第一篇：1—5月經(jīng)濟(jì)工作匯報(bào)

宜君縣人民政府

關(guān)于1—5月份經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行情況的匯報(bào)

（2012年5月28日）

今年以來，我縣嚴(yán)格按照市政府“創(chuàng)特色、比速度、爭一流”的工作要求，著力于調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)，轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式，各項(xiàng)工作抓早動快、有序推進(jìn)。預(yù)計(jì)至5月底，完成地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值

億元，同比增長

%，完成全年計(jì)劃

%；實(shí)現(xiàn)消費(fèi)品零售總額

億元，同比增長

%，占年計(jì)劃的%；三產(chǎn)增加值完成億元，同比增長

%，占年計(jì)劃的%；；農(nóng)民人均現(xiàn)金收入

元，同比增長

%；城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入

元，同比增長

%，地方財(cái)政收入完成 萬元，同比增長

%。預(yù)計(jì)到6月份，可實(shí)現(xiàn)實(shí)踐任務(wù)雙過半目標(biāo)。

一、1—5月份經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行情況

（一）項(xiàng)目建設(shè)進(jìn)展順利。預(yù)計(jì)至5月底，完成固定資產(chǎn)投資

億元，增長

%，占市上下達(dá) 15.5億元任務(wù)的%。目前被列入31個(gè)縣級重大項(xiàng)目的，已開工建設(shè)

個(gè)。其中，西園小區(qū)已完成“三通一平”及基礎(chǔ)變更工程；宜陽小區(qū)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的三棟住宅工程已建至15層主體；縣中心體育場已完成羽毛球館主體及運(yùn)動場管網(wǎng)鋪設(shè)；油氣資源勘探項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)已完鉆9口，在建1口，完成壓裂7口，出油5口；油頁巖開發(fā)項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)已完成進(jìn)場道路路基處理，預(yù)計(jì)6月份進(jìn)入設(shè)備安裝階段；彭村互通式立交橋工程已于3月底開工，正在進(jìn)行路基等前期工程；宜陽中街改造項(xiàng)目已完成墊層鋪設(shè)等；道路交通工程現(xiàn)已完成堯生至賀家河車站路基清理、福地湖環(huán)湖路路基開通工作。另外，堯生現(xiàn)代果業(yè)發(fā)展項(xiàng)目進(jìn)入掃尾，水庫除險(xiǎn)加固及安全飲水項(xiàng)目、南山度假村開發(fā)、危房改造、以工代賑異地移民搬遷、扶貧重點(diǎn)工程正在緊張施工。

（二）工業(yè)生產(chǎn)穩(wěn)定增長。預(yù)計(jì)至5月底，全縣規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值可完成 3億元，同比增長 25.5%，占年計(jì)劃的41.7%。完成原煤生產(chǎn)

萬噸，占年計(jì)劃的%；白酒

噸，占年計(jì)劃的%；醫(yī)藥

噸，占年計(jì)劃的%；核桃乳

噸，占年計(jì)劃的%。在生產(chǎn)趨好的同時(shí)銷售趨旺，全縣規(guī)模以上工業(yè)可實(shí)現(xiàn)銷售產(chǎn)值

億元，同比增長

%，產(chǎn)銷率達(dá)到

%。

（三）農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)步發(fā)展。春播備耕、植樹造林及干鮮果經(jīng)濟(jì)林建設(shè)等工作安排早、部署快。截至目前，完成蘋果新建園3.1萬畝、核桃栽植1.5萬畝，完成林業(yè)重點(diǎn)工程造林1.5萬畝、“四旁”植樹130余萬株、義務(wù)植樹25萬株，全面完成了市上下達(dá)的各項(xiàng)目標(biāo)任務(wù)。全縣播種玉米 萬畝。在全力抓好農(nóng)業(yè)增產(chǎn)的同時(shí)，我縣積極發(fā)展（棋盤核桃觀光園進(jìn)展）

（四）招商引資工作成效顯著。在西洽會上簽約的16個(gè)項(xiàng)目均進(jìn)展順利。截至目前，宜君磊鑫建材項(xiàng)目已建成投 產(chǎn)，其余10個(gè)項(xiàng)目均開工建設(shè)，另有5個(gè)項(xiàng)目開展前期工作，累計(jì)完成到位資金2.8億元，合同履約率達(dá)到100%。

（五）各項(xiàng)社會事業(yè)有序推進(jìn)。農(nóng)村義務(wù)教育經(jīng)費(fèi)保障體制得到全面落實(shí)，中小學(xué)生“蛋奶”工程穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)，衛(wèi)生、計(jì)劃生育、文化廣播電視等各項(xiàng)工作得到進(jìn)一步發(fā)展，縣城改廁工作扎實(shí)推進(jìn)，各項(xiàng)社會事業(yè)健康協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。

二、存在問題

一是工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速趨緩。煤炭生產(chǎn)受“雙節(jié)” 放假及“兩會”停產(chǎn)影響，原煤產(chǎn)量較去年下降1.3%，規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值增速放緩，比去年增速下降5.7%，給全縣工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來較大影響。二是春季農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)工作起步較慢。目前，各項(xiàng)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)已全部準(zhǔn)備到位，但由于低溫、冰凍，導(dǎo)致干鮮果經(jīng)濟(jì)林建設(shè)及植樹造林等工作仍無法全面展開。三是項(xiàng)目進(jìn)展不夠平衡。受季節(jié)因素影響，多數(shù)項(xiàng)目開工遲緩，一季度固定資產(chǎn)投資僅完成年度任務(wù)的12.9%，與市上一季度下達(dá)的任務(wù)（3.9億元）相差1.9億元。

工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值增長空間受到壓縮，銷售產(chǎn)值與主營業(yè)務(wù)收入、能源消耗與產(chǎn)值不匹配的結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾，長此以往難以保持正常生產(chǎn)效益，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)資料顯示藥廠、酒廠、核桃乳廠的產(chǎn)量、產(chǎn)

1、完成半年雙過半目標(biāo)任務(wù)壓力巨大。1—5月份，由于工業(yè)受煤礦停產(chǎn)整頓影響，規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值完成較差，農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn) 值完成0.8億，增長21%，較計(jì)劃相差1.62億，預(yù)計(jì)上半年全縣GDP僅可完成7.1億元，僅可完成年計(jì)劃的35%，距雙過半任務(wù)相差 3.05 億元；

2、項(xiàng)目進(jìn)展不平衡，固定資產(chǎn)投資和去年相比增速放緩。受季節(jié)因素影響，不少項(xiàng)目開工遲緩，1—5月份固定資產(chǎn)投資僅完成年度任務(wù)的25%，與市上半年下達(dá)的任務(wù)（5.95億元）相差1.95億元，與去年同期相比下降2.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

三、今后的工作重點(diǎn)及措施

（一）著力抓好農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，全面推進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)化建設(shè)步伐。以市場為導(dǎo)向，將優(yōu)質(zhì)玉米播種面積穩(wěn)定在21萬畝以上，其它雜糧1萬畝左右。繼續(xù)加強(qiáng)農(nóng)資供應(yīng)、實(shí)用技術(shù)培訓(xùn)推廣及病蟲害綜合防治工作，加快春播進(jìn)度，確保完成全年糧食生產(chǎn)任務(wù)。切實(shí)加強(qiáng)果園管理和畜牧專業(yè)村、示范戶建設(shè)，加快無公害蔬菜生產(chǎn)，擴(kuò)大中藥材種植規(guī)模。加強(qiáng)農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，切實(shí)改善農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)條件。

（二）強(qiáng)化企業(yè)調(diào)度和管理，提高工業(yè)運(yùn)行質(zhì)量和效益。加強(qiáng)銀企合作，積極幫助企業(yè)解決流動資金不足等困難和問題，努力提高工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)份額。強(qiáng)化企業(yè)內(nèi)部管理，支持企業(yè)技術(shù)改造和新產(chǎn)品研發(fā)工作，加快園區(qū)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)步伐。

（三）大力發(fā)展旅游業(yè)，帶動第三產(chǎn)業(yè)。修改完善鄉(xiāng)村 旅游規(guī)劃，加快福地湖、云夢山景區(qū)和龍山公園開發(fā)主體工程，推進(jìn)以黃帝陵游客集散中心為重點(diǎn)的服務(wù)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，確保以服務(wù)業(yè)為主的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)快速發(fā)展。

（四）強(qiáng)化項(xiàng)目管理，加快重大項(xiàng)目建設(shè)進(jìn)度。繼續(xù)實(shí)行重大項(xiàng)目“三位一體”包聯(lián)責(zé)任制和周檢查、月通報(bào)、季獎(jiǎng)懲工作機(jī)制，突出建設(shè)內(nèi)容、進(jìn)度、質(zhì)量及施工安全管理，層層靠實(shí)責(zé)任，力爭全面完成31個(gè)縣級重大項(xiàng)目建設(shè)任務(wù)。繼續(xù)加強(qiáng)項(xiàng)目申報(bào)、對接、落實(shí)工作。

（五）突出重點(diǎn)，切實(shí)抓好安全生產(chǎn)工作。加強(qiáng)對煤礦、交通、水庫、河堤、滑坡點(diǎn)等重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域的隱患排查化解工作，注重安全防范，完善預(yù)警機(jī)制和網(wǎng)絡(luò)，確保人民群眾生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全和社會穩(wěn)定。

第二篇：2012年1月經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會交流材料

2012年第一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會交流材料

構(gòu)皮灘鎮(zhèn)人民政府

按照會議安排，現(xiàn)將2012第一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行情況匯報(bào)如下：

一、工作完成情況

（一）主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)完成情況

預(yù)計(jì)完成地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值5525萬元，完成了全年任務(wù)數(shù)的%固定資產(chǎn)投資5070萬元，完成了全年任務(wù)數(shù)的%；財(cái)政收入萬元，支出萬元；存款余額3.33億元，貸款余額1.68億元，招商引資到位資金3000萬元，完成了全年任務(wù)數(shù)的%。

（二）項(xiàng)目建設(shè)完成情況

1、全年重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃

（1）完成農(nóng)業(yè)綜合服務(wù)樓的建設(shè)；（2）完成構(gòu)皮攤?cè)A新小區(qū)商住樓的建設(shè)；（3）推進(jìn)構(gòu)皮灘大酒店的建設(shè)；（4）加大新林路街道建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的力度；（5）推進(jìn)郭家坳至澗子水街道項(xiàng)目建設(shè)；

（6）建設(shè)郭家坳至澗子水街道排污溝、水網(wǎng)、電網(wǎng)及農(nóng)貿(mào)市場的建設(shè)；（7）完成創(chuàng)森宏源木業(yè)加工廠的建設(shè)；（8）加大太興路的開發(fā)；（9）完成大棚新村進(jìn)寨路的硬化；（10）新林小區(qū)的建設(shè)；（11）完成構(gòu)皮灘小吃街的建設(shè)；（12）落實(shí)土地整治項(xiàng)目；

（13）加快釩鉬礦科研所的建設(shè)；（14）加快天星橋電站的建設(shè)；

（15）完成黃泥洞電站的建設(shè)。

（二）重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目的完成進(jìn)度

完成農(nóng)業(yè)綜合服務(wù)樓的基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)，并完成招標(biāo)工作；構(gòu)皮灘華鑫商住小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目已進(jìn)入四樓主體施工階段；構(gòu)皮灘大酒店建設(shè)已進(jìn)入三樓主體施工；新林路道路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目已完成了街道路燈安裝、路面澆油，42戶居民的房屋建設(shè)已進(jìn)入施工階段；郭家坳至澗子水街道項(xiàng)目已平整路面1300米，完成了排污溝、和管網(wǎng)的建設(shè)以及路燈安裝；創(chuàng)森宏源木業(yè)加工廠已完成12000平方

米的土地流轉(zhuǎn)和場地平整；完成了大棚新村進(jìn)寨路的硬化800米，土地整治項(xiàng)目完成了設(shè)計(jì)及相關(guān)手續(xù)的報(bào)批；釩鉬礦科研所已完成了征地和勘測，天星橋電站完成了攔河壩的修建及廠房的建設(shè)；完成了紅旗、天生橋、永興三個(gè)村級衛(wèi)生室建設(shè)；黃泥洞電站的主體項(xiàng)目已完成；啟動了構(gòu)皮灘集鎮(zhèn)旅游客運(yùn)站的建設(shè)和構(gòu)皮灘集鎮(zhèn)小吃街的建設(shè)；現(xiàn)代煙草廠房建設(shè)已進(jìn)入招標(biāo)階段。

二、主要做法和措施

1、抓好兩個(gè)班子，落實(shí)思想統(tǒng)一。圍繞完成任務(wù)是基本目標(biāo)，思想統(tǒng)一是基礎(chǔ)，保證質(zhì)量是前提的根本要求，定時(shí)定期召開黨政班子會，股站所負(fù)責(zé)人會，村級班子會，將思想統(tǒng)一到完成任務(wù)的決心上來，統(tǒng)一到全面協(xié)調(diào)，突出重點(diǎn)上來，統(tǒng)一到領(lǐng)導(dǎo)負(fù)責(zé)，部門承擔(dān)，村級主掌協(xié)調(diào)配合上來，為實(shí)現(xiàn)各目標(biāo)任務(wù)打牢思想基礎(chǔ)，提供組織保證。

2、抓好工作調(diào)度，落實(shí)階段性目標(biāo)。根據(jù)年初各項(xiàng)目標(biāo)制定好相關(guān)的工作措施，解決好人從哪里來，事該怎么辦，錢要往哪里投的問題，根據(jù)階段性的目標(biāo)，分解好工作職責(zé)，明確好責(zé)任人和責(zé)任單位。實(shí)行統(tǒng)一調(diào)度與重點(diǎn)調(diào)度相結(jié)合，解決重點(diǎn)問題和年初前布置的相結(jié)合，克服好人員短缺和資金短缺問題，調(diào)配好骨干力量，使之干事不缺位，成事不怠慢，促進(jìn)階段目標(biāo)的基本落實(shí)，為完成全年發(fā)展任務(wù)創(chuàng)造條件。

3、抓好群工協(xié)調(diào)，落實(shí)好項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度。抓好經(jīng)濟(jì)工作，項(xiàng)目是基礎(chǔ)，群工協(xié)調(diào)是關(guān)鍵。成立了由鎮(zhèn)人大、紀(jì)檢、財(cái)政、項(xiàng)目責(zé)任單位為主體的項(xiàng)目群工協(xié)調(diào)工作領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組，研究解決好工程中遇到的新問題，新情況，千方百計(jì)讓項(xiàng)目區(qū)的群眾了解項(xiàng)目的突出作用，讓群眾參與到項(xiàng)目建設(shè)上來，千方百計(jì)讓利于民，讓群眾無理由阻礙工程。全方位協(xié)調(diào)好，確保各類項(xiàng)目按時(shí)間按里程推進(jìn)。

4、抓好投入和依法行政，落實(shí)好民生和社會穩(wěn)定。一方面加大在城管、安全、供水、供電、矛盾糾紛以及社會中的資金投

入，確保事情要辦好，問題要解決；一方面要運(yùn)用公安、司法等法律手段，嚴(yán)厲打擊損害民生，破壞社會穩(wěn)定的行為，確保社會穩(wěn)定有基礎(chǔ)，民生有保障。

三、下一步工作打算

一是抓好項(xiàng)目建設(shè)，加快發(fā)展。圍繞主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)擴(kuò)張、新農(nóng)村建設(shè)、鎮(zhèn)村基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，切實(shí)搞好項(xiàng)目建設(shè)。

二是抓好工作調(diào)度，落實(shí)階段性目標(biāo)。根據(jù)年初各項(xiàng)目標(biāo)制定好相關(guān)的工作措施，實(shí)行統(tǒng)一調(diào)度與重點(diǎn)調(diào)度相結(jié)合，解決問題，克服困難，確保目標(biāo)的完成；

三是抓依法行政工作，落實(shí)好民生和社會穩(wěn)定。及時(shí)化解矛盾糾紛，解決社會歷史遺留問題；依法厲打擊損害民生，破壞社會穩(wěn)定的行為。強(qiáng)化安全生產(chǎn)責(zé)任落實(shí)，加強(qiáng)安全生產(chǎn)各個(gè)行業(yè)和領(lǐng)域的監(jiān)管，開展安全生產(chǎn)專項(xiàng)整治、檢查，嚴(yán)防各類安全生產(chǎn)事故的發(fā)生，確保社會穩(wěn)定有基礎(chǔ)，民生有保障，為經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的發(fā)展?fàn)I造良好的環(huán)境。

第三篇：賞析版2012年3月經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人文章

賞析版2012年3月經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人文章（英漢雙語對照）匯集

Contents [2012.03.31]A muffled big bang 啞了火的大爆炸 1 [2012.03.31]Vietnam: Hero to zero 越南從英雄到狗熊 4 [2012.03.31]Falklands war: Short, victorious war 福克蘭戰(zhàn)爭30周年祭 6 [2012.03.30]Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商 10 [2012.03.24]South China Sea: Full unclosure?南中國海地位未定？ 13 [2012.03.24]Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退卻 [2012.03.24]Adagio, OPERA 悠著點(diǎn)，OPERA 19 [2012.03.17]Flavoursome research “味兒足”的研究 25 [2012.03.17]A Singapore cemetery: Brown study 一座新加坡墳場 27 [2012.03.10]Bandwagons and busts 從眾和災(zāi)難29 [2012.03.10]The death of trust 信任的消亡37 [2012.03.10]Natural stock selection 自然選擇股票 46 [2012.03.10]Poaching：Black ivory 偷獵: 黑色象牙 47 [2012.03.10]Creation story 創(chuàng)造的故事 49 [2012.03.07]WHICH IS THE BEST LANGUAGE TO LEARN? 之六－拉丁語 52 [2012.03.06]Auschwitz complex 奧斯威辛情結(jié) 54 [2012.03.05]A reliable source on the ground現(xiàn)場有一個(gè)可靠線人 57 [2012.03.05]WHICH IS THE BEST LANGUAGE TO LEARN? 之五 58 [2012.03.03]Taking the long view 高瞻遠(yuǎn)矚 60 [2012.03.03]How to rig an election 如何在選舉中作弊 66 [2012.03.02]Can the scientists keep up? 科學(xué)家跟得上嗎？ 68

[2012.03.31]A muffled big bang 啞了火的大爆炸 America’s capital markets 美國資本市場

A muffled big bang 啞了火的大爆炸

The JOBS Act and the BATS crash 《JOBS法案》和BATS的重創(chuàng)

Mar 31st 2012 | NEW YORK | from the print edition

THE capital market that is commonly thought to be the most developed in the world is, if you are being kind, in flux or, if you are not, in a mess.A stock-exchange blow-up has raised fresh questions about the reliability of America’s equities markets.More significantly, laws that govern how firms can raise money are on the verge of a profound revision.說得好聽點(diǎn)，人們公認(rèn)的全球最發(fā)達(dá)的資本市場如今處于變動期；說得不好聽，那就是一團(tuán)糟。BATS證券交易所遭受重創(chuàng)，這令人再次質(zhì)疑美國股市是否可靠。更重要的是，監(jiān)管公司集資的法律即將進(jìn)行一次全面修訂。[2012.03.17]Afghanistan: The lowered bar still looks high 難以逾越的障礙 First, the exchange snafu.A few years ago the temporary collapse of a trading venue in Lenexa, Kansas would not have been much noticed.Back then the Better Alternative Trading System(BATS)exchange was just a set of computer algorithms in the head of a man named Dave Cummings, who first computerised his own wheat-trading business and then expanded to accommodate equities.首先，BATS交易所狀況混亂。若是數(shù)年前堪薩斯州的雷內(nèi)薩斯有股票交易所一時(shí)受挫，那是不會引起什么關(guān)注的。那時(shí)，更佳替代交易系統(tǒng)（BATS）交易所不過是一個(gè)叫戴夫?卡明斯（Dave Cummings）的人想出來的一套計(jì)算機(jī)算法。一開始，他只是通過電腦來打理自己的小麥生意，后來才將這些算法應(yīng)用至股市。

Now BATS is a big provider of market liquidity.On March 23rd a coding error at the exchange disrupted trading in firms whose ticker symbols ran from A to BFZZZ.That, unfortunately, was enough to capture both the world’s most valuable listed company—Apple’s stock slumped by 9% before circuit-breaker rules caused trading to be suspended—and, more embarrassingly, the shares of BATS itself on their very first day of trading.如今，BTAS讓市場上的資產(chǎn)有了很強(qiáng)的折現(xiàn)能力。3月23日，BATS交易所出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)編碼錯(cuò)誤，導(dǎo)致股票代碼為A至BFZZZ的公司的交易陷入混亂狀態(tài)。很不幸，這個(gè)代碼段包括了蘋果公司和BATS的股票代碼，在熔斷機(jī)制中止所有交易前，全球市值最高的上市公司蘋果公司的股價(jià)下跌9%；而更尷尬的是，BATS自身的股價(jià)在首個(gè)交易日就下跌。

Strikingly, the appeal of BATS as a venue for trading appears undamaged.By March 27th the exchange’s market share had recovered to 11%, two-thirds of that commanded by the far-better-known NASDAQ, and, when measured separately, close to that of the venerable New York Stock Exchange and its Archipelago affiliate.The glitch could have a more lasting effect on BATS’s plans to become a place where firms can list shares.The exchange operator quickly decided to pull its own offering, and its credibility as a venue for initial public offerings(IPOs)is hurt.But memories in this business are short and a more salient issue is the attractiveness of any exchange as a venue for raising capital.而引人注目的是，作為證券交易所BATS的吸引力似乎絲毫未減。到3月27日，交易所的市場分額已恢復(fù)至11%，是遠(yuǎn)比它知名的納斯達(dá)克的三分之二；這個(gè)數(shù)值與歷史悠久的紐約股票交易所及其Archipelago分所的份額（兩者分開計(jì)算）很接近。這一個(gè)小失誤可能會對BATS成為企業(yè)上市的交易所的計(jì)劃產(chǎn)生更持久的影響。該交易所的運(yùn)營者迅速地作出了撤消BTAS上市的決定，而人們則更加質(zhì)疑BATS是否能成為企業(yè)首次上市的交易所。不過，這個(gè)行業(yè)是很健忘的，而更為突出的一個(gè)問題是：一般的證券交易所在籌資方面的吸引力。

Smaller firms in particular list less than they did.According to Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, an average of 165 companies with less than $50m in inflation-adjusted annual sales went public in America each year between 1980 and 2000.In 2001-2011 the average fell by more than 80%(see chart).尤其是，如今上市的規(guī)模較小的企業(yè)比過去少了。佛羅里達(dá)州大學(xué)的杰?里特（Jay Ritter）表示，1980年至2000年間美國平均每年有165家業(yè)績低于五千萬美元（已考慮通脹因素）的公司上市。而2001年至2011年此項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)下跌超過80%（見圖表）。

That has got the lawmakers moving.On March 27th Congress sent a bill titled the JOBS Act to President Barack Obama for signing.In 22 pages—the equivalent of a blog post for a legislative branch with a propensity to expand any idea to Proustian lengths—the JOBS act creates routes for firms to circumvent or modify rules introduced as far back as the 1930s.The idea is to enable companies to raise money in a number of new ways while reducing compliance costs.這種狀況使立法者有所行動。3月27日，國會將《JOBS法案》遞交給巴拉克?奧巴馬總統(tǒng)簽署。長達(dá)22頁（對一個(gè)喜歡像用《Proust》的篇幅來詳述所有概念的立法部門而言，這個(gè)法案簡直和一篇博文一樣精簡）的《JOBS法案》為企業(yè)提供了途徑來規(guī)避或修改早在二十世紀(jì)三十年代就施行的條例。《JOBS法案》旨在讓企業(yè)能在減少合規(guī)成本的同時(shí)通過多種新途徑籌資。

