的，那么在女孩癥候群中預(yù)期有更多程度的突變。然而，Jacquemont醫(yī)生和他的同事同樣也發(fā)現(xiàn)受損的CNVs遺傳于母親的可能性大于他或她的父親。他們解釋這進(jìn)一步證明了女性保護(hù)機(jī)制。自閉癥癥狀使任何性別的人都不大愿意成為父母。如果母親是孩子自閉癥誘導(dǎo)基因的主要來源，因此建議孩子們能少受到影響母體的影響。

None of this, though, explains the exact mechanism that makes boys more susceptible than girls.On this question, too, there are two predominant theories.The first is that males are more sensitive because they have only one X-chromosome.This makes them vulnerable to mutations on that chromosome, because any damaged genes have no twin to cover for them.One cognitive disorder, fragile-X syndrome, is indeed much more common in men for this reason.Dr Jacquemont's study, however, found only a limited role for X-chromosome mutations.That suggests the genetic basis of the difference is distributed across the whole genome.即使沒有這個，準(zhǔn)確機(jī)制也說明男孩比女孩更易受到影響。在這個問題上，也有兩個主要的理論。第一個理論認(rèn)為男性更敏感，因為他們只有一個X染色體。這使對染色體的突變更易受影響，因為任何受損基因都沒有雙胞胎來掩蓋。認(rèn)知障礙，X染色體易損綜合癥，確實(shí)因為這個原因在男性中很常見。然而Jacquemont醫(yī)生的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)X染色體突變的作用有限。這表明該差異的遺傳基礎(chǔ)是分布在整個基因組的。

The other kind of explanation is anatomical.It is based on brain-imaging studies which suggest differences between the patterns of internal connection in male and female brains.Male brains have stronger local connections, and weaker long-range ones, than do female brains.That is similar to a difference seen between the brains of autistic people and of those who are not.The suggestion here is that the male-type connection pattern is somehow more vulnerable to disruption by the factors which trigger autism and other cognitive problems.Why that should be, however, remains opaque.另一種解釋則是解剖學(xué)意義上的。它基于男性和女性大腦內(nèi)部連接模式差異的腦成像研究。男性大腦比起女性而言，有較強(qiáng)的本地連接，較弱的長范圍連接。這與是否患有自閉癥者大腦的不同相似。這表明男性類型連接模式在某種程度上更加易受因此自閉癥的其他認(rèn)知障礙因素得破壞。然而為什么會這樣，仍是未解之謎。

05.27 Display screens 顯示屏

Going through a phase 相轉(zhuǎn)變

A new way to create electronic images 新的電子圖案顯示方法 Wave of the future? 未來之波

LIQUID-CRYSTAL displays are a familiar and ubiquitous technology.But if Harish Bhaskaran of Oxford University is right, their days may be numbered.The essential feature of LCDs is that the pixels in them switch between amorphous and crystal-like phases, which changes their optical properties.In a paper in this week's Nature, Dr Bhaskaran and his colleagues describe something similar in a solid material.At the least, that would stop the messy abstract-impressionist patterns which happen when an LCD is dropped too hard.At most, it might open up a new range of applications, from clothes that change colour to dimmable windscreens.液晶顯示屏是一項成熟而廣泛應(yīng)用的技術(shù)。但如果牛津大學(xué)的Harish Bhaskaran的想法實(shí)現(xiàn)，液晶屏的好景也就沒幾天了。LCD的基本特征是其像素在非晶相和類晶相間轉(zhuǎn)化，因此改變其光學(xué)性質(zhì)。在本周的《自然》雜志上，Bhaskaran博士及其同事陳述了一種類似的固體材料。至少該材質(zhì)可以防止當(dāng)LCD猛烈墜地后產(chǎn)生麻煩的抽象印象派圖案。最理想情況下，它會有新的應(yīng)用范圍，從變色布料到可調(diào)光擋風(fēng)玻璃。

Solid phase-change materials are already used to store data in optical memory disks.They are also being considered for use in memory chips, because the switch between amorphous and crystalline states alters their electrical properties in ways that can store electronic bits of data.Dr Bhaskaran, though, has shown that thin enough films of the right sort of material can be made to change colour, too.固態(tài)相變材料已經(jīng)用于在光儲存盤中儲存數(shù)據(jù)。也可能被用于記憶芯片，因為其非晶態(tài)和晶態(tài)之間的轉(zhuǎn)變也改變了其電學(xué)性能，因此他們能儲存電子數(shù)據(jù)。然而，Bhaskaran博士展示了一種特定材料膜，在足夠薄的情況下也可以改變顏色。