Congress seems to have been moved in part by the appealing title—at a time of high unemployment, no one wants to vote against an act with “jobs” in the title, even if it is actually short for “Jumpstart Our Business Start-ups Act”.But there is also a growing realisation that piling on regulations—from the Sarbanes-Oxley act after Enron to the more recent monstrosity that is the Dodd-Frank act—does nothing to revive the economy’s animal spirits.國會似乎多少被法案那吸引人的名字所打動了——在一個(gè)失業(yè)率高企的時(shí)期，不會有人想給名字中有“就業(yè)”字眼的法案投反對票，即便那實(shí)際上只是《全力加快新興企業(yè)發(fā)展法案》的縮寫。但越來越多人意識到不斷制定法規(guī)——從安然公司丑聞后的《薩班斯-奧克斯利法案》到更近些時(shí)候的那份怪異的《多德弗蘭克法案》——并無法振興經(jīng)濟(jì)。

Predictably, many of the people responsible for those earlier rules, notably Eliot Spitzer, a former New York attorney-general(and disgraced governor), have expressed outrage.Mary Schapiro, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the agency responsible for securities regulation, wrote a letter full of objections.Mr Obama is ambivalent, but more likely to sign the bill than not, if only because a dynamic market for new firms would provide a whiff of hope and change.不出所料，這些舊法案的許多制訂者也表達(dá)了他們的憤怒之情，尤其是前紐約司法部長（同時(shí)也是聲名狼藉的州長）艾略特?斯皮策（Eliot Spitzer）。證券交易委員會（負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)管證券交易的機(jī)構(gòu)）主席瑪麗?夏皮羅（Mary Schapiro）寫了一封通篇是反對意見的信。奧巴馬總統(tǒng)也很矛盾，但他很可能會簽署這個(gè)法案，皆因一個(gè)有利于新興企業(yè)的生機(jī)勃勃的市場能夠帶來一絲希望和改變。

The act will certainly make markets more friendly to firms.The most publicised components of the bill allow them to “crowdsource” slivers of equity from retail investors online;reduce regulatory requirements for companies with under $1 billion in revenues;and enable firms to stay private even as the number of owners expands to 2,000(the prior limit was 500).無疑，這個(gè)法案會讓市場變得對企業(yè)更為有利。法案中的一些條例允許企業(yè)在網(wǎng)上“眾包籌集”散戶的資金；放寬對收益少于10億美元的公司的監(jiān)管規(guī)定；并讓企業(yè)在股份持有者少于2000人時(shí)仍可不上市（之前的上限是500人）。這部分條例是最廣為人知的。

Title IV, the chapter devoted to “small company capital formation” adjusts Regulation A, a component of securities law that dates back to its earliest days, to allow firms to remain nominally private, meaning they face only minimal disclosure standards, and still raise up to $50m annually in shares that are transferable.Restrictions on circulating information on securities issuance will be loosened, as will the freedom of investment-bank analysts to provide reports on(and implicitly tout on behalf of)clients.That will mean more dubious research, but could also create more interest in the stocks of smaller firms and a profitable mechanism to take them public.法案中專門講述“小型企業(yè)集資方式”的第四章對條例A（很早期的證券法的一部分）作出了修改，讓公司名義上不上市，這意味著它們只需遵循最低信息披露標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而且每年仍然可以用可轉(zhuǎn)讓的股份籌資五千萬美元。證券發(fā)行信息的流通限制會有所放松，投行分析師也能更自由地選擇是否提供客戶信息，這樣他們可以代表客戶間接招攬投資業(yè)務(wù)。這將意味著市場調(diào)查的準(zhǔn)確性將會下降，但也能讓小型企業(yè)的股票收益更高，并建立一個(gè)對它們上市更有利的機(jī)制。

Collectively, all these rules will create a looser environment for raising equity.The law’s precise impact will be felt in two phases, says Reena Aggarwal of the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University.There will be an initial spike in fundraising activity;and there will be a longer-term effect, determined by whether the grey areas created under the law encourage viable enterprises to grow(in which case the exemptions will expand)or produce a result like London’s AIM market for smaller companies.Its looser listing standards prompted an initial flurry of interest but have since delivered poor returns for investors unable to distinguish between hype and substance.總體而言，所有的這些條例都會創(chuàng)造一個(gè)更為寬松的籌資環(huán)境。喬治城大學(xué)麥克唐納商學(xué)院的麗娜?阿加沃爾（Reena Aggarwal）說，在兩個(gè)階段內(nèi)就會看到這些條例的確切效果。一開始，將掀起一輪籌資熱潮；而且將會有更為長久的效果，但這要看法例產(chǎn)生的灰色地帶到底是會促進(jìn)企業(yè)發(fā)展（這樣一來將會進(jìn)一步放寬監(jiān)管條例）還是會讓情況變成像倫敦小型公司的另類投資市場（AIM）那樣。AIM放寬了企業(yè)上市的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，這在一開始使股票行情有短暫波動，但自此也讓那些不能夠分辨大肆吹噓的宣傳與實(shí)質(zhì)的投資者收益慘淡。

http://ecocn.org/thread-66036-1-1.html 譯者：contrary

[2012.03.31]Vietnam: Hero to zero 越南從英雄到狗熊 Vietnam 越南

Hero to zero 從英雄到狗熊

The Communist Party sticks to its principles and the economy stalls 共產(chǎn)黨堅(jiān)持自己的原則，但經(jīng)濟(jì)則停滯不前 Mar 31st 2012 | HANOI | from the print edition

AMID the bustling trade and raucous traffic of the Vietnamese capital, innumerable banners exhort citizens to “Celebrate the Spring, Celebrate the Party.” These days, Hanoians do not have much to celebrate.Not long ago, Vietnam was one of the developing world’s pin-ups.Now it is lagging badly.在越南首都熙熙攘攘的貿(mào)易與刺耳的交通噪聲中，數(shù)不清的標(biāo)語橫幅提醒市民要“贊美春天，贊美黨”。如今的河內(nèi)人沒多少可贊美的。不久前越南還是發(fā)展中國家的佼佼者之一，現(xiàn)在它卻大大落后了。

The most immediate concern is inflation, which last year rose to above 20% for the second time in three years(see chart).Vietnam now has Asia’s highest inflation rate, a fact that government censors have asked local journalists to stop reporting.Thousands of businesses have gone bankrupt, property prices have collapsed and banks and state-owned enterprises(SOEs)are riddled with bad debts.人們最直接的擔(dān)心是通脹；去年的物價(jià)上漲在三年中第二次超過20%（見圖表）。現(xiàn)在越南的通脹率位居亞洲之首，政府審查機(jī)構(gòu)已責(zé)令本國記者不再報(bào)道這一事實(shí)。數(shù)以千計(jì)的企業(yè)破產(chǎn)，樓價(jià)崩盤，銀行與國有企業(yè)（SOE）呆賬纏身。

The reversal has been sudden.Vietnam’s GDP increased by more than 8% a year from 2003 to 2007, when the country attracted a surge of foreign investment.Now the World Bank is predicting that growth will average 6% a year in the five-year period up to the end of 2012.McKinsey, a consultancy, argues that unless Vietnam boosts its labour productivity by more than half, growth is likely to dwindle to below 5%.That will be well short of the government’s target of 7-8%.As McKinsey argues, “the difference sounds small, but it isn’t.” By 2020, Vietnam’s economy could be almost a third smaller than it would have been had economy continued to grow at 7% a year.逆轉(zhuǎn)來得很突然。從2003到2007年，越南的GDP以每年大于8%的速度增長，外國投資大量涌入該國。現(xiàn)據(jù)世界銀行預(yù)計(jì)，在截至2012年底的5年中，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)平均年增長率只有6%。咨詢公司麥肯錫（McKinsey）認(rèn)為，如果越南不能將勞動生產(chǎn)率提高一半以上，則經(jīng)濟(jì)增長很可能會萎縮到5%以下。這將遠(yuǎn)低于政府7-8%的目標(biāo)。正如麥肯錫所說的，“這一差別聽上去不大，但事實(shí)并非如此。”到2020年，越南的經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會比它以每年7%的速度增長所能達(dá)到的水平低三分之一。

Everyone, even communist leaders, agrees on the main reasons for the slowdown.The poorly run, corrupt and wasteful SOEs, which account for about 40% of output, weigh the economy down.The formula of low-wage, low-cost manufacturing no longer works as it once did.Countries such as Cambodia and Bangladesh now undercut Vietnam in cheap manufactures.Yet the country has failed to move up the value-chain into more productive activities and higher-tech goods.所有的人，甚至共產(chǎn)黨領(lǐng)袖們，都對經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的主要原因看法一致。產(chǎn)品大約占總額40%的國有企業(yè)經(jīng)營不善、貪腐普遍、浪費(fèi)嚴(yán)重，因此拖累了經(jīng)濟(jì)。低工資、低成本的制造業(yè)模式不再像過去那樣有效。柬埔寨和孟加拉國一類國家現(xiàn)在正以低價(jià)與越南競爭廉價(jià)制造業(yè)市場。而國家的價(jià)值鏈又未能攀升以進(jìn)行更富成效的生產(chǎn)活動，生產(chǎn)更有科技含量的產(chǎn)品。

Frustratingly, however, realising this and doing something about it seem to be two different things in the minds of Vietnam’s communist rulers.A few optimists were hoping for changes at a three-day meeting of senior party cadres last month.Alas, there was a lot of breast-beating and little else.Nguyen Phu Trong, the general secretary of the Communist Party, urged the party to reform if it wanted to avoid an existential threat.But although his speech was made public, the rest of the meeting—in time-honoured fashion—took place behind closed doors.但令人壓抑的是，在越南共產(chǎn)黨統(tǒng)治者的心中，認(rèn)識到這一點(diǎn)和對此采取措施似乎是兩碼事。有少數(shù)樂觀主義者寄希望于上月舉行的共產(chǎn)黨高干會議，盼望這次為期三天的會議能帶來改變。唉，與會者只會大發(fā)豪言壯語，除此實(shí)在沒多少東西。共產(chǎn)黨總書記阮富仲（Nguyen Phu Trong）告誡全黨：想要避免生存危機(jī)，就必須進(jìn)行改革。但盡管官方公開發(fā)表了他的講話，但會議的其他部分則延續(xù)了閉門舉行的悠久傳統(tǒng)。

Calls by the party to reform or die are not new.“They’ve been saying that for 20 years,” says Carl Thayer, an expert on Vietnamese politics at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.What is missing, now as in the past, is any detailed plan about how to implement reforms such as restructuring the clunky state-owned sector, streamlining public investment and improving transparency.Nine executives from Vinashin, a debt-ridden state-owned shipbuilder, went on trial on March 27th charged with mismanaging state resources.It is the biggest case of its kind for several years, but the politicians who encouraged and financed the company’s grandiose expansion, including the prime minister, are not likely to be held to account.共產(chǎn)黨不是第一次提出不改革就會滅亡的呼吁。“這話他們說了20年了，”設(shè)在堪培拉的澳大利亞國防科學(xué)研究所（Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra）的越南政治專家卡爾?薩耶爾（Carl Thayer）說。但無論過去或現(xiàn)在都缺少實(shí)施改革的詳細(xì)計(jì)劃——例如怎樣重組笨拙的國有企業(yè)、精簡政府投資和提高透明度。3月27日，負(fù)債累累的國營造船廠越南船舶工業(yè)公司（Vinashin）的9名高管因被控對國家資源處置不當(dāng)而出庭受審。這是幾年來這一類案子中最大的一宗，但鼓勵(lì)這家公司的浮夸擴(kuò)展并為之提供資金的政治家包括該國總理似乎卻不會為此負(fù)責(zé)。

Even if there were a change of mind at the top, it would still be difficult for leaders to implement change throughout the system.Power in Vietnam is more dispersed than in neighbouring China, and vested interests in business and politics are bigger obstacles to change.Moreover, whereas China’s Communist Party has had some success in reinventing itself as an Ivy League-style networking club for the elite, its comrades in Vietnam appear stuck in the past.The legitimacy won by military victories more than a generation ago is fading into distant memory, and Vietnamese leaders’ claim to economic competence is increasingly difficult to sustain.即使高層改變了方針，領(lǐng)袖們要在整個(gè)體系中實(shí)施改革還是十分困難的。越南的權(quán)力分散狀況要比鄰近的中國更為嚴(yán)重，而商界與政界的既得利益群體對改革障礙更大。此外，中國共產(chǎn)黨在讓自己改造為常青藤聯(lián)盟式的全國精英人士網(wǎng)絡(luò)方面已經(jīng)取得了一定成績，但它的越南同志們似乎還在堅(jiān)持舊日的方針。幾十年前武裝斗爭的勝利贏來的正統(tǒng)地位已在遙遠(yuǎn)的記憶中逐漸淡漠，而越南領(lǐng)袖自詡善理經(jīng)濟(jì)的夸耀越來越站不住腳了。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65982-1-1.html 譯者：悠悠萬事97

[2012.03.31]Falklands war: Short, victorious war 福克蘭戰(zhàn)爭30周年祭 Thirty years after the Falklands war 福克蘭群島之戰(zhàn)30周年祭

Short, victorious war 短暫的戰(zhàn)爭，勝利的戰(zhàn)爭

On April 2nd 1982 Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.The war Britain fought to recover them still colours domestic politics 1982年4月2日，阿根廷軍隊(duì)入侵福克蘭群島 [注1]。英國收復(fù)該群島的戰(zhàn)爭至今仍影響著國內(nèi)政治

Mar 31st 2012 | from the print edition

WHEN Adrian Mole, a fictional teenage diarist of the early 1980s, tells his father that the Falkland Islands have been invaded, Mr Mole shoots out of bed.He “thought the Falklands lay off the coast of Scotland”.That Britain still had sovereignty over a clutch of islands in the South Atlantic did, indeed, seem odd.Sending a naval task force 8,000 miles to fight for a thinly inhabited imperial relic seemed odder still.In some ways the conflict has come to seem even stranger since 1982.Yet for all its eccentricity, the Falklands campaign still shapes the politics of Britain.上世紀(jì)80年代初，虛構(gòu)的日記主人公，少年安德里安?摩爾（Adrian Mole）告訴他父親，福克蘭群島遭到入侵，老摩爾當(dāng)即從床上一躍而起。他“還以為福克蘭群島在蘇格蘭沿海呢。”英國仍在南大西洋上擁有一群島嶼的主權(quán)，這看上去的確古怪。派遣一支海軍特遣隊(duì)奔襲8000英里（1英里約為1.6公里，譯者注），為一處沒多少居民的日不落帝國遺物而戰(zhàn)，這件事看上去還更為古怪。自1982年以來，從某些方面來說，這一沖突似乎變得更加古怪了。盡管有這么多奇異之處，福克蘭群島戰(zhàn)爭仍然對英國政治有極大影響。

Among historians, the main debates about the war’s legacy concern Mrs Thatcher and her Conservative government.Could she have survived as prime minister had the Falklands not been retaken?(In her memoirs, she says not.)Would the Tories have won the 1983 election had Argentina never invaded?(Probably.)But the conflict also changed attitudes to foreign policy and war itself.史學(xué)家對這次戰(zhàn)爭遺留問題的主要爭論與撒切爾夫人和她的保守黨政府有關(guān)。如果英國未能奪回群島，撒切爾能否保住她的首相職位？（她在自己的回憶錄中說不能。）如果阿根廷從未入侵，保守黨能否贏得1983年的大選？（或許可以。）但這次沖突也改變了人們對外交政策和戰(zhàn)爭本身的態(tài)度。

The dash across the Atlantic and subsequent victory—almost as much of a surprise to many Britons as they were to the Argentines—seemed to mark an end to Britain’s apparently inevitable international decline, a retreat epitomized by the Suez debacle of 1956.After the 1970s, a decade in which, Europe aside, British leaders had mostly been preoccupied with domestic woes—recession;industrial unrest;an IMF bail-out—the Falklands made foreign affairs, and Britain’s clout in the world, measures of successful leadership.That has remained the case ever since.橫跨大西洋的遠(yuǎn)征以及隨之而來的勝利不但讓阿根廷人吃驚，也幾乎同樣讓許多英國人吃驚。以1956年蘇伊士運(yùn)河敗退 [注]為縮影，英國的國際地位看上去每況愈下；這次勝利似乎標(biāo)志著這一狀況的結(jié)束。不算歐洲，上世紀(jì)70年代是英國領(lǐng)袖主要考慮國內(nèi)災(zāi)難的十年，其中包括經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退、工人罷工、國際貨幣基金組織的拯救行動等。此后的福克蘭群島戰(zhàn)爭使外交事務(wù)以及英國的國際勢力變成了衡量英國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人是否成功的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。這一點(diǎn)直到今天依然如此。

And if Britain took more notice of the world after the Falklands, the reverse was true, too.“Everywhere I went after the war,” Lady Thatcher(as she later became)wrote in her memoirs, “Britain’s name meant something more than it had.” Oleg Gordievsky, a KGB officer stationed in London in 1982 who subsequently defected, remembers that the KGB confidently expected Britain to lose.如果說英國從福克蘭群島戰(zhàn)爭后更多地關(guān)注世界事務(wù)，這次戰(zhàn)爭也使世界更多地關(guān)注英國。后來受封為女勛爵的撒切爾在她的回憶錄里寫道：“在那次戰(zhàn)爭之后，無論我走到哪里，英國的名聲都比過去更管用了。”一位1982年被派駐倫敦但后來投誠的克格勃官員奧列格?高蒂夫斯基（Oleg Gordievsky）還記得，克格勃曾非常有信心地等著看英國的笑話。

Glory days 光榮的日子

As Hew Strachan of Oxford University puts it, America’s experience in Vietnam had made war seem messy and unpredictable.Lady Thatcher’s victory suggested that war could achieve political ends quickly and efficiently.Where a knee-jerk antimilitarism had once prevailed, Britain’s armed forces came to seem noble and professional: the “best in the world”, as British politicians’ constant refrain has it.正如牛津大學(xué)的修?斯特拉臣（Hew Strachan）所述，美國在越南的經(jīng)歷讓人覺得戰(zhàn)爭骯臟而且無法預(yù)測。撒切爾夫人的勝利告訴人們：戰(zhàn)爭可以迅速、有效地完成政治目的。英國曾經(jīng)是一個(gè)自然而然地普遍反戰(zhàn)的國家，但這一次它的武裝力量看上去崇高而又稱職，似乎就像英國政治家們不斷重復(fù)的贊美那樣，是“世界上最優(yōu)秀的。”

In 1982 the campaign looked like a strategic blip.The main job, during the cold war, was to defend Europe from the Soviet Union.In retrospect, observes Mr Strachan, it was the first in a series of short, sharp, expeditionary wars that Britain was to fight: later came the first Gulf war, Kosovo and the intervention in Sierra Leone.Consciously or otherwise, the triumph in the South Atlantic may have affected Britain’s appetite for those engagements.這次戰(zhàn)爭在1982年看上去像一次臨時(shí)的戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)變，因?yàn)槔鋺?zhàn)時(shí)期西方的主要任務(wù)是保衛(wèi)歐洲不受蘇聯(lián)侵略。斯特拉臣認(rèn)為：現(xiàn)在回頭看，那是英國參加的一系列短暫、激烈的遠(yuǎn)征戰(zhàn)事的第一次，后來有第一次海灣戰(zhàn)爭、科索沃戰(zhàn)爭和對塞拉利昂（Sierra Leone）的干預(yù)。無論英國是否有所意識，南大西洋的勝利可能讓它參與這些戰(zhàn)爭的胃口大開。

That run ended in Afghanistan and Iraq—missions that have involved elusive opponents, changing rationales and disappointingly uncertain outcomes.Little wonder that the Falklands war—which was fought against a state, for a simple cause and to a swift and absolute victory—still inspires pride and nostalgia in Britain.這種狀況在阿富汗和伊拉克結(jié)束。那里的作戰(zhàn)牽涉到難以捉摸的對手、不斷變化的戰(zhàn)場基本狀況和極其未定的結(jié)局。因此，對抗一個(gè)國家、有明確的目標(biāo)、迅速取得了壓倒性勝利的福克蘭群島戰(zhàn)爭到今天還鼓舞著英國的自豪感和懷念心情，這也就不足為奇了。

Perhaps its most tangible impact has been on defence spending.Because of the war, the navy was protected from cuts for much longer than it would otherwise have been.Today the government estimates the cost of its commitment to the islands, including its garrison and air and sea links to Britain, as ￡200m($318m)a year.或許這場戰(zhàn)爭最讓人感覺得到的影響是對防務(wù)費(fèi)用的沖擊。如果沒有它，縮減海軍預(yù)算的進(jìn)程會提前許多。政府估計(jì)它今天在福克蘭群島投入的年費(fèi)用為2億英鎊（3.18億美元），其中包括駐守當(dāng)?shù)氐男l(wèi)戌部隊(duì)和維持英國本土與它的空中與海上聯(lián)系的花銷。

The navy now finds itself temporarily without an aircraft-carrier, which has led to febrile speculation that, if lost, the islands could not be retaken.That is scaremongering, for two reasons.First, as Sir Lawrence Freedman, the war’s official historian, summarises, Britain would indeed struggle to recover the islands if they were overrun again—but defending them in the first place would be much easier, because of the men and kit now deployed there.海軍在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)將沒有航空母艦服役，這讓有些人頭腦發(fā)熱地猜測：一旦失守，英國將無力奪回福克蘭群島。出于兩個(gè)原因，這種說法純屬危言聳聽。首先，如該次戰(zhàn)爭的官方史學(xué)家勞倫斯?弗里德曼（Lawrence Freedman）勛爵所總結(jié)的那樣，如果福克蘭群島再次被占領(lǐng)，收復(fù)它們的確不易；但若專注于保衛(wèi)群島則會容易許多，因?yàn)椴筷?duì)與裝備已經(jīng)部署在那里了。

Second, Argentina does not want to repeat the war, which triggered the end of military dictatorship and the advent of democracy.Subsequent governments have, however, retained their country’s claim to what Argentines call “Las Malvinas”.Cristina Fernández, Argentina’s president, has forsworn force as a tactic;yet as the 30th anniversary of the invasion approaches, she has energetically pressed the case by other means(in a bid, some argue, to distract voters’ attention from high inflation and other economic woes).其次，阿根廷并不想再次發(fā)動戰(zhàn)爭。上次戰(zhàn)爭導(dǎo)致軍事獨(dú)裁政權(quán)的垮臺與民主政治的到來，但此后的各屆政府都繼續(xù)聲稱阿根廷對他們所說的“馬爾維納斯群島”擁有主權(quán)。阿根廷總統(tǒng)克里斯蒂娜?費(fèi)爾南德斯（Cristina Fernández）曾發(fā)誓放棄考慮武力；而在入侵30周年即將到來之際，她積極地以其他手段在此問題上施壓。有人認(rèn)為，此舉是為了轉(zhuǎn)移選民對高通脹與其他經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難的關(guān)注。

Recent steps by her administration have been designed to impede tourism—along with fishing, a mainstay of the islands’ economy—and even Argentina’s overall trade with Britain.In that context, the friendly inducements she occasionally dangles before the 3,000 islanders don’t wash.“Everything they’ve done makes us deeply suspicious of everything they’ve offered us,” says Dick Sawle, a member of the Falklands’ legislative assembly.Ms Fernández has striven to enlist other governments in the region to her niggly campaign—likely to intensify if oil is produced in the islands’ waters.Rockhopper, an energy firm, found oil offshore in 2010, and says it expects to start production in 2016.她的政府最近設(shè)計(jì)采取的步驟是妨礙該群島的旅游業(yè)和漁業(yè)，后者是群島的經(jīng)濟(jì)支柱。他們甚至不惜損害阿根廷與英國的整體貿(mào)易。在這種情況下，她偶爾友好地對3000島民伸出的誘惑橄欖枝沒有說服力。“福克蘭群島立法議會”成員迪克?索爾（Dick Sawle）說：“他們的所作所為讓我們對他們向我們提出的一切建議都深感懷疑。”費(fèi)爾南德斯努力爭取讓該地區(qū)其他國家政府參與她的找茬攻勢；這一攻勢在該群島海域出產(chǎn)石油后可能會進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)。2010年，一家能源公司，洛克霍普公司（Rockhopper）在該島近海發(fā)現(xiàn)了石油；據(jù)該公司稱，正式開采預(yù)計(jì)將于2016年開始。

For its part, the British government says it is absolutely committed to the islanders’ right of self-determination.They overwhelmingly wish to stay British, a desire that is the basis of the British claim to sovereignty.Compromise would anyway be impossible while the war is a living memory: polls suggest that public opinion in mainland Britain is firmly against any concession.Jeremy Browne, the Foreign Office minister responsible for Falklands policy, doubts that, say, Brazil or Uruguay has much interest in a regional economic blockade of the islands.He thinks Argentina would be overreaching if it tried to organise one.That may prove optimistic, especially if an oil bonanza stimulates wider Latin American resource nationalism.英國政府方面聲稱，它完全尊重群島島民的自決權(quán)。占壓倒多數(shù)的島民希望繼續(xù)保持英國公民身份，這一意愿是英國聲稱擁有該群島主權(quán)的基礎(chǔ)。在人們對戰(zhàn)爭記憶猶新的時(shí)刻，妥協(xié)無論如何也是不可能的：民調(diào)顯示，英國本土公眾輿論堅(jiān)決反對任何讓步。負(fù)責(zé)福克蘭群島政策的外交國務(wù)大臣杰里米?布朗（Jeremy Browne, the Foreign Office minister）不覺得諸如巴西或?yàn)趵缫活悋視Φ貐^(qū)性封鎖該群島經(jīng)濟(jì)有多大興趣。他認(rèn)為，阿根廷組織這樣封鎖的結(jié)果只有因不自量力而失敗。這話可能過于樂觀，特別當(dāng)龐大的石油貯藏刺激了更廣泛的拉丁美洲資源民族主義的時(shí)候。

Mr Browne observes that tension over the Falklands has not followed a straight path: it is worse now than it was 15 years ago.The same may be true of the war’s emotional impact.Britain’s current leaders, who are mostly in their 40s, reached political consciousness in the early 1980s;the Tory half of the coalition, at least, reveres Lady Thatcher.Their views on the Falklands are noticeably firm.The war’s impact on Argentina was much more dramatic.But, quietly and enduringly, it left its mark on Britain, too.布勞恩注意到，福克蘭群島的局勢緊張并非單向發(fā)展：現(xiàn)在的局勢比15年前更為緊張。戰(zhàn)爭造成的情感沖擊可能也是如此。當(dāng)今英國的領(lǐng)袖們大多40多歲，他們在上世紀(jì)80年代初開始有政治意識；至少聯(lián)合政府中的保守黨成員尊敬撒切爾夫人。他們在福克蘭群島問題上的觀點(diǎn)顯然十分堅(jiān)定。這次戰(zhàn)爭對阿根廷的沖擊更加戲劇性得多，但它也靜悄悄地在英國留下了持久的影響。

[注]1956年的蘇伊士敗退：1956年埃及政府宣布將蘇伊士運(yùn)河收歸國有，造成英法兩國與以色列不滿。三國出兵進(jìn)攻埃及，但在國際社會包括美國與蘇聯(lián)的強(qiáng)大壓力之下被迫退兵。該危機(jī)直接導(dǎo)致英國艾登政府下臺。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65944-1-1.html 譯者：nayilus

[2012.03.30]Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商 Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商

Flying too close to the Sun? 亢龍有悔？

Mar 30th 2012, 2:38 by J.M.| BEIJING and S.C.| HONG KONG

It’s a long way down from the 102nd floor of the International Commerce Centre in Hong Kong, where Analects once enjoyed a really high tea(see picture).But the dizziness you feel looking out of the window cannot compare with the vertiginous sensation the building’s owners, Sun Hung Kai Properties, must now be feeling.Their co-chairmen, Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong and Raymond Kwok Ping-luen were arrested on March 29th by Hong Kong’s Independent Commission Against Corruption(ICAC)under the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance.So too was a former head of Hong Kong’s civil service, Rafael Hui.The arrests are widely seen as among the most sensational in the commission’s 38-year history.筆者曾在香港環(huán)球貿(mào)易廣場的第102層喝過一次午茶，從102樓到地面的距離可不是開玩笑（見圖）。你從窗戶望出去會感覺到一陣頭暈，但是這和該大樓的所有者新鴻基地產(chǎn)3月29日的感覺相比只是小巫見大巫。那天，新鴻基的雙董事長郭炳江和郭炳聯(lián)被香港廉政公署以違反《防止賄賂條例》拘捕。同樣被拘捕的還有前政務(wù)司司長許仕仁。這一事件被廣泛看成是香港廉政公署38年歷史上最轟動的一次拘捕。

The ICAC is, as usual, saying extremely little about the case, which involves one of Hong Kong’s wealthiest families.Sun Hung Kai’s buildings include the three tallest in Hong Kong.But the investigation will generate enormous media interest.The Kwok family has long been a topic of much gossip in the territory because of feuding among its members.In addition there have been growing concerns in Hong Kong about the cosiness of relations between its leaders and business tycoons.Last month the ICAC launched an investigation into the behaviour of Hong Kong’s chief executive, Donald Tsang, because of hospitality he had received from wealthy businesspeople.This is the first action ever taken by the ICAC involving someone of his paramount rank.Mr Tsang denied breaking rules but apologised for failing to live up to public expectations.這樁案件涉及的是香港最富有家族之一，新鴻基地產(chǎn)旗下的產(chǎn)業(yè)包括香港最高的三座大樓，而廉政公署如往常一樣幾乎沒有透露任何案情內(nèi)容。雖然如此，案件調(diào)查還是會受到巨大的媒體關(guān)注。郭家因?yàn)槠浼易宄蓡T之間的內(nèi)斗長久以來都是香港坊間八卦的話題。此外，香港人也越來越擔(dān)憂其政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和商業(yè)大亨之間往來過密。上個(gè)月香港特首曾蔭權(quán)因?yàn)榻邮芨簧痰恼写艿搅鸬恼{(diào)查。這是廉政公署歷史上第一次圍繞香港最高官員開展行動。曾蔭權(quán)否認(rèn)自己違反了任何法規(guī)，但對于自己沒有達(dá)到公眾的期望這一點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了道歉。

Public disquiet about the tycoons’ influence was evident during the recent competition to replace Mr Tsang, who completes his term of office at the end of June.A former civil-service chief, Henry Tang, was at one time thought to be China’s favourite for the job(an endorsement that carries enormous weight among the fewer than 1,200 members of the election committee).But public opinion turned against him, partly because of his tycoon background, forcing China to switch sides to Leung Chun-ying, a man with a more populist reputation who is regarded with some suspicion by the tycoons(see this analysis by Reuters of the political role of Hong Kong’s rich).曾蔭權(quán)的任職將于6月底到期，從最近決定其繼任的競爭中很明顯可以看出公眾對于富商的政治影響力感到不安。前政務(wù)司司長唐英年一度曾被看作是中央政府心目中的最佳人選（中央的支持對于人數(shù)不到1200人的選舉委員會有舉足輕重的影響）。但是在一定程度上因?yàn)槠涓簧瘫尘埃艿焦娸浾摰拿土遗険簦罱K迫使中央不得不棄他轉(zhuǎn)而支持梁振英。外界認(rèn)為梁振英更具有民粹主義傾向，香港富商對他很不信任。（點(diǎn)擊查看路透社關(guān)于香港富人政治角色的分析）

Online commentators in the rest of China are keenly watching the ICAC’s moves.For all the Hong Kong public’s worries about corruption, their counterparts elsewhere in the country have a good deal more to complain about.Even Chinese officials sometimes speak admiringly of the ICAC’s ability to operate without political interference and of Hong Kong officialdom’s relatively clean conduct.But the Communist Party has been reluctant to give anti-corruption institutions the same independent powers as the ICAC for fear of weakening the party’s authority and embarrassing its leaders.As we reported in Banyan this week, Bo Xilai, Chongqing’s recently deposed party chief, is alleged by party officials to have tried blocking a corruption investigation involving his family.It is widely believed, however, that the accusations being levelled against Mr Bo are themselves motivated as much if not more by political rivalry than by any wrongdoing.中國其它地方的網(wǎng)路評論員都在熱切觀望香港廉政公署的行動。雖然香港公眾對于腐敗非常擔(dān)憂，大陸公眾抱怨的腐敗現(xiàn)象可比香港多多了。就算大陸官員偶爾也會對香港廉政公署能夠不受政治干擾行事以及香港官場相對較為清廉這兩點(diǎn)表示欽佩。但是中共目前為止還不太原意讓大陸的反腐機(jī)構(gòu)擁有香港廉政公署那樣的獨(dú)立權(quán)力，因?yàn)樗麄兒ε逻@會削弱黨的權(quán)威，也會讓中共領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人尷尬。正如本周在Banyan專欄的報(bào)道所寫那樣，據(jù)黨內(nèi)官員所說，最近被撤職的重慶市委書記***曾試圖壓下一起涉及其家人的腐敗調(diào)查。不過很多人相信在針對***指控的背后動機(jī)里，政治斗爭占的分量至少要和任何實(shí)際錯(cuò)誤占的分量一樣大，甚至更大。

At an annual meeting of anti-corruption officials on March 26th, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, had little progress to point to.He said there were still frequent corruption cases “in departments that possess great power and in areas where the management of funds is centralised”.This was in spite of investigations last year into 2,524 officials at or above the rank of county leader, including seven minister-level officials(compared with 2,723 such officials investigated in 2010, including six of ministerial rank).“Corruption is the most crucial threat to the ruling party”, he said, repeating a well-worn line.3月26日在一年一度的廉政工作會議上，中國總理溫家寶找不出反腐工作有任何顯著進(jìn)展。他提到腐敗現(xiàn)象“在行政權(quán)力集中的部門和資金資源管理權(quán)集中的領(lǐng)域”還很常見。盡管去年一年因腐敗查辦的就有縣處級以上官員2524人，包括省部級官員7人（相比之下，2010年查辦的縣處級以上官員是2723人，包括省部級官員6人），腐敗問題仍然猖獗。溫家寶總理又再次強(qiáng)調(diào)一句老話：“執(zhí)政黨最大危險(xiǎn)是腐敗。”

Some of China’s bolder media have dared to suggest the obvious.“If you think that China’s problem can be solved by holding a meeting and issuing a directive, you are cheating yourself and cheating others”, said a commentary in Shenzhen Evening News(here, in Chinese), a newspaper in the Chinese city that borders on Hong Kong.It said that among the many “simple” solutions would be to set up an ICAC.Shangdu.com, a web portal in the central province of Henan, published a commentary arguing much the same.It said Hong Kong’s ICAC enjoyed high public approval because it operated according to procedures over which the public had oversight.“Citizens all have the right to make those who violate the procedures, or fail to uphold them properly, pay the price”, it said(here, in Chinese).中國一些較大膽的媒體對這些人人心知肚明的事情也敢旁敲側(cè)擊了。和香港相鄰的深圳市的一間報(bào)社《深圳晚報(bào)》發(fā)表了一篇評論，提道：“如果以為中國的問題開個(gè)會，發(fā)個(gè)通知就能解決，那真是自欺欺人”（點(diǎn)擊見原文）。它提出很多“簡單”的解決辦法中的一條就是建立廉政公署。中部省份河南的一個(gè)網(wǎng)站商都網(wǎng)發(fā)表了一篇觀點(diǎn)類似的評論。它認(rèn)為香港廉政公署之所以受到公眾高度支持是因?yàn)樗腔诠娍梢员O(jiān)督的程序運(yùn)作的。文中提到“無論是違反制度者，還是制度執(zhí)行不力者，公眾都有權(quán)利讓其付出代價(jià)”（點(diǎn)擊見原文）。

Hong Kong’s citizens may sometimes moan that their democratic rights are stifled, but seen from the rest of China the territory remains a paragon of the rule of law.香港市民可能有時(shí)會埋怨一下他們的民主權(quán)利受到了抑制，但是從中國其它地方看來，香港還是一個(gè)法治的典范。

譯者注

標(biāo)題“too close to sun”是指希臘神話中伊卡洛斯用蠟制的翅膀飛翔，過于接近太陽蠟翼融化而落海身亡。作為比喻有行事超過一定尺度導(dǎo)致玩火自焚的意思，一定程度上接近中文的“亢龍有悔”。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65691-1-1.html 譯者：nayilus

[2012.03.24]South China Sea: Full unclosure?南中國海地位未定？ South China Sea

南中國海波詭云譎

Full unclosure? 全然未定？

As oil-and-gas exploration intensifies, so does the bickering 在加緊勘探油氣田的緊鑼密鼓聲中，爭吵也同時(shí)加劇 Mar 24th 2012 | SINGAPORE | from the print edition

“THE South China Sea,” noted the People’s Daily this week, “is currently calm and peaceful”.As far as that goes, the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece was quite right.But the sea also remains in dispute, with China and five other countries having claims to some or all of its islands, rocks and waters.It is also a cause of superpower rivalry.America asserts its own “national interest” in the freedom of navigation in the sea, and, like the South-East Asian claimants to the sea, sees China as the threat.For that, the ambiguity that shrouds China’s own position has much to do with it.《人民日報(bào)》本周指出：“今天的南海風(fēng)平浪靜。”就目前情況而言，這份中共喉舌報(bào)紙所說無誤。但南海問題仍有爭議：中國與其他五國已對其一部分或全部島嶼、礁石與海域提出主權(quán)聲索。這也是造成超級大國對抗的一個(gè)原因。美國聲稱，在該海域的航行自由關(guān)系到它的“國家利益”；而且它也和東南亞聲索國一樣，把中國視為威脅。中國對其本身立場的闡述不清與“威脅論”有很大關(guān)系。

The two most active disputes concern the right to exploration for what may be enormous reserves of hydrocarbons, making the sea such a prize.On March 15th Vietnam protested against an announcement by China’s state-owned offshore-oil company that it was seeking bids for the rights to drill in 19 blocks.Vietnam pointed out that one block was just one mile(1.6km)from an island in the Paracel chain, which Vietnam claims, having been evicted from there by China in 1974.爭議最大的兩處地點(diǎn)都與油氣勘探權(quán)有關(guān)。該海域油氣儲備可能十分龐大，因此令各方看重。中國國企中海油對19個(gè)海域區(qū)塊的鉆探權(quán)招標(biāo)，越南政府3月15日就此提出抗議，指出其中1個(gè)區(qū)塊距離西沙群島某島只有1.6公里（1英里）；越南認(rèn)為它對該島擁有主權(quán)，但1974年中國占領(lǐng)該島，驅(qū)逐了越南駐軍。

Meanwhile, to the south, China itself has objected to plans by the Philippines to open areas in the Reed bank, off the island of Palawan, for oil-and-gas exploration.The Philippines claims the area as part of the “exclusive economic zone”(EEZ)attached to its main archipelago.同時(shí)，為勘探油氣田，菲律賓計(jì)劃開放南海南部巴拉望島外禮樂灘的一些水域；中國反對此舉。菲律賓聲稱該地區(qū)是與它的主要群島相連的“專屬經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)”（exclusive economic zone(EEZ)）的一部分。

The area falls within the “nine-dashed line”, dating to maps from the pre-Communist era in the late 1940s, that China says proves its sovereignty.That line, which has no basis in international law, is one reason other countries are so wary of China’s intentions.中國認(rèn)為，在中共1949年掌權(quán)以前的地圖上劃有 “南海九段線”，這是它對該海域擁有主權(quán)的證明，而上述區(qū)域位于南海九段線之內(nèi)。但這條線沒有國際法依據(jù)，因此是其他國家提防中國的一個(gè)原因。

However, in this case, China does seem to be basing the claim on the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS).China(like Taiwan and Vietnam)also claims the entire Spratly archipelago.These are mainly tiny, uninhabitable rocks and islets which, under UNCLOS, would be entitled to “territorial waters” of just 12 nautical miles(22km).However, Robert Beckman, a professor of international law at the National University of Singapore, has pointed out that China could claim that some features near Reed bank qualify as “islands”, under UNCLOS, having their own full 200-mile EEZ, which would overlap with the Philippines’.但在這件事上，中國的立場似乎確實(shí)以《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》（United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS)）為依據(jù)。中國也與臺灣和越南一樣聲稱擁有整個(gè)南沙群島的主權(quán)。按《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》規(guī)定，該群島主要由無人居住的小礁石和小島組成，只有12海里（22公里）領(lǐng)海權(quán)；但新加坡國立大學(xué)（National University of Singapore）國際法教授羅伯特?貝克曼（Robert Beckman）指出，中國可以聲稱，南沙群島中距禮樂灘不遠(yuǎn)的一些地域有資格稱為“島”，因而按《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》規(guī)定有完整的200海里專屬經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)，而這一專屬經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)與菲律賓的專屬經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)重疊。

If China were to limit itself to claims based on UNCLOS, things would be clearer.In this context, Taylor Fravel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has pointed to a seemingly encouraging statement from the Chinese foreign ministry in late February that “no country including China has claimed sovereignty over the entire South China Sea.”

如果中國把自己的聲索限制在《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》的基礎(chǔ)上，情況就會清楚些了。關(guān)于這一點(diǎn)，麻省理工學(xué)院的傅泰林（Taylor Fravel）認(rèn)為，中國外交部發(fā)言人2月底的講話似乎十分鼓舞人心：“沒有任何國家包括中國對整個(gè)南海提出主權(quán)聲索。”

This could be interpreted to mean that the nine-dashed line is not a claim to all the sea’s waters, simply to the land features.But it does not quite say so—after all, the line does not encompass all of the South China Sea, just nearly all.這可以解釋為，南海九段線并非聲索南海全部海域，而只聲索地域。但對此中國并未明言——說到底，這條線雖然幾乎包圍了整個(gè)南海，但卻并非全部。

With the Philippines, China does seem to be taking a somewhat softer line, pushing the possibility of joint oil-and-gas development.And the People’s Daily was keen to blame America for any tension in the sea.It was responding to a press conference by General Burton Field, the commander of American forces in Japan, at which he called on China to respect the freedom of navigation.中國對菲律賓的態(tài)度似乎不算強(qiáng)硬，還向它推銷聯(lián)合開發(fā)油氣田的主張。但《人民日報(bào)》熱衷于將這一區(qū)域的任何摩擦歸罪于美國。它回敬了駐日美軍司令博爾頓?菲爾德（Burton Field）將軍在記者招待會上呼吁中國“尊重航行自由”的說法。

The People’s Daily, rightly again, argued that this is not at present under threat.It had a point when it argued that America may be blurring the issues as part of its “return to Asia” strategy, which includes strengthening its ties with China’s neighbours.But for the uncomfortable realisation that this strategy has been broadly welcomed in the region, China has itself to blame.《人民日報(bào)》再次正確地指出，航行自由當(dāng)前并未受到威脅。它認(rèn)為美國故意混淆這些問題，可能是它 “重返亞洲”戰(zhàn)略的一步棋；該戰(zhàn)略包括加強(qiáng)它與中國的鄰國之間的關(guān)系。這一說法也很有道理。但這一戰(zhàn)略在該地區(qū)受到廣泛支持，這種局面令中國不舒服，但有些地方也怪它自己。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65573-1-1.html 譯者：悠悠萬事97

[2012.03.24]Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退卻

Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退卻

Under Raúl Castro, Cuba has begun the journey towards capitalism.But it will take a decade and a big political battle to complete, writes Michael Reid 在勞爾?卡斯特羅的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，古巴已經(jīng)開始向資本主義轉(zhuǎn)變。但完成這個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)變需要十年的時(shí)間和劇烈的政治斗爭。（邁克爾?里德）

WHEN ON JULY 31st 2006 Cuban state television broadcast a terse statement from Fidel Castro to say that he had to undergo emergency surgery and was temporarily handing over to his brother, Raúl(pictured with Fidel, left), it felt like the end of an era.The man who had dominated every aspect of life on the island for almost half a century seemed to be on his way out.In the event Fidel survived, and nothing appeared to change.Even so, that July evening marked the start of a slow but irreversible dismantling of communism(officially, “socialism”)in one of the tiny handful of countries in which it survived into the 21st century.2006年7月31日，古巴國家電視臺播放了菲德爾?卡斯特羅的一個(gè)簡短聲明，聲明說，他必須接受緊急手術(shù)，他的弟弟勞爾將暫時(shí)代理他的職務(wù)。這使人們感覺像是一個(gè)時(shí)代的結(jié)束，這位支配這個(gè)島國近半個(gè)世紀(jì)的人看來正在離開歷史舞臺。后來菲德爾恢復(fù)了健康，看起來什么也沒有改變。即便如此，那個(gè)7月的夜晚還是標(biāo)志了古巴共產(chǎn)主義（正式稱謂是“社會主義”）開始了緩慢但不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的瓦解過程。古巴是少數(shù)幾個(gè)在21世紀(jì)仍然存活的社會主義國家之一。

Raúl Castro, who formally took over as Cuba’s president in February 2008 and as first secretary of the Communist Party in April 2011, is trying to revive the island’s moribund economy by transferring a substantial chunk of it from state to private hands, with profound social and political implications.He has abolished a few of the many petty restrictions that pervade Cubans’ lives.He has also freed around 130 political prisoners.His government has signed the UN covenants on human rights, something his brother had jibbed at for three decades.Repression has become less brutal, though two prisoners have died on hunger strikes.Cubans grumble far more openly than they used to, and academic debate has become a bit freer.But calls for democracy and free elections are still silenced.The Communist Party remains the only legal political party in Cuba.And Raúl Castro has repeatedly dashed the hopes of many Cubans that the hated exit visa, which makes it hard(and for some, impossible)to leave the country, will be scrapped.勞爾?卡斯特羅于2008年2月正式接任古巴總統(tǒng)，2011年4月接任共產(chǎn)黨第一書記。他為了重振這個(gè)島國瀕危的經(jīng)濟(jì)，正在把相當(dāng)一部分國有企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樗饺怂校@個(gè)舉措具有深遠(yuǎn)的社會和政治意義。他放松了在古巴人生活中無處不在的各種限制，釋放了約一百三十名政治犯。他的政府簽署了聯(lián)合國人權(quán)公約，這是他哥哥躊躇了三十年都沒有做的事情。盡管最近有兩名犯人因絕食而死，但鎮(zhèn)壓手段已經(jīng)不像過去那樣殘酷了。古巴人現(xiàn)在可以比過去更為公開地發(fā)牢騷，學(xué)術(shù)爭論的空氣也比過去自由一點(diǎn)兒。但是，要求民主和自由選舉的呼聲仍然受到壓制，共產(chǎn)黨仍然是古巴唯一的合法政黨。古巴現(xiàn)行的出境簽證制度遭人痛恨，因?yàn)樗钩鰢浅＠щy，有些人甚至完全出不了國，但勞爾?卡斯特羅一再拒絕了改變這個(gè)制度的要求。