This property would make them suitable both for displays that rely on reflected light(so-called electronic paper)and the older, backlit sort that rely on transmitted light.The resulting displays would be thin and could be flexible if printed on the right material—increasing the range of applications they might be used in.And they would consume little power, since energy need be used only when a pixel has to be flipped from one phase to another.這一性能將使其適合于反射光顯示（所謂電子紙）和早期的依賴透射光的背光顯示。所得顯示屏不僅薄，而且鋪在合適材料上時非常靈活，增加了其應(yīng)用范圍。而且它消耗的功率更少，因為這種材料只需要在變相的時候消耗能量。The researchers' material of choice is an alloy of germanium, antimony and tellurium.Both the crystalline and the amorphous phases of this substance are stable at any temperature a device is likely to experience, and thin films of it are more or less transparent.The power needed to effect the phase change could be fed to individual pixels by electrodes made of indium tin oxide, which is also transparent.研究人員選擇的材料是鎵、銻和碲合金。這一物質(zhì)的晶態(tài)和非晶態(tài)在任何設(shè)備適用溫度下都很穩(wěn)定。其薄膜也幾乎透明。要激發(fā)相轉(zhuǎn)變所需的能量可以由透明的銦錫氧化物電極向單個像素提供。

The colour of a pixel would depend not only on its phase, but also on its thickness, which would affect the way light waves being reflected within it interfere with one another, cancelling out some frequencies while amplifying others.(The effect is similar to the creation of colours by a thin layer of oil on a puddle.)Generally, the alloy layer needs to be thinner than 20 nanometres for that to happen.單個像素的顏色不僅取決于其相態(tài)，也同其厚度有關(guān)。厚度會影響光波在兩個像素間界面處的反射，削弱部分頻率，加強(qiáng)其他頻率。（此效應(yīng)類似于池塘表面薄油層產(chǎn)生的色彩。）一般來說，合金層需要薄于20 nm才會發(fā)生這一現(xiàn)象。

To demonstrate their idea, the researchers sprayed films of their alloy onto pieces of silicon, quartz and plastic.They then used a device called an atomic-force microscope, which has a tip a few nanometres across, to apply appropriate electric currents in a grid pattern across the film's surface.This grid mimicked an array of pixels, creating a stable pattern.The result, as their picture of a Japanese wave shows, is a recognisable image—if not, yet, a perfect one.為了證明其觀點(diǎn)，研究人員將其合金鋪覆到硅，石英和塑料上。然后他們使用所謂原子力顯微鏡的設(shè)備來施加合適的電流在橫穿膜表面的網(wǎng)格上。原子力顯微鏡尖端僅有幾個納米大小。網(wǎng)格模仿像素排列，產(chǎn)生穩(wěn)定的模式。他們對日本電波的拍攝結(jié)果是一個可識別的圖像，即便不可識別，也是非常完美的。

Adding the indium-tin-oxide electrodes is a more complicated process, but to show it can be done in principle, Dr Bhaskaran has made a single pixel this way.Whether his idea will get off the lab bench and into the shops remains to be seen.It is by no means the only suggestion around for a new generation of display screens.But it looks plausible.加入銦錫氧化物電極是更為復(fù)雜的過程，但是可以從原理上展示其過程。Bhaskaran用這種方式制備了單個像素。他的想法能否從實(shí)驗室走進(jìn)商用還是未知。這絕不是新一代顯示屏的唯一方案，但頗得看好。05.18 Mitochondria and male lifespan 粒腺體影響男性壽命 Power down 粒腺體阻斷

Women outlive men.An evolutionary curiosity may explain this 女性比男性壽命長久。欲知為何，請看進(jìn)化學(xué)分解 Mankiller? 男性健康殺手？

WHY past generations regarded women as the weaker sex is a mystery to anyone who has examined the question objectively, for they are far stronger than men—outliving them in pretty well every society in the world.Partly that is because men are more violent, and their violence is largely directed at other men.But partly it is physiological.Men seem to wear out faster than women do.Yet no one knows why.過去，人們認(rèn)為女性比男性弱，而這對于客觀地調(diào)查過此現(xiàn)象的人來說是個迷，因為女性比男性壽命長，很多國家或地區(qū)都是如此。在一定程度上，這可能是因為男性要狂暴一些，而且他們的狂暴是針對其他男性。但也有可能是受生理影響。男性精力耗損要比女性快。個中緣由還沒有人知道。