The economic reforms, set out in 313 “guidelines” approved by a Communist Party congress in April 2011, are being implemented slowly and with great caution.That is because they face stubborn resistance from within the party and the bureaucracy.Indeed, the leadership shuns the word “reform”, let alone “transition”.Those terms are contaminated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, an event that still traumatises Cuba’s leaders.Officially, the changes are described as an “updating” in which “non-state actors” and “co-operatives” will be promoted.But whatever the language, this means an emerging private sector.在2011年的共產(chǎn)黨代表大會上，通過了實(shí)行經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的313條“指導(dǎo)方針”，現(xiàn)在改革正在緩慢地、極為謹(jǐn)慎地進(jìn)行著，因?yàn)樗艿絹碜渣h內(nèi)和官僚基層的頑強(qiáng)抵抗。事實(shí)上，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層避免使用“改革”這個(gè)詞，更不要說“轉(zhuǎn)型”了，因?yàn)檫@些詞語與蘇聯(lián)的崩潰相聯(lián)系，而古巴領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人仍然沒有從蘇聯(lián)崩潰的傷痛中恢復(fù)過來。在官方語言中，目前的變化，包括促進(jìn)“非國有部門”和“集體所有”部門的發(fā)展，都被稱為“更新”。但是不管怎樣用詞，私人經(jīng)濟(jì)部門事實(shí)上正在興起。

The new president often says his aim is to “make socialism sustainable and irreversible”.The economy will continue to be based on planning, not the market, and “the concentration of property” will be prohibited, Raúl Castro insisted in a speech to the National Assembly in December 2010.He is careful not to contradict his elder brother openly: his every speech contains several reverential quotes from Fidel, who despite his semi-retirement is consulted about big decisions.(For brevity and clarity this report will refer to each Castro brother by his first name.)新總統(tǒng)經(jīng)常說，他的目的是“使社會主義保持活力和不可動搖“。在2010年12月的全國代表大會上，勞爾?卡斯特羅說，經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然建立在計(jì)劃基礎(chǔ)上而不是市場基礎(chǔ)上，并且不容許“財(cái)產(chǎn)的集中化”。他很注意不表現(xiàn)出和他哥哥有任何不一致之處：他的每次講話都要虔誠地引用菲德爾的語錄。雖然菲德爾已經(jīng)半退休了，但做出重大決定前仍要征求他的意見。（為了簡潔和清晰，本報(bào)告將省略這兄弟兩人的姓氏，使用各自的名字以示區(qū)別。）

Fidel’s frail and ghostly presence in his compound in Siboney, a leafy enclave of mansions on Havana’s western outskirts, doubtless checks the speed of reform.But he no longer controls the levers of power and rarely comments on domestic politics.菲德爾在斯伯尼的住宅是在哈瓦那西郊一個(gè)林蔭濃密的院落內(nèi)，他雖然身體虛弱，極少露面，但他的存在本身無疑限制了改革的速度。不過他已不再掌控權(quán)力，也很少對國內(nèi)事務(wù)發(fā)表意見。

This special report will argue that whatever the intentions of Cuba’s Communist leaders, they will find it impossible to prevent their island from moving to some form of capitalism.What is harder to predict is whether they will remain in control of the process of change, or whether it will lead to democracy.我們將在本報(bào)告[注1]中論證，不管古巴共產(chǎn)黨的意圖是什么，他們已不可能阻止這個(gè)島國走向某種形式的資本主義。難以預(yù)測的只有兩個(gè)問題：他們是否能持續(xù)控制變化的進(jìn)程；這種變化是否會帶來民主。

No turning back this time When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, many outsiders believed that communism in Cuba was doomed.Massive Soviet subsidies and military aid for Cuba had offset the economic embargo imposed by the United States in 1960.By the 1970s they had also brought stability after Fidel had all but bankrupted the island by his manic shifts from forced industrialisation back to exaggerated reliance on sugar, the economy’s mainstay since colonial days.The overnight withdrawal of Soviet subsidies and trade links caused Cuba’s economy to contract by 35% between 1989 and 1993(see chart 1).目前的改革不可逆轉(zhuǎn)

當(dāng)蘇聯(lián)于1991年崩潰時(shí)，很多人認(rèn)為共產(chǎn)主義在古巴的前途暗淡了。自美國于1960年開始對古巴實(shí)行經(jīng)濟(jì)封鎖以來，蘇聯(lián)提供的巨額補(bǔ)貼和軍援抵消了封鎖的影響。在上世紀(jì)七十年代，菲德爾放棄了強(qiáng)制工業(yè)化進(jìn)程，轉(zhuǎn)而完全依賴自殖民時(shí)代就是古巴經(jīng)濟(jì)主體的蔗糖業(yè)，使這個(gè)島國瀕臨破產(chǎn)邊緣，也是蘇聯(lián)的援助維持了古巴的穩(wěn)定。蘇聯(lián)一夜之間停止了援助和貿(mào)易關(guān)系，使古巴的經(jīng)濟(jì)從1989到1993年間縮水了35%（見圖1）。

In response, Fidel declared a national emergency, dubbed “The Special Period in Peacetime”.He opened the island to foreign investment and mass tourism and legalised small family businesses and the use of the dollar.But then he found a new benefactor in Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, who began to provide Cuba with cheap oil.A big chunk of that is officially counted as a swap of oil for the services of some 20,000 Cuban doctors, sports instructors and security advisers working in Venezuela.China, too, emerged as a new source of credit.為了對付這個(gè)局面，菲德爾宣布國家處于緊急狀態(tài)，他稱之為“和平時(shí)期的特殊階段”。他為外國投資打開了門戶，開啟了規(guī)模巨大的旅游業(yè)，使小家庭企業(yè)和美元流通合法化。但是不久，委內(nèi)瑞拉的胡戈?查韋斯成了新的援助者，他給古巴提供了廉價(jià)的石油。作為交換，大約兩萬名古巴醫(yī)生、體育教員和安全專家在委內(nèi)瑞拉工作，支付了石油價(jià)值的一大步部分。中國也成為貸款的來源之一。

Thus bolstered, Fidel reversed course again.Many family businesses, as well as some foreign ventures, were shut down;the dollar ceased to be legal tender in 2004.The ageing leader launched “the Battle of Ideas”, sending out armies of youths as ill-trained teachers and social workers.委內(nèi)瑞拉和中國的幫助給古巴打了強(qiáng)心針，菲德爾再次扭轉(zhuǎn)方向。很多家庭企業(yè)和一些外國投資項(xiàng)目被關(guān)閉，美元流通也在2004年又成為非法。年邁的菲德爾發(fā)起了“為理想而奮斗”運(yùn)動，把大批缺乏訓(xùn)練的年輕人送去做教師和社會工作者。

This time, Raúl has insisted, there will be no turning back: the reforms will happen sin prisa, pero sin pausa(slowly but steadily).But Raúl is no liberal.He and Ernesto “Che” Guevara, the Argentine adventurer who died in Bolivia in 1967, were the orthodox Marxists among the leaders of Fidel’s Rebel Army, the ragtag band of bearded guerrillas who toppled the corrupt, American-backed dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista.As defence minister from 1959 to 2008, Raúl set up and led Cuba’s formidable armed forces.勞爾說，這次的改革不會逆轉(zhuǎn)了：改革將緩慢但穩(wěn)步地展開。但勞爾并不是一個(gè)自由主義者。他和1967年死于玻利維亞的阿根廷冒險(xiǎn)家埃內(nèi)斯托?“切”?格瓦拉一樣，是菲德爾的反叛軍領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者中的正統(tǒng)馬克思主義者。這個(gè)反叛軍是由一群衣衫襤褸、留著大胡子的游擊隊(duì)員組成的，他們推翻了美國人支持的、腐敗的富爾亨西奧?巴蒂斯塔的獨(dú)裁統(tǒng)治。從1959到2008年，作為國防部長，勞爾創(chuàng)建并領(lǐng)導(dǎo)了古巴的強(qiáng)大武裝力量。

When Raúl took over from Fidel, he moved slowly at first, amid factional fighting.To general surprise, the men who lost out in 2009 were Carlos Lage, who had run the economy since the Special Period and was seen as a reformer, and Felipe Pérez Roque, the young foreign minister.They were denounced for having criticised the Castros(Mr Lage was caught on tape describing the leadership as “l(fā)iving fossils”)and for having been corrupted by power.Instead, José Ramón Machado Ventura, an 81-year-old Stalinist, was named as Raúl’s deputy.勞爾接替菲德爾之后，在派別斗爭的漩渦中，他一開始采取了緩慢推進(jìn)的策略。出乎人們意料的是，在2009年有兩個(gè)人在派別斗爭中失勢；一個(gè)是卡洛斯拉格，他自菲德爾的“特殊階段”開始就掌管經(jīng)濟(jì)事務(wù)，并被人看作是一個(gè)改革者；另一個(gè)是年輕的外長菲利普?佩雷斯?洛克。他們被指控曾經(jīng)批評卡斯特羅兄弟（拉格先生說領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人是“活化石”時(shí)被人錄了像）而且被權(quán)力所腐蝕。此外，81歲的斯大林主義者何塞?拉蒙被任命為勞爾的副手。

But Raúl also quietly discarded nearly all of Fidel’s ministers and key aides.Their replacements are mostly army officers.Rafael Hernández, an academic who edits Temas, a quarterly journal attached to the culture ministry, points out that many of them are engineers by profession.然而勞爾也悄悄地?cái)[脫了菲德爾的幾乎所有部長和關(guān)鍵助手，接替他們的大多數(shù)是軍隊(duì)官員。文化部下屬季刊《Temas》編輯、學(xué)者拉斐爾?赫爾南德斯指出，這些官員大多數(shù)有工程專業(yè)背景。

Fidel ruled Cuba through the unbridled exercise of his massive ego.He centralised all power in his own hands, imposed Utopian egalitarianism and performed frequent policy swerves.By all accounts, Raúl is more modest, by nature a delegator and team-builder, more interested in getting things done than making speeches.When he took over in 2006 he put an end to the 4am meetings his brother loved.He is the Sancho Panza to Fidel’s Don Quijote(they even look the parts).勞爾統(tǒng)治古巴的方式體現(xiàn)了他極度自負(fù)的性格。他把所有的權(quán)力都集中到自己手里，奉行烏托邦式的平均主義，政策變化無常。盡管如此，勞爾仍然是比較溫和的。從特性上說，他是一個(gè)善于分權(quán)和發(fā)揮團(tuán)隊(duì)作用的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，著重于做事而不是演講。在2006年上任后，他取消了菲德爾喜歡的早晨四點(diǎn)鐘舉行會議的慣例。他是桑丘潘沙，菲德爾是唐吉坷德（他們兩人甚至長得像這兩個(gè)角色）。[注2]

Raúl seems to be acutely conscious that Cuban communism is living on borrowed time.The economy is grossly unproductive.Venezuelan aid in 2008 was offset by devastating hurricanes and the knock-on effects of the global financial crisis on Cuba’s tourism and trade.The country is running down its capital, but living standards remain frugal.Its famed social services are no longer affordable.The population is shrinking.Mr Chávez, its Venezuelan patron, is being treated for cancer and faces a close election in October.And the Cuban leadership is gerontocratic: Fidel is 85, Raúl is 80 and the average age of the Politburo is over 70.The históricos, as those who fought in the revolution are known, are dying off.With Mr Lage gone, they have no visible successors.Raúl’s opportunity to institutionalise the system has come very late in the day.“We either rectify things, or we run out of time to carry on skirting the abyss *and+we sink,” he warned in his December 2010 speech.勞爾看起來充分意識到古巴共產(chǎn)主義的時(shí)間非常緊迫。經(jīng)濟(jì)完全缺乏效率。2008年委內(nèi)瑞拉的援助被災(zāi)難性的颶風(fēng)和全球金融危機(jī)對古巴旅游業(yè)和貿(mào)易的打擊所抵消。國家的資金迅速縮水，但人民生活水準(zhǔn)依然低下。古巴著名的社會服務(wù)已經(jīng)入不敷出。人口也在減少。她的資助者、委內(nèi)瑞拉的查韋斯先生正接受癌癥治療，而且面臨著將于十月份舉行的勢均力敵的大選。此外，古巴政治是老人政治：菲德爾85歲，勞爾89歲，政治局的平均年齡是70多歲。那些1959年革命的參加者正在陸續(xù)離開人世。在拉格先生被解職后，他們沒有明顯的繼任者。勞爾進(jìn)行制度性變革的機(jī)會來得太晚了。他在2010年12月的講話中說：“我們或者是進(jìn)行變革，或者是失去跳過深淵的時(shí)機(jī)而從此沉沒。”

-------------------------[注1]本文是《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》3月24日期關(guān)于古巴的七篇系列報(bào)告的第一篇。[注2]桑丘潘沙和唐吉坷德是小說《唐吉坷德》中的兩個(gè)主要人物，前者是后者的隨從。http://ecocn.org/thread-65453-1-1.html 譯者：西米

[2012.03.24]Adagio, OPERA 悠著點(diǎn)，OPERA Neutrinos 中微子

Adagio, OPERA 悠著點(diǎn)，OPERA

An experiment clocks neutrinos at their expected clip—ie, not faster than light 一項(xiàng)實(shí)驗(yàn)檢測了中微子的速度，結(jié)果符合預(yù)想；也就是說并未超過光速

Mar 24th 2012 | from the print edition

FOUR weeks ago researchers at the OPERA collaboration, in Italy, discovered a glitch that may account for their startling finding last September that elusive particles called neutrinos move faster than light, in flagrant disregard of Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity.Now the first crosscheck from a rival experiment seems to vindicate the overwhelming majority of physicists who were convinced all along that an error must have crept in to OPERA’s analysis.On March 16th members of the ICARUS collaboration posted a paper on arXiv, an online repository, which reports that neutrinos they looked at are not travelling faster than light.4周前，意大利的OPERA合作（OPERA collaboration）團(tuán)隊(duì)的研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)儀器有點(diǎn)問題，這或許可以解釋他們?nèi)ツ?月震驚一時(shí)的發(fā)現(xiàn)：一種名為中微子的詭秘粒子居然違反了阿爾伯特?愛因斯坦的相對論，速度超過了光速。現(xiàn)在，同行的另一實(shí)驗(yàn)第一次核查了結(jié)果，似乎證實(shí)了絕大多數(shù)物理學(xué)家一直確信的情況：在OPERA的研究中一定發(fā)生了什么失誤。3月16日，ICARUS合作團(tuán)隊(duì)的成員在網(wǎng)上智庫arXiv上貼出了一篇論文，宣稱他們追蹤的中微子的速度并未超過光速。

Both OPERA and ICARUS study neutrinos sent from Europe’s main particle-physics laboratory, CERN.The particles are created in one of CERN’s accelerators, located just outside Geneva, and travel through the Earth’s crust to a laboratory beneath Gran Sasso, a mountainous massif in the Apennines.ICARUS’s measurements, all seven of them(not bad, given neutrinos’ unwillingness to interact with anything, including detectors), were taken at the end of last year, after the beam had been tweaked to improve the accuracy of the data.OPERA和ICARUS團(tuán)隊(duì)都在研究從歐洲主要的粒子物理實(shí)驗(yàn)室CERN中發(fā)出的中微子。這些粒子是在CERN在日內(nèi)瓦郊外的一臺加速器中產(chǎn)生的，它們穿過地殼，到達(dá)阿爾卑斯山脈格蘭薩索（Gran Sasso）群峰地層之下的另一個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)室。ICARUS團(tuán)隊(duì)的全部七次檢測都是在中微子束經(jīng)過改進(jìn)從而提高了數(shù)據(jù)精度之后，于去年年底進(jìn)行的。中微子惰性很強(qiáng)，與任何事物包括檢測器都很少有相互作用，所以能有七次成功的實(shí)驗(yàn)算是很不錯(cuò)的了。

OPERA, too, tapped the modified beam, but reported in November that its un-Einsteinian result persisted.But then, on February 23rd, its researchers owned up to discovering what could be a source of experimental error in the Global Positioning System(GPS)signals used to synchronise atomic clocks at either end of the neutrino beam.Specifically, it concerns the optical-fibre connector that brings the GPS signal to OPERA’s master clock.This, the OPERA team said, may not have been functioning properly when the measurements were taken.OPERA團(tuán)隊(duì)同樣用經(jīng)過改進(jìn)的中微子束進(jìn)行實(shí)驗(yàn)，但他們?nèi)ツ?1月再次報(bào)告了與愛因斯坦理論相悖的結(jié)果。后來，今年2月23日，該團(tuán)隊(duì)的研究人員承認(rèn)，他們用以使中微子束兩端的原子鐘同步的全球定位系統(tǒng)（GPS）信號中發(fā)現(xiàn)了可能導(dǎo)致實(shí)驗(yàn)誤差的來源。具體地說，這與將GPS信號傳輸?shù)絆PERA主時(shí)鐘的光纖連接器有關(guān)。OPERA團(tuán)隊(duì)認(rèn)為，該連接器可能在他們進(jìn)行實(shí)驗(yàn)時(shí)工作不正常。

According to an anonymous leak published on the website of Science magazine, after tightening the connection and then measuring the time it takes data to travel the length of the fibre, the researchers found that the data arrive 60 nanoseconds earlier.That is precisely the time by which neutrinos appeared to have overtaken light on their 730km(450-mile)trip.據(jù)在《科學(xué)》雜志網(wǎng)站上匿名貼出的一則泄露報(bào)告稱，把接頭擰緊后再行測試，研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，數(shù)據(jù)通過光纖全長的時(shí)間縮短了60毫微秒。這正是中微子在其730公里（450英里）的行程中好像比光提前到達(dá)的時(shí)間。

However, in February OPERA still seemed to be hedging its bets.Its researchers pointed to a second potential source of error which, if confirmed, would actually reinforce its surprise result.(This was related to a device called an oscillator, used to provide the time stamps needed to synchronise the clocks at CERN and Gran Sasso.)ICARUS’s findings now make that much less likely.但2月份OPERA團(tuán)隊(duì)似乎還未放棄賭注。該團(tuán)隊(duì)的研究人員指出了第二個(gè)可能的誤差來源，如經(jīng)證實(shí)，它實(shí)際上可以強(qiáng)化他們的爆炸性結(jié)果。（這一誤差來源與一種名為振蕩器的裝置有關(guān)，這一裝置為CERN與格蘭薩索實(shí)驗(yàn)室中的原子鐘提供同步所需的時(shí)間標(biāo)識。）ICARUS團(tuán)隊(duì)的發(fā)現(xiàn)令這一可能性大為減小。

Sergio Bertolucci, CERN’s research director, stresses that throughout the superluminal saga OPERA’s researchers have behaved with “perfect scientific integrity”.They have opened their methods and data to scrutiny and invited independent measurements.The superluminal jolt spurred physicists to action.“This is how science works,” Dr Bertolucci says.CERN的研究主任薩爾吉奧?貝爾托盧奇（Sergio Bertolucci）強(qiáng)調(diào)，在整個(gè)超光速問題的探討過程中，OPERA的研究人員表現(xiàn)出了“完美的科學(xué)誠信”。他們公開了他們的研究方法和數(shù)據(jù)供人們仔細(xì)檢查，并鼓勵(lì)他人的獨(dú)立實(shí)驗(yàn)。超光速造成的震撼讓物理學(xué)家振奮，并投入了進(jìn)一步工作。“科學(xué)工作就該如此，”貝爾托盧奇博士這樣說。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65447-1-1.html 譯者：悠悠萬事97

[2012.03.17]Afghanistan: The lowered bar still looks high 難以逾越的障礙 Afghanistan 阿富汗

The lowered bar still looks high 兩國消除了部分隔閡，但障礙似乎仍難以逾越

A random massacre knocks even more confidence in the Western strategy 一次意外的屠殺事件進(jìn)一步損害了外界對西方戰(zhàn)略的信任 Mar 17th 2012 | KABUL | from the print edition

WESTERN ambitions in Afghanistan have shrunk to a level so modest, they hardly seem commensurate with the investment of blood and treasure.This week, immediately before talks with President Barack Obama that were dominated by the war, David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister, defined “doing the job” in Afghanistan as leaving the country “l(fā)ooking after its own security, not being a haven for terror, without the involvement of foreign troops.” That does not seem too much to ask.Democracy, women’s rights, even political stability: all these are now at best subsidiary parts of a job that has consumed the past decade.At present the campaign involves a NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, ISAF, of 130,000 soldiers, 90,000 of them American.西方目前在阿富汗想達(dá)到的戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)是如此有限，與遭受的人員傷亡及投入資金極不相稱。本周，就在與奧巴馬總統(tǒng)舉行主要討論阿富汗戰(zhàn)爭的會談前不久，英國首相大衛(wèi)-卡梅倫將在阿富汗 “執(zhí)行任務(wù)”定義為：讓阿富汗“在沒有外國軍隊(duì)協(xié)助的情況下，自己能夠勝任安保工作、不再是恐怖分子的避風(fēng)港”。這個(gè)要求似乎并不過分。民主、婦女權(quán)利甚至政治穩(wěn)定：現(xiàn)在充其量只能算是西方在阿富汗開展行動（已經(jīng)持續(xù)了十年）的次要目標(biāo)。目前，在阿富汗執(zhí)行任務(wù)的是一支由北約領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的國際安全援助部隊(duì)（ISAF），該部隊(duì)一共有13萬名士兵，其中的9萬人都來自美國。

In the early hours of March 11th one of those Americans apparently lost his mind and went on a murderous rampage in Kandahar province, killing 16 Afghans, including nine children, in their homes.After that, it is hard to dispel the notion that ISAF’s mission, even with its truncated objectives, is in serious trouble.As American soldiers and officials have been quick to point out, this was a freak if horrific incident.It could happen to any army anywhere.Yet it happened to NATO’s in Afghanistan, and not long after some of its soldiers had caused outrage by mindlessly burning copies of the Koran.Others had been filmed apparently urinating on the corpses of militants they had just killed.在3月11日早晨，一名據(jù)說喪失理智的美國士兵在坎大哈省闖入居民家中槍殺了16名阿富汗人，受害者當(dāng)中有9名是兒童。這次事件發(fā)生以后，不得不讓人產(chǎn)生一種感覺：雖然國際安全援助部隊(duì)的任務(wù)目標(biāo)已經(jīng)縮減，但即使是要實(shí)現(xiàn)縮減后的目標(biāo)現(xiàn)在也有大麻煩了。就像美國士兵及官員后來迅速指出的那樣，這一事件雖然可怕但卻反常。類似事件可能發(fā)生在全球各地的任何一支軍隊(duì)中。然而，在幾名士兵無意中焚燒了《古蘭經(jīng)》導(dǎo)致阿富汗民眾憤怒之后不久，駐阿富汗的北約軍隊(duì)就發(fā)生了這一事件。還有其他士兵被拍到似乎在他們之前剛殺死的武裝分子的尸體上小便。

It all adds up to an abiding, albeit unfair, impression of an army that has lost both its discipline and its sense of purpose.Taliban and other insurgents use indiscriminate methods of slaughter and are responsible, according to the United Nations, for nearly four-fifths of civilian deaths.Even so, the Taliban accused “sick-minded American savages” of a “blood-soaked and inhumane crime”.盡管不太公平，但所有這些事件都更加讓人覺得這支軍隊(duì)已經(jīng)喪失了紀(jì)律與目標(biāo)。據(jù)聯(lián)合國稱，阿富汗平民死亡人數(shù)中有五分之四都是由塔利班及其他武裝分子發(fā)動襲擊造成的，而且他們在襲擊時(shí)不區(qū)分平民和軍人。盡管如此，塔利班仍然譴責(zé)“神智錯(cuò)亂的殘暴的美國人”犯下了“血腥的、不人道的罪行”。

Wrong place, wrong time 錯(cuò)誤的地點(diǎn)，錯(cuò)誤的時(shí)間

Worse, it happened in a district where ISAF had made some of its most intense efforts to win local trust.Panjwai, not far from Kandahar city, was a crucible of the Taliban movement in the 1990s and a centre of militant violence until the “surge” of foreign troops in 2009.After that, under Fazluddin Agha, a formidable local governor, security improved, and foreign money has been poured into opening schools and clinics.更糟的是，該事件發(fā)生在距坎大哈市不遠(yuǎn)的本杰瓦爾。國際安全援助部隊(duì)（ISAF）盡了最大的努力試圖贏得當(dāng)?shù)鼐用竦男湃巍Ｔ摰貐^(qū)在上世紀(jì)90年代是塔利班活動的中心；在2009年大量外國軍隊(duì)被派遣到這里之前是武裝分子發(fā)動暴力襲擊的中心。外國軍隊(duì)入駐之后，在一位強(qiáng)硬的當(dāng)?shù)亻L官Fazluddin Agha的治理下，該地區(qū)的安全狀況有所改善，大量的外國資金投入到學(xué)校與診所的建設(shè)當(dāng)中。

Mr Agha was killed by a suicide-bomber in January, but his influence may help explain the relatively restrained reaction in Panjwai itself to the atrocity.Elsewhere, many Afghans seemed ready to believe that ISAF was lying: that the soldier had not acted alone, or had been drunk.And many would have seen similarities with ISAF’s much resented policy of “night raids”—the seizure and often killing of militants in private houses.But local Panjwai elders said that, rather than take to the streets in fury, people were ready to await the result of an investigation into the deaths.All the same, on March 13th the Taliban seized the chance to launch an attack on the government delegation coming to pay its respects to the dead.In another incident, an Afghan driver raced in a stolen vehicle towards 200 marines at a southern base, as the American defence secretary’s plane was landing there.The man later died of burns.Fazluddin Agha在一月份的一次自殺式炸彈襲擊事件中喪生。本杰瓦爾慘案發(fā)生之后，當(dāng)?shù)鼐用癖憩F(xiàn)得相對克制可能是因?yàn)檫@位已故長官的影響力仍然存在。在全國其他各地，許多阿富汗人似乎都認(rèn)為國際安全援助部隊(duì)在撒謊：槍擊慘案的作案士兵不止一個(gè)人，作案者也并沒有喝醉。許多人也看到了這次慘案與引起阿富汗人強(qiáng)烈不滿的政策——“夜間襲擊”——的相似之處：在這種突然襲擊中，國際安全援助部隊(duì)經(jīng)常會闖入民宅擊斃武裝分子。但當(dāng)?shù)氐睦先苏f，相對于憤怒地走上街頭抗議，他們正在等待這一慘案的調(diào)查結(jié)果。盡管如此，塔利班卻利用這個(gè)機(jī)會，在3月13日向前去哀悼死者的政府代表團(tuán)發(fā)動了襲擊。在另外一起恐怖襲擊事件中，一名阿富汗人駕駛一輛偷來的汽車朝南部一個(gè)基地中的200名海軍士兵沖過去，當(dāng)時(shí)美國國防部長的飛機(jī)剛降落。后來，襲擊者死于燒傷。

What might most alarm ISAF’s commanders, however, is that the massacre seemed to cause the greatest shock abroad, coming on top of a steady stream of ISAF casualties, the angry protests provoked by the Koran-burning, and the temporary withdrawal of foreign advisers from Mr Karzai’s ministries after two of them were killed in Kabul last month.Together, it all adds to the picture of a war going awry.Opinion polls this week showed 54% of Americans in favour of pulling troops out of Afghanistan even before the Afghan army is ready to take over.Some 73% of Britons polled think the war cannot be “won”.然而，可能最讓國際安全援助部隊(duì)的長官們緊張的是這一屠殺事件在國外似乎也引起了極大的震動，甚至超過了國際安全援助部隊(duì)自身不斷遭受人員傷亡、駐阿士兵焚燒《古蘭經(jīng)》引發(fā)的憤怒抗議及在兩名外國顧問于上個(gè)月被殺害以后從卡爾扎伊的政府部門中暫時(shí)撤回顧問人員引起的反應(yīng)。所有這些都讓民眾更加覺得戰(zhàn)爭已經(jīng)越來越偏離其本來的目的。本周進(jìn)行的民調(diào)顯示，有54%的美國人甚至支持在阿富汗軍隊(duì)做好接手國內(nèi)安保工作的準(zhǔn)備之前就從阿富汗撤軍。接受調(diào)查的英國民眾中，約有73%的人認(rèn)為這場戰(zhàn)爭不可能“取勝”。

Inevitably, it has all put pressure on the politicians to show they are doing their best to bring the troops home.In their talks, Mr Obama and Mr Cameron discussed the drawdown.The date at which all combat operations are handed over to Afghan forces is still meant to be the end of 2014.But Mr Cameron said Britain and America are now “absolutely in lockstep” on ending NATO’s “l(fā)ead combat role” around mid-2013, presumably at the end of the summer fighting season.這些必然會給政府官員帶來壓力，迫使他們表現(xiàn)出他們正在盡最大的努力將部隊(duì)撤回國內(nèi)。在奧巴馬與卡梅倫的會晤中，他們討論了縮減阿富汗駐軍的問題。將作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)全部移交給阿富汗軍隊(duì)的時(shí)間仍然是在2014年年底。但卡梅倫說英國與美國現(xiàn)在正“以絕對一致的步調(diào)”在2013年年中結(jié)束北約軍隊(duì)的“作戰(zhàn)主導(dǎo)角色”，有可能在2013年夏天作戰(zhàn)季結(jié)束之后。

It is not clear what this means in practice, but the generals actually fighting the war are dead against any acceleration of the “transition” timetable.Not only do they hope foreign forces may inflict further damage on the insurgency before then, but they also need the time to train an Afghan army that can outlast both their presence and the Taliban.這一說法最終操作起來會如何還不清楚，但實(shí)際參加作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)的指揮官們卻堅(jiān)決反對加快“轉(zhuǎn)交作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)”的步伐。他們不僅希望北約軍隊(duì)在此之前能讓叛亂人員遭到更沉重的打擊，他們還需要時(shí)間訓(xùn)練阿富汗軍隊(duì)，使其能夠在外國軍隊(duì)撤離后勝任安保工作并能壓制住塔利班。

The shooting adds fresh strain to ISAF’s relations with Mr Karzai and his government, on whose behalf, it is sometimes hard to remember, it is fighting.Mr Karzai has now called for NATO-led forces to keep out of Afghan villages.When Leon Panetta, the American defence secretary, showed up in Afghanistan this week, he seemed unlikely to make much progress on the biggest item on the bilateral agenda, forging a “strategic partnership agreement” meant to govern the security relationship after 2014, when both sides hope American troops will stay in Afghanistan, though no longer on the front line.Of the two big sticking points, one has recently budged, with an agreement to transfer some detainees to Afghan custody.The other, however, the Afghan demand for an end to “night raids”, looks harder than ever.At the very least, America may have to agree that the raids will all be “Afghan-led”.ISAF says most already are.這次槍擊事件使得國際安全援助部隊(duì)與卡爾扎伊及阿富汗政府的關(guān)系更加緊張。后者有時(shí)候都忘了這場戰(zhàn)爭是為了他們而打。現(xiàn)在卡爾扎伊要求北約軍隊(duì)不要進(jìn)入阿富汗村莊。當(dāng)美國國防部長萊昂?帕內(nèi)塔本周抵達(dá)阿富汗時(shí)，他似乎不可能在雙方議事日程中最主要的議題上取得太大進(jìn)展。該議題即達(dá)成“戰(zhàn)略性合作協(xié)議”，該協(xié)議旨在規(guī)定2014年以后雙方的安全合作關(guān)系。屆時(shí)，盡管美軍不再參與前線作戰(zhàn)，但雙方都希望美國軍隊(duì)能都繼續(xù)駐扎在阿富汗。在影響雙方談判的兩個(gè)主要問題中，其中一個(gè)已經(jīng)取得些許成果：雙方達(dá)成協(xié)議將部分囚犯轉(zhuǎn)交給阿富汗看管。而第二個(gè)問題，也就是阿富汗政府要求北約軍隊(duì)停止開展“夜間襲擊”，似乎比以往任何時(shí)候都難以解決。至少，美國得同意所有的夜間襲擊都要由“阿富汗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)”。國際安全援助部隊(duì)表示，事實(shí)上大多數(shù)的夜間襲擊行動已經(jīng)是在阿富汗部隊(duì)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)之下進(jìn)行的。

A third obstacle has now arisen: extraterritoriality, or the American insistence that soldiers such as the Panjwai suspect—who has now been flown out of Afghanistan—are investigated and judged by the American army, not in the Afghan courts.From Baghdad to Okinawa, this is a thorny issue, and now is not a good time in Kabul to negotiate an agreement guaranteeing American troops immunity from local prosecution even after 2014.現(xiàn)在，阻礙雙方達(dá)成最終協(xié)議的第三個(gè)障礙出現(xiàn)了：治外法權(quán)。也就是說：美國堅(jiān)持其士兵（如現(xiàn)已乘機(jī)離開阿富汗的本杰瓦爾槍擊慘案的嫌犯）必須由美國軍方來調(diào)查和審判，而不是在阿富汗法庭受審。從巴格達(dá)到?jīng)_繩，這都是一個(gè)棘手的問題。但是現(xiàn)在，要討論即使是保證2014年以后美軍士兵不在當(dāng)?shù)厥軐彽膮f(xié)議似乎都不太是時(shí)候。

Watching all this closely will be the Taliban.They will be aware of Western donors’ intention to scale back a proposed 352,000-strong Afghan security force, which is supposed to ensure the survival of the Kabul regime after 2014.And on March 15th they suspended talks with the Americans about opening an office in Qatar, which was to have been the venue for a dialogue.The idea of talks was based on the assumption that both sides know the Taliban cannot hope to conquer and hold Kabul and the north of the country, whereas the south will never have peace until the Taliban are brought into politics.塔利班肯定正密切關(guān)注著事件的進(jìn)展。他們會注意到西方捐助者縮減原定為352000人的阿富汗安全部隊(duì)的意圖，該部隊(duì)承擔(dān)著在2014年之后保護(hù)阿富汗政府的職責(zé)。在3月15日，塔利班停止了與美軍關(guān)于在卡塔爾設(shè)立一個(gè)辦公室的談判，該辦公室本來是要作為雙方對話的場所。雙方對話是基于這樣一個(gè)假設(shè)：雙方都清楚地知道塔利班不可能攻下并守住喀布爾及北方地區(qū)；同時(shí)，在承認(rèn)塔利班是合法的政治力量之前，阿富汗南方地區(qū)也將永無寧日。

One danger in the Western disarray over Afghanistan is that the Taliban may begin to dream grandly again of restoring their Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.And in this ambition Afghanistan’s big neighbour, Pakistan, itself angry and disillusioned with the West, and still a vital source of support and sanctuary for the Taliban, might think it has an interest in encouraging them.西方國家在阿富汗現(xiàn)在面臨著一個(gè)混亂的局面，這對他們來說有一個(gè)隱憂：塔利班可能會異想天開地認(rèn)為他們又有機(jī)會復(fù)興他們的阿富汗伊斯蘭酋長國。仍然是塔利班的主要支持力量并為塔利班提供庇護(hù)的巴基斯坦已經(jīng)對西方相當(dāng)憤怒并且不抱有任何幻想。阿富汗旁邊這個(gè)舉足輕重的鄰國，可能會覺得自己在支持塔利班卷土重來的野心中確實(shí)有利可圖。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65224-1-1.html 譯者：Dezazer

[2012.03.17]Flavoursome research “味兒足”的研究

Matter and antimatter 物質(zhì)與反物質(zhì)

Flavoursome research “味兒足”的研究

Physicists are closing in on how matter differs from antimatter 物理學(xué)家們正攜手最終解釋物質(zhì)究竟如何與反物質(zhì)不同 Mar 17th 2012 | from the print edition

HOT on the heels of results from Fermilab, in America, which reported last week on an esoteric phenomenon called charge-conjugation/parity(CP)violation involving equally esoteric subatomic particles known as D0-mesons, a second research group, the Daya Bay Collaboration of more than 40 institutions, mainly from China and America, has found a related result involving neutrinos.CP violation is an asymmetry between matter and antimatter and the experiment, based at a complex of nuclear reactors 50km(30 miles)north of Hong Kong, has settled a longstanding puzzle that bears on the question of whether neutrinos, too, experience it.That, in turn, is related to the deeper question of why the universe is made of matter rather than having originally had equal amounts of matter and antimatter.If such a primordial equity had prevailed, the two would have annihilated each other, leaving a universe filled only with energy.上周，美國的費(fèi)米實(shí)驗(yàn)室（Fermilab）報(bào)告了涉及D0介子的CP破缺（電荷共軛/宇稱對稱性破缺）現(xiàn)象，這種現(xiàn)象連同這種亞原子粒子都不怎么為一般人所了解。還沒多久，另一個(gè)研究小組在中微子上發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)相關(guān)的實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果，這個(gè)名為大亞灣合作研究項(xiàng)目的研究小組是由主要來自美國和中國的40多家研究機(jī)構(gòu)組成的。CP破缺是物質(zhì)與反物質(zhì)之間的一種不對稱性。這個(gè)在香港以北50公里的核反應(yīng)堆綜合設(shè)施內(nèi)完成的實(shí)驗(yàn)，解開了一個(gè)有助于了解中微子是否也存在CP破缺的長久謎題。而這又聯(lián)系到一個(gè)更深層的問題：為什么世界是由物質(zhì)組成，而不是像初始時(shí)那樣存在等量的物質(zhì)與反物質(zhì)。如果這種原始的均勢在宇宙中存在，物質(zhì)與反物質(zhì)將會相互湮滅，留下一個(gè)僅僅充滿著能量的世界。

Strictly speaking, the Daya Bay experiment looked at antineutrinos rather than neutrinos.These particles are a by-product of nuclear fission, and the six reactors at Daya Bay and nearby Ling Ao turn them out in prodigious quantities.The idea was to see how many of these antineutrinos disappear before reaching the experiment’s main detector(pictured above), which is housed in an underground hall near the reactors.This, the team hoped, would help elucidate a phenomenon known as neutrino oscillation.嚴(yán)格來說，大亞灣這個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)觀察的是反中微子而不是中微子。他們是核裂變的副產(chǎn)品，大亞灣和附近的嶺澳核電站的六個(gè)反應(yīng)堆可以源源提供大量此類粒子。實(shí)驗(yàn)的想法是看看有多少反中微子在到達(dá)主探測器（見上圖，安放在反應(yīng)堆附近的地下大廳中）之前消失。研究小組此前是希望它可以幫助了解中微子振蕩這一現(xiàn)象。

Neutrinos(and antineutrinos)come in three “flavours”: electron-neutrinos, muon-neutrinos and tau-neutrinos.A given neutrino can, however, oscillate between these flavours.As a consequence, some of the electron-antineutrinos spewed out by the reactors were expected to morph into other sorts and thus escape detection by apparatus designed to count only electron-antineutrinos.And the researchers did indeed observe 6% fewer of the beasts than would have been the case if no oscillations had taken place.中微子（和反中微子）分為三種“味”：電子-中微子，μ介子-中微子和τ介子-中微子。一個(gè)指定的中微子仍然可以在這些“味”之間振蕩。因此，當(dāng)一部分從反應(yīng)堆噴射出來的電子-反中微子變成其他的“味”時(shí)，專門設(shè)計(jì)來探測電子-反中微子的儀器就探測不到這部分。實(shí)驗(yàn)中，研究人員確實(shí)觀測到這種詭異的粒子比沒有振蕩效應(yīng)情況下預(yù)測的少了6%。

The way neutrinos oscillate is described by three numbers called mixing angles, which determine how likely this spot-changing is for any pair of flavours.Two of the angles have been known for some time.The remaining one, theta-13, which governs the relationship between electron-and tau-neutrinos, has proved elusive.Last year two experiments, T2K in Japan and MINOS in America, found hints of what it might be.The results from Daya Bay have at last allowed it to be determined accurately.To many physicists’ relief, they have confirmed that it is not zero.This is crucial, because if it had been zero they would have no experimental purchase on a fourth parameter, called delta.中微子振蕩的方式可以由三個(gè)被稱為混合角的參數(shù)描述，以此可以確定任意兩種味之間“振蕩”發(fā)生的概率。其中的兩個(gè)混合角已經(jīng)知道有一段時(shí)間了。余下的一個(gè)描述電子-中微子和τ介子-中微子之間振蕩的θ13被證明是難以捉摸的。去年的兩個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)（日本的T2K和美國的MINOS）發(fā)現(xiàn)了找到這個(gè)參數(shù)可能值的跡象。而大亞灣這個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)的結(jié)果則終于使該參數(shù)得以精確測定。讓很多物理學(xué)家欣慰的是，這些結(jié)果確認(rèn)了這個(gè)參數(shù)不為零。這是很關(guān)鍵的，因?yàn)槿绻鼮榱悖蜎]有必要做實(shí)驗(yàn)觀測第四個(gè)參數(shù)δ了。

Delta is a measure of how much neutrinos feel CP violation.And CP violation in neutrinos is something theorists can parlay into oodles of universe-preserving matter-antimatter asymmetry.Experiments like those at Daya Bay, involving antineutrinos from reactors, cannot measure delta directly.But the collaboration’s result bodes well for those that can.These include T2K and MINOS, both of which use particle accelerators to whip up beams of muon-neutrinos and send them to detectors hundreds of kilometres away.δ用來量度中微子受到CP破缺影響的程度。目前理論認(rèn)為是“物質(zhì)-反物質(zhì)”之間的高不對稱性維持著物質(zhì)世界的穩(wěn)定，而中微子的CP破缺是理論物理學(xué)家用以研究這個(gè)不對稱性的有效途徑。大亞灣這類涉及反應(yīng)堆拋出的反中微子的實(shí)驗(yàn)，并不能直接測量δ。但是這個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)項(xiàng)目的結(jié)果給了那些可以測量出該參數(shù)的實(shí)驗(yàn)更多的信心。這些實(shí)驗(yàn)包括T2K和MINOS，它們都是利用粒子加速器把μ介子-中微子束加速并射向數(shù)百公里外的探測器。

T2K was shut down by the earthquake and tsunami which shook Japan a year ago, but it has been back in business since January.In America, meanwhile, MINOS is being replaced with a fancier experiment called NOvA, which will start collecting data in 2013.With luck, then, the matter-antimatter conundrum—and with it the reason anything exists at all—will not remain a mystery much longer.T2K由于日本的地震和海嘯而于一年前關(guān)閉了，今年一月又重新投入使用。在美國的MINOS也正在被名為NOvA的更厲害的實(shí)驗(yàn)所替代，新實(shí)驗(yàn)將于2013年開始采集數(shù)據(jù)。到那時(shí)如果運(yùn)氣好的話，“物質(zhì)-反物質(zhì)”的謎團(tuán)，連同它所能解釋的為什么現(xiàn)在居然有物質(zhì)存在的難題，將不再是個(gè)謎。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65222-1-1.html 譯者：darcher

[2012.03.17]A Singapore cemetery: Brown study 一座新加坡墳場 A Singapore cemetery 一座新加坡墳場

Brown study 深思布朗山

Citizens rally to the defence of the dead, and their own heritage 公民奮起捍衛(wèi)逝者的權(quán)益，以及自己的文化傳承 Mar 17th 2012 | SINGAPORE | from the print edition

Sikh: for now, ye shall find 錫克說：現(xiàn)在，還得尋見[注1]

THAT it has survived this long is a sort of miracle.In the middle of Singapore, just north of the Pan-Island Expressway, lies 0.9 square km(0.3 square miles)of lush greenery, birdsong, and 80,000-100,000 tombs.Bukit Brown, named after a British merchant who lived nearby in the 19th century, is one of the world’s biggest Chinese graveyards outside China.在新加坡中部泛島高速公路北側(cè)有一座蓋地0.9平方公里的墳場。這片郁郁蔥蔥，鳥語聲聲，共有八到十萬塚墓地的墳場能夠幸存至今不能不說是一種奇跡。該地以19世紀(jì)時(shí)住在附近的一位英國商人命名，叫作武吉布朗山[注2]，它是中國以外世界上最大的華人墓地。

A peaceful, rather magical place, it is frequented by strollers, joggers, cyclists and, especially at this time of year, just ahead of the Qing Ming grave-sweeping festival in early April, by the filial, equipped with brooms and with “ghost money” to burn in tribute to the dead.這是一個(gè)幽靜奇妙的地方，有很多散步者，跑步者和騎自行車者常來光顧。此外，特別是每年4月初清明掃墓時(shí)節(jié)之前，大量孝子孝孫們會帶著掃帚和冥錢前來祭祀逝者。

Some graves date back to the 1830s, or, as the tomb inscriptions have it, the reign of the Daoguang emperor, sixth of China’s Qing dynasty.That was not long after Sir Stamford Raffles claimed the island for the British.Here lie buried Singapore’s pioneers and its heroes—both of the war with Japan, and of the commercial struggles that have always been the island’s lifeblood.The biggest tomb holds Ong Sam Leong, who died in 1917, having made a fortune out of his monopoly on the supply of coolie labour to phosphate mines on Christmas Island.墳場里的一些墳?zāi)箍梢宰匪莸?9世紀(jì)30年代，換句話說，根據(jù)碑文是立于中國清朝第六位皇帝道光年間。當(dāng)時(shí)距斯坦福?萊佛士爵士[注3]將新加坡收歸英國版圖還沒過多久。這里沉睡著新加坡的先驅(qū)和英雄們，有的是和日本作戰(zhàn)時(shí)期的英雄，有的則是這個(gè)島國一直以來的命脈-商業(yè)斗爭中的豪強(qiáng)。其中最大的墳?zāi)箤儆?917年過世的王三龍。他當(dāng)年曾壟斷了向圣誕島上的磷礦輸送苦力勞工的業(yè)務(wù)，并以此發(fā)家致富。