Madeleine Beekman of the University of Sydney, Australia, and her colleagues, however, have a hypothesis.As they outline in a paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, they think at least some of the blame lies with subcellular structures called mitochondria(pictured), which provide the body with its power by burning glucose and using the energy thus released to make ATP, a molecule that is biology's universal fuel.瑪?shù)铝铡け瓤寺前拇罄麃喯つ岽髮W(xué)工作者，她跟同事一起提出一種假說。他們在皇家學(xué)會哲學(xué)學(xué)報發(fā)表的一篇論文中指出，男性壽命比女性短的原因可能取決于亞細(xì)胞結(jié)構(gòu)，也就是粒腺體。粒腺體通過燃燒葡萄糖為機(jī)體提供能量，利用該能量釋放三磷腺苷，三磷腺苷是整個機(jī)體的燃料。

Mitochondria are intriguing.They are descendants of bacteria that teamed up with the ancestors of animal and plant cells about a billion years ago.As such, they retain their own genes.And this is where the problems start.To avoid fights between genetically different mitochondria in the same cell, most species have arranged for their mitochondria to come from only one parent—usually the mother.This means, as Dr Beekman notes, that a male's mitochondria are stuck in an evolutionary dead end.They cannot evolve in male-specific ways, because no matter how much good they do a male body they inhabit, they will not be passed on to the next generation.粒腺體很有趣。他們是細(xì)菌與十億年前的動物或植物祖先的衍生物。如此便保留住了基因。這就是問題的開始。從遺傳學(xué)角度講，為了避免同一個細(xì)胞內(nèi)不同的粒腺體相互排斥，大多數(shù)生物都會選擇系屬同一個細(xì)胞的線粒體，通常是同一個雌細(xì)胞。如比克曼博士所提到的一樣，雄性線粒體陷入進(jìn)化死胡同。雄性線粒體不能逐漸形成雄性專一方式，因為雄性線粒體在雄性生物體上棲息的多么好，都不能繁衍到下一代。

Male and female physiologies are sufficiently similar for this not to be a central problem, but Dr Beekman thinks it may matter at the margins.She observes that one disease, called Leber's hereditary optic neuropathy, which is caused by a faulty mitochondrial gene, occurs in only 10% of women whose cellular power-packs include the damaged gene, but in 50% of men whose mitochondria are so encumbered.The gene in question, in other words, is less likely to harm a woman than a man.She then lists a lot of other diseases, including ones far commoner than Leber's hereditary optic neuropathy(such as cardiomyopathy, diabetes and several forms of deafness)that sometimes or always have a mitochondrial component, and speculates that some of these, too, may prove to be either more common or more serious in men than in women.As far as her searches of the literature can show, this is not something that has yet been looked into.這和女性和男性生生理機(jī)能十分相似，但又不是中心問題。比克曼博士認(rèn)為，這可能關(guān)系到margin。她仔細(xì)觀察了一種名為利伯氏視神經(jīng)病變的疾病，是有缺陷的粒腺體基因引起的。女性的發(fā)病率只有10%，女性細(xì)胞還包括受損細(xì)胞。而男性發(fā)病率高達(dá)50%，主要是粒腺體堵塞引起的。比克曼博士又列舉出了其他疾病，這比利伯氏視神經(jīng)病變要常見的多（例如心肌病、糖尿病和其他耳聾癥），這些疾病有時或經(jīng)常含有粒腺體成分。男性患此類疾病的發(fā)病率比女性高，男性患者也比女性患者病情嚴(yán)重的多。此篇論文的研究程度所達(dá)程度并不是如此，而且這類問題早已有人考慮過。

Part of the reason for this absence of information may be that few doctors think like evolutionary biologists, so they fail to ask the appropriate questions.Dr Beekman's hypothesis may turn out to be wrong.But it sounds eminently plausible, and certainly worth investigating.關(guān)于這些研究缺乏信息可能是因為沒有幾個醫(yī)生研究這類問題，比如進(jìn)化生物學(xué)，他們也無法提出合適的問題。比克曼教授的假說也許是錯誤的，但是，這種假說看起來很有道理，有研究價值。0104 Astrophysics 天體物理 Dust to dust 塵歸塵，土歸土

A dramatic recent “discovery” in physics is looking rather dodgy 近期，物理學(xué)中的一項戲劇性發(fā)現(xiàn)看上出非常模糊

IN MARCH Chao-Lin Kuo, an astrophysicist at Stanford University, filmed himself knocking on the door of his colleague Andrei Linde.In the 1980s Dr Linde was one of several cosmologists who developed the theory of cosmic inflation, which holds that, in the first instants of its existence, the universe underwent a brief period of faster-than-light expansion.三月，斯坦福大學(xué)天體物理學(xué)家郭兆林拍下了自己造訪同事Andrei Linde的一幕。上世紀(jì)80年代，Linden博士是少有的幾位發(fā)展了宇宙膨脹論的宇宙學(xué)家。宇宙膨脹論認(rèn)為，在其出現(xiàn)的那一瞬間，宇宙經(jīng)歷了一段超光速膨脹。

Because inflation neatly cleaves several knotty problems in cosmology, many astrophysicists(though not all)subscribe to the theory.But direct, unambiguous evidence for it has been lacking.That was why Dr Kuo was visiting Dr Linde—to tell him that, thanks to the work of a telescope in Antarctica called BICEP-2, such evidence had now been found.After digesting the news, an emotional Dr Linde broke open a bottle of champagne to celebrate.The video has been viewed almost 3m times.因為膨脹論能完整解釋宇宙學(xué)中的一些難題，許多天體物理學(xué)家都傾向于該理論。但是膨脹論仍缺乏直接、清晰的證據(jù)。這正是郭博士拜訪Linde博士的原因—在南極洲的BICEP-2天文望遠(yuǎn)鏡發(fā)現(xiàn)了這種證據(jù)。收到消息后，Linde博士開了一瓶香檳來慶祝。這段視頻已經(jīng)被瀏覽了將近300萬次。

It now seems that Dr Kuo might have to make a new video, informing Dr Linde that he has wasted a bottle of bubbly.A paper just released by the team behind Planck, a European space telescope, casts serious doubt on the BICEP-2 result.What looked like a clear window back into the earliest moments of the universe might simply have been a faint glow from the diaphanous clouds of dust that exist between the stars.現(xiàn)在好像郭博士不得不再做一個視頻，告訴Linde博士他浪費(fèi)了一瓶香檳。新近有文獻(xiàn)報道稱，歐洲的普朗克天文望遠(yuǎn)鏡拍到了對BICEP研究構(gòu)成重大質(zhì)疑的結(jié)果?；厮莸接钪孀畛鯐r間，看上去似乎是清晰的窗戶的圖像可能僅僅是恒星間的透明灰云折射的淡淡光芒。The BICEP-2 team, led by John Kovac of Harvard University, had been studying the cosmic microwave background radiation(CMB)—a weak bath of radiation, left over from the Big Bang, that suffuses the universe.They were looking for evidence of primordial gravitational waves.These are ripples in the fabric of space, created, if the theory of inflation is correct, as the early universe was undergoing its post-creation growth spurt.由哈佛大學(xué)John Kovac領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的BICEP-2小組長期研究宇宙微波背景輻射，即一種由大爆炸產(chǎn)生的微弱輻射，彌漫在宇宙中。他們在找尋原始引力波的證據(jù)。如果膨脹論是正確的的話，那么這種由宇宙在初創(chuàng)后迸發(fā)過程中產(chǎn)生的波會存在于空間架構(gòu)中。A dusty trail 布滿塵埃的小徑

Such waves should have left a distinctive, polarised mark imprinted upon the CMB.And, in a press conference on March 17th, that is exactly what the BICEP-2 team claimed to have found.It was the biggest news in physics since the discovery, in 2012, of the Higgs boson, and it was widely covered(including in The Economist).Not only would the BICEP result have confirmed the theory of inflation, but studying the gravitational waves it purported to have found would have given cosmologists a way to look back to the very earliest moments of the universe.這種波應(yīng)該在宇宙微波輻射背景上留下了一個獨(dú)特的、極化的記號。并且，在3月17日的新聞發(fā)布會上，BICEP-2小組宣布發(fā)現(xiàn)的，正是這個記號。這是從2012年希格斯玻色子發(fā)現(xiàn)以來，物理學(xué)界最大的新聞，并廣為傳播（包括《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》）。BICEP的結(jié)果不僅確認(rèn)了膨脹論這么簡單，研究他們宣稱所發(fā)現(xiàn)的引力波，將為宇宙學(xué)家提供一條回溯宇宙最開始的時刻的方法。