Like many other graves, it is protected not just by statues of fierce beasts, golden boys and jade maidens, but also by models of imposing Sikh guards.And it has 24 friezes illustrating filial piety: the woman who suckles her mother-in-law rather than her hungry infant;the boy who digs a cave by his parents’ tomb to comfort them during thunderstorms;the son who tastes his father’s stool to ascertain his state of health.和很多其它墳?zāi)挂粯樱@座墳周圍不但有兇猛石獸，金童玉女保衛(wèi)，也放有威風(fēng)的錫克衛(wèi)士像[注4]。碑上還刻有二十四孝浮雕：乳姑不怠，聞雷泣墓，嘗糞憂心等等。

These days Bukit Brown is also the haunt of an unlikely assortment of activists: descendants, heritage enthusiasts and nature-lovers, all hoping to persuade the government not to drive a planned eight-lane road through this unique piece of Singapore’s history.The road’s final alignment is to be announced soon.如今武吉布朗山也是一些本應(yīng)互無瓜葛的活動分子共同心系的問題：這些人包括逝者后人，文化傳承熱衷分子還有自然愛好者。他們都希望勸服政府不要讓一條規(guī)劃中的八車道公路通過這片獨(dú)特的新加坡歷史保留地。該公路的最終線形將于近期公布。

Red-and-white plastic strips strung from poles mark the expected corridor.Numbered wooden pales mark graves likely to be in its path.The government’s Ministry of National Development says fewer than 5,000 will be affected, and all will be exhumed.在預(yù)計(jì)將要建造公路的位置兩邊立著柱子，之間系著紅白相間的塑料帶。對建造公路有妨礙的墳?zāi)苟急粯?biāo)出，旁邊插有帶著數(shù)字的木樁子。國家發(fā)展部宣布受到影響的墳?zāi)共坏轿迩ё@些墳?zāi)箤灰谱摺?/p>

But the road will slice Bukit Brown in two and, say enthusiasts, destroy its character.Eventually, it will be given over to housing.Singapore’s population has doubled in the past 30 years, to 5.2m, and is expected to increase to 6.5m by 2050.The government favours the living over the dead.但是活動分子認(rèn)為這條公路會把武吉布朗山一分為二，破壞其風(fēng)貌。最終，這塊地區(qū)將會被改建成住宅區(qū)。新加坡的人口在過去三十年里已經(jīng)翻了一倍，現(xiàn)在已達(dá)520萬，到2050年預(yù)計(jì)將會增加到650萬。對政府來說，活人當(dāng)然比死人重要。

Thanks to the internet, the energetic campaign to educate Singaporeans about Bukit Brown has put some pressure on the government.But fewer than 2,000 people have signed its petition.Bukit Brown really does need a miracle now.多虧了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，這項(xiàng)充滿活力，旨在讓新加坡人更了解武吉布朗山的運(yùn)動已經(jīng)在政府頭上施加了一定的壓力。但是目前只有不到2千人簽署了它對政府提出的請?jiān)浮，F(xiàn)在看來，要保留武吉布朗山確實(shí)需要一個(gè)奇跡。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65181-1-1.html 譯者：nayilus

[2012.03.10]Bandwagons and busts 從眾和災(zāi)難 Costs 成本

Bandwagons and busts 從眾和災(zāi)難

Nuclear plants are getting ever more expensive.But Asian countries may build them more cheaply 核電站變得越來越昂貴。但是亞洲國家建造核電站的成本可能較低

Mar 10th 2012 | from the print edition

A clear argument for nuclear power 這張照片很清楚地說明了應(yīng)該用核能的理由

IN HAIYANG, ON the northern Chinese coast, and at Sanmen, farther south, an international consortium led by Westinghouse is well into building two AP1000s, with two more in the works;China plans eventually to have 12 split between the two sites.If the plans go ahead, each site will have as much capacity connected to the grid as the whole of Nigeria has today.Yet the two plants represent only a small fraction of China’s nuclear ambitions.Its pre-Fukushima plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 10GW to 80GW by 2020 may fall behind schedule, but China still looks certain to build more new nuclear plants than any other country over the decade to come—and possibly more than all others combined.由西屋電氣公司帶領(lǐng)的一支國際聯(lián)隊(duì)正在位于中國北方的海陽以及更南方的三門兩個(gè)沿海城市里建造核電站。兩座AP1000反應(yīng)堆的建造已經(jīng)有了相當(dāng)進(jìn)展，此外這批工程還將再建造兩座反應(yīng)堆。中國計(jì)劃最終將在這兩個(gè)地點(diǎn)建立共12座反應(yīng)堆。如果一切照計(jì)劃行事，這兩個(gè)地點(diǎn)將擁有的核電容量各自都能超過今天尼日利亞全國電網(wǎng)的發(fā)電容量。但是兩座電廠只代表了中國核電抱負(fù)的一小部分。中國在福島事件之前訂立的計(jì)劃是在2020年前將核電容量從10千兆瓦提高到80千兆瓦。這一計(jì)劃現(xiàn)在可能無法按時(shí)達(dá)成了，但是在接下來的十年里，中國建造的新核電廠肯定比其它國家都要多，甚至可能比所有其它國家新建的核電廠總數(shù)還要多。

By nuclear standards, this is a big deal;China will add more nuclear capacity in those ten years than France has in total.But for China itself it is less big;nuclear will go from generating less than 2% of the country’s electricity to less than 5%.Ming Sung, who works for the Clean Air Task Force, an American think-tank in Beijing, points out that China is not betting on nuclear;it is betting on everything that offers an alternative to coal.China consumes half the world’s annual coal output, and has the supply problems, dirty air and huge death toll(hundreds of thousands a year from respiratory diseases)that go with it.Junda Lin of the China Greentech Initiative points out that the 2020 target for nuclear has to be seen in the context of a 200GW target for wind and an extra 100GW of hydropower.The idea is to try everything and see what works best.以核電標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來看，這可是個(gè)大工程。中國在這十年里增加的核電容量將會超過法國全國的總核電容量。但是這對中國來說就并不算大。核電容量將會從全國總發(fā)電容量的不到2%上升至不到5%。美國智囊集團(tuán)“凈化空氣任務(wù)組織”駐北京的孫嗣敏指出中國并不是在核能上下注，而是在所有可以代替煤的能源形式上都下注。中國現(xiàn)在消耗世界煤炭年產(chǎn)量的一半，同時(shí)也面對與之俱來煤源供應(yīng)、空氣污染和大量死亡者（每年因呼吸道疾病死亡者有幾十萬人）這些問題。中國綠色科技組織的林駿達(dá)指出之前定下的2020年核能目標(biāo)要和200千兆瓦的風(fēng)力發(fā)電和增加100千兆瓦的水力發(fā)電這些目標(biāo)放在一起看。現(xiàn)在的思路是要嘗試所有發(fā)電手段，看看哪一種最適合。

Most of the plants China is currently building are generation IIs derived from a French design it bought in the 1980s and now built by Chinese companies, but there are also Russian PWRs in Tianwan and Canadian Candus in Qinshan.In Taishan two EPRs are being built by Areva and the China Guangdong Nuclear Group, which has a long-standing relationship with the French industrial base from which its domestic designs ultimately derive.And then there are the AP1000s.Westinghouse won that contract in large part by promising to transfer the technology in full to local companies, but it hopes that its expertise will allow it to keep a prominent role in the Chinese industry.中國現(xiàn)在在建造的大多數(shù)核電站都是第二代核電站，是從80年代購買的一種法國核電站設(shè)計(jì)衍生出來的，由中國公司建造。不過在田灣也有俄羅斯的壓水反應(yīng)堆（PWR），秦山核電站內(nèi)也有加拿大氘鈾核反應(yīng)堆（Candu）。在臺山核電站內(nèi)阿海琺公司和中國廣東核電集團(tuán)則正在合作建造兩座歐洲壓水堆（EPR）。中廣核與法國工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)有長期的合作關(guān)系，其國內(nèi)核電廠設(shè)計(jì)說到底是從法國借鑒來的。另外還有AP1000，西屋電氣能獲標(biāo)這次工程有很大一部分原因在于其承諾將會把核電廠技術(shù)完全轉(zhuǎn)移給本地公司，不過西屋電氣希望自己在核電方面的專業(yè)水準(zhǔn)能讓自己繼續(xù)保持住在中國核能行業(yè)內(nèi)的領(lǐng)頭地位。

After Fukushima the state council stopped approving new power stations and called for re-evaluations of the seismic and flooding risks faced by those already built and under construction.A new law expected later this year will take nuclear regulation away from the National Development and Reform Commission, the state’s industrial planners, and hand it over to the environment ministry, thus splitting the role of cheerleading from that of invigilation.Part of what passes for the Chinese government’s legitimacy comes from the perception that it can manage large-scale technology well.The backlash against China’s high-speed train programme after last year’s accident at Wenzhou, which provoked criticism and anger of a sort that Chinese leaders fear, would be dwarfed by what could be expected from a nuclear accident.在福島事件之后，國務(wù)院停止對新核電站的批準(zhǔn)，并要求對那些已經(jīng)建好及尚在建造中的核電站面對洪水地震時(shí)的安全隱患進(jìn)行一次再評估。今年稍后，一項(xiàng)新的法律將會把核監(jiān)管的責(zé)任從中國的工業(yè)計(jì)劃局－國家發(fā)展和改革委員會轉(zhuǎn)移到環(huán)境部手中。這么一來就把給核能搖旗吶喊的角色和對核能監(jiān)察管制的角色分離開來。中國政府的正統(tǒng)性有一部份來自于公眾認(rèn)為其能良好管理大規(guī)模技術(shù)的看法。去年的溫州事故引發(fā)了中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人深以為懼的公眾抨擊和憤怒，造成人們對中國高鐵項(xiàng)目的激烈反對。但比起一旦發(fā)生核事故災(zāi)難可能引起的民眾反應(yīng)，這是小巫見大巫了。

A sincerely self-interested desire to avoid accidents, though, will not necessarily translate into a model regulatory infrastructure.A safety culture of constant questioning will not be easy to instil.And China’s nuclear regulatory workforce is already more stretched than that of other big economies in terms of employees per gigawatt under regulation.但是，出于自身利益而由衷地希望避免災(zāi)難并不一定能就能產(chǎn)生優(yōu)秀的監(jiān)管基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。要培養(yǎng)一種不斷質(zhì)疑的安全文化不是一件易事。而以監(jiān)管每一萬兆瓦核能的平均人數(shù)來看，中國的核能監(jiān)管人力已經(jīng)比很多大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體更為短缺了。

Beside the seaside 臨海之濱

Another new law will outline future plans for the industry.Some expect China’s nuclear boom to slow down in the wake of Fukushima, with new capacity perhaps reaching only 40GW by 2020.And China could get proportionally more AP1000s and fewer of its own home-made designs, the safety of which may be less assured.All China’s current plants are by the sea, both because it is convenient for cooling and because that is where the demand is.There have been plans for nuclear plants inland, cooled by rivers, but concerns about the availability of water in drier years to come and the risk of contaminating it may cause these plans to be shelved.另一項(xiàng)新法案將會概述核能行業(yè)未來的計(jì)劃。有人預(yù)計(jì)中國的核繁榮在福島事件之后將會放慢腳步，其2020年的核電容量可能只會達(dá)到40千兆瓦。中國也可能會在建造核電站時(shí)加大AP1000所占的比例，減少安全水準(zhǔn)沒有那么可靠的國產(chǎn)核電站設(shè)計(jì)。中國現(xiàn)有的所有核電站都是位于沿海，這既是因?yàn)檠睾８子谔峁├鋮s，也是因?yàn)檠睾Ｊ请娏π枨笞畲蟮牡胤健Ｒ苍羞^在內(nèi)地建造利用江河進(jìn)行冷卻的核電站計(jì)劃，但是對旱年冷卻水可能會出現(xiàn)短缺的憂慮，加上核電站可能會造成污染的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也許是這些計(jì)劃最終沒有落實(shí)的原因。

China’s expansion into nuclear power is hardly a market-driven development, but it helps that the plants involved look comparatively cheap.There are two ways of measuring the cost of a nuclear power plant: the “overnight” cost, which counts up the material and labour that goes into a new plant as if it had all been purchased simultaneously, and the “l(fā)evellised” cost, which is a measure of the total amount of energy a plant provides over its life divided by the total expenditure—construction, operation, maintenance, fuel and, eventually, decommissioning.One is the cost of the capacity to produce electricity, the other the cost of the electricity produced.The 2010 edition of the IEA/NEA Costs of Generating Electricity study puts overnight costs for Chinese generation II plants at $1,700 for every kilowatt of capacity, giving a gigawatt plant a price tag of less than $2 billion.For the AP1000s the estimated costs are higher($2,300/kW), and by the time the projects are finished they may be higher still;these are the first AP1000s being built anywhere, so its wise to expect surprises.Schedules are being stretched, and the Chinese contractors for key parts of the third and fourth AP1000s are falling behind a bit, according to Westinghouse.中國大規(guī)模開發(fā)核能幾乎算不上是市場驅(qū)動的一項(xiàng)發(fā)展，但是其建造的核電站相對較便宜確實(shí)對發(fā)展是有所幫助的。一座核電站的成本有兩種方法可以測量：“隔夜”成本，即算入所有建造新電站的材料和勞力成本，就好像所有這些都是同時(shí)購買的一樣；還有一種方法是“平準(zhǔn)”成本，即測量核電站終生使用過程中提供的總電能，除以所有的總開銷，包括建造，運(yùn)作，維護(hù)，燃料以及最終廢棄的全部成本。前者衡量發(fā)電容量的成本，后者衡量實(shí)際發(fā)電的成本。2010版本的國際能源署/核能署發(fā)電成本報(bào)告中將中國第二代核電廠的隔夜成本定在每千瓦容量1700美元，這意味著一座容量為1千兆瓦的電廠價(jià)格為20億美元不到。而AP1000電廠的估計(jì)成本要更高（每千瓦2300美元），等到項(xiàng)目完成時(shí)它的實(shí)際成本可能會進(jìn)一步上升。在中國建造的這幾座反應(yīng)堆是世界上第一批建造的AP1000，所以工程中出現(xiàn)和預(yù)計(jì)不符的現(xiàn)象是很正常的。工程進(jìn)度目前正在不斷延后，根據(jù)西屋電氣，為第三和第四座AP1000提供關(guān)鍵部件的一些中國供應(yīng)商進(jìn)度已有點(diǎn)落后了。

Still, almost anywhere else in the world, these figures would today be a source of envy—or incredulity.When companies were beginning to pitch generation III reactors ten years ago, they claimed that better, standardised designs and improved construction techniques would make them both safer and cheaper.In Western countries that second claim has gone by the board.British studies in 2004, 2006 and 2008 put the overnight cost of new PWRs at $2,233/kW, then $2,644, then $3,000.Estimates from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT)rose from $2,208/kW to $4,000 over roughly the same time.The NEA quotes costs for an EPR in Belgium(now cancelled)at $5,400 per kW.Capacity fired by gas turbines, for comparison, can cost less than a fifth of that.即使這樣，在世界上任何其它地方，現(xiàn)今核電廠成本可以達(dá)到這種數(shù)字都會招來嫉妒，或者懷疑。一些公司在十年前開始推廣第三代反應(yīng)堆時(shí)，它們宣稱更優(yōu)秀的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化設(shè)計(jì)，加上更先進(jìn)的建造技術(shù)可以讓這些電廠不但更安全，也更便宜。在西方國家，這第二個(gè)賣點(diǎn)已經(jīng)被徹底粉碎了。英國在2004，2006和2008年的三份研究報(bào)告給出的新型PWR的隔夜成本分別是每千瓦2233美元，2644美元和3000美元。麻省理工學(xué)院（MIT）的估價(jià)則在大約同一時(shí)期內(nèi)從每千瓦2208美元上升到了4000美元。核能署為比利時(shí)的一座EPR（現(xiàn)在已取消）的估價(jià)達(dá)到每千瓦5400美元。相比之下，燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)發(fā)電單位容量的成本可以低于其五分之一。

Real construction costs, which include the cost of borrowing the money needed, are even higher than overnight costs.Construction costs for the two AP1000s that Progress Energy has planned for its Levy site in Florida have recently been reported at about $20 billion, which works out at about $9,000 per kW and strongly suggests that the reactors will not be built.實(shí)際建造成本也包括所需貸款的借貸成本，這么一來就比隔夜成本還要更高。進(jìn)步能源公司計(jì)劃在其佛羅里達(dá)州萊維縣電廠建造兩臺AP1000反應(yīng)堆，最近該建造成本據(jù)報(bào)達(dá)到大約200億美元，折合下來就是每千瓦9000美元，這意味著這兩個(gè)反應(yīng)堆很有可能被取消。

Cost escalation has been the rule throughout the industry’s history.In the late 1960s what is now called the “great bandwagon market” took off in America.Companies selling plants they had no real experience of building offered fixed prices to make them attractive.Utilities keen to reduce their reliance on coal in an age of clean-air standards took the bait.As orders flooded in, costs started to climb.Projects meant to be completed in years dragged on for more than a decade, in part because of new environmental concerns, in part because designs were revised as lessons were learned.At the Vogtle plant, in Georgia, a pair of reactors originally priced at $660m in 1971 came in at $8.87 billion 16 years later.Half the projects ended up cancelled.成本飆升在核能行業(yè)內(nèi)一直以來都是很普遍的。在60年代末，美國核能行業(yè)出現(xiàn)了現(xiàn)在被稱為“大型從眾市場”[注]的現(xiàn)象。公司在出售自己并沒有實(shí)際建造經(jīng)驗(yàn)的電站時(shí)提出了固定價(jià)格吸引買家。面對清潔空氣標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)代的來臨，公用企業(yè)急于減少對煤炭的依賴，紛紛上鉤了。隨著大量訂單涌入，成本開始向上攀爬。本應(yīng)幾年完工的項(xiàng)目拖了十幾年，有一部分原因是來自新的環(huán)境顧慮，也有一部分原因是隨著在實(shí)際建造中學(xué)到經(jīng)驗(yàn)電站設(shè)計(jì)被不斷的改進(jìn)。喬治亞州的沃格特勒核電站在1971年訂造，一開始標(biāo)價(jià)6億6000萬美元的兩座反應(yīng)堆最終花了16年才建好，總成本88.7億美元。有一半的項(xiàng)目最終都被取消了。

The French experience is often quoted as a positive counter-history to the American mess.France had long been keen on energy security.When it made PWRs based on a Westinghouse design a national priority in the early 1970s, it brought a thorough-minded discipline to the matter, building its capacity region by region, improving the designs as it went along and increasing the size of its plants to reap economies of scale.Having the same contractor and customer for so many plants allowed the system to learn from mistakes and to refit older plants to newer standards.Even so, according to calculations by Arnulf Grübler of IIASA, a think-tank near Vienna, each of the six designs France has fielded has cost more per kilowatt than the previous one had.He estimates that the four reactors built in the 1990s cost between $2,267 and $3,252/kW in 2010 dollars, more than twice the real cost of capacity built in the 1970s and early 1980s.The first two EPRs to be built in Europe, in France and Finland, have both gone extravagantly over schedule and budget.法國的核能發(fā)展史經(jīng)常被作為一個(gè)正面教材，拿來和美國混亂的核能發(fā)展史做對比。法國從很久以前就開始關(guān)注能源安全問題。70年代初，法國將基于西屋電氣設(shè)計(jì)的PWR開發(fā)作為國家重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目。法國在這個(gè)項(xiàng)目上引入了非常徹底的紀(jì)律作風(fēng)，一個(gè)地區(qū)接著一個(gè)地區(qū)有條不紊地建造核電容量，在這個(gè)過程中同步改進(jìn)其設(shè)計(jì)，并擴(kuò)大電站規(guī)模來達(dá)到規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)。這么多電站都是同一個(gè)顧客，同一個(gè)承包商，這讓整個(gè)核電系統(tǒng)可以從錯(cuò)誤中學(xué)習(xí)到經(jīng)驗(yàn)，將舊的電站改修來滿足新的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。即使這樣，根據(jù)“國際應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)分析學(xué)院”（維也納附近的智囊機(jī)構(gòu)）的阿努爾夫?格魯伯勒計(jì)算，法國在實(shí)際建造中用到的六個(gè)電站設(shè)計(jì)論單位千瓦的成本，每一個(gè)都比前一個(gè)更貴。他估計(jì)90年代的四座反應(yīng)堆成本折算成2010年美元的話介于每千瓦2267美元到3252美元之間，這是70年代和80年代初建造的核電容量實(shí)際成本的兩倍多。歐洲最先建造的兩座EPR分別是在法國和芬蘭建造的，兩者完工日期都大大延后，且大幅度超出了預(yù)算。

A decade ago the nuclear industry hoped that the combination of safe, low-cost generation III reactors and governments eager to encourage lower carbon-dioxide emissions would lead to a “nuclear renaissance”.In the West those low costs have failed to materialise, so the renaissance is largely stalled.Whereas a few years ago Britain was talking of building eight new reactors to replace its ageing fleet, only two are likely to make it in the near term.Steve Thomas, an economist at the University of Greenwich, argues that even with a fixed carbon price of €36/tonne and a guaranteed price for the electricity(both features of a currently planned re-regulation of Britain’s energy market;today’s EU carbon price is under €10), those plans remain vulnerable.十年之前核能行業(yè)希望安全廉價(jià)的第三代反應(yīng)堆和急于鼓勵(lì)降低二氧化碳排放的政府兩者結(jié)合起來，將會帶來一場“核能復(fù)興”。在西方低廉成本的保證并沒有兌現(xiàn)，因此這種復(fù)興基本上被擱置了。幾年前英國曾談?wù)撘ㄔ彀俗碌姆磻?yīng)堆來替換其老化的核能設(shè)施，但是現(xiàn)在只有兩座可能在近期建造。格林威治大學(xué)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯蒂夫?托馬斯認(rèn)為即使把碳價(jià)格鎖定在每噸36歐元，同時(shí)保證電力價(jià)格（目前有一項(xiàng)計(jì)劃要對英國能源市場重新實(shí)施監(jiān)管，這兩項(xiàng)都是該計(jì)劃的組成部份，現(xiàn)在歐盟的碳價(jià)格不到10歐元），這些核能計(jì)劃要想實(shí)施還是有重重問題。

In a capital-intensive industry such as the nuclear one, the cost of capital is always crucial, and higher overnight costs magnify the problem.Calculations of the levellised costs of energy by UBS, a bank, show clearly that the cost of capital dominates the picture.For a plant costing $5,500 per kW, capital makes up 75% of total costs in Europe and America.UBS reckons the levellised cost of such a plant in Europe is 11% higher than the cost of a gas plant.It would take a quintupling of the carbon price to wipe out that differential.And those calculations assume that it is as easy to borrow to finance a nuclear plant, with all its uncertainties and regulatory risk, as it is to finance a gas plant, which is probably unrealistic.在像核能這樣一個(gè)資本密集的行業(yè)內(nèi)，資本成本一向都是很關(guān)鍵的，較高的隔夜成本將會把問題擴(kuò)大化。瑞士銀行對能源平準(zhǔn)成本的計(jì)算清楚顯示資本成本占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。要建一座每千瓦需要5500美元的核電站，在歐洲和美國資本占所有成本的75%。瑞士銀行認(rèn)為如果就平準(zhǔn)成本來看，這樣的電站在歐洲的成本比天然氣發(fā)電站成本高11%。碳價(jià)要翻五倍才能抵銷這一價(jià)格差異。而且這些計(jì)算都假設(shè)不管建造的是核電站還是天然氣發(fā)電站，要為兩者借貸募資是一樣容易的。考慮到建造核電站有著大量不確定性，再加上監(jiān)管風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這個(gè)假設(shè)似乎不太實(shí)際。