But gravitational waves are not the only things that BICEP-2 might have picked up.The Milky Way is filled with thin clouds of interstellar dust which, under the influence of the galaxy's magnetic field, scatter and polarise starlight.The BICEP team were confident that the contamination from the dust was small enough not to affect their detection of gravitational waves.But the behaviour of the dust is poorly understood, says Chris Lintott, an astronomer at Oxford University, and not everyone was convinced.但是引力波并不是BICEP-2發(fā)現(xiàn)的唯一一件事情。銀河中遍布的星級塵埃，在星系磁場的作用下，散射或極化星光。BICEP小組相信，灰塵的污染非常小，不足以影響其對引力波的測定。但是牛津大學(xué)的天文學(xué)家Chris Lintott稱，對灰塵行跡我們理解不足，而且無法令所有人信服。

The Planck results suggest that they were right to be sceptical.The European telescope has just unveiled a map of dust density across the entire sky.It suggests that, contrary to the BICEP team's hopes, the signal from the dust is so strong that the telescope might well have seen no primordial gravity waves at all.Planck小組的結(jié)果說明，懷疑論者是正確的。歐洲天文望遠(yuǎn)鏡最近提出了一份整個天空中的灰塵的密度分布圖。分布圖顯示，同BICEP小組的假定相反，灰塵發(fā)出的信號很強(qiáng)，天文望遠(yuǎn)鏡甚至無法檢測到任何的原始引力波。

That, at least, is the most likely interpretation, but it is not the only one.The Planck team are careful to stop short of saying that their results are fatal to BICEP's claims, pointing out that applying their data to the BICEP results involves considerable “statistical and systematic uncertainties”.There are, in other words, a couple of glimmers of hope that signs of inflation have actually been seen.One is that the precise behaviour of the dust is still mysterious, which means the mathematical transformations used to apply Planck's data to BICEP's results may turn out to be incorrect.And even if those maths are sound, statistics may ride to the rescue—for if the amount of radiation from the dust is at the lowest end of Planck's estimates, a small gravitational-wave signal may survive.至少這是最有可能的解釋。但卻不是唯一的。普朗克小組謹(jǐn)慎地不曾宣稱他們的結(jié)果對BICEP小組的聲明有顛覆效果，而是指出，將他們所獲得的數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)用于BICEP的結(jié)論中會產(chǎn)生可觀的“統(tǒng)計學(xué)和系統(tǒng)上的不確定性”。換句話說，有些閃爍有望作為膨脹論確實(shí)存在的證據(jù)。一方面，灰塵行跡的精確表述依然是個謎，也就是說，將普朗克小組的數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)換為BICEP結(jié)果的數(shù)學(xué)過程可能是錯誤的。而且即使這些數(shù)學(xué)轉(zhuǎn)換可靠，數(shù)據(jù)也可能出現(xiàn)問題。因為如果灰塵的輻射數(shù)量處在普朗克小組估計的最低端，可能會有一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)引力波信號留存。Rowing back on a triumphant announcement about the first instants of creation may be a little embarrassing, but the saga is a useful reminder of how science works.There is no suggestion that anyone has behaved dishonourably.Admittedly, the BICEP team's original press conference looks, with hindsight, seriously overconfident.More information-sharing between the various gravitational wave-hunters, all of whom guard their data jealously, might have helped tone down the triumphalism.But science, ideally, proceeds by exactly this sort of good-faith argument and honourable squabbling—until the weight of evidence forces one side to admit defeat.收回早期的勝利宣言可能有點(diǎn)尷尬，但是這個冒險非常恰當(dāng)?shù)靥嵝蚜宋覀儯茖W(xué)工作者的工作方式。沒人會覺得誰的表現(xiàn)有愧其身份。固然，BICEP小組最初的新聞發(fā)布會，事后來看，過度自信了。在各種引力波守望者當(dāng)中共享貢多信息可能有助于緩和這種勝利主義，可惜他們都視自己的數(shù)據(jù)如命根子。但是，想象中的科學(xué)，正是通過這種善意的爭論和尊重彼此的吵鬧，直到證據(jù)的分量迫使一方承認(rèn)失敗。

That could happen soon: the Planck and BICEP teams have pooled their data and are working on a joint paper, expected to be published in the next few months.Information from other gravity-wave hunting experiments—including some run by the BICEP team themselves—will shed extra light, too.It is not yet impossible that Dr Kovac and his colleagues will be proved right after all.But at this point it would take a brave cosmologist to bet on it.這一幕可能很快上演：普朗克小組和BICEP小組已將各自的數(shù)據(jù)湊到一起，并聯(lián)合撰寫論文，預(yù)計將于接下來的幾個月中發(fā)表。通過其他引力波探測實(shí)驗，包括BICEP小組自己的，將會擺脫多余的光?？赡茏罱KKovac博士及其同事無法自圓其說。但在這一時刻，需要勇敢的天文學(xué)家站出來孤注一擲。

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