Step on the gas 加大油門

In eastern Europe, where Russian dominance of gas markets is a political issue and electricity markets are still quite regulated, governments may consider such a differential acceptable.The Czech Republic is about to tender for new generation III PWRs, and Poland has plans along those lines too.But in America things look very different.Asked if Fukushima put America’s nuclear renaissance on ice, Ernest Moniz of MIT replies succinctly: “No.Shale gas did.” For all the production incentives, loan guarantees and indemnity for costs due to regulatory change offered by government, the sharp drop in gas prices caused by new sources of supply ruled out new nuclear plants in any market where the two energy sources compete freely.According to UBS, the advantage of gas over nuclear in America is roughly twice what it is in Europe.在東歐，俄羅斯在天然氣市場上的主導(dǎo)地位是一個(gè)政治問題，而且電力市場的監(jiān)管程度依然非常高。這么一來東歐政府可能會覺得這樣的差價(jià)是可以接受的。捷克馬上就要進(jìn)行新的第三代PWR建筑投標(biāo)，波蘭也有類似的計(jì)劃。但是在美國情況則非常不同。在被問到福島事件是否凍結(jié)了美國的核復(fù)興時(shí)，MIT的俄尼斯特?莫尼茲給出了一個(gè)言簡意賅的回答：“不，那是頁巖氣干的”。盡管有政府提供的各種生產(chǎn)激勵(lì)，借貸擔(dān)保以及為因?yàn)楸O(jiān)管政策改變造成的損失進(jìn)行賠償，核能還是敵不過天然氣。因?yàn)樾鹿?yīng)源的出現(xiàn)，天然氣的價(jià)格大幅下降。在任何這兩種能源自由競爭的市場里，廉價(jià)的天然氣都徹底排除了興建新核電站的可能。根據(jù)瑞士銀行的分析，在美國天然氣相對核能的優(yōu)勢大致比歐洲要高一倍。

John Rowe, CEO of Exelon, an energy company that has ten nuclear power plants in its portfolio, says that companies like his no longer have any reason to build nuclear plants.All plans to build nuclear plants in parts of America where the electricity market has been deregulated are coming to naught.Some American plants will still be built, but only in the south-east, where regulators allow the cost of increasing a utility’s asset base to be passed on directly—indeed pre-emptively—to its captive customers.Thus electricity consumers in Georgia are already paying for two new AP1000s which in February got clearance from the NRC to complement the two reactors at Vogtle.In Sumner, South Carolina, two more AP1000s are under contract.Those four will probably be all the renaissance America sees for some time.愛克斯龍能源公司旗下目前有十座核電站。其首席執(zhí)行官約翰?羅伊認(rèn)為像愛克斯龍這樣的公司已經(jīng)沒有什么理由繼續(xù)建造核電站了。在美國所有那些電力市場監(jiān)管已經(jīng)被解除的地方，建造核電站的計(jì)劃都無疾而終。美國還是有一些核電站正在建造之中，但是這僅發(fā)生在東南部，那里的電力監(jiān)管使得公用企業(yè)可以把增加資產(chǎn)基礎(chǔ)的成本直接（實(shí)際上是預(yù)先）轉(zhuǎn)移給那些無法切換公用供應(yīng)商的顧客們。因此喬治亞州的電力用戶所付的電費(fèi)中已經(jīng)包含了將要建造的兩座新AP1000的費(fèi)用。這兩座反應(yīng)堆將加入沃格特勒核電站已有的兩座反應(yīng)堆行列。2月核管理委員會對該工程進(jìn)行了批準(zhǔn)。南卡羅來納州薩姆納市訂購了兩座AP1000。這四座很可能就是很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)美國核能復(fù)興的全部成員了。

If the West could build new reactors as cheaply as China can, things would look different.That it cannot is in part due to labour costs.But the Chinese must have other advantages too.The levellised costs of modern Chinese coal-fired power stations are lower than the competition’s even when the power stations are not built in China.The same is true for cement works;Chinese companies operating outside China cannot build them as cheaply as they do at home, but they still easily beat the international competition.如果西方國家可以以和中國一樣的低成本建造反應(yīng)堆，那么情況就會大不一樣。它們做不到的部份原因在于勞工成本。但中國公司一定也有其它優(yōu)勢。中國的現(xiàn)代燃煤電站即使在海外建造，其平準(zhǔn)成本還是比競爭對手低。水泥工廠也是一樣的。在海外運(yùn)作的中國公司建造的水泥工廠雖然成本比在國內(nèi)建造的要高，但還是比國際競爭對手要便宜得多。

Further evidence that a different industrial approach can cut costs comes from South Korea.Like Japan, the country has little by way of indigenous energy supplies, and it too decided on nuclear power to solve that problem and bring new technological skills to its industrial base.It gets some 30% of its electricity from nuclear plants, much the same as Japan did before Fukushima, and more than any large economy other than France.In 2010 KEPCO, the South Korean power company, sold its reactors overseas for the first time, beating the French to a contract in the United Arab Emirates;at home its overnight costs for such generation II reactors are calculated at just over $1,500/kW.使用不同的工業(yè)方法可以減少成本的進(jìn)一步證據(jù)來自韓國。和日本一樣，韓國幾乎沒有本土能源，它也決定要依靠核能來解決這個(gè)問題，同時(shí)在其工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)內(nèi)引入新的技術(shù)技能。韓國30%的電力來自于核電站。這個(gè)比例和福島事件之前的日本相仿，比除了法國外任何其它大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體都要高。2010年韓國電力公司第一次將其反應(yīng)堆遠(yuǎn)銷海外，在爭奪阿聯(lián)酋的一份合同時(shí)擊敗了法國同行。在國內(nèi)韓國電力公司這類第二代反應(yīng)堆的隔夜成本據(jù)計(jì)算大約只有每千瓦1500美元出頭一點(diǎn)。

The true costs in South Korean business can be hard to make out.It would not be at all surprising if, working abroad for the first time and having been keenly competitive in its bidding, KEPCO failed to deliver the UAE reactors on budget.And given that nuclear prices have gone up everywhere else, it is fair to expect that they will do so to some extent in Asia, too.But if China and South Korea can build reactors abroad at prices not much higher than those at home, nuclear may see its fortunes tick up elsewhere, argues David Victor, of the University of California.Both Westinghouse and EDF have plans for new reactors in the export market that would be designed and sold in collaboration with Chinese partners.Russia is keen to export PWRs too, but its costs are not clear.韓國企業(yè)真正投入的成本是很難計(jì)算的。第一次在海外運(yùn)作，加上韓國電力在競標(biāo)時(shí)把價(jià)格壓得很低，它如果最終無法按預(yù)算完成這些阿聯(lián)酋反應(yīng)堆并不會是一件很讓人驚訝的事。考慮到核電站造價(jià)在全世界其它各地都已上升，認(rèn)為它在亞洲也會有一定程度的上升是很合乎情理的。但是加州大學(xué)的大衛(wèi)?維克多認(rèn)為如果中國和韓國在海外建造反應(yīng)堆的成本比國內(nèi)高不了太多，那么也許核能會在其它地方獲得青睞。西屋電氣和法國電力都有計(jì)劃和中國合作方一起設(shè)計(jì)銷售新反應(yīng)堆以供出口。俄羅斯也很熱衷于出口PWR，但是其成本目前還不是很清楚。

Inviting the Chinese to come in and build a nuclear plant is an unlikely step for a Western government(though the South Koreans are bidding on a Finnish contract).Some developing countries, though, may be interested.This is a matter of concern for backers of the American nuclear industry with an eye to national security issues, such as Pete Domenici, a former senator.If America is not engaged in the market, how can it use its influence to deter proliferation? 西方政府不太可能邀請中國公司來自己國家建造核電站（雖然韓國公司目前在競標(biāo)一座芬蘭核電站）。但是一些發(fā)展中國家可能會有興趣。對于支持美國核能行業(yè)，同時(shí)又關(guān)心國家安全問題的人，像是前參議員彼德?多梅尼西來說，這是個(gè)很大的問題。如果美國對核能市場都漠不關(guān)心，那么美國要怎么用自己的影響力來阻止核擴(kuò)散呢？

And it will indeed have less scope for such influence.But even at Chinese prices, nuclear energy is expensive compared with coal, and if other countries gain easier access to gas, as America did, that will reduce demand too.Vietnam is enthusiastic about nuclear reactors;other Asian countries, especially those in tectonically active places—such as the Philippines and Indonesia—may be less keen than they were before the great tsunami.South Africa is talking of buying nuclear reactors.India has big plans on paper, but a law that makes the designers(rather than the operators)of power stations liable in case of accidents gets in the way(and buying Chinese reactors might be anathema anyway).There is interest in the Middle East, but as Charles Ebinger of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, points out, the countries talking about buying nuclear power in response to runaway electricity demand might do better to curb their handsome consumer subsidies.They might also do well to invest in alternative energy.The sun’s nuclear reactor has been going for 4.5 billion years, and extracting power from it is getting cheaper every year.美國阻止核擴(kuò)散的影響力范圍將來還會更窄。但是即使以中國的造價(jià)來看，核能和煤比起來還是過于昂貴。如果其它國家也像美國那樣獲得更輕松的天然氣來源，這也會降低對核能的需求。越南很熱衷于核反應(yīng)堆。其它的亞洲國家，尤其是那些位于板塊活動地區(qū)的國家，像是菲律賓和印尼對核反應(yīng)堆的熱衷可能已不如大海嘯之前了。南非正在談?wù)撘徺I新的核反應(yīng)堆。印度也有一些大型的紙上計(jì)劃，但是印度有一條法律要求萬一事故發(fā)生，核電站的設(shè)計(jì)方（而不是運(yùn)作方）需要負(fù)責(zé)，這可能阻礙了核電的發(fā)展。另外印度可能本來就對向中國購買核反應(yīng)堆非常反感。中東對核電很感興趣，但是智囊機(jī)構(gòu)布魯金斯學(xué)院的查爾斯?俄賓格指出：對于那些在談?wù)撡徺I核能以應(yīng)付大幅飆升的用電需求的國家來說，減少它們高昂的消費(fèi)者補(bǔ)貼也許是更好的辦法。投資替代能源也可能是不錯(cuò)的作法。太陽內(nèi)部的核反應(yīng)堆已經(jīng)運(yùn)作了45億年了，而且隨著時(shí)間過去從它那兒提取能量正在變得越來越便宜。

譯者注

Bandwagon effect漢密爾頓說，對中國購物者進(jìn)行教育，告訴他們交易背后的血腥，能對保護(hù)野生動物起到積極作用。目前在中國正有這樣一場公益廣告戰(zhàn)役已經(jīng)打響，他們由一些中國名人來發(fā)起號召，比如籃球明星姚明，斯諾克運(yùn)動員丁俊暉，請求人們不要購買瀕臨滅絕的動物的產(chǎn)品。他們說，“沒有買賣，就沒有殺戮。”

http://ecocn.org/thread-64947-1-1.html 譯者：songz2000

[2012.03.10]Creation story 創(chuàng)造的故事 The history of computing 計(jì)算機(jī)史

Creation story 創(chuàng)造的故事

Computing’s long and twisted past 計(jì)算機(jī)漫長而又曲折的過去 Mar 10th 2012 | from the print edition

Turing’s Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe.By George Dyson.Pantheon;401 pages;$29.95.Allen Lane;￡25.Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk 《圖靈 [注]大教堂：數(shù)字世界的起源》。喬治?戴森（George Dyson）著。美國萬神廟出版社，售價(jià)29.95美元；英國阿倫?雷恩出版社，售價(jià)25英鎊。Amazon.com與Amazon.co.uk網(wǎng)上有售。

“I AM thinking about something much more important than bombs,” John von Neumann remarked in 1946.“I am thinking about computers.” The Hungarian-born mathematical genius knew that weapons and computers were closely intertwined.During the second world war computers had been built to crack codes(Colossus, in Britain)and calculate artillery firing tables(ENIAC, in America).But these were dedicated machines built to perform specific tasks.“我正在考慮一些遠(yuǎn)比炸彈重要的東西，”約翰?馮?諾依曼1946年這樣說，“我正在考慮計(jì)算機(jī)。”這位生于匈牙利的數(shù)學(xué)天才知道，武器與計(jì)算機(jī)緊密相關(guān)。人們在二戰(zhàn)期間建造了計(jì)算機(jī)來破譯密碼（如英國的Colossus計(jì)算機(jī)）與計(jì)算炮隊(duì)火力表（如美國的ENIAC計(jì)算機(jī)）。但這些是為專項(xiàng)任務(wù)建造的專用計(jì)算機(jī)。

Von Neumann dreamed of building a far more flexible and powerful general-purpose computer, the theoretical capabilities of which had been determined in the 1930s by Alan Turing, a British mathematician.As the cold war began, along came the perfect opportunity: the hydrogen bomb, whose construction would require detailed mathematical modelling.Von Neumann did a deal with his American military paymasters.They got their bomb, and the scientists got their computer, a key ancestor of all modern machines.The subsequent explosion of computing changed the world.馮?諾依曼幻想著制造一臺靈活性與功能都要強(qiáng)大得多的通用計(jì)算機(jī)。這種計(jì)算機(jī)的理論性能是由英國數(shù)學(xué)家阿倫?圖靈在20世紀(jì)30年代確定的。冷戰(zhàn)的開始帶來了一個(gè)絕好的機(jī)會：制造氫彈需要建立詳盡的數(shù)學(xué)模型。馮?諾依曼與美國軍需主管達(dá)成了一項(xiàng)協(xié)議。最后，軍方得到了炸彈，而科學(xué)家們得到計(jì)算機(jī)——所有現(xiàn)代計(jì)算機(jī)的關(guān)鍵始祖。計(jì)算能力隨后的爆炸性發(fā)展改變了整個(gè)世界。

As George Dyson explains in “Turing’s Cathedral”, von Neumann was just as excited by the other possibilities opened up by computers, from artificial life to weather forecasting.But the hydrogen-bomb project offered him the freedom and the money to build a new type of computer: a “stored-program” machine that could be reconfigured quickly to perform different tasks by changing its software, rather than rewiring its hardware.

第四篇：濟(jì)瀆路學(xué)校工作匯報(bào)

濟(jì)瀆路學(xué)校學(xué)校文化建設(shè)匯報(bào)

---與成尚榮教授溝通材料

一、濟(jì)源市情

濟(jì)源位于河南省西北部，北依太行與山西為鄰，南臨黃河與洛陽相望，西踞王屋與山西接壤，東臨華北平原，與焦作市相連，自古有“豫西北門戶”之稱。面積1931平方公里，有11個(gè)鎮(zhèn)、5個(gè)街道辦事處、人口68萬。曾是夏朝的都城，也是愚公移山、女媧補(bǔ)天故事的發(fā)祥地，是河南省城鄉(xiāng)一體化試點(diǎn)城市。

濟(jì)源在隋朝時(shí)（公元596年）設(shè)縣，1988年撤縣建市，1997年升格為省轄市，2003年被列入河南省“中原城市群”，2005年被列為河南省城鄉(xiāng)一體化試點(diǎn)城市，是中國優(yōu)秀旅游城市、國家衛(wèi)生城市、國家園林城市、全國創(chuàng)建文明城市工作先進(jìn)城市、中國人居環(huán)境范例獎(jiǎng)城市、全國雙擁模范城市、全國科技進(jìn)步先進(jìn)市、全國水土保持示范城市、全國市容市貌管理先進(jìn)市、全國籃球城市、全國體育先進(jìn)市、全國文化模范城市。

濟(jì)源是一座獨(dú)具魅力的山水城市，大山大河交相輝映，風(fēng)光秀麗。白居易稱贊“濟(jì)源山水好”，乾隆皇帝也評價(jià)為“名山勝跡”。

黃河小浪底融小浪底水庫、黃河三峽于一體，煙波浩渺，壯麗秀美，被評為“中國最具吸引力的地方”；

王屋山系道教名山，是中國古代九大名山之一，被列為道教十大洞天之首，號稱“天下第一洞天”，被評為國家AAAA級景區(qū)，世界地質(zhì)公園；

五龍口是國家AAAA級風(fēng)景名勝區(qū)和國家獼猴自然保護(hù)區(qū)； 九里溝山如詩如畫，因茶仙盧仝而名揚(yáng)天下；

濟(jì)瀆廟集唐宋元明清歷代建筑之精華，被譽(yù)為“中國古代建筑博物館”。

進(jìn)入“十一五”時(shí)期，濟(jì)源確定了率先在中原地區(qū)實(shí)現(xiàn)全面建設(shè)小康社會、率先在河南省實(shí)現(xiàn)城鄉(xiāng)一體化的奮斗目標(biāo)。現(xiàn)有中國500強(qiáng)企業(yè)1家（豫光集團(tuán)）、中國制造業(yè)500強(qiáng)企業(yè)2家（豫光集團(tuán)、濟(jì)源鋼鐵）；中國民營500強(qiáng)企業(yè)2家（濟(jì)源鋼鐵、萬洋冶煉）、中國民營制造業(yè)500強(qiáng)企業(yè)4家（濟(jì)源鋼鐵、萬洋冶煉、金利冶煉、金馬焦化）。

2011年，全市主營業(yè)務(wù)收入超億元企業(yè)達(dá)到128家，利稅超千萬元企業(yè)達(dá)到145家，2家企業(yè)擁有國家博士后工作站。

二、濟(jì)源教育

自80年代以來，濟(jì)源市委、市政府就逐年加大投資辦學(xué)力度，從村鎮(zhèn)投資為主的人民教育人民辦，到人民教育政府辦的財(cái)政投入，在全省較早實(shí)現(xiàn)了九年義務(wù)教育，較早對農(nóng)村學(xué)生實(shí)行“兩免一補(bǔ)”政策。濟(jì)源近年來也開始了對素質(zhì)教育的探索，中招時(shí)高中指標(biāo)下放到各個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)中心校，推行劃片招生，保證就近入學(xué)，生源師資平衡。但在社會及政府官員的思想中，分?jǐn)?shù)與升學(xué)率仍是辦學(xué)成功的指標(biāo)，許多政策得不到持久的執(zhí)行。重點(diǎn)學(xué)校、重點(diǎn)班、重智育輕德育、重考試名次輕身體素質(zhì)，等等，仍然普遍存在，成為不少學(xué)校、家長和社會難以走出的認(rèn)識誤區(qū)。課堂教學(xué)改革也轟轟烈烈，學(xué)洋思，學(xué)杜郎口，也立足本土進(jìn)行了一些有益的嘗試，但舉步維艱，束縛沉重，實(shí)效不大。今年，我市重點(diǎn)高中濟(jì)源一中8名學(xué)生考入北大、清華，市委市政府專門頒發(fā)了嘉獎(jiǎng)令，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)100萬元，無形中體現(xiàn)了對升學(xué)率的高度重視。

高中有社會各界對高考的要求，但對初中和小學(xué)來說，如何抓好教育的普及，如何使每個(gè)學(xué)生在每個(gè)方面都得到成長，則成為重要的問題。放棄多數(shù)學(xué)生，只抓少數(shù)尖子生的教育，放棄全面發(fā)展，只抓文化課學(xué)習(xí)的教育，放棄能力培養(yǎng)，一味灌輸?shù)慕逃疾皇俏覀兯枰慕逃疾皇墙逃l(fā)展的方向。

三、學(xué)校教育10年來之思考

課改10多年來，多數(shù)學(xué)校和教師都在繼續(xù)走應(yīng)試教育的路子，穿新鞋走老路。究其原因，固然有社會和政府官員的原因，但主要原因還在學(xué)校。朱洪秋教授說：“我們的德育出問題了，我們的智育出問題了。不輸在起跑線上，成為許多家長的共識，學(xué)前教育小學(xué)化，小學(xué)教育中學(xué)化，教育超越了學(xué)生發(fā)展的身心規(guī)律，連興趣特長的學(xué)習(xí)也被各類考級所代替。”2005年，錢學(xué)森說：“沒有哪一所大學(xué)培養(yǎng)的學(xué)生能和民國時(shí)期培養(yǎng)的人才一樣有成就，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)有的體制培養(yǎng)不出這樣的人才來。”這是當(dāng)前整個(gè)教育界必須解決的重要命題。

四、濟(jì)瀆路學(xué)校情況簡介

濟(jì)瀆路學(xué)校是我市新建的一所九年一貫制公立學(xué)校。占地面積177.23畝，建筑面積56030平方米，學(xué)校環(huán)境優(yōu)雅、設(shè)施完備。分小學(xué)、初中兩個(gè)校區(qū)，半封閉寄宿制管理。小學(xué)設(shè)8軌48個(gè)教學(xué)班，初中設(shè)12軌36個(gè)教學(xué)班，可容納4000名學(xué)生就讀。學(xué)校由市委、市政府投資1.1億元建成，社會期望值大，并且是在四所中小學(xué)的基礎(chǔ)上合并而成的新學(xué)校，教育理念的統(tǒng)一、人際關(guān)系的磨合都需要時(shí)間、需要努力。

文化是學(xué)校的靈魂，有文化的學(xué)校才有發(fā)展力。我們提倡教師要做有文化的教育者，讓提煉出的文化精髓內(nèi)化在教育教學(xué)行為上，通過長時(shí)間的積淀，打造出一所處處散發(fā)文化氣息的人文校園。

五、濟(jì)瀆路學(xué)校一年來的工作情況

一年來，學(xué)校堅(jiān)持明確的工作思路：一軸兩翼、一個(gè)亮點(diǎn)、一條主線。即以學(xué)校文化建設(shè)為“軸心”，以師生成人、成才為“兩翼”；一個(gè)亮點(diǎn)即辦好家長學(xué)校；一條主線即一切活動均以“學(xué)生校長助理”競選活動為主線。具體情況如下：

一、堅(jiān)持文化立校，推動學(xué)校文化建設(shè)（一軸）

理念文化：全校師生深入挖掘歷史積淀，提煉文化元素，共同打造學(xué)校文化。經(jīng)過天津教科院王敏勤、省教育學(xué)院任民、浙江大學(xué)管彬全等專家、教授點(diǎn)撥，組織教師廣泛研討，反復(fù)修正，根據(jù)濟(jì)瀆堅(jiān)忍不拔，三隱三伏，穿黃不濁，獨(dú)流入海的品德，提煉出“拼搏、奉獻(xiàn)、包容、求真”的濟(jì)瀆精神作為核心價(jià)值觀，即學(xué)校精神。在此基礎(chǔ)上，確立校訓(xùn)、校風(fēng)、教風(fēng)、學(xué)風(fēng)。校訓(xùn)為：崇道，崇德，崇志。校風(fēng)為：求和、求新、求實(shí)。教風(fēng)為：能方、能圓、能靜。學(xué)風(fēng)為：常行、常思、常樂。由校訓(xùn)派生出“質(zhì)量、特色、品牌”的辦學(xué)目標(biāo)。實(shí)現(xiàn)了辦學(xué)理念與濟(jì)瀆精神相結(jié)合，與一訓(xùn)三風(fēng)相結(jié)合，解決了為什么辦學(xué)、辦什么樣的學(xué)校、怎樣辦學(xué)的問題。

制度文化：學(xué)校所有大型制度，均由教代會、校委會民主表決、集體研究的方式產(chǎn)生，并制定出績效考核、領(lǐng)導(dǎo)代課、月考核、集體生日、領(lǐng)導(dǎo)每周聽課制度等，形成一系列關(guān)注人文的制度文化。

行為文化：為避免出現(xiàn)“理念天上飛，執(zhí)行地上跑”的文化與行為“兩張皮”現(xiàn)象，學(xué)校通過多種形式，充分加強(qiáng)文化滲透：周末大講堂宣講，印發(fā)方案、討論、研究、修正，中層以上干部閉卷、其他教師開卷考文化，以考促學(xué)，以考評學(xué)，人人將文化相關(guān)的文檔、課件放在辦公電腦的桌面上，隨時(shí)學(xué)習(xí)。

物質(zhì)文化：在省內(nèi)外三家公司間反復(fù)選擇、比較，全校師生多次提出修訂意見和建議，現(xiàn)在設(shè)計(jì)方案已確定，正在緊張制做、安裝階段，很快就會實(shí)現(xiàn)圖文在墻上，文化在心中，每一面墻壁會說話，每一棵草木能育人。

班級文化：在學(xué)校文化的大背景下，以班主任為核心的班主任群體，積極帶領(lǐng)師生打造班級文化，提煉班級精神，確立班訓(xùn)、班風(fēng)與學(xué)風(fēng)，設(shè)計(jì)班旗、班徽，制定班級公約，對學(xué)生進(jìn)行班訓(xùn)、班風(fēng)內(nèi)容的提問，課前集體宣誓，讓學(xué)生在參與的過程中明確班級目標(biāo)，約束自身行為，以學(xué)校文化和班級文化的熏陶陪伴學(xué)生成長，實(shí)現(xiàn)文化滲透。

本學(xué)期將努力實(shí)現(xiàn)文化課題化。開展學(xué)校文化建設(shè)研究，制訂年規(guī)劃、月規(guī)劃，確立總課題、子課題研究內(nèi)容、負(fù)責(zé)人，學(xué)部、年級、學(xué)科層層負(fù)責(zé)，人人有任務(wù)。

二、“先育人，后教書”（成人）

我校強(qiáng)調(diào)以人為本，面向全體學(xué)生，不拋棄，不放棄，“先做學(xué)生的父母，再做學(xué)生的老師”，為自己的每一個(gè)學(xué)生驕傲，讓每一個(gè)學(xué)生充滿陽光，快樂成長。堅(jiān)持“教好每一個(gè)孩子，不讓一個(gè)學(xué)生掉隊(duì)”，“先育人，后教書，先成人，后成才”。推行課前“三分鐘育人”，滲透民族精神、傳統(tǒng)美德及理想信念的教育。深入開展“三比四好五主題五個(gè)百”德育系列活動，“三比”即“不比闊氣比志氣，不比聰明比勤奮，不比基礎(chǔ)比發(fā)展”，“四好”為“說好話，寫好字，讀好書，做好人”。在“讀好書”活動中，積極響應(yīng)我市建設(shè)“書香濟(jì)源”的精神，向師生推薦了《道可道、非學(xué)道》、《名可名、非常名》、《提高成績就這么簡單》等書籍，構(gòu)建學(xué)習(xí)型校園。小學(xué)部張小娟老師每年閱讀專業(yè)書籍近百本，撰寫十多萬字的讀書心得，到天津、上海等地學(xué)習(xí)，并與著名語文教學(xué)專家余映潮同課異構(gòu)；苗紅霞等大批教師與學(xué)生同讀一本書，一起寫心得。小學(xué)部開展寫字課，鼓勵(lì)學(xué)生“堂堂正正做人，端端正正寫字”。在學(xué)生中征集成年人不文明行為，刊登在校報(bào)上，對學(xué)生及家長進(jìn)行“說好話”的教育。“五主題”為“自信、誠實(shí)、愛心、寬容、正義感”，每月集中進(jìn)行一個(gè)主題的教育。實(shí)施“五個(gè)百”工程，“背百篇韻文，講百篇故事，記百個(gè)名人，說百條格言，寫百則感言”。該活動將進(jìn)一步深化，如誦讀活動，要從記名人生平到學(xué)名人成長歷程，從學(xué)經(jīng)典表面，到學(xué)做人精髓。

學(xué)校踐行“感恩、善念、寬容、快樂”的第五代核心管理理念，堅(jiān)持“以情感為基礎(chǔ)，以制度為規(guī)范，以目標(biāo)為導(dǎo)向，以過程為關(guān)鍵”的管理原則，建立了“規(guī)范+創(chuàng)新+文化”的濟(jì)瀆管理模式，實(shí)現(xiàn)全方位、立體化管理，做到人人有事管，事事有人管，時(shí)時(shí)有人管。小學(xué)部設(shè)立“文明監(jiān)督崗”，學(xué)生參與管理，在餐廳就餐時(shí)出現(xiàn)千人用餐、鴉雀無聲的場景。提倡“讓標(biāo)準(zhǔn)成為習(xí)慣”，提出口號：每周一、三、五為“市委書記檢查日”，二、四、六為“市長檢查日”，增強(qiáng)習(xí)慣養(yǎng)成的觀念。實(shí)行“常務(wù)副校長輪值制”，四名副校長每月一人輪流行使正校長職責(zé)，創(chuàng)新管理機(jī)制，發(fā)揮主觀能動性與創(chuàng)造的積極性。學(xué)校關(guān)心職工生活，每月為教師過好集體生日，同分蛋糕，共享快樂。

小學(xué)部對寄宿制學(xué)生按年齡段規(guī)劃習(xí)慣培養(yǎng)，每月一主題，做到“習(xí)慣培養(yǎng)循序漸進(jìn)，六年習(xí)慣受益一生”。注重“結(jié)對子，大帶小”，強(qiáng)化互助意識。來校參觀的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)及家長經(jīng)常可以看到清晨的宿舍樓里，一排大姐姐為一群小妹妹梳頭的感人情景，也可以看到餐廳里孩子們互相提醒“食不語”，靜悄悄就餐的場景。初中部結(jié)合每月特點(diǎn)，把二月份定為“自信月”，三月份“愛心月”，四月份“正義月”，五月份“寬容月”，六月份“誠實(shí)月”，每月有主題、有方案、有內(nèi)容。利用飯前三分鐘，推介班級形象大使，帶動全體學(xué)生共同進(jìn)步，共同發(fā)展。

三、推進(jìn)教研教改，打造高效課堂（成才）

打造學(xué)習(xí)型團(tuán)隊(duì)。組織教師學(xué)習(xí)《道可道，非常道》等教育專著，推介專家博客，開展專業(yè)閱讀、專業(yè)學(xué)習(xí)。聘請專家、教授到校講析高效課堂。利用周末大講堂闡述課改理念，定期發(fā)放學(xué)習(xí)資料，要求撰寫讀書筆記，組織教師進(jìn)行課改知識考試。

關(guān)注教師專業(yè)成長。在校報(bào)開辟名師專欄；協(xié)助教師辦個(gè)人畫展；組織教師外出做課，宣傳推介名師。關(guān)注學(xué)生成長。推行問題學(xué)習(xí)法，讓學(xué)生建立錯(cuò)題本，從學(xué)習(xí)錯(cuò)漏、做人紕漏，都記錄下來，有針對性地按錯(cuò)更正。

抓好課堂教學(xué)改革。學(xué)校堅(jiān)定“每一個(gè)孩子都是好的，每一個(gè)學(xué)生都能成才；教好每一個(gè)孩子，不讓一個(gè)學(xué)生掉隊(duì)”的課堂教學(xué)改革理念；確立課堂教學(xué)改革的原則為：以激發(fā)興趣為前提，以培養(yǎng)思維訓(xùn)練為主線，以發(fā)展認(rèn)知能力為重點(diǎn);以優(yōu)化課堂結(jié)構(gòu)為突破口”，打造“先學(xué)后教，當(dāng)堂訓(xùn)練”課堂教學(xué)模式。要求少講多練，課堂要有掌聲、笑聲、辯論聲。學(xué)校領(lǐng)導(dǎo)經(jīng)常隨機(jī)聽推門課，教師們努力創(chuàng)建特色鮮明、優(yōu)質(zhì)高效的課堂教學(xué)模式，已經(jīng)涌現(xiàn)出一批有教改思想的教師、一批有活力的高效課堂。

認(rèn)真開展教研組建設(shè)。英語教研組提煉出“貢獻(xiàn)智慧，收獲品格，實(shí)現(xiàn)成長”的教研精神，開展專題研討、同課異構(gòu)、同課同構(gòu)、“診斷式”教研、“案例式”教研等教研活動。同時(shí)，建立備課組教育資源庫，開展“周二論壇”、英語演講、英語情景劇、英語手抄報(bào)等活動，讓每個(gè)學(xué)生都感受到學(xué)英語的樂趣。

小學(xué)部備課輪流主備，做到心中有“標(biāo)”（課標(biāo)），目中有“人”（學(xué)生），手中有“法”（高效），根據(jù)課堂的生成，適當(dāng)加工，減輕備課壓力，凝聚集體智慧。

高效課堂的初見成效導(dǎo)致今年秋學(xué)段招生學(xué)生爆滿，親戚、朋友、領(lǐng)導(dǎo)托著關(guān)系要把學(xué)生轉(zhuǎn)到我們學(xué)校，老師們也受盡了難為。有人總結(jié)原因是：學(xué)生作業(yè)少，考試成績好，人人有特長，會唱又會跳，知書達(dá)禮能力高。

加大校本課程開發(fā)。本學(xué)期，學(xué)校將以少年宮建設(shè)作為校本課程進(jìn)行開發(fā)，建立足球、器樂、美術(shù)、科技、心理咨詢等專項(xiàng)課程。挖掘教師資源，提倡“不會上選修課的教師不是好教師，沒有特長的學(xué)生不是合格的濟(jì)瀆路學(xué)校學(xué)生”，努力實(shí)現(xiàn)學(xué)生人人有項(xiàng)目，教師個(gè)個(gè)能輔導(dǎo)。濟(jì)源市青少年足球俱樂部已在我校掛牌成立，各班開設(shè)了足球課，100多名學(xué)生已經(jīng)利用暑假提前接受了專業(yè)訓(xùn)練。

四、辦好家長學(xué)校，提高家教素質(zhì)（亮點(diǎn)）

學(xué)校建立起班級、年級、學(xué)部及學(xué)校四級家庭教育指導(dǎo)委員會，教育家長不要把“望子成龍”的迫切愿望寄托于學(xué)校，把責(zé)任推給學(xué)校。

努力辦好“家長學(xué)校”，每周六上好一節(jié)家庭教育互動課程，有教案、有課件、有作業(yè)，組織家長進(jìn)行家庭教育知識的培訓(xùn)、指導(dǎo)、探究。學(xué)校征訂《不輸在家庭教育上》作為專用教材，邀請全國家庭教育專家王健、顧曉鳴等專家到校為家長上課，我校教師也參與到授課隊(duì)伍中。在家長學(xué)校，“家長”變“學(xué)生”，認(rèn)真聽課、參與討論，解決了家庭教育中的難題，素質(zhì)得到提高。同時(shí)，辦好家長學(xué)校校報(bào)《濟(jì)瀆家苑》，免費(fèi)發(fā)放給家長。現(xiàn)已出版6期，累計(jì)發(fā)放13000多份。

每月“教學(xué)開放周”，邀請家長進(jìn)入課堂、餐廳、宿舍，和自己的孩子同桌聽課，更多地了解學(xué)校名項(xiàng)工作。鼓勵(lì)家長通過各種渠道，參與學(xué)校管理，做到家校聯(lián)手，共同努力，實(shí)現(xiàn)學(xué)生的成人、成才，盡好“為國育人”的神圣職責(zé)。

五、學(xué)生校長助理競選系列活動（主線）

堅(jiān)持開展自主教育，學(xué)校的升旗儀式、主題班會、家長會籌備等，全部放手讓學(xué)生組織實(shí)施。“文明監(jiān)督崗”由學(xué)生競聘上崗，輔助完成紀(jì)律、衛(wèi)生、就餐、兩操檢查評比等學(xué)生管理工作。廣播站由學(xué)生自主“采稿、編輯、播音、主持”。“教學(xué)開放周”中，學(xué)生負(fù)責(zé)引導(dǎo)家長聽課、參觀，盡現(xiàn)校園小主人風(fēng)采。

其他學(xué)校開展的“學(xué)生校長助理”競選活動是層層選拔，層層淘汰，千里挑一。我校開展了擴(kuò)充內(nèi)涵的升級版競選活動，重視過程，淡化結(jié)果，每個(gè)學(xué)生參與每輪、每級別的競選，在反復(fù)、反復(fù)、再反復(fù)的過程中，實(shí)現(xiàn)全體學(xué)生綜合素質(zhì)的提升、提升、再提升。提倡時(shí)時(shí)、處處皆鍛煉，把課前三分鐘演講、大課間即興演講、才藝展示、與教師的一次談話、引導(dǎo)家長或客人參觀，都看作是學(xué)生提高素質(zhì)的機(jī)會。鼓勵(lì)教師為學(xué)生開設(shè)專題輔導(dǎo)課，讓每個(gè)學(xué)生每天都有進(jìn)步。

六年級戲曲小明星賀龍同學(xué)，品學(xué)兼優(yōu)，是河南電視臺《梨園春》總決賽銅獎(jiǎng)，節(jié)目簽約演員，經(jīng)常隨團(tuán)到各地演出。宋文鑫同學(xué)多才多藝，參與的舞蹈獲省級金獎(jiǎng)。七年級盧建浩、晉丹丹在歷次展示中脫穎而出，在和市長交流時(shí)，為全校師生爭取到免票參觀濟(jì)瀆廟景點(diǎn)的待遇。在清明掃墓、科技館參觀、課本劇、朗誦賽、六一文藝聯(lián)歡等活動中，學(xué)生們積極參與，表現(xiàn)出色，顯示出優(yōu)良的素質(zhì)，受到家長和社會的好評。

六、問題及困惑

1、學(xué)校文化。學(xué)校文化建設(shè)需進(jìn)一步內(nèi)化為行為，通過系列活動剖析、深化，讓文化滲透在師生的思維中，具體化在行為方式中。

2、家長學(xué)校。家長學(xué)校辦學(xué)后期，部分家長有抵觸情緒，有認(rèn)識的原因，也有教學(xué)安排的因素。本學(xué)期，配合“家長指導(dǎo)委員會進(jìn)班級”活動，會減少大型講座次數(shù)，增加班級學(xué)習(xí)、研討、交流的次數(shù)，注重典型發(fā)言，實(shí)例引導(dǎo)，實(shí)現(xiàn)小班化學(xué)習(xí)。

3、課堂教學(xué)改革。教師、學(xué)生、家長的課堂教學(xué)改革意識已經(jīng)有了很大轉(zhuǎn)變，但離要求仍有距離，有些教師了解課改，但無改革行動，課堂的生動性、主動性仍有欠缺，在負(fù)效-無效-有效-高效的環(huán)節(jié)中，部分課堂僅為有效而已，教學(xué)效率需進(jìn)一步提高。

第五篇：磚廠月經(jīng)營報(bào)告

尊敬的公司領(lǐng)導(dǎo)：

您好，現(xiàn)將磚廠2005年11月份經(jīng)營情況匯報(bào)如下:

一、產(chǎn)量

11月份我們生產(chǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)磚，因維修保養(yǎng)設(shè)備、耗用1天，生產(chǎn)天數(shù)為29天，共生產(chǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)磚224萬塊，磚廠月經(jīng)營報(bào)告。

1-11月份累計(jì)生產(chǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)磚1981.5萬塊，步道磚5萬塊，路邊石4179塊,24空心磚1.3萬塊。

二、銷售

11月實(shí)現(xiàn)銷售收入52.4萬元，較上月有較大幅度的上升,，11月銷售標(biāo)準(zhǔn)磚213萬塊，對內(nèi)銷售205萬塊（呂格莊豬廠：150.2萬塊）對外銷售8萬塊；實(shí)現(xiàn)銷售收入51.8萬元，其中對內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)收入50.2萬元，對外實(shí)現(xiàn)收入1.6萬元。主要原因是呂格莊豬廠的開工，大量的需求標(biāo)準(zhǔn)磚。另外銷售步道磚2100塊，路邊石388塊。

1－11月銷售標(biāo)準(zhǔn)磚1508.7萬塊，實(shí)現(xiàn)銷售收入343.5萬元，其中對內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)收入167.4萬元，對外實(shí)現(xiàn)收入176.1萬元。1-11月份累計(jì)銷售24cm空心磚6564塊，19cm空心磚8432塊，步道磚5.7萬塊，路邊石6540塊。

三、成本及盈利

1、本月單位生產(chǎn)成本0.14元/塊，較上月降低0.01元/塊，主要是本月產(chǎn)量較上月有所上升，單位成本（含管理費(fèi)用）0.18元/塊，比上月上升0.01元/塊，主要是本月運(yùn)費(fèi)比上月有所上升。

2、本月實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤：8.2萬元，現(xiàn)有庫存標(biāo)準(zhǔn)磚535萬塊，正常銷售出去，預(yù)計(jì)利潤6.5萬元。

四、日常管理

1、安全情況：安全是工作的重點(diǎn)，11月16日學(xué)習(xí)了萊陽市建筑業(yè)管理處文件，要求安檢部門嚴(yán)格按照文件規(guī)定做好冬季安全生產(chǎn)的注意事項(xiàng)。安全檢查小組認(rèn)真組織檢查，自查自糾工作中存在的問題，全面的對廠內(nèi)安全生產(chǎn)情況進(jìn)行檢查，尤其針對冬季生產(chǎn)應(yīng)注意的防凍、防滑工作及安全使用電氣設(shè)備是冬季生產(chǎn)應(yīng)注意的“四防”問題，告誡廣大職工無論在生活上還是在工作中，都要時(shí)時(shí)把安全工作放在首位，在保證人身、設(shè)備安全的情況下順利開展工作。對冬季安全用電問題做為重點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了強(qiáng)調(diào)，要求每位住宿舍的員工必須嚴(yán)格遵守安全用電管理規(guī)定，電熱毯私拉亂接，折疊，及無人時(shí)插電熱毯的現(xiàn)象絕不不允許出現(xiàn)，對不能落實(shí)好安全用電管理規(guī)定的宿舍舍長進(jìn)行嚴(yán)厲處分。進(jìn)入冬季摩托車的駕乘轉(zhuǎn)變成安全的點(diǎn)，冬季經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)風(fēng)雪天氣，這需要對行車駕駛者作出更嚴(yán)格的要求，所以我們要求駕車員工必須配帶防護(hù)措施，限速行車，并持有效證件駕車，對無證人員要嚴(yán)格監(jiān)督，絕對不允許駕車上路，發(fā)現(xiàn)一次罰款50元，工作匯報(bào)《磚廠月經(jīng)營報(bào)告》。安全檢查小組成員宋和宏、李凱對車間生產(chǎn)情況進(jìn)行了檢查，檢查中發(fā)現(xiàn)西車間安全標(biāo)志不能按照規(guī)定懸掛，發(fā)現(xiàn)問題后立即組織當(dāng)班班組長梁啟偉進(jìn)行了整改，并對其進(jìn)行了嚴(yán)厲的批評及教育。經(jīng)過長期的對員工進(jìn)行安全宣傳教育，增強(qiáng)了他們的安全意識，取得了可喜的成果。

2、設(shè)備情況：對設(shè)備的保養(yǎng)情況和安全情況每個(gè)星期進(jìn)行一次大檢查，加強(qiáng)機(jī)械設(shè)備的維護(hù)，努力降低設(shè)備的折舊。每月10、20、30號由車間主任帶頭，帶領(lǐng)車間操作人員對設(shè)備的注油點(diǎn)，操作規(guī)程等方面進(jìn)行培訓(xùn)，并進(jìn)行現(xiàn)場演練，月底統(tǒng)一對本月的學(xué)習(xí)內(nèi)容進(jìn)行理論考核和實(shí)際操作，實(shí)行末尾淘汰制。對操作不符合要求的人員不得操作該機(jī)械，轉(zhuǎn)入候補(bǔ)人員，工資下調(diào)一級，由替補(bǔ)頂替，替補(bǔ)人員的工資上調(diào)一級。

3、管理軟件建設(shè)：建立健全了辦公用品費(fèi)用控制實(shí)施意見、物資驗(yàn)收入庫及物資領(lǐng)用發(fā)放、采取各種措施充分調(diào)動各班組、各負(fù)責(zé)人加強(qiáng)成本管理的積極性。

4、學(xué)習(xí)情況：11月28日-30日組織全體員工學(xué)習(xí)了公民安全知識普及讀本中第八部分燃?xì)獍踩谝弧⒍⑷⑺恼逻M(jìn)行了學(xué)習(xí)。并強(qiáng)調(diào)了家庭用氣及火爐的安全注意事項(xiàng)，嚴(yán)防煤氣中毒事件。由于輪碾機(jī)本身的質(zhì)量問題導(dǎo)致的輪碾機(jī)故障，雖不是人為造成，但我們還是要加強(qiáng)職工操作技能，杜絕因操作不當(dāng)造成的故障，耽誤車間生產(chǎn)。12月1日，我們就組織了兩個(gè)班的攪拌機(jī)工學(xué)習(xí)了攪拌機(jī)各部件的結(jié)構(gòu)性能及特點(diǎn)，各處注油點(diǎn)及加注油的類型及數(shù)量，攪拌機(jī)的操作注意事項(xiàng)等。

五、節(jié)能降耗，節(jié)約挖潛

由于磚廠的地面不是硬化地面，每當(dāng)下雨，地面就變得比較松軟，運(yùn)輸車輛的行走給地面留下道道車痕，碼磚的場地變得極不平整，這就需要經(jīng)常用裝載機(jī)修整場地，經(jīng)過幾次的修整，發(fā)現(xiàn)裝載機(jī)的鏟斗磨損比較嚴(yán)重，于是我們把廢舊輪胎割斷，套在鏟斗的下沿，結(jié)果顯示，場地不但變得更加平整，而且又不磨損機(jī)械。

嚴(yán)格控制河沙的質(zhì)量，對于含石子較多的沙堅(jiān)決不收，因含石子較多的河沙平均每日要多消耗2.5方沙，按照每方14.5元計(jì)算，每天我們節(jié)約36.3元，一個(gè)月節(jié)省1000余元。

在不影響工作的情況下，對照明燈的開燈時(shí)間實(shí)行專人管制，嚴(yán)格控制各種機(jī)械的開機(jī)時(shí)間，減少無用工的付出，在11月份產(chǎn)量比10月份產(chǎn)量增加18萬塊標(biāo)準(zhǔn)磚的情況下，我們比上月節(jié)省656度電，安每度電0.64元計(jì)算，本月節(jié)約用電419元。

11月份節(jié)約用電656千瓦時(shí)，節(jié)約河沙75方，合計(jì)減少支出1419元。

六、下月計(jì)劃

1、加強(qiáng)衛(wèi)生的檢查力度，搞好環(huán)境衛(wèi)生，進(jìn)行文明建設(shè)。

2、加強(qiáng)安全宣傳，增強(qiáng)安全意識，提高產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量。

3、實(shí)行創(chuàng)新精神，節(jié)約挖潛，控制各項(xiàng)支出，降低生產(chǎn)成本